SoBo Football

Heisman Watch: Oct. 20

2009-10-20T23:03:00.003-04:00

By Nate Sandstrom

Due to my work schedule I've never watched fewer college games than I have in the current season. So maybe that's why it seems there has been less Heisman talk that usual.

Before sophomore Alabama RB Mark Ingram's showcase game on Saturday night, I couldn't have told you who was the favorite, but in case you're interested, here's a round-up of some preliminary polling.

• At Heisman Pundit, Ingram, the nation's #4 ypg rusher, has a narrow lead over Florida senior QB Tim Tebow in a two-man race.

• A similar tight race at the top of the ESPN poll, though Notre Dame Jr. QB Jimmy Clausen is running a slightly closer third (don't ask me how Clausen is #3).

• Look for an updated Heisman Watch from USA Today tomorrow; though don't expect a result that's much difference.

Those who've followed my personal preferences for Heisman candidates over the years know I love stat stuffers (think Jordy Nelson, Michael Crabtree, Kevin Smith) as much as most voters like winning QB's, so here are a few guys I'd ask you to make note of:

• Chris Owusu, Soph., WR/KR, Stanford. Owusu is averaging more than 23 yards a play each time he touches the ball, including 3 kick return touchdowns. Not that he's purely a special teams guy, he's topped 80 yards receiving and hauled in a pass TD in the past two games at Oregon State and at Arizona.

• Freddie Barnes, Sr., WR, Bowling Green. In the past two weeks Barnes has posted 32 catches for 438 yards and 6 TDs! Unfortunately, those big performances have come against Kent State and Ball State. Against Missouri and Boise he was held out of the end zone with 14 catches for 94 yards, though he did score twice in BG's opening Thursday upset of Troy. Barnes is not a legit Heisman candidate because of his performance against the toughest team on the schedule, but after reaching 85-882-8 in six games, his year is worth watching.

• O'Brien Schofield, Sr., DE, Wisconsin. O'Brien Schofield told a Madison reporter that he can't be blocked, and after watching his performance against Iowa, one of the best OL's in the country, he is about right (2 TFLs and a fum rec). Schofield has helped make the Badgers D the best it's been since the 12-1 2006 team. Along the way he's made a nation-leading 16.5 TFL (-82 yards) as well as notching 6.5 sacks. Defensive players have a tough time winning the Heisman, especially on a team bound to lose 3-4 games, but make sure you have a chance to watch Schofield before the year's end.

Nate's NFL Power Rankings: Post-Week 6

2009-10-20T22:19:00.002-04:00

It's probably happened before, but I can't recall a season where the difference between the top and bottom teams are so wide. It seems there's at least two double-digit spreads each weekend; and this week, for example, four road teams are favored by a touchdown or more.

Rankings like these are of course pretty worthless in October; for example, my rankings at this time last year had Washington, Buffalo and Tampa in the Top 6.

The exercise has however taught me that the Redskins are good for one thing — deciding which of the worst teams are worser.

1. New Orleans (5-0). Giant thrashing earns them top spot.
2. Minnesota (6-0). Vikings are running with the Twins' Metrodome magic.
3. Indianapolis (5-0). Have won 14 straight in the regular season.
4. Denver (6-0). Mike Nolan has created a dominant defense.
5. New England (4-2). Back to the 59-0 scores that made them gamblers' favorites.
6. N.Y. Giants (5-1). Bad loss, but it's early.
7. Atlanta (4-1). Best start in franchise history.
8. Green Bay (3-2). Aaron Rogers may be MVP playing behind this O-Line.
9. Chicago (3-2). Any WSCR callers want Orton back? Too late.
10. Cincinnati (4-2). Next three could make year: @ Chi, Bal, @ Pit.
11. Pittsburgh (4-2). Favored to knock of Vikes this weekend.
12. Baltimore (3-3). Acting a little TOO calm during L streak for my liking.
13. Dallas (3-2). Two plays from 5-0.
14. San Francisco (3-2). Road test ahead @ Houston then @ Indy.
15. Arizona (3-2). Passing game still amazing.
16. N.Y. Jets (3-3). Season could go south quickly.
17. San Diego (2-3). Lowest I've had them in years.
18. Houston (3-3). Secondary likely keeps them out of playoffs.
19. Miami (2-3). Henne could still wind up best of Flacco-Ryan class.
20. Seattle (2-4). Hawks must cut down on costly turnovers (10 in six games).
21. Philadelphia (3-2). Wins are over Car, TB, KC. Wash next?
22. Jacksonville (3-3) Currently hold final spot in AFC playoff race.
23. Buffalo (2-4). Will Jets win spur a resurgance?
24. Carolina (2-3). Fire John Fox? Get real Panthers.
25. Oakland (2-4). Think I've picked Raiders wrong ATS every week but one.
26. Cleveland (1-5). That they are this high tells you how bad the worst are.
27. Kansas City (1-5). Beat 'Skins on the road.
28. Detroit (1-5). Beat 'Skins at home.
29. Tennessee (0-6). Don't get a chance to beat the 'Skins.
30. Washington (2-4). See above and below.
31. St. Louis (0-6). Lost to the 'Skins by 2.
32. Tampa Bay (0-6). Lost to the 'Skins by 3.

Mark's World

2009-10-19T19:54:00.002-04:00

The NFL is changing and I don't like it. Call me an old fuddy duddy if you like. I don't care. The league is offense crazy. We all know the league tweaked the rules after the Patriots manhandled the Colts in the playoffs a few years ago. Now they have adjusted the rules to protect a magical orb surrounding quarterbacks knees. (I don't have any specific evidence, but I'm sure this really only applies to a certain few QBs)

I know there's nothing that can be done and the league is loving the offense, but does anyone else have the feeling that the NFL is going through what MLB went though when Sosa and McGwire and Bonds exploded? I'm not saying that there is obviously rampant steroids in the NFL. OK, there is obviously rampant steroids in the NFL. But I'm not blaming it for the offensive explosion. I'm blaming the refs and the league directive that pushes them to watch over defenses like a nagging girlfriend.

It just bothers me that just a few years ago elite QBs contending for the MVP were throwing maybe 30 TDs and now nobody is batting an eye at 40 TD seasons. I'm yawning every time I see a two-minute drill. Hell, if there's two minutes left in the game and the team with the ball is down by one score, I'm almost certain they're going to score.

With that said, here are a few rule changes I'd like to see implemented. Not all of them are directed at curing the viral offense, but its my blog and I don't have to make sense:

1) Holding on a running play should be 5 yards, not 10. I understand why holding on a passing play, which hypothetically prevents a sack is a 10 yard penalty. But rarely, if ever, would you see a running hold prevent a massive yardage loss

2) No penalty for hitting a QB's helmet. Maybe 5 yards, but not a 15 yarder/automatic first down. My problem with this rule is that I don't see the danger. At least with the Brady knee protection you can point to an instance that it took a player out. Every hands to the helmet of a QB I've ever seen has been incidental. Plus, the QB has a helmet. Plus, every other player on the field is getting their head knocked off. Besides, if there's a glaringly obvious punch to the head, you can still throw a roughing the passer penalty or a unsportsmanlike penalty.

3) There should never ever be a 1st and 5. It's just stupid. Move the ball five yards and leave it first and ten.

4) If an offense is backed up inside their own ten and commits a penalty like a personal foul, instead of just backing it up half the distance, they should add the missing yardage to the other end of the down. For instance, if you are on the five and commit a personal foul on 2nd and 10, it should become 3rd and 22.5. (I can't take full credit for this one. My coworker came up with it and I like it)

Nate's Lockdowns for Sunday

2009-09-27T11:49:00.002-04:00

Mark is dead on below. Washington 23-10, Atlanta 20-14 and I'll take Green Bay 31-14 to cover and go over 41.

Mark's Week 4 Locks

2009-09-27T10:33:00.002-04:00

Baltimore (-13.5) vs. Browns: Call me crazy, but I don't think the Ravens D is as bad as it has looked the first two weeks. But the main reason I'm looking for the Ravens to cover the spread is that Cleveland can't stop the rush. They've been out-rushed by an average of 134 yards/game. And Baltimore can run and run in a variety of ways. Also, it doesn't help that Baltimore is like a kid who just got his license. Now that they can score and play offense, they're opening it up. I have a feeling Baltimore won't be ashamed to run the score up a little. Not to mention, Cleveland hasn't covered the spread in their last 10 games on grass. Baltimore 34, Browns 13

Atlanta (+4) at New England: It's simple. I don't think the Patriots are a good team. I've watched some of their preseason and both games against Buffalo and New York. This scheme is just not going to work. Now, maybe this is the week that Belichek will wake up and get back to playing sane football, but even if - their D can't tackle. Look for Michael Turner to run all day over a sloppy defense. Atlanta 28, new England 24

Washington (-6.5) at Detroit: Matt Stafford is throwing 50% completions. And he's got a 1-5 TD/INT ratio. Detroit has lost by 14 and 18 so far this season. If Campbell doesn't turn the ball over and Washington stays patient, they'll win this by double digits. Washington 24, Detroit 13

Nate's Week 4 Sat. Lockdown

2009-09-26T07:14:00.001-04:00

Late for work, just wanted to make it official:

USC (-45) vs. Washington State
Illinois (+450) at Ohio State

Nate's Lockdown: Week 3

2009-09-18T18:49:00.004-04:00

By Nate Sandstrom

Well, I should have been set up to be ahead for weeks no matter what on my money line picks, but then Leodis McKelvin, one of my favorite players, at least until this past Monday, had to fumble the ball. And thus my Buffalo +550 pick went down in flames. Mark had the nerve to point out that the ensuing New England TD gave me the over, but breaking even on the game is little solace.

So I finished 1-3 ATS last weekend to drop my to an abysmal 2-4 start as well as 0-1 on the Money Line. Combine that start with the abbreviated explanations I'm about to give due to the fact I think I'll have worked more than 35 hours from Friday-Sunday and I don't blame you for staying away. Of course if you do I'll pull a 2-0. No upset special this week.

St. Louis (+10) at Washington: An offense this bad should never be laying 10 points.
Pick: Washington 13 St. Louis 10

Green Bay (-9.5) at Cincinnati: Last week made things crystal clear that the Bengals still suck.
Pick: Green Bay 27 Cincinnati 10

Redskins React Week 1: NY Giants 23 Washington 17

2009-09-16T00:26:00.002-04:00

By Nate Sandstrom

I'm adding a new feature this year to Redskins coverage this year that I'm calling Redskins React. Most weeks it will be up on Monday morning but I had to DVR the game and didn't finish watching it until Monday morning so here we are.

Let me start by saying this: The #1 text I recevied from 'skins fans during the game was simply "Campbell sucks." Had I not been working, I probably would've replied "I know."

Campbell was awful, turning the ball over twice, eating sacks and not leading the "O" to a touchdown until the game was over for all intents and purposes. And yes, the offensive line also looked as bad as you remember from the second half of last year. Portis ran into the line for a 1-yard gain about a dozen times just like last year. The Redskins traveled to the Meadowlands and got their butts handed to them despite a close final score, just like last year. The Washington Examiner game coverage expresses a similar sentiment.

So too does this Washington Times piece, which appropriately points out the 'Skins pursued both Cutler and Sanchez in the off-season. The most interesting part of the article was this section:

The most defining and damaging play, however, happened when Osi Umenyiora, the Giants' All-Pro defensive end who missed all of last season with a knee injury, stripped the ball from Campbell, recovered and returned it 37 yards for a touchdown to give New York a 17-0 lead with 2:11 left in the first half.

The Giants also took away the deep pass but, said Zorn afterward of his quarterback, "He's got to get rid of the ball better."

Campbell disagreed. "Everyone says I held on to the ball too long, so I guess I'm supposed to throw it into coverage," he said sardonically.

To which I say, "Sometimes, yes." Campbell doesn't throw many picks but he doesn't throw many TDs either. Fans have taken Gibbs and Zorn to task for not throwing down field enough in recent years, but perhaps the blame lays at Campbell's feet for always checking off to shorter patterns.

Campbell goes on to the Post's Jason Reid about how it is just one game. And he is calling others out for making mistakes, Reid writes.

The only calling out I noticed though was center Casey Rabach throwing up his arms in a WTF motion after the Giants showed blitz on a 3rd and 8 and Campbell audibled to a hand off to Ladell Betts that lost yardage. Couldn't find anyone else writing about this but I rewound it twice and Rabach definitely barked at Campbell.

So, if you didn't watch the game and only saw the score know this: Washington's first TD came on a fake field goal. The other came against prevent D while the team was trailing by 13 with less than 2 minutes to go. The one field goal came after a tipped ball was intercepted by Hall who returned it inside the NYG 20 yet the offense did nothing again.

Also of note:
-- The oft-played, over-hyped clip of Brandon Jacobs running over LaRon Landry before being brought down anyway in last year's opener may have sparked a rivalry between the two. Landry delivered a late hit out of bounds against Jacobs early and the two later were in a shoving match. Here's a summary of the fallout.

-- The 'Skins opened as 10.5-point favorites at home against the Rams on Sunday. They've dropped to 10-point favorites at most books since. Remember, St. Louis got one of its only two wins at FedEx last year.

Update

2009-09-13T12:13:00.001-04:00

Cassell isn't starting. So double up on the lockdown

Fat Billick

2009-09-13T10:18:00.004-04:00

I know this probably isn't a major revelation to you Terps fans, but it just hit me last week: Ralph Friedgen is Brian Billick.

He's somehow managed to get himself a long leash through his early success, but since then he's failed to develop a quarterback or even really an exciting system. For a mediocre ACC team, the Terps have had their fair share of talent: Shawn Merriman, Vernon Davis, Dominique Foxworth, EJ Henderson... and even a starting NFL QB in Shaun Hill. Yet somehow, all that talent has been wasted. I'm not saying the Terps should be a guaranteed bowl pick every year. I'm just saying they've wildly underwhelmed and mostly because they have consistently failed to develop a quarterback or a system. In today's NCAA football, you have to have a clearly defined system. And if you put the right QB in that system, it doesn't matter if he can't throw a football 50 yards on the run.

It's clearly time for Fat Billick to go. Bring in someone with some new ideas. Look what happened to the Ravens just one year after cutting ties with the original.

Unfortunately, we all know this isn't going to happen. Even if they get rid of the Fridge, they've guaranteed his assistant the job (or at least a couple million in buyout), so it's likely the Terps are going to continue to force their boring wannabe NFL system down our throats for quite a while longer.

Week 1 Lockdown

2009-09-13T09:46:00.005-04:00

Well, I'm 2-0 in my head this weekend, so let's hope that carry's over to actually documented predictions.

1) Houston (-4.5) vs. NY Jets: Call this the steal of the week. I just don't like starting that rookie QB on the road. To me, Sanchez is a lock to be a bust. If you saw last night's USC/OSU game, you know that USC can make even a freshman QB look good. Sanchez just doesn't have the stuff. Let alone the stuff to win his rookie game on the road. And the Texans are only giving up 4.5 at home!? Are you kidding me? Lock it up. Look for Steve Slaton to run right at (and over) Vernon Gholston. The Jets are already missing Shawn Ellis and Calvin Pace. Word is Gholston isn't looking any better under Rex Ryan's tutelage. The Texans will control the game and protect the ball all day and Sanchez will turn it over twice. Houston 24 New York 13

2) Philadelphia (-2.5) at Carolina: This is another line I don't get. I know they're on the road, but I like the Eagles to continue last year's momentum early this year. I think things will fall apart for them later in the year when McCrybaby throws a fit over Vick's playing time. But I am shocked at how little of a distraction Vick has been so far. I didn't expect him to be T.O. redux, but there is no drama going on already. I also expect Carolina to continue their momentum from last year. This regime is getting old. They need new blood in there. Delhomme/Smith/Fox just don't seem invigorated. Not to mention, Philly is 8-3 against the spread in their last 11 NFC games. And 12-5 in their last 17 road games. Gotta like those numbers. Philly 28 Carolina 15

3) Baltimore (-12) vs. Kansas City: I know it's risky to take this big a number and call it a lock, but I love Baltimore and no team has looked more focused and ready to go than the Ravens this preseason. With Kansas City's QB situation, I like the Ravens to feast early and then sit on the ball all day. I hear Cassell is getting the start. Bad move. If he's not mobile, he could be in for a long day. The Ravens have never beaten the Chiefs in Baltimore. That will change and change big today. Ravens 27 Chiefs 9

Upset Special:
I desperately wanted to take the Skins to stun the Giants for this, but if you look at the trends, there's no way I can justify that pick. So I'm taking the Dolphins to top the Falcons. At +110, I'll take an AFC Playoff team over an NFC playoff team. The Dolphins lack the true talent that they Falcons have, but I like the smart coaching staff of Sparano and the safe QB play of Pennington. Coaches and Quarterbacks. Coaches and Quarterbacks. We say it all the time. Miami 21, Atlana 17.

Lockdown: Week 2

2009-09-11T23:19:00.003-04:00

By Nate Sandstrom

Wel1, starting 1-1 isn't great, but if you look around the Web at what the other prognasticators did in Week 1 I'll take essentially breaking even. I'll also take solace that I went 6-4 ATS in my college picks pool -- hopefully a sign I was drawing on the right sources and analyzing correctly in the preseason.

First, a moment to say, WTF Colorado? As I write this they are trailing Toledo 37-10. I can see losing to either in-state rival Colorado State or traditional tough-out at home Toledo, but to lose to BOTH? Coach Hawkins may be in trouble, after all this is Division 1 football.

On to the picks....

Vaderbilt at LSU (-14.5)

Vanderbilt had a story-book year last season, while LSU's year was more like a terrifying nightmare. The vaunted Tiger D was gashed for 30 ppg down the stretch and again struggled at times in the opener at Washington. The performance seems to have infuriated the boys of Baton Rouge though, and I expect good focus from their top-notch recruits in the home opener against the Commodores.

Vandy stuffed the box score last week, but don't be fooled. Western Carolina is among the worst teams in FCS.

How many times will LSU be favored at home over Vandy by this few points in your lifetime. You'll be able to count it on both hands.

Pick: LSU 35 Vanderbilt 10

Purdue at Oregon (-13)

People will be jumping off the Oregon band wagon quickly after the overrated Ducks lost to Boise. Meanwhile, Toledo's apparent win over Colorado may add more credence to the Boilers' three-TD win over the Rockets last weekend.

However, Purdue only outgained Toledo by 42 yards. And while Oregon was dominated at Boise in the first half, a few different bounces and they could've come away with the win.

And think about it this way: Purdue is starting a new QB with a new coach at one of the toughest road venues in the country. The host is going to be mad as hell after losing that game at Boise and the notoriety that followed the Blount punch. And despite the OT game these squads played in West Lafayette last year, the Ducks won the yardage count by almost 100, they just finished -1 in TO.

Pick: Oregon 41 Purdue 14

Denver at Cincinnati (-4.5)

Interestingly enough, when the lines opened for Week 1 so many months ago the Broncos opened 2.5-point favorites. In the meantime, new Denver Coach Josh McDaniels has pissed off everyone he's glanced at while the Bengals are a team on the mend after a few disastrous years. Begals QB Palmer has declared himself 100%, for whatever that's worth, but more importantly the battered Bengal O-Line is showing signs of life and I'll go ahead and call for Chris Henry to haul in a pair of TD's in the start of what could be a bounce-back year in Cincy.

Pick: Cincinnati 30 Denver 13

Upset Special/Lock #4: Buffalo Bills (+550) at New England (over 47.5)

New England seems to be the consensus favorite in the NFL this season, and I'm not hating, I like them a lot too. But I think that secondary is weak, Belichick may be developing a Mike Martz-like aversion to running and as hyped as Tom Brady is, they may be a bit overconfident.

And as skeptical as everyone is about T.O., I expect him to have a big year in Buffalo. Trent Edwards may not be the greatest, but between Owens, fellow deep threat Lee Evans and speedster Roscoe Parrish, the Bills will expose the New England corners.

Brady will come out firing as well, but if they wind up passing 50 times Dick Jauron will be ready for it, and the Bills will be able to outscore the Pats.

Pick: Buffalo 41 New England 34

Nate's 2009 NFL Picks: Pack to Have Last Laugh

2009-09-10T16:15:00.005-04:00

By Nate Sandstrom

Well, people have been asking me for weeks who I like in the NFL this year and I've finally run through enough depth charts, schedules and other prognastications to come up with the following prediction: The Pack over the Chargers in the Super Bowl.

I'm hardly going out on a limb picking the Chargers to take the AFC (as I do nearly every season) but I'm sure I'll raise eyebrows by calling for a team coming off a 6-10 season to win the Super Bowl. Here's my reasoning:

-- The Packers' 6-10 mark was deceiving as they lost seven games by four points or less! Meanwhile, five of their six wins were by 10+ points. They also outyardaged their opponents by 17 ypg.
-- The Packers will face the #31-rated schedule in the NFL this year, including a soft start that will allow the defense to adjust to new DC Dom Capers' 3-4 scheme.
-- The defense is mostly healthy and has depth and added talent in a pair of first-round picks. Even if new NT Raji misses the opener with his ankle injury, I expect him to make a big impact this year.
-- Ryan Grant was in camp all year instead of worrying about a new contract and I expect him to improve production and help open up things even more for the ultra-talented Aaron Rogers.

So, there's my case for the green and gold, who I've pegged to best their former franchise QB Brett Favre and the Vikings in the NFC Championship in Minneapolis. Then, they should be able to contain Sproles and the Chargers enough to bring the Lombardi back to Green Bay.

Other predictions:
-- The Seattle Seahawks will pull the biggest turnaround in the league this year, improving from 4-12 to 10-6. As long as the offensive line doesn't suffer too many injuries the passing game should be vastly improved with full seasons from Nate Burleson, Deion Branch and new face TJ Houshmandzadeh. New linebacker Aaron Curry should also add good speed to the D creating havoc against both the run and pass.

-- The Denver Broncos will be a total disaster as Coach Josh McRabbit'sFoot learns he is not Bill Belichick. The entire state of Colorado will beg Coach Shanahan to come back as the squad drops from 8-8 to 2-14. Young Josh better at least beat the Chiefs once or use his insider knowledge to upset the Pats or this team may wind up this year's version of last year's Lions.
-- Speaking of the Lions, mark it down that Matt Stafford turns the ball over 15 times before he reaches the 5 TD plateau. Still, the Lions will pull the season's biggest upset when they win at Minnesota on Nov. 15.
-- Speaking of rookie QBs, the New York Jets are my runner-up to Denver for biggest drop in the standings. I have them dropping from 9-7 to 4-12. I don't see what everyone else does in this defense and I think the Ravens defense will do a lot better without Rex Ryan than Ryan will do without the Ravens. Sanchez will be better than Stafford, but will still struggle.
-- I've got the Vikings finishing with the best regular season record; I probably would've had them close to that even without Favre. The defensive line will wreak havoc, the receivers will improve from last year and AP is just awesome. Still, it's the Vikings and just like the Cubs, they always blow it.

That's it. Read below to see where I have your team, then chuckle and watch it all play out. Enjoy the season!

AFC W-L Con Div
1. San Diego 12-4 11-1 5-1
2. New England 12-4 8-4 4-2
3. Indianapolis 11-5 9-3 3-3
4. Pittsburgh 11-5 8-4 4-2
5. Baltimore 10-6 8-4 5-1
6. Houston 9-7 7-5 4-2
7. Tennessee 9-7 6-6 3-3
8. Cincinnati 8-8 7-5 3-3
9. Jacksonville 8-8 6-6 2-4
10. Buffalo 8-8 5-7 2-4
11. Miami 7-9 4-8 3-3
12. Oakland 5-11 4-8 3-3
13. N.Y. Jets 4-12 4-8 3-3
14. Kansas City 4-12 4-8 3-3
15. Cleveland 4-12 3-9 0-6
16. Denver 2-14 2-10 1-5

NFC W-L Con Div
1. Minnesota 13-3 10-2 4-2
2. N.Y. Giants 11-5 7-5 5-1
3. Seattle 10-6 7-5 4-2
4. New Orleans 9-7 8-4 4-2
5. Green Bay 11-5 10-2 4-2
6. Philadelphia 11-5 7-5 3-3
7. Chicago 10-6 8-4 3-3
8. Arizona 9-7 7-5 4-2
9. Carolina 8-8 6-6 2-4
10. Washington 8-8 5-7 1-5
11. Atlanta 7-9 5-7 3-3
12. Dallas 7-9 4-8 3-3
13. Tampa Bay 6-10 5-7 3-3
14. San Francisco 5-11 4-8 3-3
15. St. Louis 3-13 2-10 1-5
16. Detroit 3-13 2-10 1-5

Playoffs Predictions
Wild Card Round:
#6 Houston 37 #3 Indianapolis 35
#4 Pittsburgh 17 #5 Baltimore 9
#6 Philadelphia 31 #3 Seattle 12
#5 Green Bay 41 #4 New Orleans 31

Divisional Round:
#1 San Diego 28 #6 Houston 14
#2 New England 30 #4 Pittsburgh 17
#1 Minnesota 28 #6 Philadelphia 27
#5 Green Bay 34 #2 N.Y. Giants 17

Conference Championships
#1 San Diego 20 #2 New England 17
#5 Green Bay 27 #1 Minnesota 24

Super Bowl
Green Bay 31 San Diego 27

River Hill/Wilde Lake preview

2009-09-10T15:34:00.002-04:00

Our good friend Andrew Conrad has posted a look-ahead to a game tomorrow that could decide the Howard County Championship. He's also conveniently written up a run down on the 14 previous meetings in one of the county's best rivalries.

If I didn't have to work tomorrow night, I would definitely be in the seats for that one. Both schools lost their biggest offensive contributors from the previous season, but MaxPreps lists River Hill as #2 in the state while Wilde Lake checks in at #12.

Meanwhile, in Baltimore County, there's another tilt between perennial powers as #22 Hereford hosts #11 Eastern Tech. Also, #4 Gilman's battle with D.C.-area #1 DeMatha may be moved to Saturday because of the sloppy weather.

--Nate

High School Highlights: First weekend

2009-09-09T18:56:00.002-04:00

By Nate Sandstrom

I was stuck working at the store this past Friday so I missed most of the high school action, but I thought I would add to the list of places letting you know about new Arundel RB Joseph Blackwell.

Blackwell transferred from Archbishop Spalding and rushed for 174 yards in scored four TDs in his debut, keying a 34-27 win for the Sun's #3 Arundel over #6 Old Mill last Friday. Below is a YouTube higlight reel he assembled from his frosh/soph years.

Among the big ones to look forward to this weekend .....

-- D.C.-area powerhouse and top-ranked team in Maryalnd DeMatha comes to Baltimore to face-off against top-ranked Baltimore team Gilman.

-- A pair of Howard County teams that appeared in the state finals last year will collide on Friday when defending 2A Champ River Hill puts its 28-game win streak on the line when it travels to last year's 3A runner-up Wilde Lake.

My rankings, thoughts and other fallout from college football's first weekend

2009-09-09T11:03:00.004-04:00

By Nate Sandstrom

It may be hard to believe, but college football's second week is less than 32 hours away from kicking off. Lots of good stuff to talk about this weekend, but I'm choosing to start with what was the most fun to watch: Miami's 38-34 win at Florida State.

First off, kudos to whoever decided to move this game back to Labor Day. This was the best rivalry in college football when I first fell in love with the game but it has definitely lost some significance in recent years. Getting the game back in prime time on it's own should help both schools.

As for the game itself, it looks like Jacory Harris may bring back the QB, to "QB U." He kept his cool after a bad bounce interception and despite being forced to play catch up on the road time and time again, impressing the Miami Herald's Greg Cote as much as me.

I'm coming away from the game saying both offenses are pretty good, but the 'Noles upcoming trip to BYU on Sept. 19 and Miami's tilt against Georiga Tech next Thursday may show that the 38-34 score is a sign both defenses are below their schools' standards.

Speaking of top QB effort's, how about Washington's Jake Locker's performance in a 31-23 loss to national title contender LSU. Locker threw for 321 and added another 50 on the ground in the Huskies' upset bid. It looks like new coach Steve Sarkisian will put a more competitive team on the field this year, even if a tough schedule prevents them from bowl eligibility.

Meanwhile, the LSU defense (the one that gave up 30 points per game in their last four in 2008) insist they are better than they played in today's Times-Picayune. Could be a bad sign for Vanderbilt.

If you don't love Greg Paulus, you not want to turn on the mute button any time Syracuse is on TV. Props to 'cuse for nearly pulling the upset against the Gophers this past weekend, but I thought the ESPN crew gave a little too much of the credit to the former Duke PG now Syracuse QB. Syracuse had a good run where they scored 17 unanswered points but much it was through short passing and runs. Paulus finished 19-31 for 167 and tossed a game-defining INT in OT in the loss.

The UTEP-Buffalo game featured yet another example of why they need to lighten up on the unsportsmanlike conduct penalties. Trailing 23-17 late in the fourth quarter, UTEP hit a long TD pass that appeared to tie the game. The Miners were then flagged for excessive celebration; however, it also turned out they had been called for a hold on the play. Both penalties were marked off and UTEP was marched back beyond having a legit shot of scoring at the end. Coach Price was not happy.

As bad as I look for taking Oklahoma to win the national title after their loss Saturday, Cal made me look good for calling them national runner-up. The Bears absolutely shredded the Terps as bad as the score looked. At least I would say scoring 52 points wouldn't indicate being "perplexed."

Wisconsin's big problem last year was QB play, and Badger fans like me hope that the work of Scott Tolzien and Curt Phillips in a 28-20 win against NIU on Saturday indicate there will be fewer problems this year. Tolzien threw for 257 and Phillips carried the ball 4 times for 34 yards. The ground attack was not as good however, as Brown and Clay combined for just 94 yards on 29 carries. Overall, the Badgers jumped out to a 28-6 lead before Northern Illinois got some late scores to make it close.

In case you didn't notice, Illinois apparently has no defense and Missouri doesn't miss Daniel, Maclin, et al.

Not going to get too much into the Heisman Race after one week other than to note that Bradford is probably out due to his injury. We'll see if BYU QB Max Hall can enter the race with a big day against Florida State in two weeks.

Now, for my rankings:

FBS:
1. Florida (1-0). Favorites do just fine in the equivalent of preseason game.
2. California (1-0). Scored 52 against Terps, what will they do to E. Wash.?
3. Texas (1-0). Scored 40+ in 12 of last 15 now. 30+ in 19 of last 21.
4. USC (1-0). About to send 105,000 OSU fans home crying.
5. Alabama (1-0). Made several mental mistakes and still won by 10.
6. Oklahoma State (1-0). Showed persistence in putting away UGa.
7. BYU (1-0). Bradford or not, a hell of a win.
8. Boise State (1-0). Meet Oregon's biggest fans rest of year.
9. Mississippi (1-0). Piled it on Memphis late.
10. Oklahoma (0-1). Definitely hoping Bradford back for Miami game (10/3).
11. Penn State (1-0). Should've beat Akron by more.
12. Notre Dame (1-0). How 'bout that Irish defense?
13. LSU (1-0). Jefferson had very impressive 4th quarter drive.
14. TCU (0-0). If Will & Mary held UVa. to 12, what will TCU do?
15. Georgia Tech (1-0). Face brutal ACC stretch early.
16. Ohio State (1-0). Being AP #8 reflects lazy voting.
17. Miami (1-0). Can Jacory be the next Kelly/Kosar/Vinny/Walsh/Torretta?
18. Georgia (0-1). Under radar is where UnderDawgs like to be
19. Virginia Tech (0-1). May lose 3 of first 7, but still part of ACC hunt.
20. Florida State (0-1). Will still win division.
21. Cincinnati (1-0). Coach Kelly is great.
22. Arkansas (1-0). How quick till media forgives/forgets on Petrino?
23. Tennessee (1-0). Kiffin could ruin this yet.
24. Texas Tech (1-0). Just one more week 'til game with Horns.
25. Baylor (1-0). #25 in the nation, #5 in the Big 12 South.

FCS:
1. Montana (1-0). Upset alert at UC-Davis Saturday.
2. Villanova (1-0). Improbable upset over FBS Temple earns Mayor's Cup.
3. Richmond (1-0). Got a not quite as good FBS team in Duke.
4. Southern Illinois (0-1). Three TO's kill upset bid at Marshall.
5. Northern Iowa (0-1). Oh so close to beating Iowa, moving to #1.
6. William & Mary (1-0). Need to avoid let down this weekend.
7. Appalachian State (0-1). Host McNeese Sat. in FCS GOY.
8. Elon (1-0). Could be their year in Southern.
9. James Madison (0-0). How will they replace 11 graduating starters?
10. Hofstra (1-0). Colonial dark horse.
11. McNeese State (1-0). Less than impressive in ASU tune-up.
12. Jacksonville State (0-1). After GT, Fla. St., things will get easier.
13. Eastern Illinois (1-0). Made statement against Illinois St.
14. Holy Cross (1-0). Don't want to look past Sacred Heart.
15. South Carolina State (1-0). Key Int earns MEAC bragging rights.
16. Massachusetts (0-1). Gave good fight against Wildcats.
17. Central Arkansas (0-1). I expect big things from this squad.
18. North Dakota State (0-1). Played Iowa St. close til 4Q.
19. Wofford (0-1). Won't face many any other D as good as USF was.
20. Harvard (0-0). Biding time 'til Holy Cross game next weekend.
21. Grambling State (0-1). Outyardaged S.C. State by 106 in loss.
22. San Diego (1-0). Toreros need big wins for at-large playoff bid.
23. New Hampshire (1-0). Ball State will test top-notch DL.
24. Weber State (0-1). Five INT's against Wyoming cost them win.
25. Eastern Washington (1-0). From W. Oregon to Cal? Goo.

Lockdown: Return of the Lockdown

2009-09-04T23:35:00.003-04:00

By Nate Sandstrom

We're back for more cash, and I'm kicking myself for not kicking off the year on Thursday. I recall thinking to myself, "North Texas is getting 16 1/2 points! What's the money line? Got to be worth a bet." Then I got stuck at work all day, and made no move to call what would've been one of the picks of the year in taking a team coming off a 2-10 year over a team coming off an 11-2 year. Oh well, I have it down in my magazine.

Any ways, I'm not doing an upset special this weeks since I had one I didn't call. Here's the only two I'm rolling out for tomorrow:

Illinois (-6.5) vs. Missouri, in St. Louis

If you glanced at my college football preview, you see that I have Missouri falling all the way down after a pair of exciting seasons, while I have Illinois coming back nearly as strong as their Rose Bowl season two years ago.

Usually in rivalry games I like to take points anytime it's 4 or more, but I hear the Illini look great and graduations have hit Missouri very hard. Illinois easily could have won the past two games in this series as well, so I'm calling this the break through.

Prediction: Illinois 41 Missouri 20

Alabama (-6.5) vs. Virginia Tech, in Atlanta

Speaking of 6.5-point favorites on a neutral site, I'm also picking Alabama. Virginia Tech is young and talented, but after the loss of Darren Evans I think it will take a few weeks for them to catch up.

Prediction: Alabama 20 Virginia Tech 6

College Football Preview/Picks ... in brief

2009-09-04T11:56:00.005-04:00

By Nate Sandstrom

Well, college football got underway last night and goes off full bore on Saturday. Below, I’ve tossed one man’s projections for this year’s results by going through game-by-game on the schedule.

Due to having two crazy weeks, most of this is in summary form. You’ll find projections for each bowl game and regular season standings. In the standings, teams in bold are projected to be bowl teams, and teams with a (z) after their name are projected to win their conference championship games. Championship games are included in the conference record, but not standings (i.e. Colorado is listed as 5-4 ‘cause I have them beating Nebraska to earn the North Division bid but then losing to Oklahoma in the Big 12 Championship).

In the FCS section, an (x) denotes a team earning an automatic bid into the playoffs and a (y) indicates a team earning an at-large bid.

I think I’m off to an OK start as I nailed 16.5-point underdog North Texas winning at Ball State last night as well as Boise State beating an overrated Oregon team that has four new starters on the OL. However, I have to humbly admit I had no idea that the South Carolina defense would be able to so thoroughly dominate the Wolfpack.

Some other humble projections:

n Oklahoma will finally shake off their sudden reputation for choking and defeat Cal in Pasadena to win the National Championship. I’m also picking Penn State to get revenge against USC in the Rose Bowl, Florida to best Florida State for a second straight game in the Orange bowl, Boise State to edge BYU in a non-BCS team Fiesta Bowl and an overconfident Ole Miss to narrowly escape a Rutgers upset bid in the Sugar Bowl.

n My picks for top surprise teams are Colorado to win the Big 12 North, Arkansas to go from a losing season to the Chick-Fil-A Bowl, Illinois to bounce back from a losing year to play New Year’s Day on the strength of a second-straight win in Columbus and San Diego State to go from 2-10 to a bowl game.

n Top flops include Oregon settling for the Poinsettia Bowl and Michigan not really turning it around that much to finish 6-6 and land in the Motor City Bowl. I also have Texas losing to both Oklahoma and Oklahoma State; I wouldn’t call it a flop but those in Austin may. Staying in the Big 12, I have both Kansas and Missouri failing to qualify for bowl games.

n Speaking of Missouri, they are among two teams I’m picking to lose games against teams they defeated by more than 50 points a year ago. After defeating Nevada 69-17 last year, I have a Chase Daniel and Jeremy Maclin-less Mizzou squad falling to the Wolfpack. In FCS ball, I’ve got Hofstra turning the tables on James Madison, a team they lost to 56-0 last year, on their way to a playoff bid.

OK, look at them now, laugh at me later.

Bowl Picks:

Championship: Oklahoma vs. California
Rose: Penn State vs. USC
Orange: Florida State vs. Florida
Fiesta: Boise State vs. BYU
Sugar: Mississippi vs. Rutgers
Capital One: Illinois vs. Alabama
Gator: Notre Dame vs. Georgia Tech
Cotton: Oklahoma State vs. Georgia
Outback: Ohio State vs. LSU
Insight: Iowa vs. Colorado
Chick-fil-A: Virginia Tech vs. Arkansas
Liberty: Southern Miss vs. Tennessee
Sun: Texas Tech vs. Arizona
Holiday: Texas vs. Stanford
Alamo: Wisconsin vs. Nebraska
Music City: North Carolina vs. Vanderbilt
Meineke: West Virginia vs. Clemson
Champs Sports: Michigan State vs. Miami
Poinsettia: Utah vs. Oregon
PapaJohns.com: Pittsburgh vs. Auburn
Emerald: N.C. State vs. Oregon State
Independence: Houston vs. Kansas State
GMAC: Western Michigan vs. Tulsa
Hawaii: Nevada vs. Minnesota
Las Vegas: TCU vs. UCLA
Humanitarian: Fresno State vs. UNLV
Armed Forces: Texas El-Paso vs. San Diego State
Motor City: Central Michigan vs. Michigan
Texas: Navy vs. Baylor
New Orleans: Troy vs. Memphis
New Mexico: Akron vs. Air Force
St. Petersburg: East Carolina vs. South Florida
International: Ohio vs. Cincinnati
Eagle Bank: Marshall vs. Wake Forest

Predicted Regular Season Standings

ACC Atlantic Conf Overall
1. Florida State-z 6-3 8-5
2. N.C. State 5-3 8-4
3. Clemson 5-3 7-5
4. Boston College 3-5 5-7
5. Wake Forest 3-5 6-6
6. Maryland 2-6 4-8

ACC Coastal Conf Overall
1. Georgia Tech 7-2 10-3
2. Virginia Tech 6-2 9-3
3. Miami 5-3 7-5
4. North Carolina 3-5 7-5
5. Virginia 2-6 4-8
6. Duke 2-6 3-9

Big East Conf Overall
1. Rutgers 6-1 11-1
2. Pittsburgh 5-2 9-3
3. West Virginia 5-2 9-3
4. South Florida 4-3 8-4
5. Cincinnati 4-3 6-6
6. Connecticut 4-3 5-7
7. Louisville 1-6 4-8
8. Syracuse 0-8 1-11

Big Ten Conf Overal
1. Penn State 7-1 11-1
2. Illinois 6-2 10-2
3. Ohio State 6-2 9-3
4. Wisconsin 5-3 9-3
5. Michigan St. 5-3 8-4
6. Iowa 4-4 8-4
7. Minnesota 4-4 7-5
8. Michigan 3-5 6-6
9. Northwestern 2-6 6-6
10. Purdue 2-6 5-8
11. Indiana 0-8 2-10

Big 12 North Conf Overall
1. Colorado 5-4 8-5
2. Nebraska 5-3 8-4
3. Kansas St. 4-4 8-4
4. Kansas 2-6 5-7
5. Missouri 1-7 3-9
6. Iowa State 1-7 4-8

Big 12 South Conf Overall
1. Oklahoma-z 8-0 13-0
2. Oklahoma St. 7-1 11-1
3. Texas 6-2 10-2
4. Texas Tech 4-4 7-5
5. Baylor 4-4 8-4
6. Texas A&M 1-7 4-8

C-USA East Conf Overall
1. So. Mississippi-z 8-1 12-1
2. Memphis 5-3 6-6
3. Marshall 4-4 6-6
4. East Carolina 4-4 6-6
5. UA-Birmingham 3-5 4-8
6. Central Florida 3-5 5-7

C-USA West Conf Overall
1. Texas-El Paso 7-2 9-4
2. Houston 6-2 9-3
3. Tulsa 4-4 6-6
4. SMU 3-5 6-6
5. Rice 3-5 3-9
6. Tulane 1-7 2-10

Independents Overall
1. Notre Dame 10-2
2. Navy 8-5
3. Army 5-7

MAC East Conf Overall
1. Kent State 5-4 6-7
2. Buffalo 5-3 5-7
3. Ohio U. 5-3 8-4
4. Akron 4-4 7-5
5. Temple 3-5 5-7
6. Bowling Green 2-6 2-10
7. Miami 1-7 1-11

MAC West
1. C. Michigan-z 9-0 11-2
2 W. Michigan 7-1 8-4
3. Toledo 4-4 5-7
4. No. Illinois 4-4 6-6
5. Ball State 3-5 5-7
6. E. Michigan 1-7 1-11

Mountain West Conf Overall
1. BYU 8-0 11-1
2. TCU 7-1 11-1
3. Utah 6-2 9-3
4. Air Force 4-4 6-6
5. San Diego St. 3-5 6-6
6. UNLV 3-5 6-6
7. Colorado St. 3-5 5-7
8. Wyoming 2-6 2-10
9. New Mexico 0-8 1-11

Pac-10 Conf Overall
1. California 9-0 12-0
2. USC 8-1 11-1
3. Stanford 5-4 7-5
4. Arizona 5-4 7-5
5. Oregon 5-4 7-5
6. Oregon State 4-5 6-6
7. UCLA 4-5 6-6
8. Arizona State 3-6 5-7
9. Washington 2-7 3-9
10. Washington St. 0-9 0-12

SEC East Conf Overall
1. Georgia 7-2 10-3
2. Florida 7-1 11-1
3. Tennessee 4-4 7-5
4. Vanderbilt 3-5 6-6
5. South Carolina 2-6 4-8
6. Kentuky 1-7 4-8

SEC West Conf Overall
1. Ole Miss-z 8-1 12-1
2. Alabama 7-1 11-1
3. LSU 4-4 8-4
4. Arkansas 3-5 7-5
5. Auburn 3-5 6-6
6. Miss. State 0-8 1-11

Sun Belt Conf Overall
1. Troy 8-0 10-2
2. UL-Monroe 5-3 6-6
3. Arkansas St. 5-3 6-6
4. Florida Atlantic 5-3 5-7
5. Middle Tennessee 5-3 5-7
6. Florida Int’l 4-4 4-8
7. North Texas 2-6 3-9
8. W. Kentucky 1-7 1-11
9. Louisiana-Laff. 1-7 2-10

WAC Conf Overall
1. Boise State 8-0 13-0
2. Nevada 7-1 10-2
3. Fresno State 6-2 8-4
4. La. Tech 4-4 5-7
5 San Jose St. 4-4 5-7
6. Hawaii 3-5 5-8
7. Utah State 3-5 4-8
8. Idaho 1-7 1-11
9. New Mexico St. 0-8 1-12

Big Sky Conf Overall
1. Montana-x 8-0 10-1
2. E. Washington-y 6-2 8-3
3. Weber State 6-2 8-3
4. Montana St. 5-3 7-4
5. No. Arizona 4-4 5-6
6. Portland St. 3-5 4-7
7. No. Colorado 2-6 2-9
8. Sacramento St. 1-7 2-9
9. Idaho St. 1-7 2-9

Big South Conf Overall
1. Gardner-Webb 5-1 9-2
2. Stony Brook 5-1 7-4
3. Liberty 4-2 6-5
4. Coastal Carolina 4-2 7-4
5. VMI 2-4 4-7
6. Presbyterian 1-5 1-10
7. Charleston So. 0-6 2-9

Colonial North Conf Overall
1. Hofstra-y 7-1 9-2
2. New Hampshire-y 6-2 8-3
3. Maine 4-4 5-6
4. Massachusetts 3-5 5-6
5. Rhode Island 2-6 4-7
6. Northeastern 1-7 1-10

Colonial South Conf Overall
1. Richmond-x 7-1 9-2
2. Villanova-y 6-2 8-3
3. William & Mary 5-3 7-4
4. James Madison 4-4 6-5
5. Delaware 3-5 5-6
6. Towson 0-8 0-11

Great West Conf Overall
1. UC-Davis-y 4-0 8-3
2. Cal Poly 3-1 4-6
3. South Dakota 1-3 5-5
4. North Dakota 1-3 4-7
5. Southern Utah 1-3 3-8

Independents Overall
1. Savannah St. 8-3
2. Bryant 5-6
3. N.C. Central 5-6
4. Old Dominion 3-8

Ivy Conf Overall
1. Pennsylvania 6-1 7-3
2. Harvard 6-1 8-2
3. Brown 4-3 4-6
4. Princeton 4-3 4-6
5. Columbia 3-4 4-6
6. Cornell 2-5 3-7
7. Yale 2-5 4-6
8. Dartmouth 1-6 1-9

MEAC Conf Overall
1. S. Carolina St.-x 8-0 9-2
2. Florida A&M 6-2 8-3
3. Bethune-Cook. 5-3 8-3
4. Morgan St. 5-3 7- 4
5. Norfolk St. 4-4 6-5
6. Hampton 4-4 7-4
7. Howard 2-6 3-8
8. Delaware St. 2-6 3-8
9. N.C. A & T 1-7 2-9
10. Winston-Salem x-x 2-9

Missouri Valley Conf Overall
1. Southern Illinois-x 7-1 9-2
2. North Dakota St.-y 6-2 8-3
3. Youngstown St. 6-2 8-3
4. Northern Iowa 6-2 8-3
5. Western Illinois 3-5 5-6
6. South Dakota St. 3-5 5-6
7. Illinois State 2-6 4-7
8. Missouri St. 2-6 2-9
9. Indiana St. 0-8 0-11

Northeast Conf Overall
1. Albany 6-1 8-3
2. Robert Morris 6-1 8-3
3. Sacred Heart 4-3 6-4
4. Monmouth 4-3 6-5
5. Duquense 3-4 4-7
6. C. Conn. State 3-4 6-5
7. Wagner 1-6 3-8
8. St. Francis 0-7 1-10

Ohio Valley Conf Overall
1. Jacksonville St.-x 7-1 8-3
2. UT-Martin 6-2 8-3
3. E. Kentucky 5-3 6-5
4. Murray St. 4-4 6-5
5. Eastern Illinois 4-4 6-5
6. Tennessee Tech 4-4 5-6
7. Austin Peay 3-5 3-7
8. Tennessee St. 2-6 2-9
9. SE Missouri St. 0-8 1-10

Patriot Conf Overall
1. Holy Cross-x 5-1 10-1
2. Lafayette 5-1 9-2
3. Colgate 4-2 8-3
4. Bucknell 2-4 6-5
5. Fordham 2-4 4-7
6. Lehigh 2-4 3-8
7. Georgetown 1-5 2-9

Pioneer Conf Overall
1. San Diego 7-1 10-1
2. Jacksonville 6-2 8-3
3. Dayton 6-2 7-3
4. Morehead St. 5-3 6-5
5. Butler 5-3 8-3
6. Marist 5-3 6-5
7. Drake 3-5 5-6
8. Valparaiso 1-7 4-7
9. Davidson 1-7 2-8
10. Campbell 0-8 1-10

Southern Conf Overall
1. Appalachian St.-x 7-1 9-2
2. Wofford 6-2 7-4
3. Elon-y 6-2 8-3
4. Georgia So. 5-3 6-5
5. Furman 5-3 6-5
6. Citadel 4-4 6-5
7. Samford 2-6 4-7
8. Chattanooga 1-7 3-8
9. W. Carolina 0-8 0-11

Southland Conf Overall
1. C. Arkansas-x 6-1 10-2
2. McNeese St.-y 6-1 8-3
3. N’western St. 4-3 5-6
4. Texas St. 3-4 5-6
5. S.F. Austin 3-4 5-6
6. Sam Houston St. 3-4 4-7
7. SE Louisiana 2-5 4-7
8. Nicholls St. 1-6 2-9

SWAC East Conf Overall
1. Jackson St. 7-1 8-2
2. Alabama A&M 5-3 6-5
3. Alabama St. 2-5 5-6
4. Alcorn St. 1-7 1-9
5. Miss Valley St. 1-7 3-8

SWAC West
1. Prairie View 7-1 8-2
2. Grambling St. 7-1 9-2
3. Southern 4-3 7-4
4. Ark.-Pine Bluff 3-5 6-5
5. Texas Southern 2-5 2-8

Opening Night!

2009-09-03T05:02:00.002-04:00

It's one of my favorite nights of the year — opening Thursday night for college football season. I stayed up until 2 am this morning finishing up my regular season picks, will get to bowl match-ups and I-AA playoffs today and then dig in for the ESPN double header tonight.

Ol' ESPN opens this year's feast with South Carolina visiting N.C. State at 7 p.m. followed by a clash between highly touted teams as Oregon travels to Boise State at 10:30 p.m.

You've also got Indiana hosting Eastern Kentucky on Big Ten Network, and once I have all that digested, I'll post my final picks for National Champs, surprises, busts, etc.

But first it's off to work at the golf course this morning, so I got to run. Happy football season!

--Nate

Non-Favre reaction and this fall...

2009-08-18T22:34:00.002-04:00

Hi everyone,

We are about to ramp up for the season and among news we are planning to add a new fantasy sports column by two former colleagues that I think will be both funny and informative.

I guess as an on-again/off-again Vikings fan I should have some kind of Favre reaction but it's not more than meh. I bet Favre, Jackson and Rosenfels all see action in at least six games so I'm not getting too flustered by who is QB. I'm worried about who is blocking for them. (And at the moment I'm far more worried by the latest Phil Humber botch).

I've been pouring over college previews from Sporting News, Athlon and Phil Steele over the last two months and am preparing to unleash my annual preview/picks that are slated to be released Sept. 1 and Sept. 2 (Last year's claim to fame: Called for Michigan to finish 3-9; Last year's blunder: Auburn to win SEC West).

NFL Preview will be out the following week after I can spend my vacation week poring over NFL stats and depth charts.

We'll also freshen up in general over the next two weeks, so get ready to start keeping up with SoBo, including our winning picks on Lockdown.

Looking forward to Sept. 3! (Get your season started with South Carolina-N.C. State)
--Nate

NFL: Challenge us and you shalt continue peeing in cups

2009-06-09T21:53:00.004-04:00

By Nate Sandstrom

This story in the Star-Tribune has the latest in Pro-Bowl Vikings DT Pat and Kevin Williams's court challenge to the NFL's decision to suspend them for 4 games for a banned substance.

At isssue is that the Williamseses took a weight loss supplement that could mask the use of steroids, not that the NFL is officially accusing them of using steroids. However, due to its masking ability, it is banned.

Now that you have the main issue down, the interesting twist this story takes today is that the Williamseseses' attorney says the NFL is singling the Williamseseses out for me tests since they challenged the suspension. From the article:

Ginsberg alleged that the increased testing amounts to retaliation against the defensive tackles and violates both the NFL's policy against performance-enhancing drugs and state law. He said he's still trying to get the testing records to be sure, but he said it appears they have each been tested more than six times since the Pro Bowl and that the frequency has increased.

"They seem to be testing them about three times a month if not more, which is far in excess of what the testing policies allow. ... It's not being done randomly. Kevin and Pat are being singled out," Ginsberg said.

NFL spokesman Greg Aiello denied that the league is retaliating against the Williamses, but declined to comment on how often they've been tested.

So is this purely punitive? Is the NFL trying to bust them with steroids to get them to drop their challenge the current 4-game suspension that would begin in Week 1? Stay tuned.

Less than one hour to the official release of the Phil Steele College Football Preview

2009-06-08T23:12:00.004-04:00

By Nate Sandstrom

Just in time for the hours I will be spending on planes next week, my favorite stat-packed college football preview officially hits the racks tomorrow.

Apparently though, you can already find Phil Steele's National College Football several places, as my cousin's boyfriend already sent me a message today about Steele pegging our UW Badgers sixth in the Big Ten (although they are his #38 team talent-wise nationally).

I'll be picking up a copy from Rite-Aid after work tomorrow, but in case you can't wait he has added much more new content to his Web site this year, including a daily blog and Facebook and MySpace pages. He is also releasing a PDF file each day for each Top 40 team. Tonight he has LSU, who is picking to find improved QB play and improve on last year's disastrous 8-5 season.

Steele's even more detailed regional magazines, which include FCS teams, are slated to go to press next week.

Yay, college football!

I am so smart: s-m-r-t

2009-06-04T23:01:00.002-04:00

Al Davis had Lane Kiffin dead on. Read the latest debacle here. Meyer will have the last laugh.

If I don't get money, kids with Downs Syndrome don't either

2009-06-04T22:47:00.002-04:00

Read more Brian Waters' about douche-baggery here.

Redskins '09 roster: About the same as '08?

2009-06-01T16:56:00.004-04:00

By Nate Sandstrom

With RT Jon Jansen being cut on Friday (more on this below) and the calendar flipping to June 1st, the Washington Times' Ryan O'Halloran put out a mock 53-man roster for the upcoming season. Check it out here.

In case you don't want to bother clicking, it can be summed up as pretty much the same. Yes, they've added Haynesworth, brought back Dockery and drafted Orakpo (who is projected at LB here but some expect to play DE), but it otherwise appears that there will be little difference from last year's squad on most downs.

For that reason, unless the OL has some kind of major turnaround, this seems like an average team that will continue to be between 6-10 and 10-6 depending on how injuries (their own and other teams') unfold along the schedule and how lucky bounces affect the turnover margin.

As for Jansen, he seemed to be a good guy who had a decent career that could've been better were it not for some major injuries. He signed with the Lions today, perhaps not suprising since he is a Michigan native and alum.

I'm not sure if Lions GM Martin Mayhew still has Redskins' connections that affected this deal; the article doesn't mention it. I also recall Jansen getting in a fight with the Lions during a 1999 playoff game, but I couldn't find anything to back up that memory.

Minnesota Vikings: Free agent weekend #1

2009-03-03T20:50:00.004-05:00

"Say Goodbye to these, Vikings!"; or, "How I Stopped Worrying About Not Signing Housh and Focused on Players that Matter."

By Nate Sandstrom

Who's in: Sage Rosenfels
Who's out: Darren Sharper, Vinny Ciurciu, Matt Birk, Maurice Hicks
Who's back: Jim Kleinsasser
Up in the air: Jay Cutler

Pretty much all talk about the Vikings this season begins and ends with the quarterback position. That was briefly interrupted when the Vikings chased — but failed to sign — an old, whiny receiver in T.J. Houshmandzadeh. Relax angry Viking fans, Seattle overpaid while Sidney Rice is entering his third year: in which many NFL receivers have had breakout season.

Houshmandzadeh said he was impressed by the way the Seahawks treated his family. I guess Vikings fans won't be privileged enough to have the Housh kids running up and down the Metrodome aisles. Fortunately, they will also miss out on paying $40 mil to a receiver who had three fewer TD catches than Bernard Berrian last year. Plus, Sidney Rice is in his third year, the one where receivers with promise typically break out in the NFL.

So let's get back to who will be throwing him the ball. Denver insists they are not trading Cutler, so I'm going to take them at their word and continue to promise that Josh McDaniels will be a disaster there.

That leaves them with newly acquired Sage Rosenfels, who was just signed to a two-year $9M deal. Rosenfels is slated to compete with Tavaris Jackson, who was 2-4 as a starter last year, including playoffs, and never-played-a-down USC alum John David Booty.

I think Sage will win the job. He can throw the deep ball and will be dangerous with Bernard Berrian. Turnovers have always been a problem for him, but he can't give the ball away more than Frerotte — and he was 8-3 as a starter.

Even if Sage falters, I saw signs of promise in Tavaris late last year. I was almost apoplectic when the Vikings took him in the second round three years ago, but I thought he improved his accuracy and gained more confidence in pulling down the ball and running — until things fell apart in the playoffs.

Matt Birk is also now gone. I can't believe Minnesota couldn't match a thee-year, $12 mil deal. Childress said Birk wanted a change of scenery. First I heard of that, but OK. My favorite response came from a fan who simply said: "Screw you, Major Dad!"

So, who are the replacements for Birk? These guys, I guess. One fan on the Star Trib site had this optimistic take:

Last time this happened?

Remember???......4 time Pro Bowl Center...7 years on the team, long time starter...very popular in the community...left in free agency for … read more big money Tampa Bay..we all thought..how do ya replace Jeff Christy??...whos this Matt Birk kid??....its part of the evolution fo a team....very grateful for Matty B and will keep patronizing his restaurant, however I also saw a guy loosing many one on one run blocks against younger linemen...he probably has 2 years in the tank...he might as well make the extra cash and we might as well groom the next Pro Bowl center.....next!

Possible? Yes. Probable? No. Birk is a big loss.

Still, at least the defense is in tact ... so far. The hearing for the Williamses's steroid controversy is June 15.

Baltimore Ravens Free Agency Week 1

2009-03-03T20:47:00.003-05:00

There was no way for the Ravens to win this offseason. With Jason Brown, Bart Scott, Ray Lewis, Terrell Suggs, Jim Leohnard, Matt Stover, and Lorenzo Neal becoming free agents, the team was bound to struggle to improve. Each of those players contributed significantly to the team last year.

Going into the offseason, the general consensus was that the Ravens would be smart to make the following moves
- Let Leohnard walk
- Keep Suggs as priority #1
- Make a fair, but firm offer to Ray
- Make an offer to Scott, but if you can't keep him, no big loss considering the young linebackers on the team
- Try your hardest to keep Brown without breaking the bank

I would have considered Brown priority 2b. Keeping Ray or Scott being 2a and Suggs being #1.

Considering these priorities, I'd give the team a C. Suggs is still here, but only thanks to a second straight season of tag. Scott is gone (and they nearly overpaid to keep him) and we don't have Ray. Meanwhile, Brown ran to the Rams. And judging by his words on the way out, the Ravens never made a serious effort to keep him.

The Ray saga is hardly the Ravens' fault. He's acted like a childish debutaunte who has long dreamed of being courted in free agency. But still, the Ravens have to take some blame for the way it's unfolded. And by all accounts, they raised their offer from $12M in gaurantees to $17M even though he's not received a single offer of note from another team.

So the only move of signficance the team has made so far is to sign Dominique Foxworth to a substantial contract for a middle-of-the-pack player. (A contract by the way that is sure to aggravate Ray and further complicate those negotiations) But fine, if the Ravens want to build depth at corner, so be it. At first glance, this contract seems suspect at best. However, I'll give it time before I declare it foolish.

Now, they have Matt Birk in town and are expected to make an offer to him to replace Brown. This move could end up being very smart. Based on last year's success with free agents like Neal and Anderson, I would have high hopes for Birk. And presumably, the contract will be for less than Brown was demanding.

I like the restraint the Ravens have shown so far in not giving away too much money to keep older players. But was there restraint in signing Foxworth on day 1 when there were no known suitors offering similar contracts?

Hey, at least they're not giving away $41M guaranteed to a 28 year old defensive tackle whose never played a complete season.

Washington Redskins: Free-agent weekend #1

2009-03-02T16:31:00.004-05:00

Mo' money, mo' money, mo' money
By Nate Sandstrom

Jim Zorn and Jason Taylor hold a #1 jersey last summer. One is the approximate number of sacks Taylor made in his time as a Redskins.

Who's back: DeAngelo Hall
Who's in: Albert Haynesworth, Derrick Dockery
Who's out: Jason Taylor, Shawn Springs, Marcus Washington

I'm choosing to highlight the Redskins' opening free-agency weekend with this photo of Jason Taylor to keep optimistic Redskins fans well-grounded after the Albert Haynesworth signing. Just a reminder that although their massive cash transactions occasionally work out (i.e. London Fletcher) they more often wind up like busts such as Deion Sanders, Bruce Smith, Jeff George, Brandon Lloyd, T.J. Duckett, Dana Stubblefield and now Jason Taylor.

The 'skins gave up $8.5 million, the #44 pick in the upcoming draft and a sixth-round pick next year in exchange for Taylor's 3.5 sacks on a last-place team.

Wasn't Haynesworth supposed to free-up Taylor for sacks? Oh well. Washington was the #4 yardage and #6 scoring defense in the NFL last year.

So why did the Redskins sign a $100 million contract and a $54 million deal with DeAngelo Hall to improve what was one of the best in the NFL last year? Meanwhile, the team has done little to address their biggest problems:

1) Possibly the worst kicking game in the league (last in net punt average and last in field goal accuracy)
2) An offense that was one of two in the league that failed to post 3o points in a single game and an offensive line that couldn't give Campbell time or provide a push for Portis.

They did bring back Derrick Dockery, who was cast aside by the Bills after he signed for big money there. I'm hoping Dockery will be effective this year as Bills cast-away Jim Leonhard was for the Ravens last year.

I will miss Springs and Washington, but both have been injured so much lately that I understand the decision to let them go.

Locally, the overall reaction to the signings seem to be positive, but forgive me for not feeling more enthusiastic about the opening weekend of free agency. (See forums at the Hogs, and the Post for more).

Lockdown: Updated count

2009-01-14T12:32:00.002-05:00

By Nate Sandstrom

After blowing the Eagles-Giants game big-time last week, it looks like I am hanging up the "lock" predictions for the season (though I'll take the points in my pool in both games this weekend). I'm not sure if Mark will have any picks this weekend.

It looks like we both finish up for the year on the 100 per game system that avoids exotic bets (i.e. parlays, teasers, etc.) We both fought off mid-season swoons, with Mark closing with eight straight wins ATS and me finishing 9-2-1 ATS.

Here's a look at the final count for those keeping count at home:

ATS
Nate: 27-21-2 (+390)
Mark: 17-10 (+600)

Money line upsets:
Nate: 4-11 (+170)
Mark: 1-5 (-190)

Hey, you can't picks like these for free everywhere.

So, what else is in the news?

You'll probably hear even less from me than you have been in the less month into March, I'm switching to full basketball, hockey and baseball mode. See you at spring practices and the draft!

Oh, heck, one more prediction. Josh McDaniels were be nearly as bad a hire for Denver as Gene Chizik was Iowa State (FYI: Chizik went 5-19, 2-14 in the Big 12 and lost to an FCS team during his two-year tenure in Ames).

Playoff Lockdown

2009-01-10T11:02:00.002-05:00

By Nate Sandstrom

Philadelphia at New York Giants (-4)

Philadelphia seems to be a trendy pick all of a sudden, but before you join the herd let's think about the following items:

1) Despite wins at Minnesota last week and in their last trip to the Meadowlands, the Eagles have often struggled on the road this season (see loss at Washington, tie at Cincy).

2) As mentioned, the Eagles D held New York in check last time they played, but the Giants have had the edge overall in recent meetings, winning the previous three.

3) Minnesota outgained the Eagles by 80 yards on the ground, and they abandoned the rush attack early.

Sorry phickle Philly phans, but your roller coaster season is about to plunge. Feel free to resume your calls for Andy Reid's head, Donovan McNabb's head and start crying again.

The Giants will get their ground game going early and be able to hit slant routes to battle the blitz. It may not be a full-fledged blowout, but I expect New York to be in control the whole time.

Pick: New York 27 Phialdelphia 13

Final Top 25 poll

2009-01-09T19:23:00.003-05:00

By Nate Sandstrom

Another college football season is in the books and overall I rate it unspectacular in comparison with some recent years. Maybe that's partly because I've never been an avid follower of the Big 12 South or the SEC and those two divisions/conferences were involved in the biggest games each Saturday this season.

I think the greatest moment is probably Michael Crabtree's catch over Texas that cost the 'Horns a shot at a national title. Other moments/points I will always remember were Ole Miss stopping Tim Tebow on a fourth and one to preserve an upset, Georgia Tech gashing Georgia's defense in third quarter of that rivalry game, that tipped Allen Everidge interception that Michigan ran back for a TD (which began the Badgers' lost season), how awful the Clemson offense was in the season opener agaist Alabama and Pittsburgh stopping West Virginia's final drive to win the Backyard Brawl for the second straight year.

Last but certainly not least is the way in which Utah sliced Alabama's defense on their first drive in the Sugar Bowl and cruised to a 21-0 lead. I was so impressed with the win, which I essentially count as a road game, that I am joining 16 other AP writers in putting the Utes #1.

For all the teeth-nashing about not having a college football playoff, this is only the second time I remember ranking a team #1 that did not get a share of the national title (1994 Penn State is the other).

I'm still not going to yell for a playoff, but if something playoff-like is installed, here's what I would like to see:

Play all bowl games as normal, and make sure they are all done by New Year's Day (there were only like five New Year's game this year, it was awful). Then select four teams that won their bowl games and have a mini-playoff. It would still be done by Jan. 15, before spring semester begins at most schools.

For what it is (or isn't) worth, here are my final rankings (W-L, pvs rank):
1) Utah (13-0, 10). Most impressive of any of the BCS teams in their bowl game.
2) Florida (12-1, 1). Clutch takeaways give Gators official title.
3) USC (12-1, 5). Also a dominating bowl performance, but it was a home game.
4) Texas (12-1, 3). McCoy should've been Heisman; led another clutch drive in Fiesta Bowl.
5) Oklahoma (12-2, 2). You can't get inside the six twice and come away with no points.
6) Alabama (12-2, 4). #1 rankings seems like a long time ago.
7) TCU (11-2, 14). Knocks Boise from ranks of undefeated and came closest to beating Utah.
8) Boise State (12-1, 8). Another great year, including win at Oregon.
9) Penn State (11-2, 6). What if Iowa missed that kick and PSU's secondary was in title game?
10) Ohio State (10-3, 9). Think Bucks are looking forward to hosting USC next Sept.?
11) Texas Tech (11-2, 7). Disappointing Cotton Bowl, but at least they've kept their coach.
12) Oregon (10-3, 13). Just another 10-win season in Eugene.
13) Georgia (10-3, 16). Despite rocky times, end their season with a New Year's win.
14) Mississippi (9-4, 17). Beat Florida, Texas Tech and LSU in banner year.
15) Oklahoma State (9-4, 11). A young team that will try to avoid step back next year.
16) Virginia Tech (10-4, 23). At least they snapped ACC's 8-game BCS losing streak.
17) Cincinnati (11-3, 12). Wish they could have that Orange Bowl over.
18) Oregon State (9-4, 21). Three losses to teams in my Top 12.
19) Pittsburgh (9-4, 19). Bowl game shutout a sour end.
20) Iowa (9-4, 20). May have been best team in the Big Ten.
21) California (9-4, NR). Good season in what could have been a down year.
22) Missouri (10-4, NR). Second straight year with double-digit wins, but still underacheived.
23) Nebraska (9-4, NR). Maybe there is a 'D' in Lincoln.
24) LSU (8-5, NR). Peach, er, Chik-Fil-A bowl provides some redemption.
25) Georgia Tech (9-4, 15). Despite blowout bowl loss, Paul Johnson led Jackets to a great year.

Now, with 2008 in the books, we can all look to 2009. NationalChamps.net, the Atlanta Journal-Constitution and SI.com already give you a look — and it's about the same as this year.

Lockdown: Year End Bonus

2008-12-28T08:32:00.003-05:00

By Nate Sandstrom

There are usually few weeks harder to predict NFL lines than Week 17. There's always an interesting set of factors determining which teams will be motivated to get into the playoffs, knock a team out, carry momentum into next year and so on.

This week, there's no shortage of such match-ups and there's been crazy line movement. Yet, I am about to put a year-high four games on lockdown, with the addition of a great upset special. Am I overconfident because I'm on an 8-1-1 run? Yes. But here we go anyway.

Chicago at Houston (-2.5)

The Bears have eeked out back-to-back overtime wins on the first possession of the extra period. Despite that, they've been outgained by more than 100 yards in each contest. Their luck runs out today in Houston, where the Texans are 11-4 the last two seasons.

Pick: Houston 24 Chicago 13

N.Y. Giants at Minnesota (-7)

My dad has insisted all week that the Vikings will choke like they do every year. I submit to you that their choke was last week, when they lost at home to Atlanta because of four lost fumbles. A key fumble late also did the Vikings in against Tampa Bay, otherwise the Purple may be riding an eight game win streak. Expect the Vikes to hold onto the ball today and the Giants to give minimum effort.

Pick: Minnesota 35 N.Y. Giants 16

Clevleand at Pittsburgh (-11)

Cleveland hasn't scored an offensive touchdown their last five games. The Steelers love to run up the score when they can. This will be ugly.

Pick: Pittsburgh 31 Cleveland 6

Washington at San Francisco (-3)

The Redskins banded together and gave their best effort since Week 5 in upsetting the Eagles 10-3 last week. Yes, a 10-3 win was their best effort. In fact, the 'Skins are averaging just 10 ppg in their last seven. Fat and happy after a win and with nothing to play for, the will get stomped in San Fran by Mike Singeltary and the scrappy Niners.

Pick: San Francisco 27 Washington 13

Upset sepcial: Seattle (+250) at Arizona

Other than a home win over the Rams, the Cardinals have been beaten down the last four weeks. They will be motivated to head into the playoffs on a positive note. However, they'll have to do so against one of the best 4-11 teams in history (Insult/praise? I'm not sure). After being outyardaged by 100+ virtually the entire season, they have turned things around going 3-0 ATS and 2-1 SU in their last three. Seneca Wallace and Mo Morris are taking the offense in the right direction and they should continue to gash the beleaguered Cards D. Also, look for a 'Hawks defensive play to score or set up a short offensive score.

Pick: Seattle 23 Arizona 13

Lockdown: I give you these picks, Merry Christmas

2008-12-21T10:55:00.003-05:00

After a horrid November, I am back on a roll, in the midst of a 5-0-1 run ATS the past two weeks. I did miss the Niners to win outright last week, but at least they came close, and even outyardaged Miami. Good thing I've been so hot because I'm about to stand out in the cold for six hours at Fed Ex this afternoon. By the way, I'm calling for an (under)Dog Day Afternoon.

Cincinnati (+3) at Cleveland

I remember another cold afternoon I spent in the football stands about five years ago. I witnessed Ken Dorsey throw terrible pass after terrible pass against a terrible Rutgers squad. Somehow, he's in the NFL and starting for the Browns, who haven't scored an offensive touchdown in a month.

Even the Bengals should be able to beat this banged-up Browns team, who will also be missing Winslow and Heiden. Don't actually watch this game, just lock it down.

Pick: Cincinnati 20 Cleveland 9

N.Y. Jets at Seattle (+4)

It's been a pretty horrible year for the 3-11 Seahawks. But Seneca Wallace is improving each week and they've played tough their last three at home. Meanwhile, the Jets are 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS since they exposed the Titans last month. Look for the 'Hawks to take this one in a wintry mix.

Pick: Seattle 24 N.Y. Jets 14

Upset Special: Buffalo (+230) at Denver

Trent Edwards is back and I think the Bills would like to turn it up one last time this season and get a win. Denver is wildly inconsistent, and they seem to play down to the competition. Plus, divine justice would make make Denver lose this game so San Diego has a chance to get the division back after that blown call in week two.

Pick: Buffalo 31 Denver 24

--Nate

Lockdown: December gold edition

2008-12-14T11:19:00.001-05:00

Atlanta (-3)
San Francisco to win outright (+240)
Minnesota/Arizona over 47
Washington/Cincy under 36.5

--Nate

Can high school kids in Baltimore play football? Looks like Terps don't think so.

2008-12-11T20:15:00.002-05:00

By Nate Sandstrom

The Baltimore Sun put out their all-Metro football teams today, and guess ho may of the first team offense and defense the paper reports are going to Maryland?

Answer: one.

Offensive Player of the Year Tavon Austin has said he is considering Maryland, but last week said West Virginia is the front-runner.

On the Terps' current roster of 125 players, just 13 players are from the Baltimore metro area (I'm including Columbia).

I'm not informed enough to know whether this is a good or bad thing; but I do find it interesting. For as much guff as Gary Williams gets for letting B-more hoops players get away, I haven't heard much about football coach Ralph Friedgen not getting B-more gridiron recruits.

Nate's Power Ratings: Dec. 10

2008-12-10T22:51:00.003-05:00

Was it just two weeks ago that many power ratings around the Web were putting the Giants and Jets in the top two slots? Now the Jets have lost back-to-back games, and the Titans team the Jets pounded has moved ahead of the Giants in most ratings. Even though they just lost at home to the Eagles, who recently tied the Bengals, who are 1-11-1.

Perhaps it's good to remind myself how quick things can change in the NFL. As the Redskins have slid from 6-2 to 7-6, I need something to believe in. I need to give up the smack talk songs. Portis and Zorn need to hug it out. Zorn needs to consider redrawing all blocking schemes, and oh yeah, sign about four offensive linemen. The 'skins still need a new punter (not Plackemeier) to replace the just-fine Derrick Frost, who was cut in preseason. The kicker should have been cut. Washington's second-round draft pick receivers need to make more plays.

Yet, despite all this doom and gloom, they could still make the playoffs. Last year, they rallied from 5-7 to get in; in 2005, they rallied from 5-6 to make it. Now, their remaining schedule has them at Cincinnati, vs. Philadelphia and at San Francisco, all winnable games.

But I don't think they will win out. Speaking of that, I'm predicting you'll need 11 wins to get in to the NFC playoffs, but you never know.

After reviewing the schedules, here's what I'm projecting for playoff seeding:
NFC
1. N.Y. Giants (12-4)
2. Carolina (12-4)
3. Arizona (10-6)
4. Minnesota (9-7)
5. Tampa Bay (11-5)
6. Atlanta (11-5)
AFC
1. Tennessee (14-2)
2. Pittsburgh (12-4)
3. New England (11-5)
4. Denver (9-7)
5. N.Y. Jets (10-6)
6. Indianapolis (10-6)

Sorry, Ravens fans, projected losses to Pittsburgh and Dallas put you via tiebreaker, as they lose for having worse strength of victory than Jets and head-to-head loss to Colts.

Now, onto the power ratings. Not much change from last week.
Team (W-L, last week)
1. N.Y. Giants (11-2, 1). Dropped passes lead to concerns. Can you answer this question?
2. Tennessee (12-1, 2). Will face a Houston team with backs against the wall this weekend.
3. Pittsburgh (10-3, 3). Talk about finding a way to win, will they carry the mo' next week.
4. Carolina (10-3, 4). Remember when Steve Smith fight was supposed to derail this team?
5. Tampa Bay (9-4, 5). Still in great playoff position.
6. Dallas (8-5, 6). Sure, Jerry. It's Barber's fault.
7. Indianapolis (9-4, 7). Finally, a blowout win. Now they get Detroit.
8. Baltimore (9-4, 8). Getting the stretchers ready for this weekend.
9. Arizona (8-5, 12). Can't believe they didn't have the decency to let the Niners keep it close.
10. New England (8-5, 15). Beat the Seahawks on a day other teams wouldn't have.
11. Philadelphia (7-5-1, 16). Remember when their season was over?
12. Miami (8-5, 17). Unheralded defense needs to keep it up to get 'Phins in postseason.
13. Denver (8-5, 9). Finally, Raiders and Chiefs off their schedule.
14. Atlanta (8-5, 10). How will young team respond to pressure-filled stretch run?
15. Minnesota (8-5, 11). That Lions game was way too close. Again.
16. N.Y. Jets (8-5, 14). This ship is sinking fast, but should get in if they beat Buffalo, Miami.
17. Houston (6-7, 20). Great run, but started too far in the hole.
18. Green Bay (5-8, 19). Let too many games get away, in deep hole now (said this last week too).
19. Chicago (7-6, 21). Offense showed some spark last week.
20. New Orleans (7-6, 18). Tough to know where they'll go this offseason.
21. San Francisco (5-8, 22). Things are turning around fast. Is Shaun Hill MVP?
22. Washington (7-6, 13). See above.
23. Buffalo (6-7, 23). Shaun King. Patrick Ramsey. J.P. Losman. The next Tulane NFL QB?
24. San Diego (5-8, 24). Almost sure Cutler fumble in Week 2 will cost them division.
25. Seattle (2-11, 26). The best damned 2-11 team in history.
26. Jacksonville (4-9, 25). Is Garrard really better than Leftwhich was?
27. Cleveland (4-9, 27). I'm flashing back to watching Dorsey at Miami nearly losing to Rutgers.
28. Oakland (3-10, 28). Does anyone have JaMarcus Russell's cell phone number?
29. Kansas City (2-11, 29). May actually beat Bengals, move back in draft.
30. St. Louis (2-11, 30). Remember when they beat Dallas and Washington?
31. Cincinnati (1-11-1, 31). Why bother?
32. Detroit (0-13, 12). Every team wins once, right? Update this week: Not anymore.

A writer converting back to my anti-playoff side

2008-12-10T22:50:00.001-05:00

From SI.
--Nate

Final regular season rankings

2008-12-08T22:42:00.004-05:00

By Nate Sandstrom

For all the gnashing of teeth about Texas, I think the BCS has done its self-declared job of putting the two teams that have had the best seasons in a bowl game against each other. I hope others are impressed that Oklahoma is the first team in 79 years to score 60 points in six straight games.

The bigger snub is Boise State getting passed over, I'd have put them ahead of Utah and Ohio State. Oh well, they will get to play in one of the best bowl season match-ups when they take on TCU in the Poinsettia Bowl on Dec. 23 in San Diego (get out of work early, kickoff is at 5.)

I would also like to take the time to ask how BYU is #17 in the AP poll. Their best win is Air Force, and they were beat comfortably by Utah and waxed by TCU.

My final regular season rankings:
1. Florida (12-1, 2). Even when they're off they win by double-digits.
2. Oklahoma (12-1, 3). A loss here and they start to be categorized as chokers like the Buckeyes.
3. Texas (12-1, 4). Hope they don't spend so much time crying that they lose to Ohio State.
4. Alabama (12-1, 1). Pretty-much guaranteed preseason #1 next year, right?
5. USC (11-1, 5). Too bad for them no Pac-10 wins were valuable.
6. Penn State (11-1,6). Big Ten team with no athletes. Sure.
7. Texas Tech (11-1, 7). Only team to beat Texas gets only team to beat Florida.
8. Boise State (12-0, 8). Keep racking up undefeated seasons.
9. Ohio State (10-2, 9). Top 10 even in down year.
10. Utah (12-0, 10). Should fare better in Sugar Bowl than Hawaii last year, but how much?
11. Oklahoma St. (9-3, 11). Could be next year's Texas Tech.
12. Cincinnati (11-2, 13). Quietest 11-win season in a while.
13. Oregon (9-3, 14). Late rally has Ducks on verge of another 10-win season.
14. TCU (10-2, 15). Should get more national respect.
15. Georgia Tech (9-3, 16). Where do they go from here?
16. Georgia (9-3, 17). Hope they are recruiting a defense.
17. Mississippi (8-4, 18). Imagine if they had won the Wake and Vanderbilt games?
18. Michigan State (9-3, 19). And we've now reached the lowest tier of ranked teams.
19. Pittsburgh (9-3, 20). Shady McCoy nearly a Heisman candidate.
20. Iowa (8-4, 21). Speaking of Heisman candidate RB's, what about Shonn Green?
21. Oregon St. (8-4, 23). Great at screwing USC.
22. Northwestern (9-3, 25). And I had So. Illinois upsetting them before the year.
23. Virginia Tech (9-4, NR). Somehow, emerged as ACC Champ again.
24. Ball State (12-1, 12). Turnovers are killer.
25. Boston College (9-4, 24). Keep beating expectations.

I live!

2008-12-07T10:26:00.003-05:00

OK, I've taken ten weeks to prepare these, so here you go, my all new updated power rankings:
1. N.Y. Giants: These are not the Patriots of the past 5 years when Belicheck could seemingly cut anyone and be fine. They should be concerned about losing Plaxico
2. Pittsburgh: Better than the Titans.
3. Tennessee: I still say Ngata is better than Haynesworth.
4. Dallas: They'll get tested today, but I have a feeling they're about to get back to early season form.
5. Indianapolis: Damn the Vikings for not putting them in a too-deep hole.
6. Baltimore: 11th in the NFL in scoring. What a difference a QB and real offensive coordinator make. By the way, defense is ranked 2nd behind only Pittsburgh.
7. Carolina: I have no idea what's going on here.
8. Atlanta: I'm polishing my knuckles right now.
9. Tampa: I hate this division.
10. Denver: Ho hum.
11. Minnesota: I credit my office mug with they're success.
12. Arizona: I'm not as down on them as Nate. They just can't come East.
13. Jets: I just can't wait for a well-timed Favre turnover.
14. Washington: I predict they'll be missing out on the Playoffs this year.
15. New England: I buy into Cassel. Not as another Tom Brady, but as a quality starting QB. Better than Schaub.
16. Philadelphia: I agree with Nate that they may close hot, but will that just cover up the problems and keep them from making changes?.
17. Green Bay: I like this team a lot. They aren't getting it done this year, but they've lost a bunch of close ones. next year they'll win the division. Losing Favre is not the problem.
18.Miami: Will they open up the QB spot for competition next year?
19. New Orleans: Based on history of players having great seasons, look for Brees to have big letdown next year.
20. Chicago: Forte is the only real highlight here.
21. Houston: Did I win the preseason Schaub/Rosenfels debate?
22. San Francisco: I hope they draft Heyward-Bey and Keep Hill and Davis and become Terps West.
23. Buffalo: I have no idea what has happened to Trent Edwards
24. San Diego: Is it just me or does Rivers have no zip on his ball?
25. Jacksonville: I heard Del Rio is on the hot seat. That would be stupid.
26. Cleveland: They'd be stupid to fire Savage. But they should let Crennel go.
27. Seattle: Coming to an end of an era.
28. Oakland: I have seen nothing from Jamarcus this year.
29. Kansas City: They won't be in first place next year, Nate.
30. St. Louis: Just a total mess. They have to start from scratch.
31. Cincinnati: Poor Marvin Lewis.
32. Detroit: Too bad they don't get to play 2006 Ravens.

Saturday night lock

2008-12-06T19:16:00.002-05:00

It's been a busy day so this is all I'm getting to:

Arizona State at Arizona (-10.5)

The Wildcats have lost three straight in this in-state rivalry, but that streak stops tonight. Arizona has shown they can exploit bad defenses and Arizona State has shown they can be one. Still, ASU has won three straight and can get bowl eligible with a win here.

However, I expect the 'cats to take out past years' frustrations in this one.

Pick: Arizona 41 Arizona State 17

--Nate

Another This Just In....

2008-12-04T22:57:00.002-05:00

It seems working at USC is a golden ticket to getting a head job at a traditional power, this time at Washington. Sorry Jim Mora Jr., no dream job for you, at least until Steve Sarkisian is fired in two years.

--Nate

This Just In

2008-12-04T21:55:00.002-05:00

Westlake wins 3A Championship over Wilde Lake, 13-0. Their quick defense put constant pressure on the Wilde Lake offensive attack. Check here for full coverage in about an hour. Congrats to my buddy and Westlake alum Jim Marsden. Congrats to my college buddy and Penn State fan Chris Smith, PSU recruit Devon Smith returned a punt 88-yards for a TD, his fourth return TD this season.
--Nate

NFL Power Ratings: Dec. 4

2008-12-04T15:44:00.009-05:00

By Nate Sandstrom

I got sick sitting at the Giants-'Skins game last Sunday. Probably as much because I sat in the rain for three hours as Washington's actual play, but neither one was good.

In case you're keeping track the following teams have been mathematically eliminated form playoff contention: Seatle, St. Louis, Detroit, Cleveland, Kansas City and Cincinnati. Oakland is eliminated with a loss at San Diego tonight.

On with the ratings:

1. N.Y. Giants (11-1). Should be an upset alert vs. Philly this week.
2. Tennessee (11-1). Does anyone remember Vince Young?
3. Pittsburgh (9-3). Sick defense. Harrison is even iller.
4. Carolina (9-3). Nothing like drafting a RB to get your RB going.
5. Tampa Bay (9-3). What a weird thing for Gruden to cry about.
6. Dallas (8-4). Working out of mid-season swoon.
7. Indianapolis (8-4). Tied record for most straight wins by six or less, but they keep winning.
8. Baltimore (8-4). Can't ever remember them scoring like this.
9. Denver (7-5). Get no respect but are 3-0 against NFL's best division.
10. Atlanta (8-4). Exceeding even Mark's preseason pick.
11. Minnesota (7-5). Good thing the Williams took their case to a Minneapolis judge.
12. Arizona (7-5). Can clinch West this week, a loss will start more meltdown talk.
13. Washington (7-5). Peaked in September; finished 4-0 two of the last three years.
14. N.Y. Jets (8-4). Sure, New York has the best two teams.
15. New England (7-5). It's OK to run once when you have first and goal at the nine, coach.
16. Philadelphia (6-5-1). I expect them to close hot.
17. Miami (7-5). Playoffs unlikely, but a big step forward this year.
18. New Orleans (6-6). Is there a less predictable team in the league? Oh yeah, Denver.
19. Green Bay (5-7). Letting too many games get away, in deep hole now.
20. Houston (5-7). Still alive; Slaton mounting late ROY bid.
21. Chicago (6-6). Blown out last two vs. division.
22. San Francisco (4-8). Can still technically win the West.
23. Buffalo (6-6). 4-0 seems like a long time ago.
24. San Diego (4-8). At least I saw Shawm Merriman this week (Coat drive at Terps game).
25. Jacksonville (4-8). I had Jags reaching divisionals in my preseason picks.
26. Seattle (2-10). The best damned 2-10 team in this league.
27. Cleveland (4-8). I was annoyed by offseason hype around Browns; now, I feel bad for them.
28. Oakland (3-9). Hey Tennessee Vols, get used to seeing 3-9 with Kiffin.
29. Kansas City (2-10). Worst to first next year?
30. St. Louis (2-10). Need more than Steven Jackson.
31. Cincinnati (1-10-1). Bring in Jordan Palmer! Yeah! Oh God, No!!!! Damn it.
32. Detroit (0-12). Every team wins once, right?

Early Lockdown: Rutgers-Louisville

2008-12-04T15:17:00.002-05:00

By Nate Sandstrom

Louisville (over 52) at Rutgers (-10.5)

Does it seem like longer than two years ago that Louisville at Rutgers were squaring off for a bid the BCS Championship game? It does to me; not much lot has gone right for either team since that last-second 28-25 Rutgers win on Nov. 9, 2006. Louisville basically has not been able to stop anyone from scoring over the past two seasons, while Rutgers has suffered a string of embarassing losses, especially at home.

Rutgers stumbled out of the gate 1-5 this year, with the only win being at home against Morgan State. However, they're now riding a five-game winning streak, including winning the last four by an average 24.5 points (they even won at Pitt 54-34).

Meanwhile, Louisville (5-6) has lost four straight and need a win tonight to become bowl eligible. In a similar position last year, they were able to upset Rutgers and earn a .500 record.

However, I look for the Rutgers pass attack to take advantage of a young Louisville secondary on senior night. No doubt that QB Mike Teel, WR Kenny Britt and others to take out the frustrations of the last two years on the Cards. At the same time, Louisvile almost always gets their scores. Gimme Rutgers and the over.

Pick: Rutgers 43 Louisville 24

Pro Bowl ballot

2008-12-04T13:37:00.003-05:00

By Nate Sandstrom

I submitted a Pro Bowl ballot today (you can vote online here). I'm not sure how these are selected, but I was disappointed that Leodis McKelvin was not listed under kick returners. Also, I think it's stupid you only get to vote for one strong safety and one free safety. I voted on the season players are having over overall talent level. Anyway, my ballot:

NFC
QB Drew Brees
QB Jeff Garcia
QB Aaron Rodgers
RB Adrian Peterson
RB Clinton Portis
RB Michael Turner
FB Mike Sellers
WR Calvin Johnson
WR Steve Smith
WR Anquan Boldin
WR Roddy White
TE Chris Cooley
TE Jason Witten
C Matt Birk
C Olin Kreutz
G Steve Hutchinson
G Travelle Wharton
G Keydrick Vincent
T Bryant McKinnie
T Chris Samuels
T Jon Stinchcomb
DE John Abraham
DE Justin Tuck
DE Jared Allen
DT Tommie Harris
DT Darnell Docket
DT Jonathan Babineaux
OLB LanceBriggs
OLB Chad Greenway
OLB Ernie Sims
ILB Jon Beason
ILB Patrick Willis
CB Corey Webster
CB Charles Woodson
CB Carlos Rogers
SS Chris Horton
FS Nick Collins
K Josh Brown
P Josh Bidwell
KR Allen Rossum
ST Richard Marshall

AFC
QB Peyton Manning
QB Phillip Rivers
QB Jay Cutler
RB Thomas Jones
RB Marshawn Lynch
RB Steve Slaton
FB Tony Richardson
WR Lee Evans
WR Andre Johnson
WR Vincent Jackson
WR Matt Jones
TE Antonio Gates
TE Anthony Gonzalez
C Nick Mangold
C Kevin Mawae
G Kris Dielman
G Alan Faneca
G Brian Waters
T D'Brickashaw Ferguson
T Marcus McNeil
T Joe Thomas
DE Mario Williams
DE Dwight Freeny
DE Shaun Ellis
DT Albert Haynesworth
DT Haloti Ngata
DT Shaun Rogers
OLB James Harrison
OLB Keith Bulluck
OLB Terrell Suggs
ILB D'Qwell Jackson
ILB Jerod Mayo
CB Jacques Reeves
CB Darelle Revis
CB Cortland Finnegan
SS Troy Polamalu
FS Ed Reed
K Jeff Reed
P Shane Lechler
KR Joshua Cribbs
ST Kassim Osgood

Top 25 Rankings

2008-12-01T23:10:00.004-05:00

By Nate Sandstrom

So this week's complaint fest about the BCS is focused on whether Texas or Oklahoma should be ahead. I can see both sides, but if you ask me, I favor Oklahoma.

I know the main argument for taking Texas is that they beat Oklahoma head-to-head. But I don't see why that's a more valid argument than saying Texas Tech beat Texas so they should be ahead of the Longhorns (which I also don't believe).

In college football every game counts, and I think Oklahoma has the more impressive resume. They've beaten four of my top 15 teams — Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, Cincinnati and TCU – by 20 points or more. Texas has beaten two of those teams — Oklahoma and Oklahoma State — by 10 and 7, respectively.

That's my reasoning; if you can come up with a better argument, let me hear it.

Of course, all this may be irrelevant. If Florida and Alabama play a tight, crisp 60-minute game, couldn't computer strength keep them 1-2 and set up a rematch? Not likely, but we'll see.

In other BCS-related notes, I moved up Boise State ahead of Utah this week. The move is in part because of the way they crushed a disappointing Fresno State team, but has more to do with the fact that the win at Oregon looks even better after they trashed Oregon State in the Civil War on Saturday. I would like to see both Boise and Utah get into BCS games, but that seems pretty unlikely.

What I'd like to see, assuming Florida, Oklahoma and Boston College win on Saturday.

BCS Championship: Florida vs. Oklahoma
Orange Bowl: Cincinnati vs. Boston College
Sugar Bowl: Alabama vs. Boise State
Rose Bowl: USC vs. Penn State
Fiesta Bowl: Utah vs. Texas

Finally, here's my end of November ballot.

Team (W-L, Last Week)
1. Alabama (12-0, 1). Combined with Auburn's suckiness, '08 a great season in Tide history.
2. Florida (11-1, 2). If Gators beat Alabama, they may challenge the Detroit Lions next.
3. Oklahoma (11-1, 3). See above.
4. Texas (11-1, 4). Hoping for a repeat of the 2003 Big 12 Title Game.
5. USC (10-1, 5). Hoping to avoid a repeat of 2006.
6. Penn State (11-1, 6). Enjoyed Thanksgiving at home while all these other suckers were playing.
7. Texas Tech (11-1, 7). Despite Oklahoma game, a great season for Raiders.
8. Boise State (12-0, 11). Would be interesting to see them join the Pac-10 (The Big Ten has 11!).
9. Ohio State (10-2, 9). Good finish, considering they were trailing Wisconsin in 4Q on Oct. 4.
10. Utah (12-0, 10). Utes are probably booking their Fiesta Bowl flight.
11. Oklahoma St. (9-3, 8). Wishing they were in Big 12 North.
12. Ball State (12-0, 13). Great season, but hurt by no marquis wins.
13. Cincinnati (10-2, 16). May have done so well that they lose Coach Kelly.
14. Oregon (9-3, 22). Second straight year of QB injuries may have cost them BCS again.
15. TCU (10-2, 14). Utah game will haunt them, but should take pride in great year.
16. Georgia Tech (9-3, 23). I'm leaning toward Paul Johnson as Coach of the Year.
17. Georgia (9-3, 15). Not their fault they were ranked #1.
18. Mississippi (8-4, 18). Think Houston Nutt is smiling down the standings at Arkansas?
19. Michigan St. (9-3, 19). Javon Ringer can use the time off before the bowl.
20. Pittsburgh (8-3, 20). Another big Backyard Brawl win.
21. Iowa (8-4, 21). This season could have been so much more for Hawks.
22. Missouri (9-3, 12). Most resented team in country right now.
23. Oregon St. (8-4, 16). Didn't expect Rogers to make THAT much difference.
24. Boston College (9-3, 24). Keep beating ACC teams that allegedly out-recruit them.
25. Northwestern (9-3, NR). Finally, I've put Northwestern in the poll. Now they need to win their bowl game to make it a great season.

***Bonus picks for FCS playoff games (I went 6-2 in Round 1, missing on Cal Poly and Colgate)
James Madison over Villanova
Montana over Weber State
New Hampshire upsets Northern Iowa
Appalachian State over Richmond

A good perspective on the BCS

2008-12-01T23:03:00.002-05:00

This from Everyday Should be Saturday, my favorite college football blog. I too don't like to worry about the BCS (even though I've just put in my two cents on why Oklahoma should be ahead of Texas above). Does anyone remember the Bowl Alliance? Or before that when there was nothing? College football was awesome then and is still awesome now.

For those of you who really want a playoff, stop going to games and stop paying attention. Crying about the BCS isn't going to make a difference, but if you walk with your money that will. But I doubt you have it in you because college football is so far superior to any other sport.

--Nate

Penn State is Big Ten Champions of football, mascots arrested

2008-12-01T22:59:00.003-05:00

I don't know if he was still depressed about that loss to Iowa, but Penn State's mascot was arrested and charged with DUI over the weekend. See link here to the plain jerseys blog.

--Nate

Where I've been

2008-12-01T21:45:00.003-05:00

By Nate Sandstrom

I guess I've been notably absent lately in part because I've been writing for publication/$ again, in part because work has been really busy and partly because our car is dead and taking the bus eats up a bit more of my day.

However, this week I expect to be back for full coverage, starting tonight.

Mark's Jesup Lockdown

2008-11-29T11:52:00.004-05:00

I'm on a 6-0 streak right now!
With the season coming to a close and coaches looking to make statements, I like scores to get run up, so I like the favorites today. More NFL picks to follow tomorrow.
Florida (-16.5) at Florida State
USC (-31.5) vs. Notre Dame
Upset Special: Virginia (+260) @ Va Tech

Congrats, Ball State

2008-11-25T22:01:00.002-05:00

Congratulations to Ball State, who is 4 minutes from heading to the MAC Championship at 12-0. I'm not sure whether this guy is serious about them being a Rose Bowl team — because they aren't better than Penn State — but you have to feel bad for them for not getting a shot at a bowl bigger than the Motor City Bowl.

I think they'd fare much better than Hawaii did against Georgia last year in the Sugar Bowl, although they are not the caliber of 2006 Boise State.

They should beat Buffalo and either Wisconsin or Minnesota, whichever they play in a Bowl Game, and finish 14-0.

I wonder if they would fit into President-elect Obama's proposed eight-team playoff system? Their best wins are Navy and Central Michigan, but so they can't be considered top 8. But they could be considered a top 16 team if they were a 16-team tourney.

Say they get a 14-seed and have the chance to lose in the first round to someone like Texas; would that be a more rewarding season than finishing 14-0? Open for comments.

--Nate

What just happened?

2008-11-25T21:54:00.003-05:00

The Raiders fired Lane Kiffin for Tom Cable so Jim Fassell could write love letters to Al Davis? The Vols fired Phil Fulmer to hire Lane Kiffin? What just happened?

--Nate

Lockdown, late edition

2008-11-23T09:22:00.001-05:00

Never take a game to get one back; except now when I'm tkaing the Niners while I can still get +9.5 at Dallas. Injured Terrence Newman? All right!

--Nate

Lockdown: Week 13 quick hit

2008-11-21T19:49:00.002-05:00

By Nate Sandstrom

It's a quick version tonight that will feature more explanation depending on how early I can get up tomorrow.

Illinois (-3) at Northwestern

It's been an up and down year for the Illini, who beat Iowa and took Missouri to the end, yet lost to Western Michigan and just got past UL-Lafayette. But Illinois-Northwestern means more than the battle for Sweet Sioux this year — Illinois needs a win for bowl eligibility. The more desperate team gets this one.

Pick: Illinois 31 Northwestern 21

Upset Special: Tampa Bay at Detroit (+290)

There's been only one winless team in NFL history, the 0-14 Buccaneers. So wouldn't it be fitting if they were to provide the Lions with their first win of the season?

Not that that fact is anything to make a bet on, but I actually like the improvement the Lions offense has shown over the past month. The Bucs meanwhile struggled to get a road win at Kansas City two weeks ago and I'm banking on them looking past another inferior opponent.

Pick: Detroit 28 Tampa Bay 24

Seven questions/thoughts/predictions

2008-11-21T13:18:00.003-05:00

By Mark Goldman
Did Jim Fassel’s letter to Al Davis include a “Do you like me too? Check Yes or No” section?

You can email General Mangers? Why didn’t someone tell me this before?! I can’t wait to forward Ozzie the next time someone sends me an “Air Force One has been renamed The Soul Plane” email. (by the way, doesn't Savage look like a "special" guy who won some sort of "fan for a day" prize in that picture?)

Marvin Lewis is a bad coach. I thought for sure he’d be good and it appeared for a while that he’d turned the Bungles around, but I think he was just benefiting from some elite talent coming together at the right time. Kicking the field goal when you’re down 13 with six minutes to go and you’re inside the 10? Bad call. He doesn’t get any help from the fact that the front office there is out of their minds. That said, I don’t expect him to be fired this offseason.

We will never see an official 85 jersey that reads “OchoCinco.” Not because the NFL won’t allow it, but because the Bengals will trade Chad this offseason. Possibly to the Ravens for McCalister. And no way is Mason giving up his 85. It’s very possible that we see the name “OchoCinco” stitched above, say, 87. Now that would be awesome! Also, are the Bengals willing to admit they are complete morons for not taking Dan Snyder’s offer of two first round picks for Chad?

The Andy Reid/Donovan McNabb era is coming to a close. I’ve always felt that Philly didn’t appreciate what they had in McNabb. That he might not have been Tom Brady, but a quality, reliable QB is a blessing in the NFL. And four straight NFC championship games? What more can you ask for? I think Westbrook is going to rapidly decline soon as all RBs eventually do. I think McNabb will be out of town after this season. I think Andy Reid’s offense is going to struggle unless Kolb is extremely accurate and can deal with the pressure of no assistance from a running game?

I think there’s no way Polamalu isn’t the Defensive Player of the Year.

I think this is the funniest commercial I’ve seen in a while.

Early lockdown

2008-11-20T19:43:00.001-05:00

I've taken a beating the past two weeks in the NFL (1-3), but I just have to document that I have the Steelers rolling over a half-strength Bengals team.

Pick: Pittsburgh 35 Cincinnati 10

--Nate

Screw you, Cavalier

2008-11-18T23:10:00.002-05:00

Not much new on the blog tonight because my Internet service has su-uh-ucked for most of the night. I have this weird problem where it will work fine for a while then other times it will take like 10 minutes to load a page. I called tonight about the problem but by the time I was on hold for 20 minutes it started working again. Bastards.

--Nate

Top 25 FBS Rankings: Nov. 17

2008-11-17T22:10:00.002-05:00

By Nate Sandstrom

So, this past weekend may go down as one of the most uneventful ones in the history of November college football. There's virtually no change in the Top 25 in any of the major polls, especially at the top.

Probably the most eventful part of the weekend was ACC action. Boston College upset Florida State in their hideous all-black uniforms, keeping the Eagles' and Terps' (who converted a fourth-down late in the game to knock off UNC) hopes of winning the ACC Atlantic alive. Four teams can still win the division, and they all play each other this Saturday. Florida State (4-3 ACC) is at Maryland (4-2 ACC) and Wake Forest (4-3 ACC) takes on Boston College (3-3 ACC). Maryland can clinch with a win and Boston College loss; Wake can clinch with a win and a Maryland loss; if Maryland and Boston College both win they will play next week for the title.

In the Coastal, Miami took the division lead at 4-2, though everyone else but Duke is either 4-3 or 3-3 so there's much to be decided here.

I'll have more on the conference races on Wednesday.

Meanwhile, my Top 25 ballot this week.

Team (W-L, last week)
1. Texas Tech (10-0, 1). My top team, even though Coach Leach is still playing the underdog.
2. Alabama (11-0, 2). Has there been a quieter run to #1 in the BCS by any other team ever?
3. Florida (9-1, 3). If not for illegal blocked XP against Miss, they are #1.
4. Texas (10-1, 4). At least the computers like them better than Florida.
5. Oklahoma (9-1, 5). Will wins over TT and OSU vault them up BCS rankings? Probably.
6. USC (9-1, 6). Can you go to the title game without winning your conference? Ask Georgia.
7. Penn State (10-1, 7). A big win over Spartans would go a long way to finishing in Top 5.
8. Oklahoma St. (9-2, 8). Think these guys can't wait to face Oklahoma in two weeks?
9. Ohio State (9-2, 9). OSU tries to break largest margin win over UM this week (38-0, 1934).
10. Utah (11-0, 10). Just needs win vs. BYU and BCS bid is theirs.
11. Boise State (10-0, 12). Bet Boise would love a shot at the Utes.
12. Missouri (9-2, 13). Lucky they play in Big 12 North, unlucky to play South winner in Dec.
13. Ball State (10-0, 15). I think Cards could play with some of these teams above them.
14. TCU (9-2, 16). Oh, to have the last 5:00 of that Utah game back.
15. Georgia (9-2, 11). Fortunate to be 9-2.
16. LSU (7-3, 14). Even down 31-3, you had to know they'd come back.
17. Michigan St. (9-2, 19). Penn State game will define their season.
18. Oregon St. (7-3, 22). Really wish the first two were exhibition games.
19. Cincinnati (8-2, 21). Quietly having one of the best storybook seasons.
20. Pitt (7-2, 24). Can Pitt avoid any more stinkers this year?
21. BYU (10-1, 23). Nice win over Air Force on Saturday.
22. Iowa (7-4, 25). Still looking for New Year's bowl bid.
23. Miami (7-3, NR). Welcome back 'Canes; now can you stay in the rankings?
24. Vanderbilt (6-4, NR). Good chance to rebound from mid-season swoon.
25. Oregon (8-3, NR). Can still finish with 10 wins despite injury-plagued year.

Lokdown: Stab in the dark version

2008-11-16T11:39:00.003-05:00

By Nate Sandstrom

We all know that I tend to prefer picking college games, but a jam-packed few days leading up to Saturday didn't give me time to run the numbers. That leads me to today, where I'm going totally against the numbers and purely on my gut. A sure recipe for 0-3? We'll see.

Minnesota (+5) at Tampa Bay

Minnesota is 1-3 on the road, while Tampa is 4-0 at home. Tampa is 9-4 ATS in their last 13 home games, Minnesota is 3-9 ATS in their last 12 overall, including 0-3 ATS on grass.

But I feel like last week was a season momentum-changing win for the Vikes, who will be able to contain Tampa's rush attack.

Pick: Minnesota 20 Tampa Bay 16

San Diego (+5) at Pittsburgh

The Chargers defense has been nothing but horrible this year, and the Chargers haven't won in Pittsburgh since the '94 AFC Championship Game. They also should have lost at home to Kansas City.

But as long as Awfulsburger is QB for the Steelers throwing ducks with a bum shoulder, I'll take San Diego's turnover-creating defense.

Pick: San Diego 30 Pittsburgh 24

Tennessee at Jacksonville (+3)

Tennessee is 8-1 ATS this year, while Jacksonville is 3-6 ATS. They are 0-4 ATS at home this year, and 1-8 ATS their last nine on grass. If you remember back to Week 1, I took the Titans +3 as home dogs against the Jags for a lockdown win.

This week, I'm taking the Jags as the three-point home dog, and not just because I like three-point home dogs. The Jags finally outrushed an opponent by more than 50 yards for the first time since September, so I'm looking for them to continue that trend.

Pick: Jacksonville 17 Tennessee 16

Week 11

2008-11-16T11:15:00.004-05:00

By Mark Goldman

Lock the following up:

Sand Diego (+5.5) at Pittsburgh - This line has moved 2 points since opening! Free points courtesy of the morons (SoBo Football included!) across the country that think they know what they're doing. I know San Diego hasn't looked great all year, but now's the time for them to turn it on. And R-berger hasn't looked so hot lately. The Chargers promoted Ron Riviera to D-Coordinator and the word is he's going to bring the pressure back to their lackluster D. Take the points.

Tennessee (-3) at Jacksonville - Everyone seems to think this is the place the Titans stumble. Not me. Jacksonville is on the verge of a free fall and the Titans' defense is going to eat up the Jags' offense. Take the team that is 8-1 ATS and give up only 3 points.

Arizona (-3) at Seattle - Seattle's giving up 25 ppg and Arizona is scoring 29. Meanwhile, Seattle is only scoring 18. Arizona has won all its games by margins of 5, 21, 6, 24, 21, 10. Giving up three doesn't make me nervous.

CALM DOWN, BALTIMORE!
Yes, Flacco looks for real. Yes, the offense has been more fun to watch than the past ten years combined. Yes, Ray Lewis looks like a man playing for a $40 Million contract! But let's not forget who we've beaten and to whom we have lost. We've played three contenders and lost to all of them. All our wins have come against second and third tier teams. I know, you have to win those games in order to be a legit team. But you also have to find a way to beat half of the big games you play. Coming up, the Ravens have the NFC East and Pittsburgh. To make the playoffs, the Ravens have to win at least 4 of the next 7 games. I expect them to do it. But before you go printing your playoff tickets, just remember that the team has had 3 big tests and failed them all.

That said, the Ravens are getting 7 points today! I didn't want to gynx it and make that a lock, but dear lord! 7 points! Baltimore has lost three games. Two of them were only by 3 each! And that was against the Titans and the Steelers. 7 points!

Post-Week 10 Power Ratings

2008-11-13T13:59:00.002-05:00

My explanationless power rankings are on the sidebar and below.

1. Tennessee
2. N.Y. Giants
3. Pittsburgh
4. Carolina
5. New England
6. Baltimore
7. Washington
8. N.Y. Jets
9. Tampa Bay
10. Atlanta
11. Arizona
12. Philadelphia
13. Miami
14. Buffalo
15. Chicago
16. Green Bay
17. Dallas
18. New Orleans
19. Indianapolis
20. Jacksonville
21. Denver
22. San Diego
23. Minnesota
24. Cleveland
25. Seattle
26. Houston
27. San Francisco
28. St. Louis
29. Oakland
30. Kansas City
31. Cincinnati
32. Detroit

Elsewhere, here are ESPN's, Fox Sport's, Sportsline's.

Off to Wells for me. Buy one bottle of wine get one 1/2 off if you're interested.

--Nate

Playoffs!

2008-11-13T12:46:00.002-05:00

By Nate Sandstrom

Over the next two days, 64 high school football teams across the state of Maryland will take the field in a quest for a trip to M&T Bank Stadium on the first Saturday in December and the chance to take home one of four different state titles (Class 1A, 2A, 3A and 4A).

Inside those quests are plenty of intrigue as well. D.C. and Baltimore-area schools battle for bragging rights over which region is best, while county foes square-off in rematches of tight regular season contests.

River Hill, Dunbar, Quince Orchard and Damascus are all in and looking to defend their respective championships of last season. Eastern Tech and Arundel are also back in the tournament looking for the titles they came oh so close to capturing last season.

Despite the dreary rain and cold today tomorrow should be good football weather, with partly cloudy skies and temperatures in the mid-60s if you're looking for some football to catch live. A run down on some games of note:

# = Max Preps state ranking, team, (County, team record and seed)

Class 4A
Friday 7 p.m.
• Wootton (Montgomery, 7-3, 3S) at #8 Quince Orchard (Montgomery, 9-1, 2S). Quince Orchard opens their title defense by facing-off against their season-opening opponent, Wootton. That one was a close contest, with the Cougars winning on the road 26-21. Quince Orchard also features a top-15 CB in Maryland recruit Travis Hawkins. They also have top-flight recruit DE Jason Ankrah. Wootton is riding a five-game win streak, but will need some big plays to pull an upset here.

Class 3A
Friday, 7 p.m.
• Damascus (Frederick, 7-3, 4W) at #16 Seneca Valley (Montgomery, 10-0, 1W). The only undefeated team in Class 3A will host the defending state champion in this strong first-round battle. Seneca Valley prevailed in a match-up of these team on Oct. 24 13-7 as Damascus' homecoming opponent. Seneca Valley scored on the first two possession of the game but had to hold off a late Damascus rally. The Screaming Eagles D has posted six shoutouts this season.

Class 2A
Friday, 7 p.m.
• #20 Gwynn Park (Pricne George's, 8-2, 4S) at #2 River Hill (Howard, 10-0, 1S). Hard to know who is going to complain about this draw more. In the talented 2A South region, Gwynn Park barely made the tourney at all despite topping #11 Dunbar in Baltimore in the season opener, shut-out state qualifier Friendly and took #18 Urbana to overtime before losing. All this and they get a team that has won 24 straight games since falling in the 2006 3A state title game to Friendly. Players to note include DT Raynard Randolph.

Not that River Hill is eager to see Gwynn Park in the first round. The Hawks have outscored opponents 464-28 this season and are widely-recognized as the best public school team in the state. However, some may question their strength of schedule. They've played just one team that qualfied for the state tourney, defeating #12 Wilde Lake 12-0. Still, the Hawks have a pair of backs already given scholarships to 1-A schools in Michael Campanaro and Malek Redd and combind with their stifling defense led by S/WR Leron Eaddy will still be favorites.

Class 1A
Saturday, 6 p.m.
Reginald Lewis (Baltimore City, 7-3, 2S) vs. W.E.B. DuBois (Baltimore City, 7-3, 3S) at Poly High (Baltimore). The Sun calls this game possibly the most even first-round game in the state; Lewis won the first meeting 6-3. Both defenses allow fewer than 10 ppg.

Also, the Sun faceoff today debates whether private school teams, which recruit, should be allowed to compete in state tournaments. I think the best answer is to have the private school champ take on the winner of a four-team playoff among the public school champs in kind of high school Super Bowl, though I'm sure some would say that would be way too long of a season for the kids. It would certainly hurt basketball at the schools that advance, but I would still like to see it.

2008 FCS playoff run: Part I

2008-11-11T23:12:00.004-05:00

By Nate Sandstrom

I'm a bowl system supporter in college football, but as a former resident of Cedar Falls, Iowa, and student at Northern Iowa, I know a bit about the 1-AA (now Football Championship Subdivison under a marketing ploy) playoffs.

You should too. Good players come out of I-AA including guys mentioned in my NFL awards post below like Kurt Warner and Nick Collins.

First, a refresher on the rules: There are eight automatic bids for the tournament that go the champions of the Big Sky, Colonial, MEAC, Missouri Valley, Ohio Valley, Patriot, Southern and Southland.

There are eight other at-large spots that come from those conferences as well as the Great West (where Cal Poly is almost a lock and will have a shot to nab a top seed when they head to Madison in two weeks), the Big South (where Liberty has a long shot at an at-large bid), and the Independents (no one has a chance). The Ivy doesn't really participate, the SWAC has their own title game and the Pioneer and Northeast conferences (think I-A's Sun Belt) have their own kind-of bowl game.

So far, Weber State out of the Big Sky is the only team to lock up a bid. South Carolina State can do so when they visit Morgan State here in Baltimore on Saturday. If Northern Iowa beats Indiana State (should be a blow out) and South Dakota State pulls a minor upset at Southern Illinois, then UNI would clinch the Gateway auto bid.

Here's a good projection breakdown by the Lynchburg News Adavance's Chris Lang.

Other games of note this weekend (FCS rankings, my rankings on sidebar):
• #11 Elon (8-2) at #2 Appalachian St. (8-2). Winner gets auto bid from best conference in FCS football, but a loss could bump Elon out.
• #12 William & Mary (7-2) at #1 James Madison (8-1). William & Mary would virtually lock-up a bid with an upset here.
• South Dakota State (6-4) at #10 Southern Illinois (7-2). Jackrabbits could actually vault past Salukis in playoff contention with a win here.
• #22 Massachusetts (6-4) at #13 New Hampshire (7-2). New Hampshire may need this to keep its tourney streak alive.
• #9 Wofford (7-2) at Samford (5-4). This will not be an easy trip for Wofford, who pursues at-large bid.
• #18 Tennessee State (8-2) at Jacksonville State (7-3). Elimination game in four-way race for OVC title.
• UC-Davis (5-5) at #3 Cal Poly (7-1). Aggies tough schedule makes their record look worst than it is, but Poly should win this game in order to virtually lock-up an at-large bid.

NFL Awards Watch: Nov. 11

2008-11-11T22:29:00.003-05:00

By Nate Sandstrom

First, I heard ESPN's Tom Jackson make a crazy comment about Kurt Warner being NFL MVP after last night's poor excuse for a Monday Night Football game. Then, the Cardinals fans standing behind the ESPN set outside the game started chanting MVP.

Huh?

It's a nice comeback story that Kurt Warner is leading the league in pass efficiency, but I don't buy him as an MVP candidate any more than I do Jason Campbell, Philip Rivers or Drew Brees, who all also have nice passing numbers. I consider Offensive Player of the Year the more appropriate award category for Warner, the one-time employee of the grocery store of my teen years, Hy-Vee.

I prefer to nominate a trio of running backs as my leaders in the MVP race in Michael Turner, Clinton Portis and Adrian Peterson, in that order.

Prior to Pittsburgh's demolition of the Washington Redskins, I probably would've designated Portis as the leader, butI've pushed Michael Turner into the lead role in the past two weeks as Atlanta keeps winning. I believe the big performance he put on in Week 1 helped set the tone for the season, and the production from the league's #3 rusher has taken pressure of rookie QB Matt Ryan and allowed him to emerge and contiue gaining confidence.

Speaking of Matt Ryan, he is part of a tight race for Rookie of the Year that includes fellow 1st-round draft pick QB Joe Flacco, Tennessee RB Chris Johnson, Chicago RB Matt Forte, late draft pick and Redskins S Chris Horton and Houston RB Steve Slaton. I'll give Johnson the slightest early lead, but I'm going to defer a full designated leader another week on this one.

In the first week of this feature I designate Green Bay S Nick Collins leader of the race for Defensive Player of the Year after he returned his third INT for a touchdown this season. It initially looked to me like it was the game-winner, but A-Pete was able to get the actual game winner a few minutes later.

Still, Collins, a third full-year starter, is tied for the league lead with five total picks. He's added 41 tackles and 14 pass break-ups to go with it.

Also in the discussion for D-POY is secondary mate Charles Woodson, who also has 5 INT's; Tennessee CB Cortland Finnegan, who has been a leader in the stout Titans secondary; Giants DE Justin Tuck, who has flourished on a revamped New York DL; Minnesota CB Antoine Winfield, who has made big plays while constantly being put out on an island; as well as do-everything Niners LB Patrick Willis.

Heisman Watch: Nov. 11

2008-11-11T22:07:00.002-05:00

By Nate Sandstrom

In short:
1. Michael Crabtree, So., WR, Texas Tech.
2. Graham Harrell, Sr., QB, Texas Tech.
3. Colt McCoy, Jr., QB, Texas.
4. Sam Bradford, So., QB, Oklahoma.
5. Scott McKillop, Sr., LB, Pitt.

Down in Lubbock, Texas Tech QB Graham Harrell and WR Michael Crabtree are battling each other in the race for the Heisman. The situation reminds me of New England's Randy Moss/Tom Brady MVP race last year.

I was in the minority in picking Randy Moss, and in this situation I show an apparent previously-unkown-to-me bias against QB's in taking Crabtree over Harrell. Partly I pick the sophomore wideout because I think that amazing TD that beat Texas was more Crabtree's catch than Harell's catch. I also like how he is second in the nation in scoring while playing in much bigger games than the leader, Michigna St. RB Javon Ringer (who has shriveled in the biggest spots).

Meanwhile, Oklahoma QB Sam Bradford and Texas QB Colt McCoy keep the Big 12 South well-represented on my mock ballot. I'm tempted to put Jeremy Maclin, #2 in the nation in all-purpose yards in the 5-slot, but I should probably leave the Big 12 for one slot and will select Pitt LB Scott McKillop, who is #2 in the nation in solo tackles, including 1.4 tackles for loss per game.

Elsewhere, Crabtree is not getting as much love at Heisman Pundit's straw poll or from ESPN's experts. However, ESPN's Rodney Gimore agrees with me in putting Crabtree #1.

Also, don't look now but junior Florida QB Tim Tebow is starting to make a strong run at defending his Heisman-ship from last year.

Hall in, Torrance out; Portis 50-50?

2008-11-11T06:10:00.003-05:00

By Nate Sandstrom

In case you haven't heard Clinton Portis is "50-50" to play this Sunday against Dallas, and RB Ladell Betts' status is also uncertain, Coach Zorn says.

Meanwhile, DeAngelo Hall has shown up at Redskins Park and the means key special teams member Leigh Torrence was cut. It is unclear to me why the team didn't place rookie WR Malcolm Kelly on IR as I can't imagine that he would be effective at this point in the season, even if he does play this year.

Why am I not enthused about the 'Skins signing DeAngelo Hall. Stats like this from today's Post:

Hall has 20 interceptions in 65 career games, including three interceptions in eight games this season, and has returned two for touchdowns in his career. He takes risks in coverage, and according to STATS Inc., was susceptible to major breakdowns with the Raiders. Offenses have thrown at Hall 66 times this season, completing 40 passes for 552 yards.

Goo.

FBS Top 25 and the week ahead

2008-11-10T22:23:00.005-05:00

By Nate Sandstrom

It looks like the story of the weekend for much of the national media was "Thank God Penn State lost so they are not in the national title game because they are from the Big Ten and therefore suck." They say that they played no one but cream puffs (I guess beating a team that beat USC, Oregon St., by 31 is nothing). On Fox Sports this morning, Craig Shemon was complaining because they "only" fell to seventh (without saying who they would fall behind).

Yeah, Penn State hasn't blown people away in recent weeks, but they are still a good team that can compete with everybody. I'm betting they show that in their bowl game, especially if they draw Oregon State, which controls their own destiny (more on this below).

Meanwhile, I keep Texas Tech in the top spot, mostly because Alabama's early season wins over teams like Clemson and Georgia look less impressive each week. Not that it matters because we essentially have a Final Four over the next month with Oklahoma getting a shot at the Red Raiders and Alabama and Florida now officially slated to meet in the SEC Title Game. With that out of the way, my new Top 25 Poll:

(W-L, previous rank)
1. Texas Tech (10-0, 1). Who was that team wearing TT helmets that held an opponent to 20?
2. Alabama (10-0, 2). Still undefeated, but they've been interesting lately.
3. Florida (8-1, 4). Clear #1 if Tebow converts that 4th&1 vs. Ole Miss.
4. Texas (9-1, 5). Scoreboard watching now.
5. Oklahoma (9-1, 7). Sooners still have great shot at Top 2 spot.
6. USC (8-1, 8). Trojans look for revenge at Stanford this week.
7. Penn State (9-1, 3). Still a top-flight team, whether or not anyone else believes.
8. Oklahoma St. (8-2, 6). Last week was a bad loss for a good young team.
9. Ohio State (8-2, 9). As good as they are now, the season ended at USC.
10. Utah (10-0, 11). Magical kind of season.
11. Georgia (8-2, 10). Why was this team preseason #1?
12. Boise State (9-0, 13). Will benefit in BCS picks because of two years ago, but shouldn't.
13. Missouri (8-2, 14). Should they even bother to show up to Big 12 Title game?
14. LSU (6-3, 15). Jealous much? "We want you back Saban!"
15. Ball State (9-0, 16). Watch them destroy Miami on Tuesday.
16. TCU (9-2, 12). Led against Utah for like 59 minutes on Thursday.
17. South Carolina (7-3, 17). Spurrier heads back to the Swamp. Hope he has a K this time.
18. North Carolina (7-2, 20). Will talk about Coach Davis moving elsewhere derail great season?
19. Michigan State (9-2, 19). Can they ever blow out a team?
20. Florida State (7-2, 25). Most overlooked 7-2 FSU team in years.
21. Cincinnati (7-2, NR). Who's Ben Mauck?
22. Oregon State (6-3, NR). Two of three losses to Top 10 teams.
23. BYU (9-1, NR). Still have a shot to ruin Utes season.
24. Pitt (7-2, NR). Off for a week before heading to Cincy, hosting WV in BCS bid.
25. Iowa (6-4, NR). Four losses by a combined 12 points.

A closer look within the conferences:
SEC -- Florida and Alabama wrapped up their respective divisons this week, but I don't expect either team to suffer from look-aheads. The Gators certainly have the tougher road with a visit from the Ol' Ball Coach this weekend and will have to travel to Tallahassee on the weekend after Thanksgiving.

Alabama gets Miss. State and Auburn at home, although the Tigers will be eager to keep their salvage their season by keeping their win streak going against the Tide.

Georgia beat LSU, and LSU beat South Carolina so they appear to have the 3 and 4 spots for bowl bids in the conference lined up without an upset. I think South Carolina still has a shot at playing on New Year's as long as they beat Clemson.

Meanwhile, an AP article reports witnesses linking SEC smack talk to murder.

Big Ten -- It's a three-team race for the Big Ten BCS bid, although Michigan State seems to have the longest shot as they need not only to top Penn State in East Lansing in two weeks but also have Ohio State lose either at Illinois or vs. Michigan.

The Buckeyes will be looking for revenge in Champaign this weekend, but who knows which version of the offense will show up? Ditto for the Illini, who seem to live and die by how many times Juice Williams gives the ball away.

Penn State just needs to win to take the title, and expect them to do so. Iowa probably now has the inside track for the conference's fourth bowl spot, but they've been so up-and-down recently that they may lose at Minnesota if Eric Decker is healthy for the Gophers.

Big 12 -- The most exciting division in college football sure has plenty of great match-ups left ahead of them. Oklahoma State was officially eliminated this weekend, but they still will have a chance to upset Oklahoma on Nov. 29. That's a week after Oklahoma hosts Texas Tech in a bid to take the division. Meanwhile, the Horns just need to beat Kansas and A&M and hope the other three beat each other.

Meanwhile, Missouri clinches the North with a win this weekend over Iowa State, who has lost eight straight, including their 0-6 conference record.

ACC -- Hard to say this division is any clearer after the past weekend, although I am definitely eyeballing the possibility of being in College Park for Florida State's trip to Maryland in two weekends. No one in the Atlantic is better than 4-2, while no one in the Coastal is better than 3-2, although I think Florida State and North Carolina has emerged as the best team in each respective divison. But we know from this season who is the ACC favorite changes quickly. One thing's for sure, it's not Clemson. How's that coaching change working out? (Hint: they were eliminated from division contention after losing in the Bowden Bowl, er, Florida St. game).

Pac-10 -- USC may be recognized as the best team in the conference, yet is Oregon State who controls its own Rose Bowl destiny. By virtue of the Beavers' win over USC, OSU (5-1 in conference) can get the Rose Bowl bid if they beat Cal at home, win at Arizona and finish the year with a home win in their Civil War with the Ducks. It will be a tough road, but I'll be rooting for them. Remember last year's argument about how Georgia was the best team in the country, even though they didn't win their conference? Wouldn't that be fun to see again.

Meanwhile, if the Trojans have only Stanford, Notre Dame and UCLA left. I know they lost to Stanford last year and UCLA in '06, but I wouldn't be too concerned if I was (though I never could be) a Trojans fan.

Big East -- What an upset by Cincinnati, last weekend, though watching the line all week it looked like some people were certainly betting on it. The win is also significant because it sets up a round-robin like tournament in the last few weeks in the race for the Big East Championship. West Virginia, Pitt and Cincinnati are all 3-1. Pitt is off this week before going to Cincy on the 22nd and hosting W. Virginia on the 29th.

Remember when Rutgers started the season 1-5? Well, they're now 3-2 with a win over Pitt, so they will be hoping the three front-runners fall victim to upsets and they can sneak a share of the title.

Mountain West -- Speaking of great finishes, check out the last two weeks in the Rockies:

First, the standings:
1. Utah 6-0
2. TCU 6-1
3. BYU 5-1
4. Air Force 5-1

Now, the schedule:

This weekend:
BYU at Air Force
Utah at San Diego St.

Next weekend:
Air Force at TCU
BYU at Utah

Check your listings to see if you get Mountain West's network. I've watched two late-night Saturday games on it already.

WAC -- Boise State can officialluy clinch the conference title with a win at Idaho combined with a Nevada loss vs. San Jose State. However, if Nevada holds on, they will host Boise with a chance to keep their bid a live the following week.

Since we mentioned Rutgers' turnaround above, we should probably mention that the team that beat them opening day. Fresno State, once ranked, gave up 472 rushing yards to Nevada last week and fell to 2-3 in conference and 5-4 overall.

Conference USA -- Tulsa had the week off after a disappointing loss at Arkansas ended their perfect season. They have no more time to sulk, as they head to Houston and Marshall, both still alive for CUSA bids in two of their final three.

Marshall has a tougher road to climb after a heart-breaking OT loss at division-leading East Carolina on Saturday. Most of the teams still have three conference games left so there's a lot yet to be decided.

The biggest game this weekend is Tulsa at Houston. A Cougars win would create a three-way tie at the top of CUSA West with Rice joining these two teams at 5-1. Tulsa already beat Rice, who is off this week, so a win here would almost wrap-up division.

MAC -- Ball State continues its attempt to become the first MAC BCS team Tuesday night at Miami. But their real battle is the next two, as they must head to Central Michigan, who also is 5-0 in the MAC West next week. Then they host Western Michigan, which is still technically alive for a MAC West bid at 5-1, but needs help.

In the MAC East things are wide open with Buffalo, Akron and Bowling Green at 3-2 and Temple at 2-3; however, whoever wins this thing isn't likely to beat the West champ.

Sun Belt -- The winner of the conference will probably be decided in two weeks when 4-1 Troy hosts surprising 4-0 Louisiana-Lafayette in two weeks.

Week 10 NFL Lockdown and Miscellaneous Statements

2008-11-09T08:30:00.003-05:00

Lock of the week - Green Bay +2.5 at Minnesota. Something is fishy about this line, and that scares me. But with Jared Allen out and the road team being 10-3 against the spread in the last 13, I'll take the team I already thought was better.

Baltimore +1 at Houston. I don't want to gynx this, but Baltimore has quietly become 6-2 against the spread and a decent road team. While Joe Flacco appears to be coming into his own, look for the Ravens to run the ball well today. They've been averaging 150 yards/game and Houston is giving up 126. Meanwhile, Baltimore is only giving up 64. That's a recipe for success. If Rosenfels gives up the ball, this game is over.

Atlanta -1 vs New Orleans. New Orleans' defense blows. I like Atlanta, have all year. Michael Turner and Matt Ryan will have another big day.

Quick Notes:
Joe Flacco is a golden god
The Giants are the #1 team, not the Titans. (I'll be starting my own BCS-type rating system soon for the NFL)
ACC college football stinks.
I'm setting the over/under on Deangelo Hall personal fouls for the rest of the season with the skins at 4.
Ben Roethlesberger will be forced to miss significant playing time this year if they let him start this week. Not that the Colts will do it, but the Steelers should let him rest his arm. If they keep throwing him out there, he's going to dislodge it or worse. Fingers crossed!
Note to Hank Baskett, when the 82 year old ex boyfriend of your fiance is going to be giving her away at the wedding (which will be held at his house!), you might want to reconsider.

Lockdown V. 11.perfect

2008-11-08T08:27:00.003-05:00

By Nate Sandstrom

After dropping to the negative side on the $100/game strategy at the end of October, I pulled a perfect 3-0 ATS to the start November. And had it not been for a missed field goal at the end of regulation by Duke, I would have hit the upset special at nearly 3-1 as well.

Here's the updated standings:
Nate: 18-14 (+$260)
Mark: 9-10 (-$200)

Upset special:
Nate: 3-7 (+$340)
Mark: 1-4 (-$190)

Toss-Up
Nate and Mark tied at 1-1

But that's enough bragging, neither Mark or I are feeling great about this weekend. But here's the few winners I got:

Arizona at Washington (under 51)

With these two sputtering offenses and rain in the forecast, I'm going under all the way, even though the total is moving up.

Maybe there's something I don't know, but here's what I do: ASU has been outyardaged in their last five, three times by more than 150. The Huskies meanwhile have been outyardaged in all eight of their miserable games this season, including by the last two when that margin increased to over 300.

Check out Western U.S. Fox Spors Networks for this classic.

Pick: Arizona State 21 Washington 10

New Mexico (-5.5) at UNLV

At a quick glance, UNLV is just a hair from a good season. They got off to a 3-1 start and despite a five-game losing streak lost by just 1 vs. Air Force and 7 at BYU. However, look closer and you'll notice that they've been outyardaged in six of their last eight games, including last week's TCU debacle. The Rebels may be fired up because they need to win out, but redshirt freshman QB Mike Clausen will be making his first start. Take the Lobos and their superior ground game.

Pick: New Mexico 26 UNLV 10

Upset Special:

Marsahall (+250) at East Carolina

On Sept. 7, this pick would have looked mad. Marsahll was fresh off a 5-TD shallacking at Wisconsin while the Pirates had just upset Virginia Tech and blow out West Virginia. But in recent weeks, these teams have gone opposite directions and now they battle for the lead in CUSA East.

The Herd upset the Pirates last year to keep them out of the conference championship, look for it to happen again.

Pick: Marshall 31 East Carolina 21

Yuck!

2008-11-04T08:32:00.001-05:00

Just woke up and realized last night wasn't a dream. Skins suck. Skins fans who sell their tickets to Steelers fans suck. I suck.

--Nate

Post-Week 10 rankings in brief

2008-11-03T06:41:00.002-05:00

New rankings are on the sidebar. As you can see, I have no problem with Texas Tech leaping Penn State since I have them jumping above Alabama as well.

In I-AA, I'd like to recognize #2 Appalachian State's 10-TD show on Friday against Wofford, who I previously ranked #3. Top-ranked James Madison held ground though by putting a beatdown on Delaware.

Off to MNF tonight! Go Skins!

--Nate

Lockdown: Week 10

2008-11-01T09:52:00.005-04:00

By Nate Sandstrom

Alright, finally a Saturday morning where I'm not traveling or working and can put my full attention on lockdown. After a fast start, Mark and I have been losing our shirts lately, so we need to turn it around. Here's to a perfect weekend!

Updated standings:
Nate: 15-14 (-$40)
Mark: 9-10 (-$200)

Upset special:
Nate: 3-6 (+$440)
Mark: 1-4 (-$190)

Toss-Up
Nate and Mark tied at 1-1

Nate's picks:
Florida (-6.5) vs. Georgia

Forget about Georgia stomping on the Gator after last year's game, Florida is simply a better team. They've scored 30 points in every contest except their 26-3 domination of the Canes.

We have to acknowledge that UGa just put up 52 against LSU, yet the Bulldog attack has proven more inconsistent over the year. If you can contain Knowson Moreno, you can contain the offense. Expect the Gators to do just that.

Pick: Florida 35 Georgia 20

Washington at USC (-46)

The Trojans have no class. The Huskies have to talent. Uh-oh! USC just beat the even worse Washington State Cougars 69-0, while Washington was just blown out by Notre Dame.

Not much too watch here but see how little Ty Willingham cares when Pete Carroll passes on first down in the fourth quarter while up by 6 TD's.

Pick: USC 56 Washington 0

New England (+6) at Indianapolis

I've said it since Week 1, the Colts suck. They still have flashes of being the old Colts, but outside of their blowout over the Ravens they have done nothing.

Randy Moss is on the injury report, but he'll play and play well in prime time per usual. Half team is on the injury report in fact, but we all know Belichick is a liar.

My only worry is that Belichick will outsmart himself and not run the ball (see Ravens game plan vs. Colts). Even then, I'll go back to my theory of the Colts sucking.

My pick: New England 26 Indianapolis 17

Upset Special:

Duke (+275) at Wake Forest

Not much of a payoff on this one, but Duke has been good to us here on lockdown, taking down UVa. with the points and beating Vandy outright last week. Unlike the overvalued Dukey basketball team, Blue Devil football seems to be overlooked by the public. They are veteran team with good leadership under new coach David Cutcliffe.

Meanwhile, Wake Forest has imploded since they beat Florida State. They are 1-3 in the last four, with the only victory coming against fellow flop Clemson Tigers.

Pick: Duke 17 Wake Forest 13

Power Ratings: Halloween

2008-10-30T22:40:00.004-04:00

By Nate Sandstrom

My Internet connection has sucked all week. So here you go, my ratings. I'm tired and don't really have anything else to say right now. Maybe tomorrow night; I'm plan-less and costume-less for Halloween. I hope I have candy left over.

1. Tennessee (7-0, 1). Still undefeated so still #1.
2. N.Y. Giants (6-1, 2). How seriously will they take Cowboys this week?
3. Washington (6-2, 3). 'Skins most-hyped regular season game in years on MNF.
4. Pittsburgh (5-2, 7). Who knew you need a backup long snapper?
5. Carolina (6-2, 6). Need to another road win to really impress me.
6. Buffalo (5-2, 4). Don't want to lose more division games.
7. Tampa Bay (5-3, 5). Didn't convert early chances against Big D.
8. Arizona (4-3, 8). How long until typical Cards meltdown?
9. Dallas (5-3, 15). Got a win they badly needed.
10. New England (5-2, 10). Back in first, based on tie-breaker.
11. Chicago (4-3, 11). Looking for a break-out week from Devin Hester.
12. Philadelphia (4-3, 12). Best last-place team in NFL.
13. New Orleans (4-4, 13). Got a win against a team with an even worse D.
14. Green Bay (4-3, 17). Starting to put slide behind them.
15. San Diego (3-5, 9). Norv, firing your D coordinator will not save you.
16. Baltimore (4-3, 18). In playoffs if season was over today.
17. Atlanta (4-3, 16). A polite hand for over-acheivement thus far.
18. Denver (4-3, 19). Everyone else is picking on the defense, why should I?
19. Miami (3-4, 22 ). Who can figure this team out?
20. Cleveland (3-4, 23 ). Turning slow start around.
21. Jacksonville (3-4, 14). Last year was their chance.
22. New York Jets (4-3, 20). Nearly lost to Raiders and Chiefs back-to-back.
23. Minnesota (3-4, 21). Time to rally is now or never.
24. Indianapolis (3-4, 25). Living on reputation.
25. St. Louis (2-5, 27). Win over Cards gets them back in playoff hunt.
26. Houston (3-4, 24). Would be in second if they hadn't tanked Colts game.
27. Oakland (2-5, 28). Uhhhh ...... Running back platoon exciting for fantasy teams.
28. Seattle (2-5, 30). Could this be the season saved by Seneca?
29. San Francisco (2-6, 29). A wise man once told me, "Keep your pants on, dog!"
30. Kansas City (1-6, 29). Losing with integrity?
31. Detroit (0-7, 32). At least they're covering the spread.
32. Cincinnati (0-8, 31). If they just go 7-1 they'll make my prediction.

Week 9 Jessup Lockdown

2008-10-25T10:33:00.002-04:00

Believe it or not, I was planning on taking Duke in the upset special! Nate's already done that, so I'll have to switch up my game plan.

In order to break out of my funk, I'm also going different and doing an over/under this week:

Over (52.5) USC/Arizona
I don't believe USC's defense is as good as advertised. I think when they face a quality offense, they can be scored on, just as they were at Oregon State. I'm not saying they will give up 30, but I'm counting on them to give up at least 20 and then score 35.

Alabama (-5) at Tennessee
I expect Bama to slip up soon, but I don't see it happening here, against Tennesse's paltry offense. The Tide will get several takeaways and protect the ball. Bama 27, Tennessee 12

Tennessee (-4) vs. Indianapolis
Indy stinks. They beat the Ravens, that's it. Look for the Titans to roll all over them and knock Peyton Manning around like a ragdoll. Titans 24, Indy 12

Upset Special
St. Louis Rams +290 at New England
I'm not saying this because I suddenly believe in St. Louis under Jim Haslett. I'm saying it because I don't buy into New England. I believe they can be run on and Steven Jackson is going to have a big day. If the Rams' defense can sit on a safe cover 2 and keep Moss out of the game, they should be able to take this game. New England is just too injured. Rams 24, Pats 21

Lockdown: Week 8

2008-10-24T16:23:00.003-04:00

By Nate Sandstrom

I got to make this quick or I'm going to miss my flight. Here we go:

Kentucky +25.5 at Florida
Ga. Tech -12 vs. Virginia
Eagles -9 vs. Falcons
Upset Special: Duke +320 at Vanderbilt

NFL Power Ratings: October 24

2008-10-24T00:30:00.006-04:00

By Nate Sandstrom
According to my preseason picks, the Chargers were to meet the Saints in the Super Bowl; however, with these two teams combining for eight losses it looks like a team playing a regular season game in London may never go to a Super Bowl. This week's power ratings spot some other trends.

1. Tennessee (6-0, ranked 1 last week). Collins is 2-0 vs. teams he played in 2000 playoffs.
2. N.Y. Giants (5-1, 2). 0-1 ATS in week following home game against West Coast team.
3. Washington (5-2, 3). 0-1 SU this year against winless teams with 4+ losses.
4. Buffalo (5-1, 6). 0-1 SU when first-round draft picks quarterback majority of team's snaps.
5. Tampa Bay (5-2, 4). Face former MVP QB Brad Johnson, who is 3-1 SU against teams he previously played for.
6. Carolina (5-2, 10). 4-0 SU and 3-0-1 ATS at home this year. Tough to win homefield for playoffs when you are 1-2 on the road.
7. Pittsburgh (5-1, 9). 5-1 SU in the season that occurs after a Pittsburgh resident is jailed for impersonating players in football/towel-crazy town.
8. Arizona (4-2, 5). Cards are 1-8 ATS the last nine in Week 8. Objection, relevance? Overruled.
9. San Diego (3-4, 7). 3-3-1 ATS this year. Man, does Norv make good teams mediocre.
10. New England (4-2, 18). Were 6-0 ATS at this point last year.
11. Chicago (4-3, 14). Undefeated ATS this season when giving up 40+ points.
12. Philadelphia (3-3, 12). 3-0 ATS this season when Akers drinks from the Fountain of Youth before the game.
13. New Orleans (3-4 , 11). Now 11-12 SU since being considered Super Bowl contenders.
14. Jacksonville (3-3, 17). 1-0 ATS since Matt Jones sentenced to drug court, not prison.
15. Dallas (4-3, 8). Lost last two SU, see 2000 Redskins; Brad Johnson was on that team too.
16. Atlanta (4-2, 13). 3-0 ATS on turf this year. Why don't they play Philly at the Vet?
17. Green Bay (4-3, ). 1-0 ATS in games when Favre tries to coach opponents.
18. Baltimore (3-3, 21). Ravens are 3-0 ATS when Flacco does not throw a pick. Raiders DBs have seven picks thus far; so does Flacco.
19. Denver (4-3, 19). 1-0 ATS when ref Ed Hochuli forgets where he is and what is going on while calling games.
20. N.Y. Jets (3-3, 16). 2-7 last nine ATS vs. teams with losing records. Now play KC, which has nearly the losingest record.
21. Minnesota (3-4, 26). Undefeated ATS under Coach Childress when game counts for nothing.
22. Miami (2-4, 20). 2-0 SU against teams in 2007 AFC title game. 0-4 SU against teams not in that game. Have just one game left vs. teams in that game.
23. Cleveland (2-4, 22). 4-2 ATS this year, which clearly makes the money worth it.
24. Houston (2-4, 24). 1-0 when you use the teaser in games in which Sage Rosenfels starts.
25. Indianapolis (3-3, 15). Should be 1-5.
26. San Francisco (2-5 , 25). Teams who've changed coaches during this season are 3-1 ATS under new direction.
27. St. Louis (2-4, 30). 2-0 ATS under Haslett; also 2-0 ATS against Dallas ans Washington when they give the ball to St. Louis D three or more times a game.
28. Oakland (1-5, 27). Nice kick in OT last week, but Raiders are still 0-1 ATS when attempting FG over 70 yards.
29. Kansas City (1-5, 28). 0-5 SU when not playing Denver run defense.
30. Seattle (1-5, 29). 1-0 ATS when Seneca Wallace starts.
31. Cincinnati (0-7, 31). Does it really matter?
32. Detroit (0-6, 32). Won last 2 ATS, proof the curse of Bobby Layne has ended.

Heimsan Watch: Boy, is Javon Ringer out of this thing

2008-10-23T19:50:00.004-04:00

By Nate Sandstrom

Well, as soon as I went against the national tide and put Javon Ringer on top and Colt McCoy third, this past Saturday reminded me again that I may be an idiot(.blogspot.com).

The same Ohio State team that nearly lost to Wisconsin two weeks ago held Ringer to 69 yards and kept the nation's leading scorer out of the end zone in a 45-7 romp. Ringer #1, err.... wrong.

Meanwhile, young Colt McCoy completes 29 of 32 passes (not a typo), runs for 2 TDs and throws for 2 more in the biggest game of the day. Needless to say, I have a new #1.

Sorry, Iowa RB Shonn Greene, stats accumulated against the Wisconsin D don't count. Illinois QB Juice Williams, that applies to you this weekend.

I changed up the links this week to bring you to hype Web sites rather than stat pages. Enjoy!

1. Colt McCoy, Jr., QB, Texas (Last week: 3rd). Smart and athletic, according to this Web site. What a catch!
2. Sam Bradford, QB, Oklahoma. (Not ranked). Follows up loss to Texas with 468-yard effort. And has the same Web site design as Colt McCoy. Pretty much guarentees they will be 1/2 in the voting.
3. Dez Bryant, Soph., WR, Oklahoma St. (Not ranked). Posts his second 200-yard game of the season in advance of match-up with Texas. Be his friend.
4. Scott McKillop, Sr., LB, Pitt. (5th). Piles up five tackles quicker than it takes my computer to load his Pitt Web site. How about a wiki Web page. Make up your own stories, then make them come true a la tonight's Always Sunny in Philadelphia.
5. Chase Daniel, Sr., QB, Missouri. (4th). Drops a spot for second straight loss and his Web site's failure to mention that Mizzou lost at Texas.

ESPN's poll here. HeismanPundit's here.

Coverage delayed

2008-10-21T19:13:00.001-04:00

I have two back-to-back h-e-double-hockey-stickish days so all content is to be updated on Thursday.

--Nate

FBS Rankings: Oct. 20

2008-10-20T12:34:00.002-04:00

By Nate Sandstrom

I thought Texas was ripe for a fall this weekend, but boy was I wrong. The Horns' 8-touchdown showcase in a 56-31 romp over Mizzou has me moving them over Penn State this week.

I still have the Lions #2 ahead of Alabama, who for the second straight week held on for a narrow victory. Still, an SEC win is an SEC win so that keeps the Tide at #3.

Now the biggest question will be what would happen if my #4 Oklahoma State (#6 BCS) were to upset the 'Horns in Austin, though that doesn't seem likely to happen.

Elsewhere in the poll, Ohio State jumps back into the rankings after demolishing Michigan State. Meanwhile, Tulsa may be looking for a BCS bid as they move up the rankings; however, they also need Utah to lose in the Mountain West.

1. Texas (7-0, 2). Won the biggest game of the week back-to-back. Now for one more.
2. Penn State (8-0, 1). Need a big win over suddenly resurgent Buckeyes this week.
3. Alabama (7-0, 3). Should still be able to handle Vols on Saturday, who come off best game.
4. Oklahoma St. (7-0, 4). Have confidence to beat Texas, but not sure about talent.
5. Oklahoma (6-1, 5). Actually fourth in Big 12 South standings.
6. Florida (6-1, 6). Tebow looks to keep last breakout game going.
7. Georgia (6-1, 8). Next two weeks (at LSU, vs. Florida) will decide title hopes.
8. LSU (5-1, 9). Loads of talent but no easy wins since mid-Septemer.
9. USC (5-1, 10). Still in BCS race with SEC and Big 12 teams playing each other.
10. Texas Tech (7-0, 11). You have to give them credit for wining.
11. Utah (8-0, 15). This may not last; have to beat TCU and BYU still.
12. Missouri (5-2, 7). Will still get to Big 12 title game.
13. Pittsburgh (5-1, 20). Opening loss to Bowling Green cost them a spot in the Top 10.
14. Ohio State (7-1, NR). Looked like Ohio State of old for first time all year. Now get Penn St.
15. Tulsa (7-0, 16). Tulsa just scored on UTEP again.
16. Boise State (6-0, 17). Wish they were playing one more BCS team to get a gauge.
17. Ball State (7-0, 18). MAC West may be better than half of Big Ten.
18. South Florida (6-1, 21). Selvie's back, but Bulls now need Pitt to lose.
19. Vanderbilt (5-2, 23). Move up via good effort at Gerogia.
20. Sotuh Carolina (5-3, 24). Replace Ole Miss as best 3-loss team in nation.
21. Kansas (5-2, 22). Played better than I expected at Oklahoma.
22. Boston College (5-1, NR). How does this team always win?
23. Cincinnati (5-1, NR). Only loss is Oklahoma, can backup QB keep them in it?
24. TCU (7-1, NR). Showed BYU who was better 3-letter school.
25. Kentucky (5-2, NR). Underrated, stout defense keeps them competing against anyone.

Other rankings.

Week 8 Jessup Lockdown

2008-10-18T09:35:00.002-04:00

I, like Nate, suffered my first slaughter last weekend. But those are too be expected. Market corrections, we'll call them. Think of this week's picks as buying low! Apparently that is supposed to make you feel better. With that theme in mind, my first pick is a low spread:

Wake Forest (-2) at Maryland
The conventional wisdom around Maryland is that they play down to their lesser competition and get up for the big games. I'm not sure I'm a believer in that. I think Cal just came to town and played a horrible game and the time differential really hurt them. The one thing that would concern me in this pick is that the Terps clearly play better at home, averaging 43 points scored at home and only 11.3 on the road! However, Wake Forest is a good road team (2-0) with a good defense that is only allowing 15 points a game. Take Wake and give the 2. They'll put another nail in Maryland's slowly built coffin Wake 24 - MD 12

Texas (-4.5) vs Missouri
Look for the markets to finally settle this week and a #1 won't get knocked off. The Tigers have only played one road game this year. Yes, they won by 35 in Nebraska, but I look at Texas as the more tested team and therefore their numbers and performance is more reliable. They won't look ahead the way other #1s have this year. Texas 41 - Missouri 30

Tampa Bay (-10.5) vs. Seattle
Finally, I'm getting on Tampa's bandwagon. Let's hope I'm not buying high. Look, Seattle is losing its games by an average of 18.5 points. Tampa Bay is winning its games by an average of 10. Tampa is a superior home team. Seattle is traveling across the country, 1-4 against the spread, and the last time they came east against a good NFC team, they lost 44-6. Tampa 35 - Seattle 21

Upset Special
Iowa State (+7.5) vs. Nebraska
Iowa State has played a tough schedule with three of the last four on the road. Nebraska has only had to play on the road once and that was last week. So now they have two in a row on the road. Both teams are on a downslide and one of them has to recover. This will be a battle of the wills and I like the home team to come out on top. Iowa State 24 - Nebraska 21

Lockdown: Week 8 Edition

2008-10-17T10:33:00.003-04:00

By Nate Sandstrom

Early last Saturday I was talking to my buddy Jim Butts and he commented how well I was doing on lockdown. Clearly he was trying to jinx me because I went 1-4 for the weekend. At least that was better than Mark, although he beat me in the Texas-Oklahoma toss-up.

Follow me at your own risk, but I will hope to bounce back. In Denver for a wedding this weekend so you get a rushed edition as I get ready for my flight. I'm banking on more top-ranked teams being upset, and not just because I want to be proved right by putting Penn State #1 this week. To keep that thought going, I'm starting with the upset special:

Mississippi (+375) at Alabama

The Rebels are the best damned 3-3 team in the nation. Their three losses are by a combined 15 points. That close game experience will pay off this week and they will pull their second upset of a Top 10 and previously undefeated team.

Alabama's in the midst of the weakest part of the schedule and this is the perfect spot for them to so complacency. I know I took this same theory in taking Kentucky over 'bama, but get this one in quick, the payoff is falling like a rock.

Pick: Mississippi 31 Alabama 29

Missouri at Texas (-4.5)

Always take the team with their backs against the wall, right? Does that still apply when you're going with a team that hasn't won in Austin since the 1890's? Chalk last week up to a look-ahead game for Missouri and the last century of their trips to Texas as a look-ahead century. Serioulsy though, Missouri is really good and Texas is fat and happy after beating Oklahoma. The Tigers will be motivated to stay in the national title hunt while the 'Horns will have a short stay at #1. Don't worry Texas fans, you should have a crack at the #2 OSU Pokes the next week.

Pick: Missouri 35 Texas 28

Georgia Tech (-2) at Clemson

How did that mid-season coaching change work out for Auburn (the only game we had right here at lockdown) last week? Poor Tommy Bowden? Sure, Georgia Tech was outyardaged by Gardner-Webb and barely won, but chalk that up as a look ahead they still won. Clemson has a new QB, a new coach and Spiller is out.

Pick: Georgia Tech 27 Clemson 13

Minnesota at Chicago (-3)

A-Pete should top 100 yards, but count on the Bears sacking Gus Frerotte at least four times. Devin Hester will torch the Vikes again and I will put Kyle Orton on next week's first edition of MVP Watch.

Pick: Chicago 26 Minnesota 14

Wo!

2008-10-17T10:20:00.002-04:00

The Detroit Lions have been outyardaged by 170+ per game.

NFL Power Ratings Oct. 16: A day late, a dollar short

2008-10-16T23:18:00.006-04:00

By Nate Sandstrom
After the NFC East went 1-3 over the weekend everything I thought I knew about the order of the NFL is gone. Talking to a few people at the bar last night, it seems like no one can easily identify who they think the top five teams in the league are.

Here's my crack, they it may be the least confident I've ever been in these rankings.

(W-L, previous rank)
1. Tennessee (5-0, 4 ). By virtue of being last unbeaten.
2. N.Y. Giants (4-1, 1). Is old Eli back or was it just a bad day?
3. Washington (4-2, 2). They won Rams game in every way but the score.
4. Tampa Bay (4-2, 9). Two drives from 6-0.
5. Arizona (4-2, 18). Two wins against my top 10.
6. Buffalo (4-1, 8). Bye week was well-timed.
7. San Diego (3-3, 10). Finally beat the Pats.
8. Dallas (4-2, 3). Could the team of destiny finish last in the NFC East?
9. Pittsburgh (4-1, 6). Practically clinched AFC North already.
10. Carolina (4-2, 5). Hey, one loss in six years at Tampa ain't that bad.
11. New Orleans (3-3, 19). Just wait 'til Brees gets Colston and Shockey back.
12. Philadelphia (3-3, 12). Whose career is ending faster, David Akers or Matt Stover?
13. Atlanta (4-2, 24). Can't believe I'm doing this, but they've earned this spot.
14. Chicago (3-3, 7). Hester starting to produce on offense.
15. Indianapolis (3-2, 22). Nice win vs. Ravens, but I don't take that much from it.
16. N.Y. Jets (3-2, 17). Definitely in the playoff hunt.
17. Jacksonville (3-3, 13). Up and down unless they keep it on the ground.
18. New England (3-2, 16). Belichick is a gen.... oh, never mind.
19. Denver (4-2, 11). Fast start ending quickly.
20. Miami (2-3, 15). All this Wildcat talk. They did lose to the Texans.
21. Baltimore (2-3, 14). Four of next five on the road. Need to win two of them.
22. Cleveland (2-3 29). Thought preseason was eight games, not four.
23. Green Bay (3-3, 20). Peaked in Week 2.
24. Houston (1-4, 28). Now they got the first one out of the way will they keep it going?
25. San Francisco (2-4, 23). O'Sullivan was throwing the ball like punts in fourth against Iggs.
26. Minnesota (3-3, 21). Strangely, are likely to be in first if they somehow win at Chicago.
27. Oakland (1-4, 26). Who cares?
28. Kansas City (1-4, 27). Ditto.
29. Seattle (1-4, 25). Watch out for the Seneca Wallace/Charlie Frye platoon.
30. St. Louis (1-4, 32). Enjoy that win Rams, it may be their last this year.
31. Cincinnati (0-6, 30 ). Why does anyone still cover what Chad Johnson says?
32. Detroit (0-5, 31). Look Kitna, Greise got hurt and Garcia's playing so maybe you have hope.

Heisman Watch: Oct. 14, 2008

2008-10-14T20:10:00.003-04:00

By Nate Sandstrom

I don't know who to put at the top of my mock ballot this week. I figured it would be easy, with the winning QB of the Oklahoma-Texas taking the top spot. However, I kind of feel like Texas WR Jordan Shipley was the true star of the biggest game of the season thus far. I can't put Shipley in yet though because he doesn't rank among the leaders in any major state categories.

Still Texas QB Colt McCoy took the lead this week at Heisman Pundit and at ESPN's poll. However, he held a narrow edge over losing Oklahoma QB Sam Bradford who still tossed 5 TDs.

Meanwhile, the leading favorite at most polls, Chase Daniel, accounted for 450 yards against a now Top 10 team but also threw 3 picks in a 3-point home loss.

The Big 12 will be home to the next Heisman Bowl — Heisman Bowl 2008 II — when Daniel and Missouri head to Texas to take on McCoy and Texas.

Yet, I'm turning to the Big 10 for the top of this week's ballot. Michigan State RB Javon Ringer takes the lead after a big-time showing in a road win at previously undefeated Northwestern. Meanwhile, the QB of my now-#1 Penn State, Daryll Clark, joins the watch for the first time after he led the Lions to a 48-7 thrashing of my Badgers.

Pitt senior LB Scott McKillop also joins the watch off a bye week. McKillop moves in based on monster show in upset of South Florida two weeks ago and David Johnson barely leading Tulsa past SMU this week.

On another note, North Carolina WR and super retunrer Brandon Tate, a longshot for the Heisman but a favorite of mine, is out for the year after injuring his knee on a punt return on Saturday. He averaged nearly 22 yards everytime he touched the ball.

This week's vote:

1. Javon Ringer, Sr., RB, Michigan State. 158.9 ypg rushing (#2 nationally), 14 TD's (#1).
2. Daryll Clark, Sr., QB, Penn St. 160.6 passer rating (#11), 10TD/2 Int. 145 yads rushing, 6 TDs.
3. Colt McCoy, Jr., QB, Texas. 189 passer rating (#4), 79.3 % completion, 17/3. 348 rush, 4 TDs.
4. Chase Daniel, Sr. , QB, Missouri. 180.5 rating (#5), 76% completion, 16/4 ratio.
5. Scott McKillop, Sr., LB, Pitt. 7.4 solo tackles per game (#2), 1.8 TFL per game (#6).

Top 25 Rankings — Oct. 13

2008-10-13T23:27:00.002-04:00

By Nate Sandstrom
Well, this was the first weekend where the national championship race has really begun taking shape. If either Penn State, Texas or Alabama finish undefeated they should have a go chance of going to the national title game. I consider all three essentially tied for #1, but Penn State's continued dominance of their opponents gets them the top spot.

Meanwhile, my #4, Oklahoma State, got jobbed in the national polls. They are at #8 in the AP and #10 in the USA Today despite winning on the road at #3 Missouri. They honestly might have had a better win than Texas. Another victim of not having pre-season hype. Texas Tech barely got past Nebraska at home, yet remain ahead of the Cowboys in both polls.

The rest of the rankings (record, previous rank):

1. Penn State (7-0, 5). Easiest road of all contenders the rest of the way.
2. Texas (6-0, 6). Little time to celebrate as their next 3 against Mizzou, Ok. St. and Tex. Tech.
3. Alabama (6-0, 2). Tide get leaped by virtue of UGa. barely beating Tennessee.
4. Oklahoma St. (6-0, 4). Will Mike Gundy blame the media when they finally lose? He's 41.
5. Oklahoma (5-1, 1). Can get right back in it if they run the table in stacked Big 12.
6. Florida (5-1, 11). Tebow finally gets it going.
7. Missouri (5-1, 3). Win at Texas would put them right back in title contention.
8. Georgia (5-1, 10). You'd like to see them blow somebody out before the really move up.
9. LSU (4-1, 4). Followed losses last year with near losses.
10. USC (4-1, 9). Still have another loss in them.
11. Texas Tech (6-0, 7). Overtime win vs. Nebraska only slightly better than loss.
12. BYU (6-0, 14). Thursday trip to TCU will be key to national opinion of Cougars.
13. California (4-1, 20). Undefeated in Pacific Time Zone.
14. Michigan State (6-1, 22). Smelling Roses in East Lansing.
15. Utah (7-0, 15). They beat Oregon St. and USC didn't; beat Mich. by less than Toledo did.
16. Tulsa (6-0, 16). Easy schedule, yes. Better than last year Hawaii though.
17. Boise State (5-0, 17). Outside shot at BCS still.
18. Ball State (7-0, 18). All games in November on national TV; could help Cards move up.
19. Virginia Tech (5-1, 19). Top 10 without ECU loss.
20. Pitt (4-1, 21). Control destiny for BCS bid.
21. S. Florida (5-1, 23). Will they collapse following a loss like last year?
22. Kansas (5-1, 24). Should start trying in the first quarter too.
23. Vanderbilt (5-1, 8). They can't finish 5-7, right?
24. South Carolina (5-2, 25). May be Tiger food in LSU's rebound- game this week.
25. North Carolina (5-1, NR). QB injury against VT cost them shot at undefeated season, and maybe division title.

The Burgundy and Gold? Don't worry about them.

2008-10-13T14:05:00.001-04:00

By Nate Sandstrom
Following a 19-17 home loss to the previously winless Rams, Clinton Portis was among those quick to write off the loss as a situation where the Redskins fell victim to the so-called "trap" game.

"The headlines got good. We were saying 'Yeah, we're here.' We've got three games we can win," Portis told reporters at a press conference. "And we overlooked a team today that came in here ready to play," Portis said.

However, some other Redskins players, and I, could not disagree more. They lost because of three critical turnovers, poor pass blocking at times and horrendous punting.

On the first count, fumbles happen. It is rare that a pass is going to be deflected, your guard is going to catch it and then fumble it, and then the defense is going to recover it and run it back 80 yards for a TD. All that happened and that was the difference in the game.

Of course the fact that the Rams D-line was able to penetrate the line and tip Campbell's pass spoke to some of the larger pass blocking problems Washington had yesterday. And by Washington I mean Jon Jansen.

Jansen has been a great Redskin and I really like him. But he clearly lacks the quickness he once possessed and keeps getting beat to the outside too much, like the time the Rams sacked Campbell on 3rd and 1. Heyer will probably miss another week though before he can reclaim the starting spot.

Meanwhile, craptacular punter Durant Brooks could be replaced or put on IR. The Redskins will hold auditions this week. I don't know why they didn't just keep Derrick Frost.

So anyway, the upshot of all this is the punting situation will be dealt with and Heyer will be back in another week. The Redskins outyardaged the Rams 368-200 and had a 22-8 edge in first downs. The Cowboys lost this week anyway and it looks like Eli Manning is back to his old self. Washington should still finish with at least 10 wins.

Meanwhile, Ladell Betts is out for possibly two weeks, and Shaun Alexander apparently came in for a workout.

Mark's Week 7 NFL-Exclusive Jessup Lockdown

2008-10-12T09:33:00.003-04:00

Because #1's in college football are falling faster than the Dow Jones, I'm investing this week's locks in a more conservative NFL stock, where my father and his father made their money. By the way, is anyone what its going to be like when the financial crisis hits home and families realize ten grand for a PSL and $1,000 for tickets just isn't in the budget and stadiums stop selling out and games get blacked out? Anyway, on that positive note, I invite you to get rich quick and take the following picks:

Carolina (+1.5) at Tampa Bay:
Carolina is back. It took me a while to be willing to say that after their week one escape in San Diego. Delhomme is back in form, completing a solid 60% of his passes for a 90 passer rating. Carolina has won 8 of the last 10 matchups outright against Tampa Bay. And the underdog is 8-2 in those meetings. Carolina 23, Tampa Bay 17

Baltimore (+4) at Indy
This, too, is not a homer pick. I don't expect the outright win, but I certainly expect Baltimore to be competetive. I know Manning versus Flacco doesn't sound good, but I'm looking at McClain and McGahee vs. Colts D. Indy is giving up a whopping 188 yards of rushing per game! Baltimore is running for 153 per game. Indy is only rushing for 67 yards per game and Baltimore is only giving up 63 on the ground. If the Colts are going to win, they're going to have to throw the ball against the Ravens' weakened secondary, but look for the Ravens to throw him off his game with lots of pressure. If Matt Stover wasn't 0-3 in field goals over 40 yards, I'd pick Baltimore for the outright win. Colts 21, Ravens 20.

Chicago (-3) at Atlanta
Matt Ryan has been better than I expected, but look for him to be put on his back this week. He's been carried by Michael Turner all year and when Turner gets stuffed by the Chicago D, how will Ryan fare? Not well. Look for a runaway game against my pet Falcons. Chicago 34, Falcons 10.

Sorry, no upset special this week. I don't have much faith in Cincy, St. Louis or Detroit. You'll get extra picks next week. Good luck.

Lockdown: Week 7 or Return of the toss-up

2008-10-11T07:37:00.006-04:00

By Nate Sandstrom and Mark Goldman

Mark and I haven't gone head-to-head on a game since Labor Day, but in honor of this year's second Game of the Century, we are going to chime in on this year's Red River Shootout.

Oklahoma (-6.5) vs. Texas

Nate says:

So both teams have stud QB's, are stocked with highly-touted recruits and have blown teams that should be playing in bowl games at the end of the year but are still looking for that signature win that can keep them at #1.

However, go inside the numbers and you will see that Texas' secondary may be vulnerable. The 'Horns have not out-passed an opponent by more than 40 yards this season. Their last five games last year they were out-passed by 130 yards or more!

Skies will be party cloudy and temperatures around 80 degrees today, and that kind of passing weather should prove the difference in a 28-17 Sooners win.

Mark says:

Though the lock of the week seems to be the over in this game, give me Texas (+6.5). Both QBs are playing out of their minds this year, but I always prefer accuracy and there's nothing like a QB who is completing 79% of his passes. These two teams are pretty evenly matched up, both 5-0 with potent offenses and close season stats. So in a big game, give me the more accurate QB and the points. It doesn't hurt that Oklahoma is giving up almost 50 yards per game on the ground more than Texas, who already rushes for 198 yards per game. Nobody is staying on top long this year and watch Oklahoma be the next to fall in the outright loss today.

Now, onto updated standings.

Lockdown:
Nate: 11-8 (+220)
Mark: 6-4 (+160)

Upset Special:
Nate: 2-4 (+320)
Mark: 1-2 (+10)

Toss-Up:
Nate leads 1-0

This week's lockdown:

Nate says:

St. Louis at Washington (-13.5)

This is not a homer pick. Almost everyone I've talked to this week has been scared off laying 13.5, it's a Tom Brady-Patriots' kind of number. But I say it is justified.

The Rams have been outscored by 26 points a game. Their closest loss is a 17-point home loss to Buffalo. So why would they cover this number? Because the man who has led this hapless defense, Jim Haslett, has taken over as interim coach for an 0-4 team?

Last week was the let down spot for Washington, not this week. 'Skins will roll and keep the Rams winless.

Pick: Washington 38 St. Louis 10

N. Y. Giants (-7.5) at Cleveland

For all the credit that Eli Manning has gotten since New York's Super Bowl run last year, it has been the Giants' ability to plug in different running backs and roll up yardage that has truly impressed me.

Now their top-ranked 181-ypg rushing attack heads to Cleveland to take on the #22 rush defense on Monday Night. It's also a match-up of the league's #1 total offense against the #32 total offense. Yes, the Browns are awful. Last year was a combination of flukes and a last place schedule. Plus, Kellen Winslow is in the hospital with an undisclosed illness.

Pick: NY Giants 37 Cleveland 6

Tulsa (-24.5) at SMU

New head coach June Jones has not worked out so well for the 1-5 Mustangs. The heralded offensive guru's new offense has averaged just 323 yards per game. Here the worst part: The SMU "D" has been torched for 479 yards per game. Here's the worser part: Tulsa averages 596 yards per game. The Golden Hurricane, who have won their shootouts by average of 56-25, may get 700 yards tonight.

Pick: Tulsa 63 SMU 27

Arkansas at Auburn (-17.5)

That is not a typo. I'm taking Arkansas.

For those who follow this feature regularly, you'll know that I've picked against Arkansas three weeks in a row and the result for those who listened to me is money in the bank.

However, last week the Hogs played well and the Gators got the ol' back-door cover by running up the score late (remember this is the same team that kicked a field goal as time expired to beat Miami 26-3).

Meanwhile, Auburn is in turmoil after panicing and firing their offensive coordinator this week. Expect Arkansas to take Auburn late into the game before falling short.

Pick: Auburn 14 Arkansas 9

Upset Special: Louisiana Tech (+260) at Hawaii.

Nothing I love this week, but this a feature so I'll stick with it. I'm looking to Hawaii, who played their best game of the year in an overtime upset at Fresno State last week. Meanwhile, Louisiana Tech played their worst game of the year when they were blown out at Boise.

This is a series that has traditionally favored, the home team, perhaps not surprising given the distance between the two schools. Come to think of it, this pick makes no sense. Oh well.

Pick: Louisana Tech 37 Hawaii 35

Mark's picks coming perhaps after he finishes the half marathon today.

Nate's NFL Power Rankings — Oct. 8

2008-10-09T17:29:00.006-04:00

1. N.Y. Giants (4-0, 1). More running backs than 1990s Nebraska teams.

2. Washington (4-1, 3). Oh no, what will they do with a rookie coach? Idiots, Zorn rocks.

3. Dallas (4-1, 4). Don't worry about off the field stuff, but why are they only -5 at Arizona.

4. Tennessee (5-0, 2). Special thanks to officials for that personal foul on Suggs.

5. Carolina (4-1, 6). Rushing attack is taking shape; I know it was KC but its still a shutout.

6. Pittsburgh (4-1, 14). Winning despite injuries. Not sure how long it can last.

7. Chicago (3-2, 13). Hester attack is back on track.

8. Buffalo (4-1, 5). Good time for their bye week.

9. Tampa Bay (3-2, 8). Way better than Mark thinks.

10. San Diego (2-3, 7). Don't think they will finish 10-2 this season.

11. Denver (3-2, 10). I know they beat Tampa, but not by enough at home.

12. Philadelphia (2-3, 11). Different team without Westbrook.

13. Jacksonville (2-3, 15). Moved up because so many others moved down.

14. Baltimore (2-2, 16). Six points from being a Top 8 team.

15. Miami (2-2, 20). I called them most improved team at the beginning of the year.

16. New England (3-1, 18). Stock up slightly, San Diego presents yardstick game on Sunday.

17. N.Y. Jets (2-2, 19). Probably a yo-yo type year for Jets.

18. Arizona (3-2, 22). Warner probably a better fantasy starter than real starter.

19. New Orleans (2-3, 9). Should be able to outscore opponents when Colston, Shockey return.

20. Green Bay (2-3, 12). This is why you shouldn't have traded Favre.

21. Minnesota (2-3, 21). I still don't count on Childress being around next year.

22. Indianapolis (2-2, 17). Two years away from being a last place team.

23. San Francisco (2-3, 23). Who cares?

24. Atlanta (3-2, 25). May have already accrued half the season's wins.

25. Seattle (1-3, 24). It's a time zone thing. Right.

26. Oakland (1-3, 26). JaMarcus Russell is a great player. Get over it!

27. Kansas City (1-4, 27). Another QB change. Whose coaching this team, Steve Spurrier?

28. Houston (0-4, 28). My Sage campaign may be over.

29. Cleveland (1-3, 29). Do those pundits still consider the Browns offseason winners?

30. Cincinnati (0-5, 30). At least the games are getting closer.

31. Detroit (0-4, 31). Yearning for the naked coaches.

32. St. Louis (0-4, 32). This new coach will fix everything.

Heisman Watch — Oct. 7

2008-10-09T16:48:00.004-04:00

By Nate Sandstrom

I'm leaving my mock ballot for this week unchanged and have high hopes for 2008 Heisman Bowl I, Sam Bradford vs. Colt McCoy, otherwise known as Oklahoma vs. Texas. There will of course be several more Heisman Bowls in the Big 12 season but this one may be the most important.

The media exposure around this game is huge. The noon kickoff time will be broadcast in every U.S. TV market, and with all the guys vying for the Heisman Trophy it helps to get exposure early.

I'm not making any predictions on this until Friday and I have to DVR the game, but I will look forward to watching quarterbacks completing 80 percent of their passes. For whatever it means, Oklahoma won the EASports simulation 38-20.

Meanwhile, Chase Daniel still leads the ESPN poll. He also leads at Heismanpundit, but Bradford is #2 and McCoy #3. My ballot:

My ballot:

1. Sam Bradford, So., QB, Oklahoma. 205 passer rating (#2), 72%, 18 TD/3 INT for 1,665 yards.

2. Chase Daniel, Sr., QB, Missouri. 196.4 passer rating (#5), 76%, 15/1 for 1,665.

3. Colt McCoy, Jr., QB, Texas. 197.9 passer rating (#4), 79%, 16/3 for 1,280

4. Javon Ringer, Sr., RB, Michigan St. Javon Ringer 164.7 ypg (#2), 12 rush TDs (T-#1).

5. David Johnson, Sr., QB, Tulsa. 214.8 passer rating (#1). 69%, 23/5 for 1,682.

For more NCAA stats, click here.

Major Gloating: It's feeling awfully 1980s around here

2008-10-06T21:35:00.003-04:00

They say everything comes back in 20 year cycles. Maybe that includes Redskins football.

For the first time since I was in junior high, I feel like Washington can beat anybody. Sure, they've made the playoffs two of the last three years but I never felt either of those teams could do better than pulling a few upsets to land them in the NFC Championship Game. They didn't even get that far.

Portis is running the ball like he did when he was a rookie, and Campbell is showing poise I never expected he would develop when Washington took him out of Auburn. Santana Moss didn't have a catch yesterday, but Zorn has been getting him the ball in space and letting him use his speed.

And the defense is also playing good enough, despite injuries to Marcus Washington, Shawn Springs and Jason Taylor.

They've gone 4-1 despite having gone to the Giants, Cowboys and Eagles, as well as hosting NFC playoff contenders Arizona and New Orleans. DC is a-buzz. They are 13.5-point favorites this Sunday. When was the last time the 'Skins were two-TD favorites?

I've always been more of a "negative Nate" than a "positive Pete," but for now I'm going to sit back and enjoy the 'Skins crushing the Rams, Browns and Lions (combined 1-11) the next three weeks and moving to 7-1. Zorn will keep their focus, and I'll do all the looking ahead for them. And this year they shouldn't have to go to Seattle for the playoffs!

FCS Top 25 — Oct. 6, 2008

2008-10-06T18:34:00.009-04:00

By Nate Sandstrom

This weekend was quite filled with upset story lines of the last one, especially since the biggest impact upset happened Thursday when Pitt went to South Florida and killed the Bulls hopes of a national title game appearance.

I didn't get to watch a ton of football Saturday as I was in Madison for Ohio State-Wisconsin. A good game overall, although I think by the end of the season neither of these teams may be ranked. I have to admit that after Wisconsin CB Allen Langford picked off a pass on OSU's second drive I thought the Badgers had it. The 20-17 defeat was Coach Beilema's first home loss as a head coach (third year).

It was also the first time in like 40 years that the band wasn't there as well and it was weird. Half of going to college games is the ceremony, the pomp and circumstance. It's still not determined if they will be back for this week's game against Penn State, also in prime time but apparently moved from ABC to ESPN.

For-now starting QB is apparently on a short leash. Good, says this Badgers fan.

Before I headed out to tailgate I also caught parts of Indiana at Minnesota, Iowa at Michigan State, Kansas at Iowa State and Penn State at Purdue. Late night, I saw Fresno blow a home game to Hawaii. Quick thoughts:

• Minnesota is just one win from bowl-eligibility after winning a sloppy game against the Hoosiers. Coming off a 1-11 season it's good progress for second-year coach Tim Brewster; however, there will be no easy win for them the rest of the way as they go to Illinois, Purdue and Wisconsin and host Northwestern, Michigan and Iowa. Still, they should get one of those to get to 6-6.

• Going into the season I thought Indiana junior QB Kellen Lewis was an NFL prospect. Saturday, he was splitting time with sophomore Ben Chappell. He also had a key fumble. It may be a long year for the Hoosiers.

• Iowa State reversed their usual style of starting slow and jumped out to a 20-0 lead on Kansas at the half. They then played their usual first-half swiss cheese defense in the second half rather than the first as Kansas came back for a 35-33 win. This game, combined with S. Florida's loss, has Kansas dropping way down in my poll.

• All right. It's 4th and 1 on your opponents 21 with 2:16 left. You can tie the game with a field goal, completing a 13-point rally. Kirk Ferentz went for it. Was stuffed. And Iowa had lost three straight. By a combined nine points. Short sentences are annoying.

I was saying kick it and go to OT, but Ferentz apparently got a vote of confidence today, so I guess he will be out by the end of the year. Don't expect him to get a job handicapping, the Hawks will still be favored at Indiana.

• Penn State looked sloppy in their 20-6 win, but I have a feeling they will step it up in Madison this weekend.

• Fresno State's resume looks a little worse each week. The opening win at Rutgers and a narrow home loss to Wisconsin looked good in mid-September. It doesn't look so great now, especially after getting taken to 3OT by Toledo, scraping out a win at UCLA and losing at home to previously 1-3 Hawaii.

Now this week's FCS Top 25: (W-L, last week's rank)
1. Oklahoma (5-0, 1). Making their schedule look easier than it is.
2. Alabama (6-0, 2). Avoided dangerous trap door game, so props for that.
3. Missouri (5-0, 3). Broke 50 in four of five games now.
4. LSU (4-0, 4). When are these guys going to play?
5. Penn State (6-0, 5). Rest of conference may drag down terrific team.
6. Texas (5-0, 6). Colt McCoy is more accurate than Tom Brady.
7. Texas Tech (5-0, 7). Will look to score 200 over next 3 games before Longhorns.
8. Vanderbilt (5-0, 11). Can't debate the resume, although this story will end badly by Nov.
9. USC (3-1, 12). No game left on their schedule to vault them pass SEC/Big 12 Champs.
10. Georgia (4-1, 10). Right team, wrong schedule.
11. Florida (4-1, 14). Hate to move them up after they piled meaningless points on Arkansas late.
12. Oklahoma St. (5-0, 20). Don't write them off, even if they lose to Missouri.
13. Auburn (4-2, 15). Does Jason Campbell have eligibility left?
14. BYU (5-0, 16). Overrated nationally, but could win a BCS Bowl on the right night.
15. Utah (6-0, 17). Based on Org. St., should be ahead of USC. But Utah plays too many too close.
16. Tulsa (5-0, 18). This year's Hawaii with a better offense.
17. Boise St. (4-0, 19). Win over Oregon doesn't look as good as it did two weeks ago.
18. Ball State (6-0, 21). Make a joke. This team is legit.
19. Virginia Tech (5-1, 22). Being reminded that every game counts, even ECU.
20. California (4-1, 24). Stupid early-game loss at Maryland. Maybe they should cry too.
21. Pitt (4-1, NR). Now that they're ranked again, they'll probably lose again.
22. Michigan State (5-1, 25). Positioning themselves for New Year's Day Bowl.
23. South Florida (5-1, 8). Need a healthy Selvie.
24. Kansas (4-1, 9). Don't often drop teams who win by 15, but see above Iowa St. comments.
25. South Carolina (4-2, NR). Big win over Miss with big plays on defense.

FCS rankings on the sidebar.

Mark's Week 6 Jessup Lockdown

2008-10-04T13:14:00.003-04:00

In honor of O.J. Simpson, I'm not promising these games will be locked down today, but maybe 13 years from now, they'll prove right.

Oregon (+15.5) at USC

The Trogans' defense has held up solidly all season until last week. This week is probably an even bigger test for their defense, going against an Oregon team that is putting up 47 points a game and rushing for 300 yards per game. Last year Oregon pulled off the outright win, but that was at home. This year, Oregon will travel to SoCal and push the hungover Trojans into a close 4th quarter game. USC 35 Oregon 28.

Auburn (-4) at Vanderbilt

Vanderbilt's had a solid season and an impressive win at Rice, but it comes to a stop this week when Auburn comes to town. Vanderbilt will try to run a safe offense against this formidable derfense, but points will be few and far between. By the time they try to open it up in the second half, Auburn will be on its toes waiting for the big turnover and Rice's injured offense isn't going to be able to score when it needs to. Auburn runs away with this one 24 - 10.

New England (-3) at San Francisco

This isn't my most assured lock of the week, but I have a feeling Belichik was not only embarrassed by the outright loss to the Dolphins, he was embarrassed by the way in which he was outcoached by a first year head coach. Look for the Pats to come off of the bye week with several trick plays and a finally open Randy Moss. They'll pound the ball for the first half and then pour on the points in the second half with a flea-flicker or reverse to Moss. San Francisco is giving up 24 points a game and they're down a linebacker and a corner. New England 27, San Francisco 12

Upset Special

Northern Illinois (+500) at Tennessee

I know it's tough to go into the SEC and win on the road, but when Tennessee is limping and their QB is completing and appaling 50% of his passes for only 5 yards per attempt and has only 2 TDs to his 4 INTs, there's a good shot to upset them. Northern Illinois has a solid offense and their defense should be able to hold the Volunteers in check. Tennesee has only scored a total of 18 points in the past two games. NI has only allowed 3 points in thier past two games.
Northern Illinois 21, Tennesee 10

Nate's Lockdown: Week 6

2008-10-03T15:01:00.004-04:00

Going to have to be short and sweet because I have to leave for my flight to catch Badgers-Buckeyes in less than an hour. But after a weekend when I went 2-1 (missed Penn State by a point) and hit a 4-1 upset special, I wouldn't want to deprive our readers of more quality picks.

Florida (-24.5) at Arkansas

If you've read my blog frequently, you'd know I've had a beat against Arkansas theory that has paid all year. After Florida lost to Ole Miss, the line is down enough to find value in the Gators. UF will be eager to take out last week's loss on the poor Hogs, who will just have to suffer through a rebuilding year.

Pick: Florida 48 Arkansas 10

Northern Illinois at Tennessee (-16.5)

Northern Illinois obviously has much less talent than the Vols, but they've shown a lot of grit following a down year in DeKalb. They're a few plays from 4-0, and although they will eventually fall short of a great upset, they will hang around enough to make Tennessee Coach Phil Fulmer start to worry about his job.

Pick: Tennessee 27 Northern Illinois 21

Rice at Tulsa (over 80.5)

"Over 80.5!" you say? Well, these two high-flying offenses might hit for a total of 100 points. The teams played in 96- and 97-point affairs last week; they've scored a combined 91 and 79 the last two times they met.

Tulsa's average game has been 55-24, while Rice's average score is 41-34. I smell the century mark.

Pick: Tulsa 62 Rice 41

Pittsburgh at Jacksonville (-4)

Pittsburgh is coming off a short week and an overtime win. Jacksonville is also coming off an overtime win, but at least they didn't lose two players for the season. The Steelers are beat up, and will feel no better after this trip to Florida.

Pick: Jacksonville 27 Pittsburgh 13

Upset Special: Kentucky (+500) at Alabama

I know you think this insane, but have you watched college football the last few years? The Wildcats are under the radar with the graduation of Andre Woodson but they are undefeated. This is the perfect let down spot for the Tide, who showed they can look past a team by the way they fell at home to UL-Moroe last year.

Pick: Kentucky 27 Alabama 23

Now I'm watching this

2008-10-02T08:02:00.002-04:00

By Nate Sandstrom
So this morning I was compiling data for our What to Watch sidebar and I came across this Web site, called Are You Watching This?

It appears to be a dream site for lovers of sports on TV. You can create a free account and customize your page so the site will tell you what games are on in your area on the channels you get. But the best part is that it will send you e-mail or texts when the games on TV that you may have switched from get good.

I just signed up today and will give it a full review in two weeks after seeing how it goes.

Mark's Week 4 Power Rankings

2008-10-01T19:16:00.001-04:00

1. New York Football Giants - This is reluctant, but if I put my heart's true #1 pick (Buffalo), Nate will fire me. They're ranked 4th in total offense and 4th in total defense. For a defending champ, I have no choice but to put them in this slot.
2. Tennessee Titans - Who'd have thought a team would rally around a QB's supposed suicidal tendencies?!
3. Buffalo Bills - The legendary Tim Russert curse has been lifted?
4. Dallas Cowboys - Reports of their demise (and T.O.'s imminent implosion) are greatly exaggerated. The team played a bad game and had a crappy game plan. Apparently I didn't get the memo that they were supposed to go 16-0. They didn't run Barber enough and they tried to get too fancy with putting T.O. in the slot. They'll get back to their game if they know what's good for them.
5. D.C. - Will Jason Campbell be the next Eli Manning!
6. New England Patriots - I have to believe they're going to come off of the bye and completely destroy San Fran.
7. Philadelphia Eagles - I'm playing the odds here - putting all four NFC East teams in the top seven. One of them has got to be the true contender. I like the Eagles so long as Westbrook is healthy and Desean Jackson is in check.
8. Pittsburgh Steelers - I'm not even sure they're going to win the division any more. Plus, they're seriously injured right now. But I'll leave them up here for now because all you need in the NFL is a QB.
9. Carolina Panthers - Maybe the San Diego game wasn't a fluke after all
10. Chicago Bears - This division is wide open and I like defense
11. San Diego Chargers - I was going to put the Broncos ahead of them, but then I saw the Broncos are ranked 1st in total offense, 30th in total defense. In my opinion, defense - be it good or bad - is more consistent, meaning the broncos are likely to be more bad than good
12. Denver Broncos - They're ranked #1 in offense!
13. New Orleans Saints - Just another team that can score, but can't stop the scoring.
14. Baltimore Ravens - May have lost the game, but the injuries to Steelers may be a win. Damn you, Hines Ward!
15. Green Bay Packers - As long as Rodgers is healthy, they'll be fine. Vegas had clearly decreed that they would lose that game.
16. Indianapolis Colts - Holy crap! I made it to 16 without including the Colts?
17. Tampa Bay Bucs - I don't know what's going on here. Who's on this team? How are they 3-1? Ernest Graham, Brian Griese, Antonio Bryant? Ooooo, I'm shaking in my cleats.
18. Jacksonville Jaguars - My honorary week 5 second favorite team.
19. New York Jets - Still the 3rd best team in the division
20. Arizona Cardinals - So much for the two week stay on the east coast.
21. Minnesota Vikings - They're defense is overrated
22. Atlanta Falcons - 5 wins away from my prediction!
23. Miami Dolphins - I bet Mangini is so jealous he didn't do that to Belichik
24. Seattle Seahawks - They can't be as bad as they look so far.
25. San Francisco 49ers - Beware the Belichik wrath this week.
26. Oakland Raiders - I desperately wanted to put them last thanks to yesterday's debacle with Al Davis, but damn, there are just so many bad teams
27. Kansas City - At least they'll always have that home field
28. Houston Texans - First home game of the season coming up!
29. Cleveland Browns - Wow, Derek Anderson is completing 49% of his passes.
30. Detroit Lions - Finally fired Millen. So this season is a win no matter what happens from here.
31. Cincinnati Bengals - Trade Chad Johnson to Baltimore. (I love picturing Nate reading these)
32. Saint Louis - 30th in 31st in total defense. 32nd in points scored, 31st in points allowed. Wow.

Nate's NFL Power Ratings Oct. 1

2008-10-01T17:34:00.005-04:00

By Nate Sandstrom

Remember how much I praised the Big 12 the other day? I'm equally impressed by the NFC East, even though they finally lost a game outside the division on Sunday night. Thus, all but the Eagles are in my top four.

More interesting to readers might be how I stack three NFC South teams in the next five (that may make it hard for Atlanta to win seven games, Mark).

At the bottom of the poll, the Detroit Lions sit at #30 with a status of awfuler. But relax silver and blue fans there may be bright days ahead. And I'm not talking about Matt Millen being sacked, it's that the Curse of Bobby Layne expires in four days. Sorry Cubs fans, that's the only curse ending this year.

1. New York Giants (3-0), OK, OK, I guess I have to admit the Giants are good.
2. Tennessee (4-0). What if Kerry Collins played the Giants in the Super Bowl?
3. Washington (3-1). Thought the first game was still preseason.
4. Dallas (3-1). Man, the NFC East is good.
5. Buffalo (4-0). I guess Mark was right about them after all. Go Lee Evans!
6. Carolina (3-1). How did they lose to Minnesota?
7. San Diego (2-2). Really should be 3-1.
8. Tampa Bay (3-1). Not sure how they're winning, but they are.
9. New Orleans (2-2). NFC South looking as strong as ever.
10. Denver (3-1). Not far from 1-3, but still got wins.
11. Philadelphia (2-2). Pretty early, but really need win over Skins this weekend.
12. Green Bay (2-2). Falling fast.
13. Chicago (2-2). Much better with Hester in lineup.
14. Pittsburgh (3-1). Injuries mounting.
15. Jacksonville (2-2). Not sure what to make of Jags, but I'm guessing 9-7.
16. Baltimore (2-1). Hype of the week: Beltway Superbowl!
17. Indianapolis (1-2). Old. Satisfied. Out of the playoffs.
18. New England (2-1). Seriously, lost by 25 to Miami? At home?
19. New York Jets (2-2). Fav-tastic Sunday.
20. Miami (1-2). Another team I don't know what to make of.
21. Minnesota (1-3). Can Vikings get Mike Tice back?
22. Arizona (2-2). Still highest-rated team in NFC West.
23. San Francisco (2-2). What's an Alex Smith?
24. Seattle (1-2). Can we get Steve Largent back?
25. Atlanta (2-2). Have already peaked for the year.
26. Kansas City (1-3). Why wouldn't you always play Huard?
27. Oakland (1-3). I actually think they might get better.
28. Houston (0-3). I still like Sage over Schaub.
29. Cleveland (1-3). Still awful.
30. Detroit (0-3). Awfuler. Still, things have been worse.
31. Cincinnati (0-4). Awfulest.
32. St. Louis (0-4). Awfulestest. Would be better if they and Oakland were both still in LA.

Heisman Watch: Sept. 30

2008-09-30T22:41:00.006-04:00

By Nate Sandstrom
Could the Big 12 season decide the Heisman Trophy winner? I think the answer is yes, as I have 3 Big 12 QB's at the top of my ballot in Bradford, McCoy and Daniels. In fact, the Big 12 is home to four of the nation's top five passers. And six of the top 10. And nine of the Top 20.

Meanwhile, Javon Ringer, who is one of my favorite players not on Wisconsin except for the day he plays Wisconsin, keeps racking up yardage, now posting three straight games with 198+ rushing. That said, I'm a little worried he'll wear out without a second back to spell him this year.

My other top RB this year, Knowshon Moreno, drops after the Alabama debacle.

I looked to Conference USA for the number five spot, ultimately going with Tulsa QB David Johnson, the nation's top rated passer, over Rice WR Jarett Dillard who is a TD machine in the suddenly high-powered Rice offense.

Here's my poll:

1. Sam Bradford, So., QB, Oklahoma. 209.1 rating. 72%, 16/2 for 1,293.
2. Chase Daniel, Sr., QB, Missouri. 193.4 rating. 76%, 12/1 for 1412.
3. Colt McCoy, Jr., QB, Texas.209.7 passer rating. 80%, 14/1 for 1,018. 278 yards rush, 4 TD.
4. Javon Ringer, Sr., RB, Michigan State. #2 rusher with 179.4 ypg and leads the nation with 12 TDs.
5. David Johnson, Sr., QB, Tulsa. 227.2 passer rating is tops in the nation! 73 %, 19/4, 1,505 yards passing with 12.75/att.

My Internet is running really slow tonight, so I'll update who everyone else has on Wednesday.

***Wednesday update****
So ESPN's experts poll looks pretty similar to my mock ballot, with four of our top five the same. Heisman Pundit's poll looks about the same. Neither gives a sniff to David Johnson, who really doesn't have a chance because of Tulsa's weak schedule. I love his numbers though.

FCS Top 25 Rankings

2008-09-30T18:38:00.005-04:00

By Nate Sandstrom
I know these are a day late, but I haven't had such a hard time coming up with rankings in a long time. It kind of points to how worthless these early polls are. That said, I think there are now eight front-runners for the national title.

Among them, four are in the Big 12 and have to play each other. LSU and Alabama also have to play each other and will have to face sleeper Ole Miss. Meanwhile, Penn State has to play Wisconsin and Ohio State on the road, but I think they are better than both. South Florida probably has the easiest road right now but they have to play at West Virginia in December and that won't be easy. So maybe my preseason pick of no undefeated teams will hold.

Here's this week's poll.

1. Oklahoma (4-0). Should've been #1 even before USC lost.
2. Alabama (5-0). Will young team keep its focus through November?
3. Missouri (4-0). Glad to be off on a weekend when most of the top teams were getting beat.
4. LSU (4-0). Just once, one of Les Miles' crazy calls has to burn him.
5. Penn State (5-0). Got a win on a night when Illinois brought their A game.
6. Texas (4-0). As under the radar as a Texas team has been in a while.
7. Texas Tech (4-0). Maybe benefitting from high early ranking.
8. South Florida (5-0). Need to increase margin of victory in some of these games.
9. Kansas (3-1). Can get back in it by virtue of playing in Big 12.
10. Georgia (4-1). Insert blackout joke here.
11. Vanderbilt (4-0). Hey, until someone beats them, why not?
12. USC (2-1). I don't want to put them this high, but hard to get a read on them now.
13. Ole Miss (3-2). A few points away from 5-0 with wins over three ranked teams.
14. Florida (3-1). What happened to Tim Tebow?
15. Auburn (4-1). Keep winning, but keeping looking worse in my book.
16. BYU (4-0). One-point win over Washington will come back to hurt them.
17. Utah (5-0). Win over Michigan looks better after Wisconsin loss there.
18. Tulsa (4-0). Just watch this scoring machine one time, it's fun.
19. Boise State (3-0). Will keep cheering for Oregon.
20. Oklahoma St. (4-0). Hey Gundy, you're 20!
21. Ball State (5-0). Maybe Coach Hoke can get on Letterman.
22. Wake Forest (3-1). Tough let down loss to Navy.
23. Virginia Tech (4-1). If they keep winning, they can get back in the Top 10.
24. California (3-1). Ummm, sorry Maryland fans, but in the end Terps only won by 5 at home.
25. Michigan State (4-1). I can't only have one Big Ten team ranked, right?

Lockdown: Week 5

2008-09-26T23:40:00.006-04:00

By Nate Sandstrom

Doesn't it figure that the week where I break through on my upset special (Boise State with the win at +320) I pull an unspectacular 1-3. I will point out that North Carolina was cruising before Yates went out.

At least my pick against Arkansas theory finally paid off. I'm going to that well one more time.

Locks
Arkansas at Texas (-27)

It's rare that I would lay 27 points in a border war game; however, the Longhorns average margin of victory is 37.6. You may say, "Ya, but that was against Florida Atlantic, UTEP and Rice."

I respond: Arkansas beat Western Illinois by four and UL-Monroe by one. They trailed in the fourth quarter in both games. Get ready for a long season, Bobby Petrino.

Pick: Texas 55 Arkansas 13

Virginia at Duke (-7)

Duke hasn't beat Virginia since 1999. They've won two games the previous three years. But junior QB Thaddeus Lewis has guided the Blue Devils to a 2-1 start, posting a 5 TD-o INT ration. UVa's QB's have thrown no touchdowns and five picks.

Pick: Duke 31 Virginia 14

Illinois at Penn State (-15)

I'm not quite sure why Illinois is in the Top 25, other than that they were good last year. At the same time, I'm not sure why Penn State is not in the Top 10.

Both situations should be rectified this week. Penn State has putting up points like it's 1994. They'll be eager to avenge last year's loss to Illinois, a game they could have easily won.

Pick: Penn State 48 Illinois 21

Upset Special

Washington (+400) at Dallas

It will likely be the 'Skins last ever trip to Texas stadium. Why not end it with a major upset? After the opening night disaster against the Giants the burgundy and gold have looked much shaper. I know Dallas has been dominant, but in recent matches it also seems like this is a game that Washington gets more up for.

It's possible Washington will get blown out; Romo will definitely get at least one long pass past the safeties. But when you're getting 4-1 for a 2-1 team playing a divisional game, I call it a good investment.

Pick: Washington 31 Dallas 28

Updated standings for Mark and I:

Lockdown:
Nate: 6-6 (-60)
Mark 5-2 (+280)

Upset Special:
Nate: 1-3 (+20)
Mark: 1-1 (+110)

Toss-Up
Nate leads Mark 1-0