Week 1 Lockdown

Well, I'm 2-0 in my head this weekend, so let's hope that carry's over to actually documented predictions.

1) Houston (-4.5) vs. NY Jets: Call this the steal of the week. I just don't like starting that rookie QB on the road. To me, Sanchez is a lock to be a bust. If you saw last night's USC/OSU game, you know that USC can make even a freshman QB look good. Sanchez just doesn't have the stuff. Let alone the stuff to win his rookie game on the road. And the Texans are only giving up 4.5 at home!? Are you kidding me? Lock it up. Look for Steve Slaton to run right at (and over) Vernon Gholston. The Jets are already missing Shawn Ellis and Calvin Pace. Word is Gholston isn't looking any better under Rex Ryan's tutelage. The Texans will control the game and protect the ball all day and Sanchez will turn it over twice. Houston 24 New York 13

2) Philadelphia (-2.5) at Carolina: This is another line I don't get. I know they're on the road, but I like the Eagles to continue last year's momentum early this year. I think things will fall apart for them later in the year when McCrybaby throws a fit over Vick's playing time. But I am shocked at how little of a distraction Vick has been so far. I didn't expect him to be T.O. redux, but there is no drama going on already. I also expect Carolina to continue their momentum from last year. This regime is getting old. They need new blood in there. Delhomme/Smith/Fox just don't seem invigorated. Not to mention, Philly is 8-3 against the spread in their last 11 NFC games. And 12-5 in their last 17 road games. Gotta like those numbers. Philly 28 Carolina 15

3) Baltimore (-12) vs. Kansas City: I know it's risky to take this big a number and call it a lock, but I love Baltimore and no team has looked more focused and ready to go than the Ravens this preseason. With Kansas City's QB situation, I like the Ravens to feast early and then sit on the ball all day. I hear Cassell is getting the start. Bad move. If he's not mobile, he could be in for a long day. The Ravens have never beaten the Chiefs in Baltimore. That will change and change big today. Ravens 27 Chiefs 9

Upset Special:
I desperately wanted to take the Skins to stun the Giants for this, but if you look at the trends, there's no way I can justify that pick. So I'm taking the Dolphins to top the Falcons. At +110, I'll take an AFC Playoff team over an NFC playoff team. The Dolphins lack the true talent that they Falcons have, but I like the smart coaching staff of Sparano and the safe QB play of Pennington. Coaches and Quarterbacks. Coaches and Quarterbacks. We say it all the time. Miami 21, Atlana 17.

Lockdown: Week 2

By Nate Sandstrom

Wel1, starting 1-1 isn't great, but if you look around the Web at what the other prognasticators did in Week 1 I'll take essentially breaking even. I'll also take solace that I went 6-4 ATS in my college picks pool -- hopefully a sign I was drawing on the right sources and analyzing correctly in the preseason.

First, a moment to say, WTF Colorado? As I write this they are trailing Toledo 37-10. I can see losing to either in-state rival Colorado State or traditional tough-out at home Toledo, but to lose to BOTH? Coach Hawkins may be in trouble, after all this is Division 1 football.

On to the picks....

Vaderbilt at LSU (-14.5)

Vanderbilt had a story-book year last season, while LSU's year was more like a terrifying nightmare. The vaunted Tiger D was gashed for 30 ppg down the stretch and again struggled at times in the opener at Washington. The performance seems to have infuriated the boys of Baton Rouge though, and I expect good focus from their top-notch recruits in the home opener against the Commodores.

Vandy stuffed the box score last week, but don't be fooled. Western Carolina is among the worst teams in FCS.

How many times will LSU be favored at home over Vandy by this few points in your lifetime. You'll be able to count it on both hands.

Pick: LSU 35 Vanderbilt 10

Purdue at Oregon (-13)

People will be jumping off the Oregon band wagon quickly after the overrated Ducks lost to Boise. Meanwhile, Toledo's apparent win over Colorado may add more credence to the Boilers' three-TD win over the Rockets last weekend.

However, Purdue only outgained Toledo by 42 yards. And while Oregon was dominated at Boise in the first half, a few different bounces and they could've come away with the win.

And think about it this way: Purdue is starting a new QB with a new coach at one of the toughest road venues in the country. The host is going to be mad as hell after losing that game at Boise and the notoriety that followed the Blount punch. And despite the OT game these squads played in West Lafayette last year, the Ducks won the yardage count by almost 100, they just finished -1 in TO.

Pick: Oregon 41 Purdue 14

Denver at Cincinnati (-4.5)

Interestingly enough, when the lines opened for Week 1 so many months ago the Broncos opened 2.5-point favorites. In the meantime, new Denver Coach Josh McDaniels has pissed off everyone he's glanced at while the Bengals are a team on the mend after a few disastrous years. Begals QB Palmer has declared himself 100%, for whatever that's worth, but more importantly the battered Bengal O-Line is showing signs of life and I'll go ahead and call for Chris Henry to haul in a pair of TD's in the start of what could be a bounce-back year in Cincy.

Pick: Cincinnati 30 Denver 13

Upset Special/Lock #4: Buffalo Bills (+550) at New England (over 47.5)

New England seems to be the consensus favorite in the NFL this season, and I'm not hating, I like them a lot too. But I think that secondary is weak, Belichick may be developing a Mike Martz-like aversion to running and as hyped as Tom Brady is, they may be a bit overconfident.

And as skeptical as everyone is about T.O., I expect him to have a big year in Buffalo. Trent Edwards may not be the greatest, but between Owens, fellow deep threat Lee Evans and speedster Roscoe Parrish, the Bills will expose the New England corners.

Brady will come out firing as well, but if they wind up passing 50 times Dick Jauron will be ready for it, and the Bills will be able to outscore the Pats.

Pick: Buffalo 41 New England 34

Nate's 2009 NFL Picks: Pack to Have Last Laugh

By Nate Sandstrom

Well, people have been asking me for weeks who I like in the NFL this year and I've finally run through enough depth charts, schedules and other prognastications to come up with the following prediction: The Pack over the Chargers in the Super Bowl.

I'm hardly going out on a limb picking the Chargers to take the AFC (as I do nearly every season) but I'm sure I'll raise eyebrows by calling for a team coming off a 6-10 season to win the Super Bowl. Here's my reasoning:

-- The Packers' 6-10 mark was deceiving as they lost seven games by four points or less! Meanwhile, five of their six wins were by 10+ points. They also outyardaged their opponents by 17 ypg.
-- The Packers will face the #31-rated schedule in the NFL this year, including a soft start that will allow the defense to adjust to new DC Dom Capers' 3-4 scheme.
-- The defense is mostly healthy and has depth and added talent in a pair of first-round picks. Even if new NT Raji misses the opener with his ankle injury, I expect him to make a big impact this year.
-- Ryan Grant was in camp all year instead of worrying about a new contract and I expect him to improve production and help open up things even more for the ultra-talented Aaron Rogers.

So, there's my case for the green and gold, who I've pegged to best their former franchise QB Brett Favre and the Vikings in the NFC Championship in Minneapolis. Then, they should be able to contain Sproles and the Chargers enough to bring the Lombardi back to Green Bay.

Other predictions:
-- The Seattle Seahawks will pull the biggest turnaround in the league this year, improving from 4-12 to 10-6. As long as the offensive line doesn't suffer too many injuries the passing game should be vastly improved with full seasons from Nate Burleson, Deion Branch and new face TJ Houshmandzadeh. New linebacker Aaron Curry should also add good speed to the D creating havoc against both the run and pass.

-- The Denver Broncos will be a total disaster as Coach Josh McRabbit'sFoot learns he is not Bill Belichick. The entire state of Colorado will beg Coach Shanahan to come back as the squad drops from 8-8 to 2-14. Young Josh better at least beat the Chiefs once or use his insider knowledge to upset the Pats or this team may wind up this year's version of last year's Lions.
-- Speaking of the Lions, mark it down that Matt Stafford turns the ball over 15 times before he reaches the 5 TD plateau. Still, the Lions will pull the season's biggest upset when they win at Minnesota on Nov. 15.
-- Speaking of rookie QBs, the New York Jets are my runner-up to Denver for biggest drop in the standings. I have them dropping from 9-7 to 4-12. I don't see what everyone else does in this defense and I think the Ravens defense will do a lot better without Rex Ryan than Ryan will do without the Ravens. Sanchez will be better than Stafford, but will still struggle.
-- I've got the Vikings finishing with the best regular season record; I probably would've had them close to that even without Favre. The defensive line will wreak havoc, the receivers will improve from last year and AP is just awesome. Still, it's the Vikings and just like the Cubs, they always blow it.

That's it. Read below to see where I have your team, then chuckle and watch it all play out. Enjoy the season!

AFC W-L Con Div
1. San Diego 12-4 11-1 5-1
2. New England 12-4 8-4 4-2
3. Indianapolis 11-5 9-3 3-3
4. Pittsburgh 11-5 8-4 4-2
5. Baltimore 10-6 8-4 5-1
6. Houston 9-7 7-5 4-2
7. Tennessee 9-7 6-6 3-3
8. Cincinnati 8-8 7-5 3-3
9. Jacksonville 8-8 6-6 2-4
10. Buffalo 8-8 5-7 2-4
11. Miami 7-9 4-8 3-3
12. Oakland 5-11 4-8 3-3
13. N.Y. Jets 4-12 4-8 3-3
14. Kansas City 4-12 4-8 3-3
15. Cleveland 4-12 3-9 0-6
16. Denver 2-14 2-10 1-5

NFC W-L Con Div
1. Minnesota 13-3 10-2 4-2
2. N.Y. Giants 11-5 7-5 5-1
3. Seattle 10-6 7-5 4-2
4. New Orleans 9-7 8-4 4-2
5. Green Bay 11-5 10-2 4-2
6. Philadelphia 11-5 7-5 3-3
7. Chicago 10-6 8-4 3-3
8. Arizona 9-7 7-5 4-2
9. Carolina 8-8 6-6 2-4
10. Washington 8-8 5-7 1-5
11. Atlanta 7-9 5-7 3-3
12. Dallas 7-9 4-8 3-3
13. Tampa Bay 6-10 5-7 3-3
14. San Francisco 5-11 4-8 3-3
15. St. Louis 3-13 2-10 1-5
16. Detroit 3-13 2-10 1-5

Playoffs Predictions
Wild Card Round:
#6 Houston 37 #3 Indianapolis 35
#4 Pittsburgh 17 #5 Baltimore 9
#6 Philadelphia 31 #3 Seattle 12
#5 Green Bay 41 #4 New Orleans 31

Divisional Round:
#1 San Diego 28 #6 Houston 14
#2 New England 30 #4 Pittsburgh 17
#1 Minnesota 28 #6 Philadelphia 27
#5 Green Bay 34 #2 N.Y. Giants 17

Conference Championships
#1 San Diego 20 #2 New England 17
#5 Green Bay 27 #1 Minnesota 24

Super Bowl
Green Bay 31 San Diego 27

River Hill/Wilde Lake preview

Our good friend Andrew Conrad has posted a look-ahead to a game tomorrow that could decide the Howard County Championship. He's also conveniently written up a run down on the 14 previous meetings in one of the county's best rivalries.

If I didn't have to work tomorrow night, I would definitely be in the seats for that one. Both schools lost their biggest offensive contributors from the previous season, but MaxPreps lists River Hill as #2 in the state while Wilde Lake checks in at #12.

Meanwhile, in Baltimore County, there's another tilt between perennial powers as #22 Hereford hosts #11 Eastern Tech. Also, #4 Gilman's battle with D.C.-area #1 DeMatha may be moved to Saturday because of the sloppy weather.

--Nate

High School Highlights: First weekend

By Nate Sandstrom

I was stuck working at the store this past Friday so I missed most of the high school action, but I thought I would add to the list of places letting you know about new Arundel RB Joseph Blackwell.

Blackwell transferred from Archbishop Spalding and rushed for 174 yards in scored four TDs in his debut, keying a 34-27 win for the Sun's #3 Arundel over #6 Old Mill last Friday. Below is a YouTube higlight reel he assembled from his frosh/soph years.




Among the big ones to look forward to this weekend .....

-- D.C.-area powerhouse and top-ranked team in Maryalnd DeMatha comes to Baltimore to face-off against top-ranked Baltimore team Gilman.

-- A pair of Howard County teams that appeared in the state finals last year will collide on Friday when defending 2A Champ River Hill puts its 28-game win streak on the line when it travels to last year's 3A runner-up Wilde Lake.

My rankings, thoughts and other fallout from college football's first weekend

By Nate Sandstrom

It may be hard to believe, but college football's second week is less than 32 hours away from kicking off. Lots of good stuff to talk about this weekend, but I'm choosing to start with what was the most fun to watch: Miami's 38-34 win at Florida State.

First off, kudos to whoever decided to move this game back to Labor Day. This was the best rivalry in college football when I first fell in love with the game but it has definitely lost some significance in recent years. Getting the game back in prime time on it's own should help both schools.

As for the game itself, it looks like Jacory Harris may bring back the QB, to "QB U." He kept his cool after a bad bounce interception and despite being forced to play catch up on the road time and time again, impressing the Miami Herald's Greg Cote as much as me.

I'm coming away from the game saying both offenses are pretty good, but the 'Noles upcoming trip to BYU on Sept. 19 and Miami's tilt against Georiga Tech next Thursday may show that the 38-34 score is a sign both defenses are below their schools' standards.

Speaking of top QB effort's, how about Washington's Jake Locker's performance in a 31-23 loss to national title contender LSU. Locker threw for 321 and added another 50 on the ground in the Huskies' upset bid. It looks like new coach Steve Sarkisian will put a more competitive team on the field this year, even if a tough schedule prevents them from bowl eligibility.

Meanwhile, the LSU defense (the one that gave up 30 points per game in their last four in 2008) insist they are better than they played in today's Times-Picayune. Could be a bad sign for Vanderbilt.

If you don't love Greg Paulus, you not want to turn on the mute button any time Syracuse is on TV. Props to 'cuse for nearly pulling the upset against the Gophers this past weekend, but I thought the ESPN crew gave a little too much of the credit to the former Duke PG now Syracuse QB. Syracuse had a good run where they scored 17 unanswered points but much it was through short passing and runs. Paulus finished 19-31 for 167 and tossed a game-defining INT in OT in the loss.

The UTEP-Buffalo game featured yet another example of why they need to lighten up on the unsportsmanlike conduct penalties. Trailing 23-17 late in the fourth quarter, UTEP hit a long TD pass that appeared to tie the game. The Miners were then flagged for excessive celebration; however, it also turned out they had been called for a hold on the play. Both penalties were marked off and UTEP was marched back beyond having a legit shot of scoring at the end. Coach Price was not happy.

As bad as I look for taking Oklahoma to win the national title after their loss Saturday, Cal made me look good for calling them national runner-up. The Bears absolutely shredded the Terps as bad as the score looked. At least I would say scoring 52 points wouldn't indicate being "perplexed."

Wisconsin's big problem last year was QB play, and Badger fans like me hope that the work of Scott Tolzien and Curt Phillips in a 28-20 win against NIU on Saturday indicate there will be fewer problems this year. Tolzien threw for 257 and Phillips carried the ball 4 times for 34 yards. The ground attack was not as good however, as Brown and Clay combined for just 94 yards on 29 carries. Overall, the Badgers jumped out to a 28-6 lead before Northern Illinois got some late scores to make it close.

In case you didn't notice, Illinois apparently has no defense and Missouri doesn't miss Daniel, Maclin, et al.

Not going to get too much into the Heisman Race after one week other than to note that Bradford is probably out due to his injury. We'll see if BYU QB Max Hall can enter the race with a big day against Florida State in two weeks.

Now, for my rankings:

FBS:
1. Florida (1-0). Favorites do just fine in the equivalent of preseason game.
2. California (1-0). Scored 52 against Terps, what will they do to E. Wash.?
3. Texas (1-0). Scored 40+ in 12 of last 15 now. 30+ in 19 of last 21.
4. USC (1-0). About to send 105,000 OSU fans home crying.
5. Alabama (1-0). Made several mental mistakes and still won by 10.
6. Oklahoma State (1-0). Showed persistence in putting away UGa.
7. BYU (1-0). Bradford or not, a hell of a win.
8. Boise State (1-0). Meet Oregon's biggest fans rest of year.
9. Mississippi (1-0). Piled it on Memphis late.
10. Oklahoma (0-1). Definitely hoping Bradford back for Miami game (10/3).
11. Penn State (1-0). Should've beat Akron by more.
12. Notre Dame (1-0). How 'bout that Irish defense?
13. LSU (1-0). Jefferson had very impressive 4th quarter drive.
14. TCU (0-0). If Will & Mary held UVa. to 12, what will TCU do?
15. Georgia Tech (1-0). Face brutal ACC stretch early.
16. Ohio State (1-0). Being AP #8 reflects lazy voting.
17. Miami (1-0). Can Jacory be the next Kelly/Kosar/Vinny/Walsh/Torretta?
18. Georgia (0-1). Under radar is where UnderDawgs like to be
19. Virginia Tech (0-1). May lose 3 of first 7, but still part of ACC hunt.
20. Florida State (0-1). Will still win division.
21. Cincinnati (1-0). Coach Kelly is great.
22. Arkansas (1-0). How quick till media forgives/forgets on Petrino?
23. Tennessee (1-0). Kiffin could ruin this yet.
24. Texas Tech (1-0). Just one more week 'til game with Horns.
25. Baylor (1-0). #25 in the nation, #5 in the Big 12 South.

FCS:
1. Montana (1-0). Upset alert at UC-Davis Saturday.
2. Villanova (1-0). Improbable upset over FBS Temple earns Mayor's Cup.
3. Richmond (1-0). Got a not quite as good FBS team in Duke.
4. Southern Illinois (0-1). Three TO's kill upset bid at Marshall.
5. Northern Iowa (0-1). Oh so close to beating Iowa, moving to #1.
6. William & Mary (1-0). Need to avoid let down this weekend.
7. Appalachian State (0-1). Host McNeese Sat. in FCS GOY.
8. Elon (1-0). Could be their year in Southern.
9. James Madison (0-0). How will they replace 11 graduating starters?
10. Hofstra (1-0). Colonial dark horse.
11. McNeese State (1-0). Less than impressive in ASU tune-up.
12. Jacksonville State (0-1). After GT, Fla. St., things will get easier.
13. Eastern Illinois (1-0). Made statement against Illinois St.
14. Holy Cross (1-0). Don't want to look past Sacred Heart.
15. South Carolina State (1-0). Key Int earns MEAC bragging rights.
16. Massachusetts (0-1). Gave good fight against Wildcats.
17. Central Arkansas (0-1). I expect big things from this squad.
18. North Dakota State (0-1). Played Iowa St. close til 4Q.
19. Wofford (0-1). Won't face many any other D as good as USF was.
20. Harvard (0-0). Biding time 'til Holy Cross game next weekend.
21. Grambling State (0-1). Outyardaged S.C. State by 106 in loss.
22. San Diego (1-0). Toreros need big wins for at-large playoff bid.
23. New Hampshire (1-0). Ball State will test top-notch DL.
24. Weber State (0-1). Five INT's against Wyoming cost them win.
25. Eastern Washington (1-0). From W. Oregon to Cal? Goo.

Lockdown: Return of the Lockdown

By Nate Sandstrom

We're back for more cash, and I'm kicking myself for not kicking off the year on Thursday. I recall thinking to myself, "North Texas is getting 16 1/2 points! What's the money line? Got to be worth a bet." Then I got stuck at work all day, and made no move to call what would've been one of the picks of the year in taking a team coming off a 2-10 year over a team coming off an 11-2 year. Oh well, I have it down in my magazine.

Any ways, I'm not doing an upset special this weeks since I had one I didn't call. Here's the only two I'm rolling out for tomorrow:

Illinois (-6.5) vs. Missouri, in St. Louis

If you glanced at my college football preview, you see that I have Missouri falling all the way down after a pair of exciting seasons, while I have Illinois coming back nearly as strong as their Rose Bowl season two years ago.

Usually in rivalry games I like to take points anytime it's 4 or more, but I hear the Illini look great and graduations have hit Missouri very hard. Illinois easily could have won the past two games in this series as well, so I'm calling this the break through.

Prediction: Illinois 41 Missouri 20

Alabama (-6.5) vs. Virginia Tech, in Atlanta

Speaking of 6.5-point favorites on a neutral site, I'm also picking Alabama. Virginia Tech is young and talented, but after the loss of Darren Evans I think it will take a few weeks for them to catch up.

Prediction: Alabama 20 Virginia Tech 6

College Football Preview/Picks ... in brief

By Nate Sandstrom

Well, college football got underway last night and goes off full bore on Saturday. Below, I’ve tossed one man’s projections for this year’s results by going through game-by-game on the schedule.

Due to having two crazy weeks, most of this is in summary form. You’ll find projections for each bowl game and regular season standings. In the standings, teams in bold are projected to be bowl teams, and teams with a (z) after their name are projected to win their conference championship games. Championship games are included in the conference record, but not standings (i.e. Colorado is listed as 5-4 ‘cause I have them beating Nebraska to earn the North Division bid but then losing to Oklahoma in the Big 12 Championship).

In the FCS section, an (x) denotes a team earning an automatic bid into the playoffs and a (y) indicates a team earning an at-large bid.

I think I’m off to an OK start as I nailed 16.5-point underdog North Texas winning at Ball State last night as well as Boise State beating an overrated Oregon team that has four new starters on the OL. However, I have to humbly admit I had no idea that the South Carolina defense would be able to so thoroughly dominate the Wolfpack.

Some other humble projections:

n Oklahoma will finally shake off their sudden reputation for choking and defeat Cal in Pasadena to win the National Championship. I’m also picking Penn State to get revenge against USC in the Rose Bowl, Florida to best Florida State for a second straight game in the Orange bowl, Boise State to edge BYU in a non-BCS team Fiesta Bowl and an overconfident Ole Miss to narrowly escape a Rutgers upset bid in the Sugar Bowl.

n My picks for top surprise teams are Colorado to win the Big 12 North, Arkansas to go from a losing season to the Chick-Fil-A Bowl, Illinois to bounce back from a losing year to play New Year’s Day on the strength of a second-straight win in Columbus and San Diego State to go from 2-10 to a bowl game.

n Top flops include Oregon settling for the Poinsettia Bowl and Michigan not really turning it around that much to finish 6-6 and land in the Motor City Bowl. I also have Texas losing to both Oklahoma and Oklahoma State; I wouldn’t call it a flop but those in Austin may. Staying in the Big 12, I have both Kansas and Missouri failing to qualify for bowl games.

n Speaking of Missouri, they are among two teams I’m picking to lose games against teams they defeated by more than 50 points a year ago. After defeating Nevada 69-17 last year, I have a Chase Daniel and Jeremy Maclin-less Mizzou squad falling to the Wolfpack. In FCS ball, I’ve got Hofstra turning the tables on James Madison, a team they lost to 56-0 last year, on their way to a playoff bid.

OK, look at them now, laugh at me later.

Bowl Picks:

Championship: Oklahoma vs. California
Rose: Penn State vs. USC
Orange: Florida State vs. Florida
Fiesta: Boise State vs. BYU
Sugar: Mississippi vs. Rutgers
Capital One: Illinois vs. Alabama
Gator: Notre Dame vs. Georgia Tech
Cotton: Oklahoma State vs. Georgia
Outback: Ohio State vs. LSU
Insight: Iowa vs. Colorado
Chick-fil-A: Virginia Tech vs. Arkansas
Liberty: Southern Miss vs. Tennessee
Sun: Texas Tech vs. Arizona
Holiday: Texas vs. Stanford
Alamo: Wisconsin vs. Nebraska
Music City: North Carolina vs. Vanderbilt
Meineke: West Virginia vs. Clemson
Champs Sports: Michigan State vs. Miami
Poinsettia: Utah vs. Oregon
PapaJohns.com: Pittsburgh vs. Auburn
Emerald: N.C. State vs. Oregon State
Independence: Houston vs. Kansas State
GMAC: Western Michigan vs. Tulsa
Hawaii: Nevada vs. Minnesota
Las Vegas: TCU vs. UCLA
Humanitarian: Fresno State vs. UNLV
Armed Forces: Texas El-Paso vs. San Diego State
Motor City: Central Michigan vs. Michigan
Texas: Navy vs. Baylor
New Orleans: Troy vs. Memphis
New Mexico: Akron vs. Air Force
St. Petersburg: East Carolina vs. South Florida
International: Ohio vs. Cincinnati
Eagle Bank: Marshall vs. Wake Forest

Predicted Regular Season Standings

ACC Atlantic Conf Overall
1. Florida State-z 6-3 8-5
2. N.C. State 5-3 8-4
3. Clemson 5-3 7-5
4. Boston College 3-5 5-7
5. Wake Forest 3-5 6-6
6. Maryland 2-6 4-8

ACC Coastal Conf Overall
1. Georgia Tech 7-2 10-3
2. Virginia Tech 6-2 9-3
3. Miami 5-3 7-5
4. North Carolina 3-5 7-5
5. Virginia 2-6 4-8
6. Duke 2-6 3-9

Big East Conf Overall
1. Rutgers 6-1 11-1
2. Pittsburgh 5-2 9-3
3. West Virginia 5-2 9-3
4. South Florida 4-3 8-4
5. Cincinnati 4-3 6-6
6. Connecticut 4-3 5-7
7. Louisville 1-6 4-8
8. Syracuse 0-8 1-11

Big Ten Conf Overal
1. Penn State 7-1 11-1
2. Illinois 6-2 10-2
3. Ohio State 6-2 9-3
4. Wisconsin 5-3 9-3
5. Michigan St. 5-3 8-4
6. Iowa 4-4 8-4
7. Minnesota 4-4 7-5
8. Michigan 3-5 6-6
9. Northwestern 2-6 6-6
10. Purdue 2-6 5-8
11. Indiana 0-8 2-10

Big 12 North Conf Overall
1. Colorado 5-4 8-5
2. Nebraska 5-3 8-4
3. Kansas St. 4-4 8-4
4. Kansas 2-6 5-7
5. Missouri 1-7 3-9
6. Iowa State 1-7 4-8

Big 12 South Conf Overall
1. Oklahoma-z 8-0 13-0
2. Oklahoma St. 7-1 11-1
3. Texas 6-2 10-2
4. Texas Tech 4-4 7-5
5. Baylor 4-4 8-4
6. Texas A&M 1-7 4-8

C-USA East Conf Overall
1. So. Mississippi-z 8-1 12-1
2. Memphis 5-3 6-6
3. Marshall 4-4 6-6
4. East Carolina 4-4 6-6
5. UA-Birmingham 3-5 4-8
6. Central Florida 3-5 5-7

C-USA West Conf Overall
1. Texas-El Paso 7-2 9-4
2. Houston 6-2 9-3
3. Tulsa 4-4 6-6
4. SMU 3-5 6-6
5. Rice 3-5 3-9
6. Tulane 1-7 2-10

Independents Overall
1. Notre Dame 10-2
2. Navy 8-5
3. Army 5-7

MAC East Conf Overall
1. Kent State 5-4 6-7
2. Buffalo 5-3 5-7
3. Ohio U. 5-3 8-4
4. Akron 4-4 7-5
5. Temple 3-5 5-7
6. Bowling Green 2-6 2-10
7. Miami 1-7 1-11

MAC West
1. C. Michigan-z 9-0 11-2
2 W. Michigan 7-1 8-4
3. Toledo 4-4 5-7
4. No. Illinois 4-4 6-6
5. Ball State 3-5 5-7
6. E. Michigan 1-7 1-11

Mountain West Conf Overall
1. BYU 8-0 11-1
2. TCU 7-1 11-1
3. Utah 6-2 9-3
4. Air Force 4-4 6-6
5. San Diego St. 3-5 6-6
6. UNLV 3-5 6-6
7. Colorado St. 3-5 5-7
8. Wyoming 2-6 2-10
9. New Mexico 0-8 1-11

Pac-10 Conf Overall
1. California 9-0 12-0
2. USC 8-1 11-1
3. Stanford 5-4 7-5
4. Arizona 5-4 7-5
5. Oregon 5-4 7-5
6. Oregon State 4-5 6-6
7. UCLA 4-5 6-6
8. Arizona State 3-6 5-7
9. Washington 2-7 3-9
10. Washington St. 0-9 0-12

SEC East Conf Overall
1. Georgia 7-2 10-3
2. Florida 7-1 11-1
3. Tennessee 4-4 7-5
4. Vanderbilt 3-5 6-6
5. South Carolina 2-6 4-8
6. Kentuky 1-7 4-8

SEC West Conf Overall
1. Ole Miss-z 8-1 12-1
2. Alabama 7-1 11-1
3. LSU 4-4 8-4
4. Arkansas 3-5 7-5
5. Auburn 3-5 6-6
6. Miss. State 0-8 1-11

Sun Belt Conf Overall
1. Troy 8-0 10-2
2. UL-Monroe 5-3 6-6
3. Arkansas St. 5-3 6-6
4. Florida Atlantic 5-3 5-7
5. Middle Tennessee 5-3 5-7
6. Florida Int’l 4-4 4-8
7. North Texas 2-6 3-9
8. W. Kentucky 1-7 1-11
9. Louisiana-Laff. 1-7 2-10

WAC Conf Overall
1. Boise State 8-0 13-0
2. Nevada 7-1 10-2
3. Fresno State 6-2 8-4
4. La. Tech 4-4 5-7
5 San Jose St. 4-4 5-7
6. Hawaii 3-5 5-8
7. Utah State 3-5 4-8
8. Idaho 1-7 1-11
9. New Mexico St. 0-8 1-12

Big Sky Conf Overall
1. Montana-x 8-0 10-1
2. E. Washington-y 6-2 8-3
3. Weber State 6-2 8-3
4. Montana St. 5-3 7-4
5. No. Arizona 4-4 5-6
6. Portland St. 3-5 4-7
7. No. Colorado 2-6 2-9
8. Sacramento St. 1-7 2-9
9. Idaho St. 1-7 2-9

Big South Conf Overall
1. Gardner-Webb 5-1 9-2
2. Stony Brook 5-1 7-4
3. Liberty 4-2 6-5
4. Coastal Carolina 4-2 7-4
5. VMI 2-4 4-7
6. Presbyterian 1-5 1-10
7. Charleston So. 0-6 2-9

Colonial North Conf Overall
1. Hofstra-y 7-1 9-2
2. New Hampshire-y 6-2 8-3
3. Maine 4-4 5-6
4. Massachusetts 3-5 5-6
5. Rhode Island 2-6 4-7
6. Northeastern 1-7 1-10

Colonial South Conf Overall
1. Richmond-x 7-1 9-2
2. Villanova-y 6-2 8-3
3. William & Mary 5-3 7-4
4. James Madison 4-4 6-5
5. Delaware 3-5 5-6
6. Towson 0-8 0-11

Great West Conf Overall
1. UC-Davis-y 4-0 8-3
2. Cal Poly 3-1 4-6
3. South Dakota 1-3 5-5
4. North Dakota 1-3 4-7
5. Southern Utah 1-3 3-8

Independents Overall
1. Savannah St. 8-3
2. Bryant 5-6
3. N.C. Central 5-6
4. Old Dominion 3-8

Ivy Conf Overall
1. Pennsylvania 6-1 7-3
2. Harvard 6-1 8-2
3. Brown 4-3 4-6
4. Princeton 4-3 4-6
5. Columbia 3-4 4-6
6. Cornell 2-5 3-7
7. Yale 2-5 4-6
8. Dartmouth 1-6 1-9

MEAC Conf Overall
1. S. Carolina St.-x 8-0 9-2
2. Florida A&M 6-2 8-3
3. Bethune-Cook. 5-3 8-3
4. Morgan St. 5-3 7- 4
5. Norfolk St. 4-4 6-5
6. Hampton 4-4 7-4
7. Howard 2-6 3-8
8. Delaware St. 2-6 3-8
9. N.C. A & T 1-7 2-9
10. Winston-Salem x-x 2-9

Missouri Valley Conf Overall
1. Southern Illinois-x 7-1 9-2
2. North Dakota St.-y 6-2 8-3
3. Youngstown St. 6-2 8-3
4. Northern Iowa 6-2 8-3
5. Western Illinois 3-5 5-6
6. South Dakota St. 3-5 5-6
7. Illinois State 2-6 4-7
8. Missouri St. 2-6 2-9
9. Indiana St. 0-8 0-11

Northeast Conf Overall
1. Albany 6-1 8-3
2. Robert Morris 6-1 8-3
3. Sacred Heart 4-3 6-4
4. Monmouth 4-3 6-5
5. Duquense 3-4 4-7
6. C. Conn. State 3-4 6-5
7. Wagner 1-6 3-8
8. St. Francis 0-7 1-10

Ohio Valley Conf Overall
1. Jacksonville St.-x 7-1 8-3
2. UT-Martin 6-2 8-3
3. E. Kentucky 5-3 6-5
4. Murray St. 4-4 6-5
5. Eastern Illinois 4-4 6-5
6. Tennessee Tech 4-4 5-6
7. Austin Peay 3-5 3-7
8. Tennessee St. 2-6 2-9
9. SE Missouri St. 0-8 1-10

Patriot Conf Overall
1. Holy Cross-x 5-1 10-1
2. Lafayette 5-1 9-2
3. Colgate 4-2 8-3
4. Bucknell 2-4 6-5
5. Fordham 2-4 4-7
6. Lehigh 2-4 3-8
7. Georgetown 1-5 2-9

Pioneer Conf Overall
1. San Diego 7-1 10-1
2. Jacksonville 6-2 8-3
3. Dayton 6-2 7-3
4. Morehead St. 5-3 6-5
5. Butler 5-3 8-3
6. Marist 5-3 6-5
7. Drake 3-5 5-6
8. Valparaiso 1-7 4-7
9. Davidson 1-7 2-8
10. Campbell 0-8 1-10

Southern Conf Overall
1. Appalachian St.-x 7-1 9-2
2. Wofford 6-2 7-4
3. Elon-y 6-2 8-3
4. Georgia So. 5-3 6-5
5. Furman 5-3 6-5
6. Citadel 4-4 6-5
7. Samford 2-6 4-7
8. Chattanooga 1-7 3-8
9. W. Carolina 0-8 0-11

Southland Conf Overall
1. C. Arkansas-x 6-1 10-2
2. McNeese St.-y 6-1 8-3
3. N’western St. 4-3 5-6
4. Texas St. 3-4 5-6
5. S.F. Austin 3-4 5-6
6. Sam Houston St. 3-4 4-7
7. SE Louisiana 2-5 4-7
8. Nicholls St. 1-6 2-9

SWAC East Conf Overall
1. Jackson St. 7-1 8-2
2. Alabama A&M 5-3 6-5
3. Alabama St. 2-5 5-6
4. Alcorn St. 1-7 1-9
5. Miss Valley St. 1-7 3-8

SWAC West
1. Prairie View 7-1 8-2
2. Grambling St. 7-1 9-2
3. Southern 4-3 7-4
4. Ark.-Pine Bluff 3-5 6-5
5. Texas Southern 2-5 2-8

Opening Night!

It's one of my favorite nights of the year — opening Thursday night for college football season. I stayed up until 2 am this morning finishing up my regular season picks, will get to bowl match-ups and I-AA playoffs today and then dig in for the ESPN double header tonight.

Ol' ESPN opens this year's feast with South Carolina visiting N.C. State at 7 p.m. followed by a clash between highly touted teams as Oregon travels to Boise State at 10:30 p.m.

You've also got Indiana hosting Eastern Kentucky on Big Ten Network, and once I have all that digested, I'll post my final picks for National Champs, surprises, busts, etc.

But first it's off to work at the golf course this morning, so I got to run. Happy football season!

--Nate

Non-Favre reaction and this fall...

Hi everyone,

We are about to ramp up for the season and among news we are planning to add a new fantasy sports column by two former colleagues that I think will be both funny and informative.

I guess as an on-again/off-again Vikings fan I should have some kind of Favre reaction but it's not more than meh. I bet Favre, Jackson and Rosenfels all see action in at least six games so I'm not getting too flustered by who is QB. I'm worried about who is blocking for them. (And at the moment I'm far more worried by the latest Phil Humber botch).

I've been pouring over college previews from Sporting News, Athlon and Phil Steele over the last two months and am preparing to unleash my annual preview/picks that are slated to be released Sept. 1 and Sept. 2 (Last year's claim to fame: Called for Michigan to finish 3-9; Last year's blunder: Auburn to win SEC West).

NFL Preview will be out the following week after I can spend my vacation week poring over NFL stats and depth charts.

We'll also freshen up in general over the next two weeks, so get ready to start keeping up with SoBo, including our winning picks on Lockdown.

Looking forward to Sept. 3! (Get your season started with South Carolina-N.C. State)
--Nate

NFL: Challenge us and you shalt continue peeing in cups

By Nate Sandstrom

This story in the Star-Tribune has the latest in Pro-Bowl Vikings DT Pat and Kevin Williams's court challenge to the NFL's decision to suspend them for 4 games for a banned substance.

At isssue is that the Williamseses took a weight loss supplement that could mask the use of steroids, not that the NFL is officially accusing them of using steroids. However, due to its masking ability, it is banned.

Now that you have the main issue down, the interesting twist this story takes today is that the Williamseseses' attorney says the NFL is singling the Williamseseses out for me tests since they challenged the suspension. From the article:

Ginsberg alleged that the increased testing amounts to retaliation against the defensive tackles and violates both the NFL's policy against performance-enhancing drugs and state law. He said he's still trying to get the testing records to be sure, but he said it appears they have each been tested more than six times since the Pro Bowl and that the frequency has increased.

"They seem to be testing them about three times a month if not more, which is far in excess of what the testing policies allow. ... It's not being done randomly. Kevin and Pat are being singled out," Ginsberg said.

NFL spokesman Greg Aiello denied that the league is retaliating against the Williamses, but declined to comment on how often they've been tested.

So is this purely punitive? Is the NFL trying to bust them with steroids to get them to drop their challenge the current 4-game suspension that would begin in Week 1? Stay tuned.

Less than one hour to the official release of the Phil Steele College Football Preview

By Nate Sandstrom

Just in time for the hours I will be spending on planes next week, my favorite stat-packed college football preview officially hits the racks tomorrow.

Apparently though, you can already find Phil Steele's National College Football several places, as my cousin's boyfriend already sent me a message today about Steele pegging our UW Badgers sixth in the Big Ten (although they are his #38 team talent-wise nationally).

I'll be picking up a copy from Rite-Aid after work tomorrow, but in case you can't wait he has added much more new content to his Web site this year, including a daily blog and Facebook and MySpace pages. He is also releasing a PDF file each day for each Top 40 team. Tonight he has LSU, who is picking to find improved QB play and improve on last year's disastrous 8-5 season.

Steele's even more detailed regional magazines, which include FCS teams, are slated to go to press next week.

Yay, college football!

I am so smart: s-m-r-t

Al Davis had Lane Kiffin dead on. Read the latest debacle here. Meyer will have the last laugh.

If I don't get money, kids with Downs Syndrome don't either

Read more Brian Waters' about douche-baggery here.

Redskins '09 roster: About the same as '08?

By Nate Sandstrom

With RT Jon Jansen being cut on Friday (more on this below) and the calendar flipping to June 1st, the Washington Times' Ryan O'Halloran put out a mock 53-man roster for the upcoming season. Check it out here.

In case you don't want to bother clicking, it can be summed up as pretty much the same. Yes, they've added Haynesworth, brought back Dockery and drafted Orakpo (who is projected at LB here but some expect to play DE), but it otherwise appears that there will be little difference from last year's squad on most downs.

For that reason, unless the OL has some kind of major turnaround, this seems like an average team that will continue to be between 6-10 and 10-6 depending on how injuries (their own and other teams') unfold along the schedule and how lucky bounces affect the turnover margin.

As for Jansen, he seemed to be a good guy who had a decent career that could've been better were it not for some major injuries. He signed with the Lions today, perhaps not suprising since he is a Michigan native and alum.

I'm not sure if Lions GM Martin Mayhew still has Redskins' connections that affected this deal; the article doesn't mention it. I also recall Jansen getting in a fight with the Lions during a 1999 playoff game, but I couldn't find anything to back up that memory.

Minnesota Vikings: Free agent weekend #1

"Say Goodbye to these, Vikings!"; or, "How I Stopped Worrying About Not Signing Housh and Focused on Players that Matter."



By Nate Sandstrom

Who's in: Sage Rosenfels
Who's out: Darren Sharper, Vinny Ciurciu, Matt Birk, Maurice Hicks
Who's back: Jim Kleinsasser
Up in the air: Jay Cutler

Pretty much all talk about the Vikings this season begins and ends with the quarterback position. That was briefly interrupted when the Vikings chased — but failed to sign — an old, whiny receiver in T.J. Houshmandzadeh. Relax angry Viking fans, Seattle overpaid while Sidney Rice is entering his third year: in which many NFL receivers have had breakout season.

Houshmandzadeh said he was impressed by the way the Seahawks treated his family. I guess Vikings fans won't be privileged enough to have the Housh kids running up and down the Metrodome aisles. Fortunately, they will also miss out on paying $40 mil to a receiver who had three fewer TD catches than Bernard Berrian last year. Plus, Sidney Rice is in his third year, the one where receivers with promise typically break out in the NFL.

So let's get back to who will be throwing him the ball. Denver insists they are not trading Cutler, so I'm going to take them at their word and continue to promise that Josh McDaniels will be a disaster there.

That leaves them with newly acquired Sage Rosenfels, who was just signed to a two-year $9M deal. Rosenfels is slated to compete with Tavaris Jackson, who was 2-4 as a starter last year, including playoffs, and never-played-a-down USC alum John David Booty.

I think Sage will win the job. He can throw the deep ball and will be dangerous with Bernard Berrian. Turnovers have always been a problem for him, but he can't give the ball away more than Frerotte — and he was 8-3 as a starter.

Even if Sage falters, I saw signs of promise in Tavaris late last year. I was almost apoplectic when the Vikings took him in the second round three years ago, but I thought he improved his accuracy and gained more confidence in pulling down the ball and running — until things fell apart in the playoffs.

Matt Birk is also now gone. I can't believe Minnesota couldn't match a thee-year, $12 mil deal. Childress said Birk wanted a change of scenery. First I heard of that, but OK. My favorite response came from a fan who simply said: "Screw you, Major Dad!"

So, who are the replacements for Birk? These guys, I guess. One fan on the Star Trib site had this optimistic take:

Last time this happened?

Remember???......4 time Pro Bowl Center...7 years on the team, long time starter...very popular in the community...left in free agency for … read more big money Tampa Bay..we all thought..how do ya replace Jeff Christy??...whos this Matt Birk kid??....its part of the evolution fo a team....very grateful for Matty B and will keep patronizing his restaurant, however I also saw a guy loosing many one on one run blocks against younger linemen...he probably has 2 years in the tank...he might as well make the extra cash and we might as well groom the next Pro Bowl center.....next!

Possible? Yes. Probable? No. Birk is a big loss.

Still, at least the defense is in tact ... so far. The hearing for the Williamses's steroid controversy is June 15.

Baltimore Ravens Free Agency Week 1

There was no way for the Ravens to win this offseason. With Jason Brown, Bart Scott, Ray Lewis, Terrell Suggs, Jim Leohnard, Matt Stover, and Lorenzo Neal becoming free agents, the team was bound to struggle to improve. Each of those players contributed significantly to the team last year.

Going into the offseason, the general consensus was that the Ravens would be smart to make the following moves
- Let Leohnard walk
- Keep Suggs as priority #1
- Make a fair, but firm offer to Ray
- Make an offer to Scott, but if you can't keep him, no big loss considering the young linebackers on the team
- Try your hardest to keep Brown without breaking the bank

I would have considered Brown priority 2b. Keeping Ray or Scott being 2a and Suggs being #1.

Considering these priorities, I'd give the team a C. Suggs is still here, but only thanks to a second straight season of tag. Scott is gone (and they nearly overpaid to keep him) and we don't have Ray. Meanwhile, Brown ran to the Rams. And judging by his words on the way out, the Ravens never made a serious effort to keep him.

The Ray saga is hardly the Ravens' fault. He's acted like a childish debutaunte who has long dreamed of being courted in free agency. But still, the Ravens have to take some blame for the way it's unfolded. And by all accounts, they raised their offer from $12M in gaurantees to $17M even though he's not received a single offer of note from another team.

So the only move of signficance the team has made so far is to sign Dominique Foxworth to a substantial contract for a middle-of-the-pack player. (A contract by the way that is sure to aggravate Ray and further complicate those negotiations) But fine, if the Ravens want to build depth at corner, so be it. At first glance, this contract seems suspect at best. However, I'll give it time before I declare it foolish.

Now, they have Matt Birk in town and are expected to make an offer to him to replace Brown. This move could end up being very smart. Based on last year's success with free agents like Neal and Anderson, I would have high hopes for Birk. And presumably, the contract will be for less than Brown was demanding.

I like the restraint the Ravens have shown so far in not giving away too much money to keep older players. But was there restraint in signing Foxworth on day 1 when there were no known suitors offering similar contracts?

Hey, at least they're not giving away $41M guaranteed to a 28 year old defensive tackle whose never played a complete season.

Washington Redskins: Free-agent weekend #1

Mo' money, mo' money, mo' money
By Nate Sandstrom



Jim Zorn and Jason Taylor hold a #1 jersey last summer. One is the approximate number of sacks Taylor made in his time as a Redskins.

Who's back: DeAngelo Hall
Who's in: Albert Haynesworth, Derrick Dockery
Who's out: Jason Taylor, Shawn Springs, Marcus Washington

I'm choosing to highlight the Redskins' opening free-agency weekend with this photo of Jason Taylor to keep optimistic Redskins fans well-grounded after the Albert Haynesworth signing. Just a reminder that although their massive cash transactions occasionally work out (i.e. London Fletcher) they more often wind up like busts such as Deion Sanders, Bruce Smith, Jeff George, Brandon Lloyd, T.J. Duckett, Dana Stubblefield and now Jason Taylor.

The 'skins gave up $8.5 million, the #44 pick in the upcoming draft and a sixth-round pick next year in exchange for Taylor's 3.5 sacks on a last-place team.

Wasn't Haynesworth supposed to free-up Taylor for sacks? Oh well. Washington was the #4 yardage and #6 scoring defense in the NFL last year.

So why did the Redskins sign a $100 million contract and a $54 million deal with DeAngelo Hall to improve what was one of the best in the NFL last year? Meanwhile, the team has done little to address their biggest problems:

1) Possibly the worst kicking game in the league (last in net punt average and last in field goal accuracy)
2) An offense that was one of two in the league that failed to post 3o points in a single game and an offensive line that couldn't give Campbell time or provide a push for Portis.

They did bring back Derrick Dockery, who was cast aside by the Bills after he signed for big money there. I'm hoping Dockery will be effective this year as Bills cast-away Jim Leonhard was for the Ravens last year.

I will miss Springs and Washington, but both have been injured so much lately that I understand the decision to let them go.

Locally, the overall reaction to the signings seem to be positive, but forgive me for not feeling more enthusiastic about the opening weekend of free agency. (See forums at the Hogs, and the Post for more).

Lockdown: Updated count

By Nate Sandstrom

After blowing the Eagles-Giants game big-time last week, it looks like I am hanging up the "lock" predictions for the season (though I'll take the points in my pool in both games this weekend). I'm not sure if Mark will have any picks this weekend.

It looks like we both finish up for the year on the 100 per game system that avoids exotic bets (i.e. parlays, teasers, etc.) We both fought off mid-season swoons, with Mark closing with eight straight wins ATS and me finishing 9-2-1 ATS.

Here's a look at the final count for those keeping count at home:

ATS
Nate: 27-21-2 (+390)
Mark: 17-10 (+600)

Money line upsets:
Nate: 4-11 (+170)
Mark: 1-5 (-190)

Hey, you can't picks like these for free everywhere.

So, what else is in the news?

You'll probably hear even less from me than you have been in the less month into March, I'm switching to full basketball, hockey and baseball mode. See you at spring practices and the draft!

Oh, heck, one more prediction. Josh McDaniels were be nearly as bad a hire for Denver as Gene Chizik was Iowa State (FYI: Chizik went 5-19, 2-14 in the Big 12 and lost to an FCS team during his two-year tenure in Ames).