Nate's Lockdown: Week 3

By Nate Sandstrom

Well, I should have been set up to be ahead for weeks no matter what on my money line picks, but then Leodis McKelvin, one of my favorite players, at least until this past Monday, had to fumble the ball. And thus my Buffalo +550 pick went down in flames. Mark had the nerve to point out that the ensuing New England TD gave me the over, but breaking even on the game is little solace.

So I finished 1-3 ATS last weekend to drop my to an abysmal 2-4 start as well as 0-1 on the Money Line. Combine that start with the abbreviated explanations I'm about to give due to the fact I think I'll have worked more than 35 hours from Friday-Sunday and I don't blame you for staying away. Of course if you do I'll pull a 2-0. No upset special this week.

St. Louis (+10) at Washington: An offense this bad should never be laying 10 points.
Pick: Washington 13 St. Louis 10

Green Bay (-9.5) at Cincinnati: Last week made things crystal clear that the Bengals still suck.
Pick: Green Bay 27 Cincinnati 10

Lockdown: Week 2

By Nate Sandstrom

Wel1, starting 1-1 isn't great, but if you look around the Web at what the other prognasticators did in Week 1 I'll take essentially breaking even. I'll also take solace that I went 6-4 ATS in my college picks pool -- hopefully a sign I was drawing on the right sources and analyzing correctly in the preseason.

First, a moment to say, WTF Colorado? As I write this they are trailing Toledo 37-10. I can see losing to either in-state rival Colorado State or traditional tough-out at home Toledo, but to lose to BOTH? Coach Hawkins may be in trouble, after all this is Division 1 football.

On to the picks....

Vaderbilt at LSU (-14.5)

Vanderbilt had a story-book year last season, while LSU's year was more like a terrifying nightmare. The vaunted Tiger D was gashed for 30 ppg down the stretch and again struggled at times in the opener at Washington. The performance seems to have infuriated the boys of Baton Rouge though, and I expect good focus from their top-notch recruits in the home opener against the Commodores.

Vandy stuffed the box score last week, but don't be fooled. Western Carolina is among the worst teams in FCS.

How many times will LSU be favored at home over Vandy by this few points in your lifetime. You'll be able to count it on both hands.

Pick: LSU 35 Vanderbilt 10

Purdue at Oregon (-13)

People will be jumping off the Oregon band wagon quickly after the overrated Ducks lost to Boise. Meanwhile, Toledo's apparent win over Colorado may add more credence to the Boilers' three-TD win over the Rockets last weekend.

However, Purdue only outgained Toledo by 42 yards. And while Oregon was dominated at Boise in the first half, a few different bounces and they could've come away with the win.

And think about it this way: Purdue is starting a new QB with a new coach at one of the toughest road venues in the country. The host is going to be mad as hell after losing that game at Boise and the notoriety that followed the Blount punch. And despite the OT game these squads played in West Lafayette last year, the Ducks won the yardage count by almost 100, they just finished -1 in TO.

Pick: Oregon 41 Purdue 14

Denver at Cincinnati (-4.5)

Interestingly enough, when the lines opened for Week 1 so many months ago the Broncos opened 2.5-point favorites. In the meantime, new Denver Coach Josh McDaniels has pissed off everyone he's glanced at while the Bengals are a team on the mend after a few disastrous years. Begals QB Palmer has declared himself 100%, for whatever that's worth, but more importantly the battered Bengal O-Line is showing signs of life and I'll go ahead and call for Chris Henry to haul in a pair of TD's in the start of what could be a bounce-back year in Cincy.

Pick: Cincinnati 30 Denver 13

Upset Special/Lock #4: Buffalo Bills (+550) at New England (over 47.5)

New England seems to be the consensus favorite in the NFL this season, and I'm not hating, I like them a lot too. But I think that secondary is weak, Belichick may be developing a Mike Martz-like aversion to running and as hyped as Tom Brady is, they may be a bit overconfident.

And as skeptical as everyone is about T.O., I expect him to have a big year in Buffalo. Trent Edwards may not be the greatest, but between Owens, fellow deep threat Lee Evans and speedster Roscoe Parrish, the Bills will expose the New England corners.

Brady will come out firing as well, but if they wind up passing 50 times Dick Jauron will be ready for it, and the Bills will be able to outscore the Pats.

Pick: Buffalo 41 New England 34

Lockdown: Updated count

By Nate Sandstrom

After blowing the Eagles-Giants game big-time last week, it looks like I am hanging up the "lock" predictions for the season (though I'll take the points in my pool in both games this weekend). I'm not sure if Mark will have any picks this weekend.

It looks like we both finish up for the year on the 100 per game system that avoids exotic bets (i.e. parlays, teasers, etc.) We both fought off mid-season swoons, with Mark closing with eight straight wins ATS and me finishing 9-2-1 ATS.

Here's a look at the final count for those keeping count at home:

ATS
Nate: 27-21-2 (+390)
Mark: 17-10 (+600)

Money line upsets:
Nate: 4-11 (+170)
Mark: 1-5 (-190)

Hey, you can't picks like these for free everywhere.

So, what else is in the news?

You'll probably hear even less from me than you have been in the less month into March, I'm switching to full basketball, hockey and baseball mode. See you at spring practices and the draft!

Oh, heck, one more prediction. Josh McDaniels were be nearly as bad a hire for Denver as Gene Chizik was Iowa State (FYI: Chizik went 5-19, 2-14 in the Big 12 and lost to an FCS team during his two-year tenure in Ames).

Playoff Lockdown

By Nate Sandstrom


Philadelphia at New York Giants (-4)

Philadelphia seems to be a trendy pick all of a sudden, but before you join the herd let's think about the following items:

1) Despite wins at Minnesota last week and in their last trip to the Meadowlands, the Eagles have often struggled on the road this season (see loss at Washington, tie at Cincy).

2) As mentioned, the Eagles D held New York in check last time they played, but the Giants have had the edge overall in recent meetings, winning the previous three.

3) Minnesota outgained the Eagles by 80 yards on the ground, and they abandoned the rush attack early.

Sorry phickle Philly phans, but your roller coaster season is about to plunge. Feel free to resume your calls for Andy Reid's head, Donovan McNabb's head and start crying again.

The Giants will get their ground game going early and be able to hit slant routes to battle the blitz. It may not be a full-fledged blowout, but I expect New York to be in control the whole time.

Pick: New York 27 Phialdelphia 13

Lockdown: Year End Bonus

By Nate Sandstrom

There are usually few weeks harder to predict NFL lines than Week 17. There's always an interesting set of factors determining which teams will be motivated to get into the playoffs, knock a team out, carry momentum into next year and so on.

This week, there's no shortage of such match-ups and there's been crazy line movement. Yet, I am about to put a year-high four games on lockdown, with the addition of a great upset special. Am I overconfident because I'm on an 8-1-1 run? Yes. But here we go anyway.

Chicago at Houston (-2.5)

The Bears have eeked out back-to-back overtime wins on the first possession of the extra period. Despite that, they've been outgained by more than 100 yards in each contest. Their luck runs out today in Houston, where the Texans are 11-4 the last two seasons.

Pick: Houston 24 Chicago 13

N.Y. Giants at Minnesota (-7)

My dad has insisted all week that the Vikings will choke like they do every year. I submit to you that their choke was last week, when they lost at home to Atlanta because of four lost fumbles. A key fumble late also did the Vikings in against Tampa Bay, otherwise the Purple may be riding an eight game win streak. Expect the Vikes to hold onto the ball today and the Giants to give minimum effort.

Pick: Minnesota 35 N.Y. Giants 16

Clevleand at Pittsburgh (-11)

Cleveland hasn't scored an offensive touchdown their last five games. The Steelers love to run up the score when they can. This will be ugly.

Pick: Pittsburgh 31 Cleveland 6

Washington at San Francisco (-3)

The Redskins banded together and gave their best effort since Week 5 in upsetting the Eagles 10-3 last week. Yes, a 10-3 win was their best effort. In fact, the 'Skins are averaging just 10 ppg in their last seven. Fat and happy after a win and with nothing to play for, the will get stomped in San Fran by Mike Singeltary and the scrappy Niners.

Pick: San Francisco 27 Washington 13

Upset sepcial: Seattle (+250) at Arizona

Other than a home win over the Rams, the Cardinals have been beaten down the last four weeks. They will be motivated to head into the playoffs on a positive note. However, they'll have to do so against one of the best 4-11 teams in history (Insult/praise? I'm not sure). After being outyardaged by 100+ virtually the entire season, they have turned things around going 3-0 ATS and 2-1 SU in their last three. Seneca Wallace and Mo Morris are taking the offense in the right direction and they should continue to gash the beleaguered Cards D. Also, look for a 'Hawks defensive play to score or set up a short offensive score.

Pick: Seattle 23 Arizona 13

Lockdown: I give you these picks, Merry Christmas

After a horrid November, I am back on a roll, in the midst of a 5-0-1 run ATS the past two weeks. I did miss the Niners to win outright last week, but at least they came close, and even outyardaged Miami. Good thing I've been so hot because I'm about to stand out in the cold for six hours at Fed Ex this afternoon. By the way, I'm calling for an (under)Dog Day Afternoon.

Cincinnati (+3) at Cleveland

I remember another cold afternoon I spent in the football stands about five years ago. I witnessed Ken Dorsey throw terrible pass after terrible pass against a terrible Rutgers squad. Somehow, he's in the NFL and starting for the Browns, who haven't scored an offensive touchdown in a month.

Even the Bengals should be able to beat this banged-up Browns team, who will also be missing Winslow and Heiden. Don't actually watch this game, just lock it down.

Pick: Cincinnati 20 Cleveland 9

N.Y. Jets at Seattle (+4)

It's been a pretty horrible year for the 3-11 Seahawks. But Seneca Wallace is improving each week and they've played tough their last three at home. Meanwhile, the Jets are 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS since they exposed the Titans last month. Look for the 'Hawks to take this one in a wintry mix.

Pick: Seattle 24 N.Y. Jets 14

Upset Special: Buffalo (+230) at Denver

Trent Edwards is back and I think the Bills would like to turn it up one last time this season and get a win. Denver is wildly inconsistent, and they seem to play down to the competition. Plus, divine justice would make make Denver lose this game so San Diego has a chance to get the division back after that blown call in week two.

Pick: Buffalo 31 Denver 24

--Nate

Lockdown: December gold edition

Atlanta (-3)
San Francisco to win outright (+240)
Minnesota/Arizona over 47
Washington/Cincy under 36.5

--Nate

Saturday night lock

It's been a busy day so this is all I'm getting to:

Arizona State at Arizona (-10.5)

The Wildcats have lost three straight in this in-state rivalry, but that streak stops tonight. Arizona has shown they can exploit bad defenses and Arizona State has shown they can be one. Still, ASU has won three straight and can get bowl eligible with a win here.

However, I expect the 'cats to take out past years' frustrations in this one.

Pick: Arizona 41 Arizona State 17

--Nate

Early Lockdown: Rutgers-Louisville

By Nate Sandstrom

Louisville (over 52) at Rutgers (-10.5)

Does it seem like longer than two years ago that Louisville at Rutgers were squaring off for a bid the BCS Championship game? It does to me; not much lot has gone right for either team since that last-second 28-25 Rutgers win on Nov. 9, 2006. Louisville basically has not been able to stop anyone from scoring over the past two seasons, while Rutgers has suffered a string of embarassing losses, especially at home.

Rutgers stumbled out of the gate 1-5 this year, with the only win being at home against Morgan State. However, they're now riding a five-game winning streak, including winning the last four by an average 24.5 points (they even won at Pitt 54-34).

Meanwhile, Louisville (5-6) has lost four straight and need a win tonight to become bowl eligible. In a similar position last year, they were able to upset Rutgers and earn a .500 record.

However, I look for the Rutgers pass attack to take advantage of a young Louisville secondary on senior night. No doubt that QB Mike Teel, WR Kenny Britt and others to take out the frustrations of the last two years on the Cards. At the same time, Louisvile almost always gets their scores. Gimme Rutgers and the over.

Pick: Rutgers 43 Louisville 24

Lockdown, late edition

Never take a game to get one back; except now when I'm tkaing the Niners while I can still get +9.5 at Dallas. Injured Terrence Newman? All right!

--Nate

Early lockdown

I've taken a beating the past two weeks in the NFL (1-3), but I just have to document that I have the Steelers rolling over a half-strength Bengals team.

Pick: Pittsburgh 35 Cincinnati 10

--Nate

Lokdown: Stab in the dark version

By Nate Sandstrom

We all know that I tend to prefer picking college games, but a jam-packed few days leading up to Saturday didn't give me time to run the numbers. That leads me to today, where I'm going totally against the numbers and purely on my gut. A sure recipe for 0-3? We'll see.

Minnesota (+5) at Tampa Bay

Minnesota is 1-3 on the road, while Tampa is 4-0 at home. Tampa is 9-4 ATS in their last 13 home games, Minnesota is 3-9 ATS in their last 12 overall, including 0-3 ATS on grass.

But I feel like last week was a season momentum-changing win for the Vikes, who will be able to contain Tampa's rush attack.

Pick: Minnesota 20 Tampa Bay 16

San Diego (+5) at Pittsburgh

The Chargers defense has been nothing but horrible this year, and the Chargers haven't won in Pittsburgh since the '94 AFC Championship Game. They also should have lost at home to Kansas City.

But as long as Awfulsburger is QB for the Steelers throwing ducks with a bum shoulder, I'll take San Diego's turnover-creating defense.

Pick: San Diego 30 Pittsburgh 24

Tennessee at Jacksonville (+3)

Tennessee is 8-1 ATS this year, while Jacksonville is 3-6 ATS. They are 0-4 ATS at home this year, and 1-8 ATS their last nine on grass. If you remember back to Week 1, I took the Titans +3 as home dogs against the Jags for a lockdown win.

This week, I'm taking the Jags as the three-point home dog, and not just because I like three-point home dogs. The Jags finally outrushed an opponent by more than 50 yards for the first time since September, so I'm looking for them to continue that trend.

Pick: Jacksonville 17 Tennessee 16

Lockdown V. 11.perfect

By Nate Sandstrom

After dropping to the negative side on the $100/game strategy at the end of October, I pulled a perfect 3-0 ATS to the start November. And had it not been for a missed field goal at the end of regulation by Duke, I would have hit the upset special at nearly 3-1 as well.

Here's the updated standings:
Nate: 18-14 (+$260)
Mark: 9-10 (-$200)

Upset special:
Nate: 3-7 (+$340)
Mark: 1-4 (-$190)

Toss-Up
Nate and Mark tied at 1-1

But that's enough bragging, neither Mark or I are feeling great about this weekend. But here's the few winners I got:

Arizona at Washington (under 51)

With these two sputtering offenses and rain in the forecast, I'm going under all the way, even though the total is moving up.

Maybe there's something I don't know, but here's what I do: ASU has been outyardaged in their last five, three times by more than 150. The Huskies meanwhile have been outyardaged in all eight of their miserable games this season, including by the last two when that margin increased to over 300.

Check out Western U.S. Fox Spors Networks for this classic.

Pick: Arizona State 21 Washington 10

New Mexico (-5.5) at UNLV

At a quick glance, UNLV is just a hair from a good season. They got off to a 3-1 start and despite a five-game losing streak lost by just 1 vs. Air Force and 7 at BYU. However, look closer and you'll notice that they've been outyardaged in six of their last eight games, including last week's TCU debacle. The Rebels may be fired up because they need to win out, but redshirt freshman QB Mike Clausen will be making his first start. Take the Lobos and their superior ground game.

Pick: New Mexico 26 UNLV 10

Upset Special:

Marsahall (+250) at East Carolina

On Sept. 7, this pick would have looked mad. Marsahll was fresh off a 5-TD shallacking at Wisconsin while the Pirates had just upset Virginia Tech and blow out West Virginia. But in recent weeks, these teams have gone opposite directions and now they battle for the lead in CUSA East.

The Herd upset the Pirates last year to keep them out of the conference championship, look for it to happen again.

Pick: Marshall 31 East Carolina 21

Lockdown: Week 10

By Nate Sandstrom

Alright, finally a Saturday morning where I'm not traveling or working and can put my full attention on lockdown. After a fast start, Mark and I have been losing our shirts lately, so we need to turn it around. Here's to a perfect weekend!

Updated standings:
Nate: 15-14 (-$40)
Mark: 9-10 (-$200)

Upset special:
Nate: 3-6 (+$440)
Mark: 1-4 (-$190)

Toss-Up
Nate and Mark tied at 1-1

Nate's picks:
Florida (-6.5) vs. Georgia

Forget about Georgia stomping on the Gator after last year's game, Florida is simply a better team. They've scored 30 points in every contest except their 26-3 domination of the Canes.

We have to acknowledge that UGa just put up 52 against LSU, yet the Bulldog attack has proven more inconsistent over the year. If you can contain Knowson Moreno, you can contain the offense. Expect the Gators to do just that.

Pick: Florida 35 Georgia 20

Washington at USC (-46)

The Trojans have no class. The Huskies have to talent. Uh-oh! USC just beat the even worse Washington State Cougars 69-0, while Washington was just blown out by Notre Dame.

Not much too watch here but see how little Ty Willingham cares when Pete Carroll passes on first down in the fourth quarter while up by 6 TD's.

Pick: USC 56 Washington 0

New England (+6) at Indianapolis

I've said it since Week 1, the Colts suck. They still have flashes of being the old Colts, but outside of their blowout over the Ravens they have done nothing.

Randy Moss is on the injury report, but he'll play and play well in prime time per usual. Half team is on the injury report in fact, but we all know Belichick is a liar.

My only worry is that Belichick will outsmart himself and not run the ball (see Ravens game plan vs. Colts). Even then, I'll go back to my theory of the Colts sucking.

My pick: New England 26 Indianapolis 17

Upset Special:

Duke (+275) at Wake Forest

Not much of a payoff on this one, but Duke has been good to us here on lockdown, taking down UVa. with the points and beating Vandy outright last week. Unlike the overvalued Dukey basketball team, Blue Devil football seems to be overlooked by the public. They are veteran team with good leadership under new coach David Cutcliffe.

Meanwhile, Wake Forest has imploded since they beat Florida State. They are 1-3 in the last four, with the only victory coming against fellow flop Clemson Tigers.

Pick: Duke 17 Wake Forest 13

Lockdown: Week 8 Edition

By Nate Sandstrom

Early last Saturday I was talking to my buddy Jim Butts and he commented how well I was doing on lockdown. Clearly he was trying to jinx me because I went 1-4 for the weekend. At least that was better than Mark, although he beat me in the Texas-Oklahoma toss-up.

Follow me at your own risk, but I will hope to bounce back. In Denver for a wedding this weekend so you get a rushed edition as I get ready for my flight. I'm banking on more top-ranked teams being upset, and not just because I want to be proved right by putting Penn State #1 this week. To keep that thought going, I'm starting with the upset special:

Mississippi (+375) at Alabama

The Rebels are the best damned 3-3 team in the nation. Their three losses are by a combined 15 points. That close game experience will pay off this week and they will pull their second upset of a Top 10 and previously undefeated team.

Alabama's in the midst of the weakest part of the schedule and this is the perfect spot for them to so complacency. I know I took this same theory in taking Kentucky over 'bama, but get this one in quick, the payoff is falling like a rock.

Pick: Mississippi 31 Alabama 29

Missouri at Texas (-4.5)

Always take the team with their backs against the wall, right? Does that still apply when you're going with a team that hasn't won in Austin since the 1890's? Chalk last week up to a look-ahead game for Missouri and the last century of their trips to Texas as a look-ahead century. Serioulsy though, Missouri is really good and Texas is fat and happy after beating Oklahoma. The Tigers will be motivated to stay in the national title hunt while the 'Horns will have a short stay at #1. Don't worry Texas fans, you should have a crack at the #2 OSU Pokes the next week.

Pick: Missouri 35 Texas 28

Georgia Tech (-2) at Clemson

How did that mid-season coaching change work out for Auburn (the only game we had right here at lockdown) last week? Poor Tommy Bowden? Sure, Georgia Tech was outyardaged by Gardner-Webb and barely won, but chalk that up as a look ahead they still won. Clemson has a new QB, a new coach and Spiller is out.

Pick: Georgia Tech 27 Clemson 13

Minnesota at Chicago (-3)

A-Pete should top 100 yards, but count on the Bears sacking Gus Frerotte at least four times. Devin Hester will torch the Vikes again and I will put Kyle Orton on next week's first edition of MVP Watch.

Pick: Chicago 26 Minnesota 14

Lockdown: Week 7 or Return of the toss-up

By Nate Sandstrom and Mark Goldman

Mark and I haven't gone head-to-head on a game since Labor Day, but in honor of this year's second Game of the Century, we are going to chime in on this year's Red River Shootout.

Oklahoma (-6.5) vs. Texas

Nate says:

So both teams have stud QB's, are stocked with highly-touted recruits and have blown teams that should be playing in bowl games at the end of the year but are still looking for that signature win that can keep them at #1.

However, go inside the numbers and you will see that Texas' secondary may be vulnerable. The 'Horns have not out-passed an opponent by more than 40 yards this season. Their last five games last year they were out-passed by 130 yards or more!

Skies will be party cloudy and temperatures around 80 degrees today, and that kind of passing weather should prove the difference in a 28-17 Sooners win.

Mark says:

Though the lock of the week seems to be the over in this game, give me Texas (+6.5). Both QBs are playing out of their minds this year, but I always prefer accuracy and there's nothing like a QB who is completing 79% of his passes. These two teams are pretty evenly matched up, both 5-0 with potent offenses and close season stats. So in a big game, give me the more accurate QB and the points. It doesn't hurt that Oklahoma is giving up almost 50 yards per game on the ground more than Texas, who already rushes for 198 yards per game. Nobody is staying on top long this year and watch Oklahoma be the next to fall in the outright loss today.

Now, onto updated standings.

Lockdown:
Nate: 11-8 (+220)
Mark: 6-4 (+160)

Upset Special:
Nate: 2-4 (+320)
Mark: 1-2 (+10)

Toss-Up:
Nate leads 1-0

This week's lockdown:

Nate says:


St. Louis at Washington (-13.5)

This is not a homer pick. Almost everyone I've talked to this week has been scared off laying 13.5, it's a Tom Brady-Patriots' kind of number. But I say it is justified.

The Rams have been outscored by 26 points a game. Their closest loss is a 17-point home loss to Buffalo. So why would they cover this number? Because the man who has led this hapless defense, Jim Haslett, has taken over as interim coach for an 0-4 team?

Last week was the let down spot for Washington, not this week. 'Skins will roll and keep the Rams winless.

Pick: Washington 38 St. Louis 10

N. Y. Giants (-7.5) at Cleveland

For all the credit that Eli Manning has gotten since New York's Super Bowl run last year, it has been the Giants' ability to plug in different running backs and roll up yardage that has truly impressed me.

Now their top-ranked 181-ypg rushing attack heads to Cleveland to take on the #22 rush defense on Monday Night. It's also a match-up of the league's #1 total offense against the #32 total offense. Yes, the Browns are awful. Last year was a combination of flukes and a last place schedule. Plus, Kellen Winslow is in the hospital with an undisclosed illness.

Pick: NY Giants 37 Cleveland 6

Tulsa (-24.5) at SMU

New head coach June Jones has not worked out so well for the 1-5 Mustangs. The heralded offensive guru's new offense has averaged just 323 yards per game. Here the worst part: The SMU "D" has been torched for 479 yards per game. Here's the worser part: Tulsa averages 596 yards per game. The Golden Hurricane, who have won their shootouts by average of 56-25, may get 700 yards tonight.

Pick: Tulsa 63 SMU 27

Arkansas at Auburn (-17.5)

That is not a typo. I'm taking Arkansas.

For those who follow this feature regularly, you'll know that I've picked against Arkansas three weeks in a row and the result for those who listened to me is money in the bank.

However, last week the Hogs played well and the Gators got the ol' back-door cover by running up the score late (remember this is the same team that kicked a field goal as time expired to beat Miami 26-3).

Meanwhile, Auburn is in turmoil after panicing and firing their offensive coordinator this week. Expect Arkansas to take Auburn late into the game before falling short.

Pick: Auburn 14 Arkansas 9

Upset Special: Louisiana Tech (+260) at Hawaii.

Nothing I love this week, but this a feature so I'll stick with it. I'm looking to Hawaii, who played their best game of the year in an overtime upset at Fresno State last week. Meanwhile, Louisiana Tech played their worst game of the year when they were blown out at Boise.

This is a series that has traditionally favored, the home team, perhaps not surprising given the distance between the two schools. Come to think of it, this pick makes no sense. Oh well.

Pick: Louisana Tech 37 Hawaii 35

Mark's picks coming perhaps after he finishes the half marathon today.

Nate's Lockdown: Week 6

Going to have to be short and sweet because I have to leave for my flight to catch Badgers-Buckeyes in less than an hour. But after a weekend when I went 2-1 (missed Penn State by a point) and hit a 4-1 upset special, I wouldn't want to deprive our readers of more quality picks.

Florida (-24.5) at Arkansas

If you've read my blog frequently, you'd know I've had a beat against Arkansas theory that has paid all year. After Florida lost to Ole Miss, the line is down enough to find value in the Gators. UF will be eager to take out last week's loss on the poor Hogs, who will just have to suffer through a rebuilding year.

Pick: Florida 48 Arkansas 10

Northern Illinois at Tennessee (-16.5)

Northern Illinois obviously has much less talent than the Vols, but they've shown a lot of grit following a down year in DeKalb. They're a few plays from 4-0, and although they will eventually fall short of a great upset, they will hang around enough to make Tennessee Coach Phil Fulmer start to worry about his job.

Pick: Tennessee 27 Northern Illinois 21

Rice at Tulsa (over 80.5)

"Over 80.5!" you say? Well, these two high-flying offenses might hit for a total of 100 points. The teams played in 96- and 97-point affairs last week; they've scored a combined 91 and 79 the last two times they met.

Tulsa's average game has been 55-24, while Rice's average score is 41-34. I smell the century mark.

Pick: Tulsa 62 Rice 41

Pittsburgh at Jacksonville (-4)

Pittsburgh is coming off a short week and an overtime win. Jacksonville is also coming off an overtime win, but at least they didn't lose two players for the season. The Steelers are beat up, and will feel no better after this trip to Florida.

Pick: Jacksonville 27 Pittsburgh 13

Upset Special: Kentucky (+500) at Alabama

I know you think this insane, but have you watched college football the last few years? The Wildcats are under the radar with the graduation of Andre Woodson but they are undefeated. This is the perfect let down spot for the Tide, who showed they can look past a team by the way they fell at home to UL-Moroe last year.

Pick: Kentucky 27 Alabama 23

Lockdown: Week 5

By Nate Sandstrom

Doesn't it figure that the week where I break through on my upset special (Boise State with the win at +320) I pull an unspectacular 1-3. I will point out that North Carolina was cruising before Yates went out.

At least my pick against Arkansas theory finally paid off. I'm going to that well one more time.

Locks
Arkansas at Texas (-27)

It's rare that I would lay 27 points in a border war game; however, the Longhorns average margin of victory is 37.6. You may say, "Ya, but that was against Florida Atlantic, UTEP and Rice."

I respond: Arkansas beat Western Illinois by four and UL-Monroe by one. They trailed in the fourth quarter in both games. Get ready for a long season, Bobby Petrino.

Pick: Texas 55 Arkansas 13

Virginia at Duke (-7)

Duke hasn't beat Virginia since 1999. They've won two games the previous three years. But junior QB Thaddeus Lewis has guided the Blue Devils to a 2-1 start, posting a 5 TD-o INT ration. UVa's QB's have thrown no touchdowns and five picks.

Pick: Duke 31 Virginia 14

Illinois at Penn State (-15)

I'm not quite sure why Illinois is in the Top 25, other than that they were good last year. At the same time, I'm not sure why Penn State is not in the Top 10.

Both situations should be rectified this week. Penn State has putting up points like it's 1994. They'll be eager to avenge last year's loss to Illinois, a game they could have easily won.

Pick: Penn State 48 Illinois 21

Upset Special

Washington (+400) at Dallas

It will likely be the 'Skins last ever trip to Texas stadium. Why not end it with a major upset? After the opening night disaster against the Giants the burgundy and gold have looked much shaper. I know Dallas has been dominant, but in recent matches it also seems like this is a game that Washington gets more up for.

It's possible Washington will get blown out; Romo will definitely get at least one long pass past the safeties. But when you're getting 4-1 for a 2-1 team playing a divisional game, I call it a good investment.

Pick: Washington 31 Dallas 28

Updated standings for Mark and I:

Lockdown:
Nate: 6-6 (-60)
Mark 5-2 (+280)

Upset Special:
Nate: 1-3 (+20)
Mark: 1-1 (+110)

Toss-Up
Nate leads Mark 1-0

Lockdown: Week 4

By Nate Sandstrom

With Missouri having just destroyed Nevada early Saturday, my lockdown picks were 5-1 for the year. An Auburn flub that night and a Vikings collapse a day later, my picks are suddenly a pedestrian 5-3.

Add to that my near miss on UL-Monroe at +450 two weeks ago and the upset special is now 0-3.

Update standings for Mark and I:

Lockdown:
Nate: 5-3 (+170)
Mark 5-2 (+280)

Upset Special:
Nate: 0-3 (-300)
Mark: 1-1 (+110)

Toss-Up
Nate leads Mark 1-0

Onto this weeks picks, which by total coincidence almost totally involve the Tar Heel state. I've also thrown in a bonus pick in an effort to boost my record.

East Carolina (-7) at N.C. State

After narrowly avoiding a loss to Tulane, it looks like the public may be wavering on how good the Pirates actually are. Now that Virginia Tech has looked poor in two games following their opening loss to East Carolina, and West Virginia has lost again, perhaps it's understandable.

But don't fail to notice how bad N.C. State may be. They've been outyardaged by 140 or more in their last three against Division 1-A opponents, going back to last year's 37-0 shutout against Maryland. The Wolfpack won this match-up last year in a game also thought ECU would win, but I think this year the Pirates keep their bid for a BCS Bowl alive.

Pick: East Carolina 27 N.C. State 7

North Carolina (-3) vs. Virginia Tech

The Tar Heels haven't had a winning football team since 2001, but they may have put the nation on notice that they are back after whipping Rutgers in New Jersey 44-12 last weekend. UNC was actually outyardaged by Rutgers, as well as McNeese State in the opener, but their big play capability has Butch Davis' squad back on the map.

Meanwhile, a team know for big plays, Virginia Tech, has certainly lacked them this season. The QB controversy is in full effect as Glennon and Taylor have thrown 1 TD combined. They were outyardaged by 14o in their narrow home win against Ga. Tech last week and I expect the offense to continue their struggles.

Pick: North Carolina 31 Virginia Tech 16

Alabama (-9) at Arkansas

If you've been reading the blog this year, you'd notice that I think the 'Hogs may be one of the most overrated teams in the nation. I called for them to be defeated at home by both 1-AA Western Illinois and two-touchdown 'dog UL-Monroe. Late rallies prevented both picks from coming true, but there will be no rally against the Tide, who are allowing less than 8 ppg.

Pick: Alabama 37 Arkansas 13

Carolina (+3) at Minnesota

Disregard everything I said about the Vikings in this week's faceoff. Sharper, Peterson and Berrian are questionable this week. Rice is doubtful. Frerotte is the starter. Childress is an idiot. Even a time with this much talent in the trenches can't overcome this situation.

Pick: Carolina 20 Minnesota 10

Upset Special: Boise State (+320) at Oregon

As much success as Boise State has had over the past decade, they've never won a road game against a BCS team. But Oregon's QB situation is up in the air again, and we all remember what happened after Dixon went down last year. I'm guessing Oregon will still put points on the board, but costly turnovers will do them in.

Pick: Boise State 37 Oregon 34

Lockdown: Week 3

By Nate Sandstrom

About to leave for the Twins game so here is the quick and dirty with explanations coming tomorrow a.m. Don't worry, I'm hot.

Auburn -10.5
Missouri -26.5
Vikings +2

Upset special: Ohio State +375