Lockdown: I give you these picks, Merry Christmas

After a horrid November, I am back on a roll, in the midst of a 5-0-1 run ATS the past two weeks. I did miss the Niners to win outright last week, but at least they came close, and even outyardaged Miami. Good thing I've been so hot because I'm about to stand out in the cold for six hours at Fed Ex this afternoon. By the way, I'm calling for an (under)Dog Day Afternoon.

Cincinnati (+3) at Cleveland

I remember another cold afternoon I spent in the football stands about five years ago. I witnessed Ken Dorsey throw terrible pass after terrible pass against a terrible Rutgers squad. Somehow, he's in the NFL and starting for the Browns, who haven't scored an offensive touchdown in a month.

Even the Bengals should be able to beat this banged-up Browns team, who will also be missing Winslow and Heiden. Don't actually watch this game, just lock it down.

Pick: Cincinnati 20 Cleveland 9

N.Y. Jets at Seattle (+4)

It's been a pretty horrible year for the 3-11 Seahawks. But Seneca Wallace is improving each week and they've played tough their last three at home. Meanwhile, the Jets are 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS since they exposed the Titans last month. Look for the 'Hawks to take this one in a wintry mix.

Pick: Seattle 24 N.Y. Jets 14

Upset Special: Buffalo (+230) at Denver

Trent Edwards is back and I think the Bills would like to turn it up one last time this season and get a win. Denver is wildly inconsistent, and they seem to play down to the competition. Plus, divine justice would make make Denver lose this game so San Diego has a chance to get the division back after that blown call in week two.

Pick: Buffalo 31 Denver 24

--Nate