Lockdown -- Week 4

I bounced back last week going 2-1, but I'm still looking for perfection.

Saturday
Purdue (-21.5) vs. Notre Dame
If you just bet against Notre Dame all year, you could retire by now. I'm coming late to the game, but better late than never. Curtis Painter has a 16/1 TD ratio, and the Irish should allow him to add to his impressive stats.
Purdue 45 Notre Dame 10

Sunday
Over 40 Baltimore/Cleveland. Baltimore has played in games with totals over 40 twice and Cleveland has each week. Plus, the Ravens are banged up. I'm calling for a total of 50.
Cleveland 27 Baltimore 23

Monday
New England (-7.5) at Cincinnati.
The Patriots have been the model of consistency. They have won 38-14, 38-14 and 38-7. The Bengals D has given up 20 points or more in each of their games. Uh-oh. Usually when games look this easy I go the other way, but I think people might just be putting too much stock into the Bengals being at home.
New England 45 Cincinnati 21

Upset Special (10-point or more dog to win)
Indiana (+365/+10.5) at Iowa
This is the second straight week when I would rather pick no upset special, but like I said then, it's a weekly feature.
The fact that the Hoosiers caught the Hawks off-guard last year makes me even more skeptical, but the Hawks have had two narrow losses in a row and I'm hoping their heads are down.
The line has actually moved in Indiana's favor since it opened, so what they hey, here we go on the high payout:
Indiana 24 Iowa 23

NFL QB Revenge Weekend

Three NFL quarterbacks will have a chance to get back at the teams that got rid of them this weekend.

None will likely be more motivated than Daunte Culpepper in his return to Miami. Billed as the answer and then the problem in his one season with the 'Phins, it was kind of convenient that McCown got injured before this game to elevate Daunte as the starter. Should be an interesting game, partly because both teams' highly-touted D's have played so poorly. I wouldn't want to touch a line of Miami -4. Pick: Miami 27 Oakland 21.

In Atlanta, fans are wishing that Vick's idiot cousin or whoever it was had been popped for selling drugs a few weeks earlier. Despite his bad rep, Harrington has a passer rating of 90.6 this season.

But Schaub is over 100, and Texans fans for the first time can dream of the playoffs.

Atlanta outyardaged the Panthers by more than 100 last weekend but still lost. This still strikes me as a good spot for Atlanta, but in this matchup, I'll take Houston. Pick: Houston 20 Atlanta 16

Finally, the Browns' Derek Anderson gets another shot at the team who drafted him, even though Jamal Lewis is the one really fired up to get back at the Ravens. The Ravens should have lost on this trip last year. Pick: Cleveland 27 Baltimore 23


Bonus revenge comes in the Pittsburgh-Arizona game. Former Steelers coaches Ken Whisenhunt and the snubbed Russ Grimm will have their Cardinals ready for the Steelers, who have run over all comers thus far. Before the year I marked this down as a Cards win, but I'm less confident now. Hines Ward was listed as doubtful today. Pick: Arizona 23 Pittsburgh 19

--Nate Sandstrom