Lockdown: Week 5

By Nate Sandstrom

Doesn't it figure that the week where I break through on my upset special (Boise State with the win at +320) I pull an unspectacular 1-3. I will point out that North Carolina was cruising before Yates went out.

At least my pick against Arkansas theory finally paid off. I'm going to that well one more time.

Locks
Arkansas at Texas (-27)

It's rare that I would lay 27 points in a border war game; however, the Longhorns average margin of victory is 37.6. You may say, "Ya, but that was against Florida Atlantic, UTEP and Rice."

I respond: Arkansas beat Western Illinois by four and UL-Monroe by one. They trailed in the fourth quarter in both games. Get ready for a long season, Bobby Petrino.

Pick: Texas 55 Arkansas 13

Virginia at Duke (-7)

Duke hasn't beat Virginia since 1999. They've won two games the previous three years. But junior QB Thaddeus Lewis has guided the Blue Devils to a 2-1 start, posting a 5 TD-o INT ration. UVa's QB's have thrown no touchdowns and five picks.

Pick: Duke 31 Virginia 14

Illinois at Penn State (-15)

I'm not quite sure why Illinois is in the Top 25, other than that they were good last year. At the same time, I'm not sure why Penn State is not in the Top 10.

Both situations should be rectified this week. Penn State has putting up points like it's 1994. They'll be eager to avenge last year's loss to Illinois, a game they could have easily won.

Pick: Penn State 48 Illinois 21

Upset Special

Washington (+400) at Dallas

It will likely be the 'Skins last ever trip to Texas stadium. Why not end it with a major upset? After the opening night disaster against the Giants the burgundy and gold have looked much shaper. I know Dallas has been dominant, but in recent matches it also seems like this is a game that Washington gets more up for.

It's possible Washington will get blown out; Romo will definitely get at least one long pass past the safeties. But when you're getting 4-1 for a 2-1 team playing a divisional game, I call it a good investment.

Pick: Washington 31 Dallas 28

Updated standings for Mark and I:

Lockdown:
Nate: 6-6 (-60)
Mark 5-2 (+280)

Upset Special:
Nate: 1-3 (+20)
Mark: 1-1 (+110)

Toss-Up
Nate leads Mark 1-0

All good things must come to an end

I almost called this post "living on the edge." Either titlee fits the seasons of Wisconsin, which had the nation's longest winning steak broken last weekend, and USC, which had the nation's longest home winning streak snapped by a 41-point underdog on Saturday.

For the Badgers thus far, their games have been similar. Fall behind less talented team. Push ahead of less talented team. Let less talented team get back in it. Pull out win in the end.

On Saturday, the Badgers followed the early part of the script, but forgot the rest. I can't say I'm entirely surprised, I had already ranked Illinois #16 coming into the game and as soon as Vegas posted them as favorites I was concerned.

Nonetheless, I mounted the Badger "W" on the front of my house on Saturday morning and hoped for the best.



The score, 31-26, wasn't very Big 10, but the hitting was. Wisconsin WR Luke Swan was knocked out of the game, and his Badger career is now over. Too bad, as he was having a solid season and may have had a chance to make an NFL team next year.

Meanwhile, Illinois lost QB Juice Williams, although Eddie McGee continued to show he is no slouch. WR Arrelious Benn was also injured. Both appear unfazed.

So now the questions are: 1) How will Wisconsin rebound after their first loss in 15 games? 2) How will Illinois players respond to their new found success?

Before the season, I pegged the Badgers only loss this season to be at Penn State this Saturday, although I feel less confident that they will win in Ohio State each week. I think they can win at Penn State, but I'm going to wait and see how the injury report reads before making a pick on this one.

Illinois heads to Iowa, a reeling team with a pathetic offense. Hard to believe, but Iowa has lost eight straight Big 10 games. But Ferentz is 3-0 vs. Zook.

I had Illinois to win this game before the year started. At the time it seemed like an upset but obviously not anymore. Illini are opening as a 3.5 point favorite, but if they lose focus they could slip.

Now to USC. While they have not fallen behind in games like Wisconsin, they have had a tendency to let teams hang around. They finally got burned by Stanford.

USC had won 35 straight home games, with their last loss also to Stanford in 2001. Matt Hayes calls Saturday's result the end of the dynasty. Booty is hurt. Oh no!

I'm not ready to say the sky is falling. This is the nation's most talented team and I don't believe any team will finish the year undefeated. It's going to be tough for them to get back in the title picture, but if they run the table, including wins against Cal, Oregon and Arizona State, they'll have a shot.

Congrats on beating the best team in history, Coach Harbaugh.

Ironically enough, another upset minded team now has the nation's longest home winning steak — Appalachian State.

--Nate Sandstrom

What a weekend

I know I say this every weekend, but it was a great sports weekend. Not so much for some of the teams I follow, but there was plenty to watch.

Even though this is a football blog, let me start with baseball. I've watched closely as the Mets and Padres have tanked their seasons over the last few days. ESPN covers it extensively and asks people to rank the Mets' collapse with other chokes. When I was on people put it at the top, which I find ridiculous, given the other choices.

At least the Padres get a chance at redemption tomorrow (7:30 Eastern on TBS). Likely Cy Young winner Jake Peavy takes the mound in Denver against Josh Fogg. That the Padres are only -145 favorites in this pitching match-up speaks volumes about the direction in which these teams are headed.

Isn't it ironic that Tony Gwynn's son might be responsible for keeping the Pads out of the playoffs?

Okay, back to football, the stated topic of our little blog.

On Friday, River Hill (Clarksville) continued to make their case to be the best team in the Baltimore area by posting a 57-0 win over Hammond (Columbia). They have now outscored their opponents 184-0 in four games. They take on Howard County's only other undefeated team, Wilde Lake (Columbia) this Friday. We'll have a preview of the key players on Thursday.

Michael Campanaro accounted for five TDs on Friday. Read more about this weekend's top performers here.

In the D.C. area, DeMatha rolled St. John's 35-6. Friendly (Fort Washington), likely the state's best team, beat McDonough(Pomfret) 40-0.

Call Saturday what you will —"upset Saturday," "train wreck Saturday" — five of the Top 10 went down. Of the five who did win, only Ohio State did so easily.

It would be easy to attribute several of these upsets to look-ahead games: LSU and Florida and Texas and Oklahoma all face off next week. In Texas' case, I just don't think the Longhorns are that good.

Of all the teams I've watched thus far, I am most impressed by Ohio State, who dominated Minnesota. Their defense is scary good. I'm not sure that Wisconsin will be able to score more than 20 against them.

That may not be enough fr a Wisky win, because the Badgers defense has been scary bad. When Jack Ikegwuonu has missed time, like against the Citadel and saturday's 37-34 close call against Michigan State, they seem incapable of making a stop. They did however come up with big third and fourth down stops against the Spartans.

Ike was suffering from an unidentified illness. The State Journal discusses the D0 here.

Wisconsin is off to Champaign this weekend to take on Illinois, who is really good. I don't know how Ron Zook talked all these kids into attending Illinois, but I expect they'll beat at least one more ranked team this year.

Before we leave the Big 10, I want everyone to see the uniforms the Gophers wore on Saturday by clicking on that link. Looks like they saw the Eagles' ugly challenge and raised.


Leaving the Big Ten behind, how wide open is the Big 12 now? I still feel like Oklahoma is the favorite. Missouri is probably the team to beat in the North, but it appears Colorado and Kansas State have the ability to push them.

In the ACC, how about Maryland's win at Rutgers? Nothing like a total meltdown to inspire you to upset a Top 10 team on the road the following week. I didn't watch a lot of this game, but I think the box score tells the story. Run the ball. Run it some more. 239 yards on the ground! Here's a Post story.


South Florida should request a patent on how to beat West Virginia. Rutgers' loss puts the Bulls in the Big East penthouse, but as Louisville and Rutgers found out last year, it's not always an easy place to stay.

Holy crap! It's midnight. Look for more this week.

--Nate Sandstrom