Nate's 2008 college football predictions — Part 1

By Nate Sandstrom

I'm off to the Orioles-White Sox game tonight, so I'm posting my picks in three segments. This first segment gives you my predictions for where things will stand at the end of what should be yet another exciting and controversial regular season.

After the game, I will post my projected bowl matchups and final Top 25 rankings. I will also post "Five Bold Predictions" (you can debate whether they are bold) that will give a look inside the raw numbers I'm posting here.

Below I've listed the conference and overall records I am calling for each team to finish with, as well as where I predict they will be ranked in the final Coaches Top 25 poll. In case of a tie, the teams have been ranked in order of head-to-head tie-breaker. An asterisk indicates that I call for that team to win its conference championship game.

One thing you may notice is that I am calling for no teams to finish undefeated and three BCS teams to finish with one loss, meaning another year of controversy on who should play in the national title game. I'll get more into how I am predicting that to break down later tonight in my "Bold Predictions" post.

2008 Preseason Picks — End of regular season

Top 25
1. Oklahoma 12-1
2. Clemson 12-1
3. Ohio State 11-1
4. Auburn 11-2
5. USC 10-2
6. Florida 11-2
7. Georgia 10-2
8. Texas Tech 10-2
9. W. Virginia 10-2
10. S. Florida 11-1
11. Texas 10-2
12. Missouri 11-2
13. Wisconsin 10-2
14, Oregon 10-2
15. LSU 9-3
16. Penn St. 9-3
17. Va. Tech 10-3
18. S. Carolina 8-4
19. Tennessee 8-4
20. Wake Forest 9-3
21 N. Carolina 9-3
22. Boise St. 11-1
23. Utah 10-2
24. BYU 11-1
25.Tulsa 12-1

Standings:
SEC East
1. Florida 7-2 11-2
2. Georgia 6-2 10-2
3. S. Carolina 5-3 8-4
4. Tennessee 4-4 8-4
5. Kentucky 3-5 6-6
6. Vanderbilt 0-8 2-10

SEC West
1. Auburn* 7-2 11-2
2. LSU 5-3 9-3
3. Alabama 4-4 7-5
4. Mississippi 4-4 7-5
5. Miss. State 2-6 6-6
6. Arkansas 2-6 3-9

Big Ten
1. Ohio State 7-1 11-1
2. Wisconsin 6-2 10-2
3. Penn State 5-3 9-3
4. Mich. St. 5-3 8-4
5. Iowa 5-3 8-4
6. N’western 4-4 7-5
7. Illinois 3-5 6-6
8. Purdue 3-5 5-7
9. Minnesota 3-5 5-7
10. Indiana 2-6 5-7
11. Michigan 1-7 3-9

Pac-10
1. USC 8-1 10-2
2. Oregon 7-2 10-2
3. UCLA 5-4 5-7
4. Oregon St. 5-4 7-5
5. Arizona 5-4 8-4
6. Cal 5-4 7-5
7. Arizona St. 4-5 6-6
8. Washington 3-6 4-8
9. Stanford 2-7 3-9
10. Wash. St. 1-8 3-9

Big 12 South
1. Oklahoma* 8-1 12-1
2. Texas Tech 6-2 10-2
3. Texas 6-2 10-2
4. Tex. A&M 4-4 7-5
5. Okl. State 3-5 7-5
6. Baylor 0-8 1-11

Big 12 North
1. Missouri 7-2 11-2
2. Kansas 5-3 8-4
3. Nebraska 3-5 7-5
4. Kansas St. 3-5 6-6
5. Colorado 3-5 5-7
6. Iowa St. 1-7 3-9

ACC Atlantic
1. Clemson* 8-1 12-1
2. Florida St. 5-3 8-4
3. Wake 5-3 9-3
4. Maryland 4-4 8-4
5. N.C. State 2-6 3-9
6. Boston Col. 2-6 6-6

ACC Coastal
1. Va. Tech 7-2 10-3
2. N. Carolina 6-2 9-3
3. Miami 6-2 8-4
4. Duke 3-5 4-8
5. Ga. Tech 1-7 3-9
6. Virginia 0-8 2-10

Big East
1. W. Virginia 6-1 10-2
2. S. Florida 6-1 11-1
3. Cincinnati 4-3 9-4
4. Rutgers 4-3 7-5
5. Pitt 3-4 7-5
6. Louisville 3-4 8-4
7. UConn 2-5 6-6
8. Syracuse 0-7 2-10

Mountain West
1. Utah 7-1 10-2
2, BYU 7-1 11-1
3. TCU 5-3 8-4
4. Wyoming 4-4 5-7
5. UNLV 4-4 6-6
6. S.D. State 3-5 5-7
7. Air Force 2-6 5-7
8. New Mex. 2-6 3-9
9. Col. St. 1-7 2-10

Conf. USA West
1. Tulsa 8-1 12-1
2. SMU 5-3 6-6
3. UTEP 4-4 6-6
4. Houston 3-5 6-6
5. Tulane 2-6 4-8
6. Rice 2-6 4-8

Conf. USA East
1. C. Florida* 7-2 8-5
2. E. Carolina 5-3 7-5
3. Marshall 5-3 6-6
4. Memphis 3-5 5-7
5. So. Miss 2-6 3-9
6. UA-Birm. 2-6 3-9

WAC
1. Boise St. 8-0 11-1
2. Fresno St. 6-2 9-3
3. Hawaii 5-3 7-6
4. Nevada 5-3 7-5
5. San Jose St. 4-4 6-6
6. NMSU 3-5 5-7
7. La. Tech 2-6 3-9
8. Idaho 2-6 3-9
9. Utah State 1-7 1-11

Independents
1. Notre Dame 7-5
2. Navy 5-7
3. Army 3-9
4. W. Kentucky 2-10

MAC West
1. C. Mich.* 7-1 10-3
2. W. Mich. 5-3 8-4
3. No. Ill. 5-3 6-6
4. Ball State 4-4 7-5
5. E. Mich. 2-6 3-9
6. Toledo 1-7 2-10

MAC East
1. Bowl Grn. 7-1 9-4
2. Temple 5-3 7-5
3. Miami 4-4 6-6
4. Kent St. 4-4 5-7
5. Buffalo 3-5 5-7
6. Ohio 2-6 3-9
7. Akron 2-6 2-10

Sun Belt
1. Fla. Atl. 7-0 10-2
2. Troy 6-1 8-4
3. UL-Monroe 4-3 5-7
4. N. Texas 3-4 3-9
5. UL-Laff. 3-4 3-9
6. Ark. State 3-4 5-7
7. M. Tenn. 2-5 2-10
8. Fla. Int’l 1-6 2-10

Faceoff

By Nate Sandstrom and Mark Goldman

This week's guest questioner dude is Will Pharr, brother in law of blogmaster Mark, devoted Skins fan, golf enthusiast, connoisseur of fine beer, and father of one jiggy little boy, who so far is the Goldman's best shot at a future generation of football fandom.


Q: The 'Skins' late-season run to the playoffs last year was incredibly exciting, but in reality highly unexpected. With QB Jason Campbell entering his fourth pro season and new head coach Jim Zorn running the show where do you see this team going? As a lifelong Washington fan I don't know how many more of these mediocre seasons I can handle.


Mark says: Wah Wah Wah. Mediocre seasons? You've been to the playoffs two of the past three seasons and notched a win in one of those. OK, it was against Tampa, everyone's favorite first-round whipping boy, but still. Sorry, I'm venting. But seriously, until you get an elite QB, you're stuck with mediocrity or worse in this league. I don't buy that Campbell is that guy. And it sure doesn't help that he's getting the 3rd offensive coordinator in his tenure. I think he's quality, but I don't ever see him being a super QB.

As for the rest of the team, it's got lots of depth and quality at every position. I don't know what position I'd say is a glaring weakness. That's a rare thing. The problem is you're in a pretty strong division. And like I said in last week's Faceoff, it's going to be hard to send three teams from one division to the playoffs in back-to-back years. You can write off the Giants — they're in for a big letdown and I think the Cowboys are the top dog of the division. So you and the Eagles are fighting the rest of the conference's understudies for that wild card spot. But, hey, the Giants won last year. So who the hell knows.

Nate says: OK, a little bit of the Redskins' luster has been taken off by the 34-0 hole the starters dug themselves into during the first half on Saturday. Carolina completely dominated the OL and Campbell looked like a lost, scared kitten:




But let's just write that off as a game where everything went wrong. Even last year's Super Bowl Champion Giants gave up more than 80 points at home in their first two games. The 'skins built depth at their one hole, the receiving corps, in the offseason. The secondary is not great, but the Jason Taylor injury turned out not to be so bad and the front seven will apply pressure. Zorn seems to be focusing on making the offense work for the players rather than making the players work for the offense. This team is definitely capable of 11 wins.

Q: The Minnesota Vikings seem to be this year's sexy pick to come out of the NFC. Adrian Peterson is the man and their defense is ridiculous; but I saw Tavaris Jackson quarterback the team a few times and he didn't seem efficient enough to run the Mt. Hebron Vikings' offense, let alone the Minnesota Vikings. What do his supporters see in this kid?

Nate says:

I expect the Minnesota Vikings to win more games this year than the Mount Hebron Vikings, and probably anyone in the NFC North, but not because of anything Tavaris Jackson does. In fact, I expect that Gus Frerotte will start at least four games this year.

Still, Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor rushed for over 5 ypc last year. Even though Peterson's average dropped to just 3.8 in December, Taylor increased his to 7 ypc. I expect the Vikings defense to be as strong as ever, and lead the team to a division title.

Still, I say the Eagles or Saints may be better choices as darkhorses to win the NFC than the Vikings because of the quarterback situation. But I think we all have to be honest and say the NFC is the Cowboys' to lose.

Mark says:

Well, if this is your idea of sexy, then yes, the Vikings are red hot. Forget Tavaris Jackson for a moment. Look for Adrian Peterson to suffer a sophomore letdown.

In the last 30 years, 42 RB's have gone for 1,000 yards as a rookie. Only 14 of those topped their yardage total the next year. Just 11 scored more TDs and nine averaged more YPC. Plus, don't forget that Peterson is injury prone. They do have Chester Taylor to fall back on, but where is Tavaris expected to throw the ball. You're right. The Vikings are sexy and that's why I'm not calling for them to win the division. I look east to Green Bay and I see a more complete team. They're questionable at the QB position, but I like the Packers to rally and win the division. They've let the Favre weight go and the Vikes still have to live with the weight of being this year's sexy pick. Things can fall apart very quickly for teams like this. We're going to be posting our season's predictions here at Sobo soon, but look for the Vikes to end up around 8-8 again.

Q: Do you see Florida QB Tim Tebow repeating as the Heisman Trophy Award winner in his upcoming junior season? What are your thoughts on other contenders?

Nate says:

I think Tebow is certainly the favorite (He's about 3-1 at gamblerspalace.com) this year. His surrounding offense should be even better than last season, when he ran for 23 TDs and passed for 32 more. The schedule also is more favorable as the Gators draw LSU at home and won't face Auburn unless they meet in an SEC Title Game. #5 Florida should also be in the Top 5 for most of the year, so Tebow will have plenty of exposure. However, as the QB gets praise in victory he often takes blame in defeat, and if the Gators were upset on the brink of a national title game, say Nov. 15 at South Carolina, he could take the fall.

The guy besides Tebow most likely to put up gaudy numbers is Texas Tech sophomore WR Michael Crabtree (17 to 2 odds). Last year, he caught 134 passes for 1,962 yards and 22 TDs! He could produce even bigger stats this year as 10 starters, including all 5 OL and QB Graham Harrell. The #14 Red Raiders should be undefeated when they head to Kansas on Oct. 25, followed by a home tilt with Texas on Nov. 1 and a trip to Norman the weekend before Thanksgiving. What happens in that stretch will determine his fate, and I think ultimately he and Tech will come up short.

The guy I like most to win this award is junior Ohio State RB Chris "Beanie" Wells (11 to 2 odds). Wells' speed and vision will give him a highlight reel that no other player will match in breadth and scope. Add to that the fact I expect #3 Ohio State to earn a bid to the National Championship again, and I will place my wager on Wells.

Looking for a dark horse? What about Clemson QB Cullen Harper? As a junior he posted a gaudy 27-6 TD/INT ration and the #9 Tigers toughest game prior to the ACC Championship and bowl game is probably at Wake Forest. Clemson seems to perennially underachieve, but if Coach Boweden got Clemson to a national title game then Harper would certainly get a look.

If you want more Heisman chatter, you should check out Heisman Pundit, who agrees with me in picking Wells to win this year's award.


Mark says:

As a Ravens fan, I have much interest in this question as I am already scouting the colleges for next year's #1 pick. Then again, take our Heisman winner, please!

But if I had a vote, I'd cast it right now for this Crabtree from TT that Nate mentioned based on his last year's stats alone. Damn, those are crazy numbers. But Nate's probably right and I have a hard time seeing someone from Texas Tech pulling out the Heisman. I also really like Cullen Harper out of Clemson.

I also like Pat White out of West Virginia to garner some of the votes. But it's tough to say now that Rich Rodriguez is in Michigan and Steve Slaton is in Houston. Will White be able to step up and make this his offense? We'll see.

Finally, look for the customary USC nod in QB Mark Sanchez. This team has put out three of the past six national champs.

Lockdown — Preseason Edition

By Nate Sandstrom

Time for the year's first lockdown pick. I know it's only preseason, but even we here at SoBo Football must get a tune-up. And what better weekend to pick than this one, when most teams play starters for a full half or more.

On the count of going through all the nuptials this month, I haven't watched much preseason football. So I'm going to pick the game involving the team I have really watched, the Washington Redskins.

Wahington (+3) at Carolina

The 'Skins (3-0) have been sharp thus far in the preseason and I expect more of the same. I'll give you more of a breakdown this evening, 'cause I got to head to my real job.

**Saturday a.m. update.

This is the 'Skins full dress rehearsal and I look for big things. Malcolm Kelly should explode on the scene in his first preseason game. Campbell seems really high on him. He's also really high on Cooley and we've seen him pile up stats.

Meanwhile, who is Carolina going to throw the ball to?

Prediction: Washington 20 Carolina 16

P.S. Watch this week for our announcement of the SoBo Lockdown Challenge, which will allow you to win a cool prize, like your favorite NFL team hat.

Faceoff: AFC South

By Nate Sandstrom and Mark Goldman

Last year, the AFC South was one of two divisions in football to have each team finish .500 or better and send three teams to the playoffs. This year, the reward for last season's success is that they face the second-, third-, eighth- and tenth-most difficult schedules; however, each team returns most of their core players.

This week, our special guest is Zack Sopradi, a Madden addict who is an Indiana-born, lifelong Colts fan (sorry if "Indiana-born, lifelong Colts fan" phrase bothers you Baltimore). Zack has the following questions about this year's AFC South race:

1) Can the AFC South send three teams to the playoffs again?

Nate says:

There is certainly enough talent in this division for its team to claim both wild card spots. But as mentioned above the difficult schedule (including six games against each other, four against the NFC North, four against AFC North) will be an obstacle.

The Colts will probably be the Colts and win the division but I can see them losing 5-6 games this year. In Jacksonville, Jerry Porter will not provide the spark in the passing game needs. I was high on rookie DE Quentin Groves before the draft but he struggled in his first start, while first-round pick DE Derrick Harvey has yet to sign. I expect them to be in the range of 7 to 9 wins.

I think the Titans defense will be even better, but I don't expect much improvement from the offense, so I expect a 9-7 finish like last year. I love the Texans as an under-the-radar team this year, who can win 10 games if Andre Johnson stays healthy all year; though they still have run game issues. It will be interesting to see what rookie RB Steve Slaton does after a disappointing senior season.

So will the south send three teams to AFC playoffs this year? Probably not, but if teams like Buffalo, Denver, etc. — who were in a tier below last year — don't catch up then maybe.


Mark says:

Yo-Yo Mr. S! I don’t want to say yes because it seems highly implausible for that to happen in back to back seasons bro, but I look around the AFC and don’t know who is going to step up. If you assume the Colts, Chargers, Pats and Steelers win their divisions, (Sorry, Browns fans, but Mark's not a believer yet) then who takes the wild card spots? Not the Raiders, Chiefs, Dolphins or Ravens (that makes up for it, Browns fans. Wait, do we have Browns fans reading this blog?) That leaves just the Bengals, Browns, Jets, and Broncos and maybe the Bills to push the South for these spots. Now, I don’t think the South’s schedule is that hard considering they get the AFC North, which I believe to be the weakest in the conference. OK, I’ve convinced myself. The answer is indubitably yes.


2) How healthy will Marvin Harrison be this year and how much does his presence on the field matter to the Colts playoff run?

Mark says:

Yo-Yo Mr. S, it's going to be bad. Harrison will be 50 percent healthy and he'll miss exactly five games. What Nate seems to forget is the answer to question #1! This division is no longer the lock for the Colts it once was. They need to be full throttle this year. Seriously, Harrison will probably be fine, but if his knee swells up in week 9 and he has to get it drained and miss 3 weeks, you'd better pray that no other receivers are already down.

Nate says:

I think Harrison will start at least 14 games this year and be a presence. But even if he isn't healthy remember this: Harrison caught 20 passes last year and Indy still managed to finish 13-3. I also look for WR Anthony Gonzalez, he scored 4 TD in the last six games last year, to show improvement.


3) Who will end the season as the Houston Texans starting quarterback?

Nate says:

I think that Sage Rosenfels (disclosure: Iowa State bias) deserves a chance to be a starting quarterback in the NFL, unfortunately for him the only way it happens in Houston is if Matt Schaub gets hurt.

I like Matt Schaub and think he still may turn out to have an OK career. So far this preaseason he is the most accurate passer with 20+ attempts. But consider some of these stats:

• Rosenfels threw 15 TD in seven games last year, trailing only Brady and Romo in TD/gm.
• Over the last two years he's completed 25-31 in the red zone for 14 TD vs. 1 INT.
• He's the anti-David Carr. He's been sacked just 6 times in his last 246 passing plays.

After Houston's investment in Schaub, I know that he will start. And the question is who WILL END THE YEAR as the Texans starting QB, not who SHOULD START IT. Still, my answer to both is Sage. I'll predict Schaub goes down by Week 9 and Rosenfels plays well enough not to lose the job when Schaub is back.

Mark says:

Snap Nate, not even Brett Favre will be missed in GB the way Schaub was missed in Atlanta last year. And while he went on to yawn his way into the hearts of many a Texans fan with his average play, it was his first season in a new system and he'd only been a two-game starter prior to that, dude. I believe with more time to gel with the team, Schaub will show that he is the guy they should have traded for. It takes time to get the right QB in the right place and it is way too early to give up on this one.

As for Rosenfels, sure his numbers slightly edged out Schaub, but this is a factor of what I like to call backup QB inflation. Take Rosenfels's numbers of 15 TDs and 12 INTs (which, mind you, lead to a lower QB rating than Schaub had). If you take these numbers and adjust them for backup QB inflation, you do not get a 40 TD, 27 INT season. I know you can't take any player's numbers from 5 games and extrapolate them out to a full season. However my man, it is especially true for backup QBs, who usually show flashes of potential in spot duy that mysteriously disappear when you remove the term 'backup'.

Up Close and Personal

By Mark Goldman

"Probably to a shark, about the funniest thing is a wounded seal, trying to swim to shore, because where does he think he's going?" - Deep Thoughts by Jack Handy

Watching the way the fans treated Kyle Boller last night reminds me of this curious quote by Jack Handy. I attended the debacle that was Preseason Game #2 against the Vikings and I had pretty good seats up close to the field. In case you missed it, the Ravens successfully stymied the ground attack of the Vikings but their wounded secondary was shredded by Tavaris Jackson and Gus Frerotte. But, as has been the case for as long as I can remember, I don't bother wasting time evaluating the defense. It's going to get the job done in the long run most likely. As usual, the attention was on our offense.

Last night was supposed to be the moment for Troy Smith to seize. He was supposed to stand up and grab the starting job from Kyle Boller's clutch. Instead, rookie Ray Rice was the show stealer. He had a performance that included a 42 yard run on his first carry, a 6 yard TD carry, and 77 yards on 8 attempts. Great for Troy Smith, right? On his big night, he had a ground game going that would set him up for success. And how did he perform? He started the entire first half and completed 3 of 5 for 25 yards and a pick. He ran for 35 - ten yards more than he passed for. Too bad we're not looking for a running back, Troy! It isn't the stats that disappoint me; it is was his inability to make a stand and step up and throw the ball. He had his share of passing plays called, but he only threw the ball 5 times. There must have been a dozen passing plays called and he threw on 5 of them, choosing instead to try and make a play with his feet. Troy Smith is quick, but he's not fast and he's not going to be Michael Vick. He's not going to outrun linebackers or carry a team on his feet.

Now, I'm not here to pile on the guy. He's a second year sixth round pick. I don't expect much from him. In fact, I don't ever expect him to be a true starter for the Ravens. Ever. But that doesn't mean I don't like him and want him to stay on the team a while and hope that he does improve. I'm rational. I'm not going to write the guy off. And that brings me to Boller. Well, actually, it brings me to the fans.

Never mind the fan 3 rows back who was screaming for the ref to add 10 seconds back to the clock before Brett finally turned around and said, "It wasn't a dead ball play, buddy!" I'm talking about the ones that sat silent, cheered a little and groaned mildly here and there during the first half when Troy Smith was giving us his scared performance. The fans that sat content during a first half that saw us trailing 20-7 at halftime. These fans came to life in the second half and loudly booed and jeered Boller's just-as-mediocre performance. Boller looked slightly better than Smith. He chose to go for quick, safe passes. But at least he passed - what a quarterback is supposed to do in the NFL. He was 8-12 for 40 yards and an interception. Nothing to cheer about, I'll give you. But he was out there playing with (and against) scrubs. This is the Ravens. We all know the offense is a joke and it doesn't look any better this year. It's going to take time - and playmakers - to make it look like a real offense some day. My point is this - these fans that booed Boller (and I've never been one to really care whether or not you boo your own team, though it takes real tough times for me to do it) aren't booing wisely. They just see Boller and if he isn't playing like Brady - never mind that nobody else on the team is and Brady might not even play like Brady on this team) - he's going to get booed. Maybe they see him as an extension of Billick and in some shape they're still booing the culture of safe, predictable offense that Billick ingrained in the team. But I just don't see how you boo Boller who plays relatively the same (but with the balls to stand up and throw the ball) as Troy Smith and don't boo Smith who played worse and without confidence in his own passing ability despite a good running game to support him.

If you look online in the Baltimore Sun today, you'll see a poll that asks two questions - who WILL be the starter come week 1 and who SHOULD be the starter week 1? The results: Kyle will be the starter 60% - 40% for. Troy SHOULD be the starter by 52% to 48 %.

Side note - I always love polls like this because they're basically "Who thinks they know better than the coaches?" polls.

Now, I ask these 52% that think Troy should be the starter - WHY? What has he shown you? Give me the stats and show me the plays he's made! The truth is, you can't. You can only say, "Well, we've seen the Boller show before." And sure, I get that. But you're wrong. Boller is the better QUARTERBACK! He gives us the better shot to win. So when I hear you booing the better quarterback on a team that isn't going to have a good offense no matter which QB they start, I ask you, you wounded psyche of a fan - where do you think you're going with your booing? Deep thoughts, indeed.

Around the nation's college teams — Part II

By Nate Sandstrom

Alabama Crimson Tide
(7-6 in 2007; 7 returning starters on offense, 6 on defense)
(Predicted SEC West finish — Phil Steele: 3; Athlon: 3; Lindy's: 3; overall average 3)



Nick Saban's first year as Alabama's head coach was a disappointment to many in Tuscaloosa. After a 3-0 start they lost six of the next nine before edging a mediocre Colorado team in the Independence Bowl to get above .500.

Perhaps more disappointing was that the Tide was just a few plays away from playing in a New Year's Day bowl. All six of their losses came by a touchdown or less, including a 41-34 loss to eventual national champ LSU after a costly fumble in the game's final minutes. They were also about to pull ahead of Mississippi State 16-3 before the Bulldogs returned an INT for 100 yards and a 10-9 lead. They eventually won 17-12.

Senior QB John Parker Wilson (pictured above) is hoping to clean up the turnover problems and turn some of those close losses into wins this year. Wilson has thrown for more than 5,500 yards the last two seasons and is looking forward to working with the nation's top wide receiver recruit, Julio Jones (see highlight reel at left). Of course the bad news is that Jones has to step in for departed DJ Hall, who topped 1,000 yards receiving the past two years.

Alabama will also hope to have a 1,000-yard rusher in sophomore Terry Grant. Grant ran for 891 yards last season before missing the loss at Auburn and the bowl game because of a hip injury. Saban says that he has looked good in camp thus far. Grant will also be running behind an offensive line that returns four starters and the tight end.

The Tide returns six defensive starters on a defense that lacks standouts outside of senior FS Rashad Johnson. Sophomore Rolando McClain will be back in the linebacking corps after a freshman season that saw him make 75 tackles and intercept two passes. Expect improvement this year, and a greater leadership role.

However, it will likely be the defense and road games at Georgia, Tennessee and LSU that keeps this team in the middle of the pack in the SEC West, behind Auburn and LSU.

Faceoff — Fantasy football edition

By Nate Sandtrom and Mark Goldman

Hello everyone and welcome to the first edition of the weekly "Faceoff" between Nate and Mark. Each week, a special guest will ask them three football-related questions and debate shall ensue.

Nate is 10 year vet of fantasy football who boasts 4 championships and regularly participates in multiple leagues per year. He’s a Wikipedia of sports statistics and when he doesn’t know for sure, he’s great at making up an answer and sticking to it.

Mark is an avid non-fantasy participant who regularly mocks fantasy ballers with such taunts as “Fantasize this!” and “I drafted your mom.” But because he’s more of a know-it-all than a man of his convictions, he’s glad to answer questions on a subject of which he has no authority.

This week's guest questioner is Paul Bangle, coach of defending Maryland 1A/2A boys golf champion Liberty High School. Bangle's not only adept at taking on the links, he has a few Fantasy Football titles to his name as well. Here are the topics he's thinking about as Fantasy Football draft dates approach:

Q: Who are your top 3 defensive team choices?

Nate's answer:

Team defenses are always hard to predict fantasy-wise. Takeaways can fluctuate greatly from year-to-year, and two injured players can turn some defenses upside down.

One of the first things I look at is strength of schedule, and that makes the New England Patriots and San Diego Chargers the two best-bet fantasy defenses this year. Both teams' schedules feature opponents a combined 40 games or more below .500 in 2007.

In addition both the Patriots and Chargers have offenses that will rarely go three and out, thus winning the field position war and limiting scoring chances.

The defenses aren't too shabby production-wise either. The Bolts led the league with 48 takeaways, were fifth in sacks and second in scores.

The Pats meanwhile have finished in the top 10 fantasy defenses six of the past seven years, according to Fantasy Football Index. They are aging and the secondary lacks depth, but the soft schedule will break in their favor.

The Minnesota Vikings, who've scored 15 defensive TD's the past two season are probably the choice for #3, especially with the addition of DE Jared Allen.

I'd also like to throw in a sleeper in the Seattle Seahawks. They get to play six against the NFC West and four against the AFC East. At Qwest Field they held half their opponents without a TD; although they had their down moments on the road, including allowing 33 in a loss at Cleveland. Rookie DE Lawrence Jackson adds much raw talent to the D-line.

Mark's answer:

Surprise surprise – I’m going Ravens. They were horrible last year. For two reasons – the loss of Trevor Pryce and the loss of Samari Rolle/Chris McAlister. The season prior the Ravens had 60 sacks, 21 picks and were +17 in turnover ratio. They were hands down fantasy gold. Last year, when the train derailed it was all because the secondary was nonexistent. This year, the Ravens picked up Frank Walker and Fabian Washington as backups. I expect Washington, a former first round pick from only 3 years ago, to supplant Rolle. This year’s Ravens will be a lot closer to the 2006 unit than last year’s mess.

Second – and this is in no particular order – I’m going Skins (we don’t have editors here at Sobo, so don’t accuse me of trying to boost local readership). The addition of Jason Taylor to an already stout unit is a coup. I expect this to be a 45-sack team. Combine that with a tight secondary (note the common denominator: both Skins and Ravens have a Landry at Safety – Dawan for the Ravens and LaRon on the Skins) and you can expect more turnovers caused by pressure to dump the ball off. Sure, they’ve got a tough schedule as the Natrix points out, but who knows how that will shake out?

Finally, I’m going to go with the Jaguars. They were a 37-sack team last year before they made it a priority this year in the draft to get more pass rushers. They’ve clearly made a decision that they are going to attack on defense. But they have the players in the secondary to back that up. They had 20 picks last year and their opponents had only 27 minutes time of possession, so that will limit the scoring chances. You may want to have a decent back up (may I suggest Green Bay) lined up for the weeks the Jags face the Colts.


Q: Which rookie is most likely to break through as a fantasy stud this season?

Nate's answer:

The answer is probably whichever rookie running back gets the ball the most, especially in end zone situations. I'll predict that will be Detroit Lions RB Kevin Smith, who may have supplanted Tatum Bell as the starter.

Smith was a beast at Central Florida last year, rushing for more than 2,500 yards and 30 TD, including 149 and 2 TD's in a near upset of Texas.

Mark's answer:

I like Rashard Mendenhall. He’s a prototypical NFL running back drafted into a town that historically likes to run the ball. What I like is that the team already has Willie Parker to move the ball. The fact that they added Mendenhall tells you they’re looking for someone to pound it in (even though Parker has a nose for the end zone). Rookie #2 running backs can blow up in your face if you count on them to carry your team, but as a late round pick, this has a high potential.

Q: Who is this year's flop player at QB, WR, and RB?

Nate's answer:

Many people attributed Ben Roethlisberger's re-emergence last year to being a year removed from his motorcycle accident. I attribute it more to a soft schedule that the Steelers won't face this year.

Want another fun stat (from Fantasy Football Index)? He's been sacked once every 10.4 pass plays the past two years — more than David Carr!

Is Larry Johnson ranked high enough to be considered a bust? I'll bet he'll go in the top two rounds in many leagues, so I think he would qualify. After the retirement of Willie Roaf and Will Shields, his production dropped severely from 2006 to 2007. He lost yards one out of every six carries, worst in the league. And don't expect the Chiefs' passing game to keep teams on their heels.

Braylon Edwards will probably have a good year, and I was going to say him even before the whole barefoot incident. However, he will not go for 1,289 yards and 16 TDs again. Like other AFC North teams, the Browns have a brutal schedule. I also just feel like last year was one of those seasons where everything went right for Cleveland, and that rarely happens in back-to-back campaigns.

Mark’s Answer:

QB: Tony Romo – his decline in the second half of the season is not just the wishful thinking of haters. This is still the guy that threw 5 picks against the Bills last year. Lord help him if TO goes down. Odds are he’ll have a good year, but there’s a good chance he comes down to earth as defenses catch up to him and his own wing-it style gets him in trouble.

RB: Willis McGahee – if you’re not a follower of the Ravens and you just look at a fantasy guide, you’ll see a guy that ran for 1200 yards and had some TDs, a solid 2nd RB. But he’s barely been in training camp, didn’t attend off season OTA’s, and just had his knee scoped (a decision he made without consulting the team). All the reports in Baltimore media point to a spoiled princess who doesn’t have the desire to play.

WR: Steve Smith – he’s going to miss the first two games of the season thanks to a fight with his teammate. Plus, he doesn’t have much to expect from his QB. His head clearly isn’t in the right place and you have to wonder how he’ll react when he only gets one catch in week 5.

Going around the nation's college teams — Part I

By Nate Sandstrom

Most years I have my college season picks basically done by the end of the July. But due to my recent marriage I'm a little behind on getting caught up on my college previews. As I go through them over the next three weeks in the run-up to the season, I'll try to give you a sense of where all I-A teams are stacking up with the prognosticators, starting with Air Force tonight with more to follow the rest of the week. Go to Stassen if you want an easy-to-read chart of who's picking who where.

Publication abbreviations for this series:
PS: Phil Steele
ATH: Athlon
LN: Lindy's

Air Force Falcons
(9-4 in 2007; 3 returning starters on offense, 5 on defense)
(Predicted MWC finish — PS: 7; ATH: 6; LN: 6; overall average 6)



New Head Coach Troy Calhoun (above) got the Falcons off to a quick start last year after Air Force pulled upsets against Utah and TCU on their way to a 3-0 start. They struggled for a stretch afterward, but finished strong at 9-4 with a near upset of Cal in the Armed Forces Bowl.

The consensus seems to be that Air Force is unlikely to match last year's win total. They lose more than half their lettermen, their top six rushers, top two receivers, their QB and four of their top five tacklers.

Three freshman made the two-deep depth chart, and it looks like inexperienced senior Shea Smith will take over behind center.

The one area that could be a strength is the DL, where all three starters return to lead a rush defense that finished in the middle of the MWC with 3.45 ypc. But it looks like Coach Calhoun will have to work some magic to bring Air Force back to a bowl game.

Federal rule change results in chaos for fans used to taking the bus to FedEx

By Nate Sandstrom

For those traveling to FedEx Field this year, they no longer have the buses that run from the Landover Metro to the stadium for $6. The MTA bus service to Ravens games (and apparently many other teams) is also affected as new federal guidelines now prohibit government agencies (like Metro, the Maryland Transit Administration) from offering the service when private companies also to do so.

I'm trying to find a news article that explains this all, but I remember reading about it early this spring. My recollection is that private companies argued that it was unfair that public entities were subsidizing the cost of transporting people to stadiums and made it impossible for them offer competitive rates.

Sounds fair enough, but here's the net effect: The Redskins said in a press release they looked into offering the service through a private company and the $6 fee would increase to $20. The 'Skins decided not to bother at that point. I'm not sure what the Ravens are doing.

So now you either have to start driving — further clogging the roads, spewing more CO2 in the air and burning more gasoline — or take the Metro Blue Line to the Morgan Boulevard station and walk (that's what I did).

Last night, for a preseason game, the trains were packed, kids were crying and there was much confusion. I guarantee this will be a disaster on Sept. 14.

Some helpful tips from my experience:

• Leave early.

• It took about 20 minutes to walk to the stadium once I reached the stop; it could've been quicker but the sidewalks are not built to handle the amount of foot traffic the games draw.

• Some guys were trying to sell water for like $4 a bottle right outside the stop, but there are many people selling for $1 a bottle along the way. No one was selling food, but one couple was selling Bud and Bud Light from their front yard for $3 each or two for $5. Don't know how long 'til police shut that down.

• If you go from New Carrollton, use the bathroom there. You won't see one again until the Port-A-Potties outside the stadium.

24-0 anyone?

By Nate Sandstrom

You can usually count me among the skeptical end of Redskins fans, but I'm very optimistic about this year. Although most NFL prognosticators are picking the 'Skins to finish last in the NFC East, (their Vegas over/under win total is 7.5) I'm optimistic they will be in the race for the division title in December.

Yes, there's a new HC, OC and DC and new systems. But player continuity counts in this league (sorry Jets), and nearly everyone is back from last year's playoff team. I'll get more into actual predictions later this month, but after being at Fed Ex Field for the preseason home opener last night (a 17-14 win), let me tell you what I'm most excited about:

• Jason Taylor will have offensive lines worried. Buffalo was flagged twice for false starts early in the game yesterday, including on a third-and-long when the prospect of blocking Taylor and Marcus Washington had the Bills right side spooked.

• Jason Campbell has completed 80 percent of his passes in the first two preseason games. Although many people are worried about Campbell learning a new offense, it's about the eighth time he's done it in nine years so he considers it part of training camp. With some added size in the receiving corps in Malcolm Kelly teams will also not be able to double Cooley as much and he shut cut down on the turnovers that cost the 'Skins in the red zone so often last year.

I know preseason game don't count for anything, but I'd rather win them then lose. The starters were mostly sharp last night and it was nice to see Ladell Betts back in the end zone. The backups were OK; #4 RB Marcus Mason racked up 80 yards on 16 carries but fumbled the opening kickoff and was stuffed twice on the one-yard-line on a drive that would have put Washington up 24-14.

Despite that, Washington is 2-0 in the preseason; and with just three more preseason victories, a perfect regular season and a Super Bowl title they can be history's first 24-0 team:)

Reurn date

...Preseason coverage begins approximately Aug. 10.

A look at Penn State that doesn't mention Joe Paterno's age, OK maybe a little

There are few college football stories in recent years that are as tired as those questioning JoePa's age. I'm merely mentioning it to say I don't want to talk about if further than this:

Penn State has won 29 games (more than Michigan) the last three years, and were a pass away from playing for a BCS title as recently as 2005.

So what about the '08 Lions? There is an open competition at quarterback and stud recruit Stephfon Green will battle incumbent Evan Royster for the most carries at RB. The receiving corps and offensive line meanwhile are brimming with experience.

On defense, expected team leader and LB Sean Lee is out for the year after injuring himself making a cut in spring practice. This after losing Bednarik Award-winning LB Dan Connor. The secondary should be a huge strength.

Big Ten Network (Ch. 220 on DirectTV) is carrying the Penn State spring game at 11 Eastern tonight. It's also available on the network's Web site. Here's an AP rundown of the game.

The schedule could have been kinder for the Lions. Their first six weeks in the Big 10 PSU goes vs. Illinois, at Purdue, at Wisconsin, vs. Michigan, at Ohio State and at Iowa. That's going to make another 9-win year tough, but if they fall to a lower tier bowl they should dominate their opponent.

Early estimated results: 7-5

Local recruiting note:
Looking to fall 2009, Penn State is one of the schools that have offered Dunbar senior RB Tavon Austin a scholarship. Just a year ago, some local observers were debating whether the 5'9 back could be a D-I recruit, but with offers from programs like West Virginia, Maryland and early chaser B.C., in addition to PSU, I have no doubts. Watch some of these YouTube videos, the kid has moves.

--Nate

Spring games — Hooray!

The Big Ten Network is televising conference schools' spring football games (scrimmages) this week as well as offering them free online. My thoughts from the portion of the Wisconsin game I caught and Badger beat reporters:

QB battles always grab the headlines, and it appears the situation remains unresolved. I was most impressed with Scott Tolzien, who led a nice drive that eventually stalled and resulted in a missed field goal.

The kicking game was inconsistent, as the Badgers search for a replacement for NFL-bound Taylor Mehlhaff. The offense stalled several times in the red zone, including a defensive stop where Lance Smith was stood up on 4th and goal at the 1-yard-line. Ken DeBauche's younger brother, Brad, is replacing him at punter. He got off a nice 45-yarder but also shanked another one.

The running game looked great. Redshirt freshman John Clay, a top-5 RB recruit, racked up nearly 100 yards. Of course he's still behind All-American P.J. Hill as well as Lance Smith and Zach Brown. Hopefully the attack will help all the RBs keep their legs fresh, particularly Hill, who was worse for the ware at the end of his freshman year.

Most of the DL sat out with injuries, although senior DE Matt Shaughnessy's broken leg is not as bad as initially feared.

For those wondering about last year's QB, Tyler Donovan, he signed a CFL contract with Edmonton.

The schedule is favorable for Wisconsin. Ohio State, Illinois and Penn State all come to Madison, where they have lost just one game in four years. They have to go to Ann Arbor, but at least it is in September as the Wolverines adjust to new man Rich Rodriguez running the program. They make a trip to the usually dangerous Fresno State in September, and also have a trip to Iowa sandwiched between the Penn State and Illinois road games. Michigan State also seems to have UW's number; the Spartans host the Badgers on Nov. 1.

Early pre-season estimation: 10-2

--Nate Sandstrom

I'm Back!

I know we still have the Superbowl and the Probowl left, but I must officially be in offseason mode because I'm watching Mr. and Mrs. Smith and somehow enjoying it.

So I figured I'd end my three month hiatus from SoboFo and bring you some of my football thoughts that I'm sure you've been starved for.

1. I raised this question to the guys at work and think it's a good one for Sobo: Who is the worst owner - Dan Snyder or Peter Angelos? I'll start by admitting the answer seems glaringly obvious at first. The Skins are coming off an exciting season driven by emotion from the death of a hot young star not named Heath in which they made it to the postseason. They've been to the postseason twice in the past five seasons and have a jam-packed stadium each week. The team is competitive. However, I would argue that it is far, far more difficult to succeed in baseball than football. Making the playoffs twice in five seasons in the NFL is the equivalent achievement of Brad Pitt landing Angelina Jolie (seriously - give the movie a second shot if you haven't already. It's no Bedazzled, but hey what is?) Being competitive in baseball is hard enough even if you don't play in the AL East. That's more like Vince Vaughn landing Jennifer Aniston. OK, it happens, but let's be realistic - that was a down season for Jennifer. So when you balance out the leagues and prorate the teams' accomplishments this becomes a bit more of a fair fight. Many would argue that aside from the on-field success, Dan Snyder has helped turn the Skins into a Wall Street darling. I would counter that Angelos - as god-awful as he is - at least held MLB to the fire and got a monster of a deal when the Nats moved in. And again, it is much easier to make money in the NFL. But still, I'd give the nod to Snyder in the financial debate. My biggest argument is that the Skins' success is proof that Snyder is just as bad an owner. He finally gets them to be productive and respectable and then he tears them apart. The fact that he is ripping the guts out of the team right now, when the have a solid core and a promising future, is more of a crime than Angelos beating a dead horse by blocking the Bedard trade. Finally, I think it comes down to this - if you switch the teams they own, what happens? If you put Angelos on the Skins, your QB is ... I thought about this for a while and couldn't come up with a good example and this just hit me... it would be Kyle Boller. He would force the GM to trade out of the first round picks (which might not always be bad) and any pick that did sign would miss significant time while Angelos refused to negotiate. If Snyder owned the Orioles, they'd have signed A-Rod and traded for Pedro Martinez this offseason. I think the edge goes to Angelos being worse, but it's a close call.

2. The Ravens offseason! Gold medal. They fired Billick - Brilliant! They didn't get Jason Garrett - score! They hired Harbaugh - Excellent! They picked up Cam Cameron - gnarly! They kept Rex Ryan - perfect! I know some people are microanalyzing these moves and how they came about, but I don't care. I'm happy with the end product. Sure the owner seemed to take a larger presence than would be preferred. But I'm glad he was just smart enough to realize he made a mistake last year with Billick's extension and didn't have too much pride to admit it. Some say that keeping Rex Ryan is a mistake - that there will be too much tension between him and Harbaugh. Bollocks. These are professionals and grown men and they will work together to win.

3. Seahawks. Say what?! OK, well not the team, but a former Greenie. Jeramy Stevens to be precise. The man is a scumbag. Think about what that word really means for a minute. He's a scumbag. If you have a some time, read this article. Even if you think you got the point halfway through it, keep going. You have to read the whole thing to get the full effect.

4. The big game - my breakdown is coming soon. But more importantly - what will I cook? I'm thinking pulled pork bbq.

Sports page run down

Add Jim Fassel, who believed he would have the job by now, to the list of people upset with Dan Snyder, the Washington Post reports.

I thought he was all but written off, but the Baltimore Examiner reports that Steve McNair may QB the Ravens next year.

USA Today looks at Super Bowls that are rematches from the regular season, and finds the winner in the regular season is 1/5 in the Big One.

Hines Ward had his feelings hurt, the Post-Gazette reports.

This chopped AP story reveals that Bill Clinton is supporting the Giants in the Super Bowl, but plays golf with Tom Brady. Imagine the chicks they can get as a team.

One more reason not to watch the Pro Bowl, Brett Favre isn't playing.

Could Drew Rosenhaus have another Willis McGahee sales job? Top CB prospect Jack Ikegwuonu, a junior from Wisconsin, tore his ACL during a workout Tuesday; however, agent Drew Rosenhaus says everything is fine, just like he did with Willis. My heart's still broken he left the Badgers early.

Here's a dose of "I told you so":

He made himself eligible for the draft earlier this month, leaving UW after his junior season, and signed with Rosenhaus on Jan. 5.

Ikegwuonu was pulling a sled, in a drill designed to improve his speed, when the injury occurred.

He exploded out of a start and planted his leg when the knee gave way.

"I blame the agent for telling him to come out, when we told him to stay in," an NFL scout said.

--Nate Sandstrom

Another 180-degree turn for Snyder

Well, the Fassel plan appears to be on hold, according to the Post. Looks like the public outcry had something to do with it, so good job fans.

My guess is they will make another Bill Cowher run and offer him like $8 mil a year to change his mind.

If that fails, I don't know what will happen. Williams has been on hold so long he has no other real options, but my money has him off next year's staff. Fassel also has no other options, so I guess he would accept being choice #2....or 3, 4 or 5.

Despite the clusterbomb this situation is, I'm upbeat that Fassel is on hold. I'm still against trading draft picks for Rex Ryan; then again, it's not like the 'Skins have a coach who will have seen any of the players at the Senior Bowl this weekend.
--Nate Sandstrom

Jim Fassel -- this must be a joke!

Yesterday, I said that there is no chance Gregg Williams is coming back.

Today, the Washington Post's Jason La Canfora cites league sources in laying out the Redskins search with Jim Fassel as the leading candidate.

The Washington Times' Ryan O'Halloran admits he got beat on this, although points to a discussion he had with Fassel on Sunday in which Fassel denied he was a candidate. Perfect.

O'Halloran also makes the same point I did yesterday: that the hiring Fassel likely means Saunders and Williams are out.

I can't figure this out for the life of me, but La Canfora reports that Fassel was apparently the leading candidate for the 'Skins job before Gibbs took it. He instead went on to help manage the Ravens sputtering offense and "develop" Kyle Boller.

As you can tell, I'm not a fan of the move. It seems the only thing that stays the same in Washington is that nothing does.

Check out how popular this idea is with other 'Skins fans.

--Nate Sandstrom

What the hell happened with LT yesterday?

I have yet to hear a satisfactory answer to what happened with LaDainian Tomlinson yesterday.

I haven't seen any news coverage today acknowledge that this was the story at 4 p.m. Eastern yesterday. Fantasy Football Diehards.com confirms my memory:

Tomlinson has been limited to just the first series, but CBS sideline reporter Steve Tasker is reporting LT didn't reinjure the knee he hurt last week. According to Tasker, Tomlinson is being held out due to a "coaching decision."

Sometime between then and now, it has been ruled that Tomlinson was hurt. About all the coverage the San Diego Union Tribune had on it was this column and the game story, which didn't shed much light on what happened.

This Newsday story breaks down the narrative a little more, but still no real answers:

Of all the injured Chargers, LaDainian Tomlinson was the one most likely to play. Philip Rivers, with stretched Silly Putty ligaments in his right knee that likely will require surgery, and Antonio Gates, with a dislocated toe, managed to perform in the biggest game of the year. But Tomlinson sat on the bench huddled in a parka, watching the AFC Championship Game through his trademark tinted visor.

"There were some remarkable efforts," Chargers coach Norv Turner said of his battered team, raving about Rivers' toughness but refusing to call out Tomlinson, who started and took the first two handoffs but did not appear after the team's second offensive series.

"LT tried to go, and he just couldn't go," Turner said. At one point, it was reported that he had "soreness" in his knee and "could return," and a sideline report called the former MVP's being on the sideline a coach's decision. But after the game, Turner defended Tomlinson by saying: "The guy was not able to go. The doctors and trainers said he couldn't go."

Tomlinson hyperextended his left knee early in last week's upset of the Colts, but after an MRI, he practiced Thursday and Friday and was not included in Friday's injury report. But when he caught a swing pass from Rivers for 1 yard on the second possession, he said he sensed he had lost his explosiveness and felt "helpless." Tomlinson also said he tweaked the knee on his 3-yard run to open the game and that he has a sprained MCL.

"From getting it reinjured the first play, I just knew I didn't have it," he said. "I'm kind of at a loss for words."

Not exactly the stuff of Kirk Gibson. I'm not a doctor, but Norv and LT's quotes seem a little bizarre. Did he even get any treatment to his injury?

I'm not satisfied with the answers presented here. I hope someone keeps picking at what's behind this.

--Nate Sandstrom

So much for continuity

When Joe Gibbs stepped down earlier this month, Dan Snyder talked about continuity. At this point, it's hard to believe the Redskins team that takes the field on Opening Day 2008 will resemble the team that had a 4th quarter lead in Seattle in the playoffs.

I'm pretty sure if the 'Skins wanted assistant head coach-defense Gregg Williams to be the new head coach, they wouldn't bring him in for four FOUR interviews. As this Washington Times article points out, it's not Gregg Williams holding things up.

It's clear there some reason Snyder doesn't want to hire Williams — and I predict he won't.

Whoever comes in will bring a new staff, and with tge cap issues will get rid of Jansen, Springs, Washington, Griffin and more. It will be another year of a new system and new players. People can talk about Campbell "showing progress" and some of his picks will be chalked up to learning a new system. My early call for next season is 6-10.

Some may say "so what." This team barely made the playoffs and aren't close to being a winner.

I disagree. They are close to winning the weak NFC, which I would consider an accomplishment. I don't know that anyone else will catch the Pats/Chargers/Colts in the next two years, so making the Super Bowl would be good enough to me.

If it were my choice, I'd cut Lloyd, restructure a couple deals and leave pretty much everything else in tact. Let Saunders run the offense and Williams run the defense. Of course maybe Williams is not OK with that, and that's why he's not being hired.

Of course it's all speculation as usual because there's been few straight answers coming out of Redskins Park lately.

--Nate Sandstrom

A shocking result?

It's almost 10 Eastern on Thursday, and before all the media heads release their weekend picks, the Chargers are almost universally 14-point underdogs after opening +14.5. (New England has covered just one of their last seven.)

I think you have to like New England in this match-up, especially given the injury situation (for official NFL reports click here).

The Union-Tribune collects some of the most inflammatory dismissals of the Chargers. Says Charean Williams of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram:

“ . . . The Patriots did their part, but the Colts choked. So instead of the best rivalry in sports, we get Chargers-Patriots. Sorry, Chargers, but nobody outside of San Diego is excited by this.

“The Chargers are denying us a great game.”

But the Chargers haven't won eight games in a row by fluke. They take away the ball more than anyone, even if the Pats give it away the least.

Another question is whether Moss will be distracted by the off-the-field fiasco of this week. I doubt it, but he's never been known for an even temperment.

Ultimately, I think the Chargers need to follow the Ravens' game plan against the Pats. Tomlinson/Turner can definitely run the ball as McGahee did. And the Chargers front 7 should be able to blitz. Call me Captain Obvious, but Brady doesn't like to get hit. And if you don't give Brady time to work, Welker, Watson, Moss and crew will have a harder time finding a way to get open.

In the end, I'm sure the Patriots will win, even if takes Brady or a Patriots receiver calling for an undeserved flag and getting it (see aforementioned Ravens game). I'm not calling it the NBA, but the more revered players tend to get the benefit of the doubt.

Pick: New England 31 San Diego 28

--Nate Sandstrom

Return of SoBo football

Well, I've been on a six week hiatus, but I'm hoping I can get Mark back here and start to build a few new common features over the off-season.

We'll spend much of the time looking ahead to the 2008 draft class, new recruits, players returning from injuries and talk schedules and possibilities.


I'm going to post a round-up of what's out there on the conference championships Friday and Saturday, but if you're a fan of any of the other 28 teams I'm moving with you in moving on.

Of course, we'll keep updating what to watch and the video clip bar (hopefully) every day or two.

Here's hoping I can comeback like Little Mac!

--Nate

Week 14 power ratings

NFL Power Ratings — Week 14

1. New England (12-0) — Everyone needs a little luck.
2. Indianapolis (10-2) — Pretty much wrapped up division.
3. Dallas (11-1) — I guess I have to stop saying they are over-rated.
4. Pittsburgh (9-3) — Don't make guarantees you can't keep.
5. Green Bay (10-2) — Glad there isn't a BCS in NFL, or Dallas game might have really mattered.
6. San Diego (7-5) — This weekend is homecoming for Philip Rivers, think he'll be welcome?
7. Seattle (8-4) — Wildly inconsistent teams wins a big one.
8. Jacksonville (8-4) — Colts don't want to face this team a third time.
9. Minnesota (6-6) — Playing some of the best ball in the league the last three weeks.
10. Cleveland (7-5) — After A-Pete, Joe Thomas is ROY.
11. Tampa Bay (8-4) — If you give them the opportunity, they'll take it.
12. Tennessee (7-5) — Off the slide, but Chargers next.
13. Buffalo (6-6) — No-name defense doing the job.
14. N.Y. Giants (8-4) — Meltdown is spelled G-I-A-N-T-S.
15. Arizona (6-6) — A few bounces from being 9-3, but were swept by Niners.
16. Houston (5-7) — I guess they can lose with Andre Johnson
17. New Orleans (5-7) — Tampa loss was costly.
18. Philadelphia (5-7) — Please trade McNabb. I'm sure Feely is the answer. Ha!
19. Washington (5-7) — 5-11 more likely than 9-7.
20. Chicago (5-7) — Remember when Bears fans criticized management for drafting Devin Hester. I do.
21. Denver (5-7) — I should have seen this coming.
22. St. Louis (3-9) — Now if only they had their best five linemen back.
23. Detroit (6-6) — Tough to get to 10 wins now.
24. Oakland (4-8) — Defense is improving.
25. Carolina (5-7) — Talk about a team that needs a QB.
26. Cincinnati (4-8) — Biggest disappointment in NFL.
27. N.Y. Jets (3-9) — Could win their way out of a higher draft pick.
28. Baltimore (4-8) — How do they build off a game like they had? Complain about the refs.
29. Kansas City (4-8) — This ship is sinking fast.
30. Atlanta (3-9) — They still may win more games than I predicted
31. San Francisco (3-9) — Thankful for the Cardinals.
32. Miami (0-12) — If they didn't beat the Jets at home, who will they beat. Maybe Ravens.

--Nate Sandstrom

Heisman Watch Final

I can't remember a year when I had less of an opinion on who should win the Heisman (other than not Matt Ryan).

The final Heisman Pundit poll gives it to Tim Tebow, barely over Darren McFadden. At ESPN, the poll also goes to Tebow, although Ivan Maisel gives it to Dennis Dixon. Tebow also leads at USA Today and the New York Times.

It looks like Tebow will win, and it's hard for me to argue against a guy who accounted for 51 touchdowns in 12 games. That was on a schedule that featured 8 bowl teams, and another, in Troy, that could've been.

But people say it's wide open for a reason.

Here's a look at the other contenders.
Quarterbacks:
• Sam Bradford, Fr., Oklahoma
For: Nation's leader in pass efficiency, we saw what OU looked like without him
Against: 8-19, 2 picks in loss to Colorado
• Tim Tebow, Soph., Florida
For: 51 TDs, more than 3,000 passing, 750 rushing
Against: three-loss team; what was his defining win? South Carolina? Tennessee in Sept.?
• Colt Brennan, Sr., Florida
For: Gaudy numbers, nearly 4,200 passing with 38 TDs, led game-winning drives
Against: Those game-winning drives were against SJSU, Washington
• Dennis Dixon, Sr., Oregon
For: Led nation's best offense until he blew out his knee against Arizona, 161.2 passer rating
Against: Missed last three games as Ducks slid from BCS to Sun Bowl
• Patrick White, Sr.,West Virginia
For: One of the nation's best dual threats; led explosive offense
Against: Is he Dennis Dixon with worse numbers against worst competition?; loss to Pitt

Next Tier: Todd Reesing, Chase Daniels, Cullen Harper, Graham Harrell, Andre Woodson

Running Backs:
• Kevin Smith, Jr., Central Florida
For: Could set NCAA rushing record, with exception of SF game, came up big when needed
Against: Plays in Conference USA
• Darren McFadden, Jr., Arkansas
For: Does everything well, #4 in rushing
Against: May not be best running back on team; Ark. lost four games
• Rashard Mendenhall, Jr., Illinois
For: Led Illini to Rose Bowl with 6.2 ypc
Against: Juice Williams considered hero of Ohio State game
• Chris Wells, Soph., Ohio State
For: Made more clutch runs when needed than anyone I saw
Against: Only finished 12th in rushing
• Felix Jones, Jr., Arkansas
For: Averaged 9.1 ypc, one of top kick returners in the nation
Against: Probably not best running back on team; Ark. lost four games

Next Tier: Matt Forte, Ray Rice, Mike Hart, Jonathan Stewart, Jamaal Charles, Javon Ringer, Knowshon Moreno, Ian Johnson, C.J. Spiller

Best at other positions: WR: Jordy Nelson, Michael Crabtree, Ryan Grice-Mullen, Mario Manningham, DeSean Jackson; TE: Travis Beckum, DL: George Selvie, Chris Long, Shawn Crable, Nick Reed, Maurice Evans, Eric Norwood, Jonal Saint-Dic; LB: Scott McKillop, Jordan Dizon, Erin Henderson, Mike Klinkenborg, James Laurenaitis, DB: Aqib Taliq, Leondis McKelvin, Jack Ikegwuonu, Alphonso Smith, Trae Williams

If I had a real Heisman ballot I can only vote for three, so here it is.
1. Tim Tebow: Can't ignore the numbers on that schedule
2. Dennis Dixon: Would've won if he stayed healthy
3. Kevin Smith: Expect him to set the rushing record, he has to be on ballot
If I could vote for 5:
4. Chris Wells: Maybe I watched more Ohio State than other people, but he always impressed me
5. Darren McFadden: Does it all.

It's been fun. I'm sure I left some people out, on my best of the rest. Tell me about it!

--Nate Sandstrom

Top 25-End of the Regular Season

It's the only poll that really matters and I have to admit I had a tough time picking who I wanted to put at #2 this week.

I had little issue putting Ohio State at #1. Everyone can rip the Big 10 all they want, I think they will come out in bowl season and show some teams. I can tell you the Buckeyes won't look past their SEC opponent this year.

Which brings me to LSU, who I decided in the end to give a slight edge over USC and Oklahoma. USC, Oklahoma and West Virginia can all point to injuries for one of their two losses, but the team I feel really bad for is Oregon, who I think would be in the title game if Dixon was hurt.

I've had LSU lower than most all year because I've been annoyed by how close their winning games. But in the end they won them, and that their two L's are in 3OT I went with them.

I don't feel very bad for Georgia, who was blown out by Tennessee. Sorry Mark Richt, that and a home loss to South Carolina is what cost you, not some media decree. He better hope the rest of the Bulldogs don't sulk or they may get Boise Stated.

But probably not. Hawaii has drawn a lot of comparisons to last year's Boise State squad, but I don't think they come close talent-wise. Boise was a legitimate Top 5 team last year, Hawaii is borderline Top 20. But hey, they win close games.

By the way, for those who want a playoff, there's one solution: Stop watching. As long as you're tuning in and buying tickets, it ain't changing, no matter how many self-righteous rants the pundits spew.

Here's my final poll:
1. Ohio State (11-1). Remember when everyone said they were out of it?
2. LSU (11-2). Hoping OSU game doesn't go to triple overtime.
3. USC (10-2). Wish they had that Stanford game back.
4. Oklahoma (11-2). My pre-season pick to win it came oh so close.
5. Georgia (10-2). Consolation for not getting in BCS title game: $15 mill+ from Sugar Bowl.
6. Missouri (11-2). Need to get the Sooners off the schedule.
7. Virginia Tech (11-2). You lost to LSU by six TDs. Quit whining.
8. West Virginia (10-2). Steve Slaton had 11 yards against Pitt!
9. Florida (9-3). If BCS had passed on Illini, Florida fans would've seen Zook in bowl game.
10. Illinois (9-3). Hey Gators, you in the BCS?
11. Kansas (11-1). Mark Mangenius: Shows everyone should play #96 schedule.
12. Arizona St. (10-2). Hawaii's end zone interception costs Sun Devil a home BCS game.
13. Boston College (10-3). Matty Ice threw one of the worst passes I've seen at end of VT game.
14. Wisconsin (9-3). Win over Vols would give Wisky their third straight 10-win season.
15. Auburn (8-4). Tommy Tuberville should lose eight games more often, he might be in NFL.
16. Tennessee (9-4). Ainge is SEC Title Game MVP.
17. Arkansas (8-4). McFadden and Felix hope Missouri sulks about missing BCS.
18. Cincinnati (9-3). Bearcats get back-to-back bowls for first time since 2000-2002.
19. Clemson (9-3). Narrow wins against Cocks sets up Tigers vs. Tigers in Chick-Fil-A Bowl.
20. South Florida (9-3). It's not #2, but successful season.
21. Virginia (9-3). Texas Tech should present good match-up in Gator Bowl.
22. Hawaii (12-0). Will have a chance to prove me wrong against Georgia.
23. Texas Tech (8-4). Win over Oklahoma the feather in their cap.
24. Kentucky (7-5). It's a long fall since earlier this year, but they won me over in the end.
25. Texas (9-3). Almost put Southern Illinois here instead.

--Nate Sandstrom

Maryland High School Championships

Want to see a local team win at M&T Bank Stadium? Head to next week's high school championships.

Two games are set, while the rest of the semi-finals are today.

Thursday, 7 p.m., 3A Title Game
#2 Damascus (Montgomery County, 12-1) vs. #1 Hereford (Baltimore County, 13-0)

A pair of juggernaut football programs face each other in this game.

Hereford has won nine Baltimore County championships since 1996 and state titles in 197, 2001 and 2002. Coach Steve Turnbaugh's eighth undefeated team in his 13th year at the school is led by senior RB Lonnie Liggins, who has rushed for 1,200 yards this season. The Bulls beat Lackey 35-20 on Friday, although the game was tight throughout. Senior DE Gordy Boone entered the game with a team leading 8.5 sacks and was third on the team with 45 tackles. Herford runs the wing T on offense and a 5-2 defense.

Damascus, in the playoffs for the 10th straight season is led by senior running back Evan Zedler and senior QB Kyle Frazier. Zedler reached the 2,000-yard mark in a 35-6 win over Wilde Lake on Friday. Frazier, (6'2, 210) rushed for threw his 20th TD pass on Friday, against just two picks. Senior LB Brian Wittenberger leads the team in tackles, with 121 entering Friday. Damascus runs a pro-I offense and a 3-4 defense. They won state titles in 1981, 1992, 1993, 1996, 2003 and 2005.

Saturday, 3:30 p.m. 2A Title Game
#2 Eastern Tech (Baltimore, 13-0) vs. #1 River Hill (Howard County, 13-0)

River Hill may be the most loaded team in the state, having outscored their opponents 537-14 this season, including 97-0 in three playoff games. They tied a state record on Friday, posting their 11th shutout of the season.

Don't sleep on Eastern Tech, who have outscored their opponents 82-12 in their playoff run. This is the Mavericks fifth straight playoff trip; they lost in the title game in 2003. They rolled over Clarksburg 35-0 on Friday. They entered the game with 3,065 rushing yards, but senior QB Travis Crane has also thrown 13 TDs. Their 5-2 defense has 27 INT's this year, and they run the Wing T offense. Their running backs include seniors Derryck Davis and Darian Conners.

However, they lack the blue-chip stars at River Hill.

Junior LB/WR Leron Eaddy, Junior RB/CB Malek Redd, Junior RB/CB Michael Campanaro, senior LB/RB Zach Martin and senior LB/TE Jonathan Hill are among the leaders of this very good football team. They also feature junior QB Luke Hostetler, former NYG QB Jeff Hostetler's nephew. Martin was on crutches Friday after he sprained his ankle in the first quarter, but Coach Brian Van Deusen said he hopes Martin will be able to play next weekend.

River Hill came up short against Friendly, another very talented team, in the 3A state final title game and a very motivated. Senior LB Alex Turner told me last night that the shutout record was an afterthought compared to winning the state title.

--Nate Sandstrom