Lockdown: Week 4

By Nate Sandstrom

With Missouri having just destroyed Nevada early Saturday, my lockdown picks were 5-1 for the year. An Auburn flub that night and a Vikings collapse a day later, my picks are suddenly a pedestrian 5-3.

Add to that my near miss on UL-Monroe at +450 two weeks ago and the upset special is now 0-3.

Update standings for Mark and I:

Lockdown:
Nate: 5-3 (+170)
Mark 5-2 (+280)

Upset Special:
Nate: 0-3 (-300)
Mark: 1-1 (+110)

Toss-Up
Nate leads Mark 1-0

Onto this weeks picks, which by total coincidence almost totally involve the Tar Heel state. I've also thrown in a bonus pick in an effort to boost my record.

East Carolina (-7) at N.C. State

After narrowly avoiding a loss to Tulane, it looks like the public may be wavering on how good the Pirates actually are. Now that Virginia Tech has looked poor in two games following their opening loss to East Carolina, and West Virginia has lost again, perhaps it's understandable.

But don't fail to notice how bad N.C. State may be. They've been outyardaged by 140 or more in their last three against Division 1-A opponents, going back to last year's 37-0 shutout against Maryland. The Wolfpack won this match-up last year in a game also thought ECU would win, but I think this year the Pirates keep their bid for a BCS Bowl alive.

Pick: East Carolina 27 N.C. State 7

North Carolina (-3) vs. Virginia Tech

The Tar Heels haven't had a winning football team since 2001, but they may have put the nation on notice that they are back after whipping Rutgers in New Jersey 44-12 last weekend. UNC was actually outyardaged by Rutgers, as well as McNeese State in the opener, but their big play capability has Butch Davis' squad back on the map.

Meanwhile, a team know for big plays, Virginia Tech, has certainly lacked them this season. The QB controversy is in full effect as Glennon and Taylor have thrown 1 TD combined. They were outyardaged by 14o in their narrow home win against Ga. Tech last week and I expect the offense to continue their struggles.

Pick: North Carolina 31 Virginia Tech 16

Alabama (-9) at Arkansas

If you've been reading the blog this year, you'd notice that I think the 'Hogs may be one of the most overrated teams in the nation. I called for them to be defeated at home by both 1-AA Western Illinois and two-touchdown 'dog UL-Monroe. Late rallies prevented both picks from coming true, but there will be no rally against the Tide, who are allowing less than 8 ppg.

Pick: Alabama 37 Arkansas 13

Carolina (+3) at Minnesota

Disregard everything I said about the Vikings in this week's faceoff. Sharper, Peterson and Berrian are questionable this week. Rice is doubtful. Frerotte is the starter. Childress is an idiot. Even a time with this much talent in the trenches can't overcome this situation.

Pick: Carolina 20 Minnesota 10

Upset Special: Boise State (+320) at Oregon

As much success as Boise State has had over the past decade, they've never won a road game against a BCS team. But Oregon's QB situation is up in the air again, and we all remember what happened after Dixon went down last year. I'm guessing Oregon will still put points on the board, but costly turnovers will do them in.

Pick: Boise State 37 Oregon 34

Around the nation's college teams — Part II

By Nate Sandstrom

Alabama Crimson Tide
(7-6 in 2007; 7 returning starters on offense, 6 on defense)
(Predicted SEC West finish — Phil Steele: 3; Athlon: 3; Lindy's: 3; overall average 3)



Nick Saban's first year as Alabama's head coach was a disappointment to many in Tuscaloosa. After a 3-0 start they lost six of the next nine before edging a mediocre Colorado team in the Independence Bowl to get above .500.

Perhaps more disappointing was that the Tide was just a few plays away from playing in a New Year's Day bowl. All six of their losses came by a touchdown or less, including a 41-34 loss to eventual national champ LSU after a costly fumble in the game's final minutes. They were also about to pull ahead of Mississippi State 16-3 before the Bulldogs returned an INT for 100 yards and a 10-9 lead. They eventually won 17-12.

Senior QB John Parker Wilson (pictured above) is hoping to clean up the turnover problems and turn some of those close losses into wins this year. Wilson has thrown for more than 5,500 yards the last two seasons and is looking forward to working with the nation's top wide receiver recruit, Julio Jones (see highlight reel at left). Of course the bad news is that Jones has to step in for departed DJ Hall, who topped 1,000 yards receiving the past two years.

Alabama will also hope to have a 1,000-yard rusher in sophomore Terry Grant. Grant ran for 891 yards last season before missing the loss at Auburn and the bowl game because of a hip injury. Saban says that he has looked good in camp thus far. Grant will also be running behind an offensive line that returns four starters and the tight end.

The Tide returns six defensive starters on a defense that lacks standouts outside of senior FS Rashad Johnson. Sophomore Rolando McClain will be back in the linebacking corps after a freshman season that saw him make 75 tackles and intercept two passes. Expect improvement this year, and a greater leadership role.

However, it will likely be the defense and road games at Georgia, Tennessee and LSU that keeps this team in the middle of the pack in the SEC West, behind Auburn and LSU.