College Football Preview/Picks ... in brief

By Nate Sandstrom

Well, college football got underway last night and goes off full bore on Saturday. Below, I’ve tossed one man’s projections for this year’s results by going through game-by-game on the schedule.

Due to having two crazy weeks, most of this is in summary form. You’ll find projections for each bowl game and regular season standings. In the standings, teams in bold are projected to be bowl teams, and teams with a (z) after their name are projected to win their conference championship games. Championship games are included in the conference record, but not standings (i.e. Colorado is listed as 5-4 ‘cause I have them beating Nebraska to earn the North Division bid but then losing to Oklahoma in the Big 12 Championship).

In the FCS section, an (x) denotes a team earning an automatic bid into the playoffs and a (y) indicates a team earning an at-large bid.

I think I’m off to an OK start as I nailed 16.5-point underdog North Texas winning at Ball State last night as well as Boise State beating an overrated Oregon team that has four new starters on the OL. However, I have to humbly admit I had no idea that the South Carolina defense would be able to so thoroughly dominate the Wolfpack.

Some other humble projections:

n Oklahoma will finally shake off their sudden reputation for choking and defeat Cal in Pasadena to win the National Championship. I’m also picking Penn State to get revenge against USC in the Rose Bowl, Florida to best Florida State for a second straight game in the Orange bowl, Boise State to edge BYU in a non-BCS team Fiesta Bowl and an overconfident Ole Miss to narrowly escape a Rutgers upset bid in the Sugar Bowl.

n My picks for top surprise teams are Colorado to win the Big 12 North, Arkansas to go from a losing season to the Chick-Fil-A Bowl, Illinois to bounce back from a losing year to play New Year’s Day on the strength of a second-straight win in Columbus and San Diego State to go from 2-10 to a bowl game.

n Top flops include Oregon settling for the Poinsettia Bowl and Michigan not really turning it around that much to finish 6-6 and land in the Motor City Bowl. I also have Texas losing to both Oklahoma and Oklahoma State; I wouldn’t call it a flop but those in Austin may. Staying in the Big 12, I have both Kansas and Missouri failing to qualify for bowl games.

n Speaking of Missouri, they are among two teams I’m picking to lose games against teams they defeated by more than 50 points a year ago. After defeating Nevada 69-17 last year, I have a Chase Daniel and Jeremy Maclin-less Mizzou squad falling to the Wolfpack. In FCS ball, I’ve got Hofstra turning the tables on James Madison, a team they lost to 56-0 last year, on their way to a playoff bid.

OK, look at them now, laugh at me later.

Bowl Picks:

Championship: Oklahoma vs. California
Rose: Penn State vs. USC
Orange: Florida State vs. Florida
Fiesta: Boise State vs. BYU
Sugar: Mississippi vs. Rutgers
Capital One: Illinois vs. Alabama
Gator: Notre Dame vs. Georgia Tech
Cotton: Oklahoma State vs. Georgia
Outback: Ohio State vs. LSU
Insight: Iowa vs. Colorado
Chick-fil-A: Virginia Tech vs. Arkansas
Liberty: Southern Miss vs. Tennessee
Sun: Texas Tech vs. Arizona
Holiday: Texas vs. Stanford
Alamo: Wisconsin vs. Nebraska
Music City: North Carolina vs. Vanderbilt
Meineke: West Virginia vs. Clemson
Champs Sports: Michigan State vs. Miami
Poinsettia: Utah vs. Oregon
PapaJohns.com: Pittsburgh vs. Auburn
Emerald: N.C. State vs. Oregon State
Independence: Houston vs. Kansas State
GMAC: Western Michigan vs. Tulsa
Hawaii: Nevada vs. Minnesota
Las Vegas: TCU vs. UCLA
Humanitarian: Fresno State vs. UNLV
Armed Forces: Texas El-Paso vs. San Diego State
Motor City: Central Michigan vs. Michigan
Texas: Navy vs. Baylor
New Orleans: Troy vs. Memphis
New Mexico: Akron vs. Air Force
St. Petersburg: East Carolina vs. South Florida
International: Ohio vs. Cincinnati
Eagle Bank: Marshall vs. Wake Forest

Predicted Regular Season Standings

ACC Atlantic Conf Overall
1. Florida State-z 6-3 8-5
2. N.C. State 5-3 8-4
3. Clemson 5-3 7-5
4. Boston College 3-5 5-7
5. Wake Forest 3-5 6-6
6. Maryland 2-6 4-8

ACC Coastal Conf Overall
1. Georgia Tech 7-2 10-3
2. Virginia Tech 6-2 9-3
3. Miami 5-3 7-5
4. North Carolina 3-5 7-5
5. Virginia 2-6 4-8
6. Duke 2-6 3-9

Big East Conf Overall
1. Rutgers 6-1 11-1
2. Pittsburgh 5-2 9-3
3. West Virginia 5-2 9-3
4. South Florida 4-3 8-4
5. Cincinnati 4-3 6-6
6. Connecticut 4-3 5-7
7. Louisville 1-6 4-8
8. Syracuse 0-8 1-11

Big Ten Conf Overal
1. Penn State 7-1 11-1
2. Illinois 6-2 10-2
3. Ohio State 6-2 9-3
4. Wisconsin 5-3 9-3
5. Michigan St. 5-3 8-4
6. Iowa 4-4 8-4
7. Minnesota 4-4 7-5
8. Michigan 3-5 6-6
9. Northwestern 2-6 6-6
10. Purdue 2-6 5-8
11. Indiana 0-8 2-10

Big 12 North Conf Overall
1. Colorado 5-4 8-5
2. Nebraska 5-3 8-4
3. Kansas St. 4-4 8-4
4. Kansas 2-6 5-7
5. Missouri 1-7 3-9
6. Iowa State 1-7 4-8

Big 12 South Conf Overall
1. Oklahoma-z 8-0 13-0
2. Oklahoma St. 7-1 11-1
3. Texas 6-2 10-2
4. Texas Tech 4-4 7-5
5. Baylor 4-4 8-4
6. Texas A&M 1-7 4-8

C-USA East Conf Overall
1. So. Mississippi-z 8-1 12-1
2. Memphis 5-3 6-6
3. Marshall 4-4 6-6
4. East Carolina 4-4 6-6
5. UA-Birmingham 3-5 4-8
6. Central Florida 3-5 5-7

C-USA West Conf Overall
1. Texas-El Paso 7-2 9-4
2. Houston 6-2 9-3
3. Tulsa 4-4 6-6
4. SMU 3-5 6-6
5. Rice 3-5 3-9
6. Tulane 1-7 2-10

Independents Overall
1. Notre Dame 10-2
2. Navy 8-5
3. Army 5-7

MAC East Conf Overall
1. Kent State 5-4 6-7
2. Buffalo 5-3 5-7
3. Ohio U. 5-3 8-4
4. Akron 4-4 7-5
5. Temple 3-5 5-7
6. Bowling Green 2-6 2-10
7. Miami 1-7 1-11

MAC West
1. C. Michigan-z 9-0 11-2
2 W. Michigan 7-1 8-4
3. Toledo 4-4 5-7
4. No. Illinois 4-4 6-6
5. Ball State 3-5 5-7
6. E. Michigan 1-7 1-11

Mountain West Conf Overall
1. BYU 8-0 11-1
2. TCU 7-1 11-1
3. Utah 6-2 9-3
4. Air Force 4-4 6-6
5. San Diego St. 3-5 6-6
6. UNLV 3-5 6-6
7. Colorado St. 3-5 5-7
8. Wyoming 2-6 2-10
9. New Mexico 0-8 1-11

Pac-10 Conf Overall
1. California 9-0 12-0
2. USC 8-1 11-1
3. Stanford 5-4 7-5
4. Arizona 5-4 7-5
5. Oregon 5-4 7-5
6. Oregon State 4-5 6-6
7. UCLA 4-5 6-6
8. Arizona State 3-6 5-7
9. Washington 2-7 3-9
10. Washington St. 0-9 0-12

SEC East Conf Overall
1. Georgia 7-2 10-3
2. Florida 7-1 11-1
3. Tennessee 4-4 7-5
4. Vanderbilt 3-5 6-6
5. South Carolina 2-6 4-8
6. Kentuky 1-7 4-8

SEC West Conf Overall
1. Ole Miss-z 8-1 12-1
2. Alabama 7-1 11-1
3. LSU 4-4 8-4
4. Arkansas 3-5 7-5
5. Auburn 3-5 6-6
6. Miss. State 0-8 1-11

Sun Belt Conf Overall
1. Troy 8-0 10-2
2. UL-Monroe 5-3 6-6
3. Arkansas St. 5-3 6-6
4. Florida Atlantic 5-3 5-7
5. Middle Tennessee 5-3 5-7
6. Florida Int’l 4-4 4-8
7. North Texas 2-6 3-9
8. W. Kentucky 1-7 1-11
9. Louisiana-Laff. 1-7 2-10

WAC Conf Overall
1. Boise State 8-0 13-0
2. Nevada 7-1 10-2
3. Fresno State 6-2 8-4
4. La. Tech 4-4 5-7
5 San Jose St. 4-4 5-7
6. Hawaii 3-5 5-8
7. Utah State 3-5 4-8
8. Idaho 1-7 1-11
9. New Mexico St. 0-8 1-12

Big Sky Conf Overall
1. Montana-x 8-0 10-1
2. E. Washington-y 6-2 8-3
3. Weber State 6-2 8-3
4. Montana St. 5-3 7-4
5. No. Arizona 4-4 5-6
6. Portland St. 3-5 4-7
7. No. Colorado 2-6 2-9
8. Sacramento St. 1-7 2-9
9. Idaho St. 1-7 2-9

Big South Conf Overall
1. Gardner-Webb 5-1 9-2
2. Stony Brook 5-1 7-4
3. Liberty 4-2 6-5
4. Coastal Carolina 4-2 7-4
5. VMI 2-4 4-7
6. Presbyterian 1-5 1-10
7. Charleston So. 0-6 2-9

Colonial North Conf Overall
1. Hofstra-y 7-1 9-2
2. New Hampshire-y 6-2 8-3
3. Maine 4-4 5-6
4. Massachusetts 3-5 5-6
5. Rhode Island 2-6 4-7
6. Northeastern 1-7 1-10

Colonial South Conf Overall
1. Richmond-x 7-1 9-2
2. Villanova-y 6-2 8-3
3. William & Mary 5-3 7-4
4. James Madison 4-4 6-5
5. Delaware 3-5 5-6
6. Towson 0-8 0-11

Great West Conf Overall
1. UC-Davis-y 4-0 8-3
2. Cal Poly 3-1 4-6
3. South Dakota 1-3 5-5
4. North Dakota 1-3 4-7
5. Southern Utah 1-3 3-8

Independents Overall
1. Savannah St. 8-3
2. Bryant 5-6
3. N.C. Central 5-6
4. Old Dominion 3-8

Ivy Conf Overall
1. Pennsylvania 6-1 7-3
2. Harvard 6-1 8-2
3. Brown 4-3 4-6
4. Princeton 4-3 4-6
5. Columbia 3-4 4-6
6. Cornell 2-5 3-7
7. Yale 2-5 4-6
8. Dartmouth 1-6 1-9

MEAC Conf Overall
1. S. Carolina St.-x 8-0 9-2
2. Florida A&M 6-2 8-3
3. Bethune-Cook. 5-3 8-3
4. Morgan St. 5-3 7- 4
5. Norfolk St. 4-4 6-5
6. Hampton 4-4 7-4
7. Howard 2-6 3-8
8. Delaware St. 2-6 3-8
9. N.C. A & T 1-7 2-9
10. Winston-Salem x-x 2-9

Missouri Valley Conf Overall
1. Southern Illinois-x 7-1 9-2
2. North Dakota St.-y 6-2 8-3
3. Youngstown St. 6-2 8-3
4. Northern Iowa 6-2 8-3
5. Western Illinois 3-5 5-6
6. South Dakota St. 3-5 5-6
7. Illinois State 2-6 4-7
8. Missouri St. 2-6 2-9
9. Indiana St. 0-8 0-11

Northeast Conf Overall
1. Albany 6-1 8-3
2. Robert Morris 6-1 8-3
3. Sacred Heart 4-3 6-4
4. Monmouth 4-3 6-5
5. Duquense 3-4 4-7
6. C. Conn. State 3-4 6-5
7. Wagner 1-6 3-8
8. St. Francis 0-7 1-10

Ohio Valley Conf Overall
1. Jacksonville St.-x 7-1 8-3
2. UT-Martin 6-2 8-3
3. E. Kentucky 5-3 6-5
4. Murray St. 4-4 6-5
5. Eastern Illinois 4-4 6-5
6. Tennessee Tech 4-4 5-6
7. Austin Peay 3-5 3-7
8. Tennessee St. 2-6 2-9
9. SE Missouri St. 0-8 1-10

Patriot Conf Overall
1. Holy Cross-x 5-1 10-1
2. Lafayette 5-1 9-2
3. Colgate 4-2 8-3
4. Bucknell 2-4 6-5
5. Fordham 2-4 4-7
6. Lehigh 2-4 3-8
7. Georgetown 1-5 2-9

Pioneer Conf Overall
1. San Diego 7-1 10-1
2. Jacksonville 6-2 8-3
3. Dayton 6-2 7-3
4. Morehead St. 5-3 6-5
5. Butler 5-3 8-3
6. Marist 5-3 6-5
7. Drake 3-5 5-6
8. Valparaiso 1-7 4-7
9. Davidson 1-7 2-8
10. Campbell 0-8 1-10

Southern Conf Overall
1. Appalachian St.-x 7-1 9-2
2. Wofford 6-2 7-4
3. Elon-y 6-2 8-3
4. Georgia So. 5-3 6-5
5. Furman 5-3 6-5
6. Citadel 4-4 6-5
7. Samford 2-6 4-7
8. Chattanooga 1-7 3-8
9. W. Carolina 0-8 0-11

Southland Conf Overall
1. C. Arkansas-x 6-1 10-2
2. McNeese St.-y 6-1 8-3
3. N’western St. 4-3 5-6
4. Texas St. 3-4 5-6
5. S.F. Austin 3-4 5-6
6. Sam Houston St. 3-4 4-7
7. SE Louisiana 2-5 4-7
8. Nicholls St. 1-6 2-9

SWAC East Conf Overall
1. Jackson St. 7-1 8-2
2. Alabama A&M 5-3 6-5
3. Alabama St. 2-5 5-6
4. Alcorn St. 1-7 1-9
5. Miss Valley St. 1-7 3-8

SWAC West
1. Prairie View 7-1 8-2
2. Grambling St. 7-1 9-2
3. Southern 4-3 7-4
4. Ark.-Pine Bluff 3-5 6-5
5. Texas Southern 2-5 2-8

Opening Night!

It's one of my favorite nights of the year — opening Thursday night for college football season. I stayed up until 2 am this morning finishing up my regular season picks, will get to bowl match-ups and I-AA playoffs today and then dig in for the ESPN double header tonight.

Ol' ESPN opens this year's feast with South Carolina visiting N.C. State at 7 p.m. followed by a clash between highly touted teams as Oregon travels to Boise State at 10:30 p.m.

You've also got Indiana hosting Eastern Kentucky on Big Ten Network, and once I have all that digested, I'll post my final picks for National Champs, surprises, busts, etc.

But first it's off to work at the golf course this morning, so I got to run. Happy football season!

--Nate

Non-Favre reaction and this fall...

Hi everyone,

We are about to ramp up for the season and among news we are planning to add a new fantasy sports column by two former colleagues that I think will be both funny and informative.

I guess as an on-again/off-again Vikings fan I should have some kind of Favre reaction but it's not more than meh. I bet Favre, Jackson and Rosenfels all see action in at least six games so I'm not getting too flustered by who is QB. I'm worried about who is blocking for them. (And at the moment I'm far more worried by the latest Phil Humber botch).

I've been pouring over college previews from Sporting News, Athlon and Phil Steele over the last two months and am preparing to unleash my annual preview/picks that are slated to be released Sept. 1 and Sept. 2 (Last year's claim to fame: Called for Michigan to finish 3-9; Last year's blunder: Auburn to win SEC West).

NFL Preview will be out the following week after I can spend my vacation week poring over NFL stats and depth charts.

We'll also freshen up in general over the next two weeks, so get ready to start keeping up with SoBo, including our winning picks on Lockdown.

Looking forward to Sept. 3! (Get your season started with South Carolina-N.C. State)
--Nate

NFL: Challenge us and you shalt continue peeing in cups

By Nate Sandstrom

This story in the Star-Tribune has the latest in Pro-Bowl Vikings DT Pat and Kevin Williams's court challenge to the NFL's decision to suspend them for 4 games for a banned substance.

At isssue is that the Williamseses took a weight loss supplement that could mask the use of steroids, not that the NFL is officially accusing them of using steroids. However, due to its masking ability, it is banned.

Now that you have the main issue down, the interesting twist this story takes today is that the Williamseseses' attorney says the NFL is singling the Williamseseses out for me tests since they challenged the suspension. From the article:

Ginsberg alleged that the increased testing amounts to retaliation against the defensive tackles and violates both the NFL's policy against performance-enhancing drugs and state law. He said he's still trying to get the testing records to be sure, but he said it appears they have each been tested more than six times since the Pro Bowl and that the frequency has increased.

"They seem to be testing them about three times a month if not more, which is far in excess of what the testing policies allow. ... It's not being done randomly. Kevin and Pat are being singled out," Ginsberg said.

NFL spokesman Greg Aiello denied that the league is retaliating against the Williamses, but declined to comment on how often they've been tested.

So is this purely punitive? Is the NFL trying to bust them with steroids to get them to drop their challenge the current 4-game suspension that would begin in Week 1? Stay tuned.

Less than one hour to the official release of the Phil Steele College Football Preview

By Nate Sandstrom

Just in time for the hours I will be spending on planes next week, my favorite stat-packed college football preview officially hits the racks tomorrow.

Apparently though, you can already find Phil Steele's National College Football several places, as my cousin's boyfriend already sent me a message today about Steele pegging our UW Badgers sixth in the Big Ten (although they are his #38 team talent-wise nationally).

I'll be picking up a copy from Rite-Aid after work tomorrow, but in case you can't wait he has added much more new content to his Web site this year, including a daily blog and Facebook and MySpace pages. He is also releasing a PDF file each day for each Top 40 team. Tonight he has LSU, who is picking to find improved QB play and improve on last year's disastrous 8-5 season.

Steele's even more detailed regional magazines, which include FCS teams, are slated to go to press next week.

Yay, college football!

I am so smart: s-m-r-t

Al Davis had Lane Kiffin dead on. Read the latest debacle here. Meyer will have the last laugh.

If I don't get money, kids with Downs Syndrome don't either

Read more Brian Waters' about douche-baggery here.

Redskins '09 roster: About the same as '08?

By Nate Sandstrom

With RT Jon Jansen being cut on Friday (more on this below) and the calendar flipping to June 1st, the Washington Times' Ryan O'Halloran put out a mock 53-man roster for the upcoming season. Check it out here.

In case you don't want to bother clicking, it can be summed up as pretty much the same. Yes, they've added Haynesworth, brought back Dockery and drafted Orakpo (who is projected at LB here but some expect to play DE), but it otherwise appears that there will be little difference from last year's squad on most downs.

For that reason, unless the OL has some kind of major turnaround, this seems like an average team that will continue to be between 6-10 and 10-6 depending on how injuries (their own and other teams') unfold along the schedule and how lucky bounces affect the turnover margin.

As for Jansen, he seemed to be a good guy who had a decent career that could've been better were it not for some major injuries. He signed with the Lions today, perhaps not suprising since he is a Michigan native and alum.

I'm not sure if Lions GM Martin Mayhew still has Redskins' connections that affected this deal; the article doesn't mention it. I also recall Jansen getting in a fight with the Lions during a 1999 playoff game, but I couldn't find anything to back up that memory.

Minnesota Vikings: Free agent weekend #1

"Say Goodbye to these, Vikings!"; or, "How I Stopped Worrying About Not Signing Housh and Focused on Players that Matter."



By Nate Sandstrom

Who's in: Sage Rosenfels
Who's out: Darren Sharper, Vinny Ciurciu, Matt Birk, Maurice Hicks
Who's back: Jim Kleinsasser
Up in the air: Jay Cutler

Pretty much all talk about the Vikings this season begins and ends with the quarterback position. That was briefly interrupted when the Vikings chased — but failed to sign — an old, whiny receiver in T.J. Houshmandzadeh. Relax angry Viking fans, Seattle overpaid while Sidney Rice is entering his third year: in which many NFL receivers have had breakout season.

Houshmandzadeh said he was impressed by the way the Seahawks treated his family. I guess Vikings fans won't be privileged enough to have the Housh kids running up and down the Metrodome aisles. Fortunately, they will also miss out on paying $40 mil to a receiver who had three fewer TD catches than Bernard Berrian last year. Plus, Sidney Rice is in his third year, the one where receivers with promise typically break out in the NFL.

So let's get back to who will be throwing him the ball. Denver insists they are not trading Cutler, so I'm going to take them at their word and continue to promise that Josh McDaniels will be a disaster there.

That leaves them with newly acquired Sage Rosenfels, who was just signed to a two-year $9M deal. Rosenfels is slated to compete with Tavaris Jackson, who was 2-4 as a starter last year, including playoffs, and never-played-a-down USC alum John David Booty.

I think Sage will win the job. He can throw the deep ball and will be dangerous with Bernard Berrian. Turnovers have always been a problem for him, but he can't give the ball away more than Frerotte — and he was 8-3 as a starter.

Even if Sage falters, I saw signs of promise in Tavaris late last year. I was almost apoplectic when the Vikings took him in the second round three years ago, but I thought he improved his accuracy and gained more confidence in pulling down the ball and running — until things fell apart in the playoffs.

Matt Birk is also now gone. I can't believe Minnesota couldn't match a thee-year, $12 mil deal. Childress said Birk wanted a change of scenery. First I heard of that, but OK. My favorite response came from a fan who simply said: "Screw you, Major Dad!"

So, who are the replacements for Birk? These guys, I guess. One fan on the Star Trib site had this optimistic take:

Last time this happened?

Remember???......4 time Pro Bowl Center...7 years on the team, long time starter...very popular in the community...left in free agency for … read more big money Tampa Bay..we all thought..how do ya replace Jeff Christy??...whos this Matt Birk kid??....its part of the evolution fo a team....very grateful for Matty B and will keep patronizing his restaurant, however I also saw a guy loosing many one on one run blocks against younger linemen...he probably has 2 years in the tank...he might as well make the extra cash and we might as well groom the next Pro Bowl center.....next!

Possible? Yes. Probable? No. Birk is a big loss.

Still, at least the defense is in tact ... so far. The hearing for the Williamses's steroid controversy is June 15.

Baltimore Ravens Free Agency Week 1

There was no way for the Ravens to win this offseason. With Jason Brown, Bart Scott, Ray Lewis, Terrell Suggs, Jim Leohnard, Matt Stover, and Lorenzo Neal becoming free agents, the team was bound to struggle to improve. Each of those players contributed significantly to the team last year.

Going into the offseason, the general consensus was that the Ravens would be smart to make the following moves
- Let Leohnard walk
- Keep Suggs as priority #1
- Make a fair, but firm offer to Ray
- Make an offer to Scott, but if you can't keep him, no big loss considering the young linebackers on the team
- Try your hardest to keep Brown without breaking the bank

I would have considered Brown priority 2b. Keeping Ray or Scott being 2a and Suggs being #1.

Considering these priorities, I'd give the team a C. Suggs is still here, but only thanks to a second straight season of tag. Scott is gone (and they nearly overpaid to keep him) and we don't have Ray. Meanwhile, Brown ran to the Rams. And judging by his words on the way out, the Ravens never made a serious effort to keep him.

The Ray saga is hardly the Ravens' fault. He's acted like a childish debutaunte who has long dreamed of being courted in free agency. But still, the Ravens have to take some blame for the way it's unfolded. And by all accounts, they raised their offer from $12M in gaurantees to $17M even though he's not received a single offer of note from another team.

So the only move of signficance the team has made so far is to sign Dominique Foxworth to a substantial contract for a middle-of-the-pack player. (A contract by the way that is sure to aggravate Ray and further complicate those negotiations) But fine, if the Ravens want to build depth at corner, so be it. At first glance, this contract seems suspect at best. However, I'll give it time before I declare it foolish.

Now, they have Matt Birk in town and are expected to make an offer to him to replace Brown. This move could end up being very smart. Based on last year's success with free agents like Neal and Anderson, I would have high hopes for Birk. And presumably, the contract will be for less than Brown was demanding.

I like the restraint the Ravens have shown so far in not giving away too much money to keep older players. But was there restraint in signing Foxworth on day 1 when there were no known suitors offering similar contracts?

Hey, at least they're not giving away $41M guaranteed to a 28 year old defensive tackle whose never played a complete season.

Washington Redskins: Free-agent weekend #1

Mo' money, mo' money, mo' money
By Nate Sandstrom



Jim Zorn and Jason Taylor hold a #1 jersey last summer. One is the approximate number of sacks Taylor made in his time as a Redskins.

Who's back: DeAngelo Hall
Who's in: Albert Haynesworth, Derrick Dockery
Who's out: Jason Taylor, Shawn Springs, Marcus Washington

I'm choosing to highlight the Redskins' opening free-agency weekend with this photo of Jason Taylor to keep optimistic Redskins fans well-grounded after the Albert Haynesworth signing. Just a reminder that although their massive cash transactions occasionally work out (i.e. London Fletcher) they more often wind up like busts such as Deion Sanders, Bruce Smith, Jeff George, Brandon Lloyd, T.J. Duckett, Dana Stubblefield and now Jason Taylor.

The 'skins gave up $8.5 million, the #44 pick in the upcoming draft and a sixth-round pick next year in exchange for Taylor's 3.5 sacks on a last-place team.

Wasn't Haynesworth supposed to free-up Taylor for sacks? Oh well. Washington was the #4 yardage and #6 scoring defense in the NFL last year.

So why did the Redskins sign a $100 million contract and a $54 million deal with DeAngelo Hall to improve what was one of the best in the NFL last year? Meanwhile, the team has done little to address their biggest problems:

1) Possibly the worst kicking game in the league (last in net punt average and last in field goal accuracy)
2) An offense that was one of two in the league that failed to post 3o points in a single game and an offensive line that couldn't give Campbell time or provide a push for Portis.

They did bring back Derrick Dockery, who was cast aside by the Bills after he signed for big money there. I'm hoping Dockery will be effective this year as Bills cast-away Jim Leonhard was for the Ravens last year.

I will miss Springs and Washington, but both have been injured so much lately that I understand the decision to let them go.

Locally, the overall reaction to the signings seem to be positive, but forgive me for not feeling more enthusiastic about the opening weekend of free agency. (See forums at the Hogs, and the Post for more).

Lockdown: Updated count

By Nate Sandstrom

After blowing the Eagles-Giants game big-time last week, it looks like I am hanging up the "lock" predictions for the season (though I'll take the points in my pool in both games this weekend). I'm not sure if Mark will have any picks this weekend.

It looks like we both finish up for the year on the 100 per game system that avoids exotic bets (i.e. parlays, teasers, etc.) We both fought off mid-season swoons, with Mark closing with eight straight wins ATS and me finishing 9-2-1 ATS.

Here's a look at the final count for those keeping count at home:

ATS
Nate: 27-21-2 (+390)
Mark: 17-10 (+600)

Money line upsets:
Nate: 4-11 (+170)
Mark: 1-5 (-190)

Hey, you can't picks like these for free everywhere.

So, what else is in the news?

You'll probably hear even less from me than you have been in the less month into March, I'm switching to full basketball, hockey and baseball mode. See you at spring practices and the draft!

Oh, heck, one more prediction. Josh McDaniels were be nearly as bad a hire for Denver as Gene Chizik was Iowa State (FYI: Chizik went 5-19, 2-14 in the Big 12 and lost to an FCS team during his two-year tenure in Ames).

Playoff Lockdown

By Nate Sandstrom


Philadelphia at New York Giants (-4)

Philadelphia seems to be a trendy pick all of a sudden, but before you join the herd let's think about the following items:

1) Despite wins at Minnesota last week and in their last trip to the Meadowlands, the Eagles have often struggled on the road this season (see loss at Washington, tie at Cincy).

2) As mentioned, the Eagles D held New York in check last time they played, but the Giants have had the edge overall in recent meetings, winning the previous three.

3) Minnesota outgained the Eagles by 80 yards on the ground, and they abandoned the rush attack early.

Sorry phickle Philly phans, but your roller coaster season is about to plunge. Feel free to resume your calls for Andy Reid's head, Donovan McNabb's head and start crying again.

The Giants will get their ground game going early and be able to hit slant routes to battle the blitz. It may not be a full-fledged blowout, but I expect New York to be in control the whole time.

Pick: New York 27 Phialdelphia 13

Final Top 25 poll

By Nate Sandstrom

Another college football season is in the books and overall I rate it unspectacular in comparison with some recent years. Maybe that's partly because I've never been an avid follower of the Big 12 South or the SEC and those two divisions/conferences were involved in the biggest games each Saturday this season.

I think the greatest moment is probably Michael Crabtree's catch over Texas that cost the 'Horns a shot at a national title. Other moments/points I will always remember were Ole Miss stopping Tim Tebow on a fourth and one to preserve an upset, Georgia Tech gashing Georgia's defense in third quarter of that rivalry game, that tipped Allen Everidge interception that Michigan ran back for a TD (which began the Badgers' lost season), how awful the Clemson offense was in the season opener agaist Alabama and Pittsburgh stopping West Virginia's final drive to win the Backyard Brawl for the second straight year.

Last but certainly not least is the way in which Utah sliced Alabama's defense on their first drive in the Sugar Bowl and cruised to a 21-0 lead. I was so impressed with the win, which I essentially count as a road game, that I am joining 16 other AP writers in putting the Utes #1.

For all the teeth-nashing about not having a college football playoff, this is only the second time I remember ranking a team #1 that did not get a share of the national title (1994 Penn State is the other).

I'm still not going to yell for a playoff, but if something playoff-like is installed, here's what I would like to see:

Play all bowl games as normal, and make sure they are all done by New Year's Day (there were only like five New Year's game this year, it was awful). Then select four teams that won their bowl games and have a mini-playoff. It would still be done by Jan. 15, before spring semester begins at most schools.

For what it is (or isn't) worth, here are my final rankings (W-L, pvs rank):
1) Utah (13-0, 10). Most impressive of any of the BCS teams in their bowl game.
2) Florida (12-1, 1). Clutch takeaways give Gators official title.
3) USC (12-1, 5). Also a dominating bowl performance, but it was a home game.
4) Texas (12-1, 3). McCoy should've been Heisman; led another clutch drive in Fiesta Bowl.
5) Oklahoma (12-2, 2). You can't get inside the six twice and come away with no points.
6) Alabama (12-2, 4). #1 rankings seems like a long time ago.
7) TCU (11-2, 14). Knocks Boise from ranks of undefeated and came closest to beating Utah.
8) Boise State (12-1, 8). Another great year, including win at Oregon.
9) Penn State (11-2, 6). What if Iowa missed that kick and PSU's secondary was in title game?
10) Ohio State (10-3, 9). Think Bucks are looking forward to hosting USC next Sept.?
11) Texas Tech (11-2, 7). Disappointing Cotton Bowl, but at least they've kept their coach.
12) Oregon (10-3, 13). Just another 10-win season in Eugene.
13) Georgia (10-3, 16). Despite rocky times, end their season with a New Year's win.
14) Mississippi (9-4, 17). Beat Florida, Texas Tech and LSU in banner year.
15) Oklahoma State (9-4, 11). A young team that will try to avoid step back next year.
16) Virginia Tech (10-4, 23). At least they snapped ACC's 8-game BCS losing streak.
17) Cincinnati (11-3, 12). Wish they could have that Orange Bowl over.
18) Oregon State (9-4, 21). Three losses to teams in my Top 12.
19) Pittsburgh (9-4, 19). Bowl game shutout a sour end.
20) Iowa (9-4, 20). May have been best team in the Big Ten.
21) California (9-4, NR). Good season in what could have been a down year.
22) Missouri (10-4, NR). Second straight year with double-digit wins, but still underacheived.
23) Nebraska (9-4, NR). Maybe there is a 'D' in Lincoln.
24) LSU (8-5, NR). Peach, er, Chik-Fil-A bowl provides some redemption.
25) Georgia Tech (9-4, 15). Despite blowout bowl loss, Paul Johnson led Jackets to a great year.

Now, with 2008 in the books, we can all look to 2009. NationalChamps.net, the Atlanta Journal-Constitution and SI.com already give you a look — and it's about the same as this year.

Lockdown: Year End Bonus

By Nate Sandstrom

There are usually few weeks harder to predict NFL lines than Week 17. There's always an interesting set of factors determining which teams will be motivated to get into the playoffs, knock a team out, carry momentum into next year and so on.

This week, there's no shortage of such match-ups and there's been crazy line movement. Yet, I am about to put a year-high four games on lockdown, with the addition of a great upset special. Am I overconfident because I'm on an 8-1-1 run? Yes. But here we go anyway.

Chicago at Houston (-2.5)

The Bears have eeked out back-to-back overtime wins on the first possession of the extra period. Despite that, they've been outgained by more than 100 yards in each contest. Their luck runs out today in Houston, where the Texans are 11-4 the last two seasons.

Pick: Houston 24 Chicago 13

N.Y. Giants at Minnesota (-7)

My dad has insisted all week that the Vikings will choke like they do every year. I submit to you that their choke was last week, when they lost at home to Atlanta because of four lost fumbles. A key fumble late also did the Vikings in against Tampa Bay, otherwise the Purple may be riding an eight game win streak. Expect the Vikes to hold onto the ball today and the Giants to give minimum effort.

Pick: Minnesota 35 N.Y. Giants 16

Clevleand at Pittsburgh (-11)

Cleveland hasn't scored an offensive touchdown their last five games. The Steelers love to run up the score when they can. This will be ugly.

Pick: Pittsburgh 31 Cleveland 6

Washington at San Francisco (-3)

The Redskins banded together and gave their best effort since Week 5 in upsetting the Eagles 10-3 last week. Yes, a 10-3 win was their best effort. In fact, the 'Skins are averaging just 10 ppg in their last seven. Fat and happy after a win and with nothing to play for, the will get stomped in San Fran by Mike Singeltary and the scrappy Niners.

Pick: San Francisco 27 Washington 13

Upset sepcial: Seattle (+250) at Arizona

Other than a home win over the Rams, the Cardinals have been beaten down the last four weeks. They will be motivated to head into the playoffs on a positive note. However, they'll have to do so against one of the best 4-11 teams in history (Insult/praise? I'm not sure). After being outyardaged by 100+ virtually the entire season, they have turned things around going 3-0 ATS and 2-1 SU in their last three. Seneca Wallace and Mo Morris are taking the offense in the right direction and they should continue to gash the beleaguered Cards D. Also, look for a 'Hawks defensive play to score or set up a short offensive score.

Pick: Seattle 23 Arizona 13

Lockdown: I give you these picks, Merry Christmas

After a horrid November, I am back on a roll, in the midst of a 5-0-1 run ATS the past two weeks. I did miss the Niners to win outright last week, but at least they came close, and even outyardaged Miami. Good thing I've been so hot because I'm about to stand out in the cold for six hours at Fed Ex this afternoon. By the way, I'm calling for an (under)Dog Day Afternoon.

Cincinnati (+3) at Cleveland

I remember another cold afternoon I spent in the football stands about five years ago. I witnessed Ken Dorsey throw terrible pass after terrible pass against a terrible Rutgers squad. Somehow, he's in the NFL and starting for the Browns, who haven't scored an offensive touchdown in a month.

Even the Bengals should be able to beat this banged-up Browns team, who will also be missing Winslow and Heiden. Don't actually watch this game, just lock it down.

Pick: Cincinnati 20 Cleveland 9

N.Y. Jets at Seattle (+4)

It's been a pretty horrible year for the 3-11 Seahawks. But Seneca Wallace is improving each week and they've played tough their last three at home. Meanwhile, the Jets are 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS since they exposed the Titans last month. Look for the 'Hawks to take this one in a wintry mix.

Pick: Seattle 24 N.Y. Jets 14

Upset Special: Buffalo (+230) at Denver

Trent Edwards is back and I think the Bills would like to turn it up one last time this season and get a win. Denver is wildly inconsistent, and they seem to play down to the competition. Plus, divine justice would make make Denver lose this game so San Diego has a chance to get the division back after that blown call in week two.

Pick: Buffalo 31 Denver 24

--Nate

Lockdown: December gold edition

Atlanta (-3)
San Francisco to win outright (+240)
Minnesota/Arizona over 47
Washington/Cincy under 36.5

--Nate

Can high school kids in Baltimore play football? Looks like Terps don't think so.

By Nate Sandstrom

The Baltimore Sun put out their all-Metro football teams today, and guess ho may of the first team offense and defense the paper reports are going to Maryland?

Answer: one.

Offensive Player of the Year Tavon Austin has said he is considering Maryland, but last week said West Virginia is the front-runner.

On the Terps' current roster of 125 players, just 13 players are from the Baltimore metro area (I'm including Columbia).

I'm not informed enough to know whether this is a good or bad thing; but I do find it interesting. For as much guff as Gary Williams gets for letting B-more hoops players get away, I haven't heard much about football coach Ralph Friedgen not getting B-more gridiron recruits.

Nate's Power Ratings: Dec. 10

Was it just two weeks ago that many power ratings around the Web were putting the Giants and Jets in the top two slots? Now the Jets have lost back-to-back games, and the Titans team the Jets pounded has moved ahead of the Giants in most ratings. Even though they just lost at home to the Eagles, who recently tied the Bengals, who are 1-11-1.

Perhaps it's good to remind myself how quick things can change in the NFL. As the Redskins have slid from 6-2 to 7-6, I need something to believe in. I need to give up the smack talk songs. Portis and Zorn need to hug it out. Zorn needs to consider redrawing all blocking schemes, and oh yeah, sign about four offensive linemen. The 'skins still need a new punter (not Plackemeier) to replace the just-fine Derrick Frost, who was cut in preseason. The kicker should have been cut. Washington's second-round draft pick receivers need to make more plays.

Yet, despite all this doom and gloom, they could still make the playoffs. Last year, they rallied from 5-7 to get in; in 2005, they rallied from 5-6 to make it. Now, their remaining schedule has them at Cincinnati, vs. Philadelphia and at San Francisco, all winnable games.

But I don't think they will win out. Speaking of that, I'm predicting you'll need 11 wins to get in to the NFC playoffs, but you never know.

After reviewing the schedules, here's what I'm projecting for playoff seeding:
NFC
1. N.Y. Giants (12-4)
2. Carolina (12-4)
3. Arizona (10-6)
4. Minnesota (9-7)
5. Tampa Bay (11-5)
6. Atlanta (11-5)
AFC
1. Tennessee (14-2)
2. Pittsburgh (12-4)
3. New England (11-5)
4. Denver (9-7)
5. N.Y. Jets (10-6)
6. Indianapolis (10-6)

Sorry, Ravens fans, projected losses to Pittsburgh and Dallas put you via tiebreaker, as they lose for having worse strength of victory than Jets and head-to-head loss to Colts.

Now, onto the power ratings. Not much change from last week.
Team (W-L, last week)
1. N.Y. Giants (11-2, 1). Dropped passes lead to concerns. Can you answer this question?
2. Tennessee (12-1, 2). Will face a Houston team with backs against the wall this weekend.
3. Pittsburgh (10-3, 3). Talk about finding a way to win, will they carry the mo' next week.
4. Carolina (10-3, 4). Remember when Steve Smith fight was supposed to derail this team?
5. Tampa Bay (9-4, 5). Still in great playoff position.
6. Dallas (8-5, 6). Sure, Jerry. It's Barber's fault.
7. Indianapolis (9-4, 7). Finally, a blowout win. Now they get Detroit.
8. Baltimore (9-4, 8). Getting the stretchers ready for this weekend.
9. Arizona (8-5, 12). Can't believe they didn't have the decency to let the Niners keep it close.
10. New England (8-5, 15). Beat the Seahawks on a day other teams wouldn't have.
11. Philadelphia (7-5-1, 16). Remember when their season was over?
12. Miami (8-5, 17). Unheralded defense needs to keep it up to get 'Phins in postseason.
13. Denver (8-5, 9). Finally, Raiders and Chiefs off their schedule.
14. Atlanta (8-5, 10). How will young team respond to pressure-filled stretch run?
15. Minnesota (8-5, 11). That Lions game was way too close. Again.
16. N.Y. Jets (8-5, 14). This ship is sinking fast, but should get in if they beat Buffalo, Miami.
17. Houston (6-7, 20). Great run, but started too far in the hole.
18. Green Bay (5-8, 19). Let too many games get away, in deep hole now (said this last week too).
19. Chicago (7-6, 21). Offense showed some spark last week.
20. New Orleans (7-6, 18). Tough to know where they'll go this offseason.
21. San Francisco (5-8, 22). Things are turning around fast. Is Shaun Hill MVP?
22. Washington (7-6, 13). See above.
23. Buffalo (6-7, 23). Shaun King. Patrick Ramsey. J.P. Losman. The next Tulane NFL QB?
24. San Diego (5-8, 24). Almost sure Cutler fumble in Week 2 will cost them division.
25. Seattle (2-11, 26). The best damned 2-11 team in history.
26. Jacksonville (4-9, 25). Is Garrard really better than Leftwhich was?
27. Cleveland (4-9, 27). I'm flashing back to watching Dorsey at Miami nearly losing to Rutgers.
28. Oakland (3-10, 28). Does anyone have JaMarcus Russell's cell phone number?
29. Kansas City (2-11, 29). May actually beat Bengals, move back in draft.
30. St. Louis (2-11, 30). Remember when they beat Dallas and Washington?
31. Cincinnati (1-11-1, 31). Why bother?
32. Detroit (0-13, 12). Every team wins once, right? Update this week: Not anymore.

A writer converting back to my anti-playoff side

From SI.
--Nate