Lockdown: Week 4

By Nate Sandstrom

With Missouri having just destroyed Nevada early Saturday, my lockdown picks were 5-1 for the year. An Auburn flub that night and a Vikings collapse a day later, my picks are suddenly a pedestrian 5-3.

Add to that my near miss on UL-Monroe at +450 two weeks ago and the upset special is now 0-3.

Update standings for Mark and I:

Lockdown:
Nate: 5-3 (+170)
Mark 5-2 (+280)

Upset Special:
Nate: 0-3 (-300)
Mark: 1-1 (+110)

Toss-Up
Nate leads Mark 1-0

Onto this weeks picks, which by total coincidence almost totally involve the Tar Heel state. I've also thrown in a bonus pick in an effort to boost my record.

East Carolina (-7) at N.C. State

After narrowly avoiding a loss to Tulane, it looks like the public may be wavering on how good the Pirates actually are. Now that Virginia Tech has looked poor in two games following their opening loss to East Carolina, and West Virginia has lost again, perhaps it's understandable.

But don't fail to notice how bad N.C. State may be. They've been outyardaged by 140 or more in their last three against Division 1-A opponents, going back to last year's 37-0 shutout against Maryland. The Wolfpack won this match-up last year in a game also thought ECU would win, but I think this year the Pirates keep their bid for a BCS Bowl alive.

Pick: East Carolina 27 N.C. State 7

North Carolina (-3) vs. Virginia Tech

The Tar Heels haven't had a winning football team since 2001, but they may have put the nation on notice that they are back after whipping Rutgers in New Jersey 44-12 last weekend. UNC was actually outyardaged by Rutgers, as well as McNeese State in the opener, but their big play capability has Butch Davis' squad back on the map.

Meanwhile, a team know for big plays, Virginia Tech, has certainly lacked them this season. The QB controversy is in full effect as Glennon and Taylor have thrown 1 TD combined. They were outyardaged by 14o in their narrow home win against Ga. Tech last week and I expect the offense to continue their struggles.

Pick: North Carolina 31 Virginia Tech 16

Alabama (-9) at Arkansas

If you've been reading the blog this year, you'd notice that I think the 'Hogs may be one of the most overrated teams in the nation. I called for them to be defeated at home by both 1-AA Western Illinois and two-touchdown 'dog UL-Monroe. Late rallies prevented both picks from coming true, but there will be no rally against the Tide, who are allowing less than 8 ppg.

Pick: Alabama 37 Arkansas 13

Carolina (+3) at Minnesota

Disregard everything I said about the Vikings in this week's faceoff. Sharper, Peterson and Berrian are questionable this week. Rice is doubtful. Frerotte is the starter. Childress is an idiot. Even a time with this much talent in the trenches can't overcome this situation.

Pick: Carolina 20 Minnesota 10

Upset Special: Boise State (+320) at Oregon

As much success as Boise State has had over the past decade, they've never won a road game against a BCS team. But Oregon's QB situation is up in the air again, and we all remember what happened after Dixon went down last year. I'm guessing Oregon will still put points on the board, but costly turnovers will do them in.

Pick: Boise State 37 Oregon 34

Lockdown

Well, I took the lead in my picks pool last week going 7-3 in weekend college football action. Here are my locks for the weekend, one for each day. I am not responsible for your mortgage payment. Picking three favorites doesn't bode well.

Rutgers (-15.5) vs. Navy
Rutgers won at Navy 34-0 last year. Navy only beat Temple 30-19 last week, although they did out-yardage the Owls by 166 yards.
The Scarlet Knights should be focused. This game is sandwiched between Buffalo and Norfolk St.
Rutgers 35 Navy 14

Nebraska (-8) at Wake Forest
Nebraska won 31-3 in ’05 meeting, but game was closer than the score (3 defensive TDs on turnovers) and the drop off from injured Wake QB Riley Skinner to Brett Hodges may not be too much.
But Nebraska looked scary good against Nevada, and the Wake defense against an overrated BC squad? Not so much.
Nebraska 41 Wake Forest 21

Dallas (-6) vs. N.Y. Giants
I think Dallas is the most overrated team in the league. This is how little I think of the Giants.
The last two between have been high-scoring affairs, but I foresee defense playing a bigger role in this game. I don’t know how the Giants are going to move the ball without Tiki, who clearly knows everything.
If it matters, I’m going against a trend of the Giants covering in their last three trips to Dallas.
Dallas 20 N.Y. Giants 6

Upset Special
N.C. State (+14.5) at Boston College
Yes, they lost to C. Florida. Yes, they lost Toney Baker and Anthony Hill for the season. But I love former coaches taking on their old team.
Tom O’Brien returns to Alumni Stadium wearing Wolfpack Red, with a team that edged a much better B.C. team on a 34-yd TD pass with eight seconds left last year.
N.C. State’s rush defense got gouged last week, but running the ball is not exactly the Eagles strength.
N.C. State 27 Boston College 24

--Nate Sandstrom