NFL Power Ratings: October 24

By Nate Sandstrom
According to my preseason picks, the Chargers were to meet the Saints in the Super Bowl; however, with these two teams combining for eight losses it looks like a team playing a regular season game in London may never go to a Super Bowl. This week's power ratings spot some other trends.

1. Tennessee (6-0, ranked 1 last week). Collins is 2-0 vs. teams he played in 2000 playoffs.
2. N.Y. Giants (5-1, 2). 0-1 ATS in week following home game against West Coast team.
3. Washington (5-2, 3). 0-1 SU this year against winless teams with 4+ losses.
4. Buffalo (5-1, 6). 0-1 SU when first-round draft picks quarterback majority of team's snaps.
5. Tampa Bay (5-2, 4). Face former MVP QB Brad Johnson, who is 3-1 SU against teams he previously played for.
6. Carolina (5-2, 10). 4-0 SU and 3-0-1 ATS at home this year. Tough to win homefield for playoffs when you are 1-2 on the road.
7. Pittsburgh (5-1, 9). 5-1 SU in the season that occurs after a Pittsburgh resident is jailed for impersonating players in football/towel-crazy town.
8. Arizona (4-2, 5). Cards are 1-8 ATS the last nine in Week 8. Objection, relevance? Overruled.
9. San Diego (3-4, 7). 3-3-1 ATS this year. Man, does Norv make good teams mediocre.
10. New England (4-2, 18). Were 6-0 ATS at this point last year.
11. Chicago (4-3, 14). Undefeated ATS this season when giving up 40+ points.
12. Philadelphia (3-3, 12). 3-0 ATS this season when Akers drinks from the Fountain of Youth before the game.
13. New Orleans (3-4 , 11). Now 11-12 SU since being considered Super Bowl contenders.
14. Jacksonville (3-3, 17). 1-0 ATS since Matt Jones sentenced to drug court, not prison.
15. Dallas (4-3, 8). Lost last two SU, see 2000 Redskins; Brad Johnson was on that team too.
16. Atlanta (4-2, 13). 3-0 ATS on turf this year. Why don't they play Philly at the Vet?
17. Green Bay (4-3, ). 1-0 ATS in games when Favre tries to coach opponents.
18. Baltimore (3-3, 21). Ravens are 3-0 ATS when Flacco does not throw a pick. Raiders DBs have seven picks thus far; so does Flacco.
19. Denver (4-3, 19). 1-0 ATS when ref Ed Hochuli forgets where he is and what is going on while calling games.
20. N.Y. Jets (3-3, 16). 2-7 last nine ATS vs. teams with losing records. Now play KC, which has nearly the losingest record.
21. Minnesota (3-4, 26). Undefeated ATS under Coach Childress when game counts for nothing.
22. Miami (2-4, 20). 2-0 SU against teams in 2007 AFC title game. 0-4 SU against teams not in that game. Have just one game left vs. teams in that game.
23. Cleveland (2-4, 22). 4-2 ATS this year, which clearly makes the money worth it.
24. Houston (2-4, 24). 1-0 when you use the teaser in games in which Sage Rosenfels starts.
25. Indianapolis (3-3, 15). Should be 1-5.
26. San Francisco (2-5 , 25). Teams who've changed coaches during this season are 3-1 ATS under new direction.
27. St. Louis (2-4, 30). 2-0 ATS under Haslett; also 2-0 ATS against Dallas ans Washington when they give the ball to St. Louis D three or more times a game.
28. Oakland (1-5, 27). Nice kick in OT last week, but Raiders are still 0-1 ATS when attempting FG over 70 yards.
29. Kansas City (1-5, 28). 0-5 SU when not playing Denver run defense.
30. Seattle (1-5, 29). 1-0 ATS when Seneca Wallace starts.
31. Cincinnati (0-7, 31). Does it really matter?
32. Detroit (0-6, 32). Won last 2 ATS, proof the curse of Bobby Layne has ended.

Heimsan Watch: Boy, is Javon Ringer out of this thing

By Nate Sandstrom

Well, as soon as I went against the national tide and put Javon Ringer on top and Colt McCoy third, this past Saturday reminded me again that I may be an idiot(.blogspot.com).

The same Ohio State team that nearly lost to Wisconsin two weeks ago held Ringer to 69 yards and kept the nation's leading scorer out of the end zone in a 45-7 romp. Ringer #1, err.... wrong.

Meanwhile, young Colt McCoy completes 29 of 32 passes (not a typo), runs for 2 TDs and throws for 2 more in the biggest game of the day. Needless to say, I have a new #1.

Sorry, Iowa RB Shonn Greene, stats accumulated against the Wisconsin D don't count. Illinois QB Juice Williams, that applies to you this weekend.

I changed up the links this week to bring you to hype Web sites rather than stat pages. Enjoy!

1. Colt McCoy, Jr., QB, Texas (Last week: 3rd). Smart and athletic, according to this Web site. What a catch!
2. Sam Bradford, QB, Oklahoma. (Not ranked). Follows up loss to Texas with 468-yard effort. And has the same Web site design as Colt McCoy. Pretty much guarentees they will be 1/2 in the voting.
3. Dez Bryant, Soph., WR, Oklahoma St. (Not ranked). Posts his second 200-yard game of the season in advance of match-up with Texas. Be his friend.
4. Scott McKillop, Sr., LB, Pitt. (5th). Piles up five tackles quicker than it takes my computer to load his Pitt Web site. How about a wiki Web page. Make up your own stories, then make them come true a la tonight's Always Sunny in Philadelphia.
5. Chase Daniel, Sr., QB, Missouri. (4th). Drops a spot for second straight loss and his Web site's failure to mention that Mizzou lost at Texas.

ESPN's poll here. HeismanPundit's here.

Coverage delayed

I have two back-to-back h-e-double-hockey-stickish days so all content is to be updated on Thursday.

--Nate

FBS Rankings: Oct. 20

By Nate Sandstrom

I thought Texas was ripe for a fall this weekend, but boy was I wrong. The Horns' 8-touchdown showcase in a 56-31 romp over Mizzou has me moving them over Penn State this week.

I still have the Lions #2 ahead of Alabama, who for the second straight week held on for a narrow victory. Still, an SEC win is an SEC win so that keeps the Tide at #3.

Now the biggest question will be what would happen if my #4 Oklahoma State (#6 BCS) were to upset the 'Horns in Austin, though that doesn't seem likely to happen.

Elsewhere in the poll, Ohio State jumps back into the rankings after demolishing Michigan State. Meanwhile, Tulsa may be looking for a BCS bid as they move up the rankings; however, they also need Utah to lose in the Mountain West.

1. Texas (7-0, 2). Won the biggest game of the week back-to-back. Now for one more.
2. Penn State (8-0, 1). Need a big win over suddenly resurgent Buckeyes this week.
3. Alabama (7-0, 3). Should still be able to handle Vols on Saturday, who come off best game.
4. Oklahoma St. (7-0, 4). Have confidence to beat Texas, but not sure about talent.
5. Oklahoma (6-1, 5). Actually fourth in Big 12 South standings.
6. Florida (6-1, 6). Tebow looks to keep last breakout game going.
7. Georgia (6-1, 8). Next two weeks (at LSU, vs. Florida) will decide title hopes.
8. LSU (5-1, 9). Loads of talent but no easy wins since mid-Septemer.
9. USC (5-1, 10). Still in BCS race with SEC and Big 12 teams playing each other.
10. Texas Tech (7-0, 11). You have to give them credit for wining.
11. Utah (8-0, 15). This may not last; have to beat TCU and BYU still.
12. Missouri (5-2, 7). Will still get to Big 12 title game.
13. Pittsburgh (5-1, 20). Opening loss to Bowling Green cost them a spot in the Top 10.
14. Ohio State (7-1, NR). Looked like Ohio State of old for first time all year. Now get Penn St.
15. Tulsa (7-0, 16). Tulsa just scored on UTEP again.
16. Boise State (6-0, 17). Wish they were playing one more BCS team to get a gauge.
17. Ball State (7-0, 18). MAC West may be better than half of Big Ten.
18. South Florida (6-1, 21). Selvie's back, but Bulls now need Pitt to lose.
19. Vanderbilt (5-2, 23). Move up via good effort at Gerogia.
20. Sotuh Carolina (5-3, 24). Replace Ole Miss as best 3-loss team in nation.
21. Kansas (5-2, 22). Played better than I expected at Oklahoma.
22. Boston College (5-1, NR). How does this team always win?
23. Cincinnati (5-1, NR). Only loss is Oklahoma, can backup QB keep them in it?
24. TCU (7-1, NR). Showed BYU who was better 3-letter school.
25. Kentucky (5-2, NR). Underrated, stout defense keeps them competing against anyone.

Other rankings.

Week 8 Jessup Lockdown

I, like Nate, suffered my first slaughter last weekend. But those are too be expected. Market corrections, we'll call them. Think of this week's picks as buying low! Apparently that is supposed to make you feel better. With that theme in mind, my first pick is a low spread:

Wake Forest (-2) at Maryland
The conventional wisdom around Maryland is that they play down to their lesser competition and get up for the big games. I'm not sure I'm a believer in that. I think Cal just came to town and played a horrible game and the time differential really hurt them. The one thing that would concern me in this pick is that the Terps clearly play better at home, averaging 43 points scored at home and only 11.3 on the road! However, Wake Forest is a good road team (2-0) with a good defense that is only allowing 15 points a game. Take Wake and give the 2. They'll put another nail in Maryland's slowly built coffin Wake 24 - MD 12

Texas (-4.5) vs Missouri
Look for the markets to finally settle this week and a #1 won't get knocked off. The Tigers have only played one road game this year. Yes, they won by 35 in Nebraska, but I look at Texas as the more tested team and therefore their numbers and performance is more reliable. They won't look ahead the way other #1s have this year. Texas 41 - Missouri 30

Tampa Bay (-10.5) vs. Seattle
Finally, I'm getting on Tampa's bandwagon. Let's hope I'm not buying high. Look, Seattle is losing its games by an average of 18.5 points. Tampa Bay is winning its games by an average of 10. Tampa is a superior home team. Seattle is traveling across the country, 1-4 against the spread, and the last time they came east against a good NFC team, they lost 44-6. Tampa 35 - Seattle 21

Upset Special
Iowa State (+7.5) vs. Nebraska
Iowa State has played a tough schedule with three of the last four on the road. Nebraska has only had to play on the road once and that was last week. So now they have two in a row on the road. Both teams are on a downslide and one of them has to recover. This will be a battle of the wills and I like the home team to come out on top. Iowa State 24 - Nebraska 21

Lockdown: Week 8 Edition

By Nate Sandstrom

Early last Saturday I was talking to my buddy Jim Butts and he commented how well I was doing on lockdown. Clearly he was trying to jinx me because I went 1-4 for the weekend. At least that was better than Mark, although he beat me in the Texas-Oklahoma toss-up.

Follow me at your own risk, but I will hope to bounce back. In Denver for a wedding this weekend so you get a rushed edition as I get ready for my flight. I'm banking on more top-ranked teams being upset, and not just because I want to be proved right by putting Penn State #1 this week. To keep that thought going, I'm starting with the upset special:

Mississippi (+375) at Alabama

The Rebels are the best damned 3-3 team in the nation. Their three losses are by a combined 15 points. That close game experience will pay off this week and they will pull their second upset of a Top 10 and previously undefeated team.

Alabama's in the midst of the weakest part of the schedule and this is the perfect spot for them to so complacency. I know I took this same theory in taking Kentucky over 'bama, but get this one in quick, the payoff is falling like a rock.

Pick: Mississippi 31 Alabama 29

Missouri at Texas (-4.5)

Always take the team with their backs against the wall, right? Does that still apply when you're going with a team that hasn't won in Austin since the 1890's? Chalk last week up to a look-ahead game for Missouri and the last century of their trips to Texas as a look-ahead century. Serioulsy though, Missouri is really good and Texas is fat and happy after beating Oklahoma. The Tigers will be motivated to stay in the national title hunt while the 'Horns will have a short stay at #1. Don't worry Texas fans, you should have a crack at the #2 OSU Pokes the next week.

Pick: Missouri 35 Texas 28

Georgia Tech (-2) at Clemson

How did that mid-season coaching change work out for Auburn (the only game we had right here at lockdown) last week? Poor Tommy Bowden? Sure, Georgia Tech was outyardaged by Gardner-Webb and barely won, but chalk that up as a look ahead they still won. Clemson has a new QB, a new coach and Spiller is out.

Pick: Georgia Tech 27 Clemson 13

Minnesota at Chicago (-3)

A-Pete should top 100 yards, but count on the Bears sacking Gus Frerotte at least four times. Devin Hester will torch the Vikes again and I will put Kyle Orton on next week's first edition of MVP Watch.

Pick: Chicago 26 Minnesota 14

Wo!

The Detroit Lions have been outyardaged by 170+ per game.

NFL Power Ratings Oct. 16: A day late, a dollar short

By Nate Sandstrom
After the NFC East went 1-3 over the weekend everything I thought I knew about the order of the NFL is gone. Talking to a few people at the bar last night, it seems like no one can easily identify who they think the top five teams in the league are.

Here's my crack, they it may be the least confident I've ever been in these rankings.

(W-L, previous rank)
1. Tennessee (5-0, 4 ). By virtue of being last unbeaten.
2. N.Y. Giants (4-1, 1). Is old Eli back or was it just a bad day?
3. Washington (4-2, 2). They won Rams game in every way but the score.
4. Tampa Bay (4-2, 9). Two drives from 6-0.
5. Arizona (4-2, 18). Two wins against my top 10.
6. Buffalo (4-1, 8). Bye week was well-timed.
7. San Diego (3-3, 10). Finally beat the Pats.
8. Dallas (4-2, 3). Could the team of destiny finish last in the NFC East?
9. Pittsburgh (4-1, 6). Practically clinched AFC North already.
10. Carolina (4-2, 5). Hey, one loss in six years at Tampa ain't that bad.
11. New Orleans (3-3, 19). Just wait 'til Brees gets Colston and Shockey back.
12. Philadelphia (3-3, 12). Whose career is ending faster, David Akers or Matt Stover?
13. Atlanta (4-2, 24). Can't believe I'm doing this, but they've earned this spot.
14. Chicago (3-3, 7). Hester starting to produce on offense.
15. Indianapolis (3-2, 22). Nice win vs. Ravens, but I don't take that much from it.
16. N.Y. Jets (3-2, 17). Definitely in the playoff hunt.
17. Jacksonville (3-3, 13). Up and down unless they keep it on the ground.
18. New England (3-2, 16). Belichick is a gen.... oh, never mind.
19. Denver (4-2, 11). Fast start ending quickly.
20. Miami (2-3, 15). All this Wildcat talk. They did lose to the Texans.
21. Baltimore (2-3, 14). Four of next five on the road. Need to win two of them.
22. Cleveland (2-3 29). Thought preseason was eight games, not four.
23. Green Bay (3-3, 20). Peaked in Week 2.
24. Houston (1-4, 28). Now they got the first one out of the way will they keep it going?
25. San Francisco (2-4, 23). O'Sullivan was throwing the ball like punts in fourth against Iggs.
26. Minnesota (3-3, 21). Strangely, are likely to be in first if they somehow win at Chicago.
27. Oakland (1-4, 26). Who cares?
28. Kansas City (1-4, 27). Ditto.
29. Seattle (1-4, 25). Watch out for the Seneca Wallace/Charlie Frye platoon.
30. St. Louis (1-4, 32). Enjoy that win Rams, it may be their last this year.
31. Cincinnati (0-6, 30 ). Why does anyone still cover what Chad Johnson says?
32. Detroit (0-5, 31). Look Kitna, Greise got hurt and Garcia's playing so maybe you have hope.

Heisman Watch: Oct. 14, 2008

By Nate Sandstrom

I don't know who to put at the top of my mock ballot this week. I figured it would be easy, with the winning QB of the Oklahoma-Texas taking the top spot. However, I kind of feel like Texas WR Jordan Shipley was the true star of the biggest game of the season thus far. I can't put Shipley in yet though because he doesn't rank among the leaders in any major state categories.

Still Texas QB Colt McCoy took the lead this week at Heisman Pundit and at ESPN's poll. However, he held a narrow edge over losing Oklahoma QB Sam Bradford who still tossed 5 TDs.

Meanwhile, the leading favorite at most polls, Chase Daniel, accounted for 450 yards against a now Top 10 team but also threw 3 picks in a 3-point home loss.

The Big 12 will be home to the next Heisman Bowl — Heisman Bowl 2008 II — when Daniel and Missouri head to Texas to take on McCoy and Texas.

Yet, I'm turning to the Big 10 for the top of this week's ballot. Michigan State RB Javon Ringer takes the lead after a big-time showing in a road win at previously undefeated Northwestern. Meanwhile, the QB of my now-#1 Penn State, Daryll Clark, joins the watch for the first time after he led the Lions to a 48-7 thrashing of my Badgers.

Pitt senior LB Scott McKillop also joins the watch off a bye week. McKillop moves in based on monster show in upset of South Florida two weeks ago and David Johnson barely leading Tulsa past SMU this week.

On another note, North Carolina WR and super retunrer Brandon Tate, a longshot for the Heisman but a favorite of mine, is out for the year after injuring his knee on a punt return on Saturday. He averaged nearly 22 yards everytime he touched the ball.

This week's vote:

1. Javon Ringer, Sr., RB, Michigan State. 158.9 ypg rushing (#2 nationally), 14 TD's (#1).
2. Daryll Clark, Sr., QB, Penn St. 160.6 passer rating (#11), 10TD/2 Int. 145 yads rushing, 6 TDs.
3. Colt McCoy, Jr., QB, Texas. 189 passer rating (#4), 79.3 % completion, 17/3. 348 rush, 4 TDs.
4. Chase Daniel, Sr. , QB, Missouri. 180.5 rating (#5), 76% completion, 16/4 ratio.
5. Scott McKillop, Sr., LB, Pitt. 7.4 solo tackles per game (#2), 1.8 TFL per game (#6).

Top 25 Rankings — Oct. 13

By Nate Sandstrom
Well, this was the first weekend where the national championship race has really begun taking shape. If either Penn State, Texas or Alabama finish undefeated they should have a go chance of going to the national title game. I consider all three essentially tied for #1, but Penn State's continued dominance of their opponents gets them the top spot.

Meanwhile, my #4, Oklahoma State, got jobbed in the national polls. They are at #8 in the AP and #10 in the USA Today despite winning on the road at #3 Missouri. They honestly might have had a better win than Texas. Another victim of not having pre-season hype. Texas Tech barely got past Nebraska at home, yet remain ahead of the Cowboys in both polls.

The rest of the rankings (record, previous rank):

1. Penn State (7-0, 5). Easiest road of all contenders the rest of the way.
2. Texas (6-0, 6). Little time to celebrate as their next 3 against Mizzou, Ok. St. and Tex. Tech.
3. Alabama (6-0, 2). Tide get leaped by virtue of UGa. barely beating Tennessee.
4. Oklahoma St. (6-0, 4). Will Mike Gundy blame the media when they finally lose? He's 41.
5. Oklahoma (5-1, 1). Can get right back in it if they run the table in stacked Big 12.
6. Florida (5-1, 11). Tebow finally gets it going.
7. Missouri (5-1, 3). Win at Texas would put them right back in title contention.
8. Georgia (5-1, 10). You'd like to see them blow somebody out before the really move up.
9. LSU (4-1, 4). Followed losses last year with near losses.
10. USC (4-1, 9). Still have another loss in them.
11. Texas Tech (6-0, 7). Overtime win vs. Nebraska only slightly better than loss.
12. BYU (6-0, 14). Thursday trip to TCU will be key to national opinion of Cougars.
13. California (4-1, 20). Undefeated in Pacific Time Zone.
14. Michigan State (6-1, 22). Smelling Roses in East Lansing.
15. Utah (7-0, 15). They beat Oregon St. and USC didn't; beat Mich. by less than Toledo did.
16. Tulsa (6-0, 16). Easy schedule, yes. Better than last year Hawaii though.
17. Boise State (5-0, 17). Outside shot at BCS still.
18. Ball State (7-0, 18). All games in November on national TV; could help Cards move up.
19. Virginia Tech (5-1, 19). Top 10 without ECU loss.
20. Pitt (4-1, 21). Control destiny for BCS bid.
21. S. Florida (5-1, 23). Will they collapse following a loss like last year?
22. Kansas (5-1, 24). Should start trying in the first quarter too.
23. Vanderbilt (5-1, 8). They can't finish 5-7, right?
24. South Carolina (5-2, 25). May be Tiger food in LSU's rebound- game this week.
25. North Carolina (5-1, NR). QB injury against VT cost them shot at undefeated season, and maybe division title.

The Burgundy and Gold? Don't worry about them.

By Nate Sandstrom
Following a 19-17 home loss to the previously winless Rams, Clinton Portis was among those quick to write off the loss as a situation where the Redskins fell victim to the so-called "trap" game.

"The headlines got good. We were saying 'Yeah, we're here.' We've got three games we can win," Portis told reporters at a press conference. "And we overlooked a team today that came in here ready to play," Portis said.

However, some other Redskins players, and I, could not disagree more. They lost because of three critical turnovers, poor pass blocking at times and horrendous punting.

On the first count, fumbles happen. It is rare that a pass is going to be deflected, your guard is going to catch it and then fumble it, and then the defense is going to recover it and run it back 80 yards for a TD. All that happened and that was the difference in the game.

Of course the fact that the Rams D-line was able to penetrate the line and tip Campbell's pass spoke to some of the larger pass blocking problems Washington had yesterday. And by Washington I mean Jon Jansen.

Jansen has been a great Redskin and I really like him. But he clearly lacks the quickness he once possessed and keeps getting beat to the outside too much, like the time the Rams sacked Campbell on 3rd and 1. Heyer will probably miss another week though before he can reclaim the starting spot.

Meanwhile, craptacular punter Durant Brooks could be replaced or put on IR. The Redskins will hold auditions this week. I don't know why they didn't just keep Derrick Frost.

So anyway, the upshot of all this is the punting situation will be dealt with and Heyer will be back in another week. The Redskins outyardaged the Rams 368-200 and had a 22-8 edge in first downs. The Cowboys lost this week anyway and it looks like Eli Manning is back to his old self. Washington should still finish with at least 10 wins.

Meanwhile, Ladell Betts is out for possibly two weeks, and Shaun Alexander apparently came in for a workout.

Mark's Week 7 NFL-Exclusive Jessup Lockdown

Because #1's in college football are falling faster than the Dow Jones, I'm investing this week's locks in a more conservative NFL stock, where my father and his father made their money. By the way, is anyone what its going to be like when the financial crisis hits home and families realize ten grand for a PSL and $1,000 for tickets just isn't in the budget and stadiums stop selling out and games get blacked out? Anyway, on that positive note, I invite you to get rich quick and take the following picks:

Carolina (+1.5) at Tampa Bay:
Carolina is back. It took me a while to be willing to say that after their week one escape in San Diego. Delhomme is back in form, completing a solid 60% of his passes for a 90 passer rating. Carolina has won 8 of the last 10 matchups outright against Tampa Bay. And the underdog is 8-2 in those meetings. Carolina 23, Tampa Bay 17

Baltimore (+4) at Indy
This, too, is not a homer pick. I don't expect the outright win, but I certainly expect Baltimore to be competetive. I know Manning versus Flacco doesn't sound good, but I'm looking at McClain and McGahee vs. Colts D. Indy is giving up a whopping 188 yards of rushing per game! Baltimore is running for 153 per game. Indy is only rushing for 67 yards per game and Baltimore is only giving up 63 on the ground. If the Colts are going to win, they're going to have to throw the ball against the Ravens' weakened secondary, but look for the Ravens to throw him off his game with lots of pressure. If Matt Stover wasn't 0-3 in field goals over 40 yards, I'd pick Baltimore for the outright win. Colts 21, Ravens 20.

Chicago (-3) at Atlanta
Matt Ryan has been better than I expected, but look for him to be put on his back this week. He's been carried by Michael Turner all year and when Turner gets stuffed by the Chicago D, how will Ryan fare? Not well. Look for a runaway game against my pet Falcons. Chicago 34, Falcons 10.

Sorry, no upset special this week. I don't have much faith in Cincy, St. Louis or Detroit. You'll get extra picks next week. Good luck.

Lockdown: Week 7 or Return of the toss-up

By Nate Sandstrom and Mark Goldman

Mark and I haven't gone head-to-head on a game since Labor Day, but in honor of this year's second Game of the Century, we are going to chime in on this year's Red River Shootout.

Oklahoma (-6.5) vs. Texas

Nate says:

So both teams have stud QB's, are stocked with highly-touted recruits and have blown teams that should be playing in bowl games at the end of the year but are still looking for that signature win that can keep them at #1.

However, go inside the numbers and you will see that Texas' secondary may be vulnerable. The 'Horns have not out-passed an opponent by more than 40 yards this season. Their last five games last year they were out-passed by 130 yards or more!

Skies will be party cloudy and temperatures around 80 degrees today, and that kind of passing weather should prove the difference in a 28-17 Sooners win.

Mark says:

Though the lock of the week seems to be the over in this game, give me Texas (+6.5). Both QBs are playing out of their minds this year, but I always prefer accuracy and there's nothing like a QB who is completing 79% of his passes. These two teams are pretty evenly matched up, both 5-0 with potent offenses and close season stats. So in a big game, give me the more accurate QB and the points. It doesn't hurt that Oklahoma is giving up almost 50 yards per game on the ground more than Texas, who already rushes for 198 yards per game. Nobody is staying on top long this year and watch Oklahoma be the next to fall in the outright loss today.

Now, onto updated standings.

Lockdown:
Nate: 11-8 (+220)
Mark: 6-4 (+160)

Upset Special:
Nate: 2-4 (+320)
Mark: 1-2 (+10)

Toss-Up:
Nate leads 1-0

This week's lockdown:

Nate says:


St. Louis at Washington (-13.5)

This is not a homer pick. Almost everyone I've talked to this week has been scared off laying 13.5, it's a Tom Brady-Patriots' kind of number. But I say it is justified.

The Rams have been outscored by 26 points a game. Their closest loss is a 17-point home loss to Buffalo. So why would they cover this number? Because the man who has led this hapless defense, Jim Haslett, has taken over as interim coach for an 0-4 team?

Last week was the let down spot for Washington, not this week. 'Skins will roll and keep the Rams winless.

Pick: Washington 38 St. Louis 10

N. Y. Giants (-7.5) at Cleveland

For all the credit that Eli Manning has gotten since New York's Super Bowl run last year, it has been the Giants' ability to plug in different running backs and roll up yardage that has truly impressed me.

Now their top-ranked 181-ypg rushing attack heads to Cleveland to take on the #22 rush defense on Monday Night. It's also a match-up of the league's #1 total offense against the #32 total offense. Yes, the Browns are awful. Last year was a combination of flukes and a last place schedule. Plus, Kellen Winslow is in the hospital with an undisclosed illness.

Pick: NY Giants 37 Cleveland 6

Tulsa (-24.5) at SMU

New head coach June Jones has not worked out so well for the 1-5 Mustangs. The heralded offensive guru's new offense has averaged just 323 yards per game. Here the worst part: The SMU "D" has been torched for 479 yards per game. Here's the worser part: Tulsa averages 596 yards per game. The Golden Hurricane, who have won their shootouts by average of 56-25, may get 700 yards tonight.

Pick: Tulsa 63 SMU 27

Arkansas at Auburn (-17.5)

That is not a typo. I'm taking Arkansas.

For those who follow this feature regularly, you'll know that I've picked against Arkansas three weeks in a row and the result for those who listened to me is money in the bank.

However, last week the Hogs played well and the Gators got the ol' back-door cover by running up the score late (remember this is the same team that kicked a field goal as time expired to beat Miami 26-3).

Meanwhile, Auburn is in turmoil after panicing and firing their offensive coordinator this week. Expect Arkansas to take Auburn late into the game before falling short.

Pick: Auburn 14 Arkansas 9

Upset Special: Louisiana Tech (+260) at Hawaii.

Nothing I love this week, but this a feature so I'll stick with it. I'm looking to Hawaii, who played their best game of the year in an overtime upset at Fresno State last week. Meanwhile, Louisiana Tech played their worst game of the year when they were blown out at Boise.

This is a series that has traditionally favored, the home team, perhaps not surprising given the distance between the two schools. Come to think of it, this pick makes no sense. Oh well.

Pick: Louisana Tech 37 Hawaii 35

Mark's picks coming perhaps after he finishes the half marathon today.

Nate's NFL Power Rankings — Oct. 8

1. N.Y. Giants (4-0, 1). More running backs than 1990s Nebraska teams.

2. Washington (4-1, 3). Oh no, what will they do with a rookie coach? Idiots, Zorn rocks.

3. Dallas (4-1, 4). Don't worry about off the field stuff, but why are they only -5 at Arizona.

4. Tennessee (5-0, 2). Special thanks to officials for that personal foul on Suggs.

5. Carolina (4-1, 6). Rushing attack is taking shape; I know it was KC but its still a shutout.

6. Pittsburgh (4-1, 14). Winning despite injuries. Not sure how long it can last.

7. Chicago (3-2, 13). Hester attack is back on track.

8. Buffalo (4-1, 5). Good time for their bye week.

9. Tampa Bay (3-2, 8). Way better than Mark thinks.

10. San Diego (2-3, 7). Don't think they will finish 10-2 this season.

11. Denver (3-2, 10). I know they beat Tampa, but not by enough at home.

12. Philadelphia (2-3, 11). Different team without Westbrook.

13. Jacksonville (2-3, 15). Moved up because so many others moved down.

14. Baltimore (2-2, 16). Six points from being a Top 8 team.

15. Miami (2-2, 20). I called them most improved team at the beginning of the year.

16. New England (3-1, 18). Stock up slightly, San Diego presents yardstick game on Sunday.

17. N.Y. Jets (2-2, 19). Probably a yo-yo type year for Jets.

18. Arizona (3-2, 22). Warner probably a better fantasy starter than real starter.

19. New Orleans (2-3, 9). Should be able to outscore opponents when Colston, Shockey return.

20. Green Bay (2-3, 12). This is why you shouldn't have traded Favre.

21. Minnesota (2-3, 21). I still don't count on Childress being around next year.

22. Indianapolis (2-2, 17). Two years away from being a last place team.

23. San Francisco (2-3, 23). Who cares?

24. Atlanta (3-2, 25). May have already accrued half the season's wins.

25. Seattle (1-3, 24). It's a time zone thing. Right.

26. Oakland (1-3, 26). JaMarcus Russell is a great player. Get over it!

27. Kansas City (1-4, 27). Another QB change. Whose coaching this team, Steve Spurrier?

28. Houston (0-4, 28). My Sage campaign may be over.

29. Cleveland (1-3, 29). Do those pundits still consider the Browns offseason winners?

30. Cincinnati (0-5, 30). At least the games are getting closer.

31. Detroit (0-4, 31). Yearning for the naked coaches.

32. St. Louis (0-4, 32). This new coach will fix everything.

Heisman Watch — Oct. 7

By Nate Sandstrom

I'm leaving my mock ballot for this week unchanged and have high hopes for 2008 Heisman Bowl I, Sam Bradford vs. Colt McCoy, otherwise known as Oklahoma vs. Texas. There will of course be several more Heisman Bowls in the Big 12 season but this one may be the most important.

The media exposure around this game is huge. The noon kickoff time will be broadcast in every U.S. TV market, and with all the guys vying for the Heisman Trophy it helps to get exposure early.

I'm not making any predictions on this until Friday and I have to DVR the game, but I will look forward to watching quarterbacks completing 80 percent of their passes. For whatever it means, Oklahoma won the EASports simulation 38-20.

Meanwhile, Chase Daniel still leads the ESPN poll. He also leads at Heismanpundit, but Bradford is #2 and McCoy #3. My ballot:

My ballot:

1. Sam Bradford, So., QB, Oklahoma. 205 passer rating (#2), 72%, 18 TD/3 INT for 1,665 yards.

2. Chase Daniel, Sr., QB, Missouri. 196.4 passer rating (#5), 76%, 15/1 for 1,665.

3. Colt McCoy, Jr., QB, Texas. 197.9 passer rating (#4), 79%, 16/3 for 1,280

4. Javon Ringer, Sr., RB, Michigan St. Javon Ringer 164.7 ypg (#2), 12 rush TDs (T-#1).

5. David Johnson, Sr., QB, Tulsa. 214.8 passer rating (#1). 69%, 23/5 for 1,682.

For more NCAA stats, click here.

Major Gloating: It's feeling awfully 1980s around here

They say everything comes back in 20 year cycles. Maybe that includes Redskins football.

For the first time since I was in junior high, I feel like Washington can beat anybody. Sure, they've made the playoffs two of the last three years but I never felt either of those teams could do better than pulling a few upsets to land them in the NFC Championship Game. They didn't even get that far.

Portis is running the ball like he did when he was a rookie, and Campbell is showing poise I never expected he would develop when Washington took him out of Auburn. Santana Moss didn't have a catch yesterday, but Zorn has been getting him the ball in space and letting him use his speed.

And the defense is also playing good enough, despite injuries to Marcus Washington, Shawn Springs and Jason Taylor.

They've gone 4-1 despite having gone to the Giants, Cowboys and Eagles, as well as hosting NFC playoff contenders Arizona and New Orleans. DC is a-buzz. They are 13.5-point favorites this Sunday. When was the last time the 'Skins were two-TD favorites?

I've always been more of a "negative Nate" than a "positive Pete," but for now I'm going to sit back and enjoy the 'Skins crushing the Rams, Browns and Lions (combined 1-11) the next three weeks and moving to 7-1. Zorn will keep their focus, and I'll do all the looking ahead for them. And this year they shouldn't have to go to Seattle for the playoffs!

FCS Top 25 — Oct. 6, 2008

By Nate Sandstrom

This weekend was quite filled with upset story lines of the last one, especially since the biggest impact upset happened Thursday when Pitt went to South Florida and killed the Bulls hopes of a national title game appearance.

I didn't get to watch a ton of football Saturday as I was in Madison for Ohio State-Wisconsin. A good game overall, although I think by the end of the season neither of these teams may be ranked. I have to admit that after Wisconsin CB Allen Langford picked off a pass on OSU's second drive I thought the Badgers had it. The 20-17 defeat was Coach Beilema's first home loss as a head coach (third year).

It was also the first time in like 40 years that the band wasn't there as well and it was weird. Half of going to college games is the ceremony, the pomp and circumstance. It's still not determined if they will be back for this week's game against Penn State, also in prime time but apparently moved from ABC to ESPN.

For-now starting QB is apparently on a short leash. Good, says this Badgers fan.

Before I headed out to tailgate I also caught parts of Indiana at Minnesota, Iowa at Michigan State, Kansas at Iowa State and Penn State at Purdue. Late night, I saw Fresno blow a home game to Hawaii. Quick thoughts:

• Minnesota is just one win from bowl-eligibility after winning a sloppy game against the Hoosiers. Coming off a 1-11 season it's good progress for second-year coach Tim Brewster; however, there will be no easy win for them the rest of the way as they go to Illinois, Purdue and Wisconsin and host Northwestern, Michigan and Iowa. Still, they should get one of those to get to 6-6.

• Going into the season I thought Indiana junior QB Kellen Lewis was an NFL prospect. Saturday, he was splitting time with sophomore Ben Chappell. He also had a key fumble. It may be a long year for the Hoosiers.

• Iowa State reversed their usual style of starting slow and jumped out to a 20-0 lead on Kansas at the half. They then played their usual first-half swiss cheese defense in the second half rather than the first as Kansas came back for a 35-33 win. This game, combined with S. Florida's loss, has Kansas dropping way down in my poll.

• All right. It's 4th and 1 on your opponents 21 with 2:16 left. You can tie the game with a field goal, completing a 13-point rally. Kirk Ferentz went for it. Was stuffed. And Iowa had lost three straight. By a combined nine points. Short sentences are annoying.

I was saying kick it and go to OT, but Ferentz apparently got a vote of confidence today, so I guess he will be out by the end of the year. Don't expect him to get a job handicapping, the Hawks will still be favored at Indiana.

• Penn State looked sloppy in their 20-6 win, but I have a feeling they will step it up in Madison this weekend.

• Fresno State's resume looks a little worse each week. The opening win at Rutgers and a narrow home loss to Wisconsin looked good in mid-September. It doesn't look so great now, especially after getting taken to 3OT by Toledo, scraping out a win at UCLA and losing at home to previously 1-3 Hawaii.

Now this week's FCS Top 25: (W-L, last week's rank)
1. Oklahoma (5-0, 1). Making their schedule look easier than it is.
2. Alabama (6-0, 2). Avoided dangerous trap door game, so props for that.
3. Missouri (5-0, 3). Broke 50 in four of five games now.
4. LSU (4-0, 4). When are these guys going to play?
5. Penn State (6-0, 5). Rest of conference may drag down terrific team.
6. Texas (5-0, 6). Colt McCoy is more accurate than Tom Brady.
7. Texas Tech (5-0, 7). Will look to score 200 over next 3 games before Longhorns.
8. Vanderbilt (5-0, 11). Can't debate the resume, although this story will end badly by Nov.
9. USC (3-1, 12). No game left on their schedule to vault them pass SEC/Big 12 Champs.
10. Georgia (4-1, 10). Right team, wrong schedule.
11. Florida (4-1, 14). Hate to move them up after they piled meaningless points on Arkansas late.
12. Oklahoma St. (5-0, 20). Don't write them off, even if they lose to Missouri.
13. Auburn (4-2, 15). Does Jason Campbell have eligibility left?
14. BYU (5-0, 16). Overrated nationally, but could win a BCS Bowl on the right night.
15. Utah (6-0, 17). Based on Org. St., should be ahead of USC. But Utah plays too many too close.
16. Tulsa (5-0, 18). This year's Hawaii with a better offense.
17. Boise St. (4-0, 19). Win over Oregon doesn't look as good as it did two weeks ago.
18. Ball State (6-0, 21). Make a joke. This team is legit.
19. Virginia Tech (5-1, 22). Being reminded that every game counts, even ECU.
20. California (4-1, 24). Stupid early-game loss at Maryland. Maybe they should cry too.
21. Pitt (4-1, NR). Now that they're ranked again, they'll probably lose again.
22. Michigan State (5-1, 25). Positioning themselves for New Year's Day Bowl.
23. South Florida (5-1, 8). Need a healthy Selvie.
24. Kansas (4-1, 9). Don't often drop teams who win by 15, but see above Iowa St. comments.
25. South Carolina (4-2, NR). Big win over Miss with big plays on defense.

FCS rankings on the sidebar.

Mark's Week 6 Jessup Lockdown

In honor of O.J. Simpson, I'm not promising these games will be locked down today, but maybe 13 years from now, they'll prove right.

Oregon (+15.5) at USC

The Trogans' defense has held up solidly all season until last week. This week is probably an even bigger test for their defense, going against an Oregon team that is putting up 47 points a game and rushing for 300 yards per game. Last year Oregon pulled off the outright win, but that was at home. This year, Oregon will travel to SoCal and push the hungover Trojans into a close 4th quarter game. USC 35 Oregon 28.

Auburn (-4) at Vanderbilt

Vanderbilt's had a solid season and an impressive win at Rice, but it comes to a stop this week when Auburn comes to town. Vanderbilt will try to run a safe offense against this formidable derfense, but points will be few and far between. By the time they try to open it up in the second half, Auburn will be on its toes waiting for the big turnover and Rice's injured offense isn't going to be able to score when it needs to. Auburn runs away with this one 24 - 10.

New England (-3) at San Francisco

This isn't my most assured lock of the week, but I have a feeling Belichik was not only embarrassed by the outright loss to the Dolphins, he was embarrassed by the way in which he was outcoached by a first year head coach. Look for the Pats to come off of the bye week with several trick plays and a finally open Randy Moss. They'll pound the ball for the first half and then pour on the points in the second half with a flea-flicker or reverse to Moss. San Francisco is giving up 24 points a game and they're down a linebacker and a corner. New England 27, San Francisco 12

Upset Special

Northern Illinois (+500) at Tennessee

I know it's tough to go into the SEC and win on the road, but when Tennessee is limping and their QB is completing and appaling 50% of his passes for only 5 yards per attempt and has only 2 TDs to his 4 INTs, there's a good shot to upset them. Northern Illinois has a solid offense and their defense should be able to hold the Volunteers in check. Tennesee has only scored a total of 18 points in the past two games. NI has only allowed 3 points in thier past two games.
Northern Illinois 21, Tennesee 10

Nate's Lockdown: Week 6

Going to have to be short and sweet because I have to leave for my flight to catch Badgers-Buckeyes in less than an hour. But after a weekend when I went 2-1 (missed Penn State by a point) and hit a 4-1 upset special, I wouldn't want to deprive our readers of more quality picks.

Florida (-24.5) at Arkansas

If you've read my blog frequently, you'd know I've had a beat against Arkansas theory that has paid all year. After Florida lost to Ole Miss, the line is down enough to find value in the Gators. UF will be eager to take out last week's loss on the poor Hogs, who will just have to suffer through a rebuilding year.

Pick: Florida 48 Arkansas 10

Northern Illinois at Tennessee (-16.5)

Northern Illinois obviously has much less talent than the Vols, but they've shown a lot of grit following a down year in DeKalb. They're a few plays from 4-0, and although they will eventually fall short of a great upset, they will hang around enough to make Tennessee Coach Phil Fulmer start to worry about his job.

Pick: Tennessee 27 Northern Illinois 21

Rice at Tulsa (over 80.5)

"Over 80.5!" you say? Well, these two high-flying offenses might hit for a total of 100 points. The teams played in 96- and 97-point affairs last week; they've scored a combined 91 and 79 the last two times they met.

Tulsa's average game has been 55-24, while Rice's average score is 41-34. I smell the century mark.

Pick: Tulsa 62 Rice 41

Pittsburgh at Jacksonville (-4)

Pittsburgh is coming off a short week and an overtime win. Jacksonville is also coming off an overtime win, but at least they didn't lose two players for the season. The Steelers are beat up, and will feel no better after this trip to Florida.

Pick: Jacksonville 27 Pittsburgh 13

Upset Special: Kentucky (+500) at Alabama

I know you think this insane, but have you watched college football the last few years? The Wildcats are under the radar with the graduation of Andre Woodson but they are undefeated. This is the perfect let down spot for the Tide, who showed they can look past a team by the way they fell at home to UL-Moroe last year.

Pick: Kentucky 27 Alabama 23

Now I'm watching this

By Nate Sandstrom
So this morning I was compiling data for our What to Watch sidebar and I came across this Web site, called Are You Watching This?

It appears to be a dream site for lovers of sports on TV. You can create a free account and customize your page so the site will tell you what games are on in your area on the channels you get. But the best part is that it will send you e-mail or texts when the games on TV that you may have switched from get good.

I just signed up today and will give it a full review in two weeks after seeing how it goes.

Mark's Week 4 Power Rankings

1. New York Football Giants - This is reluctant, but if I put my heart's true #1 pick (Buffalo), Nate will fire me. They're ranked 4th in total offense and 4th in total defense. For a defending champ, I have no choice but to put them in this slot.
2. Tennessee Titans - Who'd have thought a team would rally around a QB's supposed suicidal tendencies?!
3. Buffalo Bills - The legendary Tim Russert curse has been lifted?
4. Dallas Cowboys - Reports of their demise (and T.O.'s imminent implosion) are greatly exaggerated. The team played a bad game and had a crappy game plan. Apparently I didn't get the memo that they were supposed to go 16-0. They didn't run Barber enough and they tried to get too fancy with putting T.O. in the slot. They'll get back to their game if they know what's good for them.
5. D.C. - Will Jason Campbell be the next Eli Manning!
6. New England Patriots - I have to believe they're going to come off of the bye and completely destroy San Fran.
7. Philadelphia Eagles - I'm playing the odds here - putting all four NFC East teams in the top seven. One of them has got to be the true contender. I like the Eagles so long as Westbrook is healthy and Desean Jackson is in check.
8. Pittsburgh Steelers - I'm not even sure they're going to win the division any more. Plus, they're seriously injured right now. But I'll leave them up here for now because all you need in the NFL is a QB.
9. Carolina Panthers - Maybe the San Diego game wasn't a fluke after all
10. Chicago Bears - This division is wide open and I like defense
11. San Diego Chargers - I was going to put the Broncos ahead of them, but then I saw the Broncos are ranked 1st in total offense, 30th in total defense. In my opinion, defense - be it good or bad - is more consistent, meaning the broncos are likely to be more bad than good
12. Denver Broncos - They're ranked #1 in offense!
13. New Orleans Saints - Just another team that can score, but can't stop the scoring.
14. Baltimore Ravens - May have lost the game, but the injuries to Steelers may be a win. Damn you, Hines Ward!
15. Green Bay Packers - As long as Rodgers is healthy, they'll be fine. Vegas had clearly decreed that they would lose that game.
16. Indianapolis Colts - Holy crap! I made it to 16 without including the Colts?
17. Tampa Bay Bucs - I don't know what's going on here. Who's on this team? How are they 3-1? Ernest Graham, Brian Griese, Antonio Bryant? Ooooo, I'm shaking in my cleats.
18. Jacksonville Jaguars - My honorary week 5 second favorite team.
19. New York Jets - Still the 3rd best team in the division
20. Arizona Cardinals - So much for the two week stay on the east coast.
21. Minnesota Vikings - They're defense is overrated
22. Atlanta Falcons - 5 wins away from my prediction!
23. Miami Dolphins - I bet Mangini is so jealous he didn't do that to Belichik
24. Seattle Seahawks - They can't be as bad as they look so far.
25. San Francisco 49ers - Beware the Belichik wrath this week.
26. Oakland Raiders - I desperately wanted to put them last thanks to yesterday's debacle with Al Davis, but damn, there are just so many bad teams
27. Kansas City - At least they'll always have that home field
28. Houston Texans - First home game of the season coming up!
29. Cleveland Browns - Wow, Derek Anderson is completing 49% of his passes.
30. Detroit Lions - Finally fired Millen. So this season is a win no matter what happens from here.
31. Cincinnati Bengals - Trade Chad Johnson to Baltimore. (I love picturing Nate reading these)
32. Saint Louis - 30th in 31st in total defense. 32nd in points scored, 31st in points allowed. Wow.

Nate's NFL Power Ratings Oct. 1

By Nate Sandstrom

Remember how much I praised the Big 12 the other day? I'm equally impressed by the NFC East, even though they finally lost a game outside the division on Sunday night. Thus, all but the Eagles are in my top four.

More interesting to readers might be how I stack three NFC South teams in the next five (that may make it hard for Atlanta to win seven games, Mark).

At the bottom of the poll, the Detroit Lions sit at #30 with a status of awfuler. But relax silver and blue fans there may be bright days ahead. And I'm not talking about Matt Millen being sacked, it's that the Curse of Bobby Layne expires in four days. Sorry Cubs fans, that's the only curse ending this year.



1. New York Giants (3-0), OK, OK, I guess I have to admit the Giants are good.
2. Tennessee (4-0). What if Kerry Collins played the Giants in the Super Bowl?
3. Washington (3-1). Thought the first game was still preseason.
4. Dallas (3-1). Man, the NFC East is good.
5. Buffalo (4-0). I guess Mark was right about them after all. Go Lee Evans!
6. Carolina (3-1). How did they lose to Minnesota?
7. San Diego (2-2). Really should be 3-1.
8. Tampa Bay (3-1). Not sure how they're winning, but they are.
9. New Orleans (2-2). NFC South looking as strong as ever.
10. Denver (3-1). Not far from 1-3, but still got wins.
11. Philadelphia (2-2). Pretty early, but really need win over Skins this weekend.
12. Green Bay (2-2). Falling fast.
13. Chicago (2-2). Much better with Hester in lineup.
14. Pittsburgh (3-1). Injuries mounting.
15. Jacksonville (2-2). Not sure what to make of Jags, but I'm guessing 9-7.
16. Baltimore (2-1). Hype of the week: Beltway Superbowl!
17. Indianapolis (1-2). Old. Satisfied. Out of the playoffs.
18. New England (2-1). Seriously, lost by 25 to Miami? At home?
19. New York Jets (2-2). Fav-tastic Sunday.
20. Miami (1-2). Another team I don't know what to make of.
21. Minnesota (1-3). Can Vikings get Mike Tice back?
22. Arizona (2-2). Still highest-rated team in NFC West.
23. San Francisco (2-2). What's an Alex Smith?
24. Seattle (1-2). Can we get Steve Largent back?
25. Atlanta (2-2). Have already peaked for the year.
26. Kansas City (1-3). Why wouldn't you always play Huard?
27. Oakland (1-3). I actually think they might get better.
28. Houston (0-3). I still like Sage over Schaub.
29. Cleveland (1-3). Still awful.
30. Detroit (0-3). Awfuler. Still, things have been worse.
31. Cincinnati (0-4). Awfulest.
32. St. Louis (0-4). Awfulestest. Would be better if they and Oakland were both still in LA.

Heisman Watch: Sept. 30

By Nate Sandstrom
Could the Big 12 season decide the Heisman Trophy winner? I think the answer is yes, as I have 3 Big 12 QB's at the top of my ballot in Bradford, McCoy and Daniels. In fact, the Big 12 is home to four of the nation's top five passers. And six of the top 10. And nine of the Top 20.

Meanwhile, Javon Ringer, who is one of my favorite players not on Wisconsin except for the day he plays Wisconsin, keeps racking up yardage, now posting three straight games with 198+ rushing. That said, I'm a little worried he'll wear out without a second back to spell him this year.

My other top RB this year, Knowshon Moreno, drops after the Alabama debacle.

I looked to Conference USA for the number five spot, ultimately going with Tulsa QB David Johnson, the nation's top rated passer, over Rice WR Jarett Dillard who is a TD machine in the suddenly high-powered Rice offense.

Here's my poll:

1. Sam Bradford, So., QB, Oklahoma. 209.1 rating. 72%, 16/2 for 1,293.
2. Chase Daniel, Sr., QB, Missouri. 193.4 rating. 76%, 12/1 for 1412.
3. Colt McCoy, Jr., QB, Texas.209.7 passer rating. 80%, 14/1 for 1,018. 278 yards rush, 4 TD.
4. Javon Ringer, Sr., RB, Michigan State. #2 rusher with 179.4 ypg and leads the nation with 12 TDs.
5. David Johnson, Sr., QB, Tulsa. 227.2 passer rating is tops in the nation! 73 %, 19/4, 1,505 yards passing with 12.75/att.

My Internet is running really slow tonight, so I'll update who everyone else has on Wednesday.

***Wednesday update****
So ESPN's experts poll looks pretty similar to my mock ballot, with four of our top five the same. Heisman Pundit's poll looks about the same. Neither gives a sniff to David Johnson, who really doesn't have a chance because of Tulsa's weak schedule. I love his numbers though.

FCS Top 25 Rankings

By Nate Sandstrom
I know these are a day late, but I haven't had such a hard time coming up with rankings in a long time. It kind of points to how worthless these early polls are. That said, I think there are now eight front-runners for the national title.

Among them, four are in the Big 12 and have to play each other. LSU and Alabama also have to play each other and will have to face sleeper Ole Miss. Meanwhile, Penn State has to play Wisconsin and Ohio State on the road, but I think they are better than both. South Florida probably has the easiest road right now but they have to play at West Virginia in December and that won't be easy. So maybe my preseason pick of no undefeated teams will hold.

Here's this week's poll.

1. Oklahoma (4-0). Should've been #1 even before USC lost.
2. Alabama (5-0). Will young team keep its focus through November?
3. Missouri (4-0). Glad to be off on a weekend when most of the top teams were getting beat.
4. LSU (4-0). Just once, one of Les Miles' crazy calls has to burn him.
5. Penn State (5-0). Got a win on a night when Illinois brought their A game.
6. Texas (4-0). As under the radar as a Texas team has been in a while.
7. Texas Tech (4-0). Maybe benefitting from high early ranking.
8. South Florida (5-0). Need to increase margin of victory in some of these games.
9. Kansas (3-1). Can get back in it by virtue of playing in Big 12.
10. Georgia (4-1). Insert blackout joke here.
11. Vanderbilt (4-0). Hey, until someone beats them, why not?
12. USC (2-1). I don't want to put them this high, but hard to get a read on them now.
13. Ole Miss (3-2). A few points away from 5-0 with wins over three ranked teams.
14. Florida (3-1). What happened to Tim Tebow?
15. Auburn (4-1). Keep winning, but keeping looking worse in my book.
16. BYU (4-0). One-point win over Washington will come back to hurt them.
17. Utah (5-0). Win over Michigan looks better after Wisconsin loss there.
18. Tulsa (4-0). Just watch this scoring machine one time, it's fun.
19. Boise State (3-0). Will keep cheering for Oregon.
20. Oklahoma St. (4-0). Hey Gundy, you're 20!
21. Ball State (5-0). Maybe Coach Hoke can get on Letterman.
22. Wake Forest (3-1). Tough let down loss to Navy.
23. Virginia Tech (4-1). If they keep winning, they can get back in the Top 10.
24. California (3-1). Ummm, sorry Maryland fans, but in the end Terps only won by 5 at home.
25. Michigan State (4-1). I can't only have one Big Ten team ranked, right?

Lockdown: Week 5

By Nate Sandstrom

Doesn't it figure that the week where I break through on my upset special (Boise State with the win at +320) I pull an unspectacular 1-3. I will point out that North Carolina was cruising before Yates went out.

At least my pick against Arkansas theory finally paid off. I'm going to that well one more time.

Locks
Arkansas at Texas (-27)

It's rare that I would lay 27 points in a border war game; however, the Longhorns average margin of victory is 37.6. You may say, "Ya, but that was against Florida Atlantic, UTEP and Rice."

I respond: Arkansas beat Western Illinois by four and UL-Monroe by one. They trailed in the fourth quarter in both games. Get ready for a long season, Bobby Petrino.

Pick: Texas 55 Arkansas 13

Virginia at Duke (-7)

Duke hasn't beat Virginia since 1999. They've won two games the previous three years. But junior QB Thaddeus Lewis has guided the Blue Devils to a 2-1 start, posting a 5 TD-o INT ration. UVa's QB's have thrown no touchdowns and five picks.

Pick: Duke 31 Virginia 14

Illinois at Penn State (-15)

I'm not quite sure why Illinois is in the Top 25, other than that they were good last year. At the same time, I'm not sure why Penn State is not in the Top 10.

Both situations should be rectified this week. Penn State has putting up points like it's 1994. They'll be eager to avenge last year's loss to Illinois, a game they could have easily won.

Pick: Penn State 48 Illinois 21

Upset Special

Washington (+400) at Dallas

It will likely be the 'Skins last ever trip to Texas stadium. Why not end it with a major upset? After the opening night disaster against the Giants the burgundy and gold have looked much shaper. I know Dallas has been dominant, but in recent matches it also seems like this is a game that Washington gets more up for.

It's possible Washington will get blown out; Romo will definitely get at least one long pass past the safeties. But when you're getting 4-1 for a 2-1 team playing a divisional game, I call it a good investment.

Pick: Washington 31 Dallas 28

Updated standings for Mark and I:

Lockdown:
Nate: 6-6 (-60)
Mark 5-2 (+280)

Upset Special:
Nate: 1-3 (+20)
Mark: 1-1 (+110)

Toss-Up
Nate leads Mark 1-0

Top 25 Rankings

Comments later. Maybe. Nate.

FBS:

1. Oklahoma (3-0)
2. USC (2-0)
3. Missouri (4-0)
4. Florida (4-0)
5. LSU (3-0)
6. Georgia (4-0)
7. Wisconsin (3-0)
8. Penn State (4-0)
9. Texas (3-0)
10. Texas Tech (4-0)
11. Alabama (4-0)
12. Auburn (3-1)
13. South Florida (4-0)
14. Kansas (3-1)
15. Wake Forest (3-0)
16. Vanderbilt (4-0)
17. BYU (4-0)
18. Utah (4-0)
19. Nebraska (3-0)
20. Tulsa (3-0)
21. Boise St. (3-1)
22. East Carolina (3-1)
23. Virginia Tech (3-1)
24. Oklahoma St. (3-0)
25. TCU (4-0)

FCS:
1. Montana (3-0)
2. Furman (3-1)
3. New Hampshire (3-0)
4. James Madison (3-1)
5. Northern Iowa (2-1)
6. McNeese State (1-1)
7. Richmond (3-1)
8. Appalachian State (1-2)
9. Cal Poly (2-1)
10. Elon (3-1)
11. Wofford (2-1)
12. South Dakota State (2-2)
13. Southern Illinois (1-1)
14. Eastern Washington (1-2)
15. Youngstown State (2-2)
16. Georgia Southern (2-2)
17. The Citadel (2-1)
18. Delaware (1-2)
19. Central Arkansas (3-0)
20. Hampton (3-1)
21. Masachusetts (2-2)
22. UC-Davis (1-3)
23. Western Illinois (2-2)
24. North Dakota State (2-2)
25. Northern Arizona (2-1)

Lockdown: Week 4

By Nate Sandstrom

With Missouri having just destroyed Nevada early Saturday, my lockdown picks were 5-1 for the year. An Auburn flub that night and a Vikings collapse a day later, my picks are suddenly a pedestrian 5-3.

Add to that my near miss on UL-Monroe at +450 two weeks ago and the upset special is now 0-3.

Update standings for Mark and I:

Lockdown:
Nate: 5-3 (+170)
Mark 5-2 (+280)

Upset Special:
Nate: 0-3 (-300)
Mark: 1-1 (+110)

Toss-Up
Nate leads Mark 1-0

Onto this weeks picks, which by total coincidence almost totally involve the Tar Heel state. I've also thrown in a bonus pick in an effort to boost my record.

East Carolina (-7) at N.C. State

After narrowly avoiding a loss to Tulane, it looks like the public may be wavering on how good the Pirates actually are. Now that Virginia Tech has looked poor in two games following their opening loss to East Carolina, and West Virginia has lost again, perhaps it's understandable.

But don't fail to notice how bad N.C. State may be. They've been outyardaged by 140 or more in their last three against Division 1-A opponents, going back to last year's 37-0 shutout against Maryland. The Wolfpack won this match-up last year in a game also thought ECU would win, but I think this year the Pirates keep their bid for a BCS Bowl alive.

Pick: East Carolina 27 N.C. State 7

North Carolina (-3) vs. Virginia Tech

The Tar Heels haven't had a winning football team since 2001, but they may have put the nation on notice that they are back after whipping Rutgers in New Jersey 44-12 last weekend. UNC was actually outyardaged by Rutgers, as well as McNeese State in the opener, but their big play capability has Butch Davis' squad back on the map.

Meanwhile, a team know for big plays, Virginia Tech, has certainly lacked them this season. The QB controversy is in full effect as Glennon and Taylor have thrown 1 TD combined. They were outyardaged by 14o in their narrow home win against Ga. Tech last week and I expect the offense to continue their struggles.

Pick: North Carolina 31 Virginia Tech 16

Alabama (-9) at Arkansas

If you've been reading the blog this year, you'd notice that I think the 'Hogs may be one of the most overrated teams in the nation. I called for them to be defeated at home by both 1-AA Western Illinois and two-touchdown 'dog UL-Monroe. Late rallies prevented both picks from coming true, but there will be no rally against the Tide, who are allowing less than 8 ppg.

Pick: Alabama 37 Arkansas 13

Carolina (+3) at Minnesota

Disregard everything I said about the Vikings in this week's faceoff. Sharper, Peterson and Berrian are questionable this week. Rice is doubtful. Frerotte is the starter. Childress is an idiot. Even a time with this much talent in the trenches can't overcome this situation.

Pick: Carolina 20 Minnesota 10

Upset Special: Boise State (+320) at Oregon

As much success as Boise State has had over the past decade, they've never won a road game against a BCS team. But Oregon's QB situation is up in the air again, and we all remember what happened after Dixon went down last year. I'm guessing Oregon will still put points on the board, but costly turnovers will do them in.

Pick: Boise State 37 Oregon 34

Nate's NFL Power Ratings-Week 2

By Nate Sandstrom

This week's power ratings are complete with Chargers fan bias.

1. Dallas (2-0,1). Win against Eagles on Monday reaffirms dominance.
2. Philadelphia (1-1, 4). DeSean Jackson is still good.
3. Green Bay (2-0, 2). Maybe Rodgers is better than Favre. Brian Brohm, too.
4. San Diego (0-2, 3). Robbed!
5. New England (2-0, 6). I still don't believe in Cassel.
6. Pittsburgh (2-0, 5). Unimpressive against Browns.
7. N.Y. Giants (2-0, 8). I guess they actually are good.
8. Arizona (2-0, 12). Just pay Boldin,
9. Buffalo (2-0, 14). Remember 2003? This time, first two weeks may not be fluke.
10. Indianapolis (1-1, 11). Hey, they won the Super Bowl with no run defense.
11. Denver (2-0, 15). I H8 CUTLER!
12. New Orleans (1-1, 7). Brees can't throw that many bad passes again, can he?
13. Carolina (2-0, 9). Undefeated without Steve Smith? Brilliant move Fox.
14. Washington (1-1, 16). Comeback against Saints shows signs of life.
15. Minnesota (0-2, 13). 2nd half meltdown frustrates, but I'm not giving up on them.
16. Chicago (1-1, 10). Hester's hurt. Uh-oh.
17. Jacksonville (0-2, 18). May be one of those disappointing years.
18. Tampa Bay (1-1, 20). Why does Gruden hate all his QBs?
19. San Francisco (1-1, 29). Somehow the second-best team in NFC West.
20. N.Y. Jets (1-1, 17). Over-spended! Over-spended!
21. Baltimore (1-0, 24). Would've gone to Super Bowl if it wasn't for that hurricane. Just ask Mark.
22. Houston (0-1, 21). Ask the 2005 Saints how dealing with a hurricane works out?
23. Tennessee (2-0, 19). You will all know Chris Johnson soon.
24. Cleveland (0-2, 25). Greenberg actually refered to them as a Super Bowl contender this spring. That's one example of why I favor Fox Sports in the morning. (1370 in B-more).
25. Seattle (0-2, 22). Memo to Jim Mora Jr.: Ask Dad how to talk about losses after the game. It will make things more fun. For me.
26. Miami (0-2, 23). What if they actually lost more games this year?
27. Atlanta (1-1, 26). At least they got Detroit and KC in the first three weeks.
28. Oakland (1-1, 32). Kiffin is still a goner.
29. Detroit (0-2, 27). Awful. See Faceoff below.
30. Kansas City (0-2, 28). Football fan in two years: "Who's Larry Johnson?"
31. Cincinnati (0-2, 30). How were they ever good, even briefly?
32. St. Louis (0-2, 31). They're a 10-point underdog at Seattle!

Faceoff: NFC Noth

By Nate Sandstrom and Mark Goldman

After a brief hiatus, welcome back to another edition of Faceoff. This week's guest is Dr. Kent Sandstrom, who may not hold a Ph. D. in football, but at least knows enough to be in the lead in Nate's pick 'em league.

Nonetheless, Nate's father, a longtime Vikings fan, has some questions about his purple and gold's prospects in the confusing NFC North:

1) Can we "stick a fork" in the Vikings after their 0-2 start, particularly given the one-dimensional offensive approach favored by Brad Childress? Or, can the Vikes trust AP to find a way to get them to the playoffs? In a related vein, should the Vikings give up on the Tavaris Jackson project?


Mark says:

You can stick a fork in them for 2 reasons. 1)They won't win the division (the Packers are far and away the better team) and 2) the NFC is too deep for them to win a wild card. We saw the shootout in Dallas last night. The NFC East is stacked from top to bottom and the NFC South has two very good teams in Carolina and New Orleans. I still like the Vikings to get to 8-8 on the back of Adrian Peterson. While I don't think Tavaris Jackson is very good, I think Childress's conservative offense is hurting him even more. Childress is trying to reign Jackson in and the result is a predictable, defendable passing game. Though he will throw more picks, they should let Jackson loose and live and die on his ability to win the games. You don't win games when you try to hide your QB. We know that too well in Baltimore.



Nate says:

First of all, don't ever stick a fork in a viking, it may cause them to raid your village. Secondly, there's no reason to panic after two close losses to two quality teams. Expect the third game to be the charm against Panthers this week, even if the Panthers know they don't really have to defend against the bomb.

That said, it would be helpful if opponents did have to worry about the deep ball. It's hard to know whether the lack of that threat is a conservative approach favored by Childress or the Vikings inability to pick out the right QB (See Brooks Bollinger, John David Booty, Kelly Holcomb and others under the Childress tenure). Add to that injuries to Rice and Berrian and the deep ball is now even less a threat. Regardless, they're stuck with Jackson for now, but he's not bad enough to prevent the rest of the team from rallying to finish 10-4.

2) Are the Packers for real this year? Can they make the playoffs with Aaron Rodgers as their QB? If so, would Mike McCarthy deserve coach of the year honors?


Nate says:

It would be hard to name a coach coming off a 13-3 year Coach of the Year the following campaign. That said, the Packers have thus far exceeded my expectations, staving off comeback-attempts against division opponents in back-to-back weeks.

The Packers definitely look like the favorite in the NFC North, but how will this club handle a losing streak, if they have one? What will the locker room say after Aaron Rodgers first three-INT game? This team seems poised enough to avoid any "What if Brett was here?" distractions, but that question still hangs over the team as a potential poison pill.


Mark says:

The Packers are absolutely for real. And they won't win despite Rodgers, they'll win because of him. He'll be a better QB this year than Favre would have been. It doesn't hurt that he's surrounded by one of the most well-rounded teams in the whole league. Good receivers, RB, line and defense. I'll give the coach of the year honors to Ted Thompson for coaching Mike McCarthy through the Favre mess this summer.

3) Can 'da Bears bounce back from their 2007 debacle? What are their chances of winning the NFC North?


Mark says:

The Bears have 37.5 % chance of winning the division. Their week one win was a little overblown. The Colts aren't exactly the team we're used to. But the Bears have a good chance to make it exciting this year. If they get through September with only one more loss, they could go 5-3. Starting October 5th, they have 2 games against the Lions, one against the Falcons, and one at home against the Vikings. I like their chances to pull out 3 wins there and get on a roll. I could easily see the Vikings falling apart this season and the Bears sneaking into second place in the division.


Nate says:

Let's just say I'll let Mark place the bet on the Bears winning the division when we are in Vegas this weekend. Sure, the defense is playing well again, and Orton seems not to be giving the ball up like Grossman did (apparently that is now Greg Olson's job).

However, Devin Hester's ribs are not good, even if he is playing. If Chicago loses the threat he provides to run the ball back, then it will cost the Bears field position. Another year of sub-par offense in Chicago means this team will be competitive but ultimately miss the playoffs.

4) What are the major strengths and weaknesses of each team in the North? Do any teams in this division have a realistic chance of making the Super Bowl? Why or why not?


Mark says:

The Bears major weakness is stil their QB. Their strength remains Defense and Devin Hester. This is a good enough team that if the got hold of a legit QB somehow, they could make a real playoff run. Packers have very few weaknesses. I think Ryan Grant is a little overblown as a running back and their D-line isn't the biggest, but it's a very balanced team.

The Lions' strength and weakness is John Kitna. He has the ability to throw the ball successfully, but the problem is they think he's better than he is and for that reason they have failed to develop a well-balanced attack. They need to learn to grab a lead and hold it with a stubborn running game. Vikings? Well, their weakness is someone named Tavaris Jackson. Their strength? Someone named Adrian Peterson. I don't know that I've seen two players with such polar opposite skill before.


Nate says:

I'm not sure the Lions have any strengths. It's certainly not the front office. Why else would the draft a good-looking rookie and Kevin Smith, cut Tatum Bell, sign Rudi Johnson, then bring in Shaun Alexander and Cedric Benson. Fortunately this team isn't good enough to get to overtime, otherwise they would kick-off to start the extra frame again.

As for the rest of the teams, the Packers are the only legit Super Bowl contender. I agree with Mark's earlier post that the NFC East is totally stacked. It looks like the 80's may be coming back and the NFC East will again dominate the conference for a few years.

Heisman Watch: Sept. 16, 2008

By Nate Sandstrom

Sam Bradford's second straight 5-TD performance has him jumping into the lead on my mock ballot this week after Knowshon had a mediocre game against SC.

Javon Ringer moves into the Top 5 this week, despite a low ypc. I expect more games like last week for him though.

My full ballot:

1) Sam Bradford, So., QB, Oklahoma. 214.4 rating fueled by nearly 80 percent completion and 12/2 ratio.
2) Chase Daniel, Sr., QB, Missouri. 197.5 rating with 10/1 ratio. Mizzou-OU could be Heisman Bowl.
3) Knowshon Moreno, So., RB, Georgia. So-so game at SC, but many more chances to show his talent. Still has 6.6 ypc and 7 TD's.
4) Javon Ringer, Sr., RB, Michigan State. After 282-yard show he is firmly on the radar. Cal game looks worse after Bears lost at Maryland, but Ringer has a nose for the end zone and will keep putting up numbers.
5) Brandon Tate, Sr., WR, North Carolina. All-purpose All-Star averages 30 yards per time he touches the ball.

Meanwhile, Heisman Pundit lists Chase Daniel as the favorite, since he's a senior. Daniel also leads at ESPN.

Top 25 Rankings — Sept. 15; and a defense of the Big Ten

By Nate Sandstrom

So the conventional sports talk story that came out of the college football weekend was that the Big Ten doesn't have the athletes to compete with USC or any other big conference school.

Of course if you accept that as fact, how do you explain Michigan beating Florida in the Capital One Bowl last year? Or that Wisconsin has taken two of its last three against SEC teams? By the way, Penn State has won their past two bowl games vs. the SEC. Over the past three seasons, the Big Ten and SEC have split eight bowl games. Hardly a dominating SEC performance, even if they won the past two national title games.

As for USC, sure they have a good run of waxing Big Ten teams. But they have lit up pretty much everyone for the past six years, not just the Big Ten (remember when they beat Oklahoma 55-19 in the national title game?). The Trojans'run certainly doesn't make the Pac-10 necessarily better than the Big Ten. See: Penn State 45 Oregon State 14 a few weeks ago.

What I take from Saturday's USC laugher 35-3 route of OSU is that USC is very good and Ohio State may not be. I've dropped the Buckeyes completely from my Top 25. Is anyone certain they will beat Troy this week if Beanie Wells doesn't play? However, that shouldn't be an indictment on Wisconsin or Penn State or anyone else in the conference.

Here are my latest rankings:

Team (W-L, rank last week)

1. Oklahoma (3-0,1). Despite public perception, OU has probably played the better sked.
2. USC (2-0, 2). Defense was simply dominant. They're off again this week.
3. Missouri (3-0,3). Three straight with 50+.
4. Florida (2-0,4). Tennessee could provide Tebow his first breakout game this year.
5. Wisconsin (3-0, 10). Timely D + opponent's bad kicking = Best road win this season.
6. Auburn (3-0, 5). 3-2 baseball games are more exciting that last week was.
7. LSU (2-0, 6). Now head to Auburn for SEC West control in their conference opener.
8. Georgia (3-0, 7). Have to be underwhelmed by effort at SC.
9. Penn State (3-0, 9). Have played no one, but done so well.
10. Texas (2-0, 8). Low-profile for a Horns team off to fast start.
11. Texas Tech (3-0, 12). Should finally break 50 this weekend against UMass.
12. Alabama (3-0, 14). I can't believe Arkansas has gone so far w/o losing. Roll Tide.
13. South Florida (3-0, 17). Great comeback showed poise.
14. Kansas (2-1,18). I know they lost, but I feel better about them after USF game.
15. Oregon (3-0, 13). Purdue gives Duck early X-mas gift.
16. East Carolina (3-0, 15). Does Saturday's game mean Tulane is better than W. Va.?
17. Wake Forest (2-0, 21). Trip to Fla. St. this weekend for ACC Atlantic favorite.
18. Florida State (2-0, 22). Have yet to be a 1-A team.
19. Nebraska (3-0, 25). Now off to prep for Va. Tech's trip to Lincoln.
20. Vanderbilt (3-0, 23). Half-way to first bowl berth in 26 years.
21. BYU (3-0, NR). Imagine what they would do Tennessee.
22. Utah (3-0, NR). UNLV win looks better. Michigan win looks worse.
23. Oklahoma State (3-0, NR). 23rd in nation. 7th in Big 12.
24. Fresno State (1-1, NR). Tough loss. Lots of season left.
25. Northwestern (3-0, NR). Tyrell Sutton is back.

Meanwhile, in the FCS, that was a slight shake-up after North Dakota State squandered a 10-0 lead at Wyoming for a 13-10 loss. The big game that was to be McNeese St.-Cal Poly unfortunately was ppd. due to Ike. Here's the rest of the rankings.

1. Appalachian State
2. Montana
3. McNeese State
4. Wofford
5. New Hampshire
6. North Dakota State
7. Richmond
8. Delaware
9. Cal Poly
10. Northern Iowa
11. Georgia Southern
12. E. Washington
13. James Madison
14. Southern Illinois
15. Western Illinois
16. Massachusetts
17. Elon
18. The Citadel
19. Central Arkansas
20. South Dakota State
21. UC-Davis
22. Hampton
23. North Dakota
24. Villanova
25. Portland State

Incommunicado

Sorry I've been away but since Saturday my Internet went down, I lost power and my cell phone died! Yikes! I'll be back a little later this morning to put up my new Top 25 polls. --Nate

Big Hit

Anyone see the hit Jahvis Best took from Maryland yesterday? Check it out here. I gave you the abbreviated clip. This clip doesn't show you Best rolling around for another two minutes and then a close up of him puking on the field. Big hit.

This is Water

I'd like to dedicate today's whiny, griping post to David Foster Wallace, a favorite writer of mine, who hanged himself yesterday, and whose Kenyon College Commencement speech is the inspiration for this post's title and can be read here.

Let me begin by saying (just as Barack Obama and Joe Biden for some reason seem to feel the need to begin each speech by praising McCain's service) that yes, I feel compassion for the people of Houston. I realize on a larger scale there are always far more important things than a football game. Yes, even a playoff game.

With that said, let me point out that there is very little that the NFL can do in the way of the larger, more humanitarian issues here. They ultimately are tasked with resolving the situation of where, when, and how to best resolve the scheduling issues caused by Hurricane Ike. Call me a cynic, but I don't believe that up in their Manhattan board room Roger Goodell and the rest of the NFL's brain trust made any comments with regard to the well being of the people of Houston that wasn't secondary, incidental, or in passing. You can be assured that whatever decisions were made were made from a distinctly business perspective.

The error in their ways came when they tried to play the situation by ear. They made the decision on Thursday to postpone the game to Monday, leaving it in Houston, hoping that there would be changes in the forecast and that all would be fine come Monday. This decision was obviously naive. However, it was also strategically flawed. Suppose it was going to be possible to physically play the game in Houston on Monday. When were the Ravens to fly in? How were the Texans to prepare for the game? They would most likely be bunkered down or preparing to evacuate their families. They were going to be TRAPPED in Houston for the weekend.

I'll forgive the NFL for attempting to keep the game in Houston. That should be the first goal. However, it was obvious to most people come Friday morning that Ike was a 500 - 900 mile across storm aimed DIRECTLY at the city of Houston. The game was not going to be played in Houston. Not on September 14th, at least.

So what are the remaining options? Move the game or postpone it and switch bye weeks around. The objection to moving the game? The Texans lose a home game. If it is moved to Baltimore, the rest of the AFC North can complain about fairness just as others complained when the Giants got 9 Home games after Katrina. I get that. That is a valid opinion. But there is recent precedent to move the game to a neutral sight. A few years back the Chargers played a "home" game in Arizona due to wild fires. It is just hard for me to understand how the NFL can argue against recent (very recent!) precedent.

And if the argument is fairness, what is fair about the results of this. We can all agree that now the Ravens and the Texans are going to go through an entire NFL season without a bye week. There are three benefits to a bye week. Physical rest, mental rest, and the ability to take time to extra plan for your next opponent. The Ravens and Texans receive none of these benefits from our week two "Bye". Maybe physical, but they spent the week practicing as normal, so I fail to see any rest being significant. Not only do they have to play 15 straight games now, they have to play 5 of 6 on the road in October/November. This sets both teams back and gives other teams an advantage over us. So the decision is clearly not made with fairness in mind.

My problem is that if this is made to keep the Texans schedule as close to its original form as possible, then it is a fruitless attempt. Guess what. This is going to be a bad season for them now. They are going to struggle all year due to this storm and it's effects. Their stadium may not be available for a month, their coaches and players will be displaced, the city will struggle for some time... So what the NFL did is screw over the Ravens and Bengals (and give everyone else an advantage over Houston and Baltimore) in order to futilely attempt to save the Texans' season.

So why was this decision really made? It clearly wasn't about fairness. It clearly wasn't about empathy for the city. It was made by default. It was made because Roger Goodell has bought into his own hype. He believes he is the ultimate commissioner, that whatever decision he makes is golden. So he thought he could put the game off, save Houston their home date and he would look brilliant and better than Tagliabue. But in the end, he caused a bad situation to turn worse. He delayed and failed to be decisive. In the end, he failed. And failed big.

I submit to you non-Ravens fans who think I'm just whining and it isn't that big of a deal our schedule. When reading below, bear in mind that we now have 15 games in a row. Nate will point out that that used to be common. Fine, I say. But it's not fair that only two teams have to do so. So look at this middle chunk of our schedule:

10/12: AT Indy
10/19: AT Miami
10/26: Home against Oakland
11/02: AT Cleveland
11/09: this was supposed to be a bye but is now AT Houston
11/16: AT New York Giants

That's 3 straight road games and 5 of 6 on the road!

Tell me how you'd feel if the Skins were put in this situation, Nate?
I'll just say it one last time - I get it. This was an unwinable situation. An act of God that changed everything. I get that, but I think the NFL should have minimized its effect. Instead they maximized it. They should have bit the bullet now. Moved the game - accepted that inevitablity - and then this week would be the only one affected. It was obvious that no matter what they did, the Texans would be significantly disadvantaged this season. So what did they do? Caused a ripple effect that increased the disadvantage to both teams and (and this is the big point) failed to fix anything. There was no real benefit to this result.

Goodell's failure was thinking he could find a fix all. In actuality, he needed to realize there wasn't going to be a perfect situation. He needed to wake up, look around and realize, "This is water!" and then deal with it and minimize its effects, not perpetuate them.
Oy vey. I'm done, sorry for bitching.

Mark's Jessup Lockdown

You know what they say in Maryland - Go big or go home! OK, nobody in Maryland has ever said that phrase. We say things like, "What a nice lawn." and "Have you been to Towson lately? It's totally different. They have a Panera!"

But regardless, I'm going big today and calling a lock of the week on the game of the century.
I gave Nate the money line to take Ohio State and I'm backing it up today. I'm calling for USC to more than cover the 11.5 point spread on TOSU. Look for Tressell to try and come out with a conservative game plan today due to the injury to Wells and the fact that he flew across the country to play the #1 team. He's going to want to eat the clock and take the crowd out of it. But USC will quickly score and things will get out of control before he can adjust to it. Give me the home team that had extra time to prepare and doesn't have the injury to its star player in a big game like this.

Under (37.5) Baltimore @ Houston
Talk about game of the century! I know calling for the under to hit on a Baltimore v. Houston game isn't exactly the boldest of predictions. But if this game actually gets played, look for a tepid crowd and an unenthusiastic performance from both teams. This game will be as lively as those carrots that have been sitting in the bottom of my fridge for months. The Houston players will be tired physically and mentally and Baltimore - well they'll be Baltimore. I look for a little bit of a let down performance coming off of the opening week. The game will be played just as if it's only being aired in two markets - which it is. Baltimore 13 Houston 6.

Maryland (+14.5) vs. Cal
This is, for all intents and purposes, Maryland's season today. Not that they're going anywhere if they win, but they've been planning this game for years. For some reason, they consider it a coup to get Cal on their schedule. Look for Maryland to take advantage of a Cal team that is three hours behind them and score some unlikely points. Cal will prevail, but Maryland will tease its fans with a surprising performance. The Fridge has a few tricks in his arsenal that he's been saving for today.

Lockdown: Week 3

By Nate Sandstrom

About to leave for the Twins game so here is the quick and dirty with explanations coming tomorrow a.m. Don't worry, I'm hot.

Auburn -10.5
Missouri -26.5
Vikings +2

Upset special: Ohio State +375