Heisman Watch — Oct. 7

By Nate Sandstrom

I'm leaving my mock ballot for this week unchanged and have high hopes for 2008 Heisman Bowl I, Sam Bradford vs. Colt McCoy, otherwise known as Oklahoma vs. Texas. There will of course be several more Heisman Bowls in the Big 12 season but this one may be the most important.

The media exposure around this game is huge. The noon kickoff time will be broadcast in every U.S. TV market, and with all the guys vying for the Heisman Trophy it helps to get exposure early.

I'm not making any predictions on this until Friday and I have to DVR the game, but I will look forward to watching quarterbacks completing 80 percent of their passes. For whatever it means, Oklahoma won the EASports simulation 38-20.

Meanwhile, Chase Daniel still leads the ESPN poll. He also leads at Heismanpundit, but Bradford is #2 and McCoy #3. My ballot:

My ballot:

1. Sam Bradford, So., QB, Oklahoma. 205 passer rating (#2), 72%, 18 TD/3 INT for 1,665 yards.

2. Chase Daniel, Sr., QB, Missouri. 196.4 passer rating (#5), 76%, 15/1 for 1,665.

3. Colt McCoy, Jr., QB, Texas. 197.9 passer rating (#4), 79%, 16/3 for 1,280

4. Javon Ringer, Sr., RB, Michigan St. Javon Ringer 164.7 ypg (#2), 12 rush TDs (T-#1).

5. David Johnson, Sr., QB, Tulsa. 214.8 passer rating (#1). 69%, 23/5 for 1,682.

For more NCAA stats, click here.

Major Gloating: It's feeling awfully 1980s around here

They say everything comes back in 20 year cycles. Maybe that includes Redskins football.

For the first time since I was in junior high, I feel like Washington can beat anybody. Sure, they've made the playoffs two of the last three years but I never felt either of those teams could do better than pulling a few upsets to land them in the NFC Championship Game. They didn't even get that far.

Portis is running the ball like he did when he was a rookie, and Campbell is showing poise I never expected he would develop when Washington took him out of Auburn. Santana Moss didn't have a catch yesterday, but Zorn has been getting him the ball in space and letting him use his speed.

And the defense is also playing good enough, despite injuries to Marcus Washington, Shawn Springs and Jason Taylor.

They've gone 4-1 despite having gone to the Giants, Cowboys and Eagles, as well as hosting NFC playoff contenders Arizona and New Orleans. DC is a-buzz. They are 13.5-point favorites this Sunday. When was the last time the 'Skins were two-TD favorites?

I've always been more of a "negative Nate" than a "positive Pete," but for now I'm going to sit back and enjoy the 'Skins crushing the Rams, Browns and Lions (combined 1-11) the next three weeks and moving to 7-1. Zorn will keep their focus, and I'll do all the looking ahead for them. And this year they shouldn't have to go to Seattle for the playoffs!

FCS Top 25 — Oct. 6, 2008

By Nate Sandstrom

This weekend was quite filled with upset story lines of the last one, especially since the biggest impact upset happened Thursday when Pitt went to South Florida and killed the Bulls hopes of a national title game appearance.

I didn't get to watch a ton of football Saturday as I was in Madison for Ohio State-Wisconsin. A good game overall, although I think by the end of the season neither of these teams may be ranked. I have to admit that after Wisconsin CB Allen Langford picked off a pass on OSU's second drive I thought the Badgers had it. The 20-17 defeat was Coach Beilema's first home loss as a head coach (third year).

It was also the first time in like 40 years that the band wasn't there as well and it was weird. Half of going to college games is the ceremony, the pomp and circumstance. It's still not determined if they will be back for this week's game against Penn State, also in prime time but apparently moved from ABC to ESPN.

For-now starting QB is apparently on a short leash. Good, says this Badgers fan.

Before I headed out to tailgate I also caught parts of Indiana at Minnesota, Iowa at Michigan State, Kansas at Iowa State and Penn State at Purdue. Late night, I saw Fresno blow a home game to Hawaii. Quick thoughts:

• Minnesota is just one win from bowl-eligibility after winning a sloppy game against the Hoosiers. Coming off a 1-11 season it's good progress for second-year coach Tim Brewster; however, there will be no easy win for them the rest of the way as they go to Illinois, Purdue and Wisconsin and host Northwestern, Michigan and Iowa. Still, they should get one of those to get to 6-6.

• Going into the season I thought Indiana junior QB Kellen Lewis was an NFL prospect. Saturday, he was splitting time with sophomore Ben Chappell. He also had a key fumble. It may be a long year for the Hoosiers.

• Iowa State reversed their usual style of starting slow and jumped out to a 20-0 lead on Kansas at the half. They then played their usual first-half swiss cheese defense in the second half rather than the first as Kansas came back for a 35-33 win. This game, combined with S. Florida's loss, has Kansas dropping way down in my poll.

• All right. It's 4th and 1 on your opponents 21 with 2:16 left. You can tie the game with a field goal, completing a 13-point rally. Kirk Ferentz went for it. Was stuffed. And Iowa had lost three straight. By a combined nine points. Short sentences are annoying.

I was saying kick it and go to OT, but Ferentz apparently got a vote of confidence today, so I guess he will be out by the end of the year. Don't expect him to get a job handicapping, the Hawks will still be favored at Indiana.

• Penn State looked sloppy in their 20-6 win, but I have a feeling they will step it up in Madison this weekend.

• Fresno State's resume looks a little worse each week. The opening win at Rutgers and a narrow home loss to Wisconsin looked good in mid-September. It doesn't look so great now, especially after getting taken to 3OT by Toledo, scraping out a win at UCLA and losing at home to previously 1-3 Hawaii.

Now this week's FCS Top 25: (W-L, last week's rank)
1. Oklahoma (5-0, 1). Making their schedule look easier than it is.
2. Alabama (6-0, 2). Avoided dangerous trap door game, so props for that.
3. Missouri (5-0, 3). Broke 50 in four of five games now.
4. LSU (4-0, 4). When are these guys going to play?
5. Penn State (6-0, 5). Rest of conference may drag down terrific team.
6. Texas (5-0, 6). Colt McCoy is more accurate than Tom Brady.
7. Texas Tech (5-0, 7). Will look to score 200 over next 3 games before Longhorns.
8. Vanderbilt (5-0, 11). Can't debate the resume, although this story will end badly by Nov.
9. USC (3-1, 12). No game left on their schedule to vault them pass SEC/Big 12 Champs.
10. Georgia (4-1, 10). Right team, wrong schedule.
11. Florida (4-1, 14). Hate to move them up after they piled meaningless points on Arkansas late.
12. Oklahoma St. (5-0, 20). Don't write them off, even if they lose to Missouri.
13. Auburn (4-2, 15). Does Jason Campbell have eligibility left?
14. BYU (5-0, 16). Overrated nationally, but could win a BCS Bowl on the right night.
15. Utah (6-0, 17). Based on Org. St., should be ahead of USC. But Utah plays too many too close.
16. Tulsa (5-0, 18). This year's Hawaii with a better offense.
17. Boise St. (4-0, 19). Win over Oregon doesn't look as good as it did two weeks ago.
18. Ball State (6-0, 21). Make a joke. This team is legit.
19. Virginia Tech (5-1, 22). Being reminded that every game counts, even ECU.
20. California (4-1, 24). Stupid early-game loss at Maryland. Maybe they should cry too.
21. Pitt (4-1, NR). Now that they're ranked again, they'll probably lose again.
22. Michigan State (5-1, 25). Positioning themselves for New Year's Day Bowl.
23. South Florida (5-1, 8). Need a healthy Selvie.
24. Kansas (4-1, 9). Don't often drop teams who win by 15, but see above Iowa St. comments.
25. South Carolina (4-2, NR). Big win over Miss with big plays on defense.

FCS rankings on the sidebar.

Mark's Week 6 Jessup Lockdown

In honor of O.J. Simpson, I'm not promising these games will be locked down today, but maybe 13 years from now, they'll prove right.

Oregon (+15.5) at USC

The Trogans' defense has held up solidly all season until last week. This week is probably an even bigger test for their defense, going against an Oregon team that is putting up 47 points a game and rushing for 300 yards per game. Last year Oregon pulled off the outright win, but that was at home. This year, Oregon will travel to SoCal and push the hungover Trojans into a close 4th quarter game. USC 35 Oregon 28.

Auburn (-4) at Vanderbilt

Vanderbilt's had a solid season and an impressive win at Rice, but it comes to a stop this week when Auburn comes to town. Vanderbilt will try to run a safe offense against this formidable derfense, but points will be few and far between. By the time they try to open it up in the second half, Auburn will be on its toes waiting for the big turnover and Rice's injured offense isn't going to be able to score when it needs to. Auburn runs away with this one 24 - 10.

New England (-3) at San Francisco

This isn't my most assured lock of the week, but I have a feeling Belichik was not only embarrassed by the outright loss to the Dolphins, he was embarrassed by the way in which he was outcoached by a first year head coach. Look for the Pats to come off of the bye week with several trick plays and a finally open Randy Moss. They'll pound the ball for the first half and then pour on the points in the second half with a flea-flicker or reverse to Moss. San Francisco is giving up 24 points a game and they're down a linebacker and a corner. New England 27, San Francisco 12

Upset Special

Northern Illinois (+500) at Tennessee

I know it's tough to go into the SEC and win on the road, but when Tennessee is limping and their QB is completing and appaling 50% of his passes for only 5 yards per attempt and has only 2 TDs to his 4 INTs, there's a good shot to upset them. Northern Illinois has a solid offense and their defense should be able to hold the Volunteers in check. Tennesee has only scored a total of 18 points in the past two games. NI has only allowed 3 points in thier past two games.
Northern Illinois 21, Tennesee 10

Nate's Lockdown: Week 6

Going to have to be short and sweet because I have to leave for my flight to catch Badgers-Buckeyes in less than an hour. But after a weekend when I went 2-1 (missed Penn State by a point) and hit a 4-1 upset special, I wouldn't want to deprive our readers of more quality picks.

Florida (-24.5) at Arkansas

If you've read my blog frequently, you'd know I've had a beat against Arkansas theory that has paid all year. After Florida lost to Ole Miss, the line is down enough to find value in the Gators. UF will be eager to take out last week's loss on the poor Hogs, who will just have to suffer through a rebuilding year.

Pick: Florida 48 Arkansas 10

Northern Illinois at Tennessee (-16.5)

Northern Illinois obviously has much less talent than the Vols, but they've shown a lot of grit following a down year in DeKalb. They're a few plays from 4-0, and although they will eventually fall short of a great upset, they will hang around enough to make Tennessee Coach Phil Fulmer start to worry about his job.

Pick: Tennessee 27 Northern Illinois 21

Rice at Tulsa (over 80.5)

"Over 80.5!" you say? Well, these two high-flying offenses might hit for a total of 100 points. The teams played in 96- and 97-point affairs last week; they've scored a combined 91 and 79 the last two times they met.

Tulsa's average game has been 55-24, while Rice's average score is 41-34. I smell the century mark.

Pick: Tulsa 62 Rice 41

Pittsburgh at Jacksonville (-4)

Pittsburgh is coming off a short week and an overtime win. Jacksonville is also coming off an overtime win, but at least they didn't lose two players for the season. The Steelers are beat up, and will feel no better after this trip to Florida.

Pick: Jacksonville 27 Pittsburgh 13

Upset Special: Kentucky (+500) at Alabama

I know you think this insane, but have you watched college football the last few years? The Wildcats are under the radar with the graduation of Andre Woodson but they are undefeated. This is the perfect let down spot for the Tide, who showed they can look past a team by the way they fell at home to UL-Moroe last year.

Pick: Kentucky 27 Alabama 23

Now I'm watching this

By Nate Sandstrom
So this morning I was compiling data for our What to Watch sidebar and I came across this Web site, called Are You Watching This?

It appears to be a dream site for lovers of sports on TV. You can create a free account and customize your page so the site will tell you what games are on in your area on the channels you get. But the best part is that it will send you e-mail or texts when the games on TV that you may have switched from get good.

I just signed up today and will give it a full review in two weeks after seeing how it goes.

Mark's Week 4 Power Rankings

1. New York Football Giants - This is reluctant, but if I put my heart's true #1 pick (Buffalo), Nate will fire me. They're ranked 4th in total offense and 4th in total defense. For a defending champ, I have no choice but to put them in this slot.
2. Tennessee Titans - Who'd have thought a team would rally around a QB's supposed suicidal tendencies?!
3. Buffalo Bills - The legendary Tim Russert curse has been lifted?
4. Dallas Cowboys - Reports of their demise (and T.O.'s imminent implosion) are greatly exaggerated. The team played a bad game and had a crappy game plan. Apparently I didn't get the memo that they were supposed to go 16-0. They didn't run Barber enough and they tried to get too fancy with putting T.O. in the slot. They'll get back to their game if they know what's good for them.
5. D.C. - Will Jason Campbell be the next Eli Manning!
6. New England Patriots - I have to believe they're going to come off of the bye and completely destroy San Fran.
7. Philadelphia Eagles - I'm playing the odds here - putting all four NFC East teams in the top seven. One of them has got to be the true contender. I like the Eagles so long as Westbrook is healthy and Desean Jackson is in check.
8. Pittsburgh Steelers - I'm not even sure they're going to win the division any more. Plus, they're seriously injured right now. But I'll leave them up here for now because all you need in the NFL is a QB.
9. Carolina Panthers - Maybe the San Diego game wasn't a fluke after all
10. Chicago Bears - This division is wide open and I like defense
11. San Diego Chargers - I was going to put the Broncos ahead of them, but then I saw the Broncos are ranked 1st in total offense, 30th in total defense. In my opinion, defense - be it good or bad - is more consistent, meaning the broncos are likely to be more bad than good
12. Denver Broncos - They're ranked #1 in offense!
13. New Orleans Saints - Just another team that can score, but can't stop the scoring.
14. Baltimore Ravens - May have lost the game, but the injuries to Steelers may be a win. Damn you, Hines Ward!
15. Green Bay Packers - As long as Rodgers is healthy, they'll be fine. Vegas had clearly decreed that they would lose that game.
16. Indianapolis Colts - Holy crap! I made it to 16 without including the Colts?
17. Tampa Bay Bucs - I don't know what's going on here. Who's on this team? How are they 3-1? Ernest Graham, Brian Griese, Antonio Bryant? Ooooo, I'm shaking in my cleats.
18. Jacksonville Jaguars - My honorary week 5 second favorite team.
19. New York Jets - Still the 3rd best team in the division
20. Arizona Cardinals - So much for the two week stay on the east coast.
21. Minnesota Vikings - They're defense is overrated
22. Atlanta Falcons - 5 wins away from my prediction!
23. Miami Dolphins - I bet Mangini is so jealous he didn't do that to Belichik
24. Seattle Seahawks - They can't be as bad as they look so far.
25. San Francisco 49ers - Beware the Belichik wrath this week.
26. Oakland Raiders - I desperately wanted to put them last thanks to yesterday's debacle with Al Davis, but damn, there are just so many bad teams
27. Kansas City - At least they'll always have that home field
28. Houston Texans - First home game of the season coming up!
29. Cleveland Browns - Wow, Derek Anderson is completing 49% of his passes.
30. Detroit Lions - Finally fired Millen. So this season is a win no matter what happens from here.
31. Cincinnati Bengals - Trade Chad Johnson to Baltimore. (I love picturing Nate reading these)
32. Saint Louis - 30th in 31st in total defense. 32nd in points scored, 31st in points allowed. Wow.

Nate's NFL Power Ratings Oct. 1

By Nate Sandstrom

Remember how much I praised the Big 12 the other day? I'm equally impressed by the NFC East, even though they finally lost a game outside the division on Sunday night. Thus, all but the Eagles are in my top four.

More interesting to readers might be how I stack three NFC South teams in the next five (that may make it hard for Atlanta to win seven games, Mark).

At the bottom of the poll, the Detroit Lions sit at #30 with a status of awfuler. But relax silver and blue fans there may be bright days ahead. And I'm not talking about Matt Millen being sacked, it's that the Curse of Bobby Layne expires in four days. Sorry Cubs fans, that's the only curse ending this year.



1. New York Giants (3-0), OK, OK, I guess I have to admit the Giants are good.
2. Tennessee (4-0). What if Kerry Collins played the Giants in the Super Bowl?
3. Washington (3-1). Thought the first game was still preseason.
4. Dallas (3-1). Man, the NFC East is good.
5. Buffalo (4-0). I guess Mark was right about them after all. Go Lee Evans!
6. Carolina (3-1). How did they lose to Minnesota?
7. San Diego (2-2). Really should be 3-1.
8. Tampa Bay (3-1). Not sure how they're winning, but they are.
9. New Orleans (2-2). NFC South looking as strong as ever.
10. Denver (3-1). Not far from 1-3, but still got wins.
11. Philadelphia (2-2). Pretty early, but really need win over Skins this weekend.
12. Green Bay (2-2). Falling fast.
13. Chicago (2-2). Much better with Hester in lineup.
14. Pittsburgh (3-1). Injuries mounting.
15. Jacksonville (2-2). Not sure what to make of Jags, but I'm guessing 9-7.
16. Baltimore (2-1). Hype of the week: Beltway Superbowl!
17. Indianapolis (1-2). Old. Satisfied. Out of the playoffs.
18. New England (2-1). Seriously, lost by 25 to Miami? At home?
19. New York Jets (2-2). Fav-tastic Sunday.
20. Miami (1-2). Another team I don't know what to make of.
21. Minnesota (1-3). Can Vikings get Mike Tice back?
22. Arizona (2-2). Still highest-rated team in NFC West.
23. San Francisco (2-2). What's an Alex Smith?
24. Seattle (1-2). Can we get Steve Largent back?
25. Atlanta (2-2). Have already peaked for the year.
26. Kansas City (1-3). Why wouldn't you always play Huard?
27. Oakland (1-3). I actually think they might get better.
28. Houston (0-3). I still like Sage over Schaub.
29. Cleveland (1-3). Still awful.
30. Detroit (0-3). Awfuler. Still, things have been worse.
31. Cincinnati (0-4). Awfulest.
32. St. Louis (0-4). Awfulestest. Would be better if they and Oakland were both still in LA.

Heisman Watch: Sept. 30

By Nate Sandstrom
Could the Big 12 season decide the Heisman Trophy winner? I think the answer is yes, as I have 3 Big 12 QB's at the top of my ballot in Bradford, McCoy and Daniels. In fact, the Big 12 is home to four of the nation's top five passers. And six of the top 10. And nine of the Top 20.

Meanwhile, Javon Ringer, who is one of my favorite players not on Wisconsin except for the day he plays Wisconsin, keeps racking up yardage, now posting three straight games with 198+ rushing. That said, I'm a little worried he'll wear out without a second back to spell him this year.

My other top RB this year, Knowshon Moreno, drops after the Alabama debacle.

I looked to Conference USA for the number five spot, ultimately going with Tulsa QB David Johnson, the nation's top rated passer, over Rice WR Jarett Dillard who is a TD machine in the suddenly high-powered Rice offense.

Here's my poll:

1. Sam Bradford, So., QB, Oklahoma. 209.1 rating. 72%, 16/2 for 1,293.
2. Chase Daniel, Sr., QB, Missouri. 193.4 rating. 76%, 12/1 for 1412.
3. Colt McCoy, Jr., QB, Texas.209.7 passer rating. 80%, 14/1 for 1,018. 278 yards rush, 4 TD.
4. Javon Ringer, Sr., RB, Michigan State. #2 rusher with 179.4 ypg and leads the nation with 12 TDs.
5. David Johnson, Sr., QB, Tulsa. 227.2 passer rating is tops in the nation! 73 %, 19/4, 1,505 yards passing with 12.75/att.

My Internet is running really slow tonight, so I'll update who everyone else has on Wednesday.

***Wednesday update****
So ESPN's experts poll looks pretty similar to my mock ballot, with four of our top five the same. Heisman Pundit's poll looks about the same. Neither gives a sniff to David Johnson, who really doesn't have a chance because of Tulsa's weak schedule. I love his numbers though.

FCS Top 25 Rankings

By Nate Sandstrom
I know these are a day late, but I haven't had such a hard time coming up with rankings in a long time. It kind of points to how worthless these early polls are. That said, I think there are now eight front-runners for the national title.

Among them, four are in the Big 12 and have to play each other. LSU and Alabama also have to play each other and will have to face sleeper Ole Miss. Meanwhile, Penn State has to play Wisconsin and Ohio State on the road, but I think they are better than both. South Florida probably has the easiest road right now but they have to play at West Virginia in December and that won't be easy. So maybe my preseason pick of no undefeated teams will hold.

Here's this week's poll.

1. Oklahoma (4-0). Should've been #1 even before USC lost.
2. Alabama (5-0). Will young team keep its focus through November?
3. Missouri (4-0). Glad to be off on a weekend when most of the top teams were getting beat.
4. LSU (4-0). Just once, one of Les Miles' crazy calls has to burn him.
5. Penn State (5-0). Got a win on a night when Illinois brought their A game.
6. Texas (4-0). As under the radar as a Texas team has been in a while.
7. Texas Tech (4-0). Maybe benefitting from high early ranking.
8. South Florida (5-0). Need to increase margin of victory in some of these games.
9. Kansas (3-1). Can get back in it by virtue of playing in Big 12.
10. Georgia (4-1). Insert blackout joke here.
11. Vanderbilt (4-0). Hey, until someone beats them, why not?
12. USC (2-1). I don't want to put them this high, but hard to get a read on them now.
13. Ole Miss (3-2). A few points away from 5-0 with wins over three ranked teams.
14. Florida (3-1). What happened to Tim Tebow?
15. Auburn (4-1). Keep winning, but keeping looking worse in my book.
16. BYU (4-0). One-point win over Washington will come back to hurt them.
17. Utah (5-0). Win over Michigan looks better after Wisconsin loss there.
18. Tulsa (4-0). Just watch this scoring machine one time, it's fun.
19. Boise State (3-0). Will keep cheering for Oregon.
20. Oklahoma St. (4-0). Hey Gundy, you're 20!
21. Ball State (5-0). Maybe Coach Hoke can get on Letterman.
22. Wake Forest (3-1). Tough let down loss to Navy.
23. Virginia Tech (4-1). If they keep winning, they can get back in the Top 10.
24. California (3-1). Ummm, sorry Maryland fans, but in the end Terps only won by 5 at home.
25. Michigan State (4-1). I can't only have one Big Ten team ranked, right?

Lockdown: Week 5

By Nate Sandstrom

Doesn't it figure that the week where I break through on my upset special (Boise State with the win at +320) I pull an unspectacular 1-3. I will point out that North Carolina was cruising before Yates went out.

At least my pick against Arkansas theory finally paid off. I'm going to that well one more time.

Locks
Arkansas at Texas (-27)

It's rare that I would lay 27 points in a border war game; however, the Longhorns average margin of victory is 37.6. You may say, "Ya, but that was against Florida Atlantic, UTEP and Rice."

I respond: Arkansas beat Western Illinois by four and UL-Monroe by one. They trailed in the fourth quarter in both games. Get ready for a long season, Bobby Petrino.

Pick: Texas 55 Arkansas 13

Virginia at Duke (-7)

Duke hasn't beat Virginia since 1999. They've won two games the previous three years. But junior QB Thaddeus Lewis has guided the Blue Devils to a 2-1 start, posting a 5 TD-o INT ration. UVa's QB's have thrown no touchdowns and five picks.

Pick: Duke 31 Virginia 14

Illinois at Penn State (-15)

I'm not quite sure why Illinois is in the Top 25, other than that they were good last year. At the same time, I'm not sure why Penn State is not in the Top 10.

Both situations should be rectified this week. Penn State has putting up points like it's 1994. They'll be eager to avenge last year's loss to Illinois, a game they could have easily won.

Pick: Penn State 48 Illinois 21

Upset Special

Washington (+400) at Dallas

It will likely be the 'Skins last ever trip to Texas stadium. Why not end it with a major upset? After the opening night disaster against the Giants the burgundy and gold have looked much shaper. I know Dallas has been dominant, but in recent matches it also seems like this is a game that Washington gets more up for.

It's possible Washington will get blown out; Romo will definitely get at least one long pass past the safeties. But when you're getting 4-1 for a 2-1 team playing a divisional game, I call it a good investment.

Pick: Washington 31 Dallas 28

Updated standings for Mark and I:

Lockdown:
Nate: 6-6 (-60)
Mark 5-2 (+280)

Upset Special:
Nate: 1-3 (+20)
Mark: 1-1 (+110)

Toss-Up
Nate leads Mark 1-0

Top 25 Rankings

Comments later. Maybe. Nate.

FBS:

1. Oklahoma (3-0)
2. USC (2-0)
3. Missouri (4-0)
4. Florida (4-0)
5. LSU (3-0)
6. Georgia (4-0)
7. Wisconsin (3-0)
8. Penn State (4-0)
9. Texas (3-0)
10. Texas Tech (4-0)
11. Alabama (4-0)
12. Auburn (3-1)
13. South Florida (4-0)
14. Kansas (3-1)
15. Wake Forest (3-0)
16. Vanderbilt (4-0)
17. BYU (4-0)
18. Utah (4-0)
19. Nebraska (3-0)
20. Tulsa (3-0)
21. Boise St. (3-1)
22. East Carolina (3-1)
23. Virginia Tech (3-1)
24. Oklahoma St. (3-0)
25. TCU (4-0)

FCS:
1. Montana (3-0)
2. Furman (3-1)
3. New Hampshire (3-0)
4. James Madison (3-1)
5. Northern Iowa (2-1)
6. McNeese State (1-1)
7. Richmond (3-1)
8. Appalachian State (1-2)
9. Cal Poly (2-1)
10. Elon (3-1)
11. Wofford (2-1)
12. South Dakota State (2-2)
13. Southern Illinois (1-1)
14. Eastern Washington (1-2)
15. Youngstown State (2-2)
16. Georgia Southern (2-2)
17. The Citadel (2-1)
18. Delaware (1-2)
19. Central Arkansas (3-0)
20. Hampton (3-1)
21. Masachusetts (2-2)
22. UC-Davis (1-3)
23. Western Illinois (2-2)
24. North Dakota State (2-2)
25. Northern Arizona (2-1)

Lockdown: Week 4

By Nate Sandstrom

With Missouri having just destroyed Nevada early Saturday, my lockdown picks were 5-1 for the year. An Auburn flub that night and a Vikings collapse a day later, my picks are suddenly a pedestrian 5-3.

Add to that my near miss on UL-Monroe at +450 two weeks ago and the upset special is now 0-3.

Update standings for Mark and I:

Lockdown:
Nate: 5-3 (+170)
Mark 5-2 (+280)

Upset Special:
Nate: 0-3 (-300)
Mark: 1-1 (+110)

Toss-Up
Nate leads Mark 1-0

Onto this weeks picks, which by total coincidence almost totally involve the Tar Heel state. I've also thrown in a bonus pick in an effort to boost my record.

East Carolina (-7) at N.C. State

After narrowly avoiding a loss to Tulane, it looks like the public may be wavering on how good the Pirates actually are. Now that Virginia Tech has looked poor in two games following their opening loss to East Carolina, and West Virginia has lost again, perhaps it's understandable.

But don't fail to notice how bad N.C. State may be. They've been outyardaged by 140 or more in their last three against Division 1-A opponents, going back to last year's 37-0 shutout against Maryland. The Wolfpack won this match-up last year in a game also thought ECU would win, but I think this year the Pirates keep their bid for a BCS Bowl alive.

Pick: East Carolina 27 N.C. State 7

North Carolina (-3) vs. Virginia Tech

The Tar Heels haven't had a winning football team since 2001, but they may have put the nation on notice that they are back after whipping Rutgers in New Jersey 44-12 last weekend. UNC was actually outyardaged by Rutgers, as well as McNeese State in the opener, but their big play capability has Butch Davis' squad back on the map.

Meanwhile, a team know for big plays, Virginia Tech, has certainly lacked them this season. The QB controversy is in full effect as Glennon and Taylor have thrown 1 TD combined. They were outyardaged by 14o in their narrow home win against Ga. Tech last week and I expect the offense to continue their struggles.

Pick: North Carolina 31 Virginia Tech 16

Alabama (-9) at Arkansas

If you've been reading the blog this year, you'd notice that I think the 'Hogs may be one of the most overrated teams in the nation. I called for them to be defeated at home by both 1-AA Western Illinois and two-touchdown 'dog UL-Monroe. Late rallies prevented both picks from coming true, but there will be no rally against the Tide, who are allowing less than 8 ppg.

Pick: Alabama 37 Arkansas 13

Carolina (+3) at Minnesota

Disregard everything I said about the Vikings in this week's faceoff. Sharper, Peterson and Berrian are questionable this week. Rice is doubtful. Frerotte is the starter. Childress is an idiot. Even a time with this much talent in the trenches can't overcome this situation.

Pick: Carolina 20 Minnesota 10

Upset Special: Boise State (+320) at Oregon

As much success as Boise State has had over the past decade, they've never won a road game against a BCS team. But Oregon's QB situation is up in the air again, and we all remember what happened after Dixon went down last year. I'm guessing Oregon will still put points on the board, but costly turnovers will do them in.

Pick: Boise State 37 Oregon 34

Nate's NFL Power Ratings-Week 2

By Nate Sandstrom

This week's power ratings are complete with Chargers fan bias.

1. Dallas (2-0,1). Win against Eagles on Monday reaffirms dominance.
2. Philadelphia (1-1, 4). DeSean Jackson is still good.
3. Green Bay (2-0, 2). Maybe Rodgers is better than Favre. Brian Brohm, too.
4. San Diego (0-2, 3). Robbed!
5. New England (2-0, 6). I still don't believe in Cassel.
6. Pittsburgh (2-0, 5). Unimpressive against Browns.
7. N.Y. Giants (2-0, 8). I guess they actually are good.
8. Arizona (2-0, 12). Just pay Boldin,
9. Buffalo (2-0, 14). Remember 2003? This time, first two weeks may not be fluke.
10. Indianapolis (1-1, 11). Hey, they won the Super Bowl with no run defense.
11. Denver (2-0, 15). I H8 CUTLER!
12. New Orleans (1-1, 7). Brees can't throw that many bad passes again, can he?
13. Carolina (2-0, 9). Undefeated without Steve Smith? Brilliant move Fox.
14. Washington (1-1, 16). Comeback against Saints shows signs of life.
15. Minnesota (0-2, 13). 2nd half meltdown frustrates, but I'm not giving up on them.
16. Chicago (1-1, 10). Hester's hurt. Uh-oh.
17. Jacksonville (0-2, 18). May be one of those disappointing years.
18. Tampa Bay (1-1, 20). Why does Gruden hate all his QBs?
19. San Francisco (1-1, 29). Somehow the second-best team in NFC West.
20. N.Y. Jets (1-1, 17). Over-spended! Over-spended!
21. Baltimore (1-0, 24). Would've gone to Super Bowl if it wasn't for that hurricane. Just ask Mark.
22. Houston (0-1, 21). Ask the 2005 Saints how dealing with a hurricane works out?
23. Tennessee (2-0, 19). You will all know Chris Johnson soon.
24. Cleveland (0-2, 25). Greenberg actually refered to them as a Super Bowl contender this spring. That's one example of why I favor Fox Sports in the morning. (1370 in B-more).
25. Seattle (0-2, 22). Memo to Jim Mora Jr.: Ask Dad how to talk about losses after the game. It will make things more fun. For me.
26. Miami (0-2, 23). What if they actually lost more games this year?
27. Atlanta (1-1, 26). At least they got Detroit and KC in the first three weeks.
28. Oakland (1-1, 32). Kiffin is still a goner.
29. Detroit (0-2, 27). Awful. See Faceoff below.
30. Kansas City (0-2, 28). Football fan in two years: "Who's Larry Johnson?"
31. Cincinnati (0-2, 30). How were they ever good, even briefly?
32. St. Louis (0-2, 31). They're a 10-point underdog at Seattle!

Faceoff: NFC Noth

By Nate Sandstrom and Mark Goldman

After a brief hiatus, welcome back to another edition of Faceoff. This week's guest is Dr. Kent Sandstrom, who may not hold a Ph. D. in football, but at least knows enough to be in the lead in Nate's pick 'em league.

Nonetheless, Nate's father, a longtime Vikings fan, has some questions about his purple and gold's prospects in the confusing NFC North:

1) Can we "stick a fork" in the Vikings after their 0-2 start, particularly given the one-dimensional offensive approach favored by Brad Childress? Or, can the Vikes trust AP to find a way to get them to the playoffs? In a related vein, should the Vikings give up on the Tavaris Jackson project?


Mark says:

You can stick a fork in them for 2 reasons. 1)They won't win the division (the Packers are far and away the better team) and 2) the NFC is too deep for them to win a wild card. We saw the shootout in Dallas last night. The NFC East is stacked from top to bottom and the NFC South has two very good teams in Carolina and New Orleans. I still like the Vikings to get to 8-8 on the back of Adrian Peterson. While I don't think Tavaris Jackson is very good, I think Childress's conservative offense is hurting him even more. Childress is trying to reign Jackson in and the result is a predictable, defendable passing game. Though he will throw more picks, they should let Jackson loose and live and die on his ability to win the games. You don't win games when you try to hide your QB. We know that too well in Baltimore.



Nate says:

First of all, don't ever stick a fork in a viking, it may cause them to raid your village. Secondly, there's no reason to panic after two close losses to two quality teams. Expect the third game to be the charm against Panthers this week, even if the Panthers know they don't really have to defend against the bomb.

That said, it would be helpful if opponents did have to worry about the deep ball. It's hard to know whether the lack of that threat is a conservative approach favored by Childress or the Vikings inability to pick out the right QB (See Brooks Bollinger, John David Booty, Kelly Holcomb and others under the Childress tenure). Add to that injuries to Rice and Berrian and the deep ball is now even less a threat. Regardless, they're stuck with Jackson for now, but he's not bad enough to prevent the rest of the team from rallying to finish 10-4.

2) Are the Packers for real this year? Can they make the playoffs with Aaron Rodgers as their QB? If so, would Mike McCarthy deserve coach of the year honors?


Nate says:

It would be hard to name a coach coming off a 13-3 year Coach of the Year the following campaign. That said, the Packers have thus far exceeded my expectations, staving off comeback-attempts against division opponents in back-to-back weeks.

The Packers definitely look like the favorite in the NFC North, but how will this club handle a losing streak, if they have one? What will the locker room say after Aaron Rodgers first three-INT game? This team seems poised enough to avoid any "What if Brett was here?" distractions, but that question still hangs over the team as a potential poison pill.


Mark says:

The Packers are absolutely for real. And they won't win despite Rodgers, they'll win because of him. He'll be a better QB this year than Favre would have been. It doesn't hurt that he's surrounded by one of the most well-rounded teams in the whole league. Good receivers, RB, line and defense. I'll give the coach of the year honors to Ted Thompson for coaching Mike McCarthy through the Favre mess this summer.

3) Can 'da Bears bounce back from their 2007 debacle? What are their chances of winning the NFC North?


Mark says:

The Bears have 37.5 % chance of winning the division. Their week one win was a little overblown. The Colts aren't exactly the team we're used to. But the Bears have a good chance to make it exciting this year. If they get through September with only one more loss, they could go 5-3. Starting October 5th, they have 2 games against the Lions, one against the Falcons, and one at home against the Vikings. I like their chances to pull out 3 wins there and get on a roll. I could easily see the Vikings falling apart this season and the Bears sneaking into second place in the division.


Nate says:

Let's just say I'll let Mark place the bet on the Bears winning the division when we are in Vegas this weekend. Sure, the defense is playing well again, and Orton seems not to be giving the ball up like Grossman did (apparently that is now Greg Olson's job).

However, Devin Hester's ribs are not good, even if he is playing. If Chicago loses the threat he provides to run the ball back, then it will cost the Bears field position. Another year of sub-par offense in Chicago means this team will be competitive but ultimately miss the playoffs.

4) What are the major strengths and weaknesses of each team in the North? Do any teams in this division have a realistic chance of making the Super Bowl? Why or why not?


Mark says:

The Bears major weakness is stil their QB. Their strength remains Defense and Devin Hester. This is a good enough team that if the got hold of a legit QB somehow, they could make a real playoff run. Packers have very few weaknesses. I think Ryan Grant is a little overblown as a running back and their D-line isn't the biggest, but it's a very balanced team.

The Lions' strength and weakness is John Kitna. He has the ability to throw the ball successfully, but the problem is they think he's better than he is and for that reason they have failed to develop a well-balanced attack. They need to learn to grab a lead and hold it with a stubborn running game. Vikings? Well, their weakness is someone named Tavaris Jackson. Their strength? Someone named Adrian Peterson. I don't know that I've seen two players with such polar opposite skill before.


Nate says:

I'm not sure the Lions have any strengths. It's certainly not the front office. Why else would the draft a good-looking rookie and Kevin Smith, cut Tatum Bell, sign Rudi Johnson, then bring in Shaun Alexander and Cedric Benson. Fortunately this team isn't good enough to get to overtime, otherwise they would kick-off to start the extra frame again.

As for the rest of the teams, the Packers are the only legit Super Bowl contender. I agree with Mark's earlier post that the NFC East is totally stacked. It looks like the 80's may be coming back and the NFC East will again dominate the conference for a few years.

Heisman Watch: Sept. 16, 2008

By Nate Sandstrom

Sam Bradford's second straight 5-TD performance has him jumping into the lead on my mock ballot this week after Knowshon had a mediocre game against SC.

Javon Ringer moves into the Top 5 this week, despite a low ypc. I expect more games like last week for him though.

My full ballot:

1) Sam Bradford, So., QB, Oklahoma. 214.4 rating fueled by nearly 80 percent completion and 12/2 ratio.
2) Chase Daniel, Sr., QB, Missouri. 197.5 rating with 10/1 ratio. Mizzou-OU could be Heisman Bowl.
3) Knowshon Moreno, So., RB, Georgia. So-so game at SC, but many more chances to show his talent. Still has 6.6 ypc and 7 TD's.
4) Javon Ringer, Sr., RB, Michigan State. After 282-yard show he is firmly on the radar. Cal game looks worse after Bears lost at Maryland, but Ringer has a nose for the end zone and will keep putting up numbers.
5) Brandon Tate, Sr., WR, North Carolina. All-purpose All-Star averages 30 yards per time he touches the ball.

Meanwhile, Heisman Pundit lists Chase Daniel as the favorite, since he's a senior. Daniel also leads at ESPN.

Top 25 Rankings — Sept. 15; and a defense of the Big Ten

By Nate Sandstrom

So the conventional sports talk story that came out of the college football weekend was that the Big Ten doesn't have the athletes to compete with USC or any other big conference school.

Of course if you accept that as fact, how do you explain Michigan beating Florida in the Capital One Bowl last year? Or that Wisconsin has taken two of its last three against SEC teams? By the way, Penn State has won their past two bowl games vs. the SEC. Over the past three seasons, the Big Ten and SEC have split eight bowl games. Hardly a dominating SEC performance, even if they won the past two national title games.

As for USC, sure they have a good run of waxing Big Ten teams. But they have lit up pretty much everyone for the past six years, not just the Big Ten (remember when they beat Oklahoma 55-19 in the national title game?). The Trojans'run certainly doesn't make the Pac-10 necessarily better than the Big Ten. See: Penn State 45 Oregon State 14 a few weeks ago.

What I take from Saturday's USC laugher 35-3 route of OSU is that USC is very good and Ohio State may not be. I've dropped the Buckeyes completely from my Top 25. Is anyone certain they will beat Troy this week if Beanie Wells doesn't play? However, that shouldn't be an indictment on Wisconsin or Penn State or anyone else in the conference.

Here are my latest rankings:

Team (W-L, rank last week)

1. Oklahoma (3-0,1). Despite public perception, OU has probably played the better sked.
2. USC (2-0, 2). Defense was simply dominant. They're off again this week.
3. Missouri (3-0,3). Three straight with 50+.
4. Florida (2-0,4). Tennessee could provide Tebow his first breakout game this year.
5. Wisconsin (3-0, 10). Timely D + opponent's bad kicking = Best road win this season.
6. Auburn (3-0, 5). 3-2 baseball games are more exciting that last week was.
7. LSU (2-0, 6). Now head to Auburn for SEC West control in their conference opener.
8. Georgia (3-0, 7). Have to be underwhelmed by effort at SC.
9. Penn State (3-0, 9). Have played no one, but done so well.
10. Texas (2-0, 8). Low-profile for a Horns team off to fast start.
11. Texas Tech (3-0, 12). Should finally break 50 this weekend against UMass.
12. Alabama (3-0, 14). I can't believe Arkansas has gone so far w/o losing. Roll Tide.
13. South Florida (3-0, 17). Great comeback showed poise.
14. Kansas (2-1,18). I know they lost, but I feel better about them after USF game.
15. Oregon (3-0, 13). Purdue gives Duck early X-mas gift.
16. East Carolina (3-0, 15). Does Saturday's game mean Tulane is better than W. Va.?
17. Wake Forest (2-0, 21). Trip to Fla. St. this weekend for ACC Atlantic favorite.
18. Florida State (2-0, 22). Have yet to be a 1-A team.
19. Nebraska (3-0, 25). Now off to prep for Va. Tech's trip to Lincoln.
20. Vanderbilt (3-0, 23). Half-way to first bowl berth in 26 years.
21. BYU (3-0, NR). Imagine what they would do Tennessee.
22. Utah (3-0, NR). UNLV win looks better. Michigan win looks worse.
23. Oklahoma State (3-0, NR). 23rd in nation. 7th in Big 12.
24. Fresno State (1-1, NR). Tough loss. Lots of season left.
25. Northwestern (3-0, NR). Tyrell Sutton is back.

Meanwhile, in the FCS, that was a slight shake-up after North Dakota State squandered a 10-0 lead at Wyoming for a 13-10 loss. The big game that was to be McNeese St.-Cal Poly unfortunately was ppd. due to Ike. Here's the rest of the rankings.

1. Appalachian State
2. Montana
3. McNeese State
4. Wofford
5. New Hampshire
6. North Dakota State
7. Richmond
8. Delaware
9. Cal Poly
10. Northern Iowa
11. Georgia Southern
12. E. Washington
13. James Madison
14. Southern Illinois
15. Western Illinois
16. Massachusetts
17. Elon
18. The Citadel
19. Central Arkansas
20. South Dakota State
21. UC-Davis
22. Hampton
23. North Dakota
24. Villanova
25. Portland State

Incommunicado

Sorry I've been away but since Saturday my Internet went down, I lost power and my cell phone died! Yikes! I'll be back a little later this morning to put up my new Top 25 polls. --Nate

Big Hit

Anyone see the hit Jahvis Best took from Maryland yesterday? Check it out here. I gave you the abbreviated clip. This clip doesn't show you Best rolling around for another two minutes and then a close up of him puking on the field. Big hit.

This is Water

I'd like to dedicate today's whiny, griping post to David Foster Wallace, a favorite writer of mine, who hanged himself yesterday, and whose Kenyon College Commencement speech is the inspiration for this post's title and can be read here.

Let me begin by saying (just as Barack Obama and Joe Biden for some reason seem to feel the need to begin each speech by praising McCain's service) that yes, I feel compassion for the people of Houston. I realize on a larger scale there are always far more important things than a football game. Yes, even a playoff game.

With that said, let me point out that there is very little that the NFL can do in the way of the larger, more humanitarian issues here. They ultimately are tasked with resolving the situation of where, when, and how to best resolve the scheduling issues caused by Hurricane Ike. Call me a cynic, but I don't believe that up in their Manhattan board room Roger Goodell and the rest of the NFL's brain trust made any comments with regard to the well being of the people of Houston that wasn't secondary, incidental, or in passing. You can be assured that whatever decisions were made were made from a distinctly business perspective.

The error in their ways came when they tried to play the situation by ear. They made the decision on Thursday to postpone the game to Monday, leaving it in Houston, hoping that there would be changes in the forecast and that all would be fine come Monday. This decision was obviously naive. However, it was also strategically flawed. Suppose it was going to be possible to physically play the game in Houston on Monday. When were the Ravens to fly in? How were the Texans to prepare for the game? They would most likely be bunkered down or preparing to evacuate their families. They were going to be TRAPPED in Houston for the weekend.

I'll forgive the NFL for attempting to keep the game in Houston. That should be the first goal. However, it was obvious to most people come Friday morning that Ike was a 500 - 900 mile across storm aimed DIRECTLY at the city of Houston. The game was not going to be played in Houston. Not on September 14th, at least.

So what are the remaining options? Move the game or postpone it and switch bye weeks around. The objection to moving the game? The Texans lose a home game. If it is moved to Baltimore, the rest of the AFC North can complain about fairness just as others complained when the Giants got 9 Home games after Katrina. I get that. That is a valid opinion. But there is recent precedent to move the game to a neutral sight. A few years back the Chargers played a "home" game in Arizona due to wild fires. It is just hard for me to understand how the NFL can argue against recent (very recent!) precedent.

And if the argument is fairness, what is fair about the results of this. We can all agree that now the Ravens and the Texans are going to go through an entire NFL season without a bye week. There are three benefits to a bye week. Physical rest, mental rest, and the ability to take time to extra plan for your next opponent. The Ravens and Texans receive none of these benefits from our week two "Bye". Maybe physical, but they spent the week practicing as normal, so I fail to see any rest being significant. Not only do they have to play 15 straight games now, they have to play 5 of 6 on the road in October/November. This sets both teams back and gives other teams an advantage over us. So the decision is clearly not made with fairness in mind.

My problem is that if this is made to keep the Texans schedule as close to its original form as possible, then it is a fruitless attempt. Guess what. This is going to be a bad season for them now. They are going to struggle all year due to this storm and it's effects. Their stadium may not be available for a month, their coaches and players will be displaced, the city will struggle for some time... So what the NFL did is screw over the Ravens and Bengals (and give everyone else an advantage over Houston and Baltimore) in order to futilely attempt to save the Texans' season.

So why was this decision really made? It clearly wasn't about fairness. It clearly wasn't about empathy for the city. It was made by default. It was made because Roger Goodell has bought into his own hype. He believes he is the ultimate commissioner, that whatever decision he makes is golden. So he thought he could put the game off, save Houston their home date and he would look brilliant and better than Tagliabue. But in the end, he caused a bad situation to turn worse. He delayed and failed to be decisive. In the end, he failed. And failed big.

I submit to you non-Ravens fans who think I'm just whining and it isn't that big of a deal our schedule. When reading below, bear in mind that we now have 15 games in a row. Nate will point out that that used to be common. Fine, I say. But it's not fair that only two teams have to do so. So look at this middle chunk of our schedule:

10/12: AT Indy
10/19: AT Miami
10/26: Home against Oakland
11/02: AT Cleveland
11/09: this was supposed to be a bye but is now AT Houston
11/16: AT New York Giants

That's 3 straight road games and 5 of 6 on the road!

Tell me how you'd feel if the Skins were put in this situation, Nate?
I'll just say it one last time - I get it. This was an unwinable situation. An act of God that changed everything. I get that, but I think the NFL should have minimized its effect. Instead they maximized it. They should have bit the bullet now. Moved the game - accepted that inevitablity - and then this week would be the only one affected. It was obvious that no matter what they did, the Texans would be significantly disadvantaged this season. So what did they do? Caused a ripple effect that increased the disadvantage to both teams and (and this is the big point) failed to fix anything. There was no real benefit to this result.

Goodell's failure was thinking he could find a fix all. In actuality, he needed to realize there wasn't going to be a perfect situation. He needed to wake up, look around and realize, "This is water!" and then deal with it and minimize its effects, not perpetuate them.
Oy vey. I'm done, sorry for bitching.

Mark's Jessup Lockdown

You know what they say in Maryland - Go big or go home! OK, nobody in Maryland has ever said that phrase. We say things like, "What a nice lawn." and "Have you been to Towson lately? It's totally different. They have a Panera!"

But regardless, I'm going big today and calling a lock of the week on the game of the century.
I gave Nate the money line to take Ohio State and I'm backing it up today. I'm calling for USC to more than cover the 11.5 point spread on TOSU. Look for Tressell to try and come out with a conservative game plan today due to the injury to Wells and the fact that he flew across the country to play the #1 team. He's going to want to eat the clock and take the crowd out of it. But USC will quickly score and things will get out of control before he can adjust to it. Give me the home team that had extra time to prepare and doesn't have the injury to its star player in a big game like this.

Under (37.5) Baltimore @ Houston
Talk about game of the century! I know calling for the under to hit on a Baltimore v. Houston game isn't exactly the boldest of predictions. But if this game actually gets played, look for a tepid crowd and an unenthusiastic performance from both teams. This game will be as lively as those carrots that have been sitting in the bottom of my fridge for months. The Houston players will be tired physically and mentally and Baltimore - well they'll be Baltimore. I look for a little bit of a let down performance coming off of the opening week. The game will be played just as if it's only being aired in two markets - which it is. Baltimore 13 Houston 6.

Maryland (+14.5) vs. Cal
This is, for all intents and purposes, Maryland's season today. Not that they're going anywhere if they win, but they've been planning this game for years. For some reason, they consider it a coup to get Cal on their schedule. Look for Maryland to take advantage of a Cal team that is three hours behind them and score some unlikely points. Cal will prevail, but Maryland will tease its fans with a surprising performance. The Fridge has a few tricks in his arsenal that he's been saving for today.

Lockdown: Week 3

By Nate Sandstrom

About to leave for the Twins game so here is the quick and dirty with explanations coming tomorrow a.m. Don't worry, I'm hot.

Auburn -10.5
Missouri -26.5
Vikings +2

Upset special: Ohio State +375

Mayland High Schools: Week 2

I can't believe more people were not talking about defending 1A champ Dunbar (Baltimore) being upended in their season opener on Monday at Gwynn Park (Prince George's).

The 33-32 loss was the Poets' first in twenty-some games. They came from behind late to take a 32-37 lead, but apparently then gave up a 74-yard TD pass with 3:12 to play, the Gazette reported.

Highly-touted Tavon Austin was apparently held to 79 yards. We'll see how they rebound this weekend against Mervo.

In another Baltimore vs. PG County match-up, Edmondson-Westside topped Friendly 16-7.

Another reloading state champ, 2A's River Hill Hawks didn't get much of a test on Friday, as they crushed 42-7. Wake Forest-bound RB Michael Campanaro scored three TDs and Central Michigan-bound RB Malek Redd scored another in a 42-7 win at Atholton.

This week they will take on Oakland Mills, who appear to be in another rebuilding year after falling 42-3 to Marriott's ridge last week.

An interesting Howard County game to watch on Friday will be Glenelg at Long Reach.

Glenelg ended last year with six straight wins and just missed the state playoffs. They opened the 2008 campaign with a 20-7 win at Mt. Hebron. Long Reach dropped their opener 12-9 to 3A semifinalist Wilde Lake.


Last year's 4A runner-up, Arundel, topped Broadneck, despite losing QB Nick Elko, now at Delaware State. They will travel to Old Mill.

Here is MaxPreps Top 25 for Maryland (all classes).

Nate's Week 1 NFL Power Ratings

I know these are supposed to be out on Wednesday, but since Mark did his Tuesday it all balances out, right? And Mark, I like the Bills too, but #4?

Sorry for no face-off this week, we had some technical difficulties. Without further delay, where I stack them after a mostly boring Week 1:

Team (W-L, previous rank)

1. Dallas (1-0, 3). How do guys like Barber and Felix Jones keep falling to them?
2. Green Bay (1-0, 14). Monday was a statement win, and the margin could have been more.
3. San Diego (0-1, 2). They started 1-3 last year, so no worries here.
4. Philadelphia (1-0, 9). Loving that last place schedule.
5. Pittsburgh (1-0, 13). Was ready for them to fall off, but perhaps I was premature.
6. New England (1-0, 1). Until they lose, I can’t drop them below here. Until they lose.
7. New Orleans (1-0, 6). Defense came up big in the clutch for once.
8. N.Y. Giants (1-0, 15). Almost as many touted RBs as a college team.
9. Carolina (1-0, 12). Delhomme delivers another clutch win.
10. Chicago (1-0, 24). Head on 670 this week? Brandon Lloyd - Comeback Player of Year.
11. Indianapolis (0-1, 4). Team usually starts fast but lost first game. Not a good sign.
12. Arizona (1-0, 21). Seattle’s performance elevates Cards as favorites in the West.
13. Minnesota (0-1, 8). Played sloppy and still had a chance to win the end.
14. Buffalo (1-0). Mark thinks Marshawn Lynch may be better than A-Pete. Not far off.
15. Denver (1-0, 16). Was it just Oakland or have the Broncos improved.
16. Washington (0-1, 10). If they could just figure out the nine-point play.
17. N.Y. Jets (1-0, 25). I laughed a month ago when someone told me the Jets could win 10.
18. Jacksonville (0-1, 5). Note to Del Rio: Run the ball. Again. And again. Just do it.
19. Tennessee (1-0, 19). May have reached the peak of their season.
20. Tampa Bay (0-1, 18). Gave a valiant effort and could improve; 1st place sked is tough.
21. Houston (0-1, 7). Put in Sage.
22. Seattle (0-1, 11). Seneca Wallace can play receiver. And QB. Go Cyclone alums!
23. Miami (0-1, 28). Chad nearly brought 'Phins back, then reminded Jets why they have Favre.
24. Baltimore (1-0, 30). The race for second in the NFC North is on!
25. Cleveland (0-1,23). Will they trade "Charlie Frye" Derek Anderson by trading him to Seattle?
26. Atlanta (1-0, 31). Matt Ryan has media darling written all over him; Turner
27. Detroit (1-0, 20). Forget the Kitna problems, Mark. What about a defense?
28. Kansas City (0-1, 32). Gave Pats a game, but couldn't convert from the 5. Makes them #28.
29. San Francisco (0-1, 27). Who will try Mike Martz next?
30. Cincinnati (0-1, 22). Yo, receivers! Spend more time catching, less time whining.
31. St. Louis (0-1, 26). They may finish behind both Mike Martz and Kurt Warner.
32. Oakland (0-1, 29). Anyone else ready to write off JaMarcus Russell?

Mark's Week 1 Power Rankings

Since we didn't do a preseason power rankings, I tried to make this list without any preconceived notions of how the teams were going to perform. Hence, the highly ranked Bills. OK, now let me have it.

1. Cowboys - The only big time team that didn't suffer a loss or major injury (or both!) They take this spot by default
2. Steelers - Ben Roethlisberger's shoulder is sore. I guess that's what happens when you go nearly perfect.
3. Packers - They didn't dominate like some other teams, but they were playing everybody's favorite trendy pick. And the only question they had going into the season was answered. Aaron Rodgers can throw a bullet and make some plays.
4. Bills - With Brady down, this division could be up for grabs and don't think so fast that it's the Jet's to take.
5. Chargers - Tough, tough loss. But after watching the game, I still think they were the better team that day. It was a classic case of the better team losing to a two-minute drill. It happens and this team still has plenty of talent.
6. Eagles - Well, at least we got to enjoy one year of slightly less pompous Eagles fans.
7. Patriots - After only 10 years of sitting behind - Palmer, Leinart, Brady - Cassell gets his chance to play. It doesn't hurt that he's got Belichik, Moss, and Maroney on his side. He'll do an OK job.
8. Bears - Biggest surprise of the week. Let me be the first to start the Kyle Orton for MVP chant.
9. Colts - Manning wasn't comfortable, and the loss is almost excusable. Until you remember it was at home in a brand new stadium. Not sure what's wrong here, but they still have a grip on the division.
10. Giants - Maybe Manning has bought into his own off-season hype. Or maybe Jacobs is just taking the pressure off him. Either way, they may be better than the crapfest that I predicted.
11. Broncos - They've got some weapons for Cutler, who looks like the best QB to come out of that draft after all.
12. Saints - They're going to win this division, clearly.
13. Jets - Favre says he still doesn't know the playbook. Maybe he shouldn't bother learning it.
14. Panthers - Surprise win, but I don't think they win that game four out of five times.
15. Titans - Kerry Collins to the rescue. Of the team, not phoneless Vince Young.
16. Ravens - After picking the Bengals to win as a lock of the week and then later putting money on the Ravens, I think it's clear I don't have any idea what is going on with this team.
17. Cardinals - Looks like Wisenhunt may have gotten them to the point where they win the games they should win. Next step is winning a few of the rest.
18. Vikings - Meh.
19. Jaguars - They'll rebound from this.
20. Falcons - My 7-9 prediction isn't so laughable, is it?
21. Seahawks - What the F? I think the door might finally be open on this division.
22. Browns - Congratulations to the Browns Fans. That was the first time I've seen the same banner "T.O. has B.O." hung 3 seasons apart.
23. Dolphins - This team will be in football games though it might not show up in the W column. Pennington will be the difference for them this year.
24. Skins - Serious coaching questions still plague them.
25. Bucs - They're a solid team. Garcia will continue to produce, but they're clearly a step behind the Saints in that division.
26. Lions - Pathetic. Kitna is the opposite of Kyle Orton. I know he's playing well, but at what point do they start thinking about life after him. He's won nowhere.
27. Chiefs - I remember when this team was good. Not that long ago.
28. Texans - I am backtracking on Schaub already. He looked pitiful.
29. Raiders - I thought it was all preseason hype, but Russell really did look fat.
30. Niners - O'Sullivan's a step up from Smith. (I had to write something)
31. Bengals - The offense looked like that couple that shows up at a party and can't stand each other but hasn't broken up yet.
32. Rams - Linehan will easily be the first coach to go.

Heisman Watch: Sept. 9, 2008

By Nate Sandstrom

Of course it's too early to do this. Last year, I was ready to give the award to DeSean Jackson at this point. That being said, two of the other guys (Brennan and McFadden) in my Top 5 would up being finalist so who knows?

Tim Tebow was the first sophomore to win the Heisman last year, and maybe it's trend. I've included three sophs on my initial mock ballot.

1) Knowshon Moreno, So., RB, Georgia. Carried the ball just 26 times but for 227 yards and 6 TDs!
2) Sam Bradford, So., QB, Oklahoma. Top dog on #1 team is #8 nationally in pass efficiency with 76.7%, 578 yards and 7/2 ratio.
3) Chase Daniel, Sr., QB, Missouri. 307 ypg total offense in pair of wins on high-powered offense.
4) Nicolas Girgsby, So., RB, Arizona. Racked up 304 and 5 TDs on the ground in the 'Cats' first two contests.
5) Dennis Pitta, Jr., TE, BYU. How about these TE numbers? 21 catches for 361 yards in wins over last year's I-AA #1 and at Washington.

Others considered: Javon Ringer, Sr., RB, Michigan State; Daryll Clark, Sr., QB, Penn St.; Juice Williams, Jr., QB, Illinois; Jeremy Maclin, So., WR, Missouri


At Heisman Pundit, Beanie Wells is still listed as the favorite; although this weekend is probably a make or break situation for he and USC QB Mark Sanchez. ESPN's Heisman Watch should be out later today.

Quick hits from Sunday

By Nate Sandstrom

Answer me this: Why do so many NFL coaches challenge plays that clearly won’t be overturned in the hopes that the official will find something?

Tony Dungy did it twice tonight. Joe Gibbs did it almost weekly. I’ve never seen it work. If anyone recalls it, let me know.

But that wasn’t my biggest pet peeve of the day. That award goes (surprise!) to Norv Turner. A recreation of my experience:

Approx two minutes remaining. Chargers score a TD to go up 23-19. You have to go for two, right? In case Carolina scores, at least make them make the extra point (See BYU-Washington yesterday. Worst call ever!). Wrong. Norv must have lost his card because he elects to kick and Chargers go up 24-19.

A few minutes later, Carolina scores as time expires. No XP needed. Idiot! Even though they made the unnecessary kick, I would have liked to see Kasay have to make it when it counted.

My other quick thoughts from today:

• Why do I always overrate Detroit and Houston going into the season?
• Seattle looked terrible. Hasselbeck was 6-20 in the first half. Kerney was repeatedly bottled up.
• This may finally be Arizona’s year.
• Carson Palmer looked worse than Seattle, Detroit and Houston combined. Does that make Baltimore good or Cincy really, really bad?
• I should’ve bet $1,000 on Dallas at Cleveland.
• The Pats are screwed without Brady.
• Kyle Orton just wins.
• Reality sets in. The Redskins definitely look like they will finish last in the NFC East.

Nate's Top 25 polls FBS/FCS

By Nate Sandstrom

Added rankings for I-AA teams this week.

FBS Top 25 (W-L, Last week)
1. Oklahoma (2-0, 1). After Cincy win is West Coast trip to Seattle to face the Huskies.
2. USC (1-0, 3). One week prep time for Game of the Century vs. OSU can’t hurt.
3. Missouri (2-0, 5). Could close September with 200 points.
4. Florida (2-0, 6). Coach Meyer knows his spreads. Off week before visit to Rocky Top.
5. Auburn (2-0, 4). Will have revenge on mind after last year’s upset vs. Miss. State.
6. LSU (1-0, 7). Postponement could means no bye week later this year.
7. Georgia (1-0, 8). Now the meat of schedule with back-to-back trips to S.C. and Arizona St.
8. Texas (2-0, 11). I keep saying Arkansas will lose, but this week ‘Horns should do it.
9. Penn State (2-0, 16). Scoring like it’s 1994.
10. Wisconsin (2-0, 13). Can’t come out flat at giant-killing Fresno State.
11. Ohio State (2-0, 2). Let’s hope Saturday was a look-ahead situation.
12. Texas Tech (2-0, 10). Only 41.5 ppg? What’s happening in Lubbock?
13. Oregon (2-0, 15). No Stewart? No Dixon? No problem.
14. Alabama (2-0, 9). D looks strong and will want shut out v. W. Ky. this week.
15. East Carolina (2-0, 25). Probably the nation’s most impressive resume.
16. Cal (2-0, 24). Now an East Coast trip to Md. Call Middle Tennessee for advice.
17. South Florida (2-0, 12). Bulls survive. Big East looks waaaay down this year.
18. Kansas (2-0, 17). Flying under the radar before Friday showdown at Bulls.
19. Arizona (2-0, NR). Scored 34 or more in 5 of 6 going back to last year.
20. Virginia Tech (1-1, NR). Loss to ECU looks better. Will their offense?
21. Wake Forest (2-0, 20). Clutch wins like Saturday make for magic seasons.
22. Florida State (1-0, NR). UT-Chatt now last tune-up before Wake game.
23. Vanderbilt (2-0, NR). Yes, that Vanderbilt.
24. Arizona State (2-0, NR). Must avoid pre-Georgia trap vs. Stanford.
25. Nebraska (2-0, NR). Va. Tech 9/27, Mizzou 10/4. Then we’ll know if Huskers are really back.

FCS Top 25:
1. North Dakota St. (2-0)
2. Appalachian State (1-1)
3. Montana (1-0)
4. McNeese St. (1-1)
5. Southern Illinois (1-0)
6. Wofford (2-0)
7. New Hampshire (1-0)
8. Massachusetts (2-0)
9. Cal Poly (1-1)
10. Richmond (1-1)
11. Delaware (0-1)
12. Eastern Washington (0-2)
13. Northern Iowa (1-1)
14. Georgia Southern (1-1)
15. Western Illinois (1-1)
16. James Madison (1-1)
17. Elon (1-1)
18. The Citadel (1-1)
19. Central Arkansas (2-0)
20. South Dakota St. (1-1)
21. UC-Davis (0-2)
22. Portland State (1-0)
23. Montana State (1-0)
24. Hampton (1-1)
25. South Dakota (1-1)

Sunday a.m. thoughts

By Nate Sandstrom

There's so much to note about this weekend, yet I have so little time. Hanna past through Baltimore with relatively little damage it seems (except for the part where it sent my patio umbrella into my fence) and it looks like my fall softball league home opener is on!

That means no tailgating on opening day for me, but at least have 7 or so hours of Direct TV to look forward to.

Had to work yesterday so I didn't get to see much of much other than the Miami at Florida game. How about Coach Meyer doing Gator-bettors a favor by kicking a meaningless field goal to cover the spread! Way to be up on Vegas coach!

I could go on all day about once-proud Miami's descent into football also-ran but like I said, I've got softball this morning. Wish me luck!

Lockdown — Week 2

With the passing of Fajita and Nate's crazy post-vacation work schedule, Lockdown is abbreviated this weekend with no toss-up and with almost no gloating about what an awesome weekend Nate had this past weekend.

Standings:

Locks:
Nate 2-0 (+200)
Mark 1-1 (-10)

Upset special:
Nate 0-1 (-100)
Mark 0-1 (-100)

Toss-Up
Nate 1-0
Mark 0-1

Nate's picks:
Bowling Green (-5.5) vs. Minnesota
Temple (+6.5) vs. Connecticut
Tennessee (+3) vs. Jacksonville
UPSET SPECIAL: UL-Monore (+450) at Arkansas

Mark's picks:
Florida (-22.5) vs. Miami
Cincinnati (-1.5) at Baltimore
Dallas (-5.5) at Cleveland
UPSET SPECIAL: Georgia Tech (+210) at Boston College

Mark's NFL Predictions

This year's NFL Predictions are dedicated in loving memory of Fajita Goldman, who passed away this morning. She was a feisty gal, a fan of the Ravens (favorite player - Ed Reed), and she loved to go out on a limb. So with that in mind, I've decided to take a few chances here and make a few unexpected picks (particularly in the NFC South). I didn't want to pick the same old predictable results, so I decided the Panthers will have a devastating injury somewhere and their aging defense will fall apart. Meanwhile, I decided to predict the Falcons will shock the world on the back of Michael Turner and go 7-9. I desperately wanted to pick the Ravens to beat expectations, but I think injuries will be a big problem again for them this year, especially in the secondary. I didn't play out the entire playoffs, but I am calling for the Chargers to meet the Cowboys in the Super Bowl. Chargers prevail in an exciting game 41-35.

.


Go Ravens!




AFC East
Patriots (14-2)
Jets (9-7)
Bills (8-8)
Dolphins (4-12)

AFC North
Steelers (10-6)
Bengals (6-10)
Browns (6-10)
Ravens (5-11)

AFC South
Colts (13-3)
Jaguars (13-3)
Texans (8-8)
Titans (5-11)

AFC West
Chargers (12-4)
Broncos (9-7)
Chiefs (4-12)
Raiders (4-12)

NFC East
Cowboys (11-5)
Eagles (9-7)
Giants (8-8)
Skins ( 6-10)

NFC North
Packers (11-5)
Vikings (8-8)
Lions (7-9)
Bears (4-12)

NFC South
Saints (12-4)
Bucs (8-8)
Falcons (7-9)
Panthers (5-11)

NFC West
Seahawks (10-6)
Cardinals (9-7)
49ers (6-10)
Rams (5-11)

Nate's 2008 NFL Picks

By Nate Sandstrom

Sorry to take most of the week off, but it was my full intention to blog while in North Carolina this weekend. Technical difficulties ensued.

Because its just two hours from the kickoff of the NFL season I'm going to come back to the explanation for these on Friday and Saturday. But here are the predictions in raw form (in cases of ties, NFL tiebreakers determine ranking):

NFC
1. Dallas 13-3
2. New Orleans 10-6
3. Minnesota 9-7
4. Seattle 8-8
5. Washington 10-6
6. Philadelphia 10-6
7. Carolina 9-7
8. St. Louis 8-8
9. Arizona 8-8
10. Green Bay 8-8
11. Chicago 8-8
12. Detroit 8-8
13. San Francisco 7-9
14. Tampa Bay 6-10
15. N.Y. Giants 6-10
16. Atlanta 4-12

AFC
1. New England 14-2
2. San Diego 12-4
3. Indianapolis 11-5
4. Cincinnati 7-9
5. Houston 9-7
6. Jacksonville 9-7
7. Denver 9-7
8. Buffalo 8-8
9. NY Jets 8-8
10. Miami 7-9
11. Tennessee 6-10
12. Cleveland 6-10
13. Pittsburgh 6-10
14. Oakland 5-11
15. Baltimore 4-12
16. Kansas City 3-13

Offensive MVP: Tom Brady, QB, New England
Defensive MVP: Jared Allen, DE, Minnesota
Offensive Rookie of the Year: Dustin Keller, TE, NY Jets
Defensive Rookie of the Year: Chris Long, DE, St. Louis
Coach of the Year: Gary Kubiak, Houston Texans

Wild-card Playoffs
(6) Philadelphia over (3) Minnesota
(4) Seattle over (5) Washington
(6) Jacksonville over (3) Indianapolis
(4) Cincinnati over (5) Houston

Divisional Playoffs
(1) Dallas over (6) Philadelphia
(2) New Orleans over (4) Seattle
(1) New England over (6) Jacksonville
(2) San Diego over (4) Cincinnati

Conference Finals
(2) New Orleans over (1) Dallas
(2) San Diego over (1) New England

Super Bowl
San Diego over New Orleans
Super Bowl MVP: Phil Rivers, QB, San Diego

Temporary Layoff

I know you're all clamoring for another edition of Face Off, but this week Nate is on his second honeymoon down in beautiful Outer Banks. So this week we're taking off as we prep for our unveiling of the season predictions edition tomorrow. So take this moment to say good bye to your wives, apologize to your bosses, stock your fridge, laugh at the Ravens QB situation, adjust fantasy roster, and whatever other annual pre-NFL traditions you may have. Enjoy today, your last day of freedom before the grip that is football takes hold of your life.

I hope you're more prepared than Joey Harrington looks in this picture:

Actually, I think Daunte would benefit from the media translating his message

Read and laugh

Lockdown -- Week 1

By Nate Sandstrom and Mark Goldman

So I guess I have to eat a little humble pie after calling for the Redskins to win in Carolina. They of course were destroyed, 47-3.

But it was preseason for me too. And even though I'm usually awful in Week 1, I'm betting I can beat Mark. So here you go, Nate's plan to win cash on Labor Day Weekend:

• Utah (+3) at Michigan

If you read my preseason picks, you know how I feel about Michigan this year. Now they're starting a walk-on QB? Utah is much better than App. State was last year, so why not make losing at home at Week One a new Michigan football tradition.

Nate's Pick: Utah 24 Michigan 13

• USC (-19.5) at Virginia

Last year, Virginia became the first team in NCAA history to win five games by two points or less. It was a near miracle that the Cavs won nine games, and now that they have lost 11 starters, including virtually their whole offensive and defensive lines, USC takes this in a walk.

Nate's Pick: USC 41 Virginia 10

• Upset Special: Kent State (+345) vs. Boston College (in Cleveland)

This is the game to play for the homerun this week. Kent State returns 16 starters and will be pumped-up for this challenge against a BCS team. BC loses 12 starters, but looks past a MAC opponent in this one.

Nate's pick: Kent State 19 Boston College 17

Here's Mark's picks:

• Oregon (-13.5) vs. Washington

Washington has lost to Oregon in their last four attempts. By an average of 23 ppg. Last year Oregon went crazy, winning 55-34 with unreal performances from their stars who combined for 465 rushing yards on 62 attempts. Jonathan Stewart and Dennis Dixon are gone now, but Oregon has a deep set of running backs in Blount, Johnson and Crenshaw. Look for Oregon to follow last years script and ram it down Washington's throat.

• Pittsburgh (-13) vs. Bowling Green

Last year Pittsburgh cried their way to a 5-7 record as they watched Joe Flacco lead the Blue Hens to a season few dare to even dream of! This year Pittsburgh should be much improved with 15 returning starters. They've won 10 of their last 11 home openers and that should continue this year against the Falcons.

• Upset Special: Northern Illinois (+270) at Minnesota

If there's such thing as a misleading 1-11 record, I haven't seen it. That's what we have in the Minnesota Gophers, who will take more than just a summer to improve. What a daunting task for them to take on a 2-10 team! In a battle of bad teams, I like the team that's going from just three senior starters last year to 21 starters returning and 20 seniors with starting experience. Look for N.I. to show up and eek out a win.

Last, but not least we have a toss-up —Fresno State at Rutgers (-5)

Nate says: Take Fresno State. Coach Hill has taken his Bulldogs to plenty of road wins against BCS teams in the past. He will have the Bulldogs motivated and Rutgers' loss of Ray Rice makes the difference in the season opener for two experienced teams.

Mark says: Get a surfboard and go to the beach, you damn dirty hippie. Fresno will come to Jersey and get punched in the mouth. Rutgers will have a hard time replacing Ray Rice, yes, but as Nate says, these are experienced teams and pretty well matched up. I like the home team vs. the team that hasn't traveled farther east than Ohio since before 2000. Rutgers takes it all in the Game of the Century!

Five Bold Predictions for the 2008 College Football Season

By Nate Sandstrom

We're just a few hours from the kickoff of the 2008 season, and I couldn't be more excited. I'll be interested in seeing how South Carolina's offense comes out of the gate after struggling so badly late last season. Anyway, here's the final installment of my preseason preview, with "Five Bold Predictions."

1) Losing the last two national title games will cost this year's Ohio State team.

If you read my last post, you'll see that I have Clemson, Oklahoma and Ohio State all finishing the regular season with one loss. In the two weeks between Ohio State finishing their regular season and Clemson and Oklahoma playing in their respective conference championship games, I predict there will be a lot of pundits and writers complaining about the prospect of seeing Ohio State lose badly in a title game for the third straight year. I expect that complaint will weigh on voters, and Ohio State will drop from #1 to #3 in the polls after Clemson and Oklahoma each win their conference title games.

After a Big Ten team is leapfrogged by a conference championship for the second time in three years (Florida passed Michigan in '06), the conference will step up efforts to recruit a 12th team in the upcoming offseason. But they will not bend from otherwise finishing the regular season before Thanksgiving.

2) Michigan will be this year's Notre Dame.

Some people will be shocked to see me slating Michigan to finish just 3-9 and last in the Big Ten. But most people probably wouldn't have have believed Notre Dame would finish 3-9 in 2007.

The Wolverines return just 10 starters; they lose their top 2 passers and receivers, top rusher and top four tacklers. Add to that a new coach in Rich Rodriguez (who went just 4-7 his first year at W. Virginia) with a new offense and I smell disaster.

3) Temple will win as many games (including a bowl win) as they have over the past five years.

How often have you seen a team return 22 starters, plus their kicker and punter? How about bringing back 53 of 55 letterman?

At many schools such a scenario would have the students calling for a national title. But when you are one of the NCAA's perennial losers, your goals have to be a little more modest. And the Temple Owls have not gone bowling since 1979. Prior to going 4-8 last year, they won just four games in the previous four years.

I think a favorable schedule and experience will help to get the Owls build off last year's progress. They get back to a bowl for the first time in three decades and exact revenge on Connecticut for a loss they suffered because of a bad call. One of the year's "feel-good" stories.

4) No one will be this year's Hawaii or Boise State, but BYU and Tulsa will come close.

It might not be "bold" to say that no non-BCS Conference team will go undefeated, but it has happened two years in a row. The team I rate with the best chance to make it three straight years is Tulsa, despite the loss of QB Paul Smith.

The Golden Hurricane return nine starters from an offense that scored 576 points in 14 games. The defense was not so good in 2007, but the unit should be adequate against what Phil Steele ranks as the nation's easiest schedule (toughest games vs. Central Florida, at Arkansas). Alas, I have Tulsa being upset in the Conference USA title game in a rematch with UCF.

The other team I predict running the table until its final game is the BYU Cougars. They also return nine starters from a prolific offense, and have just #86-ranked schedule by Steele. However, they have to play Utah on the road, where I am calling for them to be upset and also bounced out of a conference championship (lose tie-breaker to Utah).

5) Western Illinois will pull the opening weekend stunner by going to Arkansas and pulling out the upset for Coach Don Patterson, who is undergoing treatment for tonsillar cancer.

Maybe its a sentimental pick, but I think there is real reason to think this could happen. Arkansas will be playing their first game with Coach Bobby Petrino and more importantly without Darren McFadden, Felix Jones and Peyton Hillis.

W. Illinois was just 6-5 last year, but that was in the quality FCS Missouri Valley conference. They return 20 starters and if they are able to get a couple of takeaways I think they can edge out a win.


There you have it. We will have to see how I fare. Enjoy the season everyone!

Nate's 2008 college football predictions — Part 2: Bowls and Final Top 25

By Nate Sandstrom

Alright, back from a sweet O's trouncing of the Sox. In the meantime, I finished the bowl slots and so here you have it:

For the second straight year I'm taking the Oklahoma Sooners to be national champs. I'll get into this more during my five bold predictions, which have been pushed back to Thursday evening (it's late here on the East Coast).

Bowl picks:

BCS Title Game: #1 Oklahoma 30 #2 Clemson 24
GMAC Bowl: #25 Tulsa 41 Northern Illinois 21
Fiesta Bowl: #8 Texas Tech 58 #13 Wisconsin 45
International Bowl: Bowling Green 34 Rutgers 31
Sugar Bowl: #4 Auburn 28 #9 West Virginia 20
Liberty Bowl: Ole Miss 20 Central Florida 13
Cotton Bowl: #11 Texas 27 #15 LSU 24
Orange Bowl: #10 South Florida 27 #6 Florida 21
Rose Bowl: #4 USC 31 #3 Ohio State 23
Capital One Bowl: #7 Georgia 27 #16 Penn State 17
Gator Bowl: Florida State 31 Notre Dame 14
Outback Bowl: #18 South Carolina 20 Iowa 10
Chick-Fil-A Bowl: #17 Virginia Tech 40 #19 Tennessee 20
Insight Bowl: Illinois 30 Texas A&M 17
Music City Bowl: Alabama 21 Miami 13
Sun Bowl: Arizona 31 Kansas 30
Armed Forces Bowl: TCU 28 SMU 14
Holiday Bowl: #12 Missouri 37 #14 Oregon 30
Texas Bowl: UTEP 28 Kansas State 24
Humanitarian Bowl: #22 Boise State 34 Boston College 21
Alamo Bowl: Northwestern 44 Nebraska 41
Papajohns.com Bowl: Cincinnati 34 Kentucky 17
Independence Bowl: Oklahoma State 23 Mississippi State 14
Emerald Bowl: Cal 27 Maryland 17
Champs Sports Bowl: Michigan State 27 #21 North Carolina 20
Meineke Car Care Bowl: Pitt 21 #20 Wake Forest 14
Motor City Bowl: Troy 37 Central Michigan 35
Hawaii Bowl: Oregon State 35 Hawaii 13
Poinsettia Bowl: #24 BYU 44 Arizona State 28
New Orleans Bowl: East Carolina 37 Florida Atlantic 30
Las Vegas Bowl: #23 Utah 40 Nevada 21
New Mexico Bowl: Fresno State 34 UNLV 17
Congressional Bowl: Temple 28 Connecticut 24
St. Petersburg Bowl: Louisville 48 Marshall 31

Predicted Final Top 25 poll:
1. Oklahoma 13-1
2. USC 11-2
3. Auburn 12-2
4. Clemson 12-2
5. Georgia 11-2
6. Ohio State 11-2
7. South Florida 12-1
8. Texas Tech 11-2
9. Texas 11-2
10. Missouri 10-2
11. Florida 11-3
12. Virginia Tech 11-3
13. West Virginia 10-3
14. South Carolina 9-4
15. LSU 9-4
16. Wisconsin 10-3
17. Penn State 9-4
18. Boise State 12-1
19. Oregon 10-3
20. Utah 11-2
21. BYU 12-1
22. Tulsa 13-1
23. Florida State 9-4
24. Michigan State 9-4
25. Tennessee 8-5