Faceoff: AFC South

By Nate Sandstrom and Mark Goldman

Last year, the AFC South was one of two divisions in football to have each team finish .500 or better and send three teams to the playoffs. This year, the reward for last season's success is that they face the second-, third-, eighth- and tenth-most difficult schedules; however, each team returns most of their core players.

This week, our special guest is Zack Sopradi, a Madden addict who is an Indiana-born, lifelong Colts fan (sorry if "Indiana-born, lifelong Colts fan" phrase bothers you Baltimore). Zack has the following questions about this year's AFC South race:

1) Can the AFC South send three teams to the playoffs again?

Nate says:

There is certainly enough talent in this division for its team to claim both wild card spots. But as mentioned above the difficult schedule (including six games against each other, four against the NFC North, four against AFC North) will be an obstacle.

The Colts will probably be the Colts and win the division but I can see them losing 5-6 games this year. In Jacksonville, Jerry Porter will not provide the spark in the passing game needs. I was high on rookie DE Quentin Groves before the draft but he struggled in his first start, while first-round pick DE Derrick Harvey has yet to sign. I expect them to be in the range of 7 to 9 wins.

I think the Titans defense will be even better, but I don't expect much improvement from the offense, so I expect a 9-7 finish like last year. I love the Texans as an under-the-radar team this year, who can win 10 games if Andre Johnson stays healthy all year; though they still have run game issues. It will be interesting to see what rookie RB Steve Slaton does after a disappointing senior season.

So will the south send three teams to AFC playoffs this year? Probably not, but if teams like Buffalo, Denver, etc. — who were in a tier below last year — don't catch up then maybe.


Mark says:

Yo-Yo Mr. S! I don’t want to say yes because it seems highly implausible for that to happen in back to back seasons bro, but I look around the AFC and don’t know who is going to step up. If you assume the Colts, Chargers, Pats and Steelers win their divisions, (Sorry, Browns fans, but Mark's not a believer yet) then who takes the wild card spots? Not the Raiders, Chiefs, Dolphins or Ravens (that makes up for it, Browns fans. Wait, do we have Browns fans reading this blog?) That leaves just the Bengals, Browns, Jets, and Broncos and maybe the Bills to push the South for these spots. Now, I don’t think the South’s schedule is that hard considering they get the AFC North, which I believe to be the weakest in the conference. OK, I’ve convinced myself. The answer is indubitably yes.


2) How healthy will Marvin Harrison be this year and how much does his presence on the field matter to the Colts playoff run?

Mark says:

Yo-Yo Mr. S, it's going to be bad. Harrison will be 50 percent healthy and he'll miss exactly five games. What Nate seems to forget is the answer to question #1! This division is no longer the lock for the Colts it once was. They need to be full throttle this year. Seriously, Harrison will probably be fine, but if his knee swells up in week 9 and he has to get it drained and miss 3 weeks, you'd better pray that no other receivers are already down.

Nate says:

I think Harrison will start at least 14 games this year and be a presence. But even if he isn't healthy remember this: Harrison caught 20 passes last year and Indy still managed to finish 13-3. I also look for WR Anthony Gonzalez, he scored 4 TD in the last six games last year, to show improvement.


3) Who will end the season as the Houston Texans starting quarterback?

Nate says:

I think that Sage Rosenfels (disclosure: Iowa State bias) deserves a chance to be a starting quarterback in the NFL, unfortunately for him the only way it happens in Houston is if Matt Schaub gets hurt.

I like Matt Schaub and think he still may turn out to have an OK career. So far this preaseason he is the most accurate passer with 20+ attempts. But consider some of these stats:

• Rosenfels threw 15 TD in seven games last year, trailing only Brady and Romo in TD/gm.
• Over the last two years he's completed 25-31 in the red zone for 14 TD vs. 1 INT.
• He's the anti-David Carr. He's been sacked just 6 times in his last 246 passing plays.

After Houston's investment in Schaub, I know that he will start. And the question is who WILL END THE YEAR as the Texans starting QB, not who SHOULD START IT. Still, my answer to both is Sage. I'll predict Schaub goes down by Week 9 and Rosenfels plays well enough not to lose the job when Schaub is back.

Mark says:

Snap Nate, not even Brett Favre will be missed in GB the way Schaub was missed in Atlanta last year. And while he went on to yawn his way into the hearts of many a Texans fan with his average play, it was his first season in a new system and he'd only been a two-game starter prior to that, dude. I believe with more time to gel with the team, Schaub will show that he is the guy they should have traded for. It takes time to get the right QB in the right place and it is way too early to give up on this one.

As for Rosenfels, sure his numbers slightly edged out Schaub, but this is a factor of what I like to call backup QB inflation. Take Rosenfels's numbers of 15 TDs and 12 INTs (which, mind you, lead to a lower QB rating than Schaub had). If you take these numbers and adjust them for backup QB inflation, you do not get a 40 TD, 27 INT season. I know you can't take any player's numbers from 5 games and extrapolate them out to a full season. However my man, it is especially true for backup QBs, who usually show flashes of potential in spot duy that mysteriously disappear when you remove the term 'backup'.