Lockdown: Year End Bonus

By Nate Sandstrom

There are usually few weeks harder to predict NFL lines than Week 17. There's always an interesting set of factors determining which teams will be motivated to get into the playoffs, knock a team out, carry momentum into next year and so on.

This week, there's no shortage of such match-ups and there's been crazy line movement. Yet, I am about to put a year-high four games on lockdown, with the addition of a great upset special. Am I overconfident because I'm on an 8-1-1 run? Yes. But here we go anyway.

Chicago at Houston (-2.5)

The Bears have eeked out back-to-back overtime wins on the first possession of the extra period. Despite that, they've been outgained by more than 100 yards in each contest. Their luck runs out today in Houston, where the Texans are 11-4 the last two seasons.

Pick: Houston 24 Chicago 13

N.Y. Giants at Minnesota (-7)

My dad has insisted all week that the Vikings will choke like they do every year. I submit to you that their choke was last week, when they lost at home to Atlanta because of four lost fumbles. A key fumble late also did the Vikings in against Tampa Bay, otherwise the Purple may be riding an eight game win streak. Expect the Vikes to hold onto the ball today and the Giants to give minimum effort.

Pick: Minnesota 35 N.Y. Giants 16

Clevleand at Pittsburgh (-11)

Cleveland hasn't scored an offensive touchdown their last five games. The Steelers love to run up the score when they can. This will be ugly.

Pick: Pittsburgh 31 Cleveland 6

Washington at San Francisco (-3)

The Redskins banded together and gave their best effort since Week 5 in upsetting the Eagles 10-3 last week. Yes, a 10-3 win was their best effort. In fact, the 'Skins are averaging just 10 ppg in their last seven. Fat and happy after a win and with nothing to play for, the will get stomped in San Fran by Mike Singeltary and the scrappy Niners.

Pick: San Francisco 27 Washington 13

Upset sepcial: Seattle (+250) at Arizona

Other than a home win over the Rams, the Cardinals have been beaten down the last four weeks. They will be motivated to head into the playoffs on a positive note. However, they'll have to do so against one of the best 4-11 teams in history (Insult/praise? I'm not sure). After being outyardaged by 100+ virtually the entire season, they have turned things around going 3-0 ATS and 2-1 SU in their last three. Seneca Wallace and Mo Morris are taking the offense in the right direction and they should continue to gash the beleaguered Cards D. Also, look for a 'Hawks defensive play to score or set up a short offensive score.

Pick: Seattle 23 Arizona 13