Nate's Lockdowns for Sunday

Mark is dead on below. Washington 23-10, Atlanta 20-14 and I'll take Green Bay 31-14 to cover and go over 41.

Mark's Week 4 Locks

Baltimore (-13.5) vs. Browns: Call me crazy, but I don't think the Ravens D is as bad as it has looked the first two weeks. But the main reason I'm looking for the Ravens to cover the spread is that Cleveland can't stop the rush. They've been out-rushed by an average of 134 yards/game. And Baltimore can run and run in a variety of ways. Also, it doesn't help that Baltimore is like a kid who just got his license. Now that they can score and play offense, they're opening it up. I have a feeling Baltimore won't be ashamed to run the score up a little. Not to mention, Cleveland hasn't covered the spread in their last 10 games on grass. Baltimore 34, Browns 13

Atlanta (+4) at New England: It's simple. I don't think the Patriots are a good team. I've watched some of their preseason and both games against Buffalo and New York. This scheme is just not going to work. Now, maybe this is the week that Belichek will wake up and get back to playing sane football, but even if - their D can't tackle. Look for Michael Turner to run all day over a sloppy defense. Atlanta 28, new England 24

Washington (-6.5) at Detroit: Matt Stafford is throwing 50% completions. And he's got a 1-5 TD/INT ratio. Detroit has lost by 14 and 18 so far this season. If Campbell doesn't turn the ball over and Washington stays patient, they'll win this by double digits. Washington 24, Detroit 13

Nate's Week 4 Sat. Lockdown

Late for work, just wanted to make it official:

USC (-45) vs. Washington State
Illinois (+450) at Ohio State

Nate's Lockdown: Week 3

By Nate Sandstrom

Well, I should have been set up to be ahead for weeks no matter what on my money line picks, but then Leodis McKelvin, one of my favorite players, at least until this past Monday, had to fumble the ball. And thus my Buffalo +550 pick went down in flames. Mark had the nerve to point out that the ensuing New England TD gave me the over, but breaking even on the game is little solace.

So I finished 1-3 ATS last weekend to drop my to an abysmal 2-4 start as well as 0-1 on the Money Line. Combine that start with the abbreviated explanations I'm about to give due to the fact I think I'll have worked more than 35 hours from Friday-Sunday and I don't blame you for staying away. Of course if you do I'll pull a 2-0. No upset special this week.

St. Louis (+10) at Washington: An offense this bad should never be laying 10 points.
Pick: Washington 13 St. Louis 10

Green Bay (-9.5) at Cincinnati: Last week made things crystal clear that the Bengals still suck.
Pick: Green Bay 27 Cincinnati 10

Redskins React Week 1: NY Giants 23 Washington 17

By Nate Sandstrom

I'm adding a new feature this year to Redskins coverage this year that I'm calling Redskins React. Most weeks it will be up on Monday morning but I had to DVR the game and didn't finish watching it until Monday morning so here we are.

Let me start by saying this: The #1 text I recevied from 'skins fans during the game was simply "Campbell sucks." Had I not been working, I probably would've replied "I know."

Campbell was awful, turning the ball over twice, eating sacks and not leading the "O" to a touchdown until the game was over for all intents and purposes. And yes, the offensive line also looked as bad as you remember from the second half of last year. Portis ran into the line for a 1-yard gain about a dozen times just like last year. The Redskins traveled to the Meadowlands and got their butts handed to them despite a close final score, just like last year. The Washington Examiner game coverage expresses a similar sentiment.

So too does this Washington Times piece, which appropriately points out the 'Skins pursued both Cutler and Sanchez in the off-season. The most interesting part of the article was this section:


The most defining and damaging play, however, happened when Osi Umenyiora, the Giants' All-Pro defensive end who missed all of last season with a knee injury, stripped the ball from Campbell, recovered and returned it 37 yards for a touchdown to give New York a 17-0 lead with 2:11 left in the first half.

The Giants also took away the deep pass but, said Zorn afterward of his quarterback, "He's got to get rid of the ball better."

Campbell disagreed. "Everyone says I held on to the ball too long, so I guess I'm supposed to throw it into coverage," he said sardonically.

To which I say, "Sometimes, yes." Campbell doesn't throw many picks but he doesn't throw many TDs either. Fans have taken Gibbs and Zorn to task for not throwing down field enough in recent years, but perhaps the blame lays at Campbell's feet for always checking off to shorter patterns.

Campbell goes on to the Post's Jason Reid about how it is just one game. And he is calling others out for making mistakes, Reid writes.

The only calling out I noticed though was center Casey Rabach throwing up his arms in a WTF motion after the Giants showed blitz on a 3rd and 8 and Campbell audibled to a hand off to Ladell Betts that lost yardage. Couldn't find anyone else writing about this but I rewound it twice and Rabach definitely barked at Campbell.

So, if you didn't watch the game and only saw the score know this: Washington's first TD came on a fake field goal. The other came against prevent D while the team was trailing by 13 with less than 2 minutes to go. The one field goal came after a tipped ball was intercepted by Hall who returned it inside the NYG 20 yet the offense did nothing again.

Also of note:
-- The oft-played, over-hyped clip of Brandon Jacobs running over LaRon Landry before being brought down anyway in last year's opener may have sparked a rivalry between the two. Landry delivered a late hit out of bounds against Jacobs early and the two later were in a shoving match. Here's a summary of the fallout.

-- The 'Skins opened as 10.5-point favorites at home against the Rams on Sunday. They've dropped to 10-point favorites at most books since. Remember, St. Louis got one of its only two wins at FedEx last year.

Update

Cassell isn't starting. So double up on the lockdown

Fat Billick

I know this probably isn't a major revelation to you Terps fans, but it just hit me last week: Ralph Friedgen is Brian Billick.

He's somehow managed to get himself a long leash through his early success, but since then he's failed to develop a quarterback or even really an exciting system. For a mediocre ACC team, the Terps have had their fair share of talent: Shawn Merriman, Vernon Davis, Dominique Foxworth, EJ Henderson... and even a starting NFL QB in Shaun Hill. Yet somehow, all that talent has been wasted. I'm not saying the Terps should be a guaranteed bowl pick every year. I'm just saying they've wildly underwhelmed and mostly because they have consistently failed to develop a quarterback or a system. In today's NCAA football, you have to have a clearly defined system. And if you put the right QB in that system, it doesn't matter if he can't throw a football 50 yards on the run.

It's clearly time for Fat Billick to go. Bring in someone with some new ideas. Look what happened to the Ravens just one year after cutting ties with the original.

Unfortunately, we all know this isn't going to happen. Even if they get rid of the Fridge, they've guaranteed his assistant the job (or at least a couple million in buyout), so it's likely the Terps are going to continue to force their boring wannabe NFL system down our throats for quite a while longer.

Week 1 Lockdown

Well, I'm 2-0 in my head this weekend, so let's hope that carry's over to actually documented predictions.

1) Houston (-4.5) vs. NY Jets: Call this the steal of the week. I just don't like starting that rookie QB on the road. To me, Sanchez is a lock to be a bust. If you saw last night's USC/OSU game, you know that USC can make even a freshman QB look good. Sanchez just doesn't have the stuff. Let alone the stuff to win his rookie game on the road. And the Texans are only giving up 4.5 at home!? Are you kidding me? Lock it up. Look for Steve Slaton to run right at (and over) Vernon Gholston. The Jets are already missing Shawn Ellis and Calvin Pace. Word is Gholston isn't looking any better under Rex Ryan's tutelage. The Texans will control the game and protect the ball all day and Sanchez will turn it over twice. Houston 24 New York 13

2) Philadelphia (-2.5) at Carolina: This is another line I don't get. I know they're on the road, but I like the Eagles to continue last year's momentum early this year. I think things will fall apart for them later in the year when McCrybaby throws a fit over Vick's playing time. But I am shocked at how little of a distraction Vick has been so far. I didn't expect him to be T.O. redux, but there is no drama going on already. I also expect Carolina to continue their momentum from last year. This regime is getting old. They need new blood in there. Delhomme/Smith/Fox just don't seem invigorated. Not to mention, Philly is 8-3 against the spread in their last 11 NFC games. And 12-5 in their last 17 road games. Gotta like those numbers. Philly 28 Carolina 15

3) Baltimore (-12) vs. Kansas City: I know it's risky to take this big a number and call it a lock, but I love Baltimore and no team has looked more focused and ready to go than the Ravens this preseason. With Kansas City's QB situation, I like the Ravens to feast early and then sit on the ball all day. I hear Cassell is getting the start. Bad move. If he's not mobile, he could be in for a long day. The Ravens have never beaten the Chiefs in Baltimore. That will change and change big today. Ravens 27 Chiefs 9

Upset Special:
I desperately wanted to take the Skins to stun the Giants for this, but if you look at the trends, there's no way I can justify that pick. So I'm taking the Dolphins to top the Falcons. At +110, I'll take an AFC Playoff team over an NFC playoff team. The Dolphins lack the true talent that they Falcons have, but I like the smart coaching staff of Sparano and the safe QB play of Pennington. Coaches and Quarterbacks. Coaches and Quarterbacks. We say it all the time. Miami 21, Atlana 17.

Lockdown: Week 2

By Nate Sandstrom

Wel1, starting 1-1 isn't great, but if you look around the Web at what the other prognasticators did in Week 1 I'll take essentially breaking even. I'll also take solace that I went 6-4 ATS in my college picks pool -- hopefully a sign I was drawing on the right sources and analyzing correctly in the preseason.

First, a moment to say, WTF Colorado? As I write this they are trailing Toledo 37-10. I can see losing to either in-state rival Colorado State or traditional tough-out at home Toledo, but to lose to BOTH? Coach Hawkins may be in trouble, after all this is Division 1 football.

On to the picks....

Vaderbilt at LSU (-14.5)

Vanderbilt had a story-book year last season, while LSU's year was more like a terrifying nightmare. The vaunted Tiger D was gashed for 30 ppg down the stretch and again struggled at times in the opener at Washington. The performance seems to have infuriated the boys of Baton Rouge though, and I expect good focus from their top-notch recruits in the home opener against the Commodores.

Vandy stuffed the box score last week, but don't be fooled. Western Carolina is among the worst teams in FCS.

How many times will LSU be favored at home over Vandy by this few points in your lifetime. You'll be able to count it on both hands.

Pick: LSU 35 Vanderbilt 10

Purdue at Oregon (-13)

People will be jumping off the Oregon band wagon quickly after the overrated Ducks lost to Boise. Meanwhile, Toledo's apparent win over Colorado may add more credence to the Boilers' three-TD win over the Rockets last weekend.

However, Purdue only outgained Toledo by 42 yards. And while Oregon was dominated at Boise in the first half, a few different bounces and they could've come away with the win.

And think about it this way: Purdue is starting a new QB with a new coach at one of the toughest road venues in the country. The host is going to be mad as hell after losing that game at Boise and the notoriety that followed the Blount punch. And despite the OT game these squads played in West Lafayette last year, the Ducks won the yardage count by almost 100, they just finished -1 in TO.

Pick: Oregon 41 Purdue 14

Denver at Cincinnati (-4.5)

Interestingly enough, when the lines opened for Week 1 so many months ago the Broncos opened 2.5-point favorites. In the meantime, new Denver Coach Josh McDaniels has pissed off everyone he's glanced at while the Bengals are a team on the mend after a few disastrous years. Begals QB Palmer has declared himself 100%, for whatever that's worth, but more importantly the battered Bengal O-Line is showing signs of life and I'll go ahead and call for Chris Henry to haul in a pair of TD's in the start of what could be a bounce-back year in Cincy.

Pick: Cincinnati 30 Denver 13

Upset Special/Lock #4: Buffalo Bills (+550) at New England (over 47.5)

New England seems to be the consensus favorite in the NFL this season, and I'm not hating, I like them a lot too. But I think that secondary is weak, Belichick may be developing a Mike Martz-like aversion to running and as hyped as Tom Brady is, they may be a bit overconfident.

And as skeptical as everyone is about T.O., I expect him to have a big year in Buffalo. Trent Edwards may not be the greatest, but between Owens, fellow deep threat Lee Evans and speedster Roscoe Parrish, the Bills will expose the New England corners.

Brady will come out firing as well, but if they wind up passing 50 times Dick Jauron will be ready for it, and the Bills will be able to outscore the Pats.

Pick: Buffalo 41 New England 34

Nate's 2009 NFL Picks: Pack to Have Last Laugh

By Nate Sandstrom

Well, people have been asking me for weeks who I like in the NFL this year and I've finally run through enough depth charts, schedules and other prognastications to come up with the following prediction: The Pack over the Chargers in the Super Bowl.

I'm hardly going out on a limb picking the Chargers to take the AFC (as I do nearly every season) but I'm sure I'll raise eyebrows by calling for a team coming off a 6-10 season to win the Super Bowl. Here's my reasoning:

-- The Packers' 6-10 mark was deceiving as they lost seven games by four points or less! Meanwhile, five of their six wins were by 10+ points. They also outyardaged their opponents by 17 ypg.
-- The Packers will face the #31-rated schedule in the NFL this year, including a soft start that will allow the defense to adjust to new DC Dom Capers' 3-4 scheme.
-- The defense is mostly healthy and has depth and added talent in a pair of first-round picks. Even if new NT Raji misses the opener with his ankle injury, I expect him to make a big impact this year.
-- Ryan Grant was in camp all year instead of worrying about a new contract and I expect him to improve production and help open up things even more for the ultra-talented Aaron Rogers.

So, there's my case for the green and gold, who I've pegged to best their former franchise QB Brett Favre and the Vikings in the NFC Championship in Minneapolis. Then, they should be able to contain Sproles and the Chargers enough to bring the Lombardi back to Green Bay.

Other predictions:
-- The Seattle Seahawks will pull the biggest turnaround in the league this year, improving from 4-12 to 10-6. As long as the offensive line doesn't suffer too many injuries the passing game should be vastly improved with full seasons from Nate Burleson, Deion Branch and new face TJ Houshmandzadeh. New linebacker Aaron Curry should also add good speed to the D creating havoc against both the run and pass.

-- The Denver Broncos will be a total disaster as Coach Josh McRabbit'sFoot learns he is not Bill Belichick. The entire state of Colorado will beg Coach Shanahan to come back as the squad drops from 8-8 to 2-14. Young Josh better at least beat the Chiefs once or use his insider knowledge to upset the Pats or this team may wind up this year's version of last year's Lions.
-- Speaking of the Lions, mark it down that Matt Stafford turns the ball over 15 times before he reaches the 5 TD plateau. Still, the Lions will pull the season's biggest upset when they win at Minnesota on Nov. 15.
-- Speaking of rookie QBs, the New York Jets are my runner-up to Denver for biggest drop in the standings. I have them dropping from 9-7 to 4-12. I don't see what everyone else does in this defense and I think the Ravens defense will do a lot better without Rex Ryan than Ryan will do without the Ravens. Sanchez will be better than Stafford, but will still struggle.
-- I've got the Vikings finishing with the best regular season record; I probably would've had them close to that even without Favre. The defensive line will wreak havoc, the receivers will improve from last year and AP is just awesome. Still, it's the Vikings and just like the Cubs, they always blow it.

That's it. Read below to see where I have your team, then chuckle and watch it all play out. Enjoy the season!

AFC W-L Con Div
1. San Diego 12-4 11-1 5-1
2. New England 12-4 8-4 4-2
3. Indianapolis 11-5 9-3 3-3
4. Pittsburgh 11-5 8-4 4-2
5. Baltimore 10-6 8-4 5-1
6. Houston 9-7 7-5 4-2
7. Tennessee 9-7 6-6 3-3
8. Cincinnati 8-8 7-5 3-3
9. Jacksonville 8-8 6-6 2-4
10. Buffalo 8-8 5-7 2-4
11. Miami 7-9 4-8 3-3
12. Oakland 5-11 4-8 3-3
13. N.Y. Jets 4-12 4-8 3-3
14. Kansas City 4-12 4-8 3-3
15. Cleveland 4-12 3-9 0-6
16. Denver 2-14 2-10 1-5

NFC W-L Con Div
1. Minnesota 13-3 10-2 4-2
2. N.Y. Giants 11-5 7-5 5-1
3. Seattle 10-6 7-5 4-2
4. New Orleans 9-7 8-4 4-2
5. Green Bay 11-5 10-2 4-2
6. Philadelphia 11-5 7-5 3-3
7. Chicago 10-6 8-4 3-3
8. Arizona 9-7 7-5 4-2
9. Carolina 8-8 6-6 2-4
10. Washington 8-8 5-7 1-5
11. Atlanta 7-9 5-7 3-3
12. Dallas 7-9 4-8 3-3
13. Tampa Bay 6-10 5-7 3-3
14. San Francisco 5-11 4-8 3-3
15. St. Louis 3-13 2-10 1-5
16. Detroit 3-13 2-10 1-5

Playoffs Predictions
Wild Card Round:
#6 Houston 37 #3 Indianapolis 35
#4 Pittsburgh 17 #5 Baltimore 9
#6 Philadelphia 31 #3 Seattle 12
#5 Green Bay 41 #4 New Orleans 31

Divisional Round:
#1 San Diego 28 #6 Houston 14
#2 New England 30 #4 Pittsburgh 17
#1 Minnesota 28 #6 Philadelphia 27
#5 Green Bay 34 #2 N.Y. Giants 17

Conference Championships
#1 San Diego 20 #2 New England 17
#5 Green Bay 27 #1 Minnesota 24

Super Bowl
Green Bay 31 San Diego 27

River Hill/Wilde Lake preview

Our good friend Andrew Conrad has posted a look-ahead to a game tomorrow that could decide the Howard County Championship. He's also conveniently written up a run down on the 14 previous meetings in one of the county's best rivalries.

If I didn't have to work tomorrow night, I would definitely be in the seats for that one. Both schools lost their biggest offensive contributors from the previous season, but MaxPreps lists River Hill as #2 in the state while Wilde Lake checks in at #12.

Meanwhile, in Baltimore County, there's another tilt between perennial powers as #22 Hereford hosts #11 Eastern Tech. Also, #4 Gilman's battle with D.C.-area #1 DeMatha may be moved to Saturday because of the sloppy weather.

--Nate

High School Highlights: First weekend

By Nate Sandstrom

I was stuck working at the store this past Friday so I missed most of the high school action, but I thought I would add to the list of places letting you know about new Arundel RB Joseph Blackwell.

Blackwell transferred from Archbishop Spalding and rushed for 174 yards in scored four TDs in his debut, keying a 34-27 win for the Sun's #3 Arundel over #6 Old Mill last Friday. Below is a YouTube higlight reel he assembled from his frosh/soph years.




Among the big ones to look forward to this weekend .....

-- D.C.-area powerhouse and top-ranked team in Maryalnd DeMatha comes to Baltimore to face-off against top-ranked Baltimore team Gilman.

-- A pair of Howard County teams that appeared in the state finals last year will collide on Friday when defending 2A Champ River Hill puts its 28-game win streak on the line when it travels to last year's 3A runner-up Wilde Lake.

My rankings, thoughts and other fallout from college football's first weekend

By Nate Sandstrom

It may be hard to believe, but college football's second week is less than 32 hours away from kicking off. Lots of good stuff to talk about this weekend, but I'm choosing to start with what was the most fun to watch: Miami's 38-34 win at Florida State.

First off, kudos to whoever decided to move this game back to Labor Day. This was the best rivalry in college football when I first fell in love with the game but it has definitely lost some significance in recent years. Getting the game back in prime time on it's own should help both schools.

As for the game itself, it looks like Jacory Harris may bring back the QB, to "QB U." He kept his cool after a bad bounce interception and despite being forced to play catch up on the road time and time again, impressing the Miami Herald's Greg Cote as much as me.

I'm coming away from the game saying both offenses are pretty good, but the 'Noles upcoming trip to BYU on Sept. 19 and Miami's tilt against Georiga Tech next Thursday may show that the 38-34 score is a sign both defenses are below their schools' standards.

Speaking of top QB effort's, how about Washington's Jake Locker's performance in a 31-23 loss to national title contender LSU. Locker threw for 321 and added another 50 on the ground in the Huskies' upset bid. It looks like new coach Steve Sarkisian will put a more competitive team on the field this year, even if a tough schedule prevents them from bowl eligibility.

Meanwhile, the LSU defense (the one that gave up 30 points per game in their last four in 2008) insist they are better than they played in today's Times-Picayune. Could be a bad sign for Vanderbilt.

If you don't love Greg Paulus, you not want to turn on the mute button any time Syracuse is on TV. Props to 'cuse for nearly pulling the upset against the Gophers this past weekend, but I thought the ESPN crew gave a little too much of the credit to the former Duke PG now Syracuse QB. Syracuse had a good run where they scored 17 unanswered points but much it was through short passing and runs. Paulus finished 19-31 for 167 and tossed a game-defining INT in OT in the loss.

The UTEP-Buffalo game featured yet another example of why they need to lighten up on the unsportsmanlike conduct penalties. Trailing 23-17 late in the fourth quarter, UTEP hit a long TD pass that appeared to tie the game. The Miners were then flagged for excessive celebration; however, it also turned out they had been called for a hold on the play. Both penalties were marked off and UTEP was marched back beyond having a legit shot of scoring at the end. Coach Price was not happy.

As bad as I look for taking Oklahoma to win the national title after their loss Saturday, Cal made me look good for calling them national runner-up. The Bears absolutely shredded the Terps as bad as the score looked. At least I would say scoring 52 points wouldn't indicate being "perplexed."

Wisconsin's big problem last year was QB play, and Badger fans like me hope that the work of Scott Tolzien and Curt Phillips in a 28-20 win against NIU on Saturday indicate there will be fewer problems this year. Tolzien threw for 257 and Phillips carried the ball 4 times for 34 yards. The ground attack was not as good however, as Brown and Clay combined for just 94 yards on 29 carries. Overall, the Badgers jumped out to a 28-6 lead before Northern Illinois got some late scores to make it close.

In case you didn't notice, Illinois apparently has no defense and Missouri doesn't miss Daniel, Maclin, et al.

Not going to get too much into the Heisman Race after one week other than to note that Bradford is probably out due to his injury. We'll see if BYU QB Max Hall can enter the race with a big day against Florida State in two weeks.

Now, for my rankings:

FBS:
1. Florida (1-0). Favorites do just fine in the equivalent of preseason game.
2. California (1-0). Scored 52 against Terps, what will they do to E. Wash.?
3. Texas (1-0). Scored 40+ in 12 of last 15 now. 30+ in 19 of last 21.
4. USC (1-0). About to send 105,000 OSU fans home crying.
5. Alabama (1-0). Made several mental mistakes and still won by 10.
6. Oklahoma State (1-0). Showed persistence in putting away UGa.
7. BYU (1-0). Bradford or not, a hell of a win.
8. Boise State (1-0). Meet Oregon's biggest fans rest of year.
9. Mississippi (1-0). Piled it on Memphis late.
10. Oklahoma (0-1). Definitely hoping Bradford back for Miami game (10/3).
11. Penn State (1-0). Should've beat Akron by more.
12. Notre Dame (1-0). How 'bout that Irish defense?
13. LSU (1-0). Jefferson had very impressive 4th quarter drive.
14. TCU (0-0). If Will & Mary held UVa. to 12, what will TCU do?
15. Georgia Tech (1-0). Face brutal ACC stretch early.
16. Ohio State (1-0). Being AP #8 reflects lazy voting.
17. Miami (1-0). Can Jacory be the next Kelly/Kosar/Vinny/Walsh/Torretta?
18. Georgia (0-1). Under radar is where UnderDawgs like to be
19. Virginia Tech (0-1). May lose 3 of first 7, but still part of ACC hunt.
20. Florida State (0-1). Will still win division.
21. Cincinnati (1-0). Coach Kelly is great.
22. Arkansas (1-0). How quick till media forgives/forgets on Petrino?
23. Tennessee (1-0). Kiffin could ruin this yet.
24. Texas Tech (1-0). Just one more week 'til game with Horns.
25. Baylor (1-0). #25 in the nation, #5 in the Big 12 South.

FCS:
1. Montana (1-0). Upset alert at UC-Davis Saturday.
2. Villanova (1-0). Improbable upset over FBS Temple earns Mayor's Cup.
3. Richmond (1-0). Got a not quite as good FBS team in Duke.
4. Southern Illinois (0-1). Three TO's kill upset bid at Marshall.
5. Northern Iowa (0-1). Oh so close to beating Iowa, moving to #1.
6. William & Mary (1-0). Need to avoid let down this weekend.
7. Appalachian State (0-1). Host McNeese Sat. in FCS GOY.
8. Elon (1-0). Could be their year in Southern.
9. James Madison (0-0). How will they replace 11 graduating starters?
10. Hofstra (1-0). Colonial dark horse.
11. McNeese State (1-0). Less than impressive in ASU tune-up.
12. Jacksonville State (0-1). After GT, Fla. St., things will get easier.
13. Eastern Illinois (1-0). Made statement against Illinois St.
14. Holy Cross (1-0). Don't want to look past Sacred Heart.
15. South Carolina State (1-0). Key Int earns MEAC bragging rights.
16. Massachusetts (0-1). Gave good fight against Wildcats.
17. Central Arkansas (0-1). I expect big things from this squad.
18. North Dakota State (0-1). Played Iowa St. close til 4Q.
19. Wofford (0-1). Won't face many any other D as good as USF was.
20. Harvard (0-0). Biding time 'til Holy Cross game next weekend.
21. Grambling State (0-1). Outyardaged S.C. State by 106 in loss.
22. San Diego (1-0). Toreros need big wins for at-large playoff bid.
23. New Hampshire (1-0). Ball State will test top-notch DL.
24. Weber State (0-1). Five INT's against Wyoming cost them win.
25. Eastern Washington (1-0). From W. Oregon to Cal? Goo.

Lockdown: Return of the Lockdown

By Nate Sandstrom

We're back for more cash, and I'm kicking myself for not kicking off the year on Thursday. I recall thinking to myself, "North Texas is getting 16 1/2 points! What's the money line? Got to be worth a bet." Then I got stuck at work all day, and made no move to call what would've been one of the picks of the year in taking a team coming off a 2-10 year over a team coming off an 11-2 year. Oh well, I have it down in my magazine.

Any ways, I'm not doing an upset special this weeks since I had one I didn't call. Here's the only two I'm rolling out for tomorrow:

Illinois (-6.5) vs. Missouri, in St. Louis

If you glanced at my college football preview, you see that I have Missouri falling all the way down after a pair of exciting seasons, while I have Illinois coming back nearly as strong as their Rose Bowl season two years ago.

Usually in rivalry games I like to take points anytime it's 4 or more, but I hear the Illini look great and graduations have hit Missouri very hard. Illinois easily could have won the past two games in this series as well, so I'm calling this the break through.

Prediction: Illinois 41 Missouri 20

Alabama (-6.5) vs. Virginia Tech, in Atlanta

Speaking of 6.5-point favorites on a neutral site, I'm also picking Alabama. Virginia Tech is young and talented, but after the loss of Darren Evans I think it will take a few weeks for them to catch up.

Prediction: Alabama 20 Virginia Tech 6

College Football Preview/Picks ... in brief

By Nate Sandstrom

Well, college football got underway last night and goes off full bore on Saturday. Below, I’ve tossed one man’s projections for this year’s results by going through game-by-game on the schedule.

Due to having two crazy weeks, most of this is in summary form. You’ll find projections for each bowl game and regular season standings. In the standings, teams in bold are projected to be bowl teams, and teams with a (z) after their name are projected to win their conference championship games. Championship games are included in the conference record, but not standings (i.e. Colorado is listed as 5-4 ‘cause I have them beating Nebraska to earn the North Division bid but then losing to Oklahoma in the Big 12 Championship).

In the FCS section, an (x) denotes a team earning an automatic bid into the playoffs and a (y) indicates a team earning an at-large bid.

I think I’m off to an OK start as I nailed 16.5-point underdog North Texas winning at Ball State last night as well as Boise State beating an overrated Oregon team that has four new starters on the OL. However, I have to humbly admit I had no idea that the South Carolina defense would be able to so thoroughly dominate the Wolfpack.

Some other humble projections:

n Oklahoma will finally shake off their sudden reputation for choking and defeat Cal in Pasadena to win the National Championship. I’m also picking Penn State to get revenge against USC in the Rose Bowl, Florida to best Florida State for a second straight game in the Orange bowl, Boise State to edge BYU in a non-BCS team Fiesta Bowl and an overconfident Ole Miss to narrowly escape a Rutgers upset bid in the Sugar Bowl.

n My picks for top surprise teams are Colorado to win the Big 12 North, Arkansas to go from a losing season to the Chick-Fil-A Bowl, Illinois to bounce back from a losing year to play New Year’s Day on the strength of a second-straight win in Columbus and San Diego State to go from 2-10 to a bowl game.

n Top flops include Oregon settling for the Poinsettia Bowl and Michigan not really turning it around that much to finish 6-6 and land in the Motor City Bowl. I also have Texas losing to both Oklahoma and Oklahoma State; I wouldn’t call it a flop but those in Austin may. Staying in the Big 12, I have both Kansas and Missouri failing to qualify for bowl games.

n Speaking of Missouri, they are among two teams I’m picking to lose games against teams they defeated by more than 50 points a year ago. After defeating Nevada 69-17 last year, I have a Chase Daniel and Jeremy Maclin-less Mizzou squad falling to the Wolfpack. In FCS ball, I’ve got Hofstra turning the tables on James Madison, a team they lost to 56-0 last year, on their way to a playoff bid.

OK, look at them now, laugh at me later.

Bowl Picks:

Championship: Oklahoma vs. California
Rose: Penn State vs. USC
Orange: Florida State vs. Florida
Fiesta: Boise State vs. BYU
Sugar: Mississippi vs. Rutgers
Capital One: Illinois vs. Alabama
Gator: Notre Dame vs. Georgia Tech
Cotton: Oklahoma State vs. Georgia
Outback: Ohio State vs. LSU
Insight: Iowa vs. Colorado
Chick-fil-A: Virginia Tech vs. Arkansas
Liberty: Southern Miss vs. Tennessee
Sun: Texas Tech vs. Arizona
Holiday: Texas vs. Stanford
Alamo: Wisconsin vs. Nebraska
Music City: North Carolina vs. Vanderbilt
Meineke: West Virginia vs. Clemson
Champs Sports: Michigan State vs. Miami
Poinsettia: Utah vs. Oregon
PapaJohns.com: Pittsburgh vs. Auburn
Emerald: N.C. State vs. Oregon State
Independence: Houston vs. Kansas State
GMAC: Western Michigan vs. Tulsa
Hawaii: Nevada vs. Minnesota
Las Vegas: TCU vs. UCLA
Humanitarian: Fresno State vs. UNLV
Armed Forces: Texas El-Paso vs. San Diego State
Motor City: Central Michigan vs. Michigan
Texas: Navy vs. Baylor
New Orleans: Troy vs. Memphis
New Mexico: Akron vs. Air Force
St. Petersburg: East Carolina vs. South Florida
International: Ohio vs. Cincinnati
Eagle Bank: Marshall vs. Wake Forest

Predicted Regular Season Standings

ACC Atlantic Conf Overall
1. Florida State-z 6-3 8-5
2. N.C. State 5-3 8-4
3. Clemson 5-3 7-5
4. Boston College 3-5 5-7
5. Wake Forest 3-5 6-6
6. Maryland 2-6 4-8

ACC Coastal Conf Overall
1. Georgia Tech 7-2 10-3
2. Virginia Tech 6-2 9-3
3. Miami 5-3 7-5
4. North Carolina 3-5 7-5
5. Virginia 2-6 4-8
6. Duke 2-6 3-9

Big East Conf Overall
1. Rutgers 6-1 11-1
2. Pittsburgh 5-2 9-3
3. West Virginia 5-2 9-3
4. South Florida 4-3 8-4
5. Cincinnati 4-3 6-6
6. Connecticut 4-3 5-7
7. Louisville 1-6 4-8
8. Syracuse 0-8 1-11

Big Ten Conf Overal
1. Penn State 7-1 11-1
2. Illinois 6-2 10-2
3. Ohio State 6-2 9-3
4. Wisconsin 5-3 9-3
5. Michigan St. 5-3 8-4
6. Iowa 4-4 8-4
7. Minnesota 4-4 7-5
8. Michigan 3-5 6-6
9. Northwestern 2-6 6-6
10. Purdue 2-6 5-8
11. Indiana 0-8 2-10

Big 12 North Conf Overall
1. Colorado 5-4 8-5
2. Nebraska 5-3 8-4
3. Kansas St. 4-4 8-4
4. Kansas 2-6 5-7
5. Missouri 1-7 3-9
6. Iowa State 1-7 4-8

Big 12 South Conf Overall
1. Oklahoma-z 8-0 13-0
2. Oklahoma St. 7-1 11-1
3. Texas 6-2 10-2
4. Texas Tech 4-4 7-5
5. Baylor 4-4 8-4
6. Texas A&M 1-7 4-8

C-USA East Conf Overall
1. So. Mississippi-z 8-1 12-1
2. Memphis 5-3 6-6
3. Marshall 4-4 6-6
4. East Carolina 4-4 6-6
5. UA-Birmingham 3-5 4-8
6. Central Florida 3-5 5-7

C-USA West Conf Overall
1. Texas-El Paso 7-2 9-4
2. Houston 6-2 9-3
3. Tulsa 4-4 6-6
4. SMU 3-5 6-6
5. Rice 3-5 3-9
6. Tulane 1-7 2-10

Independents Overall
1. Notre Dame 10-2
2. Navy 8-5
3. Army 5-7

MAC East Conf Overall
1. Kent State 5-4 6-7
2. Buffalo 5-3 5-7
3. Ohio U. 5-3 8-4
4. Akron 4-4 7-5
5. Temple 3-5 5-7
6. Bowling Green 2-6 2-10
7. Miami 1-7 1-11

MAC West
1. C. Michigan-z 9-0 11-2
2 W. Michigan 7-1 8-4
3. Toledo 4-4 5-7
4. No. Illinois 4-4 6-6
5. Ball State 3-5 5-7
6. E. Michigan 1-7 1-11

Mountain West Conf Overall
1. BYU 8-0 11-1
2. TCU 7-1 11-1
3. Utah 6-2 9-3
4. Air Force 4-4 6-6
5. San Diego St. 3-5 6-6
6. UNLV 3-5 6-6
7. Colorado St. 3-5 5-7
8. Wyoming 2-6 2-10
9. New Mexico 0-8 1-11

Pac-10 Conf Overall
1. California 9-0 12-0
2. USC 8-1 11-1
3. Stanford 5-4 7-5
4. Arizona 5-4 7-5
5. Oregon 5-4 7-5
6. Oregon State 4-5 6-6
7. UCLA 4-5 6-6
8. Arizona State 3-6 5-7
9. Washington 2-7 3-9
10. Washington St. 0-9 0-12

SEC East Conf Overall
1. Georgia 7-2 10-3
2. Florida 7-1 11-1
3. Tennessee 4-4 7-5
4. Vanderbilt 3-5 6-6
5. South Carolina 2-6 4-8
6. Kentuky 1-7 4-8

SEC West Conf Overall
1. Ole Miss-z 8-1 12-1
2. Alabama 7-1 11-1
3. LSU 4-4 8-4
4. Arkansas 3-5 7-5
5. Auburn 3-5 6-6
6. Miss. State 0-8 1-11

Sun Belt Conf Overall
1. Troy 8-0 10-2
2. UL-Monroe 5-3 6-6
3. Arkansas St. 5-3 6-6
4. Florida Atlantic 5-3 5-7
5. Middle Tennessee 5-3 5-7
6. Florida Int’l 4-4 4-8
7. North Texas 2-6 3-9
8. W. Kentucky 1-7 1-11
9. Louisiana-Laff. 1-7 2-10

WAC Conf Overall
1. Boise State 8-0 13-0
2. Nevada 7-1 10-2
3. Fresno State 6-2 8-4
4. La. Tech 4-4 5-7
5 San Jose St. 4-4 5-7
6. Hawaii 3-5 5-8
7. Utah State 3-5 4-8
8. Idaho 1-7 1-11
9. New Mexico St. 0-8 1-12

Big Sky Conf Overall
1. Montana-x 8-0 10-1
2. E. Washington-y 6-2 8-3
3. Weber State 6-2 8-3
4. Montana St. 5-3 7-4
5. No. Arizona 4-4 5-6
6. Portland St. 3-5 4-7
7. No. Colorado 2-6 2-9
8. Sacramento St. 1-7 2-9
9. Idaho St. 1-7 2-9

Big South Conf Overall
1. Gardner-Webb 5-1 9-2
2. Stony Brook 5-1 7-4
3. Liberty 4-2 6-5
4. Coastal Carolina 4-2 7-4
5. VMI 2-4 4-7
6. Presbyterian 1-5 1-10
7. Charleston So. 0-6 2-9

Colonial North Conf Overall
1. Hofstra-y 7-1 9-2
2. New Hampshire-y 6-2 8-3
3. Maine 4-4 5-6
4. Massachusetts 3-5 5-6
5. Rhode Island 2-6 4-7
6. Northeastern 1-7 1-10

Colonial South Conf Overall
1. Richmond-x 7-1 9-2
2. Villanova-y 6-2 8-3
3. William & Mary 5-3 7-4
4. James Madison 4-4 6-5
5. Delaware 3-5 5-6
6. Towson 0-8 0-11

Great West Conf Overall
1. UC-Davis-y 4-0 8-3
2. Cal Poly 3-1 4-6
3. South Dakota 1-3 5-5
4. North Dakota 1-3 4-7
5. Southern Utah 1-3 3-8

Independents Overall
1. Savannah St. 8-3
2. Bryant 5-6
3. N.C. Central 5-6
4. Old Dominion 3-8

Ivy Conf Overall
1. Pennsylvania 6-1 7-3
2. Harvard 6-1 8-2
3. Brown 4-3 4-6
4. Princeton 4-3 4-6
5. Columbia 3-4 4-6
6. Cornell 2-5 3-7
7. Yale 2-5 4-6
8. Dartmouth 1-6 1-9

MEAC Conf Overall
1. S. Carolina St.-x 8-0 9-2
2. Florida A&M 6-2 8-3
3. Bethune-Cook. 5-3 8-3
4. Morgan St. 5-3 7- 4
5. Norfolk St. 4-4 6-5
6. Hampton 4-4 7-4
7. Howard 2-6 3-8
8. Delaware St. 2-6 3-8
9. N.C. A & T 1-7 2-9
10. Winston-Salem x-x 2-9

Missouri Valley Conf Overall
1. Southern Illinois-x 7-1 9-2
2. North Dakota St.-y 6-2 8-3
3. Youngstown St. 6-2 8-3
4. Northern Iowa 6-2 8-3
5. Western Illinois 3-5 5-6
6. South Dakota St. 3-5 5-6
7. Illinois State 2-6 4-7
8. Missouri St. 2-6 2-9
9. Indiana St. 0-8 0-11

Northeast Conf Overall
1. Albany 6-1 8-3
2. Robert Morris 6-1 8-3
3. Sacred Heart 4-3 6-4
4. Monmouth 4-3 6-5
5. Duquense 3-4 4-7
6. C. Conn. State 3-4 6-5
7. Wagner 1-6 3-8
8. St. Francis 0-7 1-10

Ohio Valley Conf Overall
1. Jacksonville St.-x 7-1 8-3
2. UT-Martin 6-2 8-3
3. E. Kentucky 5-3 6-5
4. Murray St. 4-4 6-5
5. Eastern Illinois 4-4 6-5
6. Tennessee Tech 4-4 5-6
7. Austin Peay 3-5 3-7
8. Tennessee St. 2-6 2-9
9. SE Missouri St. 0-8 1-10

Patriot Conf Overall
1. Holy Cross-x 5-1 10-1
2. Lafayette 5-1 9-2
3. Colgate 4-2 8-3
4. Bucknell 2-4 6-5
5. Fordham 2-4 4-7
6. Lehigh 2-4 3-8
7. Georgetown 1-5 2-9

Pioneer Conf Overall
1. San Diego 7-1 10-1
2. Jacksonville 6-2 8-3
3. Dayton 6-2 7-3
4. Morehead St. 5-3 6-5
5. Butler 5-3 8-3
6. Marist 5-3 6-5
7. Drake 3-5 5-6
8. Valparaiso 1-7 4-7
9. Davidson 1-7 2-8
10. Campbell 0-8 1-10

Southern Conf Overall
1. Appalachian St.-x 7-1 9-2
2. Wofford 6-2 7-4
3. Elon-y 6-2 8-3
4. Georgia So. 5-3 6-5
5. Furman 5-3 6-5
6. Citadel 4-4 6-5
7. Samford 2-6 4-7
8. Chattanooga 1-7 3-8
9. W. Carolina 0-8 0-11

Southland Conf Overall
1. C. Arkansas-x 6-1 10-2
2. McNeese St.-y 6-1 8-3
3. N’western St. 4-3 5-6
4. Texas St. 3-4 5-6
5. S.F. Austin 3-4 5-6
6. Sam Houston St. 3-4 4-7
7. SE Louisiana 2-5 4-7
8. Nicholls St. 1-6 2-9

SWAC East Conf Overall
1. Jackson St. 7-1 8-2
2. Alabama A&M 5-3 6-5
3. Alabama St. 2-5 5-6
4. Alcorn St. 1-7 1-9
5. Miss Valley St. 1-7 3-8

SWAC West
1. Prairie View 7-1 8-2
2. Grambling St. 7-1 9-2
3. Southern 4-3 7-4
4. Ark.-Pine Bluff 3-5 6-5
5. Texas Southern 2-5 2-8

Opening Night!

It's one of my favorite nights of the year — opening Thursday night for college football season. I stayed up until 2 am this morning finishing up my regular season picks, will get to bowl match-ups and I-AA playoffs today and then dig in for the ESPN double header tonight.

Ol' ESPN opens this year's feast with South Carolina visiting N.C. State at 7 p.m. followed by a clash between highly touted teams as Oregon travels to Boise State at 10:30 p.m.

You've also got Indiana hosting Eastern Kentucky on Big Ten Network, and once I have all that digested, I'll post my final picks for National Champs, surprises, busts, etc.

But first it's off to work at the golf course this morning, so I got to run. Happy football season!

--Nate