Lockdown: Year End Bonus

By Nate Sandstrom

There are usually few weeks harder to predict NFL lines than Week 17. There's always an interesting set of factors determining which teams will be motivated to get into the playoffs, knock a team out, carry momentum into next year and so on.

This week, there's no shortage of such match-ups and there's been crazy line movement. Yet, I am about to put a year-high four games on lockdown, with the addition of a great upset special. Am I overconfident because I'm on an 8-1-1 run? Yes. But here we go anyway.

Chicago at Houston (-2.5)

The Bears have eeked out back-to-back overtime wins on the first possession of the extra period. Despite that, they've been outgained by more than 100 yards in each contest. Their luck runs out today in Houston, where the Texans are 11-4 the last two seasons.

Pick: Houston 24 Chicago 13

N.Y. Giants at Minnesota (-7)

My dad has insisted all week that the Vikings will choke like they do every year. I submit to you that their choke was last week, when they lost at home to Atlanta because of four lost fumbles. A key fumble late also did the Vikings in against Tampa Bay, otherwise the Purple may be riding an eight game win streak. Expect the Vikes to hold onto the ball today and the Giants to give minimum effort.

Pick: Minnesota 35 N.Y. Giants 16

Clevleand at Pittsburgh (-11)

Cleveland hasn't scored an offensive touchdown their last five games. The Steelers love to run up the score when they can. This will be ugly.

Pick: Pittsburgh 31 Cleveland 6

Washington at San Francisco (-3)

The Redskins banded together and gave their best effort since Week 5 in upsetting the Eagles 10-3 last week. Yes, a 10-3 win was their best effort. In fact, the 'Skins are averaging just 10 ppg in their last seven. Fat and happy after a win and with nothing to play for, the will get stomped in San Fran by Mike Singeltary and the scrappy Niners.

Pick: San Francisco 27 Washington 13

Upset sepcial: Seattle (+250) at Arizona

Other than a home win over the Rams, the Cardinals have been beaten down the last four weeks. They will be motivated to head into the playoffs on a positive note. However, they'll have to do so against one of the best 4-11 teams in history (Insult/praise? I'm not sure). After being outyardaged by 100+ virtually the entire season, they have turned things around going 3-0 ATS and 2-1 SU in their last three. Seneca Wallace and Mo Morris are taking the offense in the right direction and they should continue to gash the beleaguered Cards D. Also, look for a 'Hawks defensive play to score or set up a short offensive score.

Pick: Seattle 23 Arizona 13

Lockdown: I give you these picks, Merry Christmas

After a horrid November, I am back on a roll, in the midst of a 5-0-1 run ATS the past two weeks. I did miss the Niners to win outright last week, but at least they came close, and even outyardaged Miami. Good thing I've been so hot because I'm about to stand out in the cold for six hours at Fed Ex this afternoon. By the way, I'm calling for an (under)Dog Day Afternoon.

Cincinnati (+3) at Cleveland

I remember another cold afternoon I spent in the football stands about five years ago. I witnessed Ken Dorsey throw terrible pass after terrible pass against a terrible Rutgers squad. Somehow, he's in the NFL and starting for the Browns, who haven't scored an offensive touchdown in a month.

Even the Bengals should be able to beat this banged-up Browns team, who will also be missing Winslow and Heiden. Don't actually watch this game, just lock it down.

Pick: Cincinnati 20 Cleveland 9

N.Y. Jets at Seattle (+4)

It's been a pretty horrible year for the 3-11 Seahawks. But Seneca Wallace is improving each week and they've played tough their last three at home. Meanwhile, the Jets are 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS since they exposed the Titans last month. Look for the 'Hawks to take this one in a wintry mix.

Pick: Seattle 24 N.Y. Jets 14

Upset Special: Buffalo (+230) at Denver

Trent Edwards is back and I think the Bills would like to turn it up one last time this season and get a win. Denver is wildly inconsistent, and they seem to play down to the competition. Plus, divine justice would make make Denver lose this game so San Diego has a chance to get the division back after that blown call in week two.

Pick: Buffalo 31 Denver 24

--Nate

Lockdown: December gold edition

Atlanta (-3)
San Francisco to win outright (+240)
Minnesota/Arizona over 47
Washington/Cincy under 36.5

--Nate

Can high school kids in Baltimore play football? Looks like Terps don't think so.

By Nate Sandstrom

The Baltimore Sun put out their all-Metro football teams today, and guess ho may of the first team offense and defense the paper reports are going to Maryland?

Answer: one.

Offensive Player of the Year Tavon Austin has said he is considering Maryland, but last week said West Virginia is the front-runner.

On the Terps' current roster of 125 players, just 13 players are from the Baltimore metro area (I'm including Columbia).

I'm not informed enough to know whether this is a good or bad thing; but I do find it interesting. For as much guff as Gary Williams gets for letting B-more hoops players get away, I haven't heard much about football coach Ralph Friedgen not getting B-more gridiron recruits.

Nate's Power Ratings: Dec. 10

Was it just two weeks ago that many power ratings around the Web were putting the Giants and Jets in the top two slots? Now the Jets have lost back-to-back games, and the Titans team the Jets pounded has moved ahead of the Giants in most ratings. Even though they just lost at home to the Eagles, who recently tied the Bengals, who are 1-11-1.

Perhaps it's good to remind myself how quick things can change in the NFL. As the Redskins have slid from 6-2 to 7-6, I need something to believe in. I need to give up the smack talk songs. Portis and Zorn need to hug it out. Zorn needs to consider redrawing all blocking schemes, and oh yeah, sign about four offensive linemen. The 'skins still need a new punter (not Plackemeier) to replace the just-fine Derrick Frost, who was cut in preseason. The kicker should have been cut. Washington's second-round draft pick receivers need to make more plays.

Yet, despite all this doom and gloom, they could still make the playoffs. Last year, they rallied from 5-7 to get in; in 2005, they rallied from 5-6 to make it. Now, their remaining schedule has them at Cincinnati, vs. Philadelphia and at San Francisco, all winnable games.

But I don't think they will win out. Speaking of that, I'm predicting you'll need 11 wins to get in to the NFC playoffs, but you never know.

After reviewing the schedules, here's what I'm projecting for playoff seeding:
NFC
1. N.Y. Giants (12-4)
2. Carolina (12-4)
3. Arizona (10-6)
4. Minnesota (9-7)
5. Tampa Bay (11-5)
6. Atlanta (11-5)
AFC
1. Tennessee (14-2)
2. Pittsburgh (12-4)
3. New England (11-5)
4. Denver (9-7)
5. N.Y. Jets (10-6)
6. Indianapolis (10-6)

Sorry, Ravens fans, projected losses to Pittsburgh and Dallas put you via tiebreaker, as they lose for having worse strength of victory than Jets and head-to-head loss to Colts.

Now, onto the power ratings. Not much change from last week.
Team (W-L, last week)
1. N.Y. Giants (11-2, 1). Dropped passes lead to concerns. Can you answer this question?
2. Tennessee (12-1, 2). Will face a Houston team with backs against the wall this weekend.
3. Pittsburgh (10-3, 3). Talk about finding a way to win, will they carry the mo' next week.
4. Carolina (10-3, 4). Remember when Steve Smith fight was supposed to derail this team?
5. Tampa Bay (9-4, 5). Still in great playoff position.
6. Dallas (8-5, 6). Sure, Jerry. It's Barber's fault.
7. Indianapolis (9-4, 7). Finally, a blowout win. Now they get Detroit.
8. Baltimore (9-4, 8). Getting the stretchers ready for this weekend.
9. Arizona (8-5, 12). Can't believe they didn't have the decency to let the Niners keep it close.
10. New England (8-5, 15). Beat the Seahawks on a day other teams wouldn't have.
11. Philadelphia (7-5-1, 16). Remember when their season was over?
12. Miami (8-5, 17). Unheralded defense needs to keep it up to get 'Phins in postseason.
13. Denver (8-5, 9). Finally, Raiders and Chiefs off their schedule.
14. Atlanta (8-5, 10). How will young team respond to pressure-filled stretch run?
15. Minnesota (8-5, 11). That Lions game was way too close. Again.
16. N.Y. Jets (8-5, 14). This ship is sinking fast, but should get in if they beat Buffalo, Miami.
17. Houston (6-7, 20). Great run, but started too far in the hole.
18. Green Bay (5-8, 19). Let too many games get away, in deep hole now (said this last week too).
19. Chicago (7-6, 21). Offense showed some spark last week.
20. New Orleans (7-6, 18). Tough to know where they'll go this offseason.
21. San Francisco (5-8, 22). Things are turning around fast. Is Shaun Hill MVP?
22. Washington (7-6, 13). See above.
23. Buffalo (6-7, 23). Shaun King. Patrick Ramsey. J.P. Losman. The next Tulane NFL QB?
24. San Diego (5-8, 24). Almost sure Cutler fumble in Week 2 will cost them division.
25. Seattle (2-11, 26). The best damned 2-11 team in history.
26. Jacksonville (4-9, 25). Is Garrard really better than Leftwhich was?
27. Cleveland (4-9, 27). I'm flashing back to watching Dorsey at Miami nearly losing to Rutgers.
28. Oakland (3-10, 28). Does anyone have JaMarcus Russell's cell phone number?
29. Kansas City (2-11, 29). May actually beat Bengals, move back in draft.
30. St. Louis (2-11, 30). Remember when they beat Dallas and Washington?
31. Cincinnati (1-11-1, 31). Why bother?
32. Detroit (0-13, 12). Every team wins once, right? Update this week: Not anymore.

A writer converting back to my anti-playoff side

From SI.
--Nate

Final regular season rankings

By Nate Sandstrom

For all the gnashing of teeth about Texas, I think the BCS has done its self-declared job of putting the two teams that have had the best seasons in a bowl game against each other. I hope others are impressed that Oklahoma is the first team in 79 years to score 60 points in six straight games.

The bigger snub is Boise State getting passed over, I'd have put them ahead of Utah and Ohio State. Oh well, they will get to play in one of the best bowl season match-ups when they take on TCU in the Poinsettia Bowl on Dec. 23 in San Diego (get out of work early, kickoff is at 5.)

I would also like to take the time to ask how BYU is #17 in the AP poll. Their best win is Air Force, and they were beat comfortably by Utah and waxed by TCU.

My final regular season rankings:
1. Florida (12-1, 2). Even when they're off they win by double-digits.
2. Oklahoma (12-1, 3). A loss here and they start to be categorized as chokers like the Buckeyes.
3. Texas (12-1, 4). Hope they don't spend so much time crying that they lose to Ohio State.
4. Alabama (12-1, 1). Pretty-much guaranteed preseason #1 next year, right?
5. USC (11-1, 5). Too bad for them no Pac-10 wins were valuable.
6. Penn State (11-1,6). Big Ten team with no athletes. Sure.
7. Texas Tech (11-1, 7). Only team to beat Texas gets only team to beat Florida.
8. Boise State (12-0, 8). Keep racking up undefeated seasons.
9. Ohio State (10-2, 9). Top 10 even in down year.
10. Utah (12-0, 10). Should fare better in Sugar Bowl than Hawaii last year, but how much?
11. Oklahoma St. (9-3, 11). Could be next year's Texas Tech.
12. Cincinnati (11-2, 13). Quietest 11-win season in a while.
13. Oregon (9-3, 14). Late rally has Ducks on verge of another 10-win season.
14. TCU (10-2, 15). Should get more national respect.
15. Georgia Tech (9-3, 16). Where do they go from here?
16. Georgia (9-3, 17). Hope they are recruiting a defense.
17. Mississippi (8-4, 18). Imagine if they had won the Wake and Vanderbilt games?
18. Michigan State (9-3, 19). And we've now reached the lowest tier of ranked teams.
19. Pittsburgh (9-3, 20). Shady McCoy nearly a Heisman candidate.
20. Iowa (8-4, 21). Speaking of Heisman candidate RB's, what about Shonn Green?
21. Oregon St. (8-4, 23). Great at screwing USC.
22. Northwestern (9-3, 25). And I had So. Illinois upsetting them before the year.
23. Virginia Tech (9-4, NR). Somehow, emerged as ACC Champ again.
24. Ball State (12-1, 12). Turnovers are killer.
25. Boston College (9-4, 24). Keep beating expectations.

I live!

OK, I've taken ten weeks to prepare these, so here you go, my all new updated power rankings:
1. N.Y. Giants: These are not the Patriots of the past 5 years when Belicheck could seemingly cut anyone and be fine. They should be concerned about losing Plaxico
2. Pittsburgh: Better than the Titans.
3. Tennessee: I still say Ngata is better than Haynesworth.
4. Dallas: They'll get tested today, but I have a feeling they're about to get back to early season form.
5. Indianapolis: Damn the Vikings for not putting them in a too-deep hole.
6. Baltimore: 11th in the NFL in scoring. What a difference a QB and real offensive coordinator make. By the way, defense is ranked 2nd behind only Pittsburgh.
7. Carolina: I have no idea what's going on here.
8. Atlanta: I'm polishing my knuckles right now.
9. Tampa: I hate this division.
10. Denver: Ho hum.
11. Minnesota: I credit my office mug with they're success.
12. Arizona: I'm not as down on them as Nate. They just can't come East.
13. Jets: I just can't wait for a well-timed Favre turnover.
14. Washington: I predict they'll be missing out on the Playoffs this year.
15. New England: I buy into Cassel. Not as another Tom Brady, but as a quality starting QB. Better than Schaub.
16. Philadelphia: I agree with Nate that they may close hot, but will that just cover up the problems and keep them from making changes?.
17. Green Bay: I like this team a lot. They aren't getting it done this year, but they've lost a bunch of close ones. next year they'll win the division. Losing Favre is not the problem.
18.Miami: Will they open up the QB spot for competition next year?
19. New Orleans: Based on history of players having great seasons, look for Brees to have big letdown next year.
20. Chicago: Forte is the only real highlight here.
21. Houston: Did I win the preseason Schaub/Rosenfels debate?
22. San Francisco: I hope they draft Heyward-Bey and Keep Hill and Davis and become Terps West.
23. Buffalo: I have no idea what has happened to Trent Edwards
24. San Diego: Is it just me or does Rivers have no zip on his ball?
25. Jacksonville: I heard Del Rio is on the hot seat. That would be stupid.
26. Cleveland: They'd be stupid to fire Savage. But they should let Crennel go.
27. Seattle: Coming to an end of an era.
28. Oakland: I have seen nothing from Jamarcus this year.
29. Kansas City: They won't be in first place next year, Nate.
30. St. Louis: Just a total mess. They have to start from scratch.
31. Cincinnati: Poor Marvin Lewis.
32. Detroit: Too bad they don't get to play 2006 Ravens.

Saturday night lock

It's been a busy day so this is all I'm getting to:

Arizona State at Arizona (-10.5)

The Wildcats have lost three straight in this in-state rivalry, but that streak stops tonight. Arizona has shown they can exploit bad defenses and Arizona State has shown they can be one. Still, ASU has won three straight and can get bowl eligible with a win here.

However, I expect the 'cats to take out past years' frustrations in this one.

Pick: Arizona 41 Arizona State 17

--Nate

Another This Just In....

It seems working at USC is a golden ticket to getting a head job at a traditional power, this time at Washington. Sorry Jim Mora Jr., no dream job for you, at least until Steve Sarkisian is fired in two years.

--Nate

This Just In

Westlake wins 3A Championship over Wilde Lake, 13-0. Their quick defense put constant pressure on the Wilde Lake offensive attack. Check here for full coverage in about an hour. Congrats to my buddy and Westlake alum Jim Marsden. Congrats to my college buddy and Penn State fan Chris Smith, PSU recruit Devon Smith returned a punt 88-yards for a TD, his fourth return TD this season.
--Nate

NFL Power Ratings: Dec. 4

By Nate Sandstrom

I got sick sitting at the Giants-'Skins game last Sunday. Probably as much because I sat in the rain for three hours as Washington's actual play, but neither one was good.

In case you're keeping track the following teams have been mathematically eliminated form playoff contention: Seatle, St. Louis, Detroit, Cleveland, Kansas City and Cincinnati. Oakland is eliminated with a loss at San Diego tonight.

On with the ratings:

1. N.Y. Giants (11-1). Should be an upset alert vs. Philly this week.
2. Tennessee (11-1). Does anyone remember Vince Young?
3. Pittsburgh (9-3). Sick defense. Harrison is even iller.
4. Carolina (9-3). Nothing like drafting a RB to get your RB going.
5. Tampa Bay (9-3). What a weird thing for Gruden to cry about.
6. Dallas (8-4). Working out of mid-season swoon.
7. Indianapolis (8-4). Tied record for most straight wins by six or less, but they keep winning.
8. Baltimore (8-4). Can't ever remember them scoring like this.
9. Denver (7-5). Get no respect but are 3-0 against NFL's best division.
10. Atlanta (8-4). Exceeding even Mark's preseason pick.
11. Minnesota (7-5). Good thing the Williams took their case to a Minneapolis judge.
12. Arizona (7-5). Can clinch West this week, a loss will start more meltdown talk.
13. Washington (7-5). Peaked in September; finished 4-0 two of the last three years.
14. N.Y. Jets (8-4). Sure, New York has the best two teams.
15. New England (7-5). It's OK to run once when you have first and goal at the nine, coach.
16. Philadelphia (6-5-1). I expect them to close hot.
17. Miami (7-5). Playoffs unlikely, but a big step forward this year.
18. New Orleans (6-6). Is there a less predictable team in the league? Oh yeah, Denver.
19. Green Bay (5-7). Letting too many games get away, in deep hole now.
20. Houston (5-7). Still alive; Slaton mounting late ROY bid.
21. Chicago (6-6). Blown out last two vs. division.
22. San Francisco (4-8). Can still technically win the West.
23. Buffalo (6-6). 4-0 seems like a long time ago.
24. San Diego (4-8). At least I saw Shawm Merriman this week (Coat drive at Terps game).
25. Jacksonville (4-8). I had Jags reaching divisionals in my preseason picks.
26. Seattle (2-10). The best damned 2-10 team in this league.
27. Cleveland (4-8). I was annoyed by offseason hype around Browns; now, I feel bad for them.
28. Oakland (3-9). Hey Tennessee Vols, get used to seeing 3-9 with Kiffin.
29. Kansas City (2-10). Worst to first next year?
30. St. Louis (2-10). Need more than Steven Jackson.
31. Cincinnati (1-10-1). Bring in Jordan Palmer! Yeah! Oh God, No!!!! Damn it.
32. Detroit (0-12). Every team wins once, right?

Early Lockdown: Rutgers-Louisville

By Nate Sandstrom

Louisville (over 52) at Rutgers (-10.5)

Does it seem like longer than two years ago that Louisville at Rutgers were squaring off for a bid the BCS Championship game? It does to me; not much lot has gone right for either team since that last-second 28-25 Rutgers win on Nov. 9, 2006. Louisville basically has not been able to stop anyone from scoring over the past two seasons, while Rutgers has suffered a string of embarassing losses, especially at home.

Rutgers stumbled out of the gate 1-5 this year, with the only win being at home against Morgan State. However, they're now riding a five-game winning streak, including winning the last four by an average 24.5 points (they even won at Pitt 54-34).

Meanwhile, Louisville (5-6) has lost four straight and need a win tonight to become bowl eligible. In a similar position last year, they were able to upset Rutgers and earn a .500 record.

However, I look for the Rutgers pass attack to take advantage of a young Louisville secondary on senior night. No doubt that QB Mike Teel, WR Kenny Britt and others to take out the frustrations of the last two years on the Cards. At the same time, Louisvile almost always gets their scores. Gimme Rutgers and the over.

Pick: Rutgers 43 Louisville 24

Pro Bowl ballot

By Nate Sandstrom

I submitted a Pro Bowl ballot today (you can vote online here). I'm not sure how these are selected, but I was disappointed that Leodis McKelvin was not listed under kick returners. Also, I think it's stupid you only get to vote for one strong safety and one free safety. I voted on the season players are having over overall talent level. Anyway, my ballot:

NFC
QB Drew Brees
QB Jeff Garcia
QB Aaron Rodgers
RB Adrian Peterson
RB Clinton Portis
RB Michael Turner
FB Mike Sellers
WR Calvin Johnson
WR Steve Smith
WR Anquan Boldin
WR Roddy White
TE Chris Cooley
TE Jason Witten
C Matt Birk
C Olin Kreutz
G Steve Hutchinson
G Travelle Wharton
G Keydrick Vincent
T Bryant McKinnie
T Chris Samuels
T Jon Stinchcomb
DE John Abraham
DE Justin Tuck
DE Jared Allen
DT Tommie Harris
DT Darnell Docket
DT Jonathan Babineaux
OLB LanceBriggs
OLB Chad Greenway
OLB Ernie Sims
ILB Jon Beason
ILB Patrick Willis
CB Corey Webster
CB Charles Woodson
CB Carlos Rogers
SS Chris Horton
FS Nick Collins
K Josh Brown
P Josh Bidwell
KR Allen Rossum
ST Richard Marshall

AFC
QB Peyton Manning
QB Phillip Rivers
QB Jay Cutler
RB Thomas Jones
RB Marshawn Lynch
RB Steve Slaton
FB Tony Richardson
WR Lee Evans
WR Andre Johnson
WR Vincent Jackson
WR Matt Jones
TE Antonio Gates
TE Anthony Gonzalez
C Nick Mangold
C Kevin Mawae
G Kris Dielman
G Alan Faneca
G Brian Waters
T D'Brickashaw Ferguson
T Marcus McNeil
T Joe Thomas
DE Mario Williams
DE Dwight Freeny
DE Shaun Ellis
DT Albert Haynesworth
DT Haloti Ngata
DT Shaun Rogers
OLB James Harrison
OLB Keith Bulluck
OLB Terrell Suggs
ILB D'Qwell Jackson
ILB Jerod Mayo
CB Jacques Reeves
CB Darelle Revis
CB Cortland Finnegan
SS Troy Polamalu
FS Ed Reed
K Jeff Reed
P Shane Lechler
KR Joshua Cribbs
ST Kassim Osgood

Top 25 Rankings

By Nate Sandstrom

So this week's complaint fest about the BCS is focused on whether Texas or Oklahoma should be ahead. I can see both sides, but if you ask me, I favor Oklahoma.

I know the main argument for taking Texas is that they beat Oklahoma head-to-head. But I don't see why that's a more valid argument than saying Texas Tech beat Texas so they should be ahead of the Longhorns (which I also don't believe).

In college football every game counts, and I think Oklahoma has the more impressive resume. They've beaten four of my top 15 teams — Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, Cincinnati and TCU – by 20 points or more. Texas has beaten two of those teams — Oklahoma and Oklahoma State — by 10 and 7, respectively.

That's my reasoning; if you can come up with a better argument, let me hear it.

Of course, all this may be irrelevant. If Florida and Alabama play a tight, crisp 60-minute game, couldn't computer strength keep them 1-2 and set up a rematch? Not likely, but we'll see.

In other BCS-related notes, I moved up Boise State ahead of Utah this week. The move is in part because of the way they crushed a disappointing Fresno State team, but has more to do with the fact that the win at Oregon looks even better after they trashed Oregon State in the Civil War on Saturday. I would like to see both Boise and Utah get into BCS games, but that seems pretty unlikely.

What I'd like to see, assuming Florida, Oklahoma and Boston College win on Saturday.

BCS Championship: Florida vs. Oklahoma
Orange Bowl: Cincinnati vs. Boston College
Sugar Bowl: Alabama vs. Boise State
Rose Bowl: USC vs. Penn State
Fiesta Bowl: Utah vs. Texas

Finally, here's my end of November ballot.

Team (W-L, Last Week)
1. Alabama (12-0, 1). Combined with Auburn's suckiness, '08 a great season in Tide history.
2. Florida (11-1, 2). If Gators beat Alabama, they may challenge the Detroit Lions next.
3. Oklahoma (11-1, 3). See above.
4. Texas (11-1, 4). Hoping for a repeat of the 2003 Big 12 Title Game.
5. USC (10-1, 5). Hoping to avoid a repeat of 2006.
6. Penn State (11-1, 6). Enjoyed Thanksgiving at home while all these other suckers were playing.
7. Texas Tech (11-1, 7). Despite Oklahoma game, a great season for Raiders.
8. Boise State (12-0, 11). Would be interesting to see them join the Pac-10 (The Big Ten has 11!).
9. Ohio State (10-2, 9). Good finish, considering they were trailing Wisconsin in 4Q on Oct. 4.
10. Utah (12-0, 10). Utes are probably booking their Fiesta Bowl flight.
11. Oklahoma St. (9-3, 8). Wishing they were in Big 12 North.
12. Ball State (12-0, 13). Great season, but hurt by no marquis wins.
13. Cincinnati (10-2, 16). May have done so well that they lose Coach Kelly.
14. Oregon (9-3, 22). Second straight year of QB injuries may have cost them BCS again.
15. TCU (10-2, 14). Utah game will haunt them, but should take pride in great year.
16. Georgia Tech (9-3, 23). I'm leaning toward Paul Johnson as Coach of the Year.
17. Georgia (9-3, 15). Not their fault they were ranked #1.
18. Mississippi (8-4, 18). Think Houston Nutt is smiling down the standings at Arkansas?
19. Michigan St. (9-3, 19). Javon Ringer can use the time off before the bowl.
20. Pittsburgh (8-3, 20). Another big Backyard Brawl win.
21. Iowa (8-4, 21). This season could have been so much more for Hawks.
22. Missouri (9-3, 12). Most resented team in country right now.
23. Oregon St. (8-4, 16). Didn't expect Rogers to make THAT much difference.
24. Boston College (9-3, 24). Keep beating ACC teams that allegedly out-recruit them.
25. Northwestern (9-3, NR). Finally, I've put Northwestern in the poll. Now they need to win their bowl game to make it a great season.

***Bonus picks for FCS playoff games (I went 6-2 in Round 1, missing on Cal Poly and Colgate)
James Madison over Villanova
Montana over Weber State
New Hampshire upsets Northern Iowa
Appalachian State over Richmond

A good perspective on the BCS

This from Everyday Should be Saturday, my favorite college football blog. I too don't like to worry about the BCS (even though I've just put in my two cents on why Oklahoma should be ahead of Texas above). Does anyone remember the Bowl Alliance? Or before that when there was nothing? College football was awesome then and is still awesome now.

For those of you who really want a playoff, stop going to games and stop paying attention. Crying about the BCS isn't going to make a difference, but if you walk with your money that will. But I doubt you have it in you because college football is so far superior to any other sport.

--Nate

Penn State is Big Ten Champions of football, mascots arrested

I don't know if he was still depressed about that loss to Iowa, but Penn State's mascot was arrested and charged with DUI over the weekend. See link here to the plain jerseys blog.

--Nate

Where I've been

By Nate Sandstrom

I guess I've been notably absent lately in part because I've been writing for publication/$ again, in part because work has been really busy and partly because our car is dead and taking the bus eats up a bit more of my day.

However, this week I expect to be back for full coverage, starting tonight.

Mark's Jesup Lockdown

I'm on a 6-0 streak right now!
With the season coming to a close and coaches looking to make statements, I like scores to get run up, so I like the favorites today. More NFL picks to follow tomorrow.
Florida (-16.5) at Florida State
USC (-31.5) vs. Notre Dame
Upset Special: Virginia (+260) @ Va Tech

Congrats, Ball State

Congratulations to Ball State, who is 4 minutes from heading to the MAC Championship at 12-0. I'm not sure whether this guy is serious about them being a Rose Bowl team — because they aren't better than Penn State — but you have to feel bad for them for not getting a shot at a bowl bigger than the Motor City Bowl.

I think they'd fare much better than Hawaii did against Georgia last year in the Sugar Bowl, although they are not the caliber of 2006 Boise State.

They should beat Buffalo and either Wisconsin or Minnesota, whichever they play in a Bowl Game, and finish 14-0.

I wonder if they would fit into President-elect Obama's proposed eight-team playoff system? Their best wins are Navy and Central Michigan, but so they can't be considered top 8. But they could be considered a top 16 team if they were a 16-team tourney.

Say they get a 14-seed and have the chance to lose in the first round to someone like Texas; would that be a more rewarding season than finishing 14-0? Open for comments.

--Nate

What just happened?

The Raiders fired Lane Kiffin for Tom Cable so Jim Fassell could write love letters to Al Davis? The Vols fired Phil Fulmer to hire Lane Kiffin? What just happened?

--Nate

Lockdown, late edition

Never take a game to get one back; except now when I'm tkaing the Niners while I can still get +9.5 at Dallas. Injured Terrence Newman? All right!

--Nate

Lockdown: Week 13 quick hit

By Nate Sandstrom

It's a quick version tonight that will feature more explanation depending on how early I can get up tomorrow.

Illinois (-3) at Northwestern

It's been an up and down year for the Illini, who beat Iowa and took Missouri to the end, yet lost to Western Michigan and just got past UL-Lafayette. But Illinois-Northwestern means more than the battle for Sweet Sioux this year — Illinois needs a win for bowl eligibility. The more desperate team gets this one.

Pick: Illinois 31 Northwestern 21

Upset Special: Tampa Bay at Detroit (+290)

There's been only one winless team in NFL history, the 0-14 Buccaneers. So wouldn't it be fitting if they were to provide the Lions with their first win of the season?

Not that that fact is anything to make a bet on, but I actually like the improvement the Lions offense has shown over the past month. The Bucs meanwhile struggled to get a road win at Kansas City two weeks ago and I'm banking on them looking past another inferior opponent.

Pick: Detroit 28 Tampa Bay 24

Seven questions/thoughts/predictions

By Mark Goldman
Did Jim Fassel’s letter to Al Davis include a “Do you like me too? Check Yes or No” section?

You can email General Mangers? Why didn’t someone tell me this before?! I can’t wait to forward Ozzie the next time someone sends me an “Air Force One has been renamed The Soul Plane” email. (by the way, doesn't Savage look like a "special" guy who won some sort of "fan for a day" prize in that picture?)

Marvin Lewis is a bad coach. I thought for sure he’d be good and it appeared for a while that he’d turned the Bungles around, but I think he was just benefiting from some elite talent coming together at the right time. Kicking the field goal when you’re down 13 with six minutes to go and you’re inside the 10? Bad call. He doesn’t get any help from the fact that the front office there is out of their minds. That said, I don’t expect him to be fired this offseason.

We will never see an official 85 jersey that reads “OchoCinco.” Not because the NFL won’t allow it, but because the Bengals will trade Chad this offseason. Possibly to the Ravens for McCalister. And no way is Mason giving up his 85. It’s very possible that we see the name “OchoCinco” stitched above, say, 87. Now that would be awesome! Also, are the Bengals willing to admit they are complete morons for not taking Dan Snyder’s offer of two first round picks for Chad?

The Andy Reid/Donovan McNabb era is coming to a close. I’ve always felt that Philly didn’t appreciate what they had in McNabb. That he might not have been Tom Brady, but a quality, reliable QB is a blessing in the NFL. And four straight NFC championship games? What more can you ask for? I think Westbrook is going to rapidly decline soon as all RBs eventually do. I think McNabb will be out of town after this season. I think Andy Reid’s offense is going to struggle unless Kolb is extremely accurate and can deal with the pressure of no assistance from a running game?

I think there’s no way Polamalu isn’t the Defensive Player of the Year.

I think this is the funniest commercial I’ve seen in a while.

Early lockdown

I've taken a beating the past two weeks in the NFL (1-3), but I just have to document that I have the Steelers rolling over a half-strength Bengals team.

Pick: Pittsburgh 35 Cincinnati 10

--Nate

Screw you, Cavalier

Not much new on the blog tonight because my Internet service has su-uh-ucked for most of the night. I have this weird problem where it will work fine for a while then other times it will take like 10 minutes to load a page. I called tonight about the problem but by the time I was on hold for 20 minutes it started working again. Bastards.

--Nate

Top 25 FBS Rankings: Nov. 17

By Nate Sandstrom

So, this past weekend may go down as one of the most uneventful ones in the history of November college football. There's virtually no change in the Top 25 in any of the major polls, especially at the top.

Probably the most eventful part of the weekend was ACC action. Boston College upset Florida State in their hideous all-black uniforms, keeping the Eagles' and Terps' (who converted a fourth-down late in the game to knock off UNC) hopes of winning the ACC Atlantic alive. Four teams can still win the division, and they all play each other this Saturday. Florida State (4-3 ACC) is at Maryland (4-2 ACC) and Wake Forest (4-3 ACC) takes on Boston College (3-3 ACC). Maryland can clinch with a win and Boston College loss; Wake can clinch with a win and a Maryland loss; if Maryland and Boston College both win they will play next week for the title.

In the Coastal, Miami took the division lead at 4-2, though everyone else but Duke is either 4-3 or 3-3 so there's much to be decided here.

I'll have more on the conference races on Wednesday.

Meanwhile, my Top 25 ballot this week.

Team (W-L, last week)
1. Texas Tech (10-0, 1). My top team, even though Coach Leach is still playing the underdog.
2. Alabama (11-0, 2). Has there been a quieter run to #1 in the BCS by any other team ever?
3. Florida (9-1, 3). If not for illegal blocked XP against Miss, they are #1.
4. Texas (10-1, 4). At least the computers like them better than Florida.
5. Oklahoma (9-1, 5). Will wins over TT and OSU vault them up BCS rankings? Probably.
6. USC (9-1, 6). Can you go to the title game without winning your conference? Ask Georgia.
7. Penn State (10-1, 7). A big win over Spartans would go a long way to finishing in Top 5.
8. Oklahoma St. (9-2, 8). Think these guys can't wait to face Oklahoma in two weeks?
9. Ohio State (9-2, 9). OSU tries to break largest margin win over UM this week (38-0, 1934).
10. Utah (11-0, 10). Just needs win vs. BYU and BCS bid is theirs.
11. Boise State (10-0, 12). Bet Boise would love a shot at the Utes.
12. Missouri (9-2, 13). Lucky they play in Big 12 North, unlucky to play South winner in Dec.
13. Ball State (10-0, 15). I think Cards could play with some of these teams above them.
14. TCU (9-2, 16). Oh, to have the last 5:00 of that Utah game back.
15. Georgia (9-2, 11). Fortunate to be 9-2.
16. LSU (7-3, 14). Even down 31-3, you had to know they'd come back.
17. Michigan St. (9-2, 19). Penn State game will define their season.
18. Oregon St. (7-3, 22). Really wish the first two were exhibition games.
19. Cincinnati (8-2, 21). Quietly having one of the best storybook seasons.
20. Pitt (7-2, 24). Can Pitt avoid any more stinkers this year?
21. BYU (10-1, 23). Nice win over Air Force on Saturday.
22. Iowa (7-4, 25). Still looking for New Year's bowl bid.
23. Miami (7-3, NR). Welcome back 'Canes; now can you stay in the rankings?
24. Vanderbilt (6-4, NR). Good chance to rebound from mid-season swoon.
25. Oregon (8-3, NR). Can still finish with 10 wins despite injury-plagued year.

Lokdown: Stab in the dark version

By Nate Sandstrom

We all know that I tend to prefer picking college games, but a jam-packed few days leading up to Saturday didn't give me time to run the numbers. That leads me to today, where I'm going totally against the numbers and purely on my gut. A sure recipe for 0-3? We'll see.

Minnesota (+5) at Tampa Bay

Minnesota is 1-3 on the road, while Tampa is 4-0 at home. Tampa is 9-4 ATS in their last 13 home games, Minnesota is 3-9 ATS in their last 12 overall, including 0-3 ATS on grass.

But I feel like last week was a season momentum-changing win for the Vikes, who will be able to contain Tampa's rush attack.

Pick: Minnesota 20 Tampa Bay 16

San Diego (+5) at Pittsburgh

The Chargers defense has been nothing but horrible this year, and the Chargers haven't won in Pittsburgh since the '94 AFC Championship Game. They also should have lost at home to Kansas City.

But as long as Awfulsburger is QB for the Steelers throwing ducks with a bum shoulder, I'll take San Diego's turnover-creating defense.

Pick: San Diego 30 Pittsburgh 24

Tennessee at Jacksonville (+3)

Tennessee is 8-1 ATS this year, while Jacksonville is 3-6 ATS. They are 0-4 ATS at home this year, and 1-8 ATS their last nine on grass. If you remember back to Week 1, I took the Titans +3 as home dogs against the Jags for a lockdown win.

This week, I'm taking the Jags as the three-point home dog, and not just because I like three-point home dogs. The Jags finally outrushed an opponent by more than 50 yards for the first time since September, so I'm looking for them to continue that trend.

Pick: Jacksonville 17 Tennessee 16

Week 11

By Mark Goldman

Lock the following up:

Sand Diego (+5.5) at Pittsburgh - This line has moved 2 points since opening! Free points courtesy of the morons (SoBo Football included!) across the country that think they know what they're doing. I know San Diego hasn't looked great all year, but now's the time for them to turn it on. And R-berger hasn't looked so hot lately. The Chargers promoted Ron Riviera to D-Coordinator and the word is he's going to bring the pressure back to their lackluster D. Take the points.

Tennessee (-3) at Jacksonville - Everyone seems to think this is the place the Titans stumble. Not me. Jacksonville is on the verge of a free fall and the Titans' defense is going to eat up the Jags' offense. Take the team that is 8-1 ATS and give up only 3 points.

Arizona (-3) at Seattle - Seattle's giving up 25 ppg and Arizona is scoring 29. Meanwhile, Seattle is only scoring 18. Arizona has won all its games by margins of 5, 21, 6, 24, 21, 10. Giving up three doesn't make me nervous.


CALM DOWN, BALTIMORE!
Yes, Flacco looks for real. Yes, the offense has been more fun to watch than the past ten years combined. Yes, Ray Lewis looks like a man playing for a $40 Million contract! But let's not forget who we've beaten and to whom we have lost. We've played three contenders and lost to all of them. All our wins have come against second and third tier teams. I know, you have to win those games in order to be a legit team. But you also have to find a way to beat half of the big games you play. Coming up, the Ravens have the NFC East and Pittsburgh. To make the playoffs, the Ravens have to win at least 4 of the next 7 games. I expect them to do it. But before you go printing your playoff tickets, just remember that the team has had 3 big tests and failed them all.

That said, the Ravens are getting 7 points today! I didn't want to gynx it and make that a lock, but dear lord! 7 points! Baltimore has lost three games. Two of them were only by 3 each! And that was against the Titans and the Steelers. 7 points!

Post-Week 10 Power Ratings

My explanationless power rankings are on the sidebar and below.

1. Tennessee
2. N.Y. Giants
3. Pittsburgh
4. Carolina
5. New England
6. Baltimore
7. Washington
8. N.Y. Jets
9. Tampa Bay
10. Atlanta
11. Arizona
12. Philadelphia
13. Miami
14. Buffalo
15. Chicago
16. Green Bay
17. Dallas
18. New Orleans
19. Indianapolis
20. Jacksonville
21. Denver
22. San Diego
23. Minnesota
24. Cleveland
25. Seattle
26. Houston
27. San Francisco
28. St. Louis
29. Oakland
30. Kansas City
31. Cincinnati
32. Detroit

Elsewhere, here are ESPN's, Fox Sport's, Sportsline's.

Off to Wells for me. Buy one bottle of wine get one 1/2 off if you're interested.

--Nate

Playoffs!

By Nate Sandstrom

Over the next two days, 64 high school football teams across the state of Maryland will take the field in a quest for a trip to M&T Bank Stadium on the first Saturday in December and the chance to take home one of four different state titles (Class 1A, 2A, 3A and 4A).

Inside those quests are plenty of intrigue as well. D.C. and Baltimore-area schools battle for bragging rights over which region is best, while county foes square-off in rematches of tight regular season contests.

River Hill, Dunbar, Quince Orchard and Damascus are all in and looking to defend their respective championships of last season. Eastern Tech and Arundel are also back in the tournament looking for the titles they came oh so close to capturing last season.

Despite the dreary rain and cold today tomorrow should be good football weather, with partly cloudy skies and temperatures in the mid-60s if you're looking for some football to catch live. A run down on some games of note:

# = Max Preps state ranking, team, (County, team record and seed)

Class 4A
Friday 7 p.m.
• Wootton (Montgomery, 7-3, 3S) at #8 Quince Orchard (Montgomery, 9-1, 2S). Quince Orchard opens their title defense by facing-off against their season-opening opponent, Wootton. That one was a close contest, with the Cougars winning on the road 26-21. Quince Orchard also features a top-15 CB in Maryland recruit Travis Hawkins. They also have top-flight recruit DE Jason Ankrah. Wootton is riding a five-game win streak, but will need some big plays to pull an upset here.

Class 3A
Friday, 7 p.m.
• Damascus (Frederick, 7-3, 4W) at #16 Seneca Valley (Montgomery, 10-0, 1W). The only undefeated team in Class 3A will host the defending state champion in this strong first-round battle. Seneca Valley prevailed in a match-up of these team on Oct. 24 13-7 as Damascus' homecoming opponent. Seneca Valley scored on the first two possession of the game but had to hold off a late Damascus rally. The Screaming Eagles D has posted six shoutouts this season.

Class 2A
Friday, 7 p.m.
• #20 Gwynn Park (Pricne George's, 8-2, 4S) at #2 River Hill (Howard, 10-0, 1S). Hard to know who is going to complain about this draw more. In the talented 2A South region, Gwynn Park barely made the tourney at all despite topping #11 Dunbar in Baltimore in the season opener, shut-out state qualifier Friendly and took #18 Urbana to overtime before losing. All this and they get a team that has won 24 straight games since falling in the 2006 3A state title game to Friendly. Players to note include DT Raynard Randolph.

Not that River Hill is eager to see Gwynn Park in the first round. The Hawks have outscored opponents 464-28 this season and are widely-recognized as the best public school team in the state. However, some may question their strength of schedule. They've played just one team that qualfied for the state tourney, defeating #12 Wilde Lake 12-0. Still, the Hawks have a pair of backs already given scholarships to 1-A schools in Michael Campanaro and Malek Redd and combind with their stifling defense led by S/WR Leron Eaddy will still be favorites.

Class 1A
Saturday, 6 p.m.
Reginald Lewis (Baltimore City, 7-3, 2S) vs. W.E.B. DuBois (Baltimore City, 7-3, 3S) at Poly High (Baltimore). The Sun calls this game possibly the most even first-round game in the state; Lewis won the first meeting 6-3. Both defenses allow fewer than 10 ppg.

Also, the Sun faceoff today debates whether private school teams, which recruit, should be allowed to compete in state tournaments. I think the best answer is to have the private school champ take on the winner of a four-team playoff among the public school champs in kind of high school Super Bowl, though I'm sure some would say that would be way too long of a season for the kids. It would certainly hurt basketball at the schools that advance, but I would still like to see it.

2008 FCS playoff run: Part I

By Nate Sandstrom

I'm a bowl system supporter in college football, but as a former resident of Cedar Falls, Iowa, and student at Northern Iowa, I know a bit about the 1-AA (now Football Championship Subdivison under a marketing ploy) playoffs.

You should too. Good players come out of I-AA including guys mentioned in my NFL awards post below like Kurt Warner and Nick Collins.

First, a refresher on the rules: There are eight automatic bids for the tournament that go the champions of the Big Sky, Colonial, MEAC, Missouri Valley, Ohio Valley, Patriot, Southern and Southland.

There are eight other at-large spots that come from those conferences as well as the Great West (where Cal Poly is almost a lock and will have a shot to nab a top seed when they head to Madison in two weeks), the Big South (where Liberty has a long shot at an at-large bid), and the Independents (no one has a chance). The Ivy doesn't really participate, the SWAC has their own title game and the Pioneer and Northeast conferences (think I-A's Sun Belt) have their own kind-of bowl game.

So far, Weber State out of the Big Sky is the only team to lock up a bid. South Carolina State can do so when they visit Morgan State here in Baltimore on Saturday. If Northern Iowa beats Indiana State (should be a blow out) and South Dakota State pulls a minor upset at Southern Illinois, then UNI would clinch the Gateway auto bid.

Here's a good projection breakdown by the Lynchburg News Adavance's Chris Lang.

Other games of note this weekend (FCS rankings, my rankings on sidebar):
• #11 Elon (8-2) at #2 Appalachian St. (8-2). Winner gets auto bid from best conference in FCS football, but a loss could bump Elon out.
• #12 William & Mary (7-2) at #1 James Madison (8-1). William & Mary would virtually lock-up a bid with an upset here.
• South Dakota State (6-4) at #10 Southern Illinois (7-2). Jackrabbits could actually vault past Salukis in playoff contention with a win here.
• #22 Massachusetts (6-4) at #13 New Hampshire (7-2). New Hampshire may need this to keep its tourney streak alive.
• #9 Wofford (7-2) at Samford (5-4). This will not be an easy trip for Wofford, who pursues at-large bid.
• #18 Tennessee State (8-2) at Jacksonville State (7-3). Elimination game in four-way race for OVC title.
• UC-Davis (5-5) at #3 Cal Poly (7-1). Aggies tough schedule makes their record look worst than it is, but Poly should win this game in order to virtually lock-up an at-large bid.

NFL Awards Watch: Nov. 11

By Nate Sandstrom

First, I heard ESPN's Tom Jackson make a crazy comment about Kurt Warner being NFL MVP after last night's poor excuse for a Monday Night Football game. Then, the Cardinals fans standing behind the ESPN set outside the game started chanting MVP.

Huh?

It's a nice comeback story that Kurt Warner is leading the league in pass efficiency, but I don't buy him as an MVP candidate any more than I do Jason Campbell, Philip Rivers or Drew Brees, who all also have nice passing numbers. I consider Offensive Player of the Year the more appropriate award category for Warner, the one-time employee of the grocery store of my teen years, Hy-Vee.

I prefer to nominate a trio of running backs as my leaders in the MVP race in Michael Turner, Clinton Portis and Adrian Peterson, in that order.

Prior to Pittsburgh's demolition of the Washington Redskins, I probably would've designated Portis as the leader, butI've pushed Michael Turner into the lead role in the past two weeks as Atlanta keeps winning. I believe the big performance he put on in Week 1 helped set the tone for the season, and the production from the league's #3 rusher has taken pressure of rookie QB Matt Ryan and allowed him to emerge and contiue gaining confidence.

Speaking of Matt Ryan, he is part of a tight race for Rookie of the Year that includes fellow 1st-round draft pick QB Joe Flacco, Tennessee RB Chris Johnson, Chicago RB Matt Forte, late draft pick and Redskins S Chris Horton and Houston RB Steve Slaton. I'll give Johnson the slightest early lead, but I'm going to defer a full designated leader another week on this one.

In the first week of this feature I designate Green Bay S Nick Collins leader of the race for Defensive Player of the Year after he returned his third INT for a touchdown this season. It initially looked to me like it was the game-winner, but A-Pete was able to get the actual game winner a few minutes later.

Still, Collins, a third full-year starter, is tied for the league lead with five total picks. He's added 41 tackles and 14 pass break-ups to go with it.

Also in the discussion for D-POY is secondary mate Charles Woodson, who also has 5 INT's; Tennessee CB Cortland Finnegan, who has been a leader in the stout Titans secondary; Giants DE Justin Tuck, who has flourished on a revamped New York DL; Minnesota CB Antoine Winfield, who has made big plays while constantly being put out on an island; as well as do-everything Niners LB Patrick Willis.

Heisman Watch: Nov. 11

By Nate Sandstrom

In short:
1. Michael Crabtree, So., WR, Texas Tech.
2. Graham Harrell, Sr., QB, Texas Tech.
3. Colt McCoy, Jr., QB, Texas.
4. Sam Bradford, So., QB, Oklahoma.
5. Scott McKillop, Sr., LB, Pitt.

Down in Lubbock, Texas Tech QB Graham Harrell and WR Michael Crabtree are battling each other in the race for the Heisman. The situation reminds me of New England's Randy Moss/Tom Brady MVP race last year.

I was in the minority in picking Randy Moss, and in this situation I show an apparent previously-unkown-to-me bias against QB's in taking Crabtree over Harrell. Partly I pick the sophomore wideout because I think that amazing TD that beat Texas was more Crabtree's catch than Harell's catch. I also like how he is second in the nation in scoring while playing in much bigger games than the leader, Michigna St. RB Javon Ringer (who has shriveled in the biggest spots).

Meanwhile, Oklahoma QB Sam Bradford and Texas QB Colt McCoy keep the Big 12 South well-represented on my mock ballot. I'm tempted to put Jeremy Maclin, #2 in the nation in all-purpose yards in the 5-slot, but I should probably leave the Big 12 for one slot and will select Pitt LB Scott McKillop, who is #2 in the nation in solo tackles, including 1.4 tackles for loss per game.

Elsewhere, Crabtree is not getting as much love at Heisman Pundit's straw poll or from ESPN's experts. However, ESPN's Rodney Gimore agrees with me in putting Crabtree #1.

Also, don't look now but junior Florida QB Tim Tebow is starting to make a strong run at defending his Heisman-ship from last year.

Hall in, Torrance out; Portis 50-50?

By Nate Sandstrom

In case you haven't heard Clinton Portis is "50-50" to play this Sunday against Dallas, and RB Ladell Betts' status is also uncertain, Coach Zorn says.

Meanwhile, DeAngelo Hall has shown up at Redskins Park and the means key special teams member Leigh Torrence was cut. It is unclear to me why the team didn't place rookie WR Malcolm Kelly on IR as I can't imagine that he would be effective at this point in the season, even if he does play this year.

Why am I not enthused about the 'Skins signing DeAngelo Hall. Stats like this from today's Post:

Hall has 20 interceptions in 65 career games, including three interceptions in eight games this season, and has returned two for touchdowns in his career. He takes risks in coverage, and according to STATS Inc., was susceptible to major breakdowns with the Raiders. Offenses have thrown at Hall 66 times this season, completing 40 passes for 552 yards.

Goo.

FBS Top 25 and the week ahead

By Nate Sandstrom

It looks like the story of the weekend for much of the national media was "Thank God Penn State lost so they are not in the national title game because they are from the Big Ten and therefore suck." They say that they played no one but cream puffs (I guess beating a team that beat USC, Oregon St., by 31 is nothing). On Fox Sports this morning, Craig Shemon was complaining because they "only" fell to seventh (without saying who they would fall behind).

Yeah, Penn State hasn't blown people away in recent weeks, but they are still a good team that can compete with everybody. I'm betting they show that in their bowl game, especially if they draw Oregon State, which controls their own destiny (more on this below).

Meanwhile, I keep Texas Tech in the top spot, mostly because Alabama's early season wins over teams like Clemson and Georgia look less impressive each week. Not that it matters because we essentially have a Final Four over the next month with Oklahoma getting a shot at the Red Raiders and Alabama and Florida now officially slated to meet in the SEC Title Game. With that out of the way, my new Top 25 Poll:

(W-L, previous rank)
1. Texas Tech (10-0, 1). Who was that team wearing TT helmets that held an opponent to 20?
2. Alabama (10-0, 2). Still undefeated, but they've been interesting lately.
3. Florida (8-1, 4). Clear #1 if Tebow converts that 4th&1 vs. Ole Miss.
4. Texas (9-1, 5). Scoreboard watching now.
5. Oklahoma (9-1, 7). Sooners still have great shot at Top 2 spot.
6. USC (8-1, 8). Trojans look for revenge at Stanford this week.
7. Penn State (9-1, 3). Still a top-flight team, whether or not anyone else believes.
8. Oklahoma St. (8-2, 6). Last week was a bad loss for a good young team.
9. Ohio State (8-2, 9). As good as they are now, the season ended at USC.
10. Utah (10-0, 11). Magical kind of season.
11. Georgia (8-2, 10). Why was this team preseason #1?
12. Boise State (9-0, 13). Will benefit in BCS picks because of two years ago, but shouldn't.
13. Missouri (8-2, 14). Should they even bother to show up to Big 12 Title game?
14. LSU (6-3, 15). Jealous much? "We want you back Saban!"
15. Ball State (9-0, 16). Watch them destroy Miami on Tuesday.
16. TCU (9-2, 12). Led against Utah for like 59 minutes on Thursday.
17. South Carolina (7-3, 17). Spurrier heads back to the Swamp. Hope he has a K this time.
18. North Carolina (7-2, 20). Will talk about Coach Davis moving elsewhere derail great season?
19. Michigan State (9-2, 19). Can they ever blow out a team?
20. Florida State (7-2, 25). Most overlooked 7-2 FSU team in years.
21. Cincinnati (7-2, NR). Who's Ben Mauck?
22. Oregon State (6-3, NR). Two of three losses to Top 10 teams.
23. BYU (9-1, NR). Still have a shot to ruin Utes season.
24. Pitt (7-2, NR). Off for a week before heading to Cincy, hosting WV in BCS bid.
25. Iowa (6-4, NR). Four losses by a combined 12 points.


A closer look within the conferences:
SEC -- Florida and Alabama wrapped up their respective divisons this week, but I don't expect either team to suffer from look-aheads. The Gators certainly have the tougher road with a visit from the Ol' Ball Coach this weekend and will have to travel to Tallahassee on the weekend after Thanksgiving.

Alabama gets Miss. State and Auburn at home, although the Tigers will be eager to keep their salvage their season by keeping their win streak going against the Tide.

Georgia beat LSU, and LSU beat South Carolina so they appear to have the 3 and 4 spots for bowl bids in the conference lined up without an upset. I think South Carolina still has a shot at playing on New Year's as long as they beat Clemson.

Meanwhile, an AP article reports witnesses linking SEC smack talk to murder.

Big Ten -- It's a three-team race for the Big Ten BCS bid, although Michigan State seems to have the longest shot as they need not only to top Penn State in East Lansing in two weeks but also have Ohio State lose either at Illinois or vs. Michigan.

The Buckeyes will be looking for revenge in Champaign this weekend, but who knows which version of the offense will show up? Ditto for the Illini, who seem to live and die by how many times Juice Williams gives the ball away.

Penn State just needs to win to take the title, and expect them to do so. Iowa probably now has the inside track for the conference's fourth bowl spot, but they've been so up-and-down recently that they may lose at Minnesota if Eric Decker is healthy for the Gophers.

Big 12 -- The most exciting division in college football sure has plenty of great match-ups left ahead of them. Oklahoma State was officially eliminated this weekend, but they still will have a chance to upset Oklahoma on Nov. 29. That's a week after Oklahoma hosts Texas Tech in a bid to take the division. Meanwhile, the Horns just need to beat Kansas and A&M and hope the other three beat each other.

Meanwhile, Missouri clinches the North with a win this weekend over Iowa State, who has lost eight straight, including their 0-6 conference record.

ACC -- Hard to say this division is any clearer after the past weekend, although I am definitely eyeballing the possibility of being in College Park for Florida State's trip to Maryland in two weekends. No one in the Atlantic is better than 4-2, while no one in the Coastal is better than 3-2, although I think Florida State and North Carolina has emerged as the best team in each respective divison. But we know from this season who is the ACC favorite changes quickly. One thing's for sure, it's not Clemson. How's that coaching change working out? (Hint: they were eliminated from division contention after losing in the Bowden Bowl, er, Florida St. game).

Pac-10 -- USC may be recognized as the best team in the conference, yet is Oregon State who controls its own Rose Bowl destiny. By virtue of the Beavers' win over USC, OSU (5-1 in conference) can get the Rose Bowl bid if they beat Cal at home, win at Arizona and finish the year with a home win in their Civil War with the Ducks. It will be a tough road, but I'll be rooting for them. Remember last year's argument about how Georgia was the best team in the country, even though they didn't win their conference? Wouldn't that be fun to see again.

Meanwhile, if the Trojans have only Stanford, Notre Dame and UCLA left. I know they lost to Stanford last year and UCLA in '06, but I wouldn't be too concerned if I was (though I never could be) a Trojans fan.

Big East -- What an upset by Cincinnati, last weekend, though watching the line all week it looked like some people were certainly betting on it. The win is also significant because it sets up a round-robin like tournament in the last few weeks in the race for the Big East Championship. West Virginia, Pitt and Cincinnati are all 3-1. Pitt is off this week before going to Cincy on the 22nd and hosting W. Virginia on the 29th.

Remember when Rutgers started the season 1-5? Well, they're now 3-2 with a win over Pitt, so they will be hoping the three front-runners fall victim to upsets and they can sneak a share of the title.

Mountain West -- Speaking of great finishes, check out the last two weeks in the Rockies:

First, the standings:
1. Utah 6-0
2. TCU 6-1
3. BYU 5-1
4. Air Force 5-1

Now, the schedule:

This weekend:
BYU at Air Force
Utah at San Diego St.

Next weekend:
Air Force at TCU
BYU at Utah

Check your listings to see if you get Mountain West's network. I've watched two late-night Saturday games on it already.

WAC -- Boise State can officialluy clinch the conference title with a win at Idaho combined with a Nevada loss vs. San Jose State. However, if Nevada holds on, they will host Boise with a chance to keep their bid a live the following week.

Since we mentioned Rutgers' turnaround above, we should probably mention that the team that beat them opening day. Fresno State, once ranked, gave up 472 rushing yards to Nevada last week and fell to 2-3 in conference and 5-4 overall.

Conference USA -- Tulsa had the week off after a disappointing loss at Arkansas ended their perfect season. They have no more time to sulk, as they head to Houston and Marshall, both still alive for CUSA bids in two of their final three.

Marshall has a tougher road to climb after a heart-breaking OT loss at division-leading East Carolina on Saturday. Most of the teams still have three conference games left so there's a lot yet to be decided.

The biggest game this weekend is Tulsa at Houston. A Cougars win would create a three-way tie at the top of CUSA West with Rice joining these two teams at 5-1. Tulsa already beat Rice, who is off this week, so a win here would almost wrap-up division.

MAC -- Ball State continues its attempt to become the first MAC BCS team Tuesday night at Miami. But their real battle is the next two, as they must head to Central Michigan, who also is 5-0 in the MAC West next week. Then they host Western Michigan, which is still technically alive for a MAC West bid at 5-1, but needs help.

In the MAC East things are wide open with Buffalo, Akron and Bowling Green at 3-2 and Temple at 2-3; however, whoever wins this thing isn't likely to beat the West champ.

Sun Belt -- The winner of the conference will probably be decided in two weeks when 4-1 Troy hosts surprising 4-0 Louisiana-Lafayette in two weeks.

Week 10 NFL Lockdown and Miscellaneous Statements

Lock of the week - Green Bay +2.5 at Minnesota. Something is fishy about this line, and that scares me. But with Jared Allen out and the road team being 10-3 against the spread in the last 13, I'll take the team I already thought was better.

Baltimore +1 at Houston. I don't want to gynx this, but Baltimore has quietly become 6-2 against the spread and a decent road team. While Joe Flacco appears to be coming into his own, look for the Ravens to run the ball well today. They've been averaging 150 yards/game and Houston is giving up 126. Meanwhile, Baltimore is only giving up 64. That's a recipe for success. If Rosenfels gives up the ball, this game is over.

Atlanta -1 vs New Orleans. New Orleans' defense blows. I like Atlanta, have all year. Michael Turner and Matt Ryan will have another big day.

Quick Notes:
Joe Flacco is a golden god
The Giants are the #1 team, not the Titans. (I'll be starting my own BCS-type rating system soon for the NFL)
ACC college football stinks.
I'm setting the over/under on Deangelo Hall personal fouls for the rest of the season with the skins at 4.
Ben Roethlesberger will be forced to miss significant playing time this year if they let him start this week. Not that the Colts will do it, but the Steelers should let him rest his arm. If they keep throwing him out there, he's going to dislodge it or worse. Fingers crossed!
Note to Hank Baskett, when the 82 year old ex boyfriend of your fiance is going to be giving her away at the wedding (which will be held at his house!), you might want to reconsider.

Lockdown V. 11.perfect

By Nate Sandstrom

After dropping to the negative side on the $100/game strategy at the end of October, I pulled a perfect 3-0 ATS to the start November. And had it not been for a missed field goal at the end of regulation by Duke, I would have hit the upset special at nearly 3-1 as well.

Here's the updated standings:
Nate: 18-14 (+$260)
Mark: 9-10 (-$200)

Upset special:
Nate: 3-7 (+$340)
Mark: 1-4 (-$190)

Toss-Up
Nate and Mark tied at 1-1

But that's enough bragging, neither Mark or I are feeling great about this weekend. But here's the few winners I got:

Arizona at Washington (under 51)

With these two sputtering offenses and rain in the forecast, I'm going under all the way, even though the total is moving up.

Maybe there's something I don't know, but here's what I do: ASU has been outyardaged in their last five, three times by more than 150. The Huskies meanwhile have been outyardaged in all eight of their miserable games this season, including by the last two when that margin increased to over 300.

Check out Western U.S. Fox Spors Networks for this classic.

Pick: Arizona State 21 Washington 10

New Mexico (-5.5) at UNLV

At a quick glance, UNLV is just a hair from a good season. They got off to a 3-1 start and despite a five-game losing streak lost by just 1 vs. Air Force and 7 at BYU. However, look closer and you'll notice that they've been outyardaged in six of their last eight games, including last week's TCU debacle. The Rebels may be fired up because they need to win out, but redshirt freshman QB Mike Clausen will be making his first start. Take the Lobos and their superior ground game.

Pick: New Mexico 26 UNLV 10

Upset Special:

Marsahall (+250) at East Carolina

On Sept. 7, this pick would have looked mad. Marsahll was fresh off a 5-TD shallacking at Wisconsin while the Pirates had just upset Virginia Tech and blow out West Virginia. But in recent weeks, these teams have gone opposite directions and now they battle for the lead in CUSA East.

The Herd upset the Pirates last year to keep them out of the conference championship, look for it to happen again.

Pick: Marshall 31 East Carolina 21

Yuck!

Just woke up and realized last night wasn't a dream. Skins suck. Skins fans who sell their tickets to Steelers fans suck. I suck.

--Nate

Post-Week 10 rankings in brief

New rankings are on the sidebar. As you can see, I have no problem with Texas Tech leaping Penn State since I have them jumping above Alabama as well.

In I-AA, I'd like to recognize #2 Appalachian State's 10-TD show on Friday against Wofford, who I previously ranked #3. Top-ranked James Madison held ground though by putting a beatdown on Delaware.

Off to MNF tonight! Go Skins!

--Nate

Lockdown: Week 10

By Nate Sandstrom

Alright, finally a Saturday morning where I'm not traveling or working and can put my full attention on lockdown. After a fast start, Mark and I have been losing our shirts lately, so we need to turn it around. Here's to a perfect weekend!

Updated standings:
Nate: 15-14 (-$40)
Mark: 9-10 (-$200)

Upset special:
Nate: 3-6 (+$440)
Mark: 1-4 (-$190)

Toss-Up
Nate and Mark tied at 1-1

Nate's picks:
Florida (-6.5) vs. Georgia

Forget about Georgia stomping on the Gator after last year's game, Florida is simply a better team. They've scored 30 points in every contest except their 26-3 domination of the Canes.

We have to acknowledge that UGa just put up 52 against LSU, yet the Bulldog attack has proven more inconsistent over the year. If you can contain Knowson Moreno, you can contain the offense. Expect the Gators to do just that.

Pick: Florida 35 Georgia 20

Washington at USC (-46)

The Trojans have no class. The Huskies have to talent. Uh-oh! USC just beat the even worse Washington State Cougars 69-0, while Washington was just blown out by Notre Dame.

Not much too watch here but see how little Ty Willingham cares when Pete Carroll passes on first down in the fourth quarter while up by 6 TD's.

Pick: USC 56 Washington 0

New England (+6) at Indianapolis

I've said it since Week 1, the Colts suck. They still have flashes of being the old Colts, but outside of their blowout over the Ravens they have done nothing.

Randy Moss is on the injury report, but he'll play and play well in prime time per usual. Half team is on the injury report in fact, but we all know Belichick is a liar.

My only worry is that Belichick will outsmart himself and not run the ball (see Ravens game plan vs. Colts). Even then, I'll go back to my theory of the Colts sucking.

My pick: New England 26 Indianapolis 17

Upset Special:

Duke (+275) at Wake Forest

Not much of a payoff on this one, but Duke has been good to us here on lockdown, taking down UVa. with the points and beating Vandy outright last week. Unlike the overvalued Dukey basketball team, Blue Devil football seems to be overlooked by the public. They are veteran team with good leadership under new coach David Cutcliffe.

Meanwhile, Wake Forest has imploded since they beat Florida State. They are 1-3 in the last four, with the only victory coming against fellow flop Clemson Tigers.

Pick: Duke 17 Wake Forest 13

Power Ratings: Halloween

By Nate Sandstrom

My Internet connection has sucked all week. So here you go, my ratings. I'm tired and don't really have anything else to say right now. Maybe tomorrow night; I'm plan-less and costume-less for Halloween. I hope I have candy left over.

1. Tennessee (7-0, 1). Still undefeated so still #1.
2. N.Y. Giants (6-1, 2). How seriously will they take Cowboys this week?
3. Washington (6-2, 3). 'Skins most-hyped regular season game in years on MNF.
4. Pittsburgh (5-2, 7). Who knew you need a backup long snapper?
5. Carolina (6-2, 6). Need to another road win to really impress me.
6. Buffalo (5-2, 4). Don't want to lose more division games.
7. Tampa Bay (5-3, 5). Didn't convert early chances against Big D.
8. Arizona (4-3, 8). How long until typical Cards meltdown?
9. Dallas (5-3, 15). Got a win they badly needed.
10. New England (5-2, 10). Back in first, based on tie-breaker.
11. Chicago (4-3, 11). Looking for a break-out week from Devin Hester.
12. Philadelphia (4-3, 12). Best last-place team in NFL.
13. New Orleans (4-4, 13). Got a win against a team with an even worse D.
14. Green Bay (4-3, 17). Starting to put slide behind them.
15. San Diego (3-5, 9). Norv, firing your D coordinator will not save you.
16. Baltimore (4-3, 18). In playoffs if season was over today.
17. Atlanta (4-3, 16). A polite hand for over-acheivement thus far.
18. Denver (4-3, 19). Everyone else is picking on the defense, why should I?
19. Miami (3-4, 22 ). Who can figure this team out?
20. Cleveland (3-4, 23 ). Turning slow start around.
21. Jacksonville (3-4, 14). Last year was their chance.
22. New York Jets (4-3, 20). Nearly lost to Raiders and Chiefs back-to-back.
23. Minnesota (3-4, 21). Time to rally is now or never.
24. Indianapolis (3-4, 25). Living on reputation.
25. St. Louis (2-5, 27). Win over Cards gets them back in playoff hunt.
26. Houston (3-4, 24). Would be in second if they hadn't tanked Colts game.
27. Oakland (2-5, 28). Uhhhh ...... Running back platoon exciting for fantasy teams.
28. Seattle (2-5, 30). Could this be the season saved by Seneca?
29. San Francisco (2-6, 29). A wise man once told me, "Keep your pants on, dog!"
30. Kansas City (1-6, 29). Losing with integrity?
31. Detroit (0-7, 32). At least they're covering the spread.
32. Cincinnati (0-8, 31). If they just go 7-1 they'll make my prediction.

Week 9 Jessup Lockdown

Believe it or not, I was planning on taking Duke in the upset special! Nate's already done that, so I'll have to switch up my game plan.

In order to break out of my funk, I'm also going different and doing an over/under this week:

Over (52.5) USC/Arizona
I don't believe USC's defense is as good as advertised. I think when they face a quality offense, they can be scored on, just as they were at Oregon State. I'm not saying they will give up 30, but I'm counting on them to give up at least 20 and then score 35.

Alabama (-5) at Tennessee
I expect Bama to slip up soon, but I don't see it happening here, against Tennesse's paltry offense. The Tide will get several takeaways and protect the ball. Bama 27, Tennessee 12

Tennessee (-4) vs. Indianapolis
Indy stinks. They beat the Ravens, that's it. Look for the Titans to roll all over them and knock Peyton Manning around like a ragdoll. Titans 24, Indy 12

Upset Special
St. Louis Rams +290 at New England
I'm not saying this because I suddenly believe in St. Louis under Jim Haslett. I'm saying it because I don't buy into New England. I believe they can be run on and Steven Jackson is going to have a big day. If the Rams' defense can sit on a safe cover 2 and keep Moss out of the game, they should be able to take this game. New England is just too injured. Rams 24, Pats 21

Lockdown: Week 8

By Nate Sandstrom

I got to make this quick or I'm going to miss my flight. Here we go:

Kentucky +25.5 at Florida
Ga. Tech -12 vs. Virginia
Eagles -9 vs. Falcons
Upset Special: Duke +320 at Vanderbilt

NFL Power Ratings: October 24

By Nate Sandstrom
According to my preseason picks, the Chargers were to meet the Saints in the Super Bowl; however, with these two teams combining for eight losses it looks like a team playing a regular season game in London may never go to a Super Bowl. This week's power ratings spot some other trends.

1. Tennessee (6-0, ranked 1 last week). Collins is 2-0 vs. teams he played in 2000 playoffs.
2. N.Y. Giants (5-1, 2). 0-1 ATS in week following home game against West Coast team.
3. Washington (5-2, 3). 0-1 SU this year against winless teams with 4+ losses.
4. Buffalo (5-1, 6). 0-1 SU when first-round draft picks quarterback majority of team's snaps.
5. Tampa Bay (5-2, 4). Face former MVP QB Brad Johnson, who is 3-1 SU against teams he previously played for.
6. Carolina (5-2, 10). 4-0 SU and 3-0-1 ATS at home this year. Tough to win homefield for playoffs when you are 1-2 on the road.
7. Pittsburgh (5-1, 9). 5-1 SU in the season that occurs after a Pittsburgh resident is jailed for impersonating players in football/towel-crazy town.
8. Arizona (4-2, 5). Cards are 1-8 ATS the last nine in Week 8. Objection, relevance? Overruled.
9. San Diego (3-4, 7). 3-3-1 ATS this year. Man, does Norv make good teams mediocre.
10. New England (4-2, 18). Were 6-0 ATS at this point last year.
11. Chicago (4-3, 14). Undefeated ATS this season when giving up 40+ points.
12. Philadelphia (3-3, 12). 3-0 ATS this season when Akers drinks from the Fountain of Youth before the game.
13. New Orleans (3-4 , 11). Now 11-12 SU since being considered Super Bowl contenders.
14. Jacksonville (3-3, 17). 1-0 ATS since Matt Jones sentenced to drug court, not prison.
15. Dallas (4-3, 8). Lost last two SU, see 2000 Redskins; Brad Johnson was on that team too.
16. Atlanta (4-2, 13). 3-0 ATS on turf this year. Why don't they play Philly at the Vet?
17. Green Bay (4-3, ). 1-0 ATS in games when Favre tries to coach opponents.
18. Baltimore (3-3, 21). Ravens are 3-0 ATS when Flacco does not throw a pick. Raiders DBs have seven picks thus far; so does Flacco.
19. Denver (4-3, 19). 1-0 ATS when ref Ed Hochuli forgets where he is and what is going on while calling games.
20. N.Y. Jets (3-3, 16). 2-7 last nine ATS vs. teams with losing records. Now play KC, which has nearly the losingest record.
21. Minnesota (3-4, 26). Undefeated ATS under Coach Childress when game counts for nothing.
22. Miami (2-4, 20). 2-0 SU against teams in 2007 AFC title game. 0-4 SU against teams not in that game. Have just one game left vs. teams in that game.
23. Cleveland (2-4, 22). 4-2 ATS this year, which clearly makes the money worth it.
24. Houston (2-4, 24). 1-0 when you use the teaser in games in which Sage Rosenfels starts.
25. Indianapolis (3-3, 15). Should be 1-5.
26. San Francisco (2-5 , 25). Teams who've changed coaches during this season are 3-1 ATS under new direction.
27. St. Louis (2-4, 30). 2-0 ATS under Haslett; also 2-0 ATS against Dallas ans Washington when they give the ball to St. Louis D three or more times a game.
28. Oakland (1-5, 27). Nice kick in OT last week, but Raiders are still 0-1 ATS when attempting FG over 70 yards.
29. Kansas City (1-5, 28). 0-5 SU when not playing Denver run defense.
30. Seattle (1-5, 29). 1-0 ATS when Seneca Wallace starts.
31. Cincinnati (0-7, 31). Does it really matter?
32. Detroit (0-6, 32). Won last 2 ATS, proof the curse of Bobby Layne has ended.

Heimsan Watch: Boy, is Javon Ringer out of this thing

By Nate Sandstrom

Well, as soon as I went against the national tide and put Javon Ringer on top and Colt McCoy third, this past Saturday reminded me again that I may be an idiot(.blogspot.com).

The same Ohio State team that nearly lost to Wisconsin two weeks ago held Ringer to 69 yards and kept the nation's leading scorer out of the end zone in a 45-7 romp. Ringer #1, err.... wrong.

Meanwhile, young Colt McCoy completes 29 of 32 passes (not a typo), runs for 2 TDs and throws for 2 more in the biggest game of the day. Needless to say, I have a new #1.

Sorry, Iowa RB Shonn Greene, stats accumulated against the Wisconsin D don't count. Illinois QB Juice Williams, that applies to you this weekend.

I changed up the links this week to bring you to hype Web sites rather than stat pages. Enjoy!

1. Colt McCoy, Jr., QB, Texas (Last week: 3rd). Smart and athletic, according to this Web site. What a catch!
2. Sam Bradford, QB, Oklahoma. (Not ranked). Follows up loss to Texas with 468-yard effort. And has the same Web site design as Colt McCoy. Pretty much guarentees they will be 1/2 in the voting.
3. Dez Bryant, Soph., WR, Oklahoma St. (Not ranked). Posts his second 200-yard game of the season in advance of match-up with Texas. Be his friend.
4. Scott McKillop, Sr., LB, Pitt. (5th). Piles up five tackles quicker than it takes my computer to load his Pitt Web site. How about a wiki Web page. Make up your own stories, then make them come true a la tonight's Always Sunny in Philadelphia.
5. Chase Daniel, Sr., QB, Missouri. (4th). Drops a spot for second straight loss and his Web site's failure to mention that Mizzou lost at Texas.

ESPN's poll here. HeismanPundit's here.

Coverage delayed

I have two back-to-back h-e-double-hockey-stickish days so all content is to be updated on Thursday.

--Nate

FBS Rankings: Oct. 20

By Nate Sandstrom

I thought Texas was ripe for a fall this weekend, but boy was I wrong. The Horns' 8-touchdown showcase in a 56-31 romp over Mizzou has me moving them over Penn State this week.

I still have the Lions #2 ahead of Alabama, who for the second straight week held on for a narrow victory. Still, an SEC win is an SEC win so that keeps the Tide at #3.

Now the biggest question will be what would happen if my #4 Oklahoma State (#6 BCS) were to upset the 'Horns in Austin, though that doesn't seem likely to happen.

Elsewhere in the poll, Ohio State jumps back into the rankings after demolishing Michigan State. Meanwhile, Tulsa may be looking for a BCS bid as they move up the rankings; however, they also need Utah to lose in the Mountain West.

1. Texas (7-0, 2). Won the biggest game of the week back-to-back. Now for one more.
2. Penn State (8-0, 1). Need a big win over suddenly resurgent Buckeyes this week.
3. Alabama (7-0, 3). Should still be able to handle Vols on Saturday, who come off best game.
4. Oklahoma St. (7-0, 4). Have confidence to beat Texas, but not sure about talent.
5. Oklahoma (6-1, 5). Actually fourth in Big 12 South standings.
6. Florida (6-1, 6). Tebow looks to keep last breakout game going.
7. Georgia (6-1, 8). Next two weeks (at LSU, vs. Florida) will decide title hopes.
8. LSU (5-1, 9). Loads of talent but no easy wins since mid-Septemer.
9. USC (5-1, 10). Still in BCS race with SEC and Big 12 teams playing each other.
10. Texas Tech (7-0, 11). You have to give them credit for wining.
11. Utah (8-0, 15). This may not last; have to beat TCU and BYU still.
12. Missouri (5-2, 7). Will still get to Big 12 title game.
13. Pittsburgh (5-1, 20). Opening loss to Bowling Green cost them a spot in the Top 10.
14. Ohio State (7-1, NR). Looked like Ohio State of old for first time all year. Now get Penn St.
15. Tulsa (7-0, 16). Tulsa just scored on UTEP again.
16. Boise State (6-0, 17). Wish they were playing one more BCS team to get a gauge.
17. Ball State (7-0, 18). MAC West may be better than half of Big Ten.
18. South Florida (6-1, 21). Selvie's back, but Bulls now need Pitt to lose.
19. Vanderbilt (5-2, 23). Move up via good effort at Gerogia.
20. Sotuh Carolina (5-3, 24). Replace Ole Miss as best 3-loss team in nation.
21. Kansas (5-2, 22). Played better than I expected at Oklahoma.
22. Boston College (5-1, NR). How does this team always win?
23. Cincinnati (5-1, NR). Only loss is Oklahoma, can backup QB keep them in it?
24. TCU (7-1, NR). Showed BYU who was better 3-letter school.
25. Kentucky (5-2, NR). Underrated, stout defense keeps them competing against anyone.

Other rankings.

Week 8 Jessup Lockdown

I, like Nate, suffered my first slaughter last weekend. But those are too be expected. Market corrections, we'll call them. Think of this week's picks as buying low! Apparently that is supposed to make you feel better. With that theme in mind, my first pick is a low spread:

Wake Forest (-2) at Maryland
The conventional wisdom around Maryland is that they play down to their lesser competition and get up for the big games. I'm not sure I'm a believer in that. I think Cal just came to town and played a horrible game and the time differential really hurt them. The one thing that would concern me in this pick is that the Terps clearly play better at home, averaging 43 points scored at home and only 11.3 on the road! However, Wake Forest is a good road team (2-0) with a good defense that is only allowing 15 points a game. Take Wake and give the 2. They'll put another nail in Maryland's slowly built coffin Wake 24 - MD 12

Texas (-4.5) vs Missouri
Look for the markets to finally settle this week and a #1 won't get knocked off. The Tigers have only played one road game this year. Yes, they won by 35 in Nebraska, but I look at Texas as the more tested team and therefore their numbers and performance is more reliable. They won't look ahead the way other #1s have this year. Texas 41 - Missouri 30

Tampa Bay (-10.5) vs. Seattle
Finally, I'm getting on Tampa's bandwagon. Let's hope I'm not buying high. Look, Seattle is losing its games by an average of 18.5 points. Tampa Bay is winning its games by an average of 10. Tampa is a superior home team. Seattle is traveling across the country, 1-4 against the spread, and the last time they came east against a good NFC team, they lost 44-6. Tampa 35 - Seattle 21

Upset Special
Iowa State (+7.5) vs. Nebraska
Iowa State has played a tough schedule with three of the last four on the road. Nebraska has only had to play on the road once and that was last week. So now they have two in a row on the road. Both teams are on a downslide and one of them has to recover. This will be a battle of the wills and I like the home team to come out on top. Iowa State 24 - Nebraska 21

Lockdown: Week 8 Edition

By Nate Sandstrom

Early last Saturday I was talking to my buddy Jim Butts and he commented how well I was doing on lockdown. Clearly he was trying to jinx me because I went 1-4 for the weekend. At least that was better than Mark, although he beat me in the Texas-Oklahoma toss-up.

Follow me at your own risk, but I will hope to bounce back. In Denver for a wedding this weekend so you get a rushed edition as I get ready for my flight. I'm banking on more top-ranked teams being upset, and not just because I want to be proved right by putting Penn State #1 this week. To keep that thought going, I'm starting with the upset special:

Mississippi (+375) at Alabama

The Rebels are the best damned 3-3 team in the nation. Their three losses are by a combined 15 points. That close game experience will pay off this week and they will pull their second upset of a Top 10 and previously undefeated team.

Alabama's in the midst of the weakest part of the schedule and this is the perfect spot for them to so complacency. I know I took this same theory in taking Kentucky over 'bama, but get this one in quick, the payoff is falling like a rock.

Pick: Mississippi 31 Alabama 29

Missouri at Texas (-4.5)

Always take the team with their backs against the wall, right? Does that still apply when you're going with a team that hasn't won in Austin since the 1890's? Chalk last week up to a look-ahead game for Missouri and the last century of their trips to Texas as a look-ahead century. Serioulsy though, Missouri is really good and Texas is fat and happy after beating Oklahoma. The Tigers will be motivated to stay in the national title hunt while the 'Horns will have a short stay at #1. Don't worry Texas fans, you should have a crack at the #2 OSU Pokes the next week.

Pick: Missouri 35 Texas 28

Georgia Tech (-2) at Clemson

How did that mid-season coaching change work out for Auburn (the only game we had right here at lockdown) last week? Poor Tommy Bowden? Sure, Georgia Tech was outyardaged by Gardner-Webb and barely won, but chalk that up as a look ahead they still won. Clemson has a new QB, a new coach and Spiller is out.

Pick: Georgia Tech 27 Clemson 13

Minnesota at Chicago (-3)

A-Pete should top 100 yards, but count on the Bears sacking Gus Frerotte at least four times. Devin Hester will torch the Vikes again and I will put Kyle Orton on next week's first edition of MVP Watch.

Pick: Chicago 26 Minnesota 14

Wo!

The Detroit Lions have been outyardaged by 170+ per game.

NFL Power Ratings Oct. 16: A day late, a dollar short

By Nate Sandstrom
After the NFC East went 1-3 over the weekend everything I thought I knew about the order of the NFL is gone. Talking to a few people at the bar last night, it seems like no one can easily identify who they think the top five teams in the league are.

Here's my crack, they it may be the least confident I've ever been in these rankings.

(W-L, previous rank)
1. Tennessee (5-0, 4 ). By virtue of being last unbeaten.
2. N.Y. Giants (4-1, 1). Is old Eli back or was it just a bad day?
3. Washington (4-2, 2). They won Rams game in every way but the score.
4. Tampa Bay (4-2, 9). Two drives from 6-0.
5. Arizona (4-2, 18). Two wins against my top 10.
6. Buffalo (4-1, 8). Bye week was well-timed.
7. San Diego (3-3, 10). Finally beat the Pats.
8. Dallas (4-2, 3). Could the team of destiny finish last in the NFC East?
9. Pittsburgh (4-1, 6). Practically clinched AFC North already.
10. Carolina (4-2, 5). Hey, one loss in six years at Tampa ain't that bad.
11. New Orleans (3-3, 19). Just wait 'til Brees gets Colston and Shockey back.
12. Philadelphia (3-3, 12). Whose career is ending faster, David Akers or Matt Stover?
13. Atlanta (4-2, 24). Can't believe I'm doing this, but they've earned this spot.
14. Chicago (3-3, 7). Hester starting to produce on offense.
15. Indianapolis (3-2, 22). Nice win vs. Ravens, but I don't take that much from it.
16. N.Y. Jets (3-2, 17). Definitely in the playoff hunt.
17. Jacksonville (3-3, 13). Up and down unless they keep it on the ground.
18. New England (3-2, 16). Belichick is a gen.... oh, never mind.
19. Denver (4-2, 11). Fast start ending quickly.
20. Miami (2-3, 15). All this Wildcat talk. They did lose to the Texans.
21. Baltimore (2-3, 14). Four of next five on the road. Need to win two of them.
22. Cleveland (2-3 29). Thought preseason was eight games, not four.
23. Green Bay (3-3, 20). Peaked in Week 2.
24. Houston (1-4, 28). Now they got the first one out of the way will they keep it going?
25. San Francisco (2-4, 23). O'Sullivan was throwing the ball like punts in fourth against Iggs.
26. Minnesota (3-3, 21). Strangely, are likely to be in first if they somehow win at Chicago.
27. Oakland (1-4, 26). Who cares?
28. Kansas City (1-4, 27). Ditto.
29. Seattle (1-4, 25). Watch out for the Seneca Wallace/Charlie Frye platoon.
30. St. Louis (1-4, 32). Enjoy that win Rams, it may be their last this year.
31. Cincinnati (0-6, 30 ). Why does anyone still cover what Chad Johnson says?
32. Detroit (0-5, 31). Look Kitna, Greise got hurt and Garcia's playing so maybe you have hope.