Week 14 power ratings

NFL Power Ratings — Week 14

1. New England (12-0) — Everyone needs a little luck.
2. Indianapolis (10-2) — Pretty much wrapped up division.
3. Dallas (11-1) — I guess I have to stop saying they are over-rated.
4. Pittsburgh (9-3) — Don't make guarantees you can't keep.
5. Green Bay (10-2) — Glad there isn't a BCS in NFL, or Dallas game might have really mattered.
6. San Diego (7-5) — This weekend is homecoming for Philip Rivers, think he'll be welcome?
7. Seattle (8-4) — Wildly inconsistent teams wins a big one.
8. Jacksonville (8-4) — Colts don't want to face this team a third time.
9. Minnesota (6-6) — Playing some of the best ball in the league the last three weeks.
10. Cleveland (7-5) — After A-Pete, Joe Thomas is ROY.
11. Tampa Bay (8-4) — If you give them the opportunity, they'll take it.
12. Tennessee (7-5) — Off the slide, but Chargers next.
13. Buffalo (6-6) — No-name defense doing the job.
14. N.Y. Giants (8-4) — Meltdown is spelled G-I-A-N-T-S.
15. Arizona (6-6) — A few bounces from being 9-3, but were swept by Niners.
16. Houston (5-7) — I guess they can lose with Andre Johnson
17. New Orleans (5-7) — Tampa loss was costly.
18. Philadelphia (5-7) — Please trade McNabb. I'm sure Feely is the answer. Ha!
19. Washington (5-7) — 5-11 more likely than 9-7.
20. Chicago (5-7) — Remember when Bears fans criticized management for drafting Devin Hester. I do.
21. Denver (5-7) — I should have seen this coming.
22. St. Louis (3-9) — Now if only they had their best five linemen back.
23. Detroit (6-6) — Tough to get to 10 wins now.
24. Oakland (4-8) — Defense is improving.
25. Carolina (5-7) — Talk about a team that needs a QB.
26. Cincinnati (4-8) — Biggest disappointment in NFL.
27. N.Y. Jets (3-9) — Could win their way out of a higher draft pick.
28. Baltimore (4-8) — How do they build off a game like they had? Complain about the refs.
29. Kansas City (4-8) — This ship is sinking fast.
30. Atlanta (3-9) — They still may win more games than I predicted
31. San Francisco (3-9) — Thankful for the Cardinals.
32. Miami (0-12) — If they didn't beat the Jets at home, who will they beat. Maybe Ravens.

--Nate Sandstrom

Heisman Watch Final

I can't remember a year when I had less of an opinion on who should win the Heisman (other than not Matt Ryan).

The final Heisman Pundit poll gives it to Tim Tebow, barely over Darren McFadden. At ESPN, the poll also goes to Tebow, although Ivan Maisel gives it to Dennis Dixon. Tebow also leads at USA Today and the New York Times.

It looks like Tebow will win, and it's hard for me to argue against a guy who accounted for 51 touchdowns in 12 games. That was on a schedule that featured 8 bowl teams, and another, in Troy, that could've been.

But people say it's wide open for a reason.

Here's a look at the other contenders.
Quarterbacks:
• Sam Bradford, Fr., Oklahoma
For: Nation's leader in pass efficiency, we saw what OU looked like without him
Against: 8-19, 2 picks in loss to Colorado
• Tim Tebow, Soph., Florida
For: 51 TDs, more than 3,000 passing, 750 rushing
Against: three-loss team; what was his defining win? South Carolina? Tennessee in Sept.?
• Colt Brennan, Sr., Florida
For: Gaudy numbers, nearly 4,200 passing with 38 TDs, led game-winning drives
Against: Those game-winning drives were against SJSU, Washington
• Dennis Dixon, Sr., Oregon
For: Led nation's best offense until he blew out his knee against Arizona, 161.2 passer rating
Against: Missed last three games as Ducks slid from BCS to Sun Bowl
• Patrick White, Sr.,West Virginia
For: One of the nation's best dual threats; led explosive offense
Against: Is he Dennis Dixon with worse numbers against worst competition?; loss to Pitt

Next Tier: Todd Reesing, Chase Daniels, Cullen Harper, Graham Harrell, Andre Woodson

Running Backs:
• Kevin Smith, Jr., Central Florida
For: Could set NCAA rushing record, with exception of SF game, came up big when needed
Against: Plays in Conference USA
• Darren McFadden, Jr., Arkansas
For: Does everything well, #4 in rushing
Against: May not be best running back on team; Ark. lost four games
• Rashard Mendenhall, Jr., Illinois
For: Led Illini to Rose Bowl with 6.2 ypc
Against: Juice Williams considered hero of Ohio State game
• Chris Wells, Soph., Ohio State
For: Made more clutch runs when needed than anyone I saw
Against: Only finished 12th in rushing
• Felix Jones, Jr., Arkansas
For: Averaged 9.1 ypc, one of top kick returners in the nation
Against: Probably not best running back on team; Ark. lost four games

Next Tier: Matt Forte, Ray Rice, Mike Hart, Jonathan Stewart, Jamaal Charles, Javon Ringer, Knowshon Moreno, Ian Johnson, C.J. Spiller

Best at other positions: WR: Jordy Nelson, Michael Crabtree, Ryan Grice-Mullen, Mario Manningham, DeSean Jackson; TE: Travis Beckum, DL: George Selvie, Chris Long, Shawn Crable, Nick Reed, Maurice Evans, Eric Norwood, Jonal Saint-Dic; LB: Scott McKillop, Jordan Dizon, Erin Henderson, Mike Klinkenborg, James Laurenaitis, DB: Aqib Taliq, Leondis McKelvin, Jack Ikegwuonu, Alphonso Smith, Trae Williams

If I had a real Heisman ballot I can only vote for three, so here it is.
1. Tim Tebow: Can't ignore the numbers on that schedule
2. Dennis Dixon: Would've won if he stayed healthy
3. Kevin Smith: Expect him to set the rushing record, he has to be on ballot
If I could vote for 5:
4. Chris Wells: Maybe I watched more Ohio State than other people, but he always impressed me
5. Darren McFadden: Does it all.

It's been fun. I'm sure I left some people out, on my best of the rest. Tell me about it!

--Nate Sandstrom

Top 25-End of the Regular Season

It's the only poll that really matters and I have to admit I had a tough time picking who I wanted to put at #2 this week.

I had little issue putting Ohio State at #1. Everyone can rip the Big 10 all they want, I think they will come out in bowl season and show some teams. I can tell you the Buckeyes won't look past their SEC opponent this year.

Which brings me to LSU, who I decided in the end to give a slight edge over USC and Oklahoma. USC, Oklahoma and West Virginia can all point to injuries for one of their two losses, but the team I feel really bad for is Oregon, who I think would be in the title game if Dixon was hurt.

I've had LSU lower than most all year because I've been annoyed by how close their winning games. But in the end they won them, and that their two L's are in 3OT I went with them.

I don't feel very bad for Georgia, who was blown out by Tennessee. Sorry Mark Richt, that and a home loss to South Carolina is what cost you, not some media decree. He better hope the rest of the Bulldogs don't sulk or they may get Boise Stated.

But probably not. Hawaii has drawn a lot of comparisons to last year's Boise State squad, but I don't think they come close talent-wise. Boise was a legitimate Top 5 team last year, Hawaii is borderline Top 20. But hey, they win close games.

By the way, for those who want a playoff, there's one solution: Stop watching. As long as you're tuning in and buying tickets, it ain't changing, no matter how many self-righteous rants the pundits spew.

Here's my final poll:
1. Ohio State (11-1). Remember when everyone said they were out of it?
2. LSU (11-2). Hoping OSU game doesn't go to triple overtime.
3. USC (10-2). Wish they had that Stanford game back.
4. Oklahoma (11-2). My pre-season pick to win it came oh so close.
5. Georgia (10-2). Consolation for not getting in BCS title game: $15 mill+ from Sugar Bowl.
6. Missouri (11-2). Need to get the Sooners off the schedule.
7. Virginia Tech (11-2). You lost to LSU by six TDs. Quit whining.
8. West Virginia (10-2). Steve Slaton had 11 yards against Pitt!
9. Florida (9-3). If BCS had passed on Illini, Florida fans would've seen Zook in bowl game.
10. Illinois (9-3). Hey Gators, you in the BCS?
11. Kansas (11-1). Mark Mangenius: Shows everyone should play #96 schedule.
12. Arizona St. (10-2). Hawaii's end zone interception costs Sun Devil a home BCS game.
13. Boston College (10-3). Matty Ice threw one of the worst passes I've seen at end of VT game.
14. Wisconsin (9-3). Win over Vols would give Wisky their third straight 10-win season.
15. Auburn (8-4). Tommy Tuberville should lose eight games more often, he might be in NFL.
16. Tennessee (9-4). Ainge is SEC Title Game MVP.
17. Arkansas (8-4). McFadden and Felix hope Missouri sulks about missing BCS.
18. Cincinnati (9-3). Bearcats get back-to-back bowls for first time since 2000-2002.
19. Clemson (9-3). Narrow wins against Cocks sets up Tigers vs. Tigers in Chick-Fil-A Bowl.
20. South Florida (9-3). It's not #2, but successful season.
21. Virginia (9-3). Texas Tech should present good match-up in Gator Bowl.
22. Hawaii (12-0). Will have a chance to prove me wrong against Georgia.
23. Texas Tech (8-4). Win over Oklahoma the feather in their cap.
24. Kentucky (7-5). It's a long fall since earlier this year, but they won me over in the end.
25. Texas (9-3). Almost put Southern Illinois here instead.

--Nate Sandstrom

Maryland High School Championships

Want to see a local team win at M&T Bank Stadium? Head to next week's high school championships.

Two games are set, while the rest of the semi-finals are today.

Thursday, 7 p.m., 3A Title Game
#2 Damascus (Montgomery County, 12-1) vs. #1 Hereford (Baltimore County, 13-0)

A pair of juggernaut football programs face each other in this game.

Hereford has won nine Baltimore County championships since 1996 and state titles in 197, 2001 and 2002. Coach Steve Turnbaugh's eighth undefeated team in his 13th year at the school is led by senior RB Lonnie Liggins, who has rushed for 1,200 yards this season. The Bulls beat Lackey 35-20 on Friday, although the game was tight throughout. Senior DE Gordy Boone entered the game with a team leading 8.5 sacks and was third on the team with 45 tackles. Herford runs the wing T on offense and a 5-2 defense.

Damascus, in the playoffs for the 10th straight season is led by senior running back Evan Zedler and senior QB Kyle Frazier. Zedler reached the 2,000-yard mark in a 35-6 win over Wilde Lake on Friday. Frazier, (6'2, 210) rushed for threw his 20th TD pass on Friday, against just two picks. Senior LB Brian Wittenberger leads the team in tackles, with 121 entering Friday. Damascus runs a pro-I offense and a 3-4 defense. They won state titles in 1981, 1992, 1993, 1996, 2003 and 2005.

Saturday, 3:30 p.m. 2A Title Game
#2 Eastern Tech (Baltimore, 13-0) vs. #1 River Hill (Howard County, 13-0)

River Hill may be the most loaded team in the state, having outscored their opponents 537-14 this season, including 97-0 in three playoff games. They tied a state record on Friday, posting their 11th shutout of the season.

Don't sleep on Eastern Tech, who have outscored their opponents 82-12 in their playoff run. This is the Mavericks fifth straight playoff trip; they lost in the title game in 2003. They rolled over Clarksburg 35-0 on Friday. They entered the game with 3,065 rushing yards, but senior QB Travis Crane has also thrown 13 TDs. Their 5-2 defense has 27 INT's this year, and they run the Wing T offense. Their running backs include seniors Derryck Davis and Darian Conners.

However, they lack the blue-chip stars at River Hill.

Junior LB/WR Leron Eaddy, Junior RB/CB Malek Redd, Junior RB/CB Michael Campanaro, senior LB/RB Zach Martin and senior LB/TE Jonathan Hill are among the leaders of this very good football team. They also feature junior QB Luke Hostetler, former NYG QB Jeff Hostetler's nephew. Martin was on crutches Friday after he sprained his ankle in the first quarter, but Coach Brian Van Deusen said he hopes Martin will be able to play next weekend.

River Hill came up short against Friendly, another very talented team, in the 3A state final title game and a very motivated. Senior LB Alex Turner told me last night that the shutout record was an afterthought compared to winning the state title.

--Nate Sandstrom

2A Football Championships set

Just got back from one of the 2A state semifinals. River Hill (Clarksville) rolled Elkton 28-0. Junior RB Malek Redd broke 55- and 70-yard TDs in the first half. River Hill pretty much grinded out the clock in the second half. They tied a state record with their 11th shutout of the year.

If you want to see these guys in action, they will play Eastern Tech (Baltimore) in the 2A final at 3:30 on Saturday at M & T Bank stadium.

Howard County's other representative in the semis, Wilde Lake, lost at Damascus 35-6.

More tomorrow morning.

--Nate Sandstrom

Leave of absence

If you've been here for two weeks you've probably noticed that I haven't posted. It was going okay for a while, but during the holidays I couldn't keep it. Might try to resurrect this this weekend — I hope to have early scores for state high school football playoff games, I should be at either River Hill-Elkton or Wilde Lake-Damascus.

R.I.P. Sean Taylor

--Nate Sandstrom

NFL Power Ratings-Nov. 15, 2007

1. New England (9-0). At least they finally didn't cover.
2. Indianapolis (7-2). Loss to San Diego knocked them out of AFC two seed.
3. Pittsburgh (7-2). Steelers fans don't take well to talk of trap game.
4. Dallas (8-1). Should move to 9-1 against 'Skins. Let the hype continue.
5. Green Bay (8-1). -9.5 vs. Carolina. Lock it down.
6. San Diego (5-4). Even when they win, they lose.
7. Jacksonville (6-3). Can they avoid a melt down this year?
8. Tennessee (6-3). Vince Young's passer rating is 62.2.
9. Cleveland (5-4). I had this team in the league's bottom three to start the year.
10. Seattle (5-4). Perhaps the league's most inconsistent team.
11. Buffalo (5-4). Lee Evans has been hot, can he win for Bills w/o Marshawn Lynch?
12. N.Y. Giants (6-3). Gutcheck game against Detroit.
13. Tampa Bay (5-4). Not losing NFC South.
14. Detroit (6-3). Gutcheck game against Giants.
15. Arizona (4-5). Still control destiny in the West.
16. Philadelphia (4-5). Westbrook is a one-man show.
17. Washington (5-4). Gibbs-speak explained.
18. Carolina (4-5). How has this team won four games?
19. New Orleans (4-5). Expect a shootout aginst Houston on Sunday.
20. Denver (4-5). Finally, a win that wasn't close.
21. Chicago (4-5). Rex is back. Is that good or bad?
22. Houston (4-5). Andre Johnson is back and they are immediately more dangerous.
23. Kansas City (4-5). Wow, there are a lot of 4-5 teams.
24. Cincinnati (3-6). Wish they could play the Ravens a lot more.
25. Baltimore (4-5). 1-8 ATS.
26. Oakland (2-7). Daunte loves playing his old teams.
27. Minnesota (3-6). No Adrian Peterson? Uh-oh.
28. Atlanta (3-6). Things are getting quietly better.
29. St. Louis (1-8). Backup O-line getting used to each other.
30. N.Y. Jets (1-8). Maybe Curtis Martin will put on a uniform.
31. San Francisco (2-7). No comment.
32. Miami (0-9). A team after Jim Mora's heart: "I just hope we win a game!"

--Nate Sandstrom

Heisman Watch-- (almost) Nov. 13, 2007

The Heisman Race is winding down, in what has been one of the least memorable races I can remember. Last year was also boring although that's because Troy Smith led almost wire-to-wire.

I think the games and upsets have been so good this year that many players from many teams are popping up. Heisman Pundit calls it a three-man race. I mostly agree with his analysis.

ESPN has Dixon in the lead as well, for some reason people are still voting for Matt Ryan. I would think the losses would hurt D-Mc more, especially since Felix out-stats him.

Chase Daniel, Sam Bradford and Todd Reesing were all near misses on my Top 10, but whichever of those three emerge from the Big 12 as champ certainly have a good shot.

1. Dennis Dixon, Sr., QB, Oregon — Runs nation's best "O." 20/3, 163.1; also 549 and 8 TD rush.
2. Tim Tebow, So., QB, Florida — 7 TDs against SC! 23/5, 177.1; 718 and 19 TD on ground.
3. Pat White, Jr., QB, West Virginia — Game winner agains L'ville. 157.7 and 803 for 10 rush.
4. George Selvie, So., DE, South Florida — Sick numbers. 14.5 sacks, 30.5 TFL.
5. Jordy Nelson, Sr., WR, Kansas State — All over. 99 rec, 2 TD pass, 2 PR TD.
6. Leodis McKelvin, Sr., CB, Troy — 3 PR TD and all over in the defensive backfield.
7. Darren McFadden, Jr., RB, Arkansas — 143 ypg and versatile, but has bad games in Ls.
8. Felix Jones, Jr., RB, Arkansas — 103 ypg and 9.1 ypc. Also averages 32.7 KR, with 2 TD.
9. Jordon Dizon, Sr., LB, Colorado — Tops in solo tackles with 93. Plus 11 TFL, FF, 2 PD.
10. Chris Long, Sr., DE, Virginia — Faces lots of blocks but still has 12 sacks, 7 PD.

Top 25 Rankings -- Nov. 12, 2007

Well, it's getting to that time of year where talk about college football needing a playoff cranks up, even though I'm betting the several of the eight teams still in it will take an L between know and the start of bowl season. I've always like college football for the way it is, when a few rivalry games are almost equivalent to championships (see the smile on my face for Wisconin's win over Michigan in this train wreck season.

I put a poll on the sidebar to see how you feel about it.

My ballot this week is definitely different from the AP, USA Today and BCS polls.

I put Oregon on top of LSU because I think LSU lets too many inferior teams hang around. I want to put Ohio State ahead of LSU (setting up what I think would be a match-up of the nation's best offense vs. best defense) but LSU has more quality wins than the Buckeyes.

Oh, that's right. They play in the "weak" Big Ten with 10 of 11 teams bowl eligible.

I am apparently the only one who puts any stock Ohio State. Both other polls have them at #7. I'm still looking for anyone to make a strong arguments about why they should be behind West Virginia.

I have the Big 12 teams at 4-5-6, but I'm not that worried about the order of those three that much because they will all go head-to-head-to-head the next few weeks. You want playoffs, it's about to start in the Big 12.

Not that any of these teams have a margin for error, but I feel like Kansas has the least with no quality wins. And even though they take on a 3-8 Iowa State team at home, this game has all the markings of a trap-door a la Rutgers fiasco vs. Cincy last year.

The Cyclones aren't scared. "They're beatable."

Arizona State and West Virginia are the two other teams with an outside shot at the title game, but both need help, in addition to running the table.

In honor of how ridiculous it was when writers were voting for App. State in the Top 25 earlier this year, I am considering doing so for the Northern Iowa Panthers. They are actually #35 in the Sagarin ratings, and if ISU (who UNI beat) were to top Kansas the Panthers would sail upward.

These were my thoughts about Randy Shannon too. How many people do you think stuck around to the end of the last Orange Bowl game with the Miami Hurricanes going down 48-0 to Virginia? Have a look. Pathetic. This year is shaping up to be worse than 1997.

Team (W-L, last week)
1. Oregon (8-1, 2). Can raise profile in Thursday game against Arizona, who hates them.
2. LSU (9-1, 3). Tops in the nation, but can they win me over. Not before SEC Title game.
3. Ohio State (10-1, 1). It's still Michigan week. And they own Carr.
4. Oklahoma (9-1, 6). No scoreboard watching here, Stoops says. Texas Tech looks to kill giant.
5. Missouri (9-1, 7). Next is reeling Kansas State. Pinkel won't run up score.
6. Kansas (10-0, 8). Dodd says Kansas is #1. I guess Hawaii is #2.
7. Arizona State (9-1, 4). Escaped a banged-up UCLA team.
8. West Virginia (8-1, 5). Louisville came way too close.
9. Georgia (8-2, 10). Have chance to lock up parity-plagued SEC East.
10. USC (8-2, 11). Could still wind up in the Rose Bowl, but hope for more.
11. Virginia Tech (8-2, 13). Miami gives them chance to pound Fla. team for 2nd straight week.
12. Florida (7-3, 17). Having a good season for what they lost.
13. Clemson (8-2, 15). Looking as good as anybody right now.
14. Boston College (8-2, 9). Finally, a Boston team is losing.
15. Auburn (7-4, 12). Look to take advantage of off week.
16. Michigan (8-3,16). Henne and Hart didn't play. Bad coaching or good excuse?
17. Illinois (8-3, 21). About three plays from playing for national championship.
18. Penn State (8-3, 18). Bowl picture murky, but shouldn't look past hot Spartans.
19. Cincinnati (8-2, NR). Hiccup against Pitt really costing them.
20. Virginia (8-2, NR). Embarrassed Miami, who should ask for 2nd last Orange Bowl game.
21. Tennessee (7-3, 22). Tough to beat at home.
22. Texas (9-2, 24). I'm looking for a way to drop them out, like winning via ref.
23. Hawaii (9-0, 25). Came out hot, but wound up with another mediocre, close win.
24. Wisconsin (8-3, NR). Where was that team all year. Will finish 5th in Big Ten w/o help.
25. California (6-4, 19). Should still finish 8-4.

My absence

I hope my blogs' few readers didn't abandon me for good after I took a week off. I had a horribly busy work week, and then I was off to Wisconsin to watch the Badgers whup Michigan (don't give me those backup excuses Wolverines fans, did you really want to finish 8-4?). Then I was up at 3:15 a.m. so I could fly back to watch the Redskins collapse against the Eagles at FedEx today.

I spent a lot of time on the plane working on things to cover write about this week, including how the college bowls are lining up. So I'm back and I'm here to stay.

Monday I will do a bigger Top 25 breakdown, but as you can see on the sidebar I already posted my vote. I'm also going to do a longer breakdown on the stretch of the Heisman race, although I feel like it is Dennis Dixon's to lose at this point.

Be back here posting in a few hours......

--Nate Sandstrom

Lockdown Saturday

Alright, this is the day I've been waiting for since last year. Wisconsin at Ohio State.

Now, as I dreamed of this day, I was expecting Wisconsin to be undefeated not the Buckeyes. But if the Badgers win today and against Michigan next week, I would still rate 2007 a quality season.

Will they do that? Their defense will decide. I think if they can finish +2 in the turnover ratio they can win. The defense had their first good game against a team with a good offense against Indiana last week.

I think the first quarter will be key. The defense needs to come up with stops the first two drives and build confidence.

The Badgers have won three straight in Columbus. I don't know if anyone has ever won four in a row in the Horseshoe. But I'm a homer, and this week's upset special is Wisconsin (+550/+16) at Ohio State, winning 16-14.

Also at noon, Northwestern looks to get to bowl eligibility at home against Iowa. Northwestern has done well in this series in recent years, and I like that trend to continue against an injury-riddled Iowa team. Northwestern (-1) wins this one 24-10.


Texas heads to Oklahoma State, who, since getting embarrassed at Troy, has been playing great. I've consistently called Texas the most overrated team in the country, and I think they get exposed in Stillwater today. Oklahoma State (+3) pounds the 'horns 37-17.

The South Florida Bulls' season is on the line. They've gone from #2 in the country to a team with a two game losing streak. Today they get another team that's fallen from grace in Cincinnati, who had an embarrassing loss to Pitt. I think the Bulls were victimized by a hangover effect, but their defense will be too much for the Bearcats' O-line. South Florida (-5) wins it 28-14.

--NS

Nate's NFL Power Rankings: Post-Week 8

The Colts-Pats game is reminiscent of a #1 vs. #2 regular season college football match-up. I've strategically avoided ESPN much of this week, so I am not so sick of the hype that I don't want to watch the game.

I'm starting to notice I'm not moving teams that much. I guess the biggest question is whether I would move the Steelers ahead of the loser of Colts-Pats, and the answer is not likely.

1. New England (8-0,1). What 'skins D? Another week, another blowout.
2. Indianapolis (7-0,2). Can they afford to start slow against the Pats?
3. Pittsburgh (5-2,3). Total lip service. They are not playing '06 Ravens.
4. Dallas (6-1,4). Pats-Colts give Dallas-Philly least coverage in years. T.O.?
5. Green Bay (6-1,5). Seem like team of destiny.
6. San Diego (4-3,6). Outscored opponents 104-27 in last three.
7. N.Y. Giants (6-2,7). Players council? What is this, Survivor?
8. Tennessee (5-2,8). Margin doesn't matter much in NFL.
9. Seattle (4-3,10). Seeking to shake up run game.
10. Jacksonville (5-2,15). Won battle for best in Fla.
11. Tampa Bay (4-4,9). Turnovers killed them against Jags.
12. Carolina (4-3,12). Indy blows out a lot of teams. They may be back to Carr.
13. Washington (4-3,13). New England blows out a lot of teams.
14. Baltimore (4-3,14). Still looking for first division win (0-2).
15. Detroit (5-2,16). Is Kitna the new Nostradamus?
16. Denver (3-4,11). Falling out of playoff picture.
17. Cleveland (4-3,19). Win against Seattle and they move up big.
18. Arizona (3-4,17). Trying to snap two-game skid.
19. Buffalo (3-4,18). Lee Evans gets in the end zone!
20. Kansas City (4-3,21). Who thought they'd start November in first?
21. Chicago (3-5,22). They've got to get better right.
22. Cincinnati (2-5,23). Is there honor in being NFL's best 2-5 team?
23. Philadelphia (3-4,27). Wins in next two (Dallas/Washington) can get them back.
24. New Orleans (3-4,26). Can move into first place tie this week.
25. Oakland (2-4,25). Another blown half time lead.
26. Minnesota (2-5,24). Now the Brooks Bollinger show.
27. Houston (3-5,20). I don't think David Carr was the problem.
28. San Francisco (2-5,28). Again, has a team that started 2-0 finished 2-14?
29. N.Y. Jets (1-7,29). Man-genius spent too much time on Sopranos.
30. Atlanta (1-6,30). Found way not to lose bye week.
31. Miami (0-8,31). Have mastered losing games by three points.
32. St. Louis (0-8,32). At least Steven Jackson is back. Oooooh. Yikes.

High School Weekend -- November 2

Two more weeks to the start of the football playoffs, and there are some games with major seeding implications this afternoon in the city. Both could wind up being playoff previews.

A link to the playoff standings.

However, perhaps the best team in the state, Friendly (PG), may be on the outside looking in because of an ineligible player.

I keep looking for a chance to sneak away and check out Tavon Austin, but I'll be in the capital covering tax bill hearings tomorrow.

For more on Digital Harbor (down the road from my house) see the Sun's Milton Kent's article here.


Here are capsules from the Sun (I inserted standings, top four qualify).

Digital Harbor (#2 1A South)
@ No. 2 Dunbar (#1 1A South)
When // Friday, 2:30 p.m.

Outlook // This game matches the Baltimore City League leaders in the Division II Rams (7-1) and the Division I Poets (8-0). Tavon Austin and Dunbar have outscored city opponents 36.6 to 8.0 per game, including a 44-34 victory over Poly (7-1), which dealt Digital its only loss, 23-6. The Poets are averaging 40 points compared with 8.8 by their foes, with Austin recording 23 touchdowns and 1,477 rushing yards. Jeron Lewis, who has 12 sacks, leads the Rams defense, which hopes to slow Austin. Trae Higgins and Aaron Hargraves look to run the ball against the Poets' defense, led by linebacker Keon Redhead. Four-year-old Digital has outscored its city foes, 24 points to 8.6 and would love to avenge last year's 36-0 loss in its first meeting with Dunbar.

Poly (#2 2A North)
@ No. 7 Edmondson (#3 2A North)
When // Friday, 2:30 p.m.

Outlook // This game is crucial to the Class 2A North region qualifiers. City (6-2) holds a slim lead over Edmondson (6-2) for fourth place and the final playoff berth. The visiting Engineers (7-1), who are second in the region behind Eastern Tech (8-0), can help City, which hosts Mervo (5-3), and hurt the Red Storm. Next week in the last games of the regular season, City visits Poly and Edmondson will travel to Lake Clifton (1-7). The game showcases two of Baltimore's top running backs in Poly's Lee Reynolds and Edmondson's Terence Wilson.

In Howard County, there are not really any headline games, although the River Hill-Howard battle next weekend will certainly draw interest. Glenelg (#5 1A South) needs to stop Hammond if they want to qualify for the playoffs. However, it's an uphill battle, and based on the numbers they may be out even if they run the table.


Here's TronBlaster's HoCo take this week: (team, W-L, PF-PA)
The elite
1. River Hill 8-0 343-14 Intriguing match-ups with the second best D
in the league this week, and the second best offense (Howard) next week
(Last week: beat Marriotts Ridge 49-6; This week: Reservoir at)
+2. (3.) Howard 7-1 232-146 OK, get excited. They're playoff bound and
if not for a week 3 loss at Atholton, they'd be 8-0 (beat Wilde Lake
21-14; at Long Reach)
-3. (2.) Wilde Lake 6-2 213-96 A few costly turnovers led to the
Howard loss, these two could have a great playoff battle (lost to
Howard 14-21; Oakland Mills at)

The good
4. Marriotts Ridge 5-3 174-210 Hovet is squeezing every win possible
out of this team (lost to River Hill 6-49; Centennial at)
5. Atholton 5-3 132-114 One-trick offense is keeping them from being
elite (beat Oakland Mills 26-20; at Mt. Hebron)
6. Reservoir 4-4 145-96 They need their incredible defense to score
more, like the 2000 Ravens did (beat Centennial 13-8; at River Hill)

The respectable
7. Glenelg 4-4 113-179 Four game winning streak to get back to .500,
good chance to win out (beat Mt. Hebron 21-14; Hammond at)
+8. (9.) Oakland Mills 2-6 172-264 Good show taking Atholton to double
overtime, two near-misses could have had them 4-4 (lost to Atholton
20-26 (2OT); at Wilde Lake)

Just go out there and have fun kids
-9 (8.) Long Reach 3-5 113-188 Puzzling loss to Hammond has to cost
them, I don't know what to make of this team (lost to Hammond 19-32;
Howard at)
+10. (11.) Hammond 2-6 186-253 Offense starting to come around, if only
they could stop someone (beat Long Reach 32-19; at Glenelg)
-11. (10.) Centennial 2-6 98-207 Only team in the league that hasn't
scored 100 points yet (lost to Reservoir 8-13; at Marriotts Ridge)
12. Mt. Hebron 0-8 115-269 Starting to play better, but 0-10 season
is inevitable with A and WL ahead (lost to Glenelg 14-21; Atholton at)

--NS/TB

Heisman Watch, Post-Week 9

Alright, it's 1:30 a.m. and I'm almost caught up.

Heisman Pundit keeps Tebow on top and has Matt Ryan #2 and Dixon #3.

ESPN's poll has Ryan #1, Dixon #2 and Tebow #3.

It seems the race is finally taking shape as we head into November.

NO Matt Ryan on my list. Despite his comeback at VT he completed less than 50% of his passes in that game and is not in the NCAA's top 50 rated passers. He is getting purely good QB on good team votes.

No player links in this section today because I've got to go to bed.
(last week)
1. Dennis Dixon, QB, Oregon. (1) No jinx last week. Leader of top offense.
2. Jonathan Stewart, RB, Oregon. (4) Came up big against USC D.
3. Tim Tebow, QB, Florida. (2) Still the nation's #1 rated passed passer.
4. Matt Forte, RB, Tulane. (-) 5 200-yd games in last 6. 74 against LSU.
5. Jordy Nelson, WR, Kansas St. (-) 82 yards+ in every game. Plays big in big games.

--Nate Sandstrom

Top 25 Rankings, Post-Week 9

I'm going to brief here, because I'm so late on posting these.

1. Ohio State (9-0,1). Here's OSU's playoff: Wisc, Ill, and Michigan in final three.
2. Boston College (8-0,2). Didn't score for 58 minutes and still won.
3. LSU (7-1,3). 'Bama is last major test before SEC Championship.
4. Arizona State (8-0,6). Carpenter can't throw, but will play, says Erickson.
5. Oregon (7-1,4). Top 5 showdown puts Ducks in spotlight second straight week.
6. West Virginia (7-1,5). Blowout win at Rutgers getting 'Neers back in BCS talk.
7. Oklahoma (7-1,7). Need to find early season form.
8. Missouri (7-1,9). Maintaining low profile.
9. Kansas (8-0,15). Taking advantage of teams they should.
10. Georgia (6-2,17). What a difference a (bye week) year makes vs. Gators.
11. USC (6-2,12). Lost, but so did everyone else in this range.
12. Auburn (6-3,14). Early season woes a distant memory.
13. Virginia Tech (6-2,13). They got Flutied.
14. Michigan (7-2,18). App. State now has as many losses.
15. South Florida (6-2,10). Need to show they can respond to a loss.
16. South Carolina (6-3,16). Breakthrough year slipping away.
17. Florida (5-3,8). Not winning the close ones they did last year.
18. Penn State (6-3, 19). Ohio State blows out the white out.
19. Connecticut (7-1,NR). Who knew blown call against Temple could wind up mattering.
20. California (5-3, 20). Three weeks, three losses. Where is th D?
21. Hawaii (8-0,22). Waiting for Boise match-up to move this team up.
22. Wisconsin (7-2,22). This 16-point dog has won its last three in Columbus.
23. Alabama (6-2,25). Saban's first crack at old team.
24. Wake Forest (6-2,NR). That's six straight.
25. Clemson (6-2,NR). Davis, Spiller right ship in College Park.

Maybe Ryan Leaf wants a job too.....

(St. Paul) Pioneer Press reporter does a good job summing this up in his lede:

The Vikings have reached the nadir of their search for a productive and reliable quarterback. Jeff George, who hasn't thrown a pass in an NFL game since 2001, is confident he can upgrade the team's 30th-ranked pass offense.

The rest of the article is here.

Apparently the 39-year-old, ex-Colt, ex-Raider, ex-Viking, ex-Redskin, ex-Bear and others has looked around the league and thinks he could help a team, particularly the Vikings.

This seems to build a case for what Mark (not to be seen at SoBo lately) told me last week — there are almost no good QBs left in the league.

I don't think now is any different than from year's past at that position, but if Jeff George catches on somewhere, I may be turned around.


I'll never get over the Redskins for letting Brad Johnson go for George. Here's how that worked out.

--Nate Sandstrom

Lockdown-Part II

My picks have gotten so bad the last few weeks, I should stop embarrassing myself. Here's the crap I'm picking today.
Maryland (+3)
Idaho (+17.5)
Denver (-3)
Upset Special: Northwestern (+390)

--NS

Lockdown-Part I

Fresno State (+3) vs. Boise State
It's Friday football in Fresno tonight, and the home Bulldogs are underdogs. And why not? According to covers they are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 against a team with a winning record.

Boise State is certainly that. They're 6-1 this year and have won 22 of 23 overall since the school's last trip to Fresno, a 27-7 loss in 2005.

But tonight they will again be without RB Ian Johnson. The Broncos are also working on their own bad trend 0-2 ATS on the road this year.

I think it continues tonight.

Fresno State 37 Boise State 31

--NS

Who is the NFL's MVP so far?

So has Tom Brady resurrected Randy Moss's career? Or is it Moss that has brought Brady to the next level?

I say it's a bit of both, but more the latter than the former.

The catches Moss was making against Miami is adding to a sick highlight reel he has assembled this season (to go with 105 ypg and 10 TDs). If the season were over today, I'd give him my MVP.

I have a feeling that Brady would win, and don't get me wrong I'd have him #2. But I don't think he'd have nearly the same numbers (73.8%, 304 ypg 27/2!, 137.9 rating).

Randy's old team, the Vikings, may have a guy who will win multiple MVPs in Adrian Peterson (112 rush ypg, 6.2 ypc, 5TD rush, 1TD rec, 28.5 KR). He probably means the most to his team, but had a key drop and fumble against Dallas. He gets my third place vote.

Don't look now, but LT is creeping back in the race at #4. (He's up to 88 rush ypg and 6 TDs. He's also caught and passed for a TD.) He's got a great match-up this week against Houston to pile on the stats, but needs to do it against good defenses as well.

Devin Hester is not really an offensive player, but I have him at #5. He's second in the league in punt return average and has taken two to the house. He also brought back a kick, scored a game-tying TD against the Vikes and had a good catch in the comeback against the Eagles.

What about on defense? Most people don't care, but I won't let you go unnoticed, dominant linebackers of this league.

I've had NFL leading tackle Barrett Ruud #1 from wire to wire, although he doesn't look great against Calvin Johnson here:



However, Ruud has 66 tackles, a pick, three forced fumbles and two recovered. That's an MVP stat line.

#2 is the jersey I put on most Sunday's, Sean Taylor. Taylor leads the league in INTs and passes broken up with 5 and 14. He also has 24 tackles and he makes them count.

One from the U.:



Rounding out my top five are Osi Umenyiora (8 sacks, 3 FF, 2 FR, 1TD), DeMarcus Ware (34 tackles, 5.5 sacks) and another 'Cane, Ed Reed (4 INT, PR TD).

A quick break for — golf?

I have to give a shot out to my old roommate, current poker rival and good buddy Paul Bangle.



That's him not excited. But you won't see him so dour any time soon, as the coach of the Liberty Lions saw his team set the state 1A/2A tournament championship record with a 2-day 633, topping second place Glenelg by two strokes.

The Baltimore Sun covers it here. Here's the Examiner story. The Carroll County Times has their story here.

Congrats Coach!

--Nate Sandstrom

Nate's NFL Power Ratings-Week 8

The top six hold, but last week's seven and eight, Jacksonville and Baltimore, respectively, plummet.

The Colts are getting a lot of love for whipping Jacksonville, but I put much of it on Quinn Gray, who was not ready for NFL speed. Also, what was that 4th and 1 play that Del Rio ran just before the end of the first half? I can't stand when teams get fancy instead of just running inside.

Anyway, here's my role call this week:

1. New England (7-0,1). I've been betting this team every week and am now retired.
2. Indianapolis (6-0,2). Now travel on a short week in a look-ahead game.
3. Pittsburgh (4-2,3). I'm impressed they got back in the Denver game.
4. Dallas (6-1,4). Turnovers will burn Romo eventually. Now a bye.
5. Green Bay (5-1,5). Will week off get Favre back on track?
6. San Diego (3-3,6). Can beat Houston anywhere.
7. N.Y. Giants (5-2,12). London trip could be perfect excuse for 2007 collapse.
8. Tennessee (4-2,13). Please tell them football games last four quarters.
9. Tampa Bay (4-3,9). Hope they don't have to play on turf (0-3) in playoffs.
10. Seattle (4-3,11). Find the Rams cure what ails ya.
11. Denver (3-3,15). Need to remind city they have a football team.
12. Carolina (4-2,10). Winless at home this year, now Colts come to town.
13. Washington (4-2,14). This thread teaches history. It will not repeat.
14. Baltimore (4-3,8). Ray Lewis is crying and the losing begins. Hello again, 2005.
15. Jacksonville (4-2,7). Run the ball Del Rio. Especially with Quinn in.
16. Detroit (4-2,22). Consistent they're not.
17. Arizona (3-4,17). The Fugitive's favorite team. (Get it, one-armed man).
18. Buffalo (2-4,18). Finally win a close one.
19. Cleveland (3-3,20). Need to stay focused, not look past Rams.
20. Houston (3-4,16). I've been calling for Sage since 2003, in Washington, Miami...
21. Kansas City (4-3,22). Now,they're a playoff team. Will it last? Pun intended.
22. Chicago (3-4,19). A Bears QB wins a game!
23. Cincinnati (2-4,25). They were still down 13 to the Jets.
24. Minnesota (2-4,18). Tavaris presents a quandry.
25. Oakland (2-4,28). How do you lose 17 straight division games?
26. New Orleans (2-4,23). It's a winning streak, regardless.
27. Philadelphia (2-4,24). Speaking of 2005 last place finishes.
28. San Francisco (2-4,26). Has a team that started 2-0 finished 2-14?
29. N.Y. Jets (1-6,29). Please win so Greenberg will stop debating Brady-Manning.
30. Atlanta (1-6,30). Leftwhich era shortest era ever.
31. Miami (0-7,31). Think Saban saw this coming?
32. St. Louis (0-7,32). At least Steven Jackson is back.

--NS

Heisman Watch: Oct. 23

It seems like every week I slide someone into the top spot, they fall back. No one seems to want to win this thing.

QBs dominate the ESPN poll, with Tebow on top.

I'm not loving Matt Ryan like everyone else, but I'll jump on the bandwagon if he can beat Va. Tech on Thursday (don't expect that to happen).

Heisman Pundit calls this a four-man race and also has Tebow on top.

I'm going to buck the trend and give my top vote to Ducks QB Dennis Dixon. As you can see from past posts on Heisman watch, this almost guarantees Oregon will lose to USC.

This week's top five:
1. Dennis Dixon,QB,Oregon. (NR) Pretty much 100 yards rushing and 200 yards passing at rival Washington. Leads what is probably the nation's best offense. 165.8 passer rating, 69.3% and 17/3. Rushes for 59.4 ypg and 7 TDs.
2. Tim Tebow,QB,Florida. (2) Five TDs in Kentucky holds off Wildcats' bid for back-to-back upsets. Haspassed for 66.1%, 17/3 and 177.5 rating. Oh yeah, and rushed for 82.5 per and 10TDs.
3. Chase Daniel,QB,Missouri. (NR) Maybe not the same duel threat as Dixon and Tebow, but led a shredding of Texas Tech last weekend. Daniel still rushes for 30 per and 3 TDs and has passed for 69.2, 17/7 and a 150.1 rating.
4. Jonathan Stewart,RB,Oregon. (NR) Pat White and Steve Slaton got the preseason hype, but Dixon/Stewart are leading the top backfield. Stewart shredded the Huskies defense for 257 on Saturday. He now averages 134.3 ypg and 7.17 ypc! He also returns kicks to the tune of 29.8 per.
5. Felix Jones,RB,Arkansas. (NR) Felix has no chance to win, but I wanted to get him in the discussion at least one week. D-Mc gets all the pub, but his backfield mate has put up the scarier numbers. 110.6 ypg, 9.56 ypc and 7TDs in part-time duty. He also has returned two kicks for touchdowns and averages 31.6 per return.


Bonus sleepers:
I love KSU WR Jordy Nelson, but he needs to score more on offense. if Troy upsets Arkansas and runs the table, DB/return man Leondis McKelvin should get a look. No defensive players ever win, but what about USF DL George Selvie, has 11.5 sacks and 21.5 TFLs.

--NS

Top 25 Rankings: Oct. 22, 2007

Oh, number two spot. I don't really want to put BC here; I think they will be the fourth straight #2 team to go down when they head to Blacksburg.

But I'll give it to the Eagles, as the computers point to them as #1.

I'm not one of those people who scoffs at the idea of computers evaluating teams. Unlike people, computers don't have biases that, say, excuse a loss by USC to Stanford but not by South Florida at Rutgers.

Don't worry, the computers are hating on USC. In the new BCS rankings, it looks like Oklahoma is also getting help from the polls. The computers have them 14. I dropped them three spots after their narrow win in Ames.

I've got four new teams in the rankings this week. UCLA is probably the most controversial because they can't win non-conference games, but they're in the Pac-10 driver's seat after holding on against Cal.

Here's my ballot:

1. Ohio State (8-0,1). Need to avoid turnovers at Penn St. Saturday night.
2. Boston College (7-0,3). Can a Boston team finally lose? Makes me puke.
3. LSU (7-1,5). Lucky as Sh*t University. That's how Les planned it.
4. Oregon (6-1,8). The nation's best offense? USC game is next bench mark.
5. West Virginia (6-1,10). Right back in the BCS hunt with blowout of MSU.
6. Arizona St.(7-0,13). Moves up as others fall. Cal is biggest test.
7. Oklahoma (7-1,4). Apparently the Sooners are not morning people.
8. Florida (5-2,11). Lots of credit from me for win at Kentucky.
9. Missouri (6-1,15). First team to shutdown Michael Crabtree.
10. South Florida (6-1,2). Need to move on, or UConn will make it two straight Ls.
11. Kentucky (6-2,9). Still in East's wild race.
12. USC (6-1,12). Win at Oregon will turn season around.
13. Virginia Tech (6-1,14). A loss to B.C. puts VT squarely as a pretender.
14. Auburn (5-3,19). Move up with close loss at LSU. Not far from 8-0, or 2-6.
15. Kansas (7-0,18). Did what Oklahoma couldn't, won at Colorado.
16. South Carolina (6-2,6). Were looking ahead to other team from Tennessee.
17. Georgia (5-2,17). Were lucky to beat Vandy themselves.
18. Michigan (6-2,20). Wish non-conference was the same as NFL preseason.
19. Penn State (6-2,21). Look to repeat 2005. Is OSU ready for white out?
20. California (5-2,7). So close to 7-0. Now just hope to play on New Year's.
21. Rutgers (5-2,NR). Looking to knock out Top 5 team for second straight week.
22. Hawaii (7-0,25). Where will they get a signature win?
23. Virginia (7-1,NR). How do they keep winning the close ones?
24. UCLA (5-2,NR). Best team that lost to Utah 44-6.
25. Alabama (6-2,NR). May be LSU's last road block in the regular season.

Post-weekend short post

I'm late for work, but I'm still can't believe how Illinois gave the game away to Michigan on Saturday night. On Sunday, the Redskins did their best to lose the 13th game they led at halftime since 2004, but LaRon Landry saved the day. And they were lucky.

Why I'm not a gambler: As you see from the post below, I decided I didn't like the spreads in the NFL this week. So of course I went 11-2 (missed Min +9.5, Was -9). I would've at least pulled a 2-1 on lockdown if Maryland hadn't given up a 90-yard drive at the end of the 4th, but hey, I should've known better to pick against UVa., which now wins every game.

--NS

Lockdown-Weekend of Oct. 20

I really should've posted this Thursday, because I had Rutgers all the way. Lots of big lines in the NFL this weekend, I'm sticking with college.

Oklahoma (-30) at Iowa State
Texas whipped the Cyclones 56-3 last week, what do you think Oklahoma is going to do? We know Iowa State lacks talent, but even the talent they have seems to be underachieving.

The Sooners have been struggling through the Big 12 schedule, so you hate to give 30 on the road. But ISU is sure to give Bradford and crew the chance to post a score like they did in September.

Oklahoma 65 Iowa State 6

Miami (+5) at Florida State
How the mighty have fallen. A game that once was a major factor in deciding the national champion is only drawing the interest of die hards.

These games have been close the last few years, but not necessarily great to watch. Here's the last few:

Away Home
09/04/2006 FSU 13 MIAMI 10
09/05/2005 MIAMI 7 FSU 10
09/10/2004 FSU 10 MIAMI 16
01/01/2004 FSU 14 MIAMI 16

I'd expect another low-scoring match-up. Here's the game-turner:

In Miami's three losses, they've been outrushed by 64, 74 and 97 yards. Who from Florida State is going to expose that weakness in Miami.

Unless Miami finishes far behind in turnovers, I think they'll do enough on D to manage a win here.

Miami 16 Florida St. 6

Maryland (-4) vs. Virginia
Virginia's been winning, but you can only live on the edge so long. UVA RB Pearman is out and it looks like Maryland LB Erin Henderson will be back.

Turner has done the job as the backup, and I think the sold out crowd will be fired up. The Terps played better than the score in their last nationally televised night game, against WVU, and will build on that for this ESPN night game.

Maryland 27 Virginia 13

Upset Special: Louisiana Tech (+15/+550) vs. Boise State
The Broncos have only been away from their blue track once this year, and it was a two-touchdown loss at Washington.

Now to fly across the country after a 4-OT Sunday night game. Not good.

La. Tech has played two one-point games at home, falling to Hawaii and beating New Mexico State.

If they can stop Boise from hitting big plays, I think they can pull a shocker.

Louisiana Tech 51 Boise State 46

--NS

Nate's NFL Power Rankings - Pre-Week 7

Yeah, these are late. Extra links to make up for it.

1. New England (6-0,1). Trying to invent time machine to take on '72 Dolphins.
2. Indianapolis (5-0,2). Will run defense stop the Jags this year?
3. Pittsburgh. (4-1,3). Used off-week to pay parking tickets.
4. Dallas (5-1,4). If they're the best in NFC, why have a Super Bowl?
5. Green Bay (5-1,5). If Taylor had better hands, Favre would've thrown 5 Ints.
6. San Diego (3-3,9). Norv Turner is awesome all of a sudden.
7. Jacksonville (4-1,10). If they can beat Colts, I will forgive week one loss.
8. Baltimore (4-2,8). Bad wins against bad teams keep them stagnant.
9. Tampa Bay (4-2,11). Does Michael Bennett still run 4.13? (Scroll down).
10. Carolina (4-2,18). Can't anyone win with Steve Smith? Oh, except David Carr.
11. Seattle (3-3,7). Rams could help get offense back on right track.
12. N.Y. Giants (4-2,16). They were 6-2 last year.
13. Tennessee (3-2,6). Should just change name to Vince Youngs.
14. Washington (3-2,15). Need lots of doctors on hand this week.
15. Denver. (2-3,17). Javon Walker adds injury to insulting offense.
16. Houston (3-3,21). Put in Sage! 123 rating.
17. Arizona (3-3,13). How long will they hold first?
18. Minnesota (2-3,29). Adrian Peterson is definitely awesome.
19. Chicago (2-4,12). Bears need to clone Hester.
20. Cleveland (3-3,24). Where did this offense come from?
21. Kansas City (3-3,22). Didn't Priest see what happened to Trent Green?
22. Detroit (3-2,20). Bucs haven't won on Turf this year.
23. New Orleans (1-4,27). Some say Seattle was no fluke.
24. Philadelphia (2-3,19). Still only beat Jets by 7.
25. Cincinnati (1-4,14). Hey, they beat the Ravens.
26. San Francisco (2-3,25). Anyone still think this is a sleeper team?
27. Buffalo (1-4,26). Eh, who doesn't want to move to Canada, eh? These guys.
28. Oakland (2-3,23). I don't know what to think of this team.
29. N.Y. Jets (1-4,28). At least they beat Miami.
30. Atlanta (1-5,30) Think Petrino wants to draft Brian Brohm? I do.
31. Miami (0-6,31). Think the Pats forgot this game?
32. St. Louis (0-6,32). Need to get Dolphins on schedule.

High School Football weekend

I'm going to have to apologize for this post, but I'm using an old version of Safari that makes it hard to embded links, so you'll have to cut and paste until I get home tonight.

High school football playoff talk is in the air, as the Sun's Milton Kent blogs here: http://weblogs.baltimoresun.com/sports/highschool/varsityletters/2007/10/football_playoffs_at_a_glance.html.

Here's a link to the points standings: http://www.mpssaa.org/fallsports/football/release.asp?release_id=52

A big matchup in Baltimore tonight, as a pair of 6-0 teams face off. Dunbar, ranked #3 by the Sun is at Poly. Half of Poly's wins are against winless teams, so Dunbar, which has outscored opponents 264-36, will be a test.

Kickoff is at 7 p.m. if you want to go. Notable players include Poly RB Lee Reynolds and Dunbar LB Keon Redhead and Kenyon Kinard, the Sun reports.

In Howard County, Mariotts Ridge's upset win over Atholton last weekend takes the luster of their matchup with River Hill this weekend. But it will still be a running back showdown with River Hill RB's Malik Redd, Michael Campanaro and Zach Martin against Atholton's Kelechi Odocha.

Here's Tron's breakdown:

That Atholton loss is forcing me to make some major shake ups in the power rankings, based on gut feelings and not just head to head contests. Hold on to your hats...

TronBlaster's Howard County Power Rankings (Week 7 edition)
(last week) team, record, PF-PA;
The elite
1. River Hill, 6-0, 253-8; 5th shut out in six games, shouldn't have trouble with a suddenly flawed Atholton. (Last week: beat Long Reach 44-0; This week: Atholton at)
2. Wilde Lake, 5-1, 165-69; Only team with as diverse a running attack as River Hill (beat Reservoir 25-8; at Long Reach)
The good
3. Atholton, 4-2, 106-53; Can't drop them out of third, but they're no longer elite. (lost to Marriotts Ridge 7-12; at River Hill)
4. Howard, 5-1, 164-104; Their week five win over Marriotts Ridge now looks even more impressive (beat Hammond 35-21; at Mt. Hebron)
+5. (9) Marriotts Ridge, 4-2, 160-154; With a formidable defense emerging against Atholton, they're now a complete team (beat Atholton 12-7; at Reservoir)
-6. (5) Reservoir, 3-3, 125-80; Being shut out by Atholton in week 5 keeps them squarely behind MR (lost to Wilde Lake 8-25; Marriotts Ridge at)
The respectable
-7. (6) Glenelg, 2-4, 62-149; Could go 6-4 after 0-4 start (beat Centennial 31-16; at Oakland Mills)
-8. (7) Long Reach, 3-3, 88-122; Dominated OM in week two (lost to River Hill 0-44; Wilde Lake at)
+9. (10) Oakland Mills, 2-4, 136-208; First two-game winning streak since like 2001 or something, still leaking too many points (beat Mt. Hebron 22-14; Glenelg at)

Just go out there and have fun kids
+10. (11) Hammond, 1-5, 118-196; Should use speed to beat a banged up
Centennial (lost to Howard 21-35; at Centennial)
-11. (8) Centennial, 1-5, 51-158; They're too banged up and inexperienced (lost to Glenelg 16-31; Hammond at)
12. Mt. Hebron, 0-6, 73-200; They're playing for the number one draft pick (lost to Oakland Mills 14-22; Howard at)

--NS/TB

Mark's Week 7 Power Rankings

1. Patriots (1) - Did anyone else catch Belichick fervently drawing plays for the D on the sidelines? That's why this team is as good as they are.
32a. Colts (2) - I predict a hard game at Jacksonville this Monday.
32b. Steelers (3) - Best thing this team has going for them is that they aren't getting too much hype
32c. Jaguars (5) - I'm almost ready to tip my king to Nate. This team is good.
32d. Cowboys (4) - Wade Phillips may have dug his own grave with the 5-0 start
32e. Chargers (7) - This time next week the Chargers could be getting ready to face a Texans team with a better record.
32f. Ravens (10) - The D Line is alive and well. But now C Mac is hurt. Does it ever stop?
32g. Bucs (13) - Gruden's job looks safe for now
32h. Redskins (9) - Campbell is mmmm mmmm good. (thanks, CC)
32i. Packers (8) - Yes, I realize I flipped the Skins/Packers after Packers won. You got a problem with it? Get your own blog.
32j. Giants (16) - They're hot now. Give it four weeks and there will be fresh turmoil and a two to three game losing streak
32k. Titans (6) - Is this team anything without V. Young? I sincerely doubt it.
32l. Browns (14) - This team is capable of dropping touchdowns in the blink of an eye. It will be interesting to see them trying to crowbar Quinn into the starter's spot next year.
32m. Chiefs (25) - Despite the wins, I'm still campaigning for Croyle
32n. Texans (17) - This week, Texans fans will be happy for Young not to play in Houston
32o. Bear (11) - If only they could kick to themselves...
32p. Panthers (21) - How many people can say they were alive when Kennedy was shot AND threw a TD to Steve Smith?
32q. Cardinals (12) - Matt Hasselbeck is to Peyton Manning as Tim Hasselbeck is to Eli's dog
32r. Vikings (27) - Uh, yeah, I was dead wrong last week. Marshawn who?
32s. Raiders (22) - The defense is giving up 357 yards a game and 25 points. I thought that was supposed to be their strength
32t. Bills (24) - Hello, Taco Bell. Would you like fries with that?
32u. Seahawks (15) - Things are getting so bad here, the cameras are attempting suicide.
32v. Bengals (18) - This team might be getting desperate enough to scrap the "housecleaning" plan and trade for Pacman Jones
32w. Eagles (20) - One rule: don't kick to Hester
32x. Lions (19) - Where's Calvin Johnson
32y. Broncos (29) - Offense is getting 357 yards a game and only 15 points. Get in the end zone.
32z. Jets (23) - The Jets were just fined $100K for that uniform
32aa. Falcons (26) - The Leftwich era begins.
32ab. Saints (32) - Definitely the best of the worst
32ac. Dolphins (30) - 12 points a game. Pathetic.
32ad. Niners (28) - What happened to Vernon Davis?
32ae. Rams (31) - Atrocious.

A blast from the past

While I've spent the last two days covering debates around affordable housing and health care, I've missed out on important things, like going over and over how the Redskins lost on Sunday.

Well, the clock just hit Wednesday so I guess I have to look ahead to Arizona. Washington opened as a 6-point favorite and the line has already moved to 8 or 9 along the strip.

Guess thirds-string QB Tim Rattay isn't striking fear in the hearts of America's football gamblers. And hey 'skins fans? Guess who will back in town to back-up Rattay? It appears the Cards are clearing a roster spot to sign Tim Hasselbeck.

You may remember him from such Steve Spurrier-era disasters as a 27-0 loss to Dallas in which he finished with a passer rating of 0.0 and a 31-7 home loss to the Eagles.

Speaking of 2003, like this year, the Redskins started 3-1. Then they lost a close road game (at Philly 27-25 after they failed to convert a two-point conversion) before the season unraveled and they finished 5-11.

Not that I expect them follow that pattern this year, but I'm a little worried about the state of the offensive line, and in turn, what that does to the rest of the offense. They are not running the ball like they did last year, particularly in the second half of games.

Team officials expect the line to be in dire straits again this weekend, Jason La Canforna writes in Tuesday's Post. Expect updates later this week.

--Nate Sandstrom

Heisman Watch

Only one player who was in my Top 5 last week played for a winning team, so I have another shake-up this week. Honestly, this has to be one of the most wide open races I can recall in recent years. I moved Michael Crabtree to the top of my ballot on numbers, but I don't know if he has a great chance. He's a freshman and plays for a team that has always scored points, meaning the credit goes to Coach Leach's system.
(Last week's rank)
1. Micahel Crabtree, WR, Texas Tech (3). Sick raw numbers. In seven games he's caught 78 passes for 1,244 yards and 17 TDs. By the way, this is his first year playing receiver.
2. Tim Tebow, QB, Florida (NR). He's a media favorite and gets the chance to play in a lot of high-profile games. So far he's posted great numbers, completing 65.5 percent of his passes with 13/3 for a 173.1 passer rating. He's also rushed for 500 yards and 9 TDs.
3. Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Illnois (2). Slowed by Iowa D but got just 15 carries in loss. Still has posted 839 rushing yards for a 6.5 avg. and 10 TD.
4. Jordy Nelson, WR, Kansas State (NR). Mr. Everything for upstart K-State. 56 catches for 727 yards and 3 TDs. Has also thrown two TDs and has returned 4 punts for 172 yards, including a TD in blowout win at Texas.
5. Mike Hart, RB, Michigan (NR). Campaign was buried after an 0-2 start, but leads the nation in yards (1,078) and 100-yard games (7). Has a shot if Michigan keeps winning.

--Nate Sandstrom

Top 25 rankings

I'm barely making the Monday deadline on this, but you have to forgive me I had a long day at work.

And so it was another weekend of mayhem in college football, and its starting to look like nobody will go undefeated. The Buckeyes move into the #1 spot, where I've been tempted to put them the last few weeks. However, I had to give the Tigers credit for that schedule.

Accordingly, they only drop to #5 in my poll with the loss. I have Boston College at #3, which I don't really like, but they will have a chance to earn during their last five games, starting with a trip to Virginia Tech on Oct. 25.

I may have Arizona State a bit low at #13, but like BC they get an off week and then a chance to prove their position the following week when Cal comes to town for homecoming.

Here's my rankings (record, previous).
1. Ohio State (7-0,2). Allowed 7 points or fewer in 6 of 7 games.
2. South Florida (6-0,7). Short time at top if press distracts them from Rutgers.
3. Boston College (7-0,8). They are bigger surprise than S. Florida.
4. Oklahoma (6-1,12). Proved Colorado was a hiccup, back in title contention.
5. LSU (6-1,1). Who'd have thought they couldn't convert on 4th & 2.
6. South Carolina (6-1,5). UNC almost pulled comeback.
7. California (5-1,3). Throw it away! Throw it away!
8. Oregon (5-1,4). Win by 46 and drop? They fall with Cal.
9. Kentucky (6-1,24). Storybook season continues.
10. West Virginia (5-1,9). Looks to right ship against upstart Miss State.
11. Florida (4-2,6). Look to stop Kentucky's magic this weekend.
12. USC (5-1,13). Trailed Arizona in second half.
13. Arizona St. (7-0,14). Rising fast, now comes meat of the schedule.
14. Virginia Tech (6-1,20). Offense is starting to come together.
15. Missouri (5-1,10). Valiant effort but Sooners put Tigers back in their place.
16. Tennessee (4-2,16). Will need a win at 'bama to stay in contention.
17. Georgia (5-2,19). Fifth in SEC East, 17th in nation.
18. Kansas (6-0,21). W at Colorado and Jayhawks may be thinking 11-0 into Mizzou.
19. Auburn (5-2,22). Defense has turned it up.
20. Michigan (5-2,25). Don't look now, but this team controls Rose Bowl destiny.
21. Penn State (5-2,NR). No one wants to play at Penn State.
22. Illinois (5-2,11). Could've won, shouldnt've been that close.
23. Kansas State (4-2,NR). So close to undefeated, yet so far.
24. Cincinnati (6-1,15). Caught a desperate Cardinals team in first loss.
25. Hawaii (7-0,17). Trip to San Jose was way too close.

--Nate Sandstrom

Worst weekend ever

On weekends like this past one, I sometimes question why I invest so much in football.

This is about what I looked like on Sunday night.

I spent Saturday watching all my teams go down in flames. Miami continued their slide with a home loss to Georgia Tech, Iowa State was absolutely annihilated at home by Texas and Wisconsin was run out of the building at Penn State.

How to follow that up? How about watching the Redskins throw away a game they dominated.

I also pulled an 0-for on my "locks" and my softball team lost a game 4-2 dropping us into a tie for first place.

Ugh. Hurry up next weekend.

--Nate Sandstrom

Mark's Week Six Power Rankings

1. Patriots (1) - First test coming up. They'll get an A. Can I rank them higher than #1 next week?
2. Colts (2) - More than two weeks to prep for a road Jacksonville game. They might need it.
3. Steelers (6) - Take the team to the hospital during the bye week and get ready to plow over Denver
4. Cowboys (3) - This week they really will be America's team as all the Patriots haters will be out in force
5. Jaguars (10) - Nate's sanity level - 7 out of 10 (for now)
6. Titans (5) -
7. Chargers (13) - Someone may have woken the sleeping giant. Does anyone think Sean Merriman looks like Seau? I'm talking looks only. Carolyn does. She's crazy.
8. Packers (4) - You can't blame Favre for being Favre. Oh, wait. Yes you can.
9. Redskins (14) - A Cowboy loss realy would have helped them out.
10. Ravens (11) - Yawn. Please, Billick, throw away your playbook, run the ball and remind me why I'm a fan in the first place.
11. Bears (15) - They are who we thought they were!
12. Cardinals (18) - They should take this division. Probably won't though.
13. Bucs (9) - They better trade for a running back soon.
14. Browns (12) - I already get the feeling this is going to be next year's trendy "sleeper" team.
15. Seahawks (8) - You can't blame them for losing a road game to a good team. Oh, wait. yes you can.
16. Giants (21) - Plaxico gets to torch Hall this week.
17. Texans (16) - Don't look now, but they've got the foundation for a strong D-line.
18. Bengals (17) - Dropped a spot in the bye week. If they lose to KC this week, get the popcorn ready b/c this team is waiting to blow up.
19. Lions (7) - According to ESPN magazine, this team has 8 conversions to born again Christians since Kitna signed.
20. Eagles (28) - Moved up to this spot by default
21. Panthers (22) - I guess Testaverde isn't among those that think Trent Green should retire immediately
22. Raiders (26) - First place. What else can I say?
23. Jets (24) - I say it every week. They're good, but don't have enough elite talent.
24. Bills(31) - Sure they never should have lost that game. But 3/4 of that team played great. I haven't seen much of either, but I think Marshawn Lynch is a better rookie than Adrian Peterson
25. Chiefs (19) - LJ had 10 yards last week. This week he'll have 210
26. Falcons (27) - Not horrible.
27. Vikings (23) - Sorry, Adrian
28. Niners (26) - Did anyone else see Dilfer do the Lights Out dance?
29. Broncos (20) - Spanked twice at home now.
30. Dolphins (29) - Someone give Joey a hug and tell him they're 0-5
31. Rams (32) - Rams fans, prepare to be bored in week six. You're playing Baltimore
32. Saints (31) - No more cool Brees.

Lockdown -- Week Six

We came so close to going 3-0 on lockdown last week. But the Rams had to get a TD and 2-point conversion with 13 seconds left to shave the Cards (-3.5) lead to 34-31.

Well, there's always this week.

I had a tough time picking my three games this week, as I eyeballed but ultimately rejected three MAC games. Bowling Green +1 is my favorite, as I think Miami-O may be a bit overrated.

But that's not official. These are:

Saturday:
LSU (-9.5) at Kentucky

Everyone who talks about Kentucky talks about Andre Woodson, but it RB Rafael Little's questionable status that convinced me to move LSU to a "lock."

This is the biggest home game for Kentucky since the days of Tim Couch, but Woodson looked lost last year against the Tigers. He also struggled against the Gamecock's first-tier defense last week. With no Rafael Little to run to outside and keep the Tigers honest, I think this game will be a walk for the Tigers.

Pick: LSU 38 Kentucky 14

Indiana (+3.5) at Michigan State

The Spartans have a new coach, but it's the same old story. Michigan State sprinted out to a hot non-conference start at 4-0, but have tanked their first two Big Ten games, blowing leads in each.

Now they come home to East Lansing as favorites against perennial doormats Indiana. But the Hoosiers are doormats no more. They are 5-1, with their lone loss at Illinois. QB Kellen Lewis and WR James Hardy are going wild. Are the Hoosiers thinking New Year's Day Bowl? Dream a little dream.

I'll call for a typical MSU game, lead early, lose late.

Pick: Indiana 41 Michigan State 31

Sunday:
Tennessee (+3) at Tampa Bay

Two relatively evenly-matched teams play, so the home team is a 3-point favorite My new strategy is take the road dog.

I figure most people pick the home team, because the home team wins more often than not. But I don't think they win as often as they are picked. So I figure the line is set at -3 for the home team, because most people will pick them.

This strategy is not numerically tested, but I point to Carolina (+3) at New Orleans last week as an example of success.

So I'm applying my new unscientific theory to the Titans. I was a big Bucs backer before the season, but their injuries are piling up. Their top two RBs are out and Barrett Ruud and Brian Kelly are questionable.

The Titans don't win pretty, but they keep winning.

Pick: Tennessee 21 Tampa Bay 13

Upset Special:

Iowa State (+16.5/+700) vs. Texas

We dropped back into the red on the upset special last week, as the other team from Iowa played a horribly uninspired game. But how do you fight red? With red and gold!

Cyclones head coach Gene Chizik was the Longhorns D coordinator the last two years, so he know the personnel pretty well.

Still, the Longhorns easily out-talent the 'Clones. Both teams probably have their least-talented squads in several years.

The Cyclones played an inspired game against Iowa and won a game they never should have won. This might be the week that Chizik can get them up to do so again. Besides, we never know which Longhorns will be in jail between now and Saturday.

If ISU pulls this off, we should be in the black for the year at upset special.

Pick: Iowa State 24 Texas 21

--Nate Sandstrom

Mark is out of town, so don't expect any of his bad picks.

Uh, TMI, BB

Cornerback Samari Rolle is expected to finally make a return this weekend from a mysterious illness that has knocked him from the game for three weeks. It was speculated here that Rolle was experiencing mental illness. Others have suspected, thanks to the Ravens' Bellichicky silence on the issue, some sort of embarrassing STD. Which makes me want to nickname Rolle "The Host". But I don't want to steal that from Jim, so maybe I'll just go with "Bird Flu". Either way, it's about time he got back.

In possibly related news, is the mystery virus spreading? Brian Billick announced today that Derrick Mason has the runs. Thanks, Bri.

He's got - as Tess [trainer Bill Tessendorf] says - gastroenteritis," Billick said. "In my neighborhood, that's [diarrhea]. So you put whatever label you want to."

Nate's NFL Power Ratings-October 11

Sorry these are a day late, poker went late night Wednesday.
(Record, last week)

1. New England (5-0,1). A bookie's nightmare. A favorite that always covers.
2. Indianapolis (5-0,2). Never so little coverage around an undefeated Colts team.
3. Pittsburgh (4-1,3). Righted ship in Seattle drubbing with half the team out.
4. Dallas (5-0,4). As Franz Ferdinand says: You're so lucky.
5. Green Bay (4-1,5). Turnovers returned to Pack at bad time.
6. Tennessee (3-1,7). Sorry Sal, Jeff Fisher is not overrated.
7. Seattle (3-2,6). Pittsburgh made them look bad.
8. Baltimore (3-2,8). Still looking for last year's magic.
9. San Diego (2-3,26). May have found last year's magic.
10. Jacksonville (3-1,19). The more they run, th more they win.
11. Tampa Bay. (3-2,10). Injuries are piling up.
12. Chicago (2-3,22). Defense got inspired in Green Bay.
13. Arizona (3-2,9). St. Louis came way to close.
14. Cincinnati (1-3,11). Chiefs present chance to get back on track.
15. Washington (3-1,14). Where was that defense last year?
16. N.Y. Giants (3-2,17). I'm staying skeptical.
17. Denver (2-3,12). What Chargers did to them was ruthless.
18. Carolina (3-2,20). At least they're wining.
19. Philadelphia (1-3,13). Other teams in division may have caught them.
20. Detroit (3-2,15). NFC East road trips are over.
21. Houston (3-2,18). This team is fading fast.
22. Kansas City (2-3,25). The defense isn't that bad.
23. Oakland (2-2, 23). Time in first won't last long.
24. Cleveland (2-3,16). Disappointing defense.
25. San Francisco (2-3,21). Dilfer almost stole a win.
26. Buffalo (1-4,28). Keep finding ways to lose.
27. New Orleans (0-4,24). See above.
28. N.Y. Jets (1-4,29). This was a playoff team.
29. Minnesota (1-3,27). Only win is Atlanta.
30. Atlanta (1-4,30). Showing improvement.
31. Miami (0-5,31). How many wins does Cleo predict?
32. St. Louis (0-5,32). Will Gus lead this bus?

Heisman Watch, Oct. 9

I couldn't drop DeSean Jackson on an off-week, but Rashard Mendenhall is now breathing down his neck on my unofficial ballot.

1. DeSean Jackson, WR, Cal. 28 rec., 312 yds rec., 2 TD receiving, 1 TD rushing and 1 PR TD. The numbers aren't great in themselves, but he's had the home run plays that have Cal #2 in the country.
2. Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Illinois. 129 rush ypg, 6.8 ypc, 10 rush TD. 2 rec TD. Junior RB burst into this race with 3TDs against Badgers.
3. Michael Crabtree, WR, Texas Tech. 179 ypg, 17 TDs, 15.3 ypc. Shattering records. He's only a freshman.
4. Chase Daniel, QB, Missouri. 149.9 passer rating, 1,712 yards, 15/4; 188 rushing yards, 3 TDs. Oklahoma game will make or break his campaign.
5. Kellen Lewis, QB, Indiana. 141.6 rating, 1,463 yards, 15/6; 449 rushing, 3 TDs. If Lewis can pull a couple upsets, he could be guiding the Hoosiers to a New Year's Day bowl. Not even Randle-El did that.

Also considered — Jordy Nelson, Tim Tebow, Kevin Smith

--Nate Sandstrom

I love it when Tony Romo sucks!

I know there is still plenty of time for the Bills to melt down, but the Bills are getting so many junk TDs I feel like they may actually win this thing. Maybe the Cowboys shouldn't have been so worried about the Patriots.

***********update*********Tuesday

The Cowboys are so f'ing lucky.

--Nate

Top 25 rankings - Oct. 8

When I write my rankings, I first list teams by conference. Then I select a few and decide if I consider them roughly "top 10," "11-18" or "borderline."

Usually I list about 30 teams and then have to decide which to leave out, but this week I came up with exactly 25. Now that I'm reading this, it may not be as interesting to you as it was to me.

You can certainly accuse me of loving 2-loss SEC teams too much, but I just think its the best conference. It will be easier to tell in about two more weeks.

Here they are:

1. LSU. Beats ranked team after ranked team. At Kentucky this weekend.
2. Ohio State. This defense is on a mission to prove Florida was a fluke.
3. California. Berkeley has never been so high. Oh, wait.
4. Oregon. Benefit from an off week in which other teams underwhelm me.
5. South Carolina. Only loss at LSU. Control their destiny in the East.
6. Florida. Move up, even with choke job at LSU.
7. South Florida. Top D get nation's leading rusher this week.
8. Boston College. No one's risen so quickly beating Army, UMass & Bowling Green.
9. West Virginia. Off this week before Miss. St. comes for homecoming.
10. Missouri. Will need to win in Norman to keep this spot.
11. Illinois. Shouldn't look past wounded Hawks.
12. Oklahoma. Less than impressive against Texas.
13. USC. Stanford? Really?
14. Arizona State. Survived trap game at WSU. Cal is homecoming game Oct. 27.
15. Cincinnati. Ben Mauck-ed Rutgers fans. No, seriously, the chopping thing.
16. Tennessee. The second-best two-loss SEC team.
17. Hawaii. Could sneak into BCS game.
18. Wisconsin. Loss at Penn State could drop Badgers out of rankings, ruin season.
19. Georgia. Forgot they had to play the Tennessee game.
20. Virginia Tech. Team impresses me for the first time with win at Clemson.
21. Kansas. How did this happen?
22. Auburn. Fourth-best two-loss SEC team.
23. Florida State. Have revenge shot at Wake on national TV Thursday.
24. Kentucky. Played better than score against SC.
25. Michigan. Four-game win streak.
--Nate Sandstrom

Other rankings posted under comments. Does anyone really think Boston College is the nation's fourth-best team? I don't really worry about the polls until November but Texas should not be ranked and how is USC still #7 in the coaches poll?

All good things must come to an end

I almost called this post "living on the edge." Either titlee fits the seasons of Wisconsin, which had the nation's longest winning steak broken last weekend, and USC, which had the nation's longest home winning streak snapped by a 41-point underdog on Saturday.

For the Badgers thus far, their games have been similar. Fall behind less talented team. Push ahead of less talented team. Let less talented team get back in it. Pull out win in the end.

On Saturday, the Badgers followed the early part of the script, but forgot the rest. I can't say I'm entirely surprised, I had already ranked Illinois #16 coming into the game and as soon as Vegas posted them as favorites I was concerned.

Nonetheless, I mounted the Badger "W" on the front of my house on Saturday morning and hoped for the best.



The score, 31-26, wasn't very Big 10, but the hitting was. Wisconsin WR Luke Swan was knocked out of the game, and his Badger career is now over. Too bad, as he was having a solid season and may have had a chance to make an NFL team next year.

Meanwhile, Illinois lost QB Juice Williams, although Eddie McGee continued to show he is no slouch. WR Arrelious Benn was also injured. Both appear unfazed.

So now the questions are: 1) How will Wisconsin rebound after their first loss in 15 games? 2) How will Illinois players respond to their new found success?

Before the season, I pegged the Badgers only loss this season to be at Penn State this Saturday, although I feel less confident that they will win in Ohio State each week. I think they can win at Penn State, but I'm going to wait and see how the injury report reads before making a pick on this one.

Illinois heads to Iowa, a reeling team with a pathetic offense. Hard to believe, but Iowa has lost eight straight Big 10 games. But Ferentz is 3-0 vs. Zook.

I had Illinois to win this game before the year started. At the time it seemed like an upset but obviously not anymore. Illini are opening as a 3.5 point favorite, but if they lose focus they could slip.

Now to USC. While they have not fallen behind in games like Wisconsin, they have had a tendency to let teams hang around. They finally got burned by Stanford.

USC had won 35 straight home games, with their last loss also to Stanford in 2001. Matt Hayes calls Saturday's result the end of the dynasty. Booty is hurt. Oh no!

I'm not ready to say the sky is falling. This is the nation's most talented team and I don't believe any team will finish the year undefeated. It's going to be tough for them to get back in the title picture, but if they run the table, including wins against Cal, Oregon and Arizona State, they'll have a shot.

Congrats on beating the best team in history, Coach Harbaugh.

Ironically enough, another upset minded team now has the nation's longest home winning steak — Appalachian State.

--Nate Sandstrom

Lockdown --Weekend of Oct. 5

If you took Indiana on the money line, you probably had a good weekend. Pulled 1-1-1 on the other games, with a push on the Ravens-Browns over, thanks to Stover's missed field goals.


Friday
Utah (+14.5) at Louisville
A Friday night battle of two disappointing teams. Utah ripped UCLA 44-6, but were blown out at UNLV and Oregon State.

Louisville is another up and down team. They should have beat Kentucky, then came out flat and lost at home to Syracuse.

Louisville's the better team, but they only beat M. Tenn. by 16 and N.C. State by 19. I love the points here.

Louisville 45 Utah 41

Saturday
Missouri (-6) vs. Nebraska

Nebraska has been outyardaged in their last four games, including home games against Ball St. and Iowa St. What do you think Chase Daniel will do to that defense?

Missouri had an offweek to get ready for this game, and I think they will go ahead early; 14-0 at end of the first quarter, 28-7 at half.

Home team has won the last five in this series, don't expect any changes.

Missouri 41 Nebraska 24


Sunday
Arizona (-3.5) at St. Louis

It seems like everywhere I look, people are picking the Rams in this game. Why?

St. Louis is 0-4 ATS, Arizona is 4-0. Perhaps the QB tandem is leading the public to undervalue Arizona. Or maybe they think St. Louis is due? Not without Bulger and Jackson.

No upset here.

Arizona 28 St. Louis 10

Upset Special
Iowa (+9/+285) at Penn State

I know I've said the rule for upset special is a team has to be +10, but this is close enough.

You're bigger question is probably how can you pick Iowa, losers of three straight, including to Iowa St. They've also lost seven straight Big 10 games.

Here's my answer: Penn State's rush defense has been bad, and I believe the Hawkeyes can win a field position game with Albert Young. If the defense gets a takeaway or two, I think they can steal a win here.

Penn State has also been putrid in the red zone. These two teams are 10th and 11th in first downs among Big Ten teams.

Iowa has won the last five in this match-up, including a 6-4 win when they last played in 2004.

Iowa 17 Penn State 13

--Nate Sandstrom

Turnover machine

Kentucky QB Andre Woodson may have the NCAA record for most consecutive passes without an interception, but last night he was a turnover machine. Woodson threw an interception as Kentucky was about to put it in the end zone and fumbled twice - Carolina DE Eric Norwood took both back for touchdowns.

I told one friend that S.C. (-3.5) was a "triple star infinity" lock, but if not for the turnovers, Kentucky likely would have won (they outyardaged the Cocks 387-342.) But that's a big but, and with LSU and Florida coming up next, the Wildcats run in the top 25 might end by next week. As you read on my last Top 25 post, Kentucky being ranked #8 was ridiculous.

As for S.C., who I called for to win the SEC East, things are looking good. They control their own destiny. They head to UNC for a non-conference tilt next week, then have Vandy at home. They should be 7-1 when they head to Tennessee and Arkansas in back-to-back weeks.


--Nate Sandstrom