Actually, I think Daunte would benefit from the media translating his message

Read and laugh

Lockdown -- Week 1

By Nate Sandstrom and Mark Goldman

So I guess I have to eat a little humble pie after calling for the Redskins to win in Carolina. They of course were destroyed, 47-3.

But it was preseason for me too. And even though I'm usually awful in Week 1, I'm betting I can beat Mark. So here you go, Nate's plan to win cash on Labor Day Weekend:

• Utah (+3) at Michigan

If you read my preseason picks, you know how I feel about Michigan this year. Now they're starting a walk-on QB? Utah is much better than App. State was last year, so why not make losing at home at Week One a new Michigan football tradition.

Nate's Pick: Utah 24 Michigan 13

• USC (-19.5) at Virginia

Last year, Virginia became the first team in NCAA history to win five games by two points or less. It was a near miracle that the Cavs won nine games, and now that they have lost 11 starters, including virtually their whole offensive and defensive lines, USC takes this in a walk.

Nate's Pick: USC 41 Virginia 10

• Upset Special: Kent State (+345) vs. Boston College (in Cleveland)

This is the game to play for the homerun this week. Kent State returns 16 starters and will be pumped-up for this challenge against a BCS team. BC loses 12 starters, but looks past a MAC opponent in this one.

Nate's pick: Kent State 19 Boston College 17

Here's Mark's picks:

• Oregon (-13.5) vs. Washington

Washington has lost to Oregon in their last four attempts. By an average of 23 ppg. Last year Oregon went crazy, winning 55-34 with unreal performances from their stars who combined for 465 rushing yards on 62 attempts. Jonathan Stewart and Dennis Dixon are gone now, but Oregon has a deep set of running backs in Blount, Johnson and Crenshaw. Look for Oregon to follow last years script and ram it down Washington's throat.

• Pittsburgh (-13) vs. Bowling Green

Last year Pittsburgh cried their way to a 5-7 record as they watched Joe Flacco lead the Blue Hens to a season few dare to even dream of! This year Pittsburgh should be much improved with 15 returning starters. They've won 10 of their last 11 home openers and that should continue this year against the Falcons.

• Upset Special: Northern Illinois (+270) at Minnesota

If there's such thing as a misleading 1-11 record, I haven't seen it. That's what we have in the Minnesota Gophers, who will take more than just a summer to improve. What a daunting task for them to take on a 2-10 team! In a battle of bad teams, I like the team that's going from just three senior starters last year to 21 starters returning and 20 seniors with starting experience. Look for N.I. to show up and eek out a win.

Last, but not least we have a toss-up —Fresno State at Rutgers (-5)

Nate says: Take Fresno State. Coach Hill has taken his Bulldogs to plenty of road wins against BCS teams in the past. He will have the Bulldogs motivated and Rutgers' loss of Ray Rice makes the difference in the season opener for two experienced teams.

Mark says: Get a surfboard and go to the beach, you damn dirty hippie. Fresno will come to Jersey and get punched in the mouth. Rutgers will have a hard time replacing Ray Rice, yes, but as Nate says, these are experienced teams and pretty well matched up. I like the home team vs. the team that hasn't traveled farther east than Ohio since before 2000. Rutgers takes it all in the Game of the Century!

Five Bold Predictions for the 2008 College Football Season

By Nate Sandstrom

We're just a few hours from the kickoff of the 2008 season, and I couldn't be more excited. I'll be interested in seeing how South Carolina's offense comes out of the gate after struggling so badly late last season. Anyway, here's the final installment of my preseason preview, with "Five Bold Predictions."

1) Losing the last two national title games will cost this year's Ohio State team.

If you read my last post, you'll see that I have Clemson, Oklahoma and Ohio State all finishing the regular season with one loss. In the two weeks between Ohio State finishing their regular season and Clemson and Oklahoma playing in their respective conference championship games, I predict there will be a lot of pundits and writers complaining about the prospect of seeing Ohio State lose badly in a title game for the third straight year. I expect that complaint will weigh on voters, and Ohio State will drop from #1 to #3 in the polls after Clemson and Oklahoma each win their conference title games.

After a Big Ten team is leapfrogged by a conference championship for the second time in three years (Florida passed Michigan in '06), the conference will step up efforts to recruit a 12th team in the upcoming offseason. But they will not bend from otherwise finishing the regular season before Thanksgiving.

2) Michigan will be this year's Notre Dame.

Some people will be shocked to see me slating Michigan to finish just 3-9 and last in the Big Ten. But most people probably wouldn't have have believed Notre Dame would finish 3-9 in 2007.

The Wolverines return just 10 starters; they lose their top 2 passers and receivers, top rusher and top four tacklers. Add to that a new coach in Rich Rodriguez (who went just 4-7 his first year at W. Virginia) with a new offense and I smell disaster.

3) Temple will win as many games (including a bowl win) as they have over the past five years.

How often have you seen a team return 22 starters, plus their kicker and punter? How about bringing back 53 of 55 letterman?

At many schools such a scenario would have the students calling for a national title. But when you are one of the NCAA's perennial losers, your goals have to be a little more modest. And the Temple Owls have not gone bowling since 1979. Prior to going 4-8 last year, they won just four games in the previous four years.

I think a favorable schedule and experience will help to get the Owls build off last year's progress. They get back to a bowl for the first time in three decades and exact revenge on Connecticut for a loss they suffered because of a bad call. One of the year's "feel-good" stories.

4) No one will be this year's Hawaii or Boise State, but BYU and Tulsa will come close.

It might not be "bold" to say that no non-BCS Conference team will go undefeated, but it has happened two years in a row. The team I rate with the best chance to make it three straight years is Tulsa, despite the loss of QB Paul Smith.

The Golden Hurricane return nine starters from an offense that scored 576 points in 14 games. The defense was not so good in 2007, but the unit should be adequate against what Phil Steele ranks as the nation's easiest schedule (toughest games vs. Central Florida, at Arkansas). Alas, I have Tulsa being upset in the Conference USA title game in a rematch with UCF.

The other team I predict running the table until its final game is the BYU Cougars. They also return nine starters from a prolific offense, and have just #86-ranked schedule by Steele. However, they have to play Utah on the road, where I am calling for them to be upset and also bounced out of a conference championship (lose tie-breaker to Utah).

5) Western Illinois will pull the opening weekend stunner by going to Arkansas and pulling out the upset for Coach Don Patterson, who is undergoing treatment for tonsillar cancer.

Maybe its a sentimental pick, but I think there is real reason to think this could happen. Arkansas will be playing their first game with Coach Bobby Petrino and more importantly without Darren McFadden, Felix Jones and Peyton Hillis.

W. Illinois was just 6-5 last year, but that was in the quality FCS Missouri Valley conference. They return 20 starters and if they are able to get a couple of takeaways I think they can edge out a win.


There you have it. We will have to see how I fare. Enjoy the season everyone!

Nate's 2008 college football predictions — Part 2: Bowls and Final Top 25

By Nate Sandstrom

Alright, back from a sweet O's trouncing of the Sox. In the meantime, I finished the bowl slots and so here you have it:

For the second straight year I'm taking the Oklahoma Sooners to be national champs. I'll get into this more during my five bold predictions, which have been pushed back to Thursday evening (it's late here on the East Coast).

Bowl picks:

BCS Title Game: #1 Oklahoma 30 #2 Clemson 24
GMAC Bowl: #25 Tulsa 41 Northern Illinois 21
Fiesta Bowl: #8 Texas Tech 58 #13 Wisconsin 45
International Bowl: Bowling Green 34 Rutgers 31
Sugar Bowl: #4 Auburn 28 #9 West Virginia 20
Liberty Bowl: Ole Miss 20 Central Florida 13
Cotton Bowl: #11 Texas 27 #15 LSU 24
Orange Bowl: #10 South Florida 27 #6 Florida 21
Rose Bowl: #4 USC 31 #3 Ohio State 23
Capital One Bowl: #7 Georgia 27 #16 Penn State 17
Gator Bowl: Florida State 31 Notre Dame 14
Outback Bowl: #18 South Carolina 20 Iowa 10
Chick-Fil-A Bowl: #17 Virginia Tech 40 #19 Tennessee 20
Insight Bowl: Illinois 30 Texas A&M 17
Music City Bowl: Alabama 21 Miami 13
Sun Bowl: Arizona 31 Kansas 30
Armed Forces Bowl: TCU 28 SMU 14
Holiday Bowl: #12 Missouri 37 #14 Oregon 30
Texas Bowl: UTEP 28 Kansas State 24
Humanitarian Bowl: #22 Boise State 34 Boston College 21
Alamo Bowl: Northwestern 44 Nebraska 41
Papajohns.com Bowl: Cincinnati 34 Kentucky 17
Independence Bowl: Oklahoma State 23 Mississippi State 14
Emerald Bowl: Cal 27 Maryland 17
Champs Sports Bowl: Michigan State 27 #21 North Carolina 20
Meineke Car Care Bowl: Pitt 21 #20 Wake Forest 14
Motor City Bowl: Troy 37 Central Michigan 35
Hawaii Bowl: Oregon State 35 Hawaii 13
Poinsettia Bowl: #24 BYU 44 Arizona State 28
New Orleans Bowl: East Carolina 37 Florida Atlantic 30
Las Vegas Bowl: #23 Utah 40 Nevada 21
New Mexico Bowl: Fresno State 34 UNLV 17
Congressional Bowl: Temple 28 Connecticut 24
St. Petersburg Bowl: Louisville 48 Marshall 31

Predicted Final Top 25 poll:
1. Oklahoma 13-1
2. USC 11-2
3. Auburn 12-2
4. Clemson 12-2
5. Georgia 11-2
6. Ohio State 11-2
7. South Florida 12-1
8. Texas Tech 11-2
9. Texas 11-2
10. Missouri 10-2
11. Florida 11-3
12. Virginia Tech 11-3
13. West Virginia 10-3
14. South Carolina 9-4
15. LSU 9-4
16. Wisconsin 10-3
17. Penn State 9-4
18. Boise State 12-1
19. Oregon 10-3
20. Utah 11-2
21. BYU 12-1
22. Tulsa 13-1
23. Florida State 9-4
24. Michigan State 9-4
25. Tennessee 8-5

Nate's 2008 college football predictions — Part 1

By Nate Sandstrom

I'm off to the Orioles-White Sox game tonight, so I'm posting my picks in three segments. This first segment gives you my predictions for where things will stand at the end of what should be yet another exciting and controversial regular season.

After the game, I will post my projected bowl matchups and final Top 25 rankings. I will also post "Five Bold Predictions" (you can debate whether they are bold) that will give a look inside the raw numbers I'm posting here.

Below I've listed the conference and overall records I am calling for each team to finish with, as well as where I predict they will be ranked in the final Coaches Top 25 poll. In case of a tie, the teams have been ranked in order of head-to-head tie-breaker. An asterisk indicates that I call for that team to win its conference championship game.

One thing you may notice is that I am calling for no teams to finish undefeated and three BCS teams to finish with one loss, meaning another year of controversy on who should play in the national title game. I'll get more into how I am predicting that to break down later tonight in my "Bold Predictions" post.

2008 Preseason Picks — End of regular season

Top 25
1. Oklahoma 12-1
2. Clemson 12-1
3. Ohio State 11-1
4. Auburn 11-2
5. USC 10-2
6. Florida 11-2
7. Georgia 10-2
8. Texas Tech 10-2
9. W. Virginia 10-2
10. S. Florida 11-1
11. Texas 10-2
12. Missouri 11-2
13. Wisconsin 10-2
14, Oregon 10-2
15. LSU 9-3
16. Penn St. 9-3
17. Va. Tech 10-3
18. S. Carolina 8-4
19. Tennessee 8-4
20. Wake Forest 9-3
21 N. Carolina 9-3
22. Boise St. 11-1
23. Utah 10-2
24. BYU 11-1
25.Tulsa 12-1

Standings:
SEC East
1. Florida 7-2 11-2
2. Georgia 6-2 10-2
3. S. Carolina 5-3 8-4
4. Tennessee 4-4 8-4
5. Kentucky 3-5 6-6
6. Vanderbilt 0-8 2-10

SEC West
1. Auburn* 7-2 11-2
2. LSU 5-3 9-3
3. Alabama 4-4 7-5
4. Mississippi 4-4 7-5
5. Miss. State 2-6 6-6
6. Arkansas 2-6 3-9

Big Ten
1. Ohio State 7-1 11-1
2. Wisconsin 6-2 10-2
3. Penn State 5-3 9-3
4. Mich. St. 5-3 8-4
5. Iowa 5-3 8-4
6. N’western 4-4 7-5
7. Illinois 3-5 6-6
8. Purdue 3-5 5-7
9. Minnesota 3-5 5-7
10. Indiana 2-6 5-7
11. Michigan 1-7 3-9

Pac-10
1. USC 8-1 10-2
2. Oregon 7-2 10-2
3. UCLA 5-4 5-7
4. Oregon St. 5-4 7-5
5. Arizona 5-4 8-4
6. Cal 5-4 7-5
7. Arizona St. 4-5 6-6
8. Washington 3-6 4-8
9. Stanford 2-7 3-9
10. Wash. St. 1-8 3-9

Big 12 South
1. Oklahoma* 8-1 12-1
2. Texas Tech 6-2 10-2
3. Texas 6-2 10-2
4. Tex. A&M 4-4 7-5
5. Okl. State 3-5 7-5
6. Baylor 0-8 1-11

Big 12 North
1. Missouri 7-2 11-2
2. Kansas 5-3 8-4
3. Nebraska 3-5 7-5
4. Kansas St. 3-5 6-6
5. Colorado 3-5 5-7
6. Iowa St. 1-7 3-9

ACC Atlantic
1. Clemson* 8-1 12-1
2. Florida St. 5-3 8-4
3. Wake 5-3 9-3
4. Maryland 4-4 8-4
5. N.C. State 2-6 3-9
6. Boston Col. 2-6 6-6

ACC Coastal
1. Va. Tech 7-2 10-3
2. N. Carolina 6-2 9-3
3. Miami 6-2 8-4
4. Duke 3-5 4-8
5. Ga. Tech 1-7 3-9
6. Virginia 0-8 2-10

Big East
1. W. Virginia 6-1 10-2
2. S. Florida 6-1 11-1
3. Cincinnati 4-3 9-4
4. Rutgers 4-3 7-5
5. Pitt 3-4 7-5
6. Louisville 3-4 8-4
7. UConn 2-5 6-6
8. Syracuse 0-7 2-10

Mountain West
1. Utah 7-1 10-2
2, BYU 7-1 11-1
3. TCU 5-3 8-4
4. Wyoming 4-4 5-7
5. UNLV 4-4 6-6
6. S.D. State 3-5 5-7
7. Air Force 2-6 5-7
8. New Mex. 2-6 3-9
9. Col. St. 1-7 2-10

Conf. USA West
1. Tulsa 8-1 12-1
2. SMU 5-3 6-6
3. UTEP 4-4 6-6
4. Houston 3-5 6-6
5. Tulane 2-6 4-8
6. Rice 2-6 4-8

Conf. USA East
1. C. Florida* 7-2 8-5
2. E. Carolina 5-3 7-5
3. Marshall 5-3 6-6
4. Memphis 3-5 5-7
5. So. Miss 2-6 3-9
6. UA-Birm. 2-6 3-9

WAC
1. Boise St. 8-0 11-1
2. Fresno St. 6-2 9-3
3. Hawaii 5-3 7-6
4. Nevada 5-3 7-5
5. San Jose St. 4-4 6-6
6. NMSU 3-5 5-7
7. La. Tech 2-6 3-9
8. Idaho 2-6 3-9
9. Utah State 1-7 1-11

Independents
1. Notre Dame 7-5
2. Navy 5-7
3. Army 3-9
4. W. Kentucky 2-10

MAC West
1. C. Mich.* 7-1 10-3
2. W. Mich. 5-3 8-4
3. No. Ill. 5-3 6-6
4. Ball State 4-4 7-5
5. E. Mich. 2-6 3-9
6. Toledo 1-7 2-10

MAC East
1. Bowl Grn. 7-1 9-4
2. Temple 5-3 7-5
3. Miami 4-4 6-6
4. Kent St. 4-4 5-7
5. Buffalo 3-5 5-7
6. Ohio 2-6 3-9
7. Akron 2-6 2-10

Sun Belt
1. Fla. Atl. 7-0 10-2
2. Troy 6-1 8-4
3. UL-Monroe 4-3 5-7
4. N. Texas 3-4 3-9
5. UL-Laff. 3-4 3-9
6. Ark. State 3-4 5-7
7. M. Tenn. 2-5 2-10
8. Fla. Int’l 1-6 2-10

Faceoff

By Nate Sandstrom and Mark Goldman

This week's guest questioner dude is Will Pharr, brother in law of blogmaster Mark, devoted Skins fan, golf enthusiast, connoisseur of fine beer, and father of one jiggy little boy, who so far is the Goldman's best shot at a future generation of football fandom.


Q: The 'Skins' late-season run to the playoffs last year was incredibly exciting, but in reality highly unexpected. With QB Jason Campbell entering his fourth pro season and new head coach Jim Zorn running the show where do you see this team going? As a lifelong Washington fan I don't know how many more of these mediocre seasons I can handle.


Mark says: Wah Wah Wah. Mediocre seasons? You've been to the playoffs two of the past three seasons and notched a win in one of those. OK, it was against Tampa, everyone's favorite first-round whipping boy, but still. Sorry, I'm venting. But seriously, until you get an elite QB, you're stuck with mediocrity or worse in this league. I don't buy that Campbell is that guy. And it sure doesn't help that he's getting the 3rd offensive coordinator in his tenure. I think he's quality, but I don't ever see him being a super QB.

As for the rest of the team, it's got lots of depth and quality at every position. I don't know what position I'd say is a glaring weakness. That's a rare thing. The problem is you're in a pretty strong division. And like I said in last week's Faceoff, it's going to be hard to send three teams from one division to the playoffs in back-to-back years. You can write off the Giants — they're in for a big letdown and I think the Cowboys are the top dog of the division. So you and the Eagles are fighting the rest of the conference's understudies for that wild card spot. But, hey, the Giants won last year. So who the hell knows.

Nate says: OK, a little bit of the Redskins' luster has been taken off by the 34-0 hole the starters dug themselves into during the first half on Saturday. Carolina completely dominated the OL and Campbell looked like a lost, scared kitten:




But let's just write that off as a game where everything went wrong. Even last year's Super Bowl Champion Giants gave up more than 80 points at home in their first two games. The 'skins built depth at their one hole, the receiving corps, in the offseason. The secondary is not great, but the Jason Taylor injury turned out not to be so bad and the front seven will apply pressure. Zorn seems to be focusing on making the offense work for the players rather than making the players work for the offense. This team is definitely capable of 11 wins.

Q: The Minnesota Vikings seem to be this year's sexy pick to come out of the NFC. Adrian Peterson is the man and their defense is ridiculous; but I saw Tavaris Jackson quarterback the team a few times and he didn't seem efficient enough to run the Mt. Hebron Vikings' offense, let alone the Minnesota Vikings. What do his supporters see in this kid?

Nate says:

I expect the Minnesota Vikings to win more games this year than the Mount Hebron Vikings, and probably anyone in the NFC North, but not because of anything Tavaris Jackson does. In fact, I expect that Gus Frerotte will start at least four games this year.

Still, Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor rushed for over 5 ypc last year. Even though Peterson's average dropped to just 3.8 in December, Taylor increased his to 7 ypc. I expect the Vikings defense to be as strong as ever, and lead the team to a division title.

Still, I say the Eagles or Saints may be better choices as darkhorses to win the NFC than the Vikings because of the quarterback situation. But I think we all have to be honest and say the NFC is the Cowboys' to lose.

Mark says:

Well, if this is your idea of sexy, then yes, the Vikings are red hot. Forget Tavaris Jackson for a moment. Look for Adrian Peterson to suffer a sophomore letdown.

In the last 30 years, 42 RB's have gone for 1,000 yards as a rookie. Only 14 of those topped their yardage total the next year. Just 11 scored more TDs and nine averaged more YPC. Plus, don't forget that Peterson is injury prone. They do have Chester Taylor to fall back on, but where is Tavaris expected to throw the ball. You're right. The Vikings are sexy and that's why I'm not calling for them to win the division. I look east to Green Bay and I see a more complete team. They're questionable at the QB position, but I like the Packers to rally and win the division. They've let the Favre weight go and the Vikes still have to live with the weight of being this year's sexy pick. Things can fall apart very quickly for teams like this. We're going to be posting our season's predictions here at Sobo soon, but look for the Vikes to end up around 8-8 again.

Q: Do you see Florida QB Tim Tebow repeating as the Heisman Trophy Award winner in his upcoming junior season? What are your thoughts on other contenders?

Nate says:

I think Tebow is certainly the favorite (He's about 3-1 at gamblerspalace.com) this year. His surrounding offense should be even better than last season, when he ran for 23 TDs and passed for 32 more. The schedule also is more favorable as the Gators draw LSU at home and won't face Auburn unless they meet in an SEC Title Game. #5 Florida should also be in the Top 5 for most of the year, so Tebow will have plenty of exposure. However, as the QB gets praise in victory he often takes blame in defeat, and if the Gators were upset on the brink of a national title game, say Nov. 15 at South Carolina, he could take the fall.

The guy besides Tebow most likely to put up gaudy numbers is Texas Tech sophomore WR Michael Crabtree (17 to 2 odds). Last year, he caught 134 passes for 1,962 yards and 22 TDs! He could produce even bigger stats this year as 10 starters, including all 5 OL and QB Graham Harrell. The #14 Red Raiders should be undefeated when they head to Kansas on Oct. 25, followed by a home tilt with Texas on Nov. 1 and a trip to Norman the weekend before Thanksgiving. What happens in that stretch will determine his fate, and I think ultimately he and Tech will come up short.

The guy I like most to win this award is junior Ohio State RB Chris "Beanie" Wells (11 to 2 odds). Wells' speed and vision will give him a highlight reel that no other player will match in breadth and scope. Add to that the fact I expect #3 Ohio State to earn a bid to the National Championship again, and I will place my wager on Wells.

Looking for a dark horse? What about Clemson QB Cullen Harper? As a junior he posted a gaudy 27-6 TD/INT ration and the #9 Tigers toughest game prior to the ACC Championship and bowl game is probably at Wake Forest. Clemson seems to perennially underachieve, but if Coach Boweden got Clemson to a national title game then Harper would certainly get a look.

If you want more Heisman chatter, you should check out Heisman Pundit, who agrees with me in picking Wells to win this year's award.


Mark says:

As a Ravens fan, I have much interest in this question as I am already scouting the colleges for next year's #1 pick. Then again, take our Heisman winner, please!

But if I had a vote, I'd cast it right now for this Crabtree from TT that Nate mentioned based on his last year's stats alone. Damn, those are crazy numbers. But Nate's probably right and I have a hard time seeing someone from Texas Tech pulling out the Heisman. I also really like Cullen Harper out of Clemson.

I also like Pat White out of West Virginia to garner some of the votes. But it's tough to say now that Rich Rodriguez is in Michigan and Steve Slaton is in Houston. Will White be able to step up and make this his offense? We'll see.

Finally, look for the customary USC nod in QB Mark Sanchez. This team has put out three of the past six national champs.

Lockdown — Preseason Edition

By Nate Sandstrom

Time for the year's first lockdown pick. I know it's only preseason, but even we here at SoBo Football must get a tune-up. And what better weekend to pick than this one, when most teams play starters for a full half or more.

On the count of going through all the nuptials this month, I haven't watched much preseason football. So I'm going to pick the game involving the team I have really watched, the Washington Redskins.

Wahington (+3) at Carolina

The 'Skins (3-0) have been sharp thus far in the preseason and I expect more of the same. I'll give you more of a breakdown this evening, 'cause I got to head to my real job.

**Saturday a.m. update.

This is the 'Skins full dress rehearsal and I look for big things. Malcolm Kelly should explode on the scene in his first preseason game. Campbell seems really high on him. He's also really high on Cooley and we've seen him pile up stats.

Meanwhile, who is Carolina going to throw the ball to?

Prediction: Washington 20 Carolina 16

P.S. Watch this week for our announcement of the SoBo Lockdown Challenge, which will allow you to win a cool prize, like your favorite NFL team hat.

Faceoff: AFC South

By Nate Sandstrom and Mark Goldman

Last year, the AFC South was one of two divisions in football to have each team finish .500 or better and send three teams to the playoffs. This year, the reward for last season's success is that they face the second-, third-, eighth- and tenth-most difficult schedules; however, each team returns most of their core players.

This week, our special guest is Zack Sopradi, a Madden addict who is an Indiana-born, lifelong Colts fan (sorry if "Indiana-born, lifelong Colts fan" phrase bothers you Baltimore). Zack has the following questions about this year's AFC South race:

1) Can the AFC South send three teams to the playoffs again?

Nate says:

There is certainly enough talent in this division for its team to claim both wild card spots. But as mentioned above the difficult schedule (including six games against each other, four against the NFC North, four against AFC North) will be an obstacle.

The Colts will probably be the Colts and win the division but I can see them losing 5-6 games this year. In Jacksonville, Jerry Porter will not provide the spark in the passing game needs. I was high on rookie DE Quentin Groves before the draft but he struggled in his first start, while first-round pick DE Derrick Harvey has yet to sign. I expect them to be in the range of 7 to 9 wins.

I think the Titans defense will be even better, but I don't expect much improvement from the offense, so I expect a 9-7 finish like last year. I love the Texans as an under-the-radar team this year, who can win 10 games if Andre Johnson stays healthy all year; though they still have run game issues. It will be interesting to see what rookie RB Steve Slaton does after a disappointing senior season.

So will the south send three teams to AFC playoffs this year? Probably not, but if teams like Buffalo, Denver, etc. — who were in a tier below last year — don't catch up then maybe.


Mark says:

Yo-Yo Mr. S! I don’t want to say yes because it seems highly implausible for that to happen in back to back seasons bro, but I look around the AFC and don’t know who is going to step up. If you assume the Colts, Chargers, Pats and Steelers win their divisions, (Sorry, Browns fans, but Mark's not a believer yet) then who takes the wild card spots? Not the Raiders, Chiefs, Dolphins or Ravens (that makes up for it, Browns fans. Wait, do we have Browns fans reading this blog?) That leaves just the Bengals, Browns, Jets, and Broncos and maybe the Bills to push the South for these spots. Now, I don’t think the South’s schedule is that hard considering they get the AFC North, which I believe to be the weakest in the conference. OK, I’ve convinced myself. The answer is indubitably yes.


2) How healthy will Marvin Harrison be this year and how much does his presence on the field matter to the Colts playoff run?

Mark says:

Yo-Yo Mr. S, it's going to be bad. Harrison will be 50 percent healthy and he'll miss exactly five games. What Nate seems to forget is the answer to question #1! This division is no longer the lock for the Colts it once was. They need to be full throttle this year. Seriously, Harrison will probably be fine, but if his knee swells up in week 9 and he has to get it drained and miss 3 weeks, you'd better pray that no other receivers are already down.

Nate says:

I think Harrison will start at least 14 games this year and be a presence. But even if he isn't healthy remember this: Harrison caught 20 passes last year and Indy still managed to finish 13-3. I also look for WR Anthony Gonzalez, he scored 4 TD in the last six games last year, to show improvement.


3) Who will end the season as the Houston Texans starting quarterback?

Nate says:

I think that Sage Rosenfels (disclosure: Iowa State bias) deserves a chance to be a starting quarterback in the NFL, unfortunately for him the only way it happens in Houston is if Matt Schaub gets hurt.

I like Matt Schaub and think he still may turn out to have an OK career. So far this preaseason he is the most accurate passer with 20+ attempts. But consider some of these stats:

• Rosenfels threw 15 TD in seven games last year, trailing only Brady and Romo in TD/gm.
• Over the last two years he's completed 25-31 in the red zone for 14 TD vs. 1 INT.
• He's the anti-David Carr. He's been sacked just 6 times in his last 246 passing plays.

After Houston's investment in Schaub, I know that he will start. And the question is who WILL END THE YEAR as the Texans starting QB, not who SHOULD START IT. Still, my answer to both is Sage. I'll predict Schaub goes down by Week 9 and Rosenfels plays well enough not to lose the job when Schaub is back.

Mark says:

Snap Nate, not even Brett Favre will be missed in GB the way Schaub was missed in Atlanta last year. And while he went on to yawn his way into the hearts of many a Texans fan with his average play, it was his first season in a new system and he'd only been a two-game starter prior to that, dude. I believe with more time to gel with the team, Schaub will show that he is the guy they should have traded for. It takes time to get the right QB in the right place and it is way too early to give up on this one.

As for Rosenfels, sure his numbers slightly edged out Schaub, but this is a factor of what I like to call backup QB inflation. Take Rosenfels's numbers of 15 TDs and 12 INTs (which, mind you, lead to a lower QB rating than Schaub had). If you take these numbers and adjust them for backup QB inflation, you do not get a 40 TD, 27 INT season. I know you can't take any player's numbers from 5 games and extrapolate them out to a full season. However my man, it is especially true for backup QBs, who usually show flashes of potential in spot duy that mysteriously disappear when you remove the term 'backup'.

Up Close and Personal

By Mark Goldman

"Probably to a shark, about the funniest thing is a wounded seal, trying to swim to shore, because where does he think he's going?" - Deep Thoughts by Jack Handy

Watching the way the fans treated Kyle Boller last night reminds me of this curious quote by Jack Handy. I attended the debacle that was Preseason Game #2 against the Vikings and I had pretty good seats up close to the field. In case you missed it, the Ravens successfully stymied the ground attack of the Vikings but their wounded secondary was shredded by Tavaris Jackson and Gus Frerotte. But, as has been the case for as long as I can remember, I don't bother wasting time evaluating the defense. It's going to get the job done in the long run most likely. As usual, the attention was on our offense.

Last night was supposed to be the moment for Troy Smith to seize. He was supposed to stand up and grab the starting job from Kyle Boller's clutch. Instead, rookie Ray Rice was the show stealer. He had a performance that included a 42 yard run on his first carry, a 6 yard TD carry, and 77 yards on 8 attempts. Great for Troy Smith, right? On his big night, he had a ground game going that would set him up for success. And how did he perform? He started the entire first half and completed 3 of 5 for 25 yards and a pick. He ran for 35 - ten yards more than he passed for. Too bad we're not looking for a running back, Troy! It isn't the stats that disappoint me; it is was his inability to make a stand and step up and throw the ball. He had his share of passing plays called, but he only threw the ball 5 times. There must have been a dozen passing plays called and he threw on 5 of them, choosing instead to try and make a play with his feet. Troy Smith is quick, but he's not fast and he's not going to be Michael Vick. He's not going to outrun linebackers or carry a team on his feet.

Now, I'm not here to pile on the guy. He's a second year sixth round pick. I don't expect much from him. In fact, I don't ever expect him to be a true starter for the Ravens. Ever. But that doesn't mean I don't like him and want him to stay on the team a while and hope that he does improve. I'm rational. I'm not going to write the guy off. And that brings me to Boller. Well, actually, it brings me to the fans.

Never mind the fan 3 rows back who was screaming for the ref to add 10 seconds back to the clock before Brett finally turned around and said, "It wasn't a dead ball play, buddy!" I'm talking about the ones that sat silent, cheered a little and groaned mildly here and there during the first half when Troy Smith was giving us his scared performance. The fans that sat content during a first half that saw us trailing 20-7 at halftime. These fans came to life in the second half and loudly booed and jeered Boller's just-as-mediocre performance. Boller looked slightly better than Smith. He chose to go for quick, safe passes. But at least he passed - what a quarterback is supposed to do in the NFL. He was 8-12 for 40 yards and an interception. Nothing to cheer about, I'll give you. But he was out there playing with (and against) scrubs. This is the Ravens. We all know the offense is a joke and it doesn't look any better this year. It's going to take time - and playmakers - to make it look like a real offense some day. My point is this - these fans that booed Boller (and I've never been one to really care whether or not you boo your own team, though it takes real tough times for me to do it) aren't booing wisely. They just see Boller and if he isn't playing like Brady - never mind that nobody else on the team is and Brady might not even play like Brady on this team) - he's going to get booed. Maybe they see him as an extension of Billick and in some shape they're still booing the culture of safe, predictable offense that Billick ingrained in the team. But I just don't see how you boo Boller who plays relatively the same (but with the balls to stand up and throw the ball) as Troy Smith and don't boo Smith who played worse and without confidence in his own passing ability despite a good running game to support him.

If you look online in the Baltimore Sun today, you'll see a poll that asks two questions - who WILL be the starter come week 1 and who SHOULD be the starter week 1? The results: Kyle will be the starter 60% - 40% for. Troy SHOULD be the starter by 52% to 48 %.

Side note - I always love polls like this because they're basically "Who thinks they know better than the coaches?" polls.

Now, I ask these 52% that think Troy should be the starter - WHY? What has he shown you? Give me the stats and show me the plays he's made! The truth is, you can't. You can only say, "Well, we've seen the Boller show before." And sure, I get that. But you're wrong. Boller is the better QUARTERBACK! He gives us the better shot to win. So when I hear you booing the better quarterback on a team that isn't going to have a good offense no matter which QB they start, I ask you, you wounded psyche of a fan - where do you think you're going with your booing? Deep thoughts, indeed.

Around the nation's college teams — Part II

By Nate Sandstrom

Alabama Crimson Tide
(7-6 in 2007; 7 returning starters on offense, 6 on defense)
(Predicted SEC West finish — Phil Steele: 3; Athlon: 3; Lindy's: 3; overall average 3)



Nick Saban's first year as Alabama's head coach was a disappointment to many in Tuscaloosa. After a 3-0 start they lost six of the next nine before edging a mediocre Colorado team in the Independence Bowl to get above .500.

Perhaps more disappointing was that the Tide was just a few plays away from playing in a New Year's Day bowl. All six of their losses came by a touchdown or less, including a 41-34 loss to eventual national champ LSU after a costly fumble in the game's final minutes. They were also about to pull ahead of Mississippi State 16-3 before the Bulldogs returned an INT for 100 yards and a 10-9 lead. They eventually won 17-12.

Senior QB John Parker Wilson (pictured above) is hoping to clean up the turnover problems and turn some of those close losses into wins this year. Wilson has thrown for more than 5,500 yards the last two seasons and is looking forward to working with the nation's top wide receiver recruit, Julio Jones (see highlight reel at left). Of course the bad news is that Jones has to step in for departed DJ Hall, who topped 1,000 yards receiving the past two years.

Alabama will also hope to have a 1,000-yard rusher in sophomore Terry Grant. Grant ran for 891 yards last season before missing the loss at Auburn and the bowl game because of a hip injury. Saban says that he has looked good in camp thus far. Grant will also be running behind an offensive line that returns four starters and the tight end.

The Tide returns six defensive starters on a defense that lacks standouts outside of senior FS Rashad Johnson. Sophomore Rolando McClain will be back in the linebacking corps after a freshman season that saw him make 75 tackles and intercept two passes. Expect improvement this year, and a greater leadership role.

However, it will likely be the defense and road games at Georgia, Tennessee and LSU that keeps this team in the middle of the pack in the SEC West, behind Auburn and LSU.

Faceoff — Fantasy football edition

By Nate Sandtrom and Mark Goldman

Hello everyone and welcome to the first edition of the weekly "Faceoff" between Nate and Mark. Each week, a special guest will ask them three football-related questions and debate shall ensue.

Nate is 10 year vet of fantasy football who boasts 4 championships and regularly participates in multiple leagues per year. He’s a Wikipedia of sports statistics and when he doesn’t know for sure, he’s great at making up an answer and sticking to it.

Mark is an avid non-fantasy participant who regularly mocks fantasy ballers with such taunts as “Fantasize this!” and “I drafted your mom.” But because he’s more of a know-it-all than a man of his convictions, he’s glad to answer questions on a subject of which he has no authority.

This week's guest questioner is Paul Bangle, coach of defending Maryland 1A/2A boys golf champion Liberty High School. Bangle's not only adept at taking on the links, he has a few Fantasy Football titles to his name as well. Here are the topics he's thinking about as Fantasy Football draft dates approach:

Q: Who are your top 3 defensive team choices?

Nate's answer:

Team defenses are always hard to predict fantasy-wise. Takeaways can fluctuate greatly from year-to-year, and two injured players can turn some defenses upside down.

One of the first things I look at is strength of schedule, and that makes the New England Patriots and San Diego Chargers the two best-bet fantasy defenses this year. Both teams' schedules feature opponents a combined 40 games or more below .500 in 2007.

In addition both the Patriots and Chargers have offenses that will rarely go three and out, thus winning the field position war and limiting scoring chances.

The defenses aren't too shabby production-wise either. The Bolts led the league with 48 takeaways, were fifth in sacks and second in scores.

The Pats meanwhile have finished in the top 10 fantasy defenses six of the past seven years, according to Fantasy Football Index. They are aging and the secondary lacks depth, but the soft schedule will break in their favor.

The Minnesota Vikings, who've scored 15 defensive TD's the past two season are probably the choice for #3, especially with the addition of DE Jared Allen.

I'd also like to throw in a sleeper in the Seattle Seahawks. They get to play six against the NFC West and four against the AFC East. At Qwest Field they held half their opponents without a TD; although they had their down moments on the road, including allowing 33 in a loss at Cleveland. Rookie DE Lawrence Jackson adds much raw talent to the D-line.

Mark's answer:

Surprise surprise – I’m going Ravens. They were horrible last year. For two reasons – the loss of Trevor Pryce and the loss of Samari Rolle/Chris McAlister. The season prior the Ravens had 60 sacks, 21 picks and were +17 in turnover ratio. They were hands down fantasy gold. Last year, when the train derailed it was all because the secondary was nonexistent. This year, the Ravens picked up Frank Walker and Fabian Washington as backups. I expect Washington, a former first round pick from only 3 years ago, to supplant Rolle. This year’s Ravens will be a lot closer to the 2006 unit than last year’s mess.

Second – and this is in no particular order – I’m going Skins (we don’t have editors here at Sobo, so don’t accuse me of trying to boost local readership). The addition of Jason Taylor to an already stout unit is a coup. I expect this to be a 45-sack team. Combine that with a tight secondary (note the common denominator: both Skins and Ravens have a Landry at Safety – Dawan for the Ravens and LaRon on the Skins) and you can expect more turnovers caused by pressure to dump the ball off. Sure, they’ve got a tough schedule as the Natrix points out, but who knows how that will shake out?

Finally, I’m going to go with the Jaguars. They were a 37-sack team last year before they made it a priority this year in the draft to get more pass rushers. They’ve clearly made a decision that they are going to attack on defense. But they have the players in the secondary to back that up. They had 20 picks last year and their opponents had only 27 minutes time of possession, so that will limit the scoring chances. You may want to have a decent back up (may I suggest Green Bay) lined up for the weeks the Jags face the Colts.


Q: Which rookie is most likely to break through as a fantasy stud this season?

Nate's answer:

The answer is probably whichever rookie running back gets the ball the most, especially in end zone situations. I'll predict that will be Detroit Lions RB Kevin Smith, who may have supplanted Tatum Bell as the starter.

Smith was a beast at Central Florida last year, rushing for more than 2,500 yards and 30 TD, including 149 and 2 TD's in a near upset of Texas.

Mark's answer:

I like Rashard Mendenhall. He’s a prototypical NFL running back drafted into a town that historically likes to run the ball. What I like is that the team already has Willie Parker to move the ball. The fact that they added Mendenhall tells you they’re looking for someone to pound it in (even though Parker has a nose for the end zone). Rookie #2 running backs can blow up in your face if you count on them to carry your team, but as a late round pick, this has a high potential.

Q: Who is this year's flop player at QB, WR, and RB?

Nate's answer:

Many people attributed Ben Roethlisberger's re-emergence last year to being a year removed from his motorcycle accident. I attribute it more to a soft schedule that the Steelers won't face this year.

Want another fun stat (from Fantasy Football Index)? He's been sacked once every 10.4 pass plays the past two years — more than David Carr!

Is Larry Johnson ranked high enough to be considered a bust? I'll bet he'll go in the top two rounds in many leagues, so I think he would qualify. After the retirement of Willie Roaf and Will Shields, his production dropped severely from 2006 to 2007. He lost yards one out of every six carries, worst in the league. And don't expect the Chiefs' passing game to keep teams on their heels.

Braylon Edwards will probably have a good year, and I was going to say him even before the whole barefoot incident. However, he will not go for 1,289 yards and 16 TDs again. Like other AFC North teams, the Browns have a brutal schedule. I also just feel like last year was one of those seasons where everything went right for Cleveland, and that rarely happens in back-to-back campaigns.

Mark’s Answer:

QB: Tony Romo – his decline in the second half of the season is not just the wishful thinking of haters. This is still the guy that threw 5 picks against the Bills last year. Lord help him if TO goes down. Odds are he’ll have a good year, but there’s a good chance he comes down to earth as defenses catch up to him and his own wing-it style gets him in trouble.

RB: Willis McGahee – if you’re not a follower of the Ravens and you just look at a fantasy guide, you’ll see a guy that ran for 1200 yards and had some TDs, a solid 2nd RB. But he’s barely been in training camp, didn’t attend off season OTA’s, and just had his knee scoped (a decision he made without consulting the team). All the reports in Baltimore media point to a spoiled princess who doesn’t have the desire to play.

WR: Steve Smith – he’s going to miss the first two games of the season thanks to a fight with his teammate. Plus, he doesn’t have much to expect from his QB. His head clearly isn’t in the right place and you have to wonder how he’ll react when he only gets one catch in week 5.

Going around the nation's college teams — Part I

By Nate Sandstrom

Most years I have my college season picks basically done by the end of the July. But due to my recent marriage I'm a little behind on getting caught up on my college previews. As I go through them over the next three weeks in the run-up to the season, I'll try to give you a sense of where all I-A teams are stacking up with the prognosticators, starting with Air Force tonight with more to follow the rest of the week. Go to Stassen if you want an easy-to-read chart of who's picking who where.

Publication abbreviations for this series:
PS: Phil Steele
ATH: Athlon
LN: Lindy's

Air Force Falcons
(9-4 in 2007; 3 returning starters on offense, 5 on defense)
(Predicted MWC finish — PS: 7; ATH: 6; LN: 6; overall average 6)



New Head Coach Troy Calhoun (above) got the Falcons off to a quick start last year after Air Force pulled upsets against Utah and TCU on their way to a 3-0 start. They struggled for a stretch afterward, but finished strong at 9-4 with a near upset of Cal in the Armed Forces Bowl.

The consensus seems to be that Air Force is unlikely to match last year's win total. They lose more than half their lettermen, their top six rushers, top two receivers, their QB and four of their top five tacklers.

Three freshman made the two-deep depth chart, and it looks like inexperienced senior Shea Smith will take over behind center.

The one area that could be a strength is the DL, where all three starters return to lead a rush defense that finished in the middle of the MWC with 3.45 ypc. But it looks like Coach Calhoun will have to work some magic to bring Air Force back to a bowl game.

Federal rule change results in chaos for fans used to taking the bus to FedEx

By Nate Sandstrom

For those traveling to FedEx Field this year, they no longer have the buses that run from the Landover Metro to the stadium for $6. The MTA bus service to Ravens games (and apparently many other teams) is also affected as new federal guidelines now prohibit government agencies (like Metro, the Maryland Transit Administration) from offering the service when private companies also to do so.

I'm trying to find a news article that explains this all, but I remember reading about it early this spring. My recollection is that private companies argued that it was unfair that public entities were subsidizing the cost of transporting people to stadiums and made it impossible for them offer competitive rates.

Sounds fair enough, but here's the net effect: The Redskins said in a press release they looked into offering the service through a private company and the $6 fee would increase to $20. The 'Skins decided not to bother at that point. I'm not sure what the Ravens are doing.

So now you either have to start driving — further clogging the roads, spewing more CO2 in the air and burning more gasoline — or take the Metro Blue Line to the Morgan Boulevard station and walk (that's what I did).

Last night, for a preseason game, the trains were packed, kids were crying and there was much confusion. I guarantee this will be a disaster on Sept. 14.

Some helpful tips from my experience:

• Leave early.

• It took about 20 minutes to walk to the stadium once I reached the stop; it could've been quicker but the sidewalks are not built to handle the amount of foot traffic the games draw.

• Some guys were trying to sell water for like $4 a bottle right outside the stop, but there are many people selling for $1 a bottle along the way. No one was selling food, but one couple was selling Bud and Bud Light from their front yard for $3 each or two for $5. Don't know how long 'til police shut that down.

• If you go from New Carrollton, use the bathroom there. You won't see one again until the Port-A-Potties outside the stadium.

24-0 anyone?

By Nate Sandstrom

You can usually count me among the skeptical end of Redskins fans, but I'm very optimistic about this year. Although most NFL prognosticators are picking the 'Skins to finish last in the NFC East, (their Vegas over/under win total is 7.5) I'm optimistic they will be in the race for the division title in December.

Yes, there's a new HC, OC and DC and new systems. But player continuity counts in this league (sorry Jets), and nearly everyone is back from last year's playoff team. I'll get more into actual predictions later this month, but after being at Fed Ex Field for the preseason home opener last night (a 17-14 win), let me tell you what I'm most excited about:

• Jason Taylor will have offensive lines worried. Buffalo was flagged twice for false starts early in the game yesterday, including on a third-and-long when the prospect of blocking Taylor and Marcus Washington had the Bills right side spooked.

• Jason Campbell has completed 80 percent of his passes in the first two preseason games. Although many people are worried about Campbell learning a new offense, it's about the eighth time he's done it in nine years so he considers it part of training camp. With some added size in the receiving corps in Malcolm Kelly teams will also not be able to double Cooley as much and he shut cut down on the turnovers that cost the 'Skins in the red zone so often last year.

I know preseason game don't count for anything, but I'd rather win them then lose. The starters were mostly sharp last night and it was nice to see Ladell Betts back in the end zone. The backups were OK; #4 RB Marcus Mason racked up 80 yards on 16 carries but fumbled the opening kickoff and was stuffed twice on the one-yard-line on a drive that would have put Washington up 24-14.

Despite that, Washington is 2-0 in the preseason; and with just three more preseason victories, a perfect regular season and a Super Bowl title they can be history's first 24-0 team:)