Mark's Jesup Lockdown

I'm on a 6-0 streak right now!
With the season coming to a close and coaches looking to make statements, I like scores to get run up, so I like the favorites today. More NFL picks to follow tomorrow.
Florida (-16.5) at Florida State
USC (-31.5) vs. Notre Dame
Upset Special: Virginia (+260) @ Va Tech

Congrats, Ball State

Congratulations to Ball State, who is 4 minutes from heading to the MAC Championship at 12-0. I'm not sure whether this guy is serious about them being a Rose Bowl team — because they aren't better than Penn State — but you have to feel bad for them for not getting a shot at a bowl bigger than the Motor City Bowl.

I think they'd fare much better than Hawaii did against Georgia last year in the Sugar Bowl, although they are not the caliber of 2006 Boise State.

They should beat Buffalo and either Wisconsin or Minnesota, whichever they play in a Bowl Game, and finish 14-0.

I wonder if they would fit into President-elect Obama's proposed eight-team playoff system? Their best wins are Navy and Central Michigan, but so they can't be considered top 8. But they could be considered a top 16 team if they were a 16-team tourney.

Say they get a 14-seed and have the chance to lose in the first round to someone like Texas; would that be a more rewarding season than finishing 14-0? Open for comments.

--Nate

What just happened?

The Raiders fired Lane Kiffin for Tom Cable so Jim Fassell could write love letters to Al Davis? The Vols fired Phil Fulmer to hire Lane Kiffin? What just happened?

--Nate

Lockdown, late edition

Never take a game to get one back; except now when I'm tkaing the Niners while I can still get +9.5 at Dallas. Injured Terrence Newman? All right!

--Nate

Lockdown: Week 13 quick hit

By Nate Sandstrom

It's a quick version tonight that will feature more explanation depending on how early I can get up tomorrow.

Illinois (-3) at Northwestern

It's been an up and down year for the Illini, who beat Iowa and took Missouri to the end, yet lost to Western Michigan and just got past UL-Lafayette. But Illinois-Northwestern means more than the battle for Sweet Sioux this year — Illinois needs a win for bowl eligibility. The more desperate team gets this one.

Pick: Illinois 31 Northwestern 21

Upset Special: Tampa Bay at Detroit (+290)

There's been only one winless team in NFL history, the 0-14 Buccaneers. So wouldn't it be fitting if they were to provide the Lions with their first win of the season?

Not that that fact is anything to make a bet on, but I actually like the improvement the Lions offense has shown over the past month. The Bucs meanwhile struggled to get a road win at Kansas City two weeks ago and I'm banking on them looking past another inferior opponent.

Pick: Detroit 28 Tampa Bay 24

Seven questions/thoughts/predictions

By Mark Goldman
Did Jim Fassel’s letter to Al Davis include a “Do you like me too? Check Yes or No” section?

You can email General Mangers? Why didn’t someone tell me this before?! I can’t wait to forward Ozzie the next time someone sends me an “Air Force One has been renamed The Soul Plane” email. (by the way, doesn't Savage look like a "special" guy who won some sort of "fan for a day" prize in that picture?)

Marvin Lewis is a bad coach. I thought for sure he’d be good and it appeared for a while that he’d turned the Bungles around, but I think he was just benefiting from some elite talent coming together at the right time. Kicking the field goal when you’re down 13 with six minutes to go and you’re inside the 10? Bad call. He doesn’t get any help from the fact that the front office there is out of their minds. That said, I don’t expect him to be fired this offseason.

We will never see an official 85 jersey that reads “OchoCinco.” Not because the NFL won’t allow it, but because the Bengals will trade Chad this offseason. Possibly to the Ravens for McCalister. And no way is Mason giving up his 85. It’s very possible that we see the name “OchoCinco” stitched above, say, 87. Now that would be awesome! Also, are the Bengals willing to admit they are complete morons for not taking Dan Snyder’s offer of two first round picks for Chad?

The Andy Reid/Donovan McNabb era is coming to a close. I’ve always felt that Philly didn’t appreciate what they had in McNabb. That he might not have been Tom Brady, but a quality, reliable QB is a blessing in the NFL. And four straight NFC championship games? What more can you ask for? I think Westbrook is going to rapidly decline soon as all RBs eventually do. I think McNabb will be out of town after this season. I think Andy Reid’s offense is going to struggle unless Kolb is extremely accurate and can deal with the pressure of no assistance from a running game?

I think there’s no way Polamalu isn’t the Defensive Player of the Year.

I think this is the funniest commercial I’ve seen in a while.

Early lockdown

I've taken a beating the past two weeks in the NFL (1-3), but I just have to document that I have the Steelers rolling over a half-strength Bengals team.

Pick: Pittsburgh 35 Cincinnati 10

--Nate

Screw you, Cavalier

Not much new on the blog tonight because my Internet service has su-uh-ucked for most of the night. I have this weird problem where it will work fine for a while then other times it will take like 10 minutes to load a page. I called tonight about the problem but by the time I was on hold for 20 minutes it started working again. Bastards.

--Nate

Top 25 FBS Rankings: Nov. 17

By Nate Sandstrom

So, this past weekend may go down as one of the most uneventful ones in the history of November college football. There's virtually no change in the Top 25 in any of the major polls, especially at the top.

Probably the most eventful part of the weekend was ACC action. Boston College upset Florida State in their hideous all-black uniforms, keeping the Eagles' and Terps' (who converted a fourth-down late in the game to knock off UNC) hopes of winning the ACC Atlantic alive. Four teams can still win the division, and they all play each other this Saturday. Florida State (4-3 ACC) is at Maryland (4-2 ACC) and Wake Forest (4-3 ACC) takes on Boston College (3-3 ACC). Maryland can clinch with a win and Boston College loss; Wake can clinch with a win and a Maryland loss; if Maryland and Boston College both win they will play next week for the title.

In the Coastal, Miami took the division lead at 4-2, though everyone else but Duke is either 4-3 or 3-3 so there's much to be decided here.

I'll have more on the conference races on Wednesday.

Meanwhile, my Top 25 ballot this week.

Team (W-L, last week)
1. Texas Tech (10-0, 1). My top team, even though Coach Leach is still playing the underdog.
2. Alabama (11-0, 2). Has there been a quieter run to #1 in the BCS by any other team ever?
3. Florida (9-1, 3). If not for illegal blocked XP against Miss, they are #1.
4. Texas (10-1, 4). At least the computers like them better than Florida.
5. Oklahoma (9-1, 5). Will wins over TT and OSU vault them up BCS rankings? Probably.
6. USC (9-1, 6). Can you go to the title game without winning your conference? Ask Georgia.
7. Penn State (10-1, 7). A big win over Spartans would go a long way to finishing in Top 5.
8. Oklahoma St. (9-2, 8). Think these guys can't wait to face Oklahoma in two weeks?
9. Ohio State (9-2, 9). OSU tries to break largest margin win over UM this week (38-0, 1934).
10. Utah (11-0, 10). Just needs win vs. BYU and BCS bid is theirs.
11. Boise State (10-0, 12). Bet Boise would love a shot at the Utes.
12. Missouri (9-2, 13). Lucky they play in Big 12 North, unlucky to play South winner in Dec.
13. Ball State (10-0, 15). I think Cards could play with some of these teams above them.
14. TCU (9-2, 16). Oh, to have the last 5:00 of that Utah game back.
15. Georgia (9-2, 11). Fortunate to be 9-2.
16. LSU (7-3, 14). Even down 31-3, you had to know they'd come back.
17. Michigan St. (9-2, 19). Penn State game will define their season.
18. Oregon St. (7-3, 22). Really wish the first two were exhibition games.
19. Cincinnati (8-2, 21). Quietly having one of the best storybook seasons.
20. Pitt (7-2, 24). Can Pitt avoid any more stinkers this year?
21. BYU (10-1, 23). Nice win over Air Force on Saturday.
22. Iowa (7-4, 25). Still looking for New Year's bowl bid.
23. Miami (7-3, NR). Welcome back 'Canes; now can you stay in the rankings?
24. Vanderbilt (6-4, NR). Good chance to rebound from mid-season swoon.
25. Oregon (8-3, NR). Can still finish with 10 wins despite injury-plagued year.

Lokdown: Stab in the dark version

By Nate Sandstrom

We all know that I tend to prefer picking college games, but a jam-packed few days leading up to Saturday didn't give me time to run the numbers. That leads me to today, where I'm going totally against the numbers and purely on my gut. A sure recipe for 0-3? We'll see.

Minnesota (+5) at Tampa Bay

Minnesota is 1-3 on the road, while Tampa is 4-0 at home. Tampa is 9-4 ATS in their last 13 home games, Minnesota is 3-9 ATS in their last 12 overall, including 0-3 ATS on grass.

But I feel like last week was a season momentum-changing win for the Vikes, who will be able to contain Tampa's rush attack.

Pick: Minnesota 20 Tampa Bay 16

San Diego (+5) at Pittsburgh

The Chargers defense has been nothing but horrible this year, and the Chargers haven't won in Pittsburgh since the '94 AFC Championship Game. They also should have lost at home to Kansas City.

But as long as Awfulsburger is QB for the Steelers throwing ducks with a bum shoulder, I'll take San Diego's turnover-creating defense.

Pick: San Diego 30 Pittsburgh 24

Tennessee at Jacksonville (+3)

Tennessee is 8-1 ATS this year, while Jacksonville is 3-6 ATS. They are 0-4 ATS at home this year, and 1-8 ATS their last nine on grass. If you remember back to Week 1, I took the Titans +3 as home dogs against the Jags for a lockdown win.

This week, I'm taking the Jags as the three-point home dog, and not just because I like three-point home dogs. The Jags finally outrushed an opponent by more than 50 yards for the first time since September, so I'm looking for them to continue that trend.

Pick: Jacksonville 17 Tennessee 16

Week 11

By Mark Goldman

Lock the following up:

Sand Diego (+5.5) at Pittsburgh - This line has moved 2 points since opening! Free points courtesy of the morons (SoBo Football included!) across the country that think they know what they're doing. I know San Diego hasn't looked great all year, but now's the time for them to turn it on. And R-berger hasn't looked so hot lately. The Chargers promoted Ron Riviera to D-Coordinator and the word is he's going to bring the pressure back to their lackluster D. Take the points.

Tennessee (-3) at Jacksonville - Everyone seems to think this is the place the Titans stumble. Not me. Jacksonville is on the verge of a free fall and the Titans' defense is going to eat up the Jags' offense. Take the team that is 8-1 ATS and give up only 3 points.

Arizona (-3) at Seattle - Seattle's giving up 25 ppg and Arizona is scoring 29. Meanwhile, Seattle is only scoring 18. Arizona has won all its games by margins of 5, 21, 6, 24, 21, 10. Giving up three doesn't make me nervous.


CALM DOWN, BALTIMORE!
Yes, Flacco looks for real. Yes, the offense has been more fun to watch than the past ten years combined. Yes, Ray Lewis looks like a man playing for a $40 Million contract! But let's not forget who we've beaten and to whom we have lost. We've played three contenders and lost to all of them. All our wins have come against second and third tier teams. I know, you have to win those games in order to be a legit team. But you also have to find a way to beat half of the big games you play. Coming up, the Ravens have the NFC East and Pittsburgh. To make the playoffs, the Ravens have to win at least 4 of the next 7 games. I expect them to do it. But before you go printing your playoff tickets, just remember that the team has had 3 big tests and failed them all.

That said, the Ravens are getting 7 points today! I didn't want to gynx it and make that a lock, but dear lord! 7 points! Baltimore has lost three games. Two of them were only by 3 each! And that was against the Titans and the Steelers. 7 points!

Post-Week 10 Power Ratings

My explanationless power rankings are on the sidebar and below.

1. Tennessee
2. N.Y. Giants
3. Pittsburgh
4. Carolina
5. New England
6. Baltimore
7. Washington
8. N.Y. Jets
9. Tampa Bay
10. Atlanta
11. Arizona
12. Philadelphia
13. Miami
14. Buffalo
15. Chicago
16. Green Bay
17. Dallas
18. New Orleans
19. Indianapolis
20. Jacksonville
21. Denver
22. San Diego
23. Minnesota
24. Cleveland
25. Seattle
26. Houston
27. San Francisco
28. St. Louis
29. Oakland
30. Kansas City
31. Cincinnati
32. Detroit

Elsewhere, here are ESPN's, Fox Sport's, Sportsline's.

Off to Wells for me. Buy one bottle of wine get one 1/2 off if you're interested.

--Nate

Playoffs!

By Nate Sandstrom

Over the next two days, 64 high school football teams across the state of Maryland will take the field in a quest for a trip to M&T Bank Stadium on the first Saturday in December and the chance to take home one of four different state titles (Class 1A, 2A, 3A and 4A).

Inside those quests are plenty of intrigue as well. D.C. and Baltimore-area schools battle for bragging rights over which region is best, while county foes square-off in rematches of tight regular season contests.

River Hill, Dunbar, Quince Orchard and Damascus are all in and looking to defend their respective championships of last season. Eastern Tech and Arundel are also back in the tournament looking for the titles they came oh so close to capturing last season.

Despite the dreary rain and cold today tomorrow should be good football weather, with partly cloudy skies and temperatures in the mid-60s if you're looking for some football to catch live. A run down on some games of note:

# = Max Preps state ranking, team, (County, team record and seed)

Class 4A
Friday 7 p.m.
• Wootton (Montgomery, 7-3, 3S) at #8 Quince Orchard (Montgomery, 9-1, 2S). Quince Orchard opens their title defense by facing-off against their season-opening opponent, Wootton. That one was a close contest, with the Cougars winning on the road 26-21. Quince Orchard also features a top-15 CB in Maryland recruit Travis Hawkins. They also have top-flight recruit DE Jason Ankrah. Wootton is riding a five-game win streak, but will need some big plays to pull an upset here.

Class 3A
Friday, 7 p.m.
• Damascus (Frederick, 7-3, 4W) at #16 Seneca Valley (Montgomery, 10-0, 1W). The only undefeated team in Class 3A will host the defending state champion in this strong first-round battle. Seneca Valley prevailed in a match-up of these team on Oct. 24 13-7 as Damascus' homecoming opponent. Seneca Valley scored on the first two possession of the game but had to hold off a late Damascus rally. The Screaming Eagles D has posted six shoutouts this season.

Class 2A
Friday, 7 p.m.
• #20 Gwynn Park (Pricne George's, 8-2, 4S) at #2 River Hill (Howard, 10-0, 1S). Hard to know who is going to complain about this draw more. In the talented 2A South region, Gwynn Park barely made the tourney at all despite topping #11 Dunbar in Baltimore in the season opener, shut-out state qualifier Friendly and took #18 Urbana to overtime before losing. All this and they get a team that has won 24 straight games since falling in the 2006 3A state title game to Friendly. Players to note include DT Raynard Randolph.

Not that River Hill is eager to see Gwynn Park in the first round. The Hawks have outscored opponents 464-28 this season and are widely-recognized as the best public school team in the state. However, some may question their strength of schedule. They've played just one team that qualfied for the state tourney, defeating #12 Wilde Lake 12-0. Still, the Hawks have a pair of backs already given scholarships to 1-A schools in Michael Campanaro and Malek Redd and combind with their stifling defense led by S/WR Leron Eaddy will still be favorites.

Class 1A
Saturday, 6 p.m.
Reginald Lewis (Baltimore City, 7-3, 2S) vs. W.E.B. DuBois (Baltimore City, 7-3, 3S) at Poly High (Baltimore). The Sun calls this game possibly the most even first-round game in the state; Lewis won the first meeting 6-3. Both defenses allow fewer than 10 ppg.

Also, the Sun faceoff today debates whether private school teams, which recruit, should be allowed to compete in state tournaments. I think the best answer is to have the private school champ take on the winner of a four-team playoff among the public school champs in kind of high school Super Bowl, though I'm sure some would say that would be way too long of a season for the kids. It would certainly hurt basketball at the schools that advance, but I would still like to see it.

2008 FCS playoff run: Part I

By Nate Sandstrom

I'm a bowl system supporter in college football, but as a former resident of Cedar Falls, Iowa, and student at Northern Iowa, I know a bit about the 1-AA (now Football Championship Subdivison under a marketing ploy) playoffs.

You should too. Good players come out of I-AA including guys mentioned in my NFL awards post below like Kurt Warner and Nick Collins.

First, a refresher on the rules: There are eight automatic bids for the tournament that go the champions of the Big Sky, Colonial, MEAC, Missouri Valley, Ohio Valley, Patriot, Southern and Southland.

There are eight other at-large spots that come from those conferences as well as the Great West (where Cal Poly is almost a lock and will have a shot to nab a top seed when they head to Madison in two weeks), the Big South (where Liberty has a long shot at an at-large bid), and the Independents (no one has a chance). The Ivy doesn't really participate, the SWAC has their own title game and the Pioneer and Northeast conferences (think I-A's Sun Belt) have their own kind-of bowl game.

So far, Weber State out of the Big Sky is the only team to lock up a bid. South Carolina State can do so when they visit Morgan State here in Baltimore on Saturday. If Northern Iowa beats Indiana State (should be a blow out) and South Dakota State pulls a minor upset at Southern Illinois, then UNI would clinch the Gateway auto bid.

Here's a good projection breakdown by the Lynchburg News Adavance's Chris Lang.

Other games of note this weekend (FCS rankings, my rankings on sidebar):
• #11 Elon (8-2) at #2 Appalachian St. (8-2). Winner gets auto bid from best conference in FCS football, but a loss could bump Elon out.
• #12 William & Mary (7-2) at #1 James Madison (8-1). William & Mary would virtually lock-up a bid with an upset here.
• South Dakota State (6-4) at #10 Southern Illinois (7-2). Jackrabbits could actually vault past Salukis in playoff contention with a win here.
• #22 Massachusetts (6-4) at #13 New Hampshire (7-2). New Hampshire may need this to keep its tourney streak alive.
• #9 Wofford (7-2) at Samford (5-4). This will not be an easy trip for Wofford, who pursues at-large bid.
• #18 Tennessee State (8-2) at Jacksonville State (7-3). Elimination game in four-way race for OVC title.
• UC-Davis (5-5) at #3 Cal Poly (7-1). Aggies tough schedule makes their record look worst than it is, but Poly should win this game in order to virtually lock-up an at-large bid.

NFL Awards Watch: Nov. 11

By Nate Sandstrom

First, I heard ESPN's Tom Jackson make a crazy comment about Kurt Warner being NFL MVP after last night's poor excuse for a Monday Night Football game. Then, the Cardinals fans standing behind the ESPN set outside the game started chanting MVP.

Huh?

It's a nice comeback story that Kurt Warner is leading the league in pass efficiency, but I don't buy him as an MVP candidate any more than I do Jason Campbell, Philip Rivers or Drew Brees, who all also have nice passing numbers. I consider Offensive Player of the Year the more appropriate award category for Warner, the one-time employee of the grocery store of my teen years, Hy-Vee.

I prefer to nominate a trio of running backs as my leaders in the MVP race in Michael Turner, Clinton Portis and Adrian Peterson, in that order.

Prior to Pittsburgh's demolition of the Washington Redskins, I probably would've designated Portis as the leader, butI've pushed Michael Turner into the lead role in the past two weeks as Atlanta keeps winning. I believe the big performance he put on in Week 1 helped set the tone for the season, and the production from the league's #3 rusher has taken pressure of rookie QB Matt Ryan and allowed him to emerge and contiue gaining confidence.

Speaking of Matt Ryan, he is part of a tight race for Rookie of the Year that includes fellow 1st-round draft pick QB Joe Flacco, Tennessee RB Chris Johnson, Chicago RB Matt Forte, late draft pick and Redskins S Chris Horton and Houston RB Steve Slaton. I'll give Johnson the slightest early lead, but I'm going to defer a full designated leader another week on this one.

In the first week of this feature I designate Green Bay S Nick Collins leader of the race for Defensive Player of the Year after he returned his third INT for a touchdown this season. It initially looked to me like it was the game-winner, but A-Pete was able to get the actual game winner a few minutes later.

Still, Collins, a third full-year starter, is tied for the league lead with five total picks. He's added 41 tackles and 14 pass break-ups to go with it.

Also in the discussion for D-POY is secondary mate Charles Woodson, who also has 5 INT's; Tennessee CB Cortland Finnegan, who has been a leader in the stout Titans secondary; Giants DE Justin Tuck, who has flourished on a revamped New York DL; Minnesota CB Antoine Winfield, who has made big plays while constantly being put out on an island; as well as do-everything Niners LB Patrick Willis.

Heisman Watch: Nov. 11

By Nate Sandstrom

In short:
1. Michael Crabtree, So., WR, Texas Tech.
2. Graham Harrell, Sr., QB, Texas Tech.
3. Colt McCoy, Jr., QB, Texas.
4. Sam Bradford, So., QB, Oklahoma.
5. Scott McKillop, Sr., LB, Pitt.

Down in Lubbock, Texas Tech QB Graham Harrell and WR Michael Crabtree are battling each other in the race for the Heisman. The situation reminds me of New England's Randy Moss/Tom Brady MVP race last year.

I was in the minority in picking Randy Moss, and in this situation I show an apparent previously-unkown-to-me bias against QB's in taking Crabtree over Harrell. Partly I pick the sophomore wideout because I think that amazing TD that beat Texas was more Crabtree's catch than Harell's catch. I also like how he is second in the nation in scoring while playing in much bigger games than the leader, Michigna St. RB Javon Ringer (who has shriveled in the biggest spots).

Meanwhile, Oklahoma QB Sam Bradford and Texas QB Colt McCoy keep the Big 12 South well-represented on my mock ballot. I'm tempted to put Jeremy Maclin, #2 in the nation in all-purpose yards in the 5-slot, but I should probably leave the Big 12 for one slot and will select Pitt LB Scott McKillop, who is #2 in the nation in solo tackles, including 1.4 tackles for loss per game.

Elsewhere, Crabtree is not getting as much love at Heisman Pundit's straw poll or from ESPN's experts. However, ESPN's Rodney Gimore agrees with me in putting Crabtree #1.

Also, don't look now but junior Florida QB Tim Tebow is starting to make a strong run at defending his Heisman-ship from last year.

Hall in, Torrance out; Portis 50-50?

By Nate Sandstrom

In case you haven't heard Clinton Portis is "50-50" to play this Sunday against Dallas, and RB Ladell Betts' status is also uncertain, Coach Zorn says.

Meanwhile, DeAngelo Hall has shown up at Redskins Park and the means key special teams member Leigh Torrence was cut. It is unclear to me why the team didn't place rookie WR Malcolm Kelly on IR as I can't imagine that he would be effective at this point in the season, even if he does play this year.

Why am I not enthused about the 'Skins signing DeAngelo Hall. Stats like this from today's Post:

Hall has 20 interceptions in 65 career games, including three interceptions in eight games this season, and has returned two for touchdowns in his career. He takes risks in coverage, and according to STATS Inc., was susceptible to major breakdowns with the Raiders. Offenses have thrown at Hall 66 times this season, completing 40 passes for 552 yards.

Goo.

FBS Top 25 and the week ahead

By Nate Sandstrom

It looks like the story of the weekend for much of the national media was "Thank God Penn State lost so they are not in the national title game because they are from the Big Ten and therefore suck." They say that they played no one but cream puffs (I guess beating a team that beat USC, Oregon St., by 31 is nothing). On Fox Sports this morning, Craig Shemon was complaining because they "only" fell to seventh (without saying who they would fall behind).

Yeah, Penn State hasn't blown people away in recent weeks, but they are still a good team that can compete with everybody. I'm betting they show that in their bowl game, especially if they draw Oregon State, which controls their own destiny (more on this below).

Meanwhile, I keep Texas Tech in the top spot, mostly because Alabama's early season wins over teams like Clemson and Georgia look less impressive each week. Not that it matters because we essentially have a Final Four over the next month with Oklahoma getting a shot at the Red Raiders and Alabama and Florida now officially slated to meet in the SEC Title Game. With that out of the way, my new Top 25 Poll:

(W-L, previous rank)
1. Texas Tech (10-0, 1). Who was that team wearing TT helmets that held an opponent to 20?
2. Alabama (10-0, 2). Still undefeated, but they've been interesting lately.
3. Florida (8-1, 4). Clear #1 if Tebow converts that 4th&1 vs. Ole Miss.
4. Texas (9-1, 5). Scoreboard watching now.
5. Oklahoma (9-1, 7). Sooners still have great shot at Top 2 spot.
6. USC (8-1, 8). Trojans look for revenge at Stanford this week.
7. Penn State (9-1, 3). Still a top-flight team, whether or not anyone else believes.
8. Oklahoma St. (8-2, 6). Last week was a bad loss for a good young team.
9. Ohio State (8-2, 9). As good as they are now, the season ended at USC.
10. Utah (10-0, 11). Magical kind of season.
11. Georgia (8-2, 10). Why was this team preseason #1?
12. Boise State (9-0, 13). Will benefit in BCS picks because of two years ago, but shouldn't.
13. Missouri (8-2, 14). Should they even bother to show up to Big 12 Title game?
14. LSU (6-3, 15). Jealous much? "We want you back Saban!"
15. Ball State (9-0, 16). Watch them destroy Miami on Tuesday.
16. TCU (9-2, 12). Led against Utah for like 59 minutes on Thursday.
17. South Carolina (7-3, 17). Spurrier heads back to the Swamp. Hope he has a K this time.
18. North Carolina (7-2, 20). Will talk about Coach Davis moving elsewhere derail great season?
19. Michigan State (9-2, 19). Can they ever blow out a team?
20. Florida State (7-2, 25). Most overlooked 7-2 FSU team in years.
21. Cincinnati (7-2, NR). Who's Ben Mauck?
22. Oregon State (6-3, NR). Two of three losses to Top 10 teams.
23. BYU (9-1, NR). Still have a shot to ruin Utes season.
24. Pitt (7-2, NR). Off for a week before heading to Cincy, hosting WV in BCS bid.
25. Iowa (6-4, NR). Four losses by a combined 12 points.


A closer look within the conferences:
SEC -- Florida and Alabama wrapped up their respective divisons this week, but I don't expect either team to suffer from look-aheads. The Gators certainly have the tougher road with a visit from the Ol' Ball Coach this weekend and will have to travel to Tallahassee on the weekend after Thanksgiving.

Alabama gets Miss. State and Auburn at home, although the Tigers will be eager to keep their salvage their season by keeping their win streak going against the Tide.

Georgia beat LSU, and LSU beat South Carolina so they appear to have the 3 and 4 spots for bowl bids in the conference lined up without an upset. I think South Carolina still has a shot at playing on New Year's as long as they beat Clemson.

Meanwhile, an AP article reports witnesses linking SEC smack talk to murder.

Big Ten -- It's a three-team race for the Big Ten BCS bid, although Michigan State seems to have the longest shot as they need not only to top Penn State in East Lansing in two weeks but also have Ohio State lose either at Illinois or vs. Michigan.

The Buckeyes will be looking for revenge in Champaign this weekend, but who knows which version of the offense will show up? Ditto for the Illini, who seem to live and die by how many times Juice Williams gives the ball away.

Penn State just needs to win to take the title, and expect them to do so. Iowa probably now has the inside track for the conference's fourth bowl spot, but they've been so up-and-down recently that they may lose at Minnesota if Eric Decker is healthy for the Gophers.

Big 12 -- The most exciting division in college football sure has plenty of great match-ups left ahead of them. Oklahoma State was officially eliminated this weekend, but they still will have a chance to upset Oklahoma on Nov. 29. That's a week after Oklahoma hosts Texas Tech in a bid to take the division. Meanwhile, the Horns just need to beat Kansas and A&M and hope the other three beat each other.

Meanwhile, Missouri clinches the North with a win this weekend over Iowa State, who has lost eight straight, including their 0-6 conference record.

ACC -- Hard to say this division is any clearer after the past weekend, although I am definitely eyeballing the possibility of being in College Park for Florida State's trip to Maryland in two weekends. No one in the Atlantic is better than 4-2, while no one in the Coastal is better than 3-2, although I think Florida State and North Carolina has emerged as the best team in each respective divison. But we know from this season who is the ACC favorite changes quickly. One thing's for sure, it's not Clemson. How's that coaching change working out? (Hint: they were eliminated from division contention after losing in the Bowden Bowl, er, Florida St. game).

Pac-10 -- USC may be recognized as the best team in the conference, yet is Oregon State who controls its own Rose Bowl destiny. By virtue of the Beavers' win over USC, OSU (5-1 in conference) can get the Rose Bowl bid if they beat Cal at home, win at Arizona and finish the year with a home win in their Civil War with the Ducks. It will be a tough road, but I'll be rooting for them. Remember last year's argument about how Georgia was the best team in the country, even though they didn't win their conference? Wouldn't that be fun to see again.

Meanwhile, if the Trojans have only Stanford, Notre Dame and UCLA left. I know they lost to Stanford last year and UCLA in '06, but I wouldn't be too concerned if I was (though I never could be) a Trojans fan.

Big East -- What an upset by Cincinnati, last weekend, though watching the line all week it looked like some people were certainly betting on it. The win is also significant because it sets up a round-robin like tournament in the last few weeks in the race for the Big East Championship. West Virginia, Pitt and Cincinnati are all 3-1. Pitt is off this week before going to Cincy on the 22nd and hosting W. Virginia on the 29th.

Remember when Rutgers started the season 1-5? Well, they're now 3-2 with a win over Pitt, so they will be hoping the three front-runners fall victim to upsets and they can sneak a share of the title.

Mountain West -- Speaking of great finishes, check out the last two weeks in the Rockies:

First, the standings:
1. Utah 6-0
2. TCU 6-1
3. BYU 5-1
4. Air Force 5-1

Now, the schedule:

This weekend:
BYU at Air Force
Utah at San Diego St.

Next weekend:
Air Force at TCU
BYU at Utah

Check your listings to see if you get Mountain West's network. I've watched two late-night Saturday games on it already.

WAC -- Boise State can officialluy clinch the conference title with a win at Idaho combined with a Nevada loss vs. San Jose State. However, if Nevada holds on, they will host Boise with a chance to keep their bid a live the following week.

Since we mentioned Rutgers' turnaround above, we should probably mention that the team that beat them opening day. Fresno State, once ranked, gave up 472 rushing yards to Nevada last week and fell to 2-3 in conference and 5-4 overall.

Conference USA -- Tulsa had the week off after a disappointing loss at Arkansas ended their perfect season. They have no more time to sulk, as they head to Houston and Marshall, both still alive for CUSA bids in two of their final three.

Marshall has a tougher road to climb after a heart-breaking OT loss at division-leading East Carolina on Saturday. Most of the teams still have three conference games left so there's a lot yet to be decided.

The biggest game this weekend is Tulsa at Houston. A Cougars win would create a three-way tie at the top of CUSA West with Rice joining these two teams at 5-1. Tulsa already beat Rice, who is off this week, so a win here would almost wrap-up division.

MAC -- Ball State continues its attempt to become the first MAC BCS team Tuesday night at Miami. But their real battle is the next two, as they must head to Central Michigan, who also is 5-0 in the MAC West next week. Then they host Western Michigan, which is still technically alive for a MAC West bid at 5-1, but needs help.

In the MAC East things are wide open with Buffalo, Akron and Bowling Green at 3-2 and Temple at 2-3; however, whoever wins this thing isn't likely to beat the West champ.

Sun Belt -- The winner of the conference will probably be decided in two weeks when 4-1 Troy hosts surprising 4-0 Louisiana-Lafayette in two weeks.

Week 10 NFL Lockdown and Miscellaneous Statements

Lock of the week - Green Bay +2.5 at Minnesota. Something is fishy about this line, and that scares me. But with Jared Allen out and the road team being 10-3 against the spread in the last 13, I'll take the team I already thought was better.

Baltimore +1 at Houston. I don't want to gynx this, but Baltimore has quietly become 6-2 against the spread and a decent road team. While Joe Flacco appears to be coming into his own, look for the Ravens to run the ball well today. They've been averaging 150 yards/game and Houston is giving up 126. Meanwhile, Baltimore is only giving up 64. That's a recipe for success. If Rosenfels gives up the ball, this game is over.

Atlanta -1 vs New Orleans. New Orleans' defense blows. I like Atlanta, have all year. Michael Turner and Matt Ryan will have another big day.

Quick Notes:
Joe Flacco is a golden god
The Giants are the #1 team, not the Titans. (I'll be starting my own BCS-type rating system soon for the NFL)
ACC college football stinks.
I'm setting the over/under on Deangelo Hall personal fouls for the rest of the season with the skins at 4.
Ben Roethlesberger will be forced to miss significant playing time this year if they let him start this week. Not that the Colts will do it, but the Steelers should let him rest his arm. If they keep throwing him out there, he's going to dislodge it or worse. Fingers crossed!
Note to Hank Baskett, when the 82 year old ex boyfriend of your fiance is going to be giving her away at the wedding (which will be held at his house!), you might want to reconsider.

Lockdown V. 11.perfect

By Nate Sandstrom

After dropping to the negative side on the $100/game strategy at the end of October, I pulled a perfect 3-0 ATS to the start November. And had it not been for a missed field goal at the end of regulation by Duke, I would have hit the upset special at nearly 3-1 as well.

Here's the updated standings:
Nate: 18-14 (+$260)
Mark: 9-10 (-$200)

Upset special:
Nate: 3-7 (+$340)
Mark: 1-4 (-$190)

Toss-Up
Nate and Mark tied at 1-1

But that's enough bragging, neither Mark or I are feeling great about this weekend. But here's the few winners I got:

Arizona at Washington (under 51)

With these two sputtering offenses and rain in the forecast, I'm going under all the way, even though the total is moving up.

Maybe there's something I don't know, but here's what I do: ASU has been outyardaged in their last five, three times by more than 150. The Huskies meanwhile have been outyardaged in all eight of their miserable games this season, including by the last two when that margin increased to over 300.

Check out Western U.S. Fox Spors Networks for this classic.

Pick: Arizona State 21 Washington 10

New Mexico (-5.5) at UNLV

At a quick glance, UNLV is just a hair from a good season. They got off to a 3-1 start and despite a five-game losing streak lost by just 1 vs. Air Force and 7 at BYU. However, look closer and you'll notice that they've been outyardaged in six of their last eight games, including last week's TCU debacle. The Rebels may be fired up because they need to win out, but redshirt freshman QB Mike Clausen will be making his first start. Take the Lobos and their superior ground game.

Pick: New Mexico 26 UNLV 10

Upset Special:

Marsahall (+250) at East Carolina

On Sept. 7, this pick would have looked mad. Marsahll was fresh off a 5-TD shallacking at Wisconsin while the Pirates had just upset Virginia Tech and blow out West Virginia. But in recent weeks, these teams have gone opposite directions and now they battle for the lead in CUSA East.

The Herd upset the Pirates last year to keep them out of the conference championship, look for it to happen again.

Pick: Marshall 31 East Carolina 21

Yuck!

Just woke up and realized last night wasn't a dream. Skins suck. Skins fans who sell their tickets to Steelers fans suck. I suck.

--Nate

Post-Week 10 rankings in brief

New rankings are on the sidebar. As you can see, I have no problem with Texas Tech leaping Penn State since I have them jumping above Alabama as well.

In I-AA, I'd like to recognize #2 Appalachian State's 10-TD show on Friday against Wofford, who I previously ranked #3. Top-ranked James Madison held ground though by putting a beatdown on Delaware.

Off to MNF tonight! Go Skins!

--Nate

Lockdown: Week 10

By Nate Sandstrom

Alright, finally a Saturday morning where I'm not traveling or working and can put my full attention on lockdown. After a fast start, Mark and I have been losing our shirts lately, so we need to turn it around. Here's to a perfect weekend!

Updated standings:
Nate: 15-14 (-$40)
Mark: 9-10 (-$200)

Upset special:
Nate: 3-6 (+$440)
Mark: 1-4 (-$190)

Toss-Up
Nate and Mark tied at 1-1

Nate's picks:
Florida (-6.5) vs. Georgia

Forget about Georgia stomping on the Gator after last year's game, Florida is simply a better team. They've scored 30 points in every contest except their 26-3 domination of the Canes.

We have to acknowledge that UGa just put up 52 against LSU, yet the Bulldog attack has proven more inconsistent over the year. If you can contain Knowson Moreno, you can contain the offense. Expect the Gators to do just that.

Pick: Florida 35 Georgia 20

Washington at USC (-46)

The Trojans have no class. The Huskies have to talent. Uh-oh! USC just beat the even worse Washington State Cougars 69-0, while Washington was just blown out by Notre Dame.

Not much too watch here but see how little Ty Willingham cares when Pete Carroll passes on first down in the fourth quarter while up by 6 TD's.

Pick: USC 56 Washington 0

New England (+6) at Indianapolis

I've said it since Week 1, the Colts suck. They still have flashes of being the old Colts, but outside of their blowout over the Ravens they have done nothing.

Randy Moss is on the injury report, but he'll play and play well in prime time per usual. Half team is on the injury report in fact, but we all know Belichick is a liar.

My only worry is that Belichick will outsmart himself and not run the ball (see Ravens game plan vs. Colts). Even then, I'll go back to my theory of the Colts sucking.

My pick: New England 26 Indianapolis 17

Upset Special:

Duke (+275) at Wake Forest

Not much of a payoff on this one, but Duke has been good to us here on lockdown, taking down UVa. with the points and beating Vandy outright last week. Unlike the overvalued Dukey basketball team, Blue Devil football seems to be overlooked by the public. They are veteran team with good leadership under new coach David Cutcliffe.

Meanwhile, Wake Forest has imploded since they beat Florida State. They are 1-3 in the last four, with the only victory coming against fellow flop Clemson Tigers.

Pick: Duke 17 Wake Forest 13