Lockdown: Week 5

By Nate Sandstrom

Doesn't it figure that the week where I break through on my upset special (Boise State with the win at +320) I pull an unspectacular 1-3. I will point out that North Carolina was cruising before Yates went out.

At least my pick against Arkansas theory finally paid off. I'm going to that well one more time.

Locks
Arkansas at Texas (-27)

It's rare that I would lay 27 points in a border war game; however, the Longhorns average margin of victory is 37.6. You may say, "Ya, but that was against Florida Atlantic, UTEP and Rice."

I respond: Arkansas beat Western Illinois by four and UL-Monroe by one. They trailed in the fourth quarter in both games. Get ready for a long season, Bobby Petrino.

Pick: Texas 55 Arkansas 13

Virginia at Duke (-7)

Duke hasn't beat Virginia since 1999. They've won two games the previous three years. But junior QB Thaddeus Lewis has guided the Blue Devils to a 2-1 start, posting a 5 TD-o INT ration. UVa's QB's have thrown no touchdowns and five picks.

Pick: Duke 31 Virginia 14

Illinois at Penn State (-15)

I'm not quite sure why Illinois is in the Top 25, other than that they were good last year. At the same time, I'm not sure why Penn State is not in the Top 10.

Both situations should be rectified this week. Penn State has putting up points like it's 1994. They'll be eager to avenge last year's loss to Illinois, a game they could have easily won.

Pick: Penn State 48 Illinois 21

Upset Special

Washington (+400) at Dallas

It will likely be the 'Skins last ever trip to Texas stadium. Why not end it with a major upset? After the opening night disaster against the Giants the burgundy and gold have looked much shaper. I know Dallas has been dominant, but in recent matches it also seems like this is a game that Washington gets more up for.

It's possible Washington will get blown out; Romo will definitely get at least one long pass past the safeties. But when you're getting 4-1 for a 2-1 team playing a divisional game, I call it a good investment.

Pick: Washington 31 Dallas 28

Updated standings for Mark and I:

Lockdown:
Nate: 6-6 (-60)
Mark 5-2 (+280)

Upset Special:
Nate: 1-3 (+20)
Mark: 1-1 (+110)

Toss-Up
Nate leads Mark 1-0

I love it when Tony Romo sucks!

I know there is still plenty of time for the Bills to melt down, but the Bills are getting so many junk TDs I feel like they may actually win this thing. Maybe the Cowboys shouldn't have been so worried about the Patriots.

***********update*********Tuesday

The Cowboys are so f'ing lucky.

--Nate

Lockdown

Well, I took the lead in my picks pool last week going 7-3 in weekend college football action. Here are my locks for the weekend, one for each day. I am not responsible for your mortgage payment. Picking three favorites doesn't bode well.

Rutgers (-15.5) vs. Navy
Rutgers won at Navy 34-0 last year. Navy only beat Temple 30-19 last week, although they did out-yardage the Owls by 166 yards.
The Scarlet Knights should be focused. This game is sandwiched between Buffalo and Norfolk St.
Rutgers 35 Navy 14

Nebraska (-8) at Wake Forest
Nebraska won 31-3 in ’05 meeting, but game was closer than the score (3 defensive TDs on turnovers) and the drop off from injured Wake QB Riley Skinner to Brett Hodges may not be too much.
But Nebraska looked scary good against Nevada, and the Wake defense against an overrated BC squad? Not so much.
Nebraska 41 Wake Forest 21

Dallas (-6) vs. N.Y. Giants
I think Dallas is the most overrated team in the league. This is how little I think of the Giants.
The last two between have been high-scoring affairs, but I foresee defense playing a bigger role in this game. I don’t know how the Giants are going to move the ball without Tiki, who clearly knows everything.
If it matters, I’m going against a trend of the Giants covering in their last three trips to Dallas.
Dallas 20 N.Y. Giants 6

Upset Special
N.C. State (+14.5) at Boston College
Yes, they lost to C. Florida. Yes, they lost Toney Baker and Anthony Hill for the season. But I love former coaches taking on their old team.
Tom O’Brien returns to Alumni Stadium wearing Wolfpack Red, with a team that edged a much better B.C. team on a 34-yd TD pass with eight seconds left last year.
N.C. State’s rush defense got gouged last week, but running the ball is not exactly the Eagles strength.
N.C. State 27 Boston College 24

--Nate Sandstrom