By Nate Sandstrom
We're just a few hours from the kickoff of the 2008 season, and I couldn't be more excited. I'll be interested in seeing how South Carolina's offense comes out of the gate after struggling so badly late last season. Anyway, here's the final installment of my preseason preview, with "Five Bold Predictions."
1) Losing the last two national title games will cost this year's Ohio State team.
If you read my last post, you'll see that I have Clemson, Oklahoma and Ohio State all finishing the regular season with one loss. In the two weeks between Ohio State finishing their regular season and Clemson and Oklahoma playing in their respective conference championship games, I predict there will be a lot of pundits and writers complaining about the prospect of seeing Ohio State lose badly in a title game for the third straight year. I expect that complaint will weigh on voters, and Ohio State will drop from #1 to #3 in the polls after Clemson and Oklahoma each win their conference title games.
After a Big Ten team is leapfrogged by a conference championship for the second time in three years (Florida passed Michigan in '06), the conference will step up efforts to recruit a 12th team in the upcoming offseason. But they will not bend from otherwise finishing the regular season before Thanksgiving.
2) Michigan will be this year's Notre Dame.
Some people will be shocked to see me slating Michigan to finish just 3-9 and last in the Big Ten. But most people probably wouldn't have have believed Notre Dame would finish 3-9 in 2007.
The Wolverines return just 10 starters; they lose their top 2 passers and receivers, top rusher and top four tacklers. Add to that a new coach in Rich Rodriguez (who went just 4-7 his first year at W. Virginia) with a new offense and I smell disaster.
3) Temple will win as many games (including a bowl win) as they have over the past five years.
How often have you seen a team return 22 starters, plus their kicker and punter? How about bringing back 53 of 55 letterman?
At many schools such a scenario would have the students calling for a national title. But when you are one of the NCAA's perennial losers, your goals have to be a little more modest. And the Temple Owls have not gone bowling since 1979. Prior to going 4-8 last year, they won just four games in the previous four years.
I think a favorable schedule and experience will help to get the Owls build off last year's progress. They get back to a bowl for the first time in three decades and exact revenge on Connecticut for a loss they suffered because of a bad call. One of the year's "feel-good" stories.
4) No one will be this year's Hawaii or Boise State, but BYU and Tulsa will come close.
It might not be "bold" to say that no non-BCS Conference team will go undefeated, but it has happened two years in a row. The team I rate with the best chance to make it three straight years is Tulsa, despite the loss of QB Paul Smith.
The Golden Hurricane return nine starters from an offense that scored 576 points in 14 games. The defense was not so good in 2007, but the unit should be adequate against what Phil Steele ranks as the nation's easiest schedule (toughest games vs. Central Florida, at Arkansas). Alas, I have Tulsa being upset in the Conference USA title game in a rematch with UCF.
The other team I predict running the table until its final game is the BYU Cougars. They also return nine starters from a prolific offense, and have just #86-ranked schedule by Steele. However, they have to play Utah on the road, where I am calling for them to be upset and also bounced out of a conference championship (lose tie-breaker to Utah).
5) Western Illinois will pull the opening weekend stunner by going to Arkansas and pulling out the upset for Coach Don Patterson, who is undergoing treatment for tonsillar cancer.
Maybe its a sentimental pick, but I think there is real reason to think this could happen. Arkansas will be playing their first game with Coach Bobby Petrino and more importantly without Darren McFadden, Felix Jones and Peyton Hillis.
W. Illinois was just 6-5 last year, but that was in the quality FCS Missouri Valley conference. They return 20 starters and if they are able to get a couple of takeaways I think they can edge out a win.
There you have it. We will have to see how I fare. Enjoy the season everyone!
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1 comment:
Don't count out Fresno State to be this year's big surprise. If they can survive the first two weeks of the season, they could potentially finish undefeated. That's a big if with Wisconsin visiting in week 2, but that could be a potential upset.
- Dan R
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