Faceoff — Fantasy football edition

By Nate Sandtrom and Mark Goldman

Hello everyone and welcome to the first edition of the weekly "Faceoff" between Nate and Mark. Each week, a special guest will ask them three football-related questions and debate shall ensue.

Nate is 10 year vet of fantasy football who boasts 4 championships and regularly participates in multiple leagues per year. He’s a Wikipedia of sports statistics and when he doesn’t know for sure, he’s great at making up an answer and sticking to it.

Mark is an avid non-fantasy participant who regularly mocks fantasy ballers with such taunts as “Fantasize this!” and “I drafted your mom.” But because he’s more of a know-it-all than a man of his convictions, he’s glad to answer questions on a subject of which he has no authority.

This week's guest questioner is Paul Bangle, coach of defending Maryland 1A/2A boys golf champion Liberty High School. Bangle's not only adept at taking on the links, he has a few Fantasy Football titles to his name as well. Here are the topics he's thinking about as Fantasy Football draft dates approach:

Q: Who are your top 3 defensive team choices?

Nate's answer:

Team defenses are always hard to predict fantasy-wise. Takeaways can fluctuate greatly from year-to-year, and two injured players can turn some defenses upside down.

One of the first things I look at is strength of schedule, and that makes the New England Patriots and San Diego Chargers the two best-bet fantasy defenses this year. Both teams' schedules feature opponents a combined 40 games or more below .500 in 2007.

In addition both the Patriots and Chargers have offenses that will rarely go three and out, thus winning the field position war and limiting scoring chances.

The defenses aren't too shabby production-wise either. The Bolts led the league with 48 takeaways, were fifth in sacks and second in scores.

The Pats meanwhile have finished in the top 10 fantasy defenses six of the past seven years, according to Fantasy Football Index. They are aging and the secondary lacks depth, but the soft schedule will break in their favor.

The Minnesota Vikings, who've scored 15 defensive TD's the past two season are probably the choice for #3, especially with the addition of DE Jared Allen.

I'd also like to throw in a sleeper in the Seattle Seahawks. They get to play six against the NFC West and four against the AFC East. At Qwest Field they held half their opponents without a TD; although they had their down moments on the road, including allowing 33 in a loss at Cleveland. Rookie DE Lawrence Jackson adds much raw talent to the D-line.

Mark's answer:

Surprise surprise – I’m going Ravens. They were horrible last year. For two reasons – the loss of Trevor Pryce and the loss of Samari Rolle/Chris McAlister. The season prior the Ravens had 60 sacks, 21 picks and were +17 in turnover ratio. They were hands down fantasy gold. Last year, when the train derailed it was all because the secondary was nonexistent. This year, the Ravens picked up Frank Walker and Fabian Washington as backups. I expect Washington, a former first round pick from only 3 years ago, to supplant Rolle. This year’s Ravens will be a lot closer to the 2006 unit than last year’s mess.

Second – and this is in no particular order – I’m going Skins (we don’t have editors here at Sobo, so don’t accuse me of trying to boost local readership). The addition of Jason Taylor to an already stout unit is a coup. I expect this to be a 45-sack team. Combine that with a tight secondary (note the common denominator: both Skins and Ravens have a Landry at Safety – Dawan for the Ravens and LaRon on the Skins) and you can expect more turnovers caused by pressure to dump the ball off. Sure, they’ve got a tough schedule as the Natrix points out, but who knows how that will shake out?

Finally, I’m going to go with the Jaguars. They were a 37-sack team last year before they made it a priority this year in the draft to get more pass rushers. They’ve clearly made a decision that they are going to attack on defense. But they have the players in the secondary to back that up. They had 20 picks last year and their opponents had only 27 minutes time of possession, so that will limit the scoring chances. You may want to have a decent back up (may I suggest Green Bay) lined up for the weeks the Jags face the Colts.


Q: Which rookie is most likely to break through as a fantasy stud this season?

Nate's answer:

The answer is probably whichever rookie running back gets the ball the most, especially in end zone situations. I'll predict that will be Detroit Lions RB Kevin Smith, who may have supplanted Tatum Bell as the starter.

Smith was a beast at Central Florida last year, rushing for more than 2,500 yards and 30 TD, including 149 and 2 TD's in a near upset of Texas.

Mark's answer:

I like Rashard Mendenhall. He’s a prototypical NFL running back drafted into a town that historically likes to run the ball. What I like is that the team already has Willie Parker to move the ball. The fact that they added Mendenhall tells you they’re looking for someone to pound it in (even though Parker has a nose for the end zone). Rookie #2 running backs can blow up in your face if you count on them to carry your team, but as a late round pick, this has a high potential.

Q: Who is this year's flop player at QB, WR, and RB?

Nate's answer:

Many people attributed Ben Roethlisberger's re-emergence last year to being a year removed from his motorcycle accident. I attribute it more to a soft schedule that the Steelers won't face this year.

Want another fun stat (from Fantasy Football Index)? He's been sacked once every 10.4 pass plays the past two years — more than David Carr!

Is Larry Johnson ranked high enough to be considered a bust? I'll bet he'll go in the top two rounds in many leagues, so I think he would qualify. After the retirement of Willie Roaf and Will Shields, his production dropped severely from 2006 to 2007. He lost yards one out of every six carries, worst in the league. And don't expect the Chiefs' passing game to keep teams on their heels.

Braylon Edwards will probably have a good year, and I was going to say him even before the whole barefoot incident. However, he will not go for 1,289 yards and 16 TDs again. Like other AFC North teams, the Browns have a brutal schedule. I also just feel like last year was one of those seasons where everything went right for Cleveland, and that rarely happens in back-to-back campaigns.

Mark’s Answer:

QB: Tony Romo – his decline in the second half of the season is not just the wishful thinking of haters. This is still the guy that threw 5 picks against the Bills last year. Lord help him if TO goes down. Odds are he’ll have a good year, but there’s a good chance he comes down to earth as defenses catch up to him and his own wing-it style gets him in trouble.

RB: Willis McGahee – if you’re not a follower of the Ravens and you just look at a fantasy guide, you’ll see a guy that ran for 1200 yards and had some TDs, a solid 2nd RB. But he’s barely been in training camp, didn’t attend off season OTA’s, and just had his knee scoped (a decision he made without consulting the team). All the reports in Baltimore media point to a spoiled princess who doesn’t have the desire to play.

WR: Steve Smith – he’s going to miss the first two games of the season thanks to a fight with his teammate. Plus, he doesn’t have much to expect from his QB. His head clearly isn’t in the right place and you have to wonder how he’ll react when he only gets one catch in week 5.