Lokdown: Stab in the dark version

By Nate Sandstrom

We all know that I tend to prefer picking college games, but a jam-packed few days leading up to Saturday didn't give me time to run the numbers. That leads me to today, where I'm going totally against the numbers and purely on my gut. A sure recipe for 0-3? We'll see.

Minnesota (+5) at Tampa Bay

Minnesota is 1-3 on the road, while Tampa is 4-0 at home. Tampa is 9-4 ATS in their last 13 home games, Minnesota is 3-9 ATS in their last 12 overall, including 0-3 ATS on grass.

But I feel like last week was a season momentum-changing win for the Vikes, who will be able to contain Tampa's rush attack.

Pick: Minnesota 20 Tampa Bay 16

San Diego (+5) at Pittsburgh

The Chargers defense has been nothing but horrible this year, and the Chargers haven't won in Pittsburgh since the '94 AFC Championship Game. They also should have lost at home to Kansas City.

But as long as Awfulsburger is QB for the Steelers throwing ducks with a bum shoulder, I'll take San Diego's turnover-creating defense.

Pick: San Diego 30 Pittsburgh 24

Tennessee at Jacksonville (+3)

Tennessee is 8-1 ATS this year, while Jacksonville is 3-6 ATS. They are 0-4 ATS at home this year, and 1-8 ATS their last nine on grass. If you remember back to Week 1, I took the Titans +3 as home dogs against the Jags for a lockdown win.

This week, I'm taking the Jags as the three-point home dog, and not just because I like three-point home dogs. The Jags finally outrushed an opponent by more than 50 yards for the first time since September, so I'm looking for them to continue that trend.

Pick: Jacksonville 17 Tennessee 16