Lockdown -- Week Six

We came so close to going 3-0 on lockdown last week. But the Rams had to get a TD and 2-point conversion with 13 seconds left to shave the Cards (-3.5) lead to 34-31.

Well, there's always this week.

I had a tough time picking my three games this week, as I eyeballed but ultimately rejected three MAC games. Bowling Green +1 is my favorite, as I think Miami-O may be a bit overrated.

But that's not official. These are:

Saturday:
LSU (-9.5) at Kentucky

Everyone who talks about Kentucky talks about Andre Woodson, but it RB Rafael Little's questionable status that convinced me to move LSU to a "lock."

This is the biggest home game for Kentucky since the days of Tim Couch, but Woodson looked lost last year against the Tigers. He also struggled against the Gamecock's first-tier defense last week. With no Rafael Little to run to outside and keep the Tigers honest, I think this game will be a walk for the Tigers.

Pick: LSU 38 Kentucky 14

Indiana (+3.5) at Michigan State

The Spartans have a new coach, but it's the same old story. Michigan State sprinted out to a hot non-conference start at 4-0, but have tanked their first two Big Ten games, blowing leads in each.

Now they come home to East Lansing as favorites against perennial doormats Indiana. But the Hoosiers are doormats no more. They are 5-1, with their lone loss at Illinois. QB Kellen Lewis and WR James Hardy are going wild. Are the Hoosiers thinking New Year's Day Bowl? Dream a little dream.

I'll call for a typical MSU game, lead early, lose late.

Pick: Indiana 41 Michigan State 31

Sunday:
Tennessee (+3) at Tampa Bay

Two relatively evenly-matched teams play, so the home team is a 3-point favorite My new strategy is take the road dog.

I figure most people pick the home team, because the home team wins more often than not. But I don't think they win as often as they are picked. So I figure the line is set at -3 for the home team, because most people will pick them.

This strategy is not numerically tested, but I point to Carolina (+3) at New Orleans last week as an example of success.

So I'm applying my new unscientific theory to the Titans. I was a big Bucs backer before the season, but their injuries are piling up. Their top two RBs are out and Barrett Ruud and Brian Kelly are questionable.

The Titans don't win pretty, but they keep winning.

Pick: Tennessee 21 Tampa Bay 13

Upset Special:

Iowa State (+16.5/+700) vs. Texas

We dropped back into the red on the upset special last week, as the other team from Iowa played a horribly uninspired game. But how do you fight red? With red and gold!

Cyclones head coach Gene Chizik was the Longhorns D coordinator the last two years, so he know the personnel pretty well.

Still, the Longhorns easily out-talent the 'Clones. Both teams probably have their least-talented squads in several years.

The Cyclones played an inspired game against Iowa and won a game they never should have won. This might be the week that Chizik can get them up to do so again. Besides, we never know which Longhorns will be in jail between now and Saturday.

If ISU pulls this off, we should be in the black for the year at upset special.

Pick: Iowa State 24 Texas 21

--Nate Sandstrom

Mark is out of town, so don't expect any of his bad picks.