Lockdown --Weekend of Oct. 5

If you took Indiana on the money line, you probably had a good weekend. Pulled 1-1-1 on the other games, with a push on the Ravens-Browns over, thanks to Stover's missed field goals.


Friday
Utah (+14.5) at Louisville
A Friday night battle of two disappointing teams. Utah ripped UCLA 44-6, but were blown out at UNLV and Oregon State.

Louisville is another up and down team. They should have beat Kentucky, then came out flat and lost at home to Syracuse.

Louisville's the better team, but they only beat M. Tenn. by 16 and N.C. State by 19. I love the points here.

Louisville 45 Utah 41

Saturday
Missouri (-6) vs. Nebraska

Nebraska has been outyardaged in their last four games, including home games against Ball St. and Iowa St. What do you think Chase Daniel will do to that defense?

Missouri had an offweek to get ready for this game, and I think they will go ahead early; 14-0 at end of the first quarter, 28-7 at half.

Home team has won the last five in this series, don't expect any changes.

Missouri 41 Nebraska 24


Sunday
Arizona (-3.5) at St. Louis

It seems like everywhere I look, people are picking the Rams in this game. Why?

St. Louis is 0-4 ATS, Arizona is 4-0. Perhaps the QB tandem is leading the public to undervalue Arizona. Or maybe they think St. Louis is due? Not without Bulger and Jackson.

No upset here.

Arizona 28 St. Louis 10

Upset Special
Iowa (+9/+285) at Penn State

I know I've said the rule for upset special is a team has to be +10, but this is close enough.

You're bigger question is probably how can you pick Iowa, losers of three straight, including to Iowa St. They've also lost seven straight Big 10 games.

Here's my answer: Penn State's rush defense has been bad, and I believe the Hawkeyes can win a field position game with Albert Young. If the defense gets a takeaway or two, I think they can steal a win here.

Penn State has also been putrid in the red zone. These two teams are 10th and 11th in first downs among Big Ten teams.

Iowa has won the last five in this match-up, including a 6-4 win when they last played in 2004.

Iowa 17 Penn State 13

--Nate Sandstrom