Week 1 Lockdown

Well, I'm 2-0 in my head this weekend, so let's hope that carry's over to actually documented predictions.

1) Houston (-4.5) vs. NY Jets: Call this the steal of the week. I just don't like starting that rookie QB on the road. To me, Sanchez is a lock to be a bust. If you saw last night's USC/OSU game, you know that USC can make even a freshman QB look good. Sanchez just doesn't have the stuff. Let alone the stuff to win his rookie game on the road. And the Texans are only giving up 4.5 at home!? Are you kidding me? Lock it up. Look for Steve Slaton to run right at (and over) Vernon Gholston. The Jets are already missing Shawn Ellis and Calvin Pace. Word is Gholston isn't looking any better under Rex Ryan's tutelage. The Texans will control the game and protect the ball all day and Sanchez will turn it over twice. Houston 24 New York 13

2) Philadelphia (-2.5) at Carolina: This is another line I don't get. I know they're on the road, but I like the Eagles to continue last year's momentum early this year. I think things will fall apart for them later in the year when McCrybaby throws a fit over Vick's playing time. But I am shocked at how little of a distraction Vick has been so far. I didn't expect him to be T.O. redux, but there is no drama going on already. I also expect Carolina to continue their momentum from last year. This regime is getting old. They need new blood in there. Delhomme/Smith/Fox just don't seem invigorated. Not to mention, Philly is 8-3 against the spread in their last 11 NFC games. And 12-5 in their last 17 road games. Gotta like those numbers. Philly 28 Carolina 15

3) Baltimore (-12) vs. Kansas City: I know it's risky to take this big a number and call it a lock, but I love Baltimore and no team has looked more focused and ready to go than the Ravens this preseason. With Kansas City's QB situation, I like the Ravens to feast early and then sit on the ball all day. I hear Cassell is getting the start. Bad move. If he's not mobile, he could be in for a long day. The Ravens have never beaten the Chiefs in Baltimore. That will change and change big today. Ravens 27 Chiefs 9

Upset Special:
I desperately wanted to take the Skins to stun the Giants for this, but if you look at the trends, there's no way I can justify that pick. So I'm taking the Dolphins to top the Falcons. At +110, I'll take an AFC Playoff team over an NFC playoff team. The Dolphins lack the true talent that they Falcons have, but I like the smart coaching staff of Sparano and the safe QB play of Pennington. Coaches and Quarterbacks. Coaches and Quarterbacks. We say it all the time. Miami 21, Atlana 17.