Nate's 2009 NFL Picks: Pack to Have Last Laugh

By Nate Sandstrom

Well, people have been asking me for weeks who I like in the NFL this year and I've finally run through enough depth charts, schedules and other prognastications to come up with the following prediction: The Pack over the Chargers in the Super Bowl.

I'm hardly going out on a limb picking the Chargers to take the AFC (as I do nearly every season) but I'm sure I'll raise eyebrows by calling for a team coming off a 6-10 season to win the Super Bowl. Here's my reasoning:

-- The Packers' 6-10 mark was deceiving as they lost seven games by four points or less! Meanwhile, five of their six wins were by 10+ points. They also outyardaged their opponents by 17 ypg.
-- The Packers will face the #31-rated schedule in the NFL this year, including a soft start that will allow the defense to adjust to new DC Dom Capers' 3-4 scheme.
-- The defense is mostly healthy and has depth and added talent in a pair of first-round picks. Even if new NT Raji misses the opener with his ankle injury, I expect him to make a big impact this year.
-- Ryan Grant was in camp all year instead of worrying about a new contract and I expect him to improve production and help open up things even more for the ultra-talented Aaron Rogers.

So, there's my case for the green and gold, who I've pegged to best their former franchise QB Brett Favre and the Vikings in the NFC Championship in Minneapolis. Then, they should be able to contain Sproles and the Chargers enough to bring the Lombardi back to Green Bay.

Other predictions:
-- The Seattle Seahawks will pull the biggest turnaround in the league this year, improving from 4-12 to 10-6. As long as the offensive line doesn't suffer too many injuries the passing game should be vastly improved with full seasons from Nate Burleson, Deion Branch and new face TJ Houshmandzadeh. New linebacker Aaron Curry should also add good speed to the D creating havoc against both the run and pass.

-- The Denver Broncos will be a total disaster as Coach Josh McRabbit'sFoot learns he is not Bill Belichick. The entire state of Colorado will beg Coach Shanahan to come back as the squad drops from 8-8 to 2-14. Young Josh better at least beat the Chiefs once or use his insider knowledge to upset the Pats or this team may wind up this year's version of last year's Lions.
-- Speaking of the Lions, mark it down that Matt Stafford turns the ball over 15 times before he reaches the 5 TD plateau. Still, the Lions will pull the season's biggest upset when they win at Minnesota on Nov. 15.
-- Speaking of rookie QBs, the New York Jets are my runner-up to Denver for biggest drop in the standings. I have them dropping from 9-7 to 4-12. I don't see what everyone else does in this defense and I think the Ravens defense will do a lot better without Rex Ryan than Ryan will do without the Ravens. Sanchez will be better than Stafford, but will still struggle.
-- I've got the Vikings finishing with the best regular season record; I probably would've had them close to that even without Favre. The defensive line will wreak havoc, the receivers will improve from last year and AP is just awesome. Still, it's the Vikings and just like the Cubs, they always blow it.

That's it. Read below to see where I have your team, then chuckle and watch it all play out. Enjoy the season!

AFC W-L Con Div
1. San Diego 12-4 11-1 5-1
2. New England 12-4 8-4 4-2
3. Indianapolis 11-5 9-3 3-3
4. Pittsburgh 11-5 8-4 4-2
5. Baltimore 10-6 8-4 5-1
6. Houston 9-7 7-5 4-2
7. Tennessee 9-7 6-6 3-3
8. Cincinnati 8-8 7-5 3-3
9. Jacksonville 8-8 6-6 2-4
10. Buffalo 8-8 5-7 2-4
11. Miami 7-9 4-8 3-3
12. Oakland 5-11 4-8 3-3
13. N.Y. Jets 4-12 4-8 3-3
14. Kansas City 4-12 4-8 3-3
15. Cleveland 4-12 3-9 0-6
16. Denver 2-14 2-10 1-5

NFC W-L Con Div
1. Minnesota 13-3 10-2 4-2
2. N.Y. Giants 11-5 7-5 5-1
3. Seattle 10-6 7-5 4-2
4. New Orleans 9-7 8-4 4-2
5. Green Bay 11-5 10-2 4-2
6. Philadelphia 11-5 7-5 3-3
7. Chicago 10-6 8-4 3-3
8. Arizona 9-7 7-5 4-2
9. Carolina 8-8 6-6 2-4
10. Washington 8-8 5-7 1-5
11. Atlanta 7-9 5-7 3-3
12. Dallas 7-9 4-8 3-3
13. Tampa Bay 6-10 5-7 3-3
14. San Francisco 5-11 4-8 3-3
15. St. Louis 3-13 2-10 1-5
16. Detroit 3-13 2-10 1-5

Playoffs Predictions
Wild Card Round:
#6 Houston 37 #3 Indianapolis 35
#4 Pittsburgh 17 #5 Baltimore 9
#6 Philadelphia 31 #3 Seattle 12
#5 Green Bay 41 #4 New Orleans 31

Divisional Round:
#1 San Diego 28 #6 Houston 14
#2 New England 30 #4 Pittsburgh 17
#1 Minnesota 28 #6 Philadelphia 27
#5 Green Bay 34 #2 N.Y. Giants 17

Conference Championships
#1 San Diego 20 #2 New England 17
#5 Green Bay 27 #1 Minnesota 24

Super Bowl
Green Bay 31 San Diego 27