Lockdown: Week 7 or Return of the toss-up

By Nate Sandstrom and Mark Goldman

Mark and I haven't gone head-to-head on a game since Labor Day, but in honor of this year's second Game of the Century, we are going to chime in on this year's Red River Shootout.

Oklahoma (-6.5) vs. Texas

Nate says:

So both teams have stud QB's, are stocked with highly-touted recruits and have blown teams that should be playing in bowl games at the end of the year but are still looking for that signature win that can keep them at #1.

However, go inside the numbers and you will see that Texas' secondary may be vulnerable. The 'Horns have not out-passed an opponent by more than 40 yards this season. Their last five games last year they were out-passed by 130 yards or more!

Skies will be party cloudy and temperatures around 80 degrees today, and that kind of passing weather should prove the difference in a 28-17 Sooners win.

Mark says:

Though the lock of the week seems to be the over in this game, give me Texas (+6.5). Both QBs are playing out of their minds this year, but I always prefer accuracy and there's nothing like a QB who is completing 79% of his passes. These two teams are pretty evenly matched up, both 5-0 with potent offenses and close season stats. So in a big game, give me the more accurate QB and the points. It doesn't hurt that Oklahoma is giving up almost 50 yards per game on the ground more than Texas, who already rushes for 198 yards per game. Nobody is staying on top long this year and watch Oklahoma be the next to fall in the outright loss today.

Now, onto updated standings.

Lockdown:
Nate: 11-8 (+220)
Mark: 6-4 (+160)

Upset Special:
Nate: 2-4 (+320)
Mark: 1-2 (+10)

Toss-Up:
Nate leads 1-0

This week's lockdown:

Nate says:


St. Louis at Washington (-13.5)

This is not a homer pick. Almost everyone I've talked to this week has been scared off laying 13.5, it's a Tom Brady-Patriots' kind of number. But I say it is justified.

The Rams have been outscored by 26 points a game. Their closest loss is a 17-point home loss to Buffalo. So why would they cover this number? Because the man who has led this hapless defense, Jim Haslett, has taken over as interim coach for an 0-4 team?

Last week was the let down spot for Washington, not this week. 'Skins will roll and keep the Rams winless.

Pick: Washington 38 St. Louis 10

N. Y. Giants (-7.5) at Cleveland

For all the credit that Eli Manning has gotten since New York's Super Bowl run last year, it has been the Giants' ability to plug in different running backs and roll up yardage that has truly impressed me.

Now their top-ranked 181-ypg rushing attack heads to Cleveland to take on the #22 rush defense on Monday Night. It's also a match-up of the league's #1 total offense against the #32 total offense. Yes, the Browns are awful. Last year was a combination of flukes and a last place schedule. Plus, Kellen Winslow is in the hospital with an undisclosed illness.

Pick: NY Giants 37 Cleveland 6

Tulsa (-24.5) at SMU

New head coach June Jones has not worked out so well for the 1-5 Mustangs. The heralded offensive guru's new offense has averaged just 323 yards per game. Here the worst part: The SMU "D" has been torched for 479 yards per game. Here's the worser part: Tulsa averages 596 yards per game. The Golden Hurricane, who have won their shootouts by average of 56-25, may get 700 yards tonight.

Pick: Tulsa 63 SMU 27

Arkansas at Auburn (-17.5)

That is not a typo. I'm taking Arkansas.

For those who follow this feature regularly, you'll know that I've picked against Arkansas three weeks in a row and the result for those who listened to me is money in the bank.

However, last week the Hogs played well and the Gators got the ol' back-door cover by running up the score late (remember this is the same team that kicked a field goal as time expired to beat Miami 26-3).

Meanwhile, Auburn is in turmoil after panicing and firing their offensive coordinator this week. Expect Arkansas to take Auburn late into the game before falling short.

Pick: Auburn 14 Arkansas 9

Upset Special: Louisiana Tech (+260) at Hawaii.

Nothing I love this week, but this a feature so I'll stick with it. I'm looking to Hawaii, who played their best game of the year in an overtime upset at Fresno State last week. Meanwhile, Louisiana Tech played their worst game of the year when they were blown out at Boise.

This is a series that has traditionally favored, the home team, perhaps not surprising given the distance between the two schools. Come to think of it, this pick makes no sense. Oh well.

Pick: Louisana Tech 37 Hawaii 35

Mark's picks coming perhaps after he finishes the half marathon today.