Friday, October 17, 2008

Lockdown: Week 8 Edition

By Nate Sandstrom

Early last Saturday I was talking to my buddy Jim Butts and he commented how well I was doing on lockdown. Clearly he was trying to jinx me because I went 1-4 for the weekend. At least that was better than Mark, although he beat me in the Texas-Oklahoma toss-up.

Follow me at your own risk, but I will hope to bounce back. In Denver for a wedding this weekend so you get a rushed edition as I get ready for my flight. I'm banking on more top-ranked teams being upset, and not just because I want to be proved right by putting Penn State #1 this week. To keep that thought going, I'm starting with the upset special:

Mississippi (+375) at Alabama

The Rebels are the best damned 3-3 team in the nation. Their three losses are by a combined 15 points. That close game experience will pay off this week and they will pull their second upset of a Top 10 and previously undefeated team.

Alabama's in the midst of the weakest part of the schedule and this is the perfect spot for them to so complacency. I know I took this same theory in taking Kentucky over 'bama, but get this one in quick, the payoff is falling like a rock.

Pick: Mississippi 31 Alabama 29

Missouri at Texas (-4.5)

Always take the team with their backs against the wall, right? Does that still apply when you're going with a team that hasn't won in Austin since the 1890's? Chalk last week up to a look-ahead game for Missouri and the last century of their trips to Texas as a look-ahead century. Serioulsy though, Missouri is really good and Texas is fat and happy after beating Oklahoma. The Tigers will be motivated to stay in the national title hunt while the 'Horns will have a short stay at #1. Don't worry Texas fans, you should have a crack at the #2 OSU Pokes the next week.

Pick: Missouri 35 Texas 28

Georgia Tech (-2) at Clemson

How did that mid-season coaching change work out for Auburn (the only game we had right here at lockdown) last week? Poor Tommy Bowden? Sure, Georgia Tech was outyardaged by Gardner-Webb and barely won, but chalk that up as a look ahead they still won. Clemson has a new QB, a new coach and Spiller is out.

Pick: Georgia Tech 27 Clemson 13

Minnesota at Chicago (-3)

A-Pete should top 100 yards, but count on the Bears sacking Gus Frerotte at least four times. Devin Hester will torch the Vikes again and I will put Kyle Orton on next week's first edition of MVP Watch.

Pick: Chicago 26 Minnesota 14

No comments: