Friday, September 14, 2007

Lockdown -- Week 2

Well, my locks of the week only went 2-1 last weekend, and even though I hit the Cowboys for a win, I defnitely had the tone of the game wrong. My upset special (10 point or more dog I think will win outright), N.C. State also fell flat after taking an early lead.

Fifty percent won't take you far, but I'll bounce back.

Saturday
Connecticut (-29.5) vs. Temple. The Owls put up a good show against Navy in their opener, but were then runover by Buffalo last weekend. Connecticut is not messing around with weaker teams, beating Duke by 31 and Maine by 38. Expect the Huskies to run up the score again on Saturday.

--Connecticut 48 Temple 7

Louisville (-5.5) at Kentucky. Kentucky QB Dre Woodson has the hype behind him, and the Louisville D is under fire after giving up 42 to Middle Tennessee. The 'ville has also dropped from a -6.5 fav since opening and the 'Cats are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 home games.

But I think the Cardinals will be fired up by the criticism, as if the in-state rivalry wasn't enough. They've won the last four meetings between these schools. Also, note that despite beating Kent St. by 36, the Wildcats only outyardaged them by 31.

--Louisville 45 Kentucky 27

Sunday
Indianapolis (-7.5) at Tennessee. Titans won last meeting, but Colts won previous 7. I expect another big showing. Peyton Manning will probably have a little more success against Tennessee's secondary than David Garrard.

--Indianapolis 31 Tennessee 13


Upset Special
Buffalo (+10/+370) at Pittsburgh. Steelers have covered the last eight meetings of this series. Are the Bills due?

I expect many teams to do to the Browns what Pittsburgh did this week. Super Bowl talk is back in the Steel City and I think they may be looking past the Bills. Hines Ward seems to be more worried about the Patriots videotaping his team than the Bills D.

Buffalo came close to knocking off Denver and I think they will pull the upset this week.

--Buffalo 23 Pittsburgh 20

--Nate Sandstrom

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